Josh Rosen needs a nickname

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In my many years as a fan of the Miami Dolphins, there have been moments that had nothing to do with the on-field product that brought about great excitement.

The Dolphins acquiring Keith Jackson, the signing of Jimmy Johnson as Head Coach, the trade for Ricky Williams, Nick Saban coming to town, and yes, the drafting of Ryan Tannehill.  (For a few minutes, at least.) The trade that brought Josh Rosen to Miami, might be right up there with all of them.

There is no denying that Dolphin fans are pinning a lot of their hopes for 2019 and beyond on Josh Rosen, and why not? There is nothing going on to properly evaluate him, even though we engage in this annual ritual of watching players run around in shorts in May every year.  Until he plays in camp, a pre-season game, a regular season game, we have to postpone our evaluation, but we don’t have to postpone our excitement.  With that excitement, has come the nickname the “Hebrew Hammer”, and with it, countless examples of many in our network casually referring to Rosen as such:

As well as some, that have sought to sell T-Shirts with the name emblazoned on it:

Now, this is fun. I am all for fun. But lets be a bit original. “Hebrew Hammer” belongs to others. Yes, Josh Rosen seems to have given himself the nickname. He needs a writer on staff. The nickname not only belongs to others, but is rather common:

The OTHER “Hebrew Hammers”:
Adam Edelman- Israeli Olympic team’s Menn’s Skeleton Racer
Ryan Braun- 6 time MLB All-Star.
Hank Greenberg- Hall of Fame MLB Player.
Gabe Kapler- MLB Player.
Al Rosen- 4 Time MLB All-Star.

and there are others!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebrew_Hammer

So, let’s be a bit original. In fact, our network, has, uh, well, kinda started on this:

5 Reasons Jew Brees Tee

Subtle. Effective. No comment.

So, what nickname do I like? I like “Josh Chosen.” Does it suck? Probably, maybe, but it’s original. Have at it in Twitter threads, and in the comments to this item. Let’s name JOSH ROSEN.

Dolphins’ new regime believes in second chances

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Usually when a change is made at the top, it has a trickle effect throughout the entire organization.

So once Miami moved on from Mike Tannenbaum and Chris Grier was handed the keys, a shift in philosophy was sure to follow.

And whether it be trading a second-round pick for Josh Rosen or signing an undrafted free agent with plenty of ‘juicy’ history, what the Dolphins’ organization has done this offseason is “different.”

For years, the Dolphins were more concerned about their public image than giving a mulligan to talented players.  But Brian Flores, who has mentored under Bill Belichick, believes in second chances. And that has been evident more than ever this offseason.

Aside from giving players like Eric Rowe and Chris Reed, low risk, high-reward contracts, the Dolphins are taking fliers on players with “character concerns.” And no we’re not talking about the fabricated issues some South Florida media have with Rosen.

For example, Miami signed Preston Williams, the undrafted wide receiver who has had a troubled past.  Williams was arrested on a misdemeanor assault charge after reportedly pushing his girlfriend out of the way, as he tried to leave  their apartment.  Williams was forced to sit out the 2017 season after transferring from Tennessee, and was later suspended for part of the 2018 season.  His off the field troubles forced the talented wide receiver to go undrafted.

When Williams was asked what he’s learned from his off the field troubles, he said this.  “You have to be a professional on the field and off the field. I just try to stay clean and do what I’m supposed to do.”

Williams isn’t the only ‘bad boy’ the Dolphins took a flier on this offseason.   Yesterday, Miami signed former Hurricane’s running back Mark Walton.  Walton, 22,  has been arrested three times over the last several months.  Most recently, for carrying a concealed weapon and marijuana possession.  And we all saw the video of him ripping the taser off and breaking away from cops with his 4.4 speed.  That was his third arrest in as recent months.

Dolphins head coach Brian Flores said this regarding Walton and second chances.

“I’d say I think … I think people deserve a second chance. I believe that. I think that’s the case. I don’t want to judge people based on one incident (or) two incidents. I think it’s a case-by-case situation for a player and just for people in general. That’s kind of my stance.”

Whether you agree or disagree with what these players have done off the field, this regime believes the talent on the field is worth the black eye that could follow.

However, the reward is far greater than the risk, especially for the Dolphins, who need elite potential wherever they can find it as they rebuild. Williams has the potential to be a #1 wide receiver and Walton was highly regarded out of college.  Both players have the chance to make an impact in 2019 and beyond.  And although no one knows how this will play out, this change in philosophies is a breath of fresh air. And that’s all we can ask for, after so many years of mediocrity.

 

Josh Houtz (@Houtz) contributes to Smark Your Territory and is the co-host of Fantasy On Five. Photo by Tony Capobianco.

Don’t sleep on Dolphins’ Albert Wilson

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The Miami Dolphins 2018 season was a disappointment — to say the least.

But unlike what we’ve grown accustomed to in year’s past, it wasn’t all doom and gloom in 2018.  In fact, several players emerged as potential franchise-caliber players.  Laremy Tunsil took the next step, Xavien Howard did too. Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker — former Buckeyes teammates — both showed some potential to be key contributors on defense for many years to come.  

And then there’s the skill position players.

Kenyan Drake got out-touched by Frank Gore, and guys like DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki struggled to make any type of impact.  However, one player emerged as legit playmaker, one who could have a significant role heading into the 2019 season.

His name is Albert Wilson.

Obviously, EVERYONE listened to the latest episode of Fantasy on 5 where I mentioned Wilson as a player I see having a significant impact in 2019.

Personally, I think a lot of people are going to overlook Albert Wilson.  That is a guy that just, he lit the world on fire when he got the opportunities.  And we know he didn’t get as many opportunities as he could have. But the guy can make plays as a running back, can make plays as a wide receiver.  He (Wilson) can make plays all over the field that we haven’t seen in Miami for- I mean maybe Jarvis Landry, but this is a supped up Jarvis Landry. For me, hands down as long as he comes back from injury, Albert Wilson is that guy.  I think he’s going to be one of those guys that creeps up as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver. If you’re going to make me throw a hot take out there, I’m going to say Albert Wilson is going to be a top-15 fantasy wide receiver this year.

