Dragon Layers: What happens to the Heat’s Dragic?

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By finishing in 10th place in the East, this year marks the third season out of five since LeBron James’s departure in Summer ’14 that the Heat not only missed out on the playoffs, but did so by such a tiny margin as to land on the wrong end of the draft lottery ledger.  The overwhelming mediocrity of the roster that’s lingered over the past couple years, covered up briefly by the tropical blanket of Dwyane Wade’s final season, has not gone away.

Although there’s optimism surrounding with #TheKids, (especially with us at HeatBeat), the overriding fan perception is that the Miami Heat is a collection of unwanted, middling contracts for so-so players plus close-to-B-level prospects, with another potentially being added in this draft, unless the Heat move up from No. 13.

And this is for a team with the highest payroll in the NBA.

 

Reviewing Goran Dragic

Given all of this, perhaps the best symbol of their mediocre-to-weirdly okay situation going forward is Goran Dragic. He was never supposed to be their best player when the franchise traded for him in 2015, but it turned out that way after Bosh’s medical misfortunes and Dwyane’s departure. Yet that ended up being his role during most of his time here, with Hassan Whiteside (when engaged) as his second best player for most of that tenure, while the likes of Dion Waiters and James Johnson declined significantly after signing their contracts and never fully recovering from injuries. Although most of us appreciate his contributions and steadiness as Miami’s most reliable scorer over the past few seasons, Dragic has been on a decline of his own over that time as well.

Whether you’re going by his per-game numbers, his advanced stats or his efficiency from virtually every spot on the floor, it’s become clear that the man whose 33rd birthday is coming up next Monday has begun to play his age. The Heat know this, as was evident from their willingness to keep Justise Winslow as starting point guard for a significant period of time this season amid reports that it might remain that way going forward following Pat Riley’s season-end individual meetings with Dragic and Whiteside. This will surely be weighing on Goran and his agent’s mind with the 1-year, $19.2m player option he’s got coming up this summer, (June 29th, to be clear).

Summer Decisions

“I didn’t decide (anything) yet,” Dragic said after surprising fans and Chick Fil A customers in Doral last week during a ‘Random Acts of Heat’ appearance. “I didn’t think about it. I was just at home, having a good time with my kids, so still. I had a meeting with Pat and uh, that was it. I told him I’m going to make my decision when that comes, you know. So I still need to talk to my family, the agent. Right now, I just want to have two weeks to one month completely off to enjoy my vacation and then it’s gonna be time for business, and we will sit down and talk.”

 

 

The reality is this: although Dragic almost definitely wouldn’t get equal value or more somewhere else on a yearly basis, the opt-in might not actually be the best choice for him. Taking into account the aforementioned decline in his effectiveness and shift in future role, along with his age, his decline in drives/layups, the accompanying increase in threes and recently injured knee (he said it’s feeling better after his procedure and rest), Dragic’s best option may be to opt out and aim for a 3-4 year deal at a lower annual rate. That could project somewhere between $27-44 million, whether it be with the Heat or another team, even if Dragic hasn’t wavered at any point from speaking his love for Miami.

There’s a good argument that the Heat are best off if both Dragic and Whiteside opt-in for one more year if they won’t outright walk away and give the Heat cap room this summer. That would actually turn both of them into valuable expiring contracts that contenders would theoretically want, rather than having one or both of them cut into the team’s future money, even if they come at a more reasonable rate. The franchise has too many middling contracts that add up to a middling team as it is.

 

Option Options

However, I doubt Dragic opts out either way without more or less knowing where he’d end up and with what type of deal. It’s notable that the opt-in deadline is right before free agency will be key, with Dragic ranking as the relatively cheaper third option compared to the likes of Charlotte unrestricted free agent All-Star Kemba Walker and Memphis trade candidate Mike Conley. And if you envisioned Dragic as a sixth man for a team that signs a star in the summer, think again. The Heat would have to work some (pick-dealing) magic to create that kind of space, which doesn’t feel prudent.

Some options that come to mind for Dragic’s camp to leverage against the Heat with a long-term deal:

-The Dallas Mavericks have the Luka Doncic connection. Dragic played for years with Luka, including when they won the last Euro Cup tourney. That could be a free agency destination, and possibly a trade partner.

