Mission Impossible: Breaking Down the Dolphins’ Path to the Postseason

The Miami Dolphins made the decision this week to stand pat during Tuesday’s trade deadline, ultimately opting neither to trade for or away impact players. If one were to listen to the team, however, one thing would be clear: This is a roster and a coaching staff that believes they are still competing for a spot in the playoffs this season. As unrealistic as that may seem to the fanbase-embittered by a 2-6 start, or an outside observer, this is the path they have chosen, and no amount of complaining about said path will change it. The path to the postseason, however, is a slim one, like tightrope suspended in the air between skyscrapers, slim. There are a couple facts that the Dolphins can take solace in, in undertaking this perilous journey, though, like the fact that the AFC is in a very weak position this year featuring a wild card race that contains the Steelers, who are very likely in barring a surprising collapse, but two remaining spots to be fought over featuring the likes of the Broncos, the Chargers, the Bengals, the Colts and the Jets. As well as the fact that the Dolphins have the second easiest strength of schedule remaining with opponents’ combined win percentage reaching a paltry .405. Let’s take a dive into that schedule, shall we? 

Week 10 @ Los Angeles Rams: W

The first test for the playoff push will come on Monday night in Los Angeles versus the Rams, a team that is no stranger to overcoming slow starts, as in 2023, they started 3-6 before finishing 7-1 over their remaining eight games and making the postseason at 10-7, and in 2024 are now 4-4, and winners of three straight following a 1-4 start through their first five games. The Rams feature a dynamic offense headed up by a still borderline elite Matthew Stafford at Quarterback and a trio of skill position players that can match the top three of any offense in Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. For the purpose of this exercise, however, the Dolphins will be given a win. The Dolphins’ offense has been slowly building up over the last couple of weeks to the point that they feel on the verge of an explosion, and facing off with a young Rams defense that is 28th in opponents yards per play so far in 2024, this is a prime spot for it. The defensive side of the ball is where the challenge emerges for the Miami Dolphins, however, as over the last two weeks they have allowed 28 points, and 30 points, respectively to the Arizona Cardinals and the Buffalo Bills. The flip side of this is that reinforcements seem to be on the way in a relative hurry, and with the likes of Kader Kohou, Jevon Holland and Zach Sieler expected to suit up on Monday night in Los Angeles, the defense will be improved just enough to allow the Dolphins to come away with the victory on Monday night. Record: 3-6

Week 11 vs. Los Vegas Raiders: W

Now, this is where momentum can really get going for the Dolphins, following a hypothetical win versus the Rams, they get a Raiders team at home that does not have much to play for at this point, on top of that, the return of Bradley Chubb is looming in the background, This could be a soft landing spot to bring him back into the fold. If so, the Dolphins defense could finally start to hit its stride this week to add to a Dolphins offense that would be really rolling at this point. 

Record: 4-6

Week 12 vs Patriots: W

In week 12, the Dolphins will face off with the Patriots at home, having already beaten New England on the road during Tagovailoa’s absence. Both of these teams will be much different come week 12, though. As Tua will be behind center for the Dolphins in this one, while Drake Maye has taken the mantle up at Quarterback for the Patriots since their last meeting, to pretty solid success thus far, if we’re being honest. However, this is a Patriots team that is not good, not defensively, not offensively, and with the Dolphins offense starting to hit its stride, as well as a defense that should be jelling with Bradley Chubb back in the lineup, the Dolphins should cruise at home versus the Patriots in this one. 

