Miami’s Nightmare: The Worst-Case Scenario in the Jimmy Butler Saga

An idea often thrown around in the Jimmy Butler saga is now just days away from becoming a reality. As the NBA undergoes a seismic shift with blockbuster trade after blockbuster trade, Butler remains a member of the Miami Heat. However, with reports surfacing that Butler won’t sign an extension with the Golden State Warriors, his list of potential landing spots is shrinking along with Miami’s time to move him. With the NBA constantly evolving, other teams will continue making moves, further increasing the urgency for Miami’s front office while inching them closer to their worst-case scenario.

The February 6th trade deadline at 3:00 PM Eastern looms large, and the question remains: Will Jimmy Butler be moved, and if so, where?

Potential Landing Spots

Phoenix Suns

A move to Phoenix remains one of the most plausible outcomes for Butler, but it comes with a major obstacle—Bradley Beal would need to waive his no-trade clause. Beal holds the key to any potential deal, as his contract is the most logical piece to match Butler’s salary.

However, this trade would likely require at least one additional team to facilitate the deal, given Miami’s preference for young assets, draft picks, and players on expiring contracts, over veterans on hefty contracts. Would Phoenix be willing to part with depth pieces or future picks to make the move work?

Dallas Mavericks (Long Shot)

With the shocking departure of Luka Dončić in a blockbuster trade for Anthony Davis, the Mavericks have pivoted toward a defense-first identity. general manager Nico Harrison made it clear that Dallas is in win-now mode, telling ESPN:

“I believe that defense wins championships. I believe that getting an All-Defensive center and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance. We’re built to win now and in the future.”

Jimmy Butler fits that mold perfectly. He’s a proven two-way star with playoff experience and a defensive mindset, making him an ideal partner for Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis. The question for Dallas is whether they are willing to part with the right combination of assets to meet Miami’s asking price. Would the Heat entertain a deal involving young talent like Jaden Hardy or P.J Washington? Could Miami squeeze out draft compensation to sweeten the return?

While several teams have been linked to Butler, Phoenix remains the most realistic landing spot.

Worst-Case Scenario for Miami

This is where things get tricky for the Heat. If Miami fails to move Butler before the deadline, he holds all the leverage heading into the offseason. Butler has a $52.4 million player option for 2025, and his decision could create a nightmare scenario for Miami.

If he opts in, the Heat would be stuck paying a 36-year-old Butler on a massive contract, limiting their ability to reshape the roster. Additionally, Butler’s desire to leave means Miami could find itself in the same predicament next season. If he opts out, Miami risks losing him for nothing in free agency, but also at least ends the Jimmy Butler saga. Given Butler’s reputation for doing things on his terms, opting in could be his way of sticking it to the Miami front office after months of trade speculation.

This uncertainty forces the Heat into a dilemma:

1. Trade Butler now and recoup assets, even if it means straying from their preferred deal structure by taking on long-term contracts.
2. If the Heat hold onto Butler, they risk being forced into a difficult situation where he opts in using his leverage or lose him for nothing.

To make matters worse, two of Miami’s potential 2026 free-agent targets have already been moved and are on track to sign long-term deals elsewhere (Doncic and Fox). This makes moving Butler now even more crucial—Miami must decide whether to prioritize flexibility for future moves or maximize its current assets.

With the trade deadline fast approaching, the Heat’s front office is running out of time. One thing is certain: whatever happens next will shape the franchise for years to come. The time is now for Pat Riley and the front office to step up as the trade deadline rapidly approaches.