-The Utah Jazz, having lost out on dealing for Mike Conley, reportedly circled back with the Heat on a potential trade centered around Dragic for Ricky Rubio and Jae Crowder before talks died down when the Jazz asked for additional pick compensation.

-The Indiana Pacers will also have money to spend and have been reported to covet an upgrade at point guard, next to the returning Victor Oladipo.

-The Detroit Pistons, who were also in talks with the Grizzlies on Conley before the trade deadline, could also be looking for improvement he position. Perhaps the Heat take Reggie Jackson if the Pistons throw in enough draft compensation and/or young players.

Although most Heat fans (myself included) may prefer the cap space with two opt-outs, I’d bet that Dragic opts in. I’m not sure the Heat want to cut into future cap space with a long-term deal, unless of course he takes exception money, (of which the Heat can offer their room exception that starts at around $4.7 million per season). That doesn’t seem likely, as Pat Riley hinted towards at the same season’s-end presser where he called Justise Winslow “our primary ball handler to get us into offense.”

“Now you’re getting to a discussion I haven’t had with his agent or Goran,” Riley responded after being asked about a potential long-term deal with the option players. “You have to give the player time to think about it. We have to take a look at what our priorities are. If room is going to be one of [our objectives] in 2020, that would stop any longer deal with any one of them.”

If the question going forward is whether or not they are going young with their foundation, Riley helped answer that at his presser as well, and it didn’t exactly sound like he was including Dragic (or Whiteside) in those future plans. It sounds more like he would appreciate the cap room to try and attract other stars, whether it be this summer or the next.

“Justise’s improvement as is Josh’s improvement, and Bam’s, last 19-20 games, is indicative of a nice little core of young players,” Riley said. “We can add Derrick Jones Jr. to that and our pick this year and that will be good on the eyes of some possible free agents who want to come here, that’s all part of being an attractive place.”

The Heat’s chancest at acquiring an All-Star this summer are reliant on guys like Jimmy Butler and Kyrie Irving, who both have shown prior interest in the Heat and are both unrestricted free agents whose future with their current teams hinges on their playoff success and, more importantly, whether or not those teams offer them their 5-year max deals.

If the Heat feels they’ve got a real shot at one of them, they would need both of their own opt-outs as well as stretching out Ryan Anderson’s 1-year, $15.6m deal over three years to the tune of $5.2 million instead. This would give them about $25 million in cap space, which is still not enough for a full max slot. From there, they’d most likely have to turn to giving up a pick (whether this year’s or a future pick) to get another team to take on a contract like James Johnson’s, who is the oldest of the hefty contract bunch and the one with the largest contract left.

I’m expecting Dragic to opt-in unless he gets a lucrative long-term offer from a Playoff team. It could go either way, one might say.

 

But seriously, if we have seen the last of him in a Heat uniform, I sure as shit will miss his “adorable” smile and iron shoulder, the constant attack mode he’s in when the Heat get out in transition and his steadiness as someone who did the best they could in circumstances that could and should have been better.

But things don’t ever really go as they should, huh?

 

Alex Toledo (@TropicalBlanket) is known on Miami Heat Beat as a professional screwup, which makes him the opposite of Goran Dragic. Both have adorable faces to varying degrees.

Everything That Sucked About Avengers: Endgame (SPOILERS)

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SPOILER ALERT

******************

Stop reading if you don’t want the movie spoiled. This is your last warning. I’m not kidding. I’m gonna spoil the shit outta this movie. Okay, there, I warned you.

Before we even see the title screen, I’m crying. Hawkeye is in an open field, teaching his daughter to shoot a bow and arrow. His sons are playing catch. His wife is making dinner. I know what’s about to happen and I’m silently, futilely pleading with the screen to not do it. By the time the ash hits the sky, I’m a mess. Thank god the theater is dark. We’re only like two minutes into the movie. A few minutes later, Thor takes an axe to Thanos’ neck, sending his ginormous head tumbling to the ground. My jaw is on the floor. My emotions are all over the fucking place. HOW IS THIS ONLY THE FIRST 5% OF THE MOVIE?!????

And then it kinda just falls flat.

Okay, now let me get this outta the way before anyone gets super mad at the title of this post: Avengers: Endgame is a fine movie. It’s sufficiently good. At times, it straddles the border of great. Its best moments are exceptional. But even those can’t escape some of its worst moments. And those are the ones I wanna talk about.

