Miami Heat Struggles: Can Erik Spoelstra Turn It Around?

“I’ll get to work, the staff will get to work, we’ll do what we need to do. I promise we’re going to correct this” Erik Spoelstra on the Miami Heat’s struggles. The Miami Heat sit at a 25-28 record with 29 games to go (9th in the East). This season has been full of drama, on and off the court. Off the court we have the Jimmy Butler drama, on the court we have the constant inconsistencies, and the inability to close out games. Many blame the talent of the roster, while many others point to head coach Erik Spoelstra. The belief within the organization is that there is enough to win (as always) but the question remains can they turn it around?

Remaining Schedule

The Miami Heat have the 6th easiest schedule remaining according to Tankathon, and are five games back from the East’s fourth seed (Miami’s Schedule). On paper, this should be an advantage, with many of their upcoming matchups against inferior opponents. However, this season has proven that Miami cannot take any game for granted. Their tendency to play down to competition and blow large leads has been a key issue all year.

By the Numbers

A major concern for the Heat has been their inability to close out games. They have suffered eight losses this season after leading by double digits in the second half, highlighting a critical weakness in their late-game execution. This ongoing issue has left them two games below .500 and threatens their playoff hopes as they struggle to find a reliable crunch-time scorer. Miami ranks 25th in clutch field goal percentage (39.0%) and has a minus-0.7 net rating in clutch situations, further underscoring their late-game struggles. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have been the team’s go-to options in crunch time, but neither has consistently delivered in closing moments (26 clutch games 11-15 record).

Miami has also recorded three single-digit fourth quarters this season, the most in the league. Their struggles in maintaining leads have been evident in games where they have blown substantial advantages, including:

• Up 22, 11:35 left 4Q vs ORL
• Up 17, 7:45 left 4Q vs SAC
• Up 16, 8:40 left 3Q vs OKC
• Up 15, 2:53 left 3Q vs PHX
• Up 13, 7:57 left 3Q vs NYK
• Up 8, 2:06 left OT vs DET
• Up 5, 1:11 left 4Q vs SAC
• Up 2, 1.1 left OT vs DET

Missed Opportunities

Had the Heat secured just a handful of these blown leads, they would be in a much stronger position in the Eastern Conference. Instead of sitting at 25-28, they could potentially be 33-20, which would place them in the top four of the standings and within striking distance of home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Instead of sitting at 25-28, they could easily be several games above .500, contending for a top four seed. These losses not only affect their record but also their morale and confidence heading into the postseason push.

What Needs to Change

One of Miami’s biggest winning factors this season has been rebounding. The numbers are glaring:

• 12-4 record when out-rebounding opponents
• 10-21 record when being outrebounded
• Ranked 18th in total rebounds per game

Despite this, Miami has recently leaned into a two-big lineup, utilizing Bam Adebayo and rookie Kel’el Ware together more frequently. While this adjustment shows an effort to address rebounding concerns, the Heat still need more consistency on the boards, especially against more physical teams.

Another issue has been shooting. Miami has endured prolonged shooting slumps throughout the season, which has made it difficult to close out games. Miami ranks 24th in the league with 109.8 points per game, 22nd in field goal percentage (45.4), and 13th in the league in three-point percentage (36%). There is hope that the offensive production can stabilize. However, if Miami is serious about making a push, they will need better ball movement and more consistent shot-making from beyond the arc.

The Benefit to Losing

It’s rare for a Pat Riley-led team to embrace any form of tanking, and Miami is unlikely to change that philosophy now. However, with two first-round picks this year (their own and Golden State’s) and a stacked draft class headlined by Cooper Flagg, there is an argument to be made for prioritizing draft positioning.

The Heat’s recent draft success has been impressive:

• Kel’el Ware (20) — 2024 No. 15 pick
• Bam Adebayo (27) — 2017 No. 14 pick
• Nikola Jovic (21) — 2022 No. 27 pick
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. (23) — 2023 No. 18 pick
• Tyler Herro (24) — 2019 No. 13 pick

This track record shows that Miami’s front office has the ability to find and develop talent, even outside the top 10. If they were to land a lottery pick this year, it could significantly bolster their young core. That being said, the Heat’s culture is built on winning, and a deep playoff run would be invaluable for the development of their younger players.

I’m Never an Advocate for Tanking

Tanking has never been the Miami Heat way, though some argue that prioritizing draft positioning could help them secure a high-upside prospect for the future. While Miami traditionally values competing over rebuilding, the debate remains whether short-term struggles could lead to long-term gains. The experience gained from a gritty playoff push could be far more beneficial than a higher draft pick. Players like Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, and Kel’el Ware would only benefit from the high-pressure moments that come with meaningful basketball in April and May. If Miami can figure out their rebounding woes and regain consistency in their shooting, they are more than capable of climbing back into the top six of the Eastern Conference.

Miami returns to the court this Friday in Toronto (2/21). The Heat must decide: should they go all-in for a playoff push, or should they prioritize their future by focusing on development and draft positioning? More importantly, who is to blame for their struggles? Is it a roster construction issue, coaching decisions, or player execution? Heat fans, where do you stand? More importantly, will Erik Spoelstra figure it out? With Erik Spoelstra at the helm and a history of defying the odds, don’t be surprised if this team finds a way to flip the script once again.

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