Prior to his injury in Week 7 vs the Detroit Lions, Albert Wilson led the NFL in ‘fantasy points per route’.   

To some, this may be an insignificant statistic.

To others, it provides a pretty good outlier of what type of impact Wilson had in year one in South Florida.

Last offseason, Wilson signed a 3 year, $24-million contract and at the time, very few understood the type of impact he could have. He is good.  Very good.  And he will look to take the next step in 2019.

During the 2018 season, Wilson recorded 26 receptions on only 35 targets.  The end result? 394 yards and 5 touchdowns (1 passing).

Currently, Wilson is being drafted 195th-overall in standard leagues according to FantasyPros.com

Let’s take a look at what Wilson did in 2018 and what we can expect from him in Chad O’Shea’s New England Style offense.

FILM

There are a lot of things that Wilson brings to the table.  And anyone that is familiar with New England’s offense, understands just how deadly the quick slants and crossing routes can be.

If you haven’t figured it out by now, he is a special talent.

Here’s a prime example of that, as Wilson throw a perfect 52-yard touchdown strike to Jakeem Grant in week 3 vs Oakland.

Despite what the stat sheet may say, Ryan Tannehill had nothing to do with the success of this play.

In this play, you see just how explosive Wilson can be with the football in his hands.  He uses every bit of his 4.43 forty to outrun the defense.  *high five*

At 5’9, 201-pounds, you don’t expect Wilson to be able to shake would-be tackles.  And yet, here we are.

Osweiler does a good job of standing tall in the pocket and delivers a pass in stride to Wilson.

Again, Wilson is one of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL.

For years, the Dolphins would try to get the ball in their receivers hands using screens and other variables.

It has been a long time since Miami had a guy with this type of game-altering potential.

In conclusion, Wilson has all the skills to be a dominant wide receiver in the NFL.  Obviously, he must fully recover from the hip injury that he suffered last season.  And surely, he must build a repertoire with new Dolphins quarterback Josh Rosen, before he can have the type of impact we all expect.  But what many in South Florida will soon find out, is that Wilson has the potential to be one of the league’s top receivers in 2019.

#WilsonGangGang

Josh Houtz (@Houtz) cooks in his spare time, when he’s not working on 65 things for Five Reasons Sports Network and Dolphin Maven

Valverde y la era de las debacles

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Ernesto Valverde ha sido exitoso en su pasantía por Barcelona, pero será recordado por las debacles históricas en Champions.

El FC Barcelona volvió a ser eliminado de la Liga de Campeones de Europa tras ser goleado, humillado y superado por el Liverpool en el encuentro de vuelta en Anfield Road.

Ernesto Valverde va a cumplir su segunda temporada como entrenador del Barça.

En ambas ha ganado la liga española, muy por encima del eterno rival Real Madrid.

De hecho, el Atlético ha sido su principal rival desde que llegó a dirigir a los blaugrana.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9Yp1kofQmw

Sin embargo, su gestión hasta los momentos está marcada, y quedará marcada por las eliminaciones vergonzosas en la Liga de Campeones.

Las dos temporadas de Valverde en el Barcelona han tenido algo en común. Dominio total en España, y fracasos rotundos en Europa.

En la 2017-2018, Barcelona se ahogó en Roma y terminó goleado y eliminado ante un rival de bastante menor nivel.

En la ida, el Barcelona había ganado 4-1, y parecía imposible que una remontada se diera en suelo italiano.

Un Barcelona sin corazón se quedó fuera en cuartos de final y todos señalaron a Valverde. Esa fue la primera señal de advertencia.

Así se despedía Andrés Iniesta de la competición. Un Iniesta que luego guio al Barça en la final de Copa para un contundente 5-0.

Una temporada con dos títulos, pero amarga por cómo se dio la eliminación y porque además, el Real Madrid terminó levantando su tercera Champions consecutiva.

Las debacles en Europa marcan la era Valverde

Antes de comenzar la temporada el FC Barcelona enfiló sus cañones hacia la Liga de Campeones, y todo el camino hasta las semifinales fue perfecto.

El Barcelona de Valverde nunca ha encantado con su juego, pero si algo tuvo fue eficiencia.

Además, las derrotas o traspiés que había sufrido llegaron en momentos puntuales y no desviaron el rumbo al objetivo.

Levante y Sevilla hicieron dudar a la afición culé en la Copa del Rey, pero siempre encontraron la manera de superar estas alcabalas.

Eliminaron al Real Madrid en Copa y le ganaron dos veces en cuatro días en el Santiago Bernabéu.

Luego, los blancos quedaron fuera en la Champions tras ser totalmente superados por el Ajax.

Era el fin del reinado blanco y todo parecía sonreirle a Valverde esta temporada.

Olympique de Lyon y Manchester United fueron dos rivales accesibles, aunque apenas anotaron un gol de visitante entre ambas eliminatorias, y fue un autogol de Shaw.

El Camp Nou se convirtió en un fortín y el Barcelona llegaba invicto y afilado a la eliminatoria con el Liverpool, el favorito para ganar la competición.

Valverde rotó a la perfección a sus figuras. Eso no se le puede criticar.

El espejismo de la ida en Camp Nou

En un duelo emocionante entre dos gigantes de Europa, el Barcelona sacó un excelente resultado.

En las planillas de los jueves, el Liverpool ganó por puntos, pero fueron los blaugrana los eficaces y se fueron con una ventaja de tres goles (que debieron ser cuatro por el fallo increíble de Dembelé en la última jugada del partido) a Inglaterra.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_wmpUIAUTU

El Barcelona B jugó el fin de semana mientras el Liverpool se batía con todo ante el Newcastle, ganando en los minutos finales con gol de Origi, y sufriendo la lesión de Salah, su máximo referente.

Sin Salah, y sin Firmino, que seguía tocado, los ingleses parecían tenerlo todo muy cuesta arriba para superar al Barça.

¿En qué falló Valverde?

El Txingurri repitió el once titular del juego de ida a pesar de que se había visto superado en varios fragmentos de ese encuentro.

Apostó nuevamente por Sergi Roberto en la banda en lugar de adelantarlo desde el comienzo.

Le había servido para tomar control en Camp Nou en la segunda mitad, pero no volvió a utilizarlo sino cuando ya estaba con el agua al cuello.