Ok, let’s get to it then…

Fat Thor

After failing to stop Thanos and then chopping the titan’s head off in a futile act of frustration, Thor spends the next five years dealing with his feelings of inadequacy by living in a shack with his loser friends. Okay, fine, it’s a silly premise, but the rest of the storyline (the death, the destruction, the coping) is heavy enough that it can use a little humor here and there. The writers weren’t done, though, because apparently Thor has also spent the entire five years drinking enough beer to turn his body from something out of Homer’s Illiad to Homer Simpson.

Yes, Thor, God of Thunder, is played by Chris Hemsworth…wearing a fat suit. What. The. Fuck.

Hemsworth, himself, had made it known to the studio that he was bored with the role and wanted to do something a little different with it, which is understandable. The original Thor and Dark World were largely forgettable as movies, but also as a character. But Ragnarok showed that he could be fun. And Infinity War showed that he can be fucking awesome. So, obviously, the next logical step, riding the momentum of Thor’s dominant role in Infinity War…was to turn him in to Professor Klump.

The gag runs so long and so often through the movie that it makes what should be powerful moments seem entirely too light and stupid. There were many ways to handle Thor’s understandable downward spiral to rock bottom and his eventual comeback. This was literally the worst way.

 

Time Travel Yearbook

When you realized in Ant-Man and the Wasp that the Quantum Realm may hold the key to going back in time and defeating Thanos, it felt like that was opening the door for a truly amazing plot in Endgame. Noooope! Ultimately, what the writers chose to do with their time travel was take you on a tour of all the movies you already saw. Remember Avengers? Remember Winter Soldier?? Remember Thor 2??? (Wait, what, no, why would anyone wanna remember that????)

The most prominent scenes in the Marvel: Remember This? montage obviously, and rightfully, belong to Cap and Iron Man (with a little Ant-Man help). And the elevator scene alone is a perfect nod to a past movie and a huge moment from the Captain America comic book itself. But what could be a fun exploration of time travel and its possibilities quickly becomes one long Ocean’s 11 knock-off with the writers killing an hour of run time winking and nodding at you with all the subtlety of a Hulk smash.

I guess I understand. We all knew Chris Evans was hanging it up. Tony Stark had been trying to get out of the superhero business for the last four movies. This was the end. Give the fans some nostalgia, tie up the loose ends and give the characters their closure. And they did. But it went on entirely too long and came at the expense of making an actual movie with an actual plot, which became noticeable in scenes like…

 

Black Widow’s Death

SPOILER ALERT! Black Widow dies. Don’t worry, it’s not a memorable death at all. See, Hawkeye and Black Widow go to Vormir to retrieve the Soul Stone, but as we all know from Infinity War, you can’t just grab the stone and run. You have to throw something you love over the edge of a cliff first. In Infinity War, there’s a moment where your brain registers the thing Thanos loves juuuuuuust before Gamora does, and your heart breaks a little realizing what’s about to happen. This time, without the element of surprise, knowing that one of them was definitely going to die, the writers needed time to build the weight of the moment and truly establish their bond. They needed an extra 15 minutes for character development. (Hey, if only we hadn’t gone back to meet Iron Man’s dad!)

Instead, what we got was…*checks notes*…a fight scene. Not even a good one. Hawkeye and Black Widow literally tripping over each other to decide who gets to commit suicide first, like we would all joke about doing on Twitter if Trump were re-elected. I was secretly hoping they both fell off the cliff and nobody got the stone.

 

Tha…nope Get it? Like Thanos, but with nope. Never mind.

There was a lot less Thanos in this movie than there should have been. He’s a masterpiece of a villain. Perfectly portrayed. Perfectly acted. I mean, he’s enormous and purple, but still seems entirely human. You never get the feeling that he’s too cheesy or over-the-top. Not using him more when the story is literally about him seems like a huge fucking waste. And when you finally get to the fight between The Mad Titan and the heroes at the end, you’re like “Ohhhhhh, shit, so this is what this movie could have been!”

 

Girl Power

During the large scale fight scene at the end, there’s this moment where all of the female characters come together to kick some ass for about seven seconds before it returns to largely ignoring women altogether. It was incredibly heavy-handed and specifically put in the movie to get #GIRLPOWER trending on Twitter. And it was totally unearned. You killed off most of the cool women in Infinity War, sacrificed Black Widow for a Hawkeye storyline that you probably won’t even pursue, and sent Captain Marvel away for most of this movie to run intergalactic errands. But, sure, girl power!

