GUTS CHECK: Balanced attacks, Robinson rolling, Sixers ahead

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won vs Detroit 117-108
  • Won at Cleveland 108-97
  • Won vs New Orleans 109-94

Taking Care of Business

Last week we discussed the need for the Heat to emerge 6-1 or 5-2 in this next 7 game stretch. A 3-0 undefeated week has them tracking nicely to accomplish that feat.

And wow, has this been fun to watch. The ball zipping around on offense, finishing possessions with swished threes, forcing turnovers that lead to more buckets, has made this 9-3 more entertaining than maybe 9-3 should feel. The team just looks, interacts and performs as cohesively as any group has since the Big 3 era. That’s a big deal.

Balanced Attack

Last week, we saw quality contributions from pretty much everyone. Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo – the list goes on and on. Actually, wait a minute, do not pass go, click on this link to read The Launching Pad by Nekias Duncan. No, seriously, abort this column and read TLP.  We are lucky to have him breaking down Miami Heat basketball. Nekias is a beast.

I think we can all agree that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been the two main pillars for this team so far. That is such a welcome sight. It can be argued that this duo has been the most effective two-way duo in the entire Eastern Conference.

 

Conceptually at least, Justise Winslow has been the most viable candidate to complete a trio that would complement each other gracefully.

As we know, (even though it feels like we really don’t know very much) Justise Winslow is still out with a concussion. This has forced others to continually step up.

There is something to be said for the Heat’s early season reality. The third wheel has been unpredictable moment to moment, never mind game to game. It has always been someone different depending on the matchups. One night it’s Nunn, next it’s Dragic. Tyler Herro here, Chris Silva there.

This feels more sustainable when you consider it isn’t solely based on one player carrying the load or the team shooting the lights out at an unbelievable clip. I know it sounds cliché but this is a prototypical team effort. Amazing what happens when one of the best coaches in the league gets a roster that fits.

Player to Watch

Duncan Robinson is further along than I think any of us could have predicted. Uneven play to start the preseason and the first week of the regular season had Robinson as a player that many Heat fans called to be removed from the rotation.

However, it appears Robinson is in this rotation to stay. His combination of deadly shooting, size and passable defense have proven to be a net positive.

Team sources have maintained to me since before Opening Night that they were prepared to find minutes for Robinson, they see him as a player that can have a Jason Kapono like gravitational pull that helps surrounding scoring threats.

Although he may never get to the 49-50% from deep as Kapono did in his short Heat stint, Robinson is currently attempting double the amount per game (5.8 v. 3.1) and shooting 54% from the corners. If Robinson can provide the type of gravity that players like Kapono and Ellington have in years past, on a team that shares the ball like this one, it may prove to be an indispensable safety valve all season.

In 28 MPG last week Robinson averaged 12.3 ppg, going 9/21 from behind the arc (42.9%). He also chipped in on the defensive side, netting 4 steals which was more than his total in the first 10 games combined.

Currently on pace to come within striking distance of 200 3PT FGM, it’s safe to say Robinson has seized his increased minutes in the absence of Winslow and others.

The Philly Game

Between now and the next edition of GUTS CHECK, Jimmy and the Heat will visit the Sixers. I cannot wait for that game. Mark your calendars folks, Saturday November 23rd at 7:30 pm EST. Process versus Culture in the flesh.

Jimmy versus a hostile Philly crowd, with this group of dogs behind him. Easily the early favorite for the game Heat fans are looking forward to most thus far.

Who knows, maybe Jimmy will also put in a good word with Embiid as a fit next to Bam right?

How on earth did that game not get scheduled for national television? Flex schedule anyone?

Davis: Dolphins must draft wisely, not focus on one player

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The most significant development of the weekend for the Dolphins occurred far from Hard Rock Stadium.

Matter of fact, nothing was gained in the desultory 37-20 loss to the Bills on Sunday, not even in relation to next year’s draft. At 2-8, the Dolphins remain positioned to pick fourth behind the Bengals, Redskins and Giants.

It is pure speculation what that means in the wake of the devastating injury to Alabama quarterback Tua Tagavailoa on Saturday.

#TankForTua has given way to #PrayForTua.

One can only hope that Alabama team orthopedic surgeon Dr. Lyle Cain’s optimistic report following surgery on Tua’s right hip Monday in Houston proves accurate. Cain said in a post-op statement: “Tua’s prognosis is excellent, and we expect him to make a full recovery.”

Whether or not a full recovery equates to Tua being able to perform at the level of his brilliant collegiate career, which ended abruptly on one unfortunate landing, won’t be known for many months.

Dolphins news: DeVante Parker turned back the clock Sunday

And it is immaterial how his health may affect Dolphins draft plans.

As an observer, I am more interested in athletes than teams. The special ones are a treasure. So I’m rooting for Tua foremost — for his sake but also for the hope of seeing his talent blossom in the NFL regardless of what uniform he might wear.

Comeback complicated for Tua

Whether he will get that opportunity remains to be seen.