Los errores de Alba, Busquets y Piqué en el primer gol hicieron temblar a los aficionados.

El mismo guión de Roma. Un gol en contra en los primeros minutos y agobiados por la presión alta de los dirigidos por Kloop.

Allison volvió a ser el verdugo del Barcelona

Mucho mérito al planteamiento del alemán, pero Allison fue el que mantuvo con vida al Liverpool.

Alba no quiso patear en una clara ocasión.

La cedió a Messi, quien tampoco remató al arco, intentó un regate y no pudo superar a Virgil Van Dijk.

Era una clara señal de lo que venía.

Tapadas fenomenales a un remate de Lionel Messi, a otro de Coutinho, y luego a Suárez empezando la segunda mitad.

Cualquiera de esas jugadas terminaba en gol y ahí terminaba el sueño inglés.

¿Es el fin de la era Valverde?

A Valverde no se le puede criticar por las fallas de sus delanteros, pero sí por la falta de carácter.

Puso a Vidal de titular en ambos encuentros sabiendo que necesitaría el ida y vuelta del chileno en esta eliminatoria, pero lo sacó con el 3-0 en contra, aunque había sido uno de los mejores.

Sergi Busquets es intocable para el Txingurri, pero fue uno de los que peor estuvo en el mediocampo y no tuvo el temple para sacarlo.

El Barcelona se vio superado en la primera mitad, y el vasco decidió salir con los mismos once a la segunda parte.

Cuando trató de enmendar, ya tenía la eliminatoria empatada.

Ni él mismo vio el cuarto gol del Liverpool.

No es su característica, pero una semifinal a este nivel, se tiene que vivir con intensidad.

Los jugadores son los principales culpables de esta nueva debacle en Europa, pero Valverde podría ser el que pague los platos rotos.

Renovó por otro año hace unos meses, pero parece que esta eliminación podría ser la señal de que este ciclo ya terminó.

Queda la final de la Copa del Rey por disputar y podría volver a ganar un doblete.

Pero ha fallado en el objetivo principal. Creo que es hora de que Valverde diga adiós…

 

Alejandro Villegas es uno de los tres miembros de Cinco Razones Podcast. Escucha todos los episodios aquí.

 

Disqualification in the Derby

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It was another glorious first Saturday in May in Louisville, as the women dressed up to the nines, and the men wore their very best Seersucker suits.  The Kentucky Derby over the years, has become more of a Fashion, and beautiful people exposition, than the premier event for 3 year old thoroughbreds. But this writer happens to be a big fan of the sport year round, and not just when it’s time to spring for a $200 dollar hat for your wife that she will only wear once in her lifetime.  I’m a fan in November, when the Breeders Cup has come and gone, and next to nobody pays attention to Horse Racing.  So with everybody’s eyes on Churchill Downs on Saturday, I believe a great travesty was perpetrated.

Full Disclosure: I stood to gain (financially) from Maximum Security (#7) staying up as the winner of the 145th Kentucky Derby.
What happened on Saturday afternoon in the 145th Kentucky Derby was an outrage, and I should be upset by it, but the emotion that comes to mind is annoyance. The disqualification of Maximum Security (#7) and the elevation of Country House (#20) as the champion, was on it’s face, stupid. Country House was NOT interfered with, and was never impeded. He was out run to the wire. He lost. The only horse that had a rightful claim of Foul was War of Will (#1). Jockey Tyler Gaffalione did not claim a foul. War of Will’s trainer Mark Casse, said that he did not think that it was worth claiming a foul since his horse finished in 8th place. So a horse/jockey/trainer that had no business claiming a foul, in essence claimed it for somebody else, and then benefited from it. Congratulations to Country House/Flavien Prat/Bill Mott, I guess.

So, what do we have now? The owner of Maximum Security Gary West, is seeking to appeal the ruling, and after being denied (Kentucky law says the Stewards decision is final and cannot be challenged) is now contemplating going to Federal Court to address his grievance. We also got a declaration from Bill Mott (Country House’s trainer) that he will be shooting for the Belmont and will skip the Preakness Stakes, as will Maximum Security. So great, no rematch either. How could this get any worse? Well, it did, with blatant lies from jockey Flavien Prat and Hall of Fame Trainer Bill Mott. I mean, these two guys are great at what they do, but they evidently don’t understand the wonders of replay video. Too many Horse Racing analysts are waxing poetically about “safety”, “the rules”, the “spirit of the law” to justify the disqualification, and to be quite honest, it’s just not legitimate.

Here are the FACTS: The Stewards never posted the inquiry sign at the Race’s conclusion, so they themselves are saying that they saw nothing wrong. The one horse that had a real complaint (War of Will) never lodged an objection. A horse that was never interfered with and did not cross the wire first, got elevated to be the winner because they were just savvy enough to lodge a complaint for somebody else, and the Stewards were stupid enough to fall for it. So we have the first disqualification from first in the 145 year history of the Kentucky Derby.

Anyway, the money is gone. So where do we go from here? Easy. Country House has to win the Belmont Stakes, and probably another championship for 3 year olds to prove he is not a total fraud. Maximum Security just has to come back and be equal with the rest, and will likely win the Eclipse for best 3 year old in the land (after all, he “should” still be undefeated). In the end, We have an illegitimate Kentucky Derby champion, and the Triple Crown season is lost. To the casual fan, See you guys in October for Breeders Cup where we hopefully don’t do THIS again.

Derek Jeter’s actions mean more than hollow words

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When it comes to the state of the Miami Marlins, the words of CEO Derek Jeter mean almost nothing.

Not to say that the second-year chief executive is a liar, but when he makes a decision that’s impactful to the organization and offers no real explanation, then his words are merely hollow.

Chip Bowers was relieved of his duties as president of business operations on Thursday. Which meant Jeter was made available to reporters on Friday to find out why the seemingly sudden change in personnel. Bowers was a former Golden State Warriors marketing officer prior to joining the Marlins 14 months ago. He was tasked with negotiating for a new television deal and ballpark naming rights before his firing.

“It was a decision we didn’t make lightly, or spontaneously,” said Jeter, who also pointed out that the decision was made solely by him. “A lot of thought went into this. There’s a lot that goes on behind the scenes. We have an ownership group that has high expectations, and at times we move at a challenging pace.