 

A. THREE. HOUR. MOVIE.

Are you fucking kidding me? I have the bladder of a camel and even I spent the last 45 minutes of the movie crossing my legs to hold my piss so I wouldn’t miss anything.

 

 

Josh Rosen has Character Issues? A Ballscast Investigation
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Over the weekend, the Miami Dolphins made a draft day trade that had DolphinsTwitter losing their collective shit for three-straight days and nights.  The Fins sent a second round pick to the Arizona Cardinals for quarterback Josh Rosen — who was picked 10th overall by the team (who was run by an entirely different front office then) in last year’s draft. So, was it a good trade? Was it a bad trade? Have you ever asked a girl on a date?

Here’s what we do know: Josh Rosen is now a Miami Dolphin and, along with questions about his playing ability, come questions about his character.

People — and by people, we mean FOOTBALLLLLLL People — have questioned whether or not The Hebrew Hammer has the right character to be a franchise quarterback that can lead a FOOTBAAAAAALLLL team. Does he have the DESIRE? Does he EAT, DRINK, SMELL, SHIT, FUCK Football 24/7? Is he a leader of MEN? And, most, importantly, does he love the TROOOOPS?

This kind of shitbaggery analysis from the NFL Network Meatheads of the world has dogged Rosen ever since his days at UCLA because he had the AUDACITY to have a hot tub in his dorm room. COLLEGE IS FOR BOOK LEARNING AND STUDYING GAME FILM ONLY, JOSHUA. But it all came to a head over Draft weekend when the Miami Herald’s own Harbinger of Dog Whistle Hot Takes & Lover of All Things Sarah Palin, Armando Salguero, put out a tweet where he said multiple sources of his told him that Rosen the person was a concern more than Rosen the quarterback.

The immediate response here is to assume that ArMAGA went and made up these so-called sources to try and paint Rosen as a troubled guy, mainly because Rosen once wore a Fuck Trump hat on one of Donald Trump’s golf courses in California. And given Salguero’s well-documented outspoken nature over how much he hates it when players kneel to protest the unjustified murder and violence white cops have perpetrated against black men over the years, and his undaunted love for Sarah Palin, one could be right in assuming he made his sources up and just had a tight asshole about the idea of having  to cover a Trump hatin’ quarterback for a living.

There’s no way to prove any of this. So we won’t speculate or accuse. But, we will rub our chin and squint our eyes and say things like, “Hmmm seems mighty fishy that a MAGA-loving toadface like Salguero would blurt shit out about Rosen’s character for no reason whatsoever except maybe because Rosen hates Trump just as the Dolphins were on the brink of trading for him.”

So does Rosen have a questionable character? Could Arrrrrrrmando be onto something here? TO THE NEWS ARCHIVES, ROBIN!

Here’s what’s been reported about Rosen’s so-called “troubled character” over the years. And please keep in mind that most people who work in, cover, and write about football for a living are Neanderthaloid meatheaded shitsacks of the highest order:

 

Exhibit A: HE ONCE WORE A FUCK TRUMP HAT

Back in April of 2016, Rosen posted a photo of himself on Instagram on a Trump golf course wearing a homemade hat that read Fuck Trump. He eventually ended up deleting the photo, but only because he was scared the word “Fuck” might send the wrong message to kids that looked up to him (not so much because he hates Donald Trump). But the photo had entered the media’s bloodstream by that point and it became a thing. So much so that his then-UCLA coach Jim Mora Jr. compared Rosen wearing a Fuck Trump hat to the kinds shenanigans Johnny Manziel ended up doing, because making a political statement and getting shit-faced every other night are the same thing. “Who do you want to be?” Mora asked Rosen at the time. “Do you want to be Johnny Manziel or do you want to be Tom Brady?”

Mora also added: “So, if you’re going to go out on Donald Trump’s golf course and wear a hat that says ‘F– Trump,’ […] you’re heading towards Johnny Manziel.’ So, let’s head toward Peyton Manning. Let’s head towards Tom Brady.”

