Mateo’s Hoop Diary: WNBA Observations at the Olympic break

The WNBA is at a recess until mid-August for the Olympics, but so far, through 62.5% of the season, some ladies have separated themselves from their peers. A former MVP is hellbent on seizing her crown. The rookie class is outstanding, with multiple All-Stars. And tons of people are watching- the All-Star Game on Saturday had its largest audience ever, which was a 305% increase from 2023, and the match between the Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky on June 23 was the most-viewed WNBA game in 23 years, per ESPN Press Room.

Let’s review the difference-makers in the league…

A’ja Wilson is having a season for the ages:

She’s the most dominant force in the league and cannot be stopped with double teams or physical action. Wilson is on pace to have the highest-scoring season in WNBA history, surpassing Jewell Loyd’s 2023 campaign with the Seattle Storm. And she’ll easily outdo Sylvia Fowles’ 2018 rebounding record (404) if she keeps the pace of snagging 12 nightly. Note: the WNBA season was 34 games in 2018 instead of 40 now. Even at a 34-match clip, Wilson is on track to claim the glass crown by a few boards. 

The Las Vegas Aces are a loaded outfit with four stars and last season’s Sixth Woman of the Year winner, Alysha Clark, but they struggled without the help of W’s top playmaker, Chelsea Gray. In that span, the reigning Finals MVP (Wilson) carried the group, but it was to a 6-6 record. It’s unclear how much the voters will punish her for that. Yet, she’s a massive favorite in the sportsbooks to win her third MVP trophy.  DraftKings and FanDuel have her odds at -3000. Caesars Sportsbook has her at -3500.  

On defense, Wilson is a shot blocker, which means she stays in the backline unless caught in a switch or covering an outside option. Still, she can hedge to contest in time, but if her teammates aren’t maneuvering past screens well then Wilson is compromised. 

Wilson is averaging 27.2 points on 52.2% accuracy for the season, including 39.5% from deep, with 12 boards, 2.9 blocks, 1.9 steals and 2.4 assists per game.  

Since Gray’s comeback, her first outing since Oct. 15, 2023 (Game 3 of the Finals), Wilson is putting up 26.4 points on 53% shooting, with 36.4% from 3-point range, 12.4 rebounds, 3.3 blocks, two steals and 2.2 assists. 

Not many guards better than Caitlin Clark: 

Caitlin Clark ended the rookie of the year race in July with her triple-double in a win against the New York Liberty and her 19-assist outing in a loss versus the Dallas Wings. Her helpings output is the new WNBA record, passing Courtney Vandersloot’s 18 against the Indiana Fever on Aug. 31, 2020. The only other players to register a triple-double this season are Alyssa Thomas (2) and Layshia Clarendon (1).

She is the most doubled perimeter player in the league, yet seven ballers ((with at least 20 games played) are logging a higher usage percentage (Sabrina Ionescu, Napheesa Collier, Jewell Loyd, Arike Ogunbowale, Chennedy Carter, A’ja Wilson and Kahleah Copper).

Clark is a superior playmaker to all of them because of her impact on her teammates and she’s the flashiest passer in the W, despite her high turnover count. To boot, the twice AP Player of the Year, is first in assists, first in double-doubles by a guard and third in minutes averaged. 

In transition, Clark will advance upcourt, producing herself or hitting a teammate in stride for an easy basket. Her most effective scoring method is attacking the rim, converting 63.2% of those attempts and that spot is second in her shot diet. Jumpers, pull-ups and step-back looks are taken with higher frequency, but supplied at an ineffectual rate, partly because of how close she is covered. Still, she’s tied for third in the league with Ogunbowale in 3-point baskets (71).

As her rookie campaign has progressed, she’s improved her assist/turnover numbers (2.27 through six games in July). That stat sits at a low 1.47 for the season, yet 99 of her 145 turnovers came from bad passes, per Basketball Reference.

So far, the latest number-one overall pick has been better than advertised, and her work is electrifying. Anyone who doubted her skills was worthy enough to make TEAM USA when the roster was released should review the fundamentals.

Chennedy Carter’s comeback is the best story this season:

The Atlanta Dream drafted Chennedy Carter fourth overall in 2020, but she didn’t last with the club because of conduct issues. Her next stop in Los Angeles ended prematurely for the same reason and she was out of the league in 2023. But this year, Carter is back and she’s been one of the best in the business and is at the top of her squad. 

Coach Teresa Weatherspoon initially had her coming off the bench for the first 12 games and then wised up because no one on the team breaks down a defender like her. The deep shot isn’t one of her weapons, but she supplies 72% of attempts in the restricted area, taking 29.8% of tries from that zone. Also of note: Carter hasn’t been a reserve since June 14, and she’s still second in bench points scored (155), trailing Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (185).

As a starter (12 games), Carter averages an insufficient 30.3 minutes per game. The former Aggie needs more time because she is likely the fastest player in the league with the ball, allowing her to create separation against her matchup without a screen. Her burst also establishes a lethal pick-and-roll ball handler option.

Her top game of the year was a winning effort on July 16 in Las Vegas against the Aces. Carter was the best guard in a game that featured Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray. She scored on backdoor cuts, mid range jumpers, drivebys and fastbreak opportunities.

Not all young people are ready to be professionals when they land a top gig because they are late bloomers, too. Carter is capitalizing on her chance at redemption and becoming the player she was destined to be.

Marina Mabrey on the Connecticut Sun: 

Marina Mabrey asking out of Chicago is an organizational failure because the team was more talented than its record indicated.

Before the exchange that brought Marina Mabrey to the Connecticut Sun for Rachel Banham, Moriah Jefferson, and two first-round picks, the squad had a puncher’s chance to come out of the East. The New York Liberty is still favored, but the Sun is a more formidable rival with extra firepower.

Mabrey’s shooting splits aren’t stellar, as she is more of a wildcard sniper, but she catches lots of attention and sets up her teammates well. A third of her made triples were unassisted, and she led the Sky in assists before the trade, too. 

For Connecticut, the scoring burden is loosened off DeWanna Bonner, Brionna Jones and DiJonai Carrington’s shoulders because of Mabrey’s gravity plus scoring competence. Alyssa Thomas doesn’t have to work as hard to get them involved, which should conserve some of her energy for the fourth quarter as well.

The Sun made the right move to maximize its championship window by bringing in a player not far from All-Star caliber. She might blossom into one playing on a squad as deep and well-coached as Connecticut’s.

Further comments:

Angel Reese is a winning player and an All-Star rookie. She’s a high-level defender, gets others open with screens, limits opponents’ possessions and buys more for her team by pounding the glass. She’ll ascend into the league’s first echelon when she polishes her scoring near the rim and connects on open jumpers regularly. 

Don’t underestimate the Minnesota Lynx. The recent Commissioner’s Cup champs are the top defense and passing unit in the WNBA but are weak on the glass. 

It’s a lost season for the Wings as its record sits at 6-19. Satou Sabally’s shoulder injury has decimated the defense and the offense lacks significant help. Wings games this season are about watching Ogunbowale, who leads the WNBA in minutes (38.4,  field goal attempts (20.1) and steals (2.7), try to drag her team to the finish line. 

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