“This has to do with our overall business strategy. We felt as though there was a change needed in the leadership group.”

A lot of factors went into this decision, according to Jeter. Factors that he had no interest in divulging despite the dutiful inquiries of the local media. When Local 10’s Will Manso asked Jeter about where the Marlins stands on revenue, he replied, “You keep going, I keep telling you I’m not going to go into details.”

This is more about Jeter than Bowers. As the CEO, everything runs though him. Because of his lack of details, his message usually falls on deaf ears. Even when trying to justify a course of action, there is nothing he’s been willing to say that a press release wouldn’t cover. What truly matters are his actions and the result, a cause and effect, if you will.

His actions produced a Hall of Fame career as a shortstop for the New York Yankees. His actions in Miami have put in place a rebuilding strategy similar to that of the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs, and a fresh rebrand. Marlins Park has been revamped with cooler ascetics and cheaper concessions without the sacrifice of quality. An internal effort has been made to cultivate a bilingual organization in Miami from players to staffers.

“Our ownership group has invested a lot of money into giving our team the tools to be successful,” Jeter said. “We have high expectations.”

The results so far is an improved minor league system with pitching prospects stacked from Single-A Jupiter to Triple-A New Orleans. But as of now, the big league club is once again in last place in front of low attendance. Those results are expected to change in due time, which requires patience that he admittedly lacks.

Jeter said he’s, “working hard on gaining the trust of our fan base,” but trust is a two-way street. Currently the fans don’t have enough trust in Jeter’s plan to come to the games and Jeter doesn’t have enough trust in the media to explain any of his moves with substance. He said as much in his Daily Show appearance in South Beach after the 2018 season.

This is the one occasion where you’re better off listening with your eyes than your ears.

AJR’s “Neotheater” transcends Pop Music

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AJR’s “Neotheater” is what you get when you mix the lyrical introspection of twenty one pilots, with the absurd production chops of Jon Bellion, and add a splash of Jack Antonoff’s knack to make make a record tell a complete story.

This album, as its title would suggest, is a new form of theater. The AJR brothers (Adam, Jack, and Ryan Met) made a record that could just as easily be turned into a Broadway musical as it is streamed on Spotify because of the themes it represents, its hidden reprises, and even its refusal to follow a single tempo for any given song. Whether that comes from a string section playing the chorus of an earlier song in the background of another track, or a lyric being brought back in a small sample, the album connects from top to bottom. (SPOILER ALERT: Check “Break My Face” for a piece of “Birthday Party”). “Neotheater” is a tale of twenty-somethings using simple questions combined with overarching themes of life to address the time and space in which the songwriters are in their lives, and that authenticity shines through every lyric, orchestral melody, and funky hip-hop beat.

From the top, “Neotheater” pays homage to a time where records accomplished the previously stated goal they set out for of completing a narrative. The use of 1920’s sounding harmonies off the top of “Next Up Forever,” the first track, straight into an electric sounding beat lets you know AJR is not going to stay within the confines of a traditional pop record.

Their previous album, “The Click,” explored some new territory in both lyrics and production, but this album felt like a conscious effort to take a risk and explore a new space. That’s something I admire in an artist or group.

Often times, an artist’s sense of comfort or fear of failure can lead them to attempt to duplicate success. It’s easy to make a carbon copy what you’ve done before and know your fans will like it. For example, the Plain White T’s did their best to duplicate the success of their hit, “Hey There Delilah,” with the knock off, “1234.” While “1234” was a fine song and it worked in part, what did it really accomplish in terms of artistry? (We’ll get back to “Hey There Delilah” in a bit…).

It’s the great ones who make every record unique to themselves but different from any of their previous work. It is actually something I greatly admire about Bruce Springsteen. Every Springsteen song certainly sounds like Springsteen, but each record takes on a new domain. When Bruce had smashing success with “Born to Run,” it would have been easy to pump out another 8-track record duplicating the folksiness of Thunder Road, attitude of Tenth Avenue Freeze-Out, anthem sound of Born to Run, and ballad of Jungleland falling 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th on the new album. Instead, he took 3 years and addressed his conflict with his record company and the negativity swirling around him while writing nearly 40 songs (10 of which made the cut) for “Darkness on the Edge of Town,” and he’s used that same process ever since.

AJR takes a similar path with this record in that they refuse to just write the same style of bops that came from the record before. Yes, there are a few “bangers” on this record, but lyrically, they almost feel accidental. Each song captures an emotion and the band makes a brilliant production choice in using an almost over-abundance of strings and horns. Similar to when you hear a piano melody in your favorite TV show that indicates a moment where you’re about to cry, the band taps into your subconscious. With the strings, you know it’s a moment of feeling the dramatic or deeper thoughts on the record, while with horns, you feel happy. There’s even a school bell ringing buried in production, but I’ll let you find that yourself. Nonetheless, each these choices tap into a specific feeling the band wants you to have while listening to a given song — whether that’s nostalgia, love, or hope.

Before I wrap up this long-winded way of saying, “This album was good and you should listen,” I do want to add a few quick notes about some individual songs’ lyrics concepts:

  • “Next Up Forever” — The concept of wanting to always be on the chase is relevant to any young person searching for the next step. In this case, in literal terms, it’s about the album, but it can be true to relationships, jobs, etc.
  • “Don’t Throw Out My Legos” — Anyone who has reached the moment of moving out of their parents house will cry listening to this song. There. I said it.
  • “Turning Out, Part ii” — I’m not sure I’ve heard a love song tackle this subject in this way. The overall concept is loving the idea of another person rather than actually having been in love with them and the tolls that can take on a person.
  • “Karma” — What happens when you feel you’ve been doing everything right but you haven’t quite found what you’re searching for quite yet? This song, set as a visit to the therapist’s office, delves into that.
  • “Dear Winter” — The one acoustic song on the record…if this doesn’t become the “Hey There Delilah” of this generation’s angsty teenagers, we riot. (See. I told you I’d bring it back)

AJR tackled a new domain with this album. They pushed the boundaries of pop music and quite literally told a story. I believe more artists should write this way. In the era of streams, many artists pump out a 2-minute song with a catchy hook to get you to listen as much as possible. AJR put out a complete record.