That’s right, Josh. Head towards Tom Brady, who would never wear a Fuck Trump hat, but instead only wear an actual hat that openly supports Donald Trump (and is a hat that is associated with racists alt-right shitbags). Head towards Peyton Manning, who never wore a Fuck Trump hat on a Donald Trump golf course but, instead, golfed with the actual Donald Trump during an actual terrorist attack.

A white quarterback that hates Trump? PREPOSTEROUS.

 

Exhibit B: HE HAD A HOT TUB IN HIS DORM

Yes. He had a hot tub in his UCLA dorm room and took a photo with a girl sitting in the hot tub with him. So the Miami Dolphins quarterback is Otter from Animal House rather than fucking Neidermeyer or Marmalard.

Remember when Dan Marino allegedly did all of the cocaine at Pitt? And entered the draft with a reputation of loving to party like they do during the “Push It To The Limit” Scarface montage?

This just in: COLLEGE ATHLETES HAVE WAY MORE SEX THAN YOU WILL EVER HAVE IN YOUR LIFETIME. SO MUCH SEX. SHITLOADS OF SEX. BUCKETS OF SEX. SEX-BUCKETS! YOU CAN’T EVEN IMAGINE ALL OF THE SEX THESE GUYS ARE HAVING RIGHT NOW. LITERALLY, RIGHT NOW AS YOU’RE READING THIS.

Sorry to have to break it to you, but there it is.

 

Exhibit C: HE THINKS COLLEGE PLAYERS SHOULD GET PAID

In May 2016, Rosen put up an Instagram post in reaction to the what was, at the time, the biggest shoe and apparel deal ever signed by the NCAA. The deal was worth $280 million, and Rosen posted the news with this comment: “We’re still amateurs though… Gotta love nonprofits #NCAA”

Here, and in a separate interview, Rosen was making a point about how student athletes are asked to stretch their lives to the brink of insanity, balancing class and sports and life, all while the powers-that-be at the top of the NCAA are diving into piles of money like Scrooge McDuck. Wherever you stand on this issue, Rosen has his opinions, and is outspoken about it. LET US NAIL HIM TO A TREE AND THROW PRODUCE AND HUMAN FECES AT HIM.

 

Exhibit D: HE’S COCKY

Look at that cocky boy cocky shit so cocky.

Fuck that. I don’t want a quarterback with a chip on their shoulder over being snubbed by teams that passed him up. That’s just douchey. And, if history has proven ANYTHING, it’s that douchey quarterbacks with chips on their shoulders don’t win DIDDLYSHIT.

Also, the Patriots looked into trading for Rosen this weekend. That team does NOT like douchey players. Google it!

 

Exhibit E: HE UNFOLLOWED THE CARDINALS ON SOCIAL MEDIA

With all the news swirling about how the Cardinals were about to draft Kyler Murray and throw Rosen into the proverbial trash bin like old lumps of cat shit, Rosen acted cool and classy and said all the right things. Then when they actually drafted Murray, Rosen went ahead and unfollowed the team on social media.

This sent Steve Smith into a large hissy about Rosen’s manhood or some such shit.

HOW DARE HE UNFOLLOW THE TEAM WHERE LITERALLY EVERY PHOTO THEY POSTED WAS ABOUT THE GUY WHO REPLACED HIM.

I dunno about you guys, but if you unfollow a girl after she dumps you and then plasters her IG with photos of her new guy, YOU HAVE LOST YOUR TESTICLES. WHERE ARE THEY? THEY HAVE BEEN DELETED.

 

Exhibit F: MAYBE HE’S ACTUALLY A DECENT PERSON

Call us crazy but, based on all evidence above, Josh Rosen is just a human who lives the life of a human. OMG HE IS JUST LIKE US.

He has and likes to express political views. And he likes to have sex, probably in a hot tub.

While both of those things are usually okay for everyday people, it’s evidently VERBOTEN for professional football players who should only live to play football and win games on Sundays, because hands in the dirt, cupcake!

Here’s a pre-draft tweet about Rosen:

YOU CAN ONLY BE A PLAYER OF FOOTBALL. NOTHING ELSE.

Oh and here’s FOOTBALL GUY WHO IS GOOD AT FOOTBALL, JJ Watt, calling bullshit on that sentiment:

OH BUT JJ WATT NEVER PLAYED WITH ROSEN WHAT DOES HE KNOW?

Ok, let’s see what his teammates have said:

Oh.