The comments of Dr. Louis Levitt, in a report by CBS Sports, provide an indication of the complex variables of Tua’s injury — a dislocated hip with a fracture to the posterior wall — and the recovery process he faces. A similar injury ended Bo Jackson’s NFL career.

Levitt, vice president and secretary for The Centers for Advanced Orthopaedics in Washington, D.C., told CBS Sports: “… the perfect scenario, the ball is back in the socket, there are no loose fragments in the socket, it is a single piece of the socket that can easily be put back. He doesn’t get any complications and then, if all the Gods shine down on him, he then can probably get back to playing and retain his professional potential within a year.”

Again, the primary concern is for the well being of a young athlete whose future has been clouded by an injury that is rare even in the violent sport he plays.

As it relates to the Dolphins, it illuminates the folly of trying to tailor the fortunes — or misfortunes — of an entire season with the aim of being in position to draft a particular player.

This most confusing Dolphins season, which had some fans rooting for losses to improve draft position,  has gotten more so.

Already some Dolfans are shifting focus to LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, while others want the team to take a chance on Tua making that full recovery.

All of which is premature and wasted energy. It will be weeks before Tua is permitted to put weight on his surgically repaired hip and months before he can try to attempt football maneuvers. As a junior, he may not even enter the 2020 NFL draft.

Houtz special: Despite injury, Dolphins should draft Tagovailoa

What about Kap?

If you want to speculate, why not throw the name of Colin Kaepernick into the mix? The controversial exile quarterback, showed in a special workout Saturday that he is able as well as eager to get back into the league.

The bottom line is, in stripping down the roster, Dolphins GM Chris Grier has accumulated a load of draft picks, including three first-round choices in 2020.

He will have ample opportunity to address some of their many needs, including a quarterback. And with an estimated $117 million in cap space ahead of next season, there will be flexibility in signing free agents to fill other needs.

The one thing Sunday’s one-sided loss to the Bills underscored was how widespread Miami’s needs are. The Dolphins can’t run (23 yards on 13 carries, ouch!) or stop the run (168 yards, 4.9 per carry allowed). They can’t protect the quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick sacked seven times) or muster a pass rush (zero sacks of Josh Allen).

Rather than pinning hopes on one presumed savior QB, it will come down to choices — as it always does.

Thus the concern is not that a couple of wins have taken the Dolphins out of the running for the first overall pick. It is that too often in the past, they have simply made the wrong choices.

Tony Capobianco photo gallery from Dolphins’ loss to the Bills

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Launching Pad: Nunn’s buckets, Butler’s passing, Bambidextrous

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 9-3 (3-0, 2nd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 107.7 (113.6)

• Defensive Rating: 101.1 (102.7)

• Net Rating: plus-6.5 (plus-10.9)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.7 (64.4)

• Pace: 102.15 (97.5)

• Time of Possession: 14.3 seconds (14.6)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard

• Minutes: 11

• Offensive Rating: 117.4

• Defensive Rating: 60.0

• Net Rating: plus-57.4

• True-Shooting Percentage: 68.7

• Pace: 107.66

The Big Number: 1.434

Roughly 1/8 of the way through the NBA season, the Miami Heat remain one of the best shooting clubs in the league. They rank fourth in three-point percentage (38.4), and have five players shooting well above league with moderate-or-better volume.

Meyers Leonard is shooting a blistering 61.9 percent from deep, which makes it even more perplexing that he’s only averaging 1.9 attempts on the year. The man took four (4) threes this week!

What makes the shooting scary is that it’s come on the back of good looks. The Heat are the most efficient team in the NBA on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. They’re generating 1.434 points per possession on those looks via Synergy. A 48.8 percent clip on those shots pace the league by nearly three percentage points.

Your primary culprit: Duncan Robinson. He’s an absurd 19-of-26 (!!!) on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. When you combine that with his mostly-fine defense, it’s becoming harder to make the case that he should return to the bench when Justise Winslow returns.

Weekly Trends

1. Kendrick Nunn keeps shooting

Nunn has had an absolute roller coaster of a season so far. He’s been historic, borderline unplayable, and sneaky good all in a three-week stretch. Just look at these splits.

First five games: 22.4 points on 17.0 shots, 52/48/100 shooting split

Next four games: 9.3 points on 11.0 shots, 34/19/60 shooting split

Last three games: 21.7 points on 17.0 shots, 51/43/80 shooting split

If there’s been one source of consistency from Nunn, it’s been his willingness to take shots when he feels they’re makable.

To his credit, Nunn has been one of the NBA’s best volume pick-and-roll threats. Among 55 players that have logged at least 90 pick-and-roll possessions (passes included), Nunn ranks 9th in efficiency (1.065 PPP). He’s ahead of guys like LeBron James (1.052), D’Angelo Russell (1.032), Kyrie Irving (1.008), James Harden (1.0), and Trae Young (0.983).

Nunn has the profile of a three-level scorer so far. He’s converting roughly 65 percent of his shots at the rim, 47.4 percent of his middies, and 41.2 percent of his above-the-break threes. His ability to make shots with forward momentum — pull-up jumpers, floaters, hang-in-the-air layups — have made him difficult to defend with a head of steam, especially in transition.