This is (technically) a sports site, so I’ll put it into sports terms. Mosts artists like Chris Davis — every once in a while they’ll avoid the strikeout and hit a homer, and they just have to live with those results because of the payoff. AJR made a Mike Trout-level record — it does all the little things well *and* consistently hits home runs.

So, anyway. Stream the album. Listen from it front to end. Pay respect to a group who made some music the right way. Cool? Cool.

(If you want more detail from the men themselves and are a music nerd like me, you’ll enjoy this breakdown in the link they tweet here.)

The Heat’s 2018-19: Making Sense of an Odd Season

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Just about any way you want to evaluate success, you have to come to the same conclusion regarding the 2018-19 season: it was not a success.

The Heat finished the season 39-43, which was short of the season total of 41.5 that was at the WestGate in Las Vegas prior to the start of the season. They failed to make the playoffs, which by Pat Riley’s own admission is the primary goal for his franchise every single season. Despite the overall sour note that the season ended on, there were still quite a few areas that should leave fans hopeful going into the off-season. Before we get into that, let’s touch on the brightest aspect of the team this season, which was the wonderful distraction that helped alleviate the more long-term concerns surrounding the franchise: Dwyane Wade’s final season.

#OneLastDance

The main plot line for the Heat season: Dwyane Wade’s #OneLastDance. With the team struggling to assert itself in a relatively open Eastern Conference, Dwyane became the focus of the Heat’s marketing efforts, especially once the Heat began falling out of the playoff race. Before I get into the statistics of a surprisingly effective year for the greatest player in Heat history, I’ll state that I was personally blown away by how effective he was this season. For a player with his history of injuries and physical contact, and his adjustment to a reserve role, it was remarkable that Wade could turn in his best season since his initial divorce with the Heat back in 2016. Let’s go through some of the areas that Dwyane really showed out and compare them to the last time he was that effective in those categories:

Games Played: 72 (Most since 2015-16)

Assists per 36 Minutes: 5.7 (Most since 2009-10)

3-Pointers Made: 86 (Most since his career high of 88 in 2008-09)

3-Pointers Attempted: 261 (Most since his career high of 278 in 2008-09)

3-Point Percentage: 33.0% (CAREER HIGH)

Assist to Turnover Ratio: 1.81 (Highest mark since he had a 1.81 AST/TO back in 2012-13)

Double Doubles: 4 (Most since 2013-14)

Dwyane (Benjamin) Button via Christian’s photoshop library

When you take a peek at Dwyane’s Synergy numbers, you see that he was still a productive and serviceable player on a team that competed all season trying to make the playoffs. Wade was in the 43rd percentile in isolation plays plus passes, 49th percentile in pick and rolls plus passes, and 44th percentile on post ups plus passes. Ranking right around league average in every major offensive play type shows that 37-year old Dwyane was still a useful player (and bolsters the argument that he could’ve kept playing). That argument gets even stronger when you see that Dwyane held opponents to 0.92 points per possessions in man defense, which was in the 55th percentile league wide.

Of course, what made Dwyane the truly dynamic player that he was was his ability to come up big in the most important moments. When the Heat were with in a game within 5 points with a minute or less remaining in regulation, Dwyane led the team in points scored, 3-pointers made, rebounds, assists, steals, AND blocks. He truly became the legend we all know and love in those final moments even in his final season.

While it’s somewhat disappointing that Wade didn’t get one last playoff appearance to ride into the sunset, I would argue that his career ending triple-double in Brooklyn was only possible because the Heat were eliminated from contention. Dwyane to Udonis for the jumper to complete Dwyane’s triple double will go down as one of the great plays in franchise history purely on nostalgia alone.

Farewell G.O.A.T. May you ride into the Valhalla of retirement and get to crushing bottles of wine on the golf course.

Dwyane catches eyes with the Basketball Gods looking down on him

#JustiseBetter

Nobody on the roster had a more significant season than Justise Winslow when it comes to a career prospective. He showed his first real signs that he could be a useful offensive player. His first two seasons in the league were mired with injuries and an inability to shoot with any consistency. Teams had left him open and dared him to beat them. Those days are officially behind him as he has expanded and grown his game in a variety of areas. Here are some the metrics that Justise improved in from 2017-18 to 2018-19:

As you can see, Justise improved his game in many ways, from finishing around the rim, to establishing his mid-range jumper, to expanding his use of his floater, to reaffirming that 2017-18’s 3-point improvement wasn’t an anomaly. Justise increased his 3-point rate by 22% this season and kept the same efficiency from behind the arc, which is a great sign for his future development. Having the confidence in his shot will enable him to work on other aspects of his game that he needs to improve, such as free throw shooting, finishing in the pick and roll, and finishing more reliably in transition. However, the most significant development for Justise was his leap as a floor general.

When Goran Dragic went down with a knee injury in December, Justise was called on to take the mantle of heading the Heat’s offense, and the team responded by winning 8 of their next 10 leading Spoelstra to declare Winslow the starting point guard moving forward. Even before this season, Winslow had showed flashes of being a capable playmaker, but getting thrust into the lead role gave him an opportunity to show off his facilitating instincts.

Part of what helped open things up for Justise is that last season he established himself as reliable 3-pointer shooter (38% on 129 attempts). That forces defenses to stay closer to him at the three-point line which opens up his ability initiate the drive and kick game. He also has the initial burst to beat his man and take it all the way to the rim, which is why it’s huge that he continues to improve his touch around the basket. Here is one of my favorite examples of how Justise’s established range allowed him to take a premier defender off the dribble and get to the rim.

Of course, often when you see an increase of a role on one end, sometimes things can slip a bit on the other end. Winslow had already established himself as a staunch defender heading into this season saw his defensive play slip a bit as he began exerting more effort and attention to the offensive end of the court. Justise was only in the 49th percentile in overall defense this season, which was down from the 65th percentile last season, and his peak in the 81st percentile his rookie season. Part of that though has to do with the positions he is being asked to defend, and moving forward, it would make more sense from a structural standpoint to treat him as a guard on both sides of the ball.