And then there’s this, where America’s Greatest Ass says of Rosen:

“He’s a delightful person to be around. Anybody that spends any time with him, he’s got a vast array of interests, and he’s a very, very interesting person. I’ve enjoyed my time getting to know him.”

 

The Verdict: JOSH ROSEN IS A PERFECTLY FINE PERSON SO SHUT YOUR GD FACEHOLE ABOUT IT ALREADY

Sifting through the evidence, it’s pretty clear that the only real crime Josh Rosen has committed is that he likes to live life like everyone else. But because football is a Borg-like collective where players are only allowed to live and eat and shit football, talent evaluators (guys who never sleep, have zero humor, and get fired every 3-to-5 years) began to express concerns.

It’s likely that Josh Rosen is disliked by a lot of people because, for the first time in their football lives, a guy doesn’t fit the normal mold of what an NFL quarterback should be. You know, the kind that likes to do things outside of work, like literally every other human on Earth. And their troglodytic brains can’t handle it.

A quarterback who likes girls and hot tubs? UNHEARD OF.

A white quarterback that has political views different from the other white quarterbacks? WHY I NEVER.

A quarterback who is cocky and arrogant about his skills? WHERE IS MY FAINTING CHAIR?

This isn’t the kind of quarterback NFL teams want. They want the archetype.

They want the kind of quarterback that votes for Donald Trump. The kind that spouts cliches about grit to the media. The kind that allegedly rapes women and gets away with it, while winning Super Bowls.

THOSE ARE THE REAL HEROES.

Anyway, Josh Rosen seems like a decent enough dude. Does he come across as douchey sometimes? Meh, I guess. But what quarterback doesn’t have a modicum of douche? It just comes with the position.

Just because he isn’t hip to your definition on how to live his own life, and just because he isn’t a fan of your Racist Serial Sexual Assaulter Orange Bucket of Shit of a President doesn’t make him a bad person.

 

Chris Joseph (@ByChrisJoseph) is a host of Ballscast, and has written for Deadspin, Miami New Times, CBS Sports, and several other outlets.

Why the Marlins have won the J.T. Realmuto trade

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I admit it. I was wrong about Christian Yelich.

I never thought the guy would be much more than someone who hit .290 with 20 homers a year — a great player who you’d love to have on your team, but well worth trading during a rebuild. I still understand why the Marlins made the trade they did with the specific offers they had regardless of the club control. I said it then and I will continue to say they had their reasons and I can respect that.

That said, I never anticipated Yelich would turn into arguably the most dominant hitter in Major League Baseball, and for that, I have to own my mistakes. This hurts. The Pete Davidson lookalike is an absolute superstar, and that trade may end up haunting the Marlins for years to come. I don’t think anyone quite saw THIS coming, but I was pretty bullish he’d come back down to earth, and now, through 28 games, he’s on pace for 81 homers. This is me publicly admitting to all of you — mostly @Dutchbeek, but still, all of you — that I was wrong.

But, as my favorite player of all-time would say…

I’m going to go out on a limb and say it: I believe we can already definitively say the Marlins won the J.T. Realmuto trade regardless of what the rest of J.T.’s career looks like. He could have a Hall of Fame career and win multiple MVP’s (and I, personally, think there’s a chance that could happen because J.T. is a star…), but it wouldn’t affect how I feel. It’s a foolish take that my Swings and Mishes host Craig Mish would likely scold me for, but I have 100% sold myself on it. Sue me.

The reasoning is simple: Jorge Alfaro is a legitimate, every day, Major League ballplayer.

Sixto Sanchez was the “game-changing” prospect you hope to receive in a trade for an All-Star — a guy that jumps to the very top of all your prospects lists and is getting Pedro Martinez comparisons — and, for what it’s worth, I’m a serious Will Stewart truther, but it’ll be a bit before we can judge the two of them.

Alfaro’s play alone is what already has me sold on the success of the swap.

It’s been 27 games of Alfaro in a Marlins uniform, and while that’s technically not enough to tell whether or not a player can be a star, his play has me excited. He was not the headlining piece of the trade, but, as a 26-year-old, he’s playing like he would be.