Record: 5-6

Week 13 @ Green Bay Packers: L

Week 13 takes the Dolphins up to Green Bay on Thanksgiving night to do battle with the Green Bay Packers in what is a double whammy of bad omens for the Dolphins, a prime time game that is also likely to be played in less than ideal weather. While I believe that this one can be made close by a Dolphins run game better equipped to succeed in games with poor weather conditions, ultimately,the Dolphins come up short as a defense that has not forced many turnovers over the course of the season are unable to turn over the turnover prone Jordan Love, and so on Thanksgiving night, the Dolphins get sent back to Miami still hungry for a victory. Record: 5-7

Week 14 vs. NY Jets: W

In week 14, the Dolphins have their first of two annual matchups with the New York Jets, this one coming in Miami Gardens to take on Aaron Rodgers and company. These are two teams hoping to have similar trajectories at this point, however with the Jets having a (slightly) more difficult schedule leading into this game, the Jets could be coming in with a 4-8 record, largely killing any postseason dreams for Gang Green, and with the mercurial Aaron Rodgers under center for these Jets, the landing gear may be coming off at this point. The Dolphins will need a victory in this one, with Tua continuing his strong play at this point with an offense that has its full arsenal and a line that has been much improved since mid season, as well as a defense that should only improve as they get healthier. Record: 6-7

Week 15 @ Houston Texans: W

Now, undoubtedly, this is the most ambitious victory of the Dolphins’ bid to save the season to this point, however, a key point: the Houston Texans play inside of a dome, this is not the Miami Dolphins going to Green Bay or Buffalo in December, this is Miami playing a team on the road in an atmosphere that benefits greatly their offense. While the defense should, and probably will struggle to contain the Texans offense, CJ Stroud has not yet been quite as sharp as he was last season to this point, and at this point I have the Dolphins track team on offense just barely eking out a victory over the Texans in Houston to get themselves back to .500 heading into a pivotal three game stretch likely to determine their playoff fate in 2024. Record: 7-7

Week 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers: W

Week 16 sees the San Francisco 49ers fly across the country to Miami in a sequel to 2021’s student-master matchup which saw Kyle Shanhan come up victorious in San Francisco over the Dolphins. The Niners will undoubtedly be a stronger team than they appear now after welcoming back arguably the league’s best offensive weapon in running back Christian McCaffrey and having him back in the fold for a few weeks at this point. The Niners defense, however, is not quite as sharp as the one that stifled the Dolphins offense at Levi Stadium in 2021, and combined with a flight across three time zones, the Dolphins pick up another signature victory to regain full control of their destiny. Record: 8-7

Week 17 @ Cleveland Browns: W

Week 17 takes Miami up to Cleveland in a game which will once again test Miami’s ability to compete in cold weather games, however, this time around they will be playing a team in the Cleveland Browns that is likely to be tanking for their next quarterback at this point with Deshaun Watson having suffered a season-ending Achilles injury earlier in the season. The Browns, having sold off Amari Cooper and Za’Darius Smith already this season, are a much lesser roster than the one that entered the 2024 season for Cleveland. While this one may present major trap game potential for Tua Tagovailoa and company, I am placing this one cautiously, but firmly in the ‘W’ column. Record: 9-7

Week 18 @ New York Jets: W

The Dolphins closing matchup of the 2024 season sees them head to East Rutherford, New Jersey to face their most hated rival in a potentially make or break matchup with the Jets. This is one that could potentially go either way as it is likely to be a cold weather game versus a team that would love nothing more to play spoiler for the Miami Dolphins, but this is a game in which the Dolphins run game will have to win the day for Miami behind the three headed monster at running back of De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jaylen Wright. Defensively, the Dolphins will have to generate pressure against a Jets offensive line that has been susceptible to allowing Aaron Rodgers to be taken to the ground, if the Dolphins wish to complete the comeback, they must go through the Jets. Record: 10-7

As unlikely as it may be, if the Dolphins wish to make the postseason, and that is their stated goal, it will take winning eight of their last nine games to leave little doubt. While improbable, the schedule does allow for it if all breaks right for the Miami Dolphins. This is a group that believes, especially now healthier than they have been almost all season, they are better than the 2-6 record they have accrued to this point. This final nine games is where they will have to prove it if they wish to make this anything other than a lost year in a sea of lost years in the last two decades plus.