Analysis of Winslow’s Defense using NBA Stats Matchup Data and Basketball-Reference Position Estimate Data

As seen above, Winslow fared much better both in his ability to keep opponents from scoring (FG% & FT%) and in his ability to make plays defensively (TOV & BLK) when he defended guards and small wings (1-2.5) versus wings and bigs (3-5). While Winslow’s flexibility is one of his strengths, after 4 years in the league we are getting a very clear picture of who he is as a player and where his advantages are. Put the ball in his hands and stick him on the opposing team’s guards and build around him as such.

The Rise of BAM

This season brought the changing of the guard that the center position, as Bam Adebayo supplanted Hassan Whiteside as the team’s starter near the midway point. The irony of it all, and I supposed speaks to the upside that Bam has, is that Hassan might have had his best season as a NBA player in 2018-19. While I won’t be getting too deep into Hassan’s season in this article (I’ll have some words on him later this summer once he decides on his player option), part of his success this season was due to his strong play once he was demoted to a bench role, after Bam excelled while Whiteside was injured. In past seasons, Hassan did not react well to reduction in his playing time or getting benched in 4th quarters, but it seems he has put a lot of that behind him. That maturity I believe will help him prolong his career as he enters his 30’s.

Back to Adebayo, who in his age-21 season showed a lot of growth as the season progressed.

(stats above are per/36 minutes played; via NBA Stats)

As you can see above, Bam showed gradual improvement in almost every area of importance from the beginning of the season to the end. Post All-Star stats are especially revealing because that data set only includes Adebayo as a starter, and shows the he really embraced the role and continued to grow. To put Adebayo’s sophomore campaign into historical perspective…. he averaged better than 13 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block per 36 minutes , which has only ever been met by ONE player in NBA HISTORY who was age 21 or younger: Nikola Jokic. Jokic actually did it TWICE, at ages 20 and 21, and had been alone in that historical benchmark before Bam’s emergence this season.

While that is clearly a great sign for the young man, I’m not sure it’s realistic or fair to expect him to become a star floor general to the extent that Jokic is making a name for himself. Nekias Duncan, someone much smarter than me, mentioned in our Miami Heat Beat group chat that while Bam probably doesn’t have the ceiling from a play-making perspective to run an offense like Nikola does, he certainly has the ability to have an offense run through him. The big thing that’s missing? Reps.

Data via Synergy Sports

Bam’s role in his first two seasons has been fairly limited in terms of the variety of things the Heat require him to do, compared to his actual versatility. We won’t get a real idea of Bam’s true offensive ceiling until he gets the chance for a heavier share of the offense’s possessions. However, as you can see above, he already is proving himself worthy of offense running through him in the post, as his post possessions including passes had the Heat scoring 1.04 PPP this season. It is also fascinating to see that the Heat scored on every single possession where Bam was operating as the pick and roll handler. But again, it’s only 5 reps. That’s an area that I would like to see explored more next season.

Let’s also not forget that Bam is turning himself into an elite defensive big for the modern era of the NBA. His ability to defend all positions on the court improves the Heat’s ability to switch in pick and roll situations without getting themselves into a mismatch. Bam finished the season defending the 3rd most possessions on the team and holding opponents to 0.876 points per possession via Synergy Sports, which placed him in the 77th percentile league wide. He was second on the Heat in defensive percentile, only trailing Hassan Whiteside (86th percentile). At this stage the sky is the limit for the Kentucky product and, in my opinion, has the highest chance of reaching star potential of the players currently on the Heat’s roster.

SEASON’S END MAILBAG

I decided to ask the wonderful people on Twitter for some ideas on what topics to cover in this season ending long-form, so I compiled the best questions.

(Aside: Got to see Tone [pronounced Tony] at Wade’s final home game for a fleeting moment because the halftime breaks are too damn short, so it’s kinda fitting that he asked a handful of important questions that I will now answer.)

How efficient was Bam at jump shots?

24 of 74 (32.5%) before the All-Star Break

18 of 53 (34.0%) after the All-Star Break

Last season, Bam shot 27 of 90 (30% FG) on jumpers, so he definitely showed improvement over his rookie season. He has a good form and always looks comfortable despite the results. He’s also developing into a very reliable free throw shooter, as he shot 77% from the line after the all-star break. Free throw shooting is one of the best predictors when identifying talented shooters, so that makes you optimistic that Bam will continue improving his efficiency.

Where did Justise/Josh/Derrick/Bam lineups rank per 36 among the roster?

Last season, the Heat had 121 4-man combinations that played at least 50 minutes together. Winslow-Richardson-Jones Jr.-Adebayo lineups ranked 94th out of those 121 combos as the Heat were outscored by 11 points in those 57 minutes. When you run the search in terms of plus/minus per 36 minutes, this lineup then ranks 104th out of 121 combos at -8.2/36 minutes.

This still falls very much in the realm of small sample theater. In these 57 minutes, Justise had 18 points and 9 assists, though that was on 24 FGA along with 5 turnovers. McGruder and Waiters combined to go 0 for 6 from behind the arc in these minutes. What should give you some optimism is that the group was +11 in 24 minutes with Dwyane on the court. Maybe sharing the court with a veteran presence like Goran, which only happened for 1 minute all season, would help them succeed.

Was Goran actually good off the bench?

It shouldn’t be a big surprise that Goran was actually a more efficient player coming off the bench (44 FG%, 42.6 3P%) than when he was a starter (40.1 FG%, 31.4 3P%) in 2018-19. The bench role by default has players going up against reserves more often than not, which should make things a little easier, considering he plays the position with the most talent in the league. Despite that, there is still always a bit of uncertainty when you are asking an established player (that was an All-Star last season) to take a secondary role. Dragic has always been a consummate professional, and in exit interviews in April he was very open about the growth that Justise had showed and was not concerned about their fit or his role moving forward. If Spoelstra decides to use Goran as a 6th man going into next season, assuming he opts into his player option, you can expect him to excel against opposing B squads.

Has Josh Richardson peaked?