 

 

Nunn’s a hot-and-cold bucket-getter at this stage. Luckily for the Heat, he’s running hot right now.

2. Point Jimmy

Who the heck is this guy?

When the Heat added Butler, they were expecting to add a bonafide number scoring option. Through nine games, Butler only has one 25-plus point outing under his belt. His 18.4 scoring average, if it holds, would be the lowest it’s been since the 2013-14 season.

Yet, the vibe right now is that his passive style is intentional.

Butler is averaging a career-high 7.2 assists, well above his previous high of 5.5 in 2016-17. He’s made it a point to empower the players surrounding him. It’s why Nunn can afford to shoot until his arms fall off. It’s why Bam Adebayo can stretch himself as an intermediate threat.

Via NBA.com’s tracking data, Adebayo and Nunn are Butler’s favorite targets, receiving 11.7 and 9.8 passes per game from him respectively. Adebayo is converting 61.5 percent of his shots off of Butler passes, while Nunn is boasting a 50/50 shooting split.

Butler is spreading the wealth, and doing so in a myriad of ways. He’s operated as the post hub of Miami’s split action sets, run pick-and-rolls, engineered transition opportunities, and found guys in scramble situations.

 

 

At a certain point, Butler will have to assert himself more as a scorer. For now, though, it’s hard to argue with the process or the results.

3. Bam’s off-hand work

Speaking of assertiveness, let’s give a quick hat-tip to Adebayo for doing a little bit of everything on offense. I talked about him in this space last week so there isn’t need to rehash everything. One thing that I missed was his off-hand improvement.

It appears Adebayo has made a concerted effort to become an ambidextrous finisher. Before the Heat’s matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday, I made a compilation of all of his left-handed finishes this season.

He only logged one shot attempt with his left on Saturday, a missed dunk off of a lob. Still, a 7-of-15 clip (46.7 percent) for a big that struggled with non-dunk finishes with either hand last year is something to build on.

Set Play of the Week

Runnin’ in circles

It feels like the Heat are adding in a new off-ball screening wrinkle every week. The play I wanted to focus in on looks like their post split action flipped on its head. Instead of going north-south, the Heat are working east-west beyond the arc.

 

 

The Heat busted out this bad boy a few times against the Detroit Pistons. The logic is sound: let’s put stress on Detroit’s weak perimeter defenders until they make a mistake.

This play gives off the look of staggered screen action for Robinson (running off two angled picks), but then Robinson curls inside. This serves as the first read. If the Pistons don’t switch, that will leave Luke Kennard trailing Robinson, and Bruce Brown following Nunn over a screen from Adebayo. With Nunn being a plus-shooter, Andre Drummond would have to stay high to take away a pull-up triple.

Of course, the Pistons switch, so the Heat flow into part two of the action. Nunn is still scheduled to come off the Adebayo screen, but with the switch and Kennard’s positioning, he isn’t able to come off cleanly. But thanks to Kennard essentially face-guarding, Nunn is able to reverse course, creating a 2-on-1 on the other side of the screen.

Brown sees the Nunn-Robinson screen coming and tries to call out the switch, but by then it’s too late. A push-off from Robinson creates an extra foot or two of space. Butler feeds Robinson, and he drills the bomb.

Improv is fun, folks.

Alabama Athletics

Houtz Special: Despite injury, Dolphins should draft Tagovailoa

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Despite a season-ending injury, the Miami Dolphins should still have significant interest in Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tank for Tua

For as long as we can remember, Tank for Tua has been the preferred plan by most Dolphins’ fans.  And truth is, after starting the season 0-7 it was the only thing fans had to look get excited for. But like everything that happens with this team, nothing ever goes according to plan.

So, of course the Dolphins won Tua straight games and looked to be eliminated from the #Tankovailoa sweepstakes.

On one hand, this was a good thing.  Because it showed promise in Brian Flores and the rest of Miami’s coaching staff.  After all, they have done an outstanding job developing players, and have remained competitive despite an XFL-caliber roster.

Unfortunately, winning games means they would miss out on the quarterback they were believed to have their hearts set on.  Sure, there were alternative methods to achieve this goal, but they would be extremely costly. But again, expect the unexpected.

Flash forward to Saturday. With just under four minutes to play in the second quarter of a commanding 35-7 first-half lead over Mississippi State, Tagovaiola landed hard on his right hip. Several reports said he was unable to walk and was heard “screaming in agony”.  Later, we would find out from an team doctor that it was a hip dislocation, which would end his once promising season.

We can all sit here and speculate on who is at fault.

Maybe we can blame Nick Saban for not taking his star QB out sooner.  Perhaps he should have sat him all together, in a game many believed ‘Bama would win handily.

Then again, maybe it’s Tua’s fault, for wanting to be a team leader and play – despite the ankle injury – and prove to the world he is that damn good.

