The Miami Heat’s March Madness

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The month of March has brought quite the change of fortune for the Ballers on Biscayne. The Heat entered the month with a 27-34 record and sitting at 10th in a weak Eastern Conference. They were coming off a February that saw the team go 3-9 including bad blowout losses at home to the Thunder and Pistons. #TankSzn was in full effect. However, the end of February saw the Heat pull off a miracle win against the defending champion Warriors, thanks to an incredible buzzer beater by the one and only Dwyane Wade. Since then, the team is playing with a new lease on life and they’ve put it all together in March.

18-19 MIAMI HEAT BEFORE MARCH MARCH
RECORD
27-34
11-4
PLUS/MINUS PER GAME
-1.1
4.5
OFFENSIVE RATING
106.6
108.1
DEFENSIVE RATING
107.8
104.1
NET RATING
-1.2
4.0

Then again, Spoelstra-led teams have a pretty consistent habit of transforming themselves into a problem come spring time.

Let’s dig a little deeper into how the Heat have turned it around the past few weeks and who the difference makers have been.

March By the Numbers

Miami Net Rating Leaders

(via NBA STATS)

1. Kelly Olynyk | + 11.6 in 435 minutes

2. Justise Winslow | + 10.6 in 208 minutes

3. Bam Adebayo | + 10.4 in 402 minutes

4. Dion Waiters | + 6.3 in 410 minutes

5. Josh Richardson | + 5.9 in 467 minutes

Miami’s Best 2-Man Lineup Net Ratings

(minimum 100 minutes played)

1. Kelly Olynyk & Josh Richardson | +15.6 in 291 minutes

2. Kelly Olynyk & Justise Winslow | +15.5 in 165 minutes

3. Dion Waiters & Justise Winslow | +15.4 in 140 minutes

4. Justise Winslow & Josh Richardson | +15.1 in 138 minutes

5. Derrick Jones Jr. & Bam Adebayo | +14.4 in 174 minutes

Miami’s Most Used 5-Man Lineups

1. Justise Winslow | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Kelly Olynyk | Bam Adebayo

89 Minutes • 124.6 Offensive Rating • 97.8 Defensive Rating • 26.8 Net Rating

The New Starting Lineup (before Justise and Josh went down with injuries) had been dominating opponents with an inspired offensive attack that has been one of Miami’s best offensive units EVER. This lineup actually has a 121.4 ORTG in 121 minutes the entire season, and if they don’t play together again this season, would be the 2nd best offensive unit (min. 100 MP) in Spoelstra’s tenure as Head Coach. Back in 2012-13, the Heat had a 124.6 ORTG in the 112 minutes that Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh shared the court.

As much fun as that last paragraph was, even at 121 minutes we are still very much in the realm of Small Sample Size Theater, and I bring that up because of this incredible stat: all 4 players that have taken a 3 while this lineup is on the court are shooting 42% or better from behind the arc.

Name Minutes FG3M FG3A 3pt FG% Shot Quality eFG% TS%
Kelly Olynyk 121 9 13 69.2% 0.55 81.7% 87.1%
Justise Winslow 121 10 17 58.8% 0.54 66.7% 67.0%
Josh Richardson 121 8 19 42.1% 0.5 62.8% 60.7%
Dion Waiters 121 11 21 52.4% 0.57 54.4% 55.1%
Bam Adebayo 121 0 0 0.0% 0.56 73.3% 75.9%
(Shot Quality and Lineup Breakdown Data via PBPstats.com)

There is no way that Dion, Justise, and Kelly will continue shooting above 50% from behind the arc. That will come back down to Earth. However, it is encouraging that every player but Richardson has a Shot Quality well above the league average of 0.52. Shot Quality’s value shows you the expected effective field goal percentage on the type of shots a player takes. For example, a wide open 3-pointer is going to have a much higher Shot Quality than a guarded mid-range jumper. This lineup is doing a great job of getting high percentage looks and they are capitalizing.

Fun Fact: This Heat lineup has made 3x as many corner 3’s (18) as the 5-man lineup that has the second most made corner 3’s (6) on the team.

2. Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Derrick Jones Jr. | Kelly Olynyk | Bam Adebayo

80 minutes • 109.0 Offensive Rating • 96.8 Defensive Rating • 12.2 Net Rating

The Winslow-Less New Starting Lineup has also been doing a good job of beating teams down with Derrick Jones Jr. injected into the New Starting Lineup in place of the injured Justise Winslow who has been dealing with a bruised thigh the past few weeks. While the team wasn’t blowing teams out to the same extent as it’s predecessor, this lineup in particular really clamps down on the defensive end as they’ve held opponents to 44% eFG, which is 8% lower than their opponents expected shot quality, via pbpstats.com. They’ve also held opponents to 56% shooting at the rim (7% below the league average).

Offensively, they’ve been helped stay afloat thanks to Dion Waiters being 9 of 17 from 3 and holding a robust 75.8 TS% while this lineup has been on the court. The other surprising contribution? Bam Adebayo has shot 10 of 17 from mid-range during their minutes. Bam forcing defenders to respect his shot will help open things up offensively for this young group.

Defensively, the team just plays much better when they are using guys like Derrick Jones Jr. and James Johnson at the 3 instead of the 4. This gives the Heat more length, size, and athleticism to make things difficult for opposing offenses.

3. Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside

57 minutes • 88.9 Offensive Rating • 107.3 Defensive Rating • -18.4 Net Rating

The #FlashMob with Richardson saw it’s struggles in March, specifically on the offensive end. Despite having a pair of very capable handlers in Goran and Dwyane, this lineup has been let down by shooting struggles from Dragic (16 points on 24 FGA), Richardson (14 points on 19 FGA), and Johnson (10 points on 14 FGA), as well as Dragic (0.51 SQ) and Johnson (0.47 SQ) having below average shot qualities, which implies there have been a lot of tough shots in those attempts. James in particular has struggled to provide spacing during their minutes, as he’s shot 1 of 8 from behind the arc.

