Mateo’s Hoops Diary: The Miami Heat Remain Dangerous

The Miami Heat are going to run it back, and it’s not such a bad thing in the short term. With the latest news that Kevin Durant is staying put in Brooklyn, the only white whale Miami remains interested in is Donovan Mitchell.  But should they give up on that hunt for now?  

The market will be inflated for a long time due to the Rudy Gobert trade that sent five First Round Picks to Utah with four players from Minnesota in exchange for the Frenchman.  Conventional wisdom tells me the Jazz wouldn’t be interested in letting Spida go unless they net a haul like they did trading their big-man. 

There’s a shortlist of players that can go nuclear like Mitchell on offense- Utah doesn’t need to buckle on its asking price in negotiations because their guy is signed for the next three seasons. They already pulled off one historic exchange this summer.  There isn’t a rush to manufacture a second so soon.

The best chance Miami has of getting Spida in uniform is if they sign him when he’s an unrestricted free agent or devise a way to trade for him in two years when he has one season left on his contract.   

The best swap Miami could offer would be Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and two FRPs.  It’s a steep price but likely not enough unless Lowry’s spot is switched for Bam Adebayo, but that should be a dealbreaker.  

Mitchell is a masterful scorer, but he isn’t Dwyane Wade.  The similarities Spida has exhibited attacking the basket are reminiscent of Flash, but committing a trove of assets for a small guard who is only effective on one side of the ball should be a hard pass.  

The Heat have a late-game scoring issue that needs to be remedied, but solutions will likely come internally.  In Game 7s loss at home, anyone not named Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were ineffective on offense.  Boston was keying in Miami’s All-Stars throughout the game, and by the end of the night, their legs were dead.

When watching a team go down as the Heat did in the conference finals, it’s natural for fans or even team employees to want to feel the immediate gratification of improving the specific weakness.   

 It’s feasible the late-game scoring drags are fixed with a healthy Tyler Herro growing into the role of closer or Kyle Lowry having a bounce-back season as the main ball handler. Or even Victor Oladipo recapturing his former ability to get a bucket at will- fingers crossed.  One of Herro, Lowry, or Oladipo will have to be the third option alongside Adebayo and Butler in the Playoffs.

The Heat’s uncertainty at power forward is the team’s primary concern because the Butler era’s window for competing for a title is still open, but there is no telling for how long. He turns 33 on Sept. 14, but he is one of the legitimate difference makers in the NBA.  Miami shouldn’t waste its time on unrealistic options when other improvements are possible to keep Miami as lethal as last season.

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Former Heatle Jae Crowder, currently over in Phoenix, has one year left on his deal.  I doubt the Suns would want to let an effective 3-and-D wing like him walk as a free agent and get nothing back in return.  Perhaps Miami could explore bringing him back for the right price, and if not, next man up.  His tenure as part of the club was brief but integral in their 2020 Finals run. 

Sacramento’s Harrison Barnes is another complementary forward who would fit nicely in the Heat’s rotation.  The Kings are going all-in on the play-in tournament, but if the season goes sideways for them, maybe the Heat could make an enticing proposition for Barnes’ expiring contract before the trade deadline.  

 For now, Tucker’s absence will alter some of Miami’s defensive schemes. He won’t be around to guard the other team’s best perimeter player, be a weak side help defender on opposing drives or be a guy who can switch onto any opponent and bother them.  

When Tucker was a Heatle, Miami was good enough to contend. His efforts boxing out, rebounding, screening, defending, and spacing the floor made him the team’s leatherman multi-tool. Tucker would seldomly get beat defending the ball handler last season.  His instincts and force to stay in front of the rock let other Heat players stick to their matchup without helping.

Caleb Martin is a candidate for the Heat’s starting power forward slot.  He is a solid player, but if he can’t hold opponents in front of him, Miami’s defense could eventually suffer by repeatedly having to send help when Martin is caught in a mismatch.  Martin, who stands at 6’5, will likely guard a bigger or stronger player before a switch. To his credit, his defensive field goal percentage last year was 41.8% on 10.7 attempts by the opponent.

Yet, offensively, Martin at the four is practicable. His athleticism is a plus, and he is a comparable deep shooter to Tucker.  At the end of a cut, Martin has enough pop to attack from above on a dunk.  His willingness to go for the slam should grant him more trips to the free throw line in 2022/2023.  Playing next to defenders like Adebayo and Butler possibly will increase Martin’s transition opportunities where he can use his speed getting downhill to Miami’s advantage.  

Last season, Tucker logged 609 more minutes than Martin.  In that extra time, PJ hit 16 more triples than his former teammate, on a slightly higher rate (.2%) and volume (.1%).

Getting the starting nod should see an uptick in 3-point attempts for Martin and, if converted around a similar efficiency, will provide ample room for Miami’s cutters to attack the cup. 

If plugged in at the four, Martin’s role as a screener will be more important than ever to get his teammates and himself open.  It would utilize his explosiveness to run actions for him as the roll man looking to score after a screen.  

It was first reported on Five on the Floor, Miami was comfortable not signing a free agent four after Tucker’s departure because they view Martin as a better player than any on the market.  It’s possible the Heat are right, and there won’t be much drop-off in two-way potency in 2022/2023.

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