Nevertheless, hindsight suggests this mistake was costly.  Not only for Alabama’s playoff aspirations but for Tua, who was expected to enter the 2020 NFL Draft as the potential #1 overall pick.

Now neither is expected to happen.

Where do the Dolphins go from here?

Obviously, the Dolphins still head into the 2020 NFL draft with a war chest of draft picks-and still have aspirations of finding their next franchise QB.  Could they take Oregon’s Justin Herbert? Maybe, Georgia QB Jake Fromm? Perhaps they draft Jordan Love or Jalen Hurts to develop a year, with hopes of being the guy in 2021? Or maybe, they stay the course and draft Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa.

That’s right, folks.

The 2020 QB Class is loaded with plenty of potential talent. But with potential, comes uncertainty. And no one can sit here and honestly say, they know what is going to come of the aforementioned QBs.

So, why not stay the course?  Why not, draft the QB the Dolphins had their eyes on all along?

Many years ago, Miami’s medical staff made the decision to sign Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees, and that decision still haunts this fanbase until this very day. So sure, maybe the Dolphins’ medical staff makes another grave mistake, but at what expense?

Why pass on Tua in a draft where Miami currently has THREE first-round draft picks? In fact, most draft picks are nothing more than a gamble anyway, so why not gamble on one of the most talented players at the most important position in football?

In a strange way, the injury might have actually helped the Dolphins’ chances of landing Tagovailoa. Because prior to the injury, many believed he was a surefire top-5 draft pick. A player that if Miami wants to get, they would need to move heaven and earth to do so.  Now, they can win a few more games in 2020 and select the Alabama QB with the first of their day one draft picks.

Conclusion

According to AL.com, ‘sources’ believe the Alabama QB could be ready to play football in 6-8 months.

Obviously, this is all speculation. But if the report are true, I would have no problem with Miami selecting Tagovailoa with the first of their three first-round draft picks.  Joe Burrow is good but in my opinion, there is no better QB in the 2020 NFL draft than Tua. And if the Dolphins finally  want to get out of the 7-9 hell they have found themselves in since Marino’s retirement, they will take the chance.  Tagovailoa can sit a year and learn behind Fitpatrick or whatever other veteran QB the Dolphins deem fit. But they owe it to themselves, to their loyal fanbase, to draft the best QB in the country.

That QB to me is Tua Tagovailoa.

This article was written by Josh Houtz (@Houtz) and he really, really wants the Dolphins to draft Tua Tagovailoa

The Mourning Edition: Miami Heat’s Winning Time Is Coming Early

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Welcome to the first dispatch of The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The Miami Heat shouldn’t be breathing this easy.

Not when they’re playing faster than any team in franchise history. Not when they’re incorporating a host of newcomers, including every-night starter Kendrick Nunn and second-team-minutes-per-game leader Tyler Herro. Not when they’re already working around a number of absences, both for injury reasons and…let’s just say otherwise.

That’s enough to tire any team out; yes, even one that bills itself as the Association’s “best-conditioned, hardest-working…” you know the rest.

But the Heat aren’t wheezing in the slightest. They keep running opponents off the floor, usually shortly after the opening tip gets tossed.

They’ve already had their most lopsided quarter in franchise history, when they amassed a 46-14 first-frame advantage over a Rockets team on a 60-win pace. That was the most extreme example of their out-of-the-gate sprints, but their early execution has been so precise, world-class surgeons should take not.

Their first-half net efficiency rating is an NBA-best plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions. No one else is clearing double digits, and only three other teams sit north of plus-7.5. Their assist percentage through the first 24 minutes is an absurd 71.3. To put that number in context, the Golden State Warriors paced the category last season at 66.8.

They have top-six efficiency marks on both ends through the first two frames. No other team can make that claim, and only the Milwaukee Bucks—last season’s wins leader—also land in the top 10 on each end.

Obviously, there are two halves to a game, and once we expand to full-game statistics, Miami goes from the NBA’s best team to one of its best. (If you have to downgrade, that’s the best way to do it, right?) The team’s actual net rating is plus-5.8, which is “only” tied for fifth.

That says two things about this squad.

The first is that it can be really, really good. The Heat are playing connected basketball at both ends—score one for #TheCulture—and basically everyone inside of the rotation seems comfortable in his role and capable of executing it.

“I know what championship basketball looks and feels like. I’ve been a part of some championship teams,” Nunn said. “The culture here is just for that.”

This also means the Heat haven’t been as effective after intermission.

Frankly, they’ve rarely needed to be. They’re steamrolling lesser clubs so early that they’re able to sleepwalk Big Three-style through second halves. Battling complacency and boredom—and perhaps tired legs lately with more injuries popping up—Miami hasn’t always stepped on the necks of opponents after knocking them down.

This group is good enough that its first punches are landing with a haymaker’s force, so even two-quarters-and-change of effort and intensity has been good enough to dispatch bottom feeders. The Heat are one of only six teams with an undefeated record against sub-.500 teams.

Still, Miami can’t count on 24-minute routs always being enough, even if it has fired up a few victory cigars at halftime already.

