Miami Dolphins still need to draw the line(s)

Consider me a bit confused as to what the aim of the 2019 Miami Dolphins season is.

Yes, I understand the mantra of “develop the young guys”, “see the growth from Rosen”, blah blah blah. I am talking more in the order of winning or losing? It is no secret that they have a war chest to be envied for 2020, and I would be lying if I didn’t say that the prospects of the 2020 off-season have me more excited than at any other time in recent Dolphins history, but they are leaving themselves a ton of work to do that will eat into those 2020 assets.

The illustrious Pat Riley famously once said “No rebounds, no rings.”

Well, I have a catchy saying of my own. “No lines, no wins.”

This team’s likely weakness rests on the offensive and defensive lines, and they did little to address either this offseason. In fact, they actually weakened each unit further. Now, I won’t get into all the analysis out there that says the Dolphins will be awful this year, because truth be told, most of the value from it, is as emergency toilet paper if printed out. In the real world, we have hard evaluations of players on either side of the ball, and this Dolphins team is counting on a lot of hopes and wishes.

This has Miami as the only team being an underdog in all 16 games, probabilistic win total of 3.7 wins, 32nd in points scored (18.1 ppg), and 30th in points allowed (26.3 ppg). The next worst teams have probabilistic win totals of 5.0 or greater. @5ReasonsSports @3YardsPerCarry https://t.co/PLpPu9lRT0

— Chris Kouffman (@ckparrot) May 18, 2019

So let’s get into the two units as presently constituted. The defensive line on the face of it, is not so bad in the interior. You drafted Christian Wilkins at #13 this year, and he figures to be a good performer for years to come. In Godchaux, Taylor and Spence, you have a decent, and professional group. Dare I say, I like that group more than most, and I don’t think it’s crazy to think that the bulk of that unit will be cornerstones of this team going forward.

Then we get to Defensive end. Tank Carradine. Jonathan Woodard. Nate Orchard. Really? What you have there is a series of “Scratch off Tickets” (as was coined on the 3YPC Podcast) and no real solutions. But “Our system won’t rely on too many Ends or D-Linemen for that matter, so the deficiency may be hidden.” Says the optimist. Ok, that’s legitimate, but pass rush pressure is still a thing in this league, and they are seeking to generate it with Charles Harris, Andrew Van Ginkel and Jayrone Elliott. One probable draft bust, one draft scratch off ticket, and a shot in the dark from the AAF. Not good.

It stands to reason however that they did try to mitigate the problem on the Defensive line by making a play for Trey Flowers, were rebuffed due to “the numbers not working out” ( we reported as such) and they quickly moved on to fill the holes with what are essentially a series of low risk, high reward, shots in the dark. I can respect that. But you must understand that the risk as represented here, is losing, A lot of it, and the need to deploy assets that you have hoarded for 2020 to fix the problems you created in 2019.

We can confirm that the Dolphins were indeed "In" on DE Trey Flowers. An Offer was made, and summarily rejected as "Not Competitive". Dolphins were essentially "out" on Flowers last night.

— Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) March 11, 2019

Which brings us to the Offensive Line. It was pretty evident that it was a rather weak group in 2018, so we all knew that it was a priority in 2019. So what was done to improve this unit? They allowed steady performer at right tackle Ja’Wuan James to walk. Added Michael Dieter at left guard with a 3rd round pick, Isaiah Prince with a late round pick and then picked off some guys off the street to compete elsewhere. Then, with the acquisition of Josh Rosen came the realization that an effort should be made to get a veteran option at Right Tackle, and that brought us former Buffalo Bill Jordan Mills.

If you want an evaluation on Jordan Mills, just type “Jordan Mills is bad” in your search bar on twitter, and you begin to get the picture. To put it mildly, he is not good. So let’s move on to the rest of the line. Jesse Davis is coming off a poor season at Right Guard in 2018. Daniel Kilgore is coming off injury and some poor play, but there is still hope that he can regain the form that made him an attractive acquisition in the first place. Michael Dieter is an unknown out of Wisconsin, but the hopes are that he can slide right in and perform. Chris Reed has some good tape from Jacksonville, but has never been consistent enough to hold a starting job. Laremy Tunsil, we don’t worry about. So on this unit, we are back to wishing and hoping that if this goes right, and if that goes right, then we are gonna be all right ..etc…get the picture?

The “hope” here is that with Offensive Line Coach Pat Flaherty and Analyst Dave DeGuglielmo, “coaching them up’”, improvement is assured. Wishful thinking in my opinion, but it does have merit. This thread by my podcast-mate Chris Kouffman explains:

IF you believe Dolphins could be better than most think, really does start up front. Over last 13 years, PFF has given the Run Blocking of teams OL Coach Pat Flaherty worked for an average ranking of 12.2, with Dave DeGuglielmo’s teams also averaging a 12.2 rank. @3YardsPerCarry

— Chris Kouffman (@ckparrot) May 21, 2019

So what’s the beef overall? My fear is that the War chest of 2020, ($100 million in cap space, 2 picks in each round except the 1st) will be invaded to fix the issues they had every opportunity to fix this off-season. Edge, Defensive End, Offensive Line. This is without stating the obvious, which is that you are not exactly setting up 2nd year QB Josh Rosen up to succeed behind this offensive line. Remember that Josh Rosen succeeding also validates an asset you spent for him (2nd round pick).

Maybe my fears are not founded and they hit “BINGO” on many fronts this season. Then the team is set up for a run at Championships if they use their hoard of assets wisely. If not, you may be looking at the 2020 off-season as a time they are forced to use to make up for the mistakes and gambles taken these last few months.

Let’s root for “BINGO”.