One of my biggest regrets to this day is that I still cannot see into the future. However, Josh is entering his age-26 season which means that he right in the middle of his physical prime. I would still have optimism that Josh will be able to improve parts of his game (finishing around the rim, refine shooting), but more than anything I believe he just needs a true #1 to take the attention off him. Josh did not show much in his one on one game (17th percentile in isolation plays via Synergy), but really broke through this season in his ability to operate in the pick and roll (67th percentile in pick and roll plays including passes via Synergy; 40th percentile in 17-18, 21st percentile in 16-17).

Josh has already established himself a premier 3-and-D player, so in that respect, he probably has peaked because I’m not sure he’ll ever take his game to an All-Star level. On the flip side, there were rumors that Josh was already playing through injuries before the groin injury that cost him the end of his season, so it’s also possible we have yet to see the best of JRich. Miami’s ability to support him with high end talent will also impact his ability to take his game to a higher level.

How much wood would a woo… nvm

It could be a lot. It could be a little. It really depends on the chuck-capable woodchuck. Could go either way.

Let’s go right to the source at Basketball-Reference and see how Josh Richardson compared to Jimmy Butler this season:

It’s fitting that these two players were almost traded for each other because there are a lot of similarities in their games and how they help their teams, as you can see by their similarities above in scoring, play-making, limiting turnovers, and efficient shooting at the wing position. Both players are fully capable secondary play-makers that can coordinate offense in stretches when needed, but really excel in situations where they can attack off-ball, as well as in the pick and roll.

Jimmy benefited from the attention that Embiid and Simmons (and now Harris) attract on the offensive end, and it resulted in being the more efficient scorer out of the two. You could even argue Embiid and Simmons’ presence on the defensive end helped Jimmy be more bold defensively, as he had the highest steal and block rates of his career this season. It’s important to keep that into consideration when so often Josh was left with large duties on both the offensive and defensive end on heavy minute loads on a regular basis. I suspect if Josh was in a more favorable environment like Jimmy, those comparables would be even closer.

An Ode to Airplane Mode

Since I didn’t get to mention Derrick at all despite his promising 2nd year with the Heat, I will provide you with a supercut of his most vicious and straight diabolical dunks from this season. Enjoy!

 

Christian Hernandez (@TheMapleRick of @MiaHeatBeat) has peaked, if you were wondering. We just can’t statistically prove it like he could. 

Marlins arms shine at times, but first month a struggle

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The Miami Marlins were the worst team in baseball the first month of the season.

As so many expected.

They scored only 82 runs up to May 1st, prior to the second game of the series against the Cleveland Indians, hitting just .225 as a team, with a .285 OBP and just 23 home runs.

The Marlins’ loss in the first game of the series meant they finished the month with a 8-21 record, eight games behind the East Division leaders, the Philadelphia Phillies.

For most of us who have to follow the team, it has been a very painful month of baseball.

Pitching is supposedly the name of the game, but it can’t do it all.

So let’s look at what has worked, and what hasn’t.

 

The positive for the Marlins in April

Caleb Smith has been the best of the five in the starting rotation, acting as the ace.

Sandy Alcántara sparked in his first outing of the year, but then has struggled to get back to that level.

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Pablo López and Trevor Richards have also shown what they can do at this level when they are on, but there’s still some inconsistency. They are still struggling to get out of big innings. The talent is there, though, and Marlins fans should be encouraged by their development.

In fact, Pablo is the Cy Young of the majors when he faces a lineup for the first time.

He hasn’t allowed runs in 10.1 IP, with 10 K, no walks and a hit by pitch.

Now he must figure out how to be effective for the second and third time facing major league baseball lineups.

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Down in the pen

Some arms in the bullpen have also impressed in the first month of the season.

Colombian pitcher Tyron Guerrero has mad adjustments in his mechanics and it’s now one of the most trusted arms in the bullpen. Picture by Tony Capobianco

Colombian fire thrower Tyron Guerrero worked on his mechanics and has allowed just two runs in 13.0 IP, with 15 Ks and 10 walks.

He’s been getting more and more opportunities in late and or close situations and for now has gotten the job done.

Nick Anderson is a special story, making his debut in the majors with the Marlins this year and has struck out 27 hitters in 13 innings, and opposing hitters are hitting just .188 against him so far (up to April 30th).

Nick Anderson, one of the great stories for the Marlins during the first month of the season. Picture by Tony Capobianco

He’s probably the best arm in that bullpen, and a weapon we didn’t foresee coming when we talked about the depth of before the season started.

 

What can’t get worse. Or can it?

Now that I brought your hopes a little up, it’s time to come back down.

This team needs to score more runs or risk setting a record for losses in a season.

Right now, this is looking like the 2018 Baltimore Orioles.

That team ended up with 47 wins and 115 losses, scoring 3.84 runs per game.

These 2019 Miami Marlins were averaging 2.82 before Wednesday’s game against Corey Kluber and the Indians.

Dominican infielder Starlin Castro is in the last season of his contract with the Marlins. Picture by Tony Capobianco

Guys like Starlin Castro (.248), Brian Anderson (.243) and Curtis Granderson (.188) are some of those who must be more productive for this franchise to win more games.

Jorge Alfaro, one of the best hitters of the team with a .286 average, with 5 homers and 9 RBIs, promised to our Leandro Soto on Wednesday that hitting was going to get better.

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And it can only get better, I guess.

But how? They don’t reach base enough, they don’t hit with power, and they don’t hit well with runners in scoring position.

Besides, they have not been able to hit then they do get those runners in scoring position.

It’s been a little better at times of late, so hopefully that continues.

Besides, May is here, as Jeremy Tache (The Five Reasons Sports Network’s resident Justin Timberlake) predicted, and it will probably be the time for some prospects (or just players with good starts in the minors) to start coming up.

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Harold Ramírez, Magneuris Sierra and Monte Harrison look like very interesting names, besides Austin Dean, who shouldn’t be sent down again so quick.

And, of course, pitcher Zac Gallen, but that requires an entire article of its own.

For now, just patience and more patience, Marlins fans.

And not enough offense.

 

Alejandro Villegas is one of the hosts of Cinco Razones Podcast. 

The Chosen Quarterback for the Dolphins

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In a galaxy, far, far, away, the Miami Dolphins once had the greatest quarterback of all-time.

As we all know, his name was Dan Marino.  And since the G.O.A.T retired shortly after the 1999 season, it has been anything but sunshine and roses for the once prestigious franchise in South Florida.