“NBA basketball games are long,” Erik Spoelstra said. “And you have to play all the way through to the end.”

Spo’s right. It’s a tedious, nit-picky process, but letting off the gas too much can prove problematic.

At the same time, it’s the middle of November. That the Heat are even encountering this problem already is incredible, and the fact it’s perhaps emerging as an early focus says everything you need to know about this start.

Finding a killer instinct is one of the final steps of in building a basketball juggernaut. Miami revamped its roster this summer and has reshuffled the rotation already in-season (multiple times over). To be this far ahead of the learning curve at this stage of the game with this many moving parts is a testament to Pat Riley’s vision, Spo’s guidance, Jimmy Butler’s leadership and the culture-infused cohesiveness this core has created.

If the Heat continue staying a step or two ahead, then the ceiling keeps rising and wildest dreams become expectations, if not eventual realities.

WATCH: Dolphins coach Brian Flores calls media on the carpet

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Every once in a while, the media receives pushback from those they interview. Reporters in charge of interviewing Bill Belichick and Adam Gase know what that’s like, in different ways. On Thursday, however, a certain member of the Miami Dolphins media got called on the carpet by coach Brian Flores.

And when we say called out, we mean like a middle school student caught whispering to the kid next to him kind of called out. At the end of the press conference, the Sun Sentinel’s Safid Deen laughed at something coach Flores was saying. Flores then cut himself off, turned to Deen, and asked him what he thought was so funny. The exchange can be found at the end of this video.

Clearly, Flores doesn’t find the concept of keeping a cool head to be amusing. What is amusing, admittedly, is listening to Deen try and explain himself. Like he had to explain to the class why he was laughing during the lecture. Unfortunately, the video makes it hard to hear Deen’s response.

Fortunately, the Dolphins transcribed the event as it played out. When asked to explain why he thought it was funny, Deen said this:

“I don’t know. We asked about Shaq Calhoun a couple weeks ago. I mean, we didn’t ask about Shaq Calhoun a couple weeks ago – he came up unsolicited – so it’s nice to hear you want your players to kind of keep an even head about everything.”

The incident in question happened a few weeks ago, when Flores made rookie Shaq Calhoun inactive in response to what Flores called the ‘rookie wall.’ Clearly, Brian Flores didn’t think it was worth laughing over.

Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for six years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung

Chris Grier isn't a perfect general manager, but he does not deserve to be fired.

Dolphins Rebuild Still on Schedule Despite Win Streak.

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This win streak has Miami Dolphin fans feeling some kind of way.  All of the emotions were on display this past Sunday as I took an unfortunate stroll through Twitter.  That win against the Indianapolis Colts essentially ended the pursuit for Alabama signal caller Tua Tagovailoa in the eyes of many Dolphin fans.

First of all, that is not true.  Circumstances are conspiring to give Miami another shot at Tua Tagovailoa.  Joe Burrow has the hype train rolling and took a giant step toward the Heisman Trophy, and an extended post season with his win at Bryant-Denny Stadium.  It is conceivable that Joe Burrow is QB1 and Tua drops right into Miami’s lap.  On the information side of this, after consulting with a league source, the “thinking” in league circles is that Tua Tagovailoa has nowhere near a consensus among NFL front offices as QB1 and this source speculates that “maybe” half of NFL teams view him as the best Quarterback in this class.

There are two silver linings to this resurgence.  The first is that Brian Flores is somehow finding NFL wins with a team that is sporting several units that belong in the XFL.  The second is that the base of players they will add to this offseason is growing, ever so slightly, but growing nonetheless.

 

So let me offer some optimism.  The 2018 Oakland Raiders were 4-12, having made over parts of the team under John Gruden’s first year as coach.  Not much of it took and a quick reboot was in order.  Trades of top performers, Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper made their immediate direction rather clear. (Is this starting to sound familiar?)  The Raiders then took to the 2019 offseason with 3 first round picks and massive amounts of cap space (sound really familiar now?).  After adding 27 new players and 14 new starters through free agency and the draft, the Raiders are not only a playoff contender, they also play an exciting brand of Football, just in time for their move to Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Dolphins will need to duplicate some of that success to achieve the same thing (competency and contention).

So let’s evaluate what’s in the cupboard before this offseason. A quarterback will be drafted in the first round, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is the perfect backup/mentor for that draft pick.  I believe the Josh Rosen experiment is near over.  The running backs group needs a headliner, but the rest of the group is pedestrian and could use a look or two.  The tight ends are developing with Mike Gesicki taking a big leap this year, and the wide receivers unit is near complete.  The offensive line is a considerable mess and deserves a complete overhaul with maybe one holdover (Jesse Davis).

On defense is where the most work is needed.  The secondary is a barren landscape, populated with journeymen, street free agents, one super star and one fading performer (Bobby McCain).  In recent weeks, Coach Brian Flores and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham have managed to get above average play out of Eric Rowe as a Free Safety,  Nik Needham in a series of roles, Jomal Wiltz as a slot guy, and Ken Crawley as a boundary corner.

