Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Deandre Ayton is Worth Betting On

Before it was too late, the Suns sobered up and matched Indiana’s offer sheet for Deandre Ayton.  Waiting an entire season after he was eligible for his rookie extension was a waste of time.  It only pissed him off, and now they can’t use him as trade bait to get Kevin Durant out of Brooklyn until Jan. 15, but Phoenix’s center can veto proposals this year. 

Ayton has improved every season of his career.  Considering his abilities as a finisher up to 16 feet away from the rim + his effectiveness guarding the interior, it’s still bewildering that Phoenix never appreciated his value until they were left with no choice.  Without him giving up touches, willingly sacrificing his body to get teammates open, and crashing the glass for extra possessions, the Suns would have never made the Finals in 2021.  

On offense, Ayton has turned into one of the league’s most efficient players, finishing each season in the top 20 in field goal percentage and the last two years in the top 20 in offensive rating.  

His 7-foot stature overwhelms defenders near the rim, making help necessary after the catch.  In the dunker spot, he can jump higher than his matchup and go back up for a close-range shot.

Attacking through pick ‘n’ roll is one of Phoenix’s choice strategies, using it on ¼ of their possessions. With Ayton as the roll man, he scores 5.4 points a night on 64% from the field.  Nonetheless, Ayton is underutilized as the scoring option in screen ‘n’ roll.  Unless the defense sends a weak side shot blocker or clogs the paint, #22’s size and soft touch present an advantage in a league that heavily relies on small-ball.

It’s important to note that Ayton’s activity as a screener buys teammates precious seconds being open while also giving him a small window to get the ball back.  In the regular season, he was fifth in screen assists averaged (5.4), with 11.6 points scored for the team with his help.   

It’s critical for big men to receive a steady diet of touches so all the work that goes towards defending the paint and getting teammates open doesn’t waver.  Twelve attempts a game for Ayton is not enough when he shoots 63.4% from the field, and the right way to play is inside out.  Not the opposite.  

For the Suns’ 2022 playoff run, they finished 10/13 games with more shots coming outside of the paint than in it.  That style of play can hinder big men, and it’s peculiar Phoenix didn’t counter with more of an inside game when Chris Paul couldn’t get to his mid-range shot in Round 2.  Ayton is a mismatch against most players who will defend him. If he bricks from close range, he can snag an offensive rebound unless stuck in poor positioning.  

 There are only five players in the NBA with a higher post-up frequency than Ayton (Robin Lopez, Joel Embiid, Jonas Valanciunas, Jusuf Nurkic, Kristaps Porzingis).  Phoenix’s center is second in that group in percentage of shots 0-3 feet from the basket (33.3) but first in made field goal efficiency in that zone (79.3).  When a player scores that well around the cup, it’s surprising if he misses next to the restricted area.  It might open up extra space on the perimeter if Ayton gets more looks with his back to the basket because of traps or doubles sent his way.  

The danger in focusing the attack from the outside is that it limits second chance opportunities. If a pivot is standing close to the rim while his team is heaving up an excessive amount of  3-pointers, most misses will be long rebounds and out of reach of big men.  

As the Suns’ second line of protection, Ayton was one of the most involved defenders in the league.  Despite missing 24 games in 2021/2022, he still put a hand in front of more attempts than 95% of the NBA with 659 contests. Opponents scored 44.3% of shots with Ayton in front of them.

His averages in blocks don’t jump off the stat sheet but his impact taking away lanes is a premium the Suns couldn’t afford to lose.  

At 24 years old, Ayton is not a finished product.  Big men take longer to develop than guards and forwards, which makes his future promising.  Keeping him around a Hall of Fame playmaker like CP3 and a proven gunslinger in Devin Booker should help expedite the process as long as Ayton isn’t forgotten about on offense.

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