And as they waited patiently for the draft board to fall their way Thursday night, a seemingly impossible prospect mercifully fell into Miami’s lap.  After all, no one expected Dwayne Haskins to be available when the Dolphins were on the clock at 13.  And when he was, Chris Grier was faced with a tough decision.  In the end, Miami decided to draft Christian Wilkins.  A safe pick at an area of great need.

But what would Miami do to address the quarterback position?

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Flash forward –Day two of the draft.

All day, rumors were swirling surrounding a trade for Josh Rosen.  Many reports suggested that Miami did not want to part with pick #42.  Others led us to believe that Arizona would part with nothing less.  When the dust settled a trade was finally reached, but it wasn’t before a masterful haul from Chris Grier and his cronies with longtime friend Jeff Ireland.

Miami would continue to stash draft capital for the epic 2020 quarterback class.

However, the trade that would come next, has the potential to set the team up for long-term success at the most important position in football.

That’s right, folks.

The Miami Dolphins traded the 62nd-overall pick in 2019 and a 2020 fifth-round pick for the 22-year old quarterback from California, Josh Rosen.

Here’s a little background on Miami’s newest quarterback.

Biography

Full Name: Joshua Ballinger Lippincott Rosen

Date of Birth: February 10th, 1997

Height: 6’4

Weight: 218 LBS

College: UCLA

Hometown: Manhattan Beach, California

 

Want to see Josh Rosen’s YouTube page?

Here are five reasons why Josh Rosen is the Dolphins quarterback of the future.

Face of the Franchise

Over the last eighteen months, we have heard the #FakeNews surrounding Rosen’s mysterious ‘character concerns’.  However, very little evidence has ever actually been revealed.  In fact, everything that has been showcased over the last several months, suggest the complete opposite surrounding these concerns.  Nevertheless, the “get off my lawn” beat writers insist he has personality issues.

Here’s one example.

I am here to tell you there are no character concerns with Rosen.  None.  Zero. Zilch.

Honestly, very few professional athletes would have been able to stand by the wayside and watch as a franchise so eagerly moved on.  But Rosen did.

And while teams, anonymous sources, and other media outlets slandered his good name, he remained cool, calm and collected.

When Arizona watched the clock slowly drain, as they debated whether or not to go Kyler Murray or Nick Bosa, Rosen had an entirely different mindset.

And again on Monday, during his introductory press conference, nothing about Rosen looked the part of the monster he was perceived to be.

Truth is, Rosen possesses all of the traits you would desire in a franchise quarterback.

And he knows it.

When asked if he believes he can be a franchise-type quarterback, Rosen replied:

“Yes.  Because I think I am a good quarterback and I think I’m a good leader”

The Rookie Quarterback Model 

At just 22-years old, Rosen has a lot of football left to be played.  And anyone that believes this is just a ‘one-year audition’ is solely mistaken.  After all, the Dolphins just invested a second and fifth-round draft pick in the young quarterback.  He’s also only slated to make $6.5-million over the next three years, with a fourth-year option if they deem worthy.  As others have said, this is “pennies to the dollar”, and well worth the investment for a potential franchise quarterback.

Every year NFL teams begin to lay down the foundation, on how to successfully build an NFL roster.  The most popular as of late, is the rookie quarterback model.  This theory is simple, and needs a young-promising quarterback on a reasonably small contract to work.  This allows the team to use the “quarterback money” in other areas of need.  This plan works great now, but if the quarterback is good, it won’t be long before they’re rewarded handsomely with a new contract.

Case in point, the 2020 Dolphins have  $120-million and a plethora of draft picks at their disposal. If Rosen turns out to be a franchise quarterback, the Dolphins will have a ton of assets to build a sustainable winner.

Did you know Josh Rosen scored a 29 on his wonderlic?

‘FitzMagic’ to mentor ‘The Chosen One’

Must I remind everyone that the Dolphins still have 36-year old Ryan Fitzpatrick on the roster?  Anyone?  I didn’t think so. How could you forget that fur?

After the Dolphins were spurned by Teddy Bridgewater, one of the men known as ‘FitzMagic’ signed a 2-year deal worth $11-million with Miami this offseason.  It almost seemed like a forgone conclusion that he would be leading the team towards the first-overall pick in 2020, with his furry beard and flurry of interceptions.  Not.  So.  Fast.

With the Dolphins recent trade for Rosen, Fitzpatrick’s odds of starting have decreased substantially.  And unless Brian Flores and his coaching staff plan to prolong the inevitable, Rosen will be the week one starter vs Baltimore.  But that doesn’t have to mean the end for Fitzpatrick.  His 16-years of NFL experience will definitely be of value to a young quarterback that has had to adjust to six coordinators in the last five seasons. He’s been everywhere, including two of the teams in the AFC East.

When it comes to Rosen, Jim Caldwell and Chad O’Shea will have a blank slate.  Along with Fitzpatrick and Marino, they will look to turn Rosen into the elite franchise quarterback the franchise has long yearned for.

Tale of the Tape

And best of all, it’s risk free.

Yes, there may have been better players available when the Dolphins were on the clock at #48.  And maybe even again at #62.  But NONE of those players have the potential to be franchise-altering quarterbacks.  Not one of those players, possess the skill-set to succeed at the most important position on the 53-man roster.  Through all of the ups and downs of his short lived stint in Arizona, Rosen is a better man because of it.

When asked if it feels like a one-year tryout for the starting quarterback position, Rosen responded:

Yeah. I think regardless of (the) situation, I think you have to have the mentality that you’re trying (to do that) every single day. I think you hear quotes from the G.O.A.Ts like Tom (Brady) and Peyton (Manning) and all of them, and they’re saying that every year someone is trying to come in (and) replace them. Even if they’re not, they try to act like they are. Every single day they try to earn the respect of their teammates, which they already have. Every single day they try to earn the praise of their coaches, which they already have. I think whether that’s true or not, I’m going to have that kind of mindset like it’s my job every day, every hour and every minute to prove that I’m the guy.

After twenty long, excruciating years spent searching for the next great Dolphins quarterback.  A little bit of luck and perfect timing, has led the franchise to Marino’s heir apparent. The Chosen One.