If this coaching staff is now demonstrating that odd skill of squeezing every ounce of detailed, smart play they can get from a non-descript no-name group like the New England Patriots often do, then they have really found something.

The linebackers are a near complete unit with Raekwon McMillan emerging as one of the best interior backers in the NFL, Jerome Baker paying dividends on his promise, and Vince Biegel coming off the edge effectively.  The Defensive line is a group of players that recognize and play their roles well.  The defensive tackles might be a strength with Cristian Wilkins coming on strong and Davon Godchaux having another steady season.

 

 

 

 

One door closes (Tua, but not really) and another opens.  What once looked like a daunting task, has a more defined mission.  All the while we were thinking that 0-16 or 1-15 was necessary to obtain the QB of your choice, circumstances have changed to demonstrate that the work load, while large, is not overwhelming or insurmountable.


Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.

GUTS CHECK: West Coast Miami Heat Waiters Drama, Looking Ahead

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Welcome back to Guts Check. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and an expression of the soul of the Heat fan base. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Lost at Denver, 109-89
  • Won at Phoenix, 124-108
  • Lost at Los Angeles Lakers, 95-80

Let’s review a few of my key takeaways from last week, and what we should be looking towards.

More Defense, Less Drama

What a difference a week makes?

The 3 game West coast trip left Miami 1-2 on the trip, 6-3 on the season. They had an impressive win in Phoenix sandwiched in between two tough losses in Denver and Los Angeles.

However, the more troubling elements surrounding the team over the last 3 games have less to do with the Heat’s play and more to do with off the court & injury report issues.

Let’s quickly recap:

  • Dion Waiters earned a team suspension of 10 games for conduct detrimental to the team.
    • I’m not going to spend too much time rehashing this bizarre scenario, but if it makes you feel any worse this appears to be the punctuation to a handful of similar issues as it pertains to Dion. This is now becoming a trend for Waiters and Miami. The team has been at odds with Waiters for far too long and both parties have been left to throw hands up at each other. This isn’t likely to end in nice fashion.
  • Justise Winslow appears to have apparently finished a game while concussed and has now been forced to miss several games following that head injury.
    • Injury aside, Winslow’s uneven start is not viewed as concerning according to a team source. The thought being, time to further build chemistry with Jimmy Butler, improve his shooting and stay healthy will translate to positive momentum for the starting point guard. If the shooting doesn’t come, the Heat are going to have some interesting decisions to make long term.
  • The injury bug has also hit the Heat by the likes of Tyler Herro and Kelly Olynyk. (Not to mention Derrick Jones Jr. remains sidelined).
    • The Heat can’t afford to lose the spacing that Herro and KO provide. Let’s keep our fingers crossed both Herro and Olynyk, listed as questionable tonight, can suit up.

However, all things considered, I think any rational Heat observer would take 6-3 to start this season.

Looking Ahead

The key for this team that will determine if homecourt in the East playoffs is achievable has a lot less to do with how they perform on three game west coast trips and much more to do with how they handle an upcoming 7 game stretch like what lies ahead.

Tuesday Nov 12 vs. Detroit

Thursday Nov 14 at Cleveland

Saturday Nov 16 vs New Orleans

Wednesday Nov 20 vs Cleveland

Friday, Nov 22 at Chicago

Saturday, Nov 23 at Philadelphia

Monday, Nov 25 vs. Charlotte

6-1 should be the goal, 5-2 you also take. However, you can’t stumble through these portions of the schedule. These are the clusters of winnable games that pad the W/L record (especially the home games) to protect against those nights in Denver or other west coast trips in the future.

While aside from Philadelphia, the Heat’s next 7 opponents may lack marquee game appeal, this will be a telling two weeks of Heat basketball.

Player to Watch

Kendrick Nunn is firmly on my radar this week.

Honestly, I still don’t really even know what we have in this kid. How Nunn bounces back from his recent “struggles” relative to his blazing hot start, is probably what I am most curious to find out this week. Defenses are taking advantage of his aggressive style of defense and forcing him to do more than just score.

Nunn has seemingly played his way into the rotation regardless, but the question will become how entrenched as a starter he is, and how effective can he be late in games as teams tighten the screws on defense.

The other player I am anxious to watch this week is Jimmy Butler. Because duh.

As many of those scoring sprees (like we saw in Phoenix) we can witness from a superstar of Butler’s caliber in a Heat uniform, the better. It feels damn good to have a player who can do that type of heavy lifting night in and night out. Plus, he gets respect from the officials.

Some might say Jimmy Butler has the guts.

That’s a wrap until next week.

Launching Pad: Bam’s Brilliance, Goran’s Gadget, Heat Rookies Rolling

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 6-3 (2-2, 4th in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 105.8 (104.7)

• Defensive Rating: 100.6 (102.5)

• Net Rating: plus-5.2 (plus-2.2)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 57.0 (55.4)

• Pace: 103.69 (100.63)

• Time of Possession: 14.2 seconds (14.7)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard

• Minutes: 33

• Offensive Rating: 105.5

• Defensive Rating: 71.2

• Net Rating: plus-34.3

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.8

• Pace: 105.44

The Big Number: 24

When the Heat finally — I cannot emphasize the word “finally” enough — landed Jimmy Butler, the first on-court thought revolved around what he could bring to a sputtering Heat offense. The pick-and-roll playmaking. His slashing ability. The sweet, sweet, free throws he could generate — and make!