(Not so) Fun Fact: His lineup has yet to make a corner 3 this season on 7 attempts.

4. Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Josh Richardson | Derrick Jones Jr. | Hassan Whiteside

36 minutes • 94.6 Offensive Rating • 106.5 Defensive Rating • -11.9 Net Rating

The same lineup as before with Jones Jr. replacing James Johnson at the 4 fared a bit better, though still having struggles offensively. A couple of things stood out about this lineup in regards to those offensive woes: This lineup is shooting 23% from behind the arc as a unit, and they are taking an unusually high amount of mid-range jumpers during these minutes. 75% of Richardson’s attempts came from mid-range, where he shot 33% FG. 53% of Wade’s attempts came for mid-range, where he shot 40% FG. 44% of Dragic’s attempts came from mid-range, where he shot 42% FG. I’m not one of those people that says NEVER TAKE A MID-RANGE JUMPER like some of the MoreyBall purists, but I do believe that leaning into them too heavily is not good for your offense, and it plays out that way here.

5. Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Derrick Jones Jr. | Kelly Olynyk | Bam Adebayo

36 minutes • 117.5 Offensive Rating • 103.8 Defensive Rating • 13.7 Net Rating

Following the injuries to Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson, this became the starting lineup that Miami turned to once they lost both of their minutes leaders. It is the most used lineup that featured the 7-11 attack of Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters and has brought back memories of the 30-11 run from a few seasons ago. The offense is humming with this unit as Jones Jr. and Adebayo are living at the rim, combining for 13 of 16 FG around the basket. Goran Dragic is absolutely dealing while this lineup is playing, as he has 11 assists in those 36 minutes, with all 11 assists leading to either 3-pointers or baskets at the rim. Goran’s lob game has really come alive in recent weeks, which has always been a bit of a problem area for him. Another sign of a crisp offense: 75% of the baskets scored by this lineup have been assisted. Given that the Heat are only shooting 37% from behind the arc in these minutes, this could prove to be a sustainable lineup that Miami can lean on as they try to sneak into the playoffs.

Bam Adebayo – Unleashed

It’s not a coincidence that the Heat turning their season around began the very night that Bam Adebayo was inserted into the starting lineup against the Warriors. Bam played undoubtedly the best basketball of his career in March, and it’s not very surprising that it’s come in the first full month that Bam has started in his career. It could not have been an easy decision to replace Whiteside with Adebayo, considering Hassan is having one of the best seasons of his career.

Both big men have things in common that make them valuable: length, verticality, rim protection, and rebounding. However, there are a few things that Bam does that separate him from the Great Wall of Whiteside. Offensively, Bam brings more speed and activity to the role of screener and roller. Per NBA Stats, Bam’s average speed on offense is 6% faster than Hassan, meaning he covers ground faster and helps the offense get initiated, considering Miami’s propensity for running the pick and roll. It shows in the screen assist stats, as Bam is creating 11 screen assists points per 36 minutes compared to the 9.5 screen assists points Hassan created per 36 minutes. Part of that added value comes from the fact that 78% of Bam’s assists come either at the rim or from 3-point land, which is 10% higher than Hassan’s percentage of “Moreyball” assists.


The other significant difference is their mentality regarding passing, and I can’t find a better way to represent the difference than this: In about 100 more minutes played this season, Bam has generated more than 3x as many points as Hassan via assists (422 vs 125). While Bam was doing a lot of that damage via hand offs early in his career, we’ve seen a lot more dynamic passes in recent weeks.

In the first clip, you see Bam receive an entry pass at the elbow from Justise, and then the second he recognizes that both his man and Derrick’s man have turned their attention to him, he makes the smart pass to Jones Jr. for the quality look at the rim. In the second clip you see Kelly with the nice entry pass into the post. Bam begins to establish position in the post against Allen until he feels Harris cheating off of Winslow trying to create a turnover, and makes him pay for it the second he is committed with a quick kick out to Justise for an open three. Next you see Bam’s court vision in action as he quickly recognizes that Winslow has sealed off the nearest defender to Dwyane, who was never picked up in transition by the Raptors. Wide open splash down for Wade. The last clip best shows off Bam’s passing mentality, as he knew Justise was wide open even before receiving the pass and he instantly whipped the Richardson pass right out to Winslow for the open 3. These quick instinctual decisions are a big part of what separates Bam from his predecessor at the center position.

Defensively, Bam is a very different defender from Hassan. I’m not sure that Bam will ever be the rim protector that Hassan is, though very few players in the league can make that claim. What makes Bam a valuable defender is that he is more suited to go against small-ball lineups due to his ability to defend guards and athletic wings well in situations where the team is switching defensively.

Bam just eats up space defensively and makes it that much harder for opposing team’s to get clean looks whenever they are trying to get Bam’s assignment involved offensively. Bam is holding both pick and roll ball handlers as well as pick and roll roll men to 0.75 points per possessions, which is in the 85th percentile in the NBA in both metrics according to Synergy Sports. The other area where Bam makes a substantial impact is in transition defense due to his ability to get back quickly. The Heat allow almost 3 points per 100 possessions less in transition when Adebayo is on the court compared to Hassan.

When he brings all these things together, Bam Adebayo is a force to be reckoned with, as he showed in a big road win over the Wizards.

At 21 years old, Bam is just scratching the surface of his potential and now that he’s been thrown into the starting role, he is only going to get more reps to continue adding to his game. Just don’t forget who was on this hill from the beginning.

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