A close second, however, would be his defensive fit with the Heat’s prized pupils, Bam Adebayo and Justise Winslow. In theory, having those three on the floor would practically guarantee an elite defensive group. That level of athleticism and aggressiveness would be tough for enemy offenses to deal with, no matter the scheme at hand.

Due to injuries and a baby, we haven’t seen this group much. They’ve played just 24 minutes together this season, with 11 of those coming this past week. In those 24 minutes, opponents have scored just 93.9 points per 100 possessions.
The offensive fit is a bit clunky (97.9 points per 100 possessions), though you can attribute that to Winslow and Butler trying to figure things out. It’s way too early to hit the panic button on that front, but it’s something to monitor whenever Winslow returns.

Weekly Trends

1. Bam Adebayo is taking a leap

I’m not sure anyone could’ve predicted this start.

We’ll kick things off with the easy numbers: 12.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.6 blocks.

Nobody in the league meets all five of those benchmarks. If you drop the search to 12-9-4-1-1, you get to add Giannis Antetokounmpo and Karl-Anthony Towns to the list. That’s it.

The rebounding issue hasn’t been an issue in the way you’d think. The Heat are ending possessions at a higher rate (74.7 defensive rebound rate) with Adebayo on the floor than when he’s off (73.5), but they’re doing a much better job on the offensive glass without him (31.4 vs. 24.0).

Adebayo has looked to stretch his game some. The results have been predictably mixed. He’s starting to go to his face-up game more, finally utilizing his rare blend of ball-handling and strength.

 

 

Most bigs just don’t have the lateral quickness to hang with Adebayo. As a result, he’s getting to the line more than ever. His 7.4 free throw attempts are easily a career-high and rank in the top 10 of the NBA. Of course, it would be helpful if he wasn’t converting freebies at the worst clip of his career (59.7 percent, career 71.0 percent).

With more touches, we’ve been treated to more passing flashes. Adebayo isn’t just a good passer for a big; he’s a good passer, period. The Heat have empowered him in more high elbow sets (more on that later) and he’s delivered with some absolute dots.

This level of exploration comes with slight downsides. Adebayo is taking a much larger share of non-rim paint shots than he ever has. His turnovers have predictably spiked. He still leaves a bit to be desired as a post threat against switches, though you hope that comes with more reps.

You take those speed bumps with the production Adebayo is already giving you. That’s before you get into what he’s giving you defensively. He’s been all over the place, folks.

 

Adebayo has defended post brutes like Karl-Anthony Towns and Nikola Jokic. He’s spent time taking shoulder charges from Giannis. Guards have tried — and mostly failed — to attack him on switches. There isn’t a soul that Adebayo is afraid to defend on an island, and he’s been darn good at the rim so far.

There’s legitimate All-Defensive potential here if he stays healthy.

What do you get when you combine versatile offensive production with All-World defense?

A darned good player *almost* as good as Ekpe Udoh.

 

2. Goran Dragic, off the cuff

To say that Dragic has settled into the sixth man role would be a bit of an understatement. His 16.7 points are good for second on the Heat, and rank 5th in the NBA among players with at least five bench appearances.

The move was honestly a bit overdue, but that’s unimportant. Dragic is killing opposing second units with elbow-hurling drives and a new-and-improved off-the-bounce game. Through nine games, Dragic is shooting 50 percent (18-of-36) on shots off the dribble, placing him in the 97th percentile via Synergy. He’s transitioning from ball-handler to shooter quicker than he ever has, which has put defenders in uncomfortable positions.

This is a counter that Dragic has quietly been adding over the past couple of seasons. With more defenders ducking under screens in pick-and-roll, he started using his screener as a wall to load up for rhythm threes. Now, he’s shimmying without help. It’s the kind of weapon that will force defenders to fight over; fighting over should give Dragic more advantage situations to work with.
Good for him.
3. Rocking with the rookies
There are nine rookies currently averaging double-digit points. Not only do the Heat have the number two (Kendrick Nunn, 16.6) and number seven (Tyler Herro, 13.1) guys on the list, they’re the only players with a positive net rating.
In short, the primary rooks are punching well above their weight right now. At his best, Nunn has looked like a dynamic pick-and-roll scorer with the ability to disrupt sets at the point of attack on the other end. At Herro’s best, he’s been a shot-making, board-crashing, Devin-Booker-pocket-picking ball of fun.
Whew.
There are negatives of course. Opposing guards have started back-cutting Nunn since they’ve caught on to him jumping routes. He also has a pretty extreme case of tunnel vision; we’ll just have to see how much that improves moving forward.
Herro has predictably struggled against length, particularly at the basket. Via Synergy, he’s shot just 5-of-12 at the rim, and has relied heavily on his floater in the intermediate area. Having the floater in his bag is objectively a good thing. He’s knocked down five of his seven attempts. Having the floater be the only source of success as a driver is where things get murky.
Overall, it’s hard not to be pleased with what those two have provided so far.

Set Play of the Week

HORNS Slice
As mentioned earlier, the Heat have given Adebayo more elbow touches. Most of those have come out of their HORNS alignment. For those unfamiliar, that consists of a ball-handler up top, typically two bigs stationed at each elbow, and the other two players slotted in each corner.
The Heat have been running a quick hitter out of HORNS dubbed “HORNS Slice”, which is designed to get a cutter downhill. Of course, getting a cutter downhill means next to nothing if the ball can’t be delivered in a timely manner.
That’s where Adebayo comes in.
The original plan here is to get Nunn on a cut. However, Butler quickly recognizes that the Nuggets are switching, so he improvs. Instead of setting the screen for Nunn, Butler slips and pins the smaller Jamal Murray on his hip. Adebayo does a great job of feeding Butler on time, and Butler converts a mostly unbothered lay-up.
Easy money.

Wise Man, Dumb Decisions: Developing The G League

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James Wiseman is one of the most intriguing and versatile big man prospects to be recruited since Anthony Davis. But none of that will matter, because this happened:

Just like that, after just one game, a promising college career has been cut short, all because NBA legend-turned-Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway helped Wiseman move to the Memphis area ahead of his hiring.

This is the NCAA, folks.

Personally, I’m sick and tired of seeing players punished because they were given a helping hand en route to their success.

It’s time for a change.

It’s time for the NBA G League to become North American basketball’s official farm league—for journeymen and undrafted prospects alike.

Much has been discussed about lowering and raising the draft eligibility age. Do high schoolers have the right to play in the NBA?

Should they? Should we demand players have more seasoning before entering the league? Is that the responsibility of the player or the drafting team?

What if we decided to fix the NBA Draft process once and for all?

Here are two things, I believe, that should take place first:

  1. The G League officially expands to 30-32 teams in order to accommodate either the NBA’s current makeup or the league’s final expansion—hopefully Seattle and either Las Vegas or Louisville. Each team has an official minor league affiliate.
  2. Now a fully-fledged minor league, the G League opens its doors to players that would, under the NBA’s current draft eligibility rules, be formally ineligible for the NBA Draft.

In this scenario, franchises would be able to draft, then sign a high school-aged (no younger than 17) prospect to the maximum-allowed G League deal, where the prospect (if not eligible right away) will be able to play with the team’s minor league affiliate in order to develop and season until they are able to seamlessly transition into the NBA.

In other words, athletes would be able to choose between playing amateur ball at a certain college on scholarship and playing for a G League at a certain scaled undrafted prospect salary.

As a side-note, let’s assume here that by this point, G League salaries are considerably more lucrative than they currently are (an inevitability with the continued growth of the NBA), so G League players, while not necessarily living in NBA (or WNBA)-styled max-level penthouses, aren’t exactly steeped in poverty either.

This would mean that a talented prospect like RJ Hampton wouldn’t have to move to Australia to play basketball and be paid for his services, nor would someone like Darius Bazley have to take a year off from basketball just to make money.

Players like James Wiseman (or even Zion Williamson last season) would be creating a buzz all around the G League, bringing more fans into areas not normally visited by major franchises.

Under this plan, a prospect’s draft rights could be moved around the league (like any unsigned draft pick’s rights) via trade throughout the G League, but only if traded to another NBA team.

What are the benefits of this idea?

Prospects are able to develop in an NBA-ready environment without being exploited by an already engorged and prohibitively expensive college system here in the United States.

Prospects are taught how to be professionals in an expanded version of the Rookie Transition Program. Prospects are also able to develop under the watchful eye of the franchises that initially drafted them, until they are ready to contribute at a high level.

As a result, players aren’t forced to subject themselves to an outdated collegiate athletic system that only aims to enrich itself, and can instead focus on the very craft to which they’ve consciously dedicated their lives. Think of development squads under international soccer clubs.

I would imagine that this balanced approach might be able to appease both sides of the debate, while growing the league on both ends.

Interest in G League franchises will spike exponentially, and the NBA’s footprint in non-NBA markets will continue to grow with increased attention now dedicated to exciting new talents.

G League markets will be able to get an exclusive glimpse at the NBA’s future prodigies, and parts of the country too far away from NBA venues will be able to fall in love with the game of basketball all over again with competitive play.

Either way, it’s time for the NCAA to stop profiting off the talents of hundreds of talented young athletes.

More on this as it develops…

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Born in Brooklyn and raised in Boca Raton, Ricky J. Marc is an alumnus of the Obama White House and Cornell Paris Institute, a former Legislative Aide with both the Florida House of Representatives and Florida Senate, and a graduate of St. Thomas University with a Juris Doctor and Master of Science in Sports Administration.

He currently resides in Paris, France. Follow him on Twitter @RickyJMarc.