I know, I know. I’m the perennial optimist. My first article on this site simply told you wins and losses didn’t matter this season and just to enjoy close games. That ludicrous. I am aware. I get why you might be annoyed with the positivity, but get used to it because

Alfaro, who had a pretty solid start to his career in Philadelphia, has been the only player in a lackluster Marlins lineup that’s produced with any form of eye-catching consistency. In fact, after Saturday’s game against the Phillies, the catcher is hitting .297 — that’s 19 points higher Realmuto so far this year and 9 points higher than the next Marlin. Add that to a team leading 5 homers, all of which have been to the opposite field, and it feels like you might cooking with gas.

While those stats might not mean much to you quite yet, this should. According to the MLB statcast leaderboard, Alfaro is among the best in the bigs when it comes to Hard Hit Rate — that’s hitting the ball 95+ mph when the ball is put in play. So, what does that actually mean? To me, it shows while Alfaro is playing at a high level, he still has room for growth.

I don’t know if you all know this, but Marlins Park is…well…it’s large. When you combine that with Alfaro’s Hard Hit Rate, you can make the reasonable assumption that his power numbers *might* look even better if he was playing elsewhere.

The reality is, Alfaro is a legitimate building block. That’s more than you can say at this point for any of the other pieces the Marlins received in the trades for Stanton, Ozuna, and Yelich with 100% confidence.

Of the pieces we’ve seen get legitimate playing time with the big club, Castro is a relative placeholder, Alcantara has shown flashes but has been inconsistent, and we can still hold out hope on Lewis Brinson, but I’ve seen enough know Alfaro is capable of being a piece on this roster for the next decade.

Alfaro is someone with the ability to be a leader on this team going forward, as well. He cares enough about the game to ask to not leave a Spring Training game after colliding with the wall chasing down a pop fly. When I had a conversation with him about Jorge Posada joining the organization, he got emotional while discussing what he can learn from the Yankee great. He has talked about being his pitchers’ “bodyguards.”

With Martin Prado, Curtis Granderson, and Neil Walker likely gone after this season, the Marlins will need someone to step into the primary leadership role, and Alfaro is a likely candidate.

Considering Realmuto was likely to leave Miami after the two remaining years of his contract were up, isn’t this about all you could ask for?

So, regardless of if J.T. Realmuto all of a sudden does that “you’re a moron, Jeremy Tache” thing and hits 40 homers a year for the rest of his career, we can feel good about the net result of this trade. Alfaro is here to stay, and when this season is over, he may be one of the only players in the lineup we can look back on with positivity to have us excited for next year.

Guys, the Marlins made a very good trade for one of their stars. Allow yourself to feel good about it.

(Writer’s note: In 2 years, if J.T. signs somewhere other than Philadelphia and Sixto Sanchez and Jorge Alfaro is the Marlins’ Opening Day battery, you can bet I’ll be here writing a follow up “I told you so” piece.)

Dolphins take an unnecessary risk on Rosen

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“Day Traders” often execute what is known in Stock Market parlance as a “Channel Trade.”

A “channel” is a tight trend line for a stock price, that goes from Support (down) to Resistance (up), consistently. This very tight trend is often called “consolidation” when the sentiment on the stock is positive. “The Street” considers this pattern, a sign of a dead/battleground stock, not to be invested in. The Day Trader however, can use this pattern, and the consistency of it for profit. In reality, what you are buying is not an appreciating asset, or something with growth potential. You are using technical factors for short term gain.

The Miami Dolphins just executed a channel trade.

Chris Grier, the general manager, executed a master stroke with the New Orleans Saints, by trading #48, and #116 for picks #62, and #202, and a 2020 second round pick. This move did come at some cost, (the 48th overall was positioned to get you any one of many good players available) but there was another shoe to drop soon. The Dolphins then quickly pivoted to shipping the 62nd overall, and a 2020 5th round pick to the Arizona Cardinals for former 10th overall pick in 2018, quarterback Josh Rosen.

Good trade, bad trade? What always matters is the player. Rosen was demonstrably awful last season, and on the face of it, this is a bad trade.

But no, what is the downside, asks the optimist.

“You got a 2020 2nd rounder.”

“He is not owed any real money.”

“He can still develop.”

These are the things being said to justify this trade. Yes, you recovered a 2nd rounder in the trade with New Orleans. But that does not make the picks you traded for Rosen expendable. Just the opposite. They are a waste. A channel trade made for a short term gain, with little chance for growth and, in my view, much greater downside potential than people think.

 

Full disclosure, I would have taken Josh Rosen at #11 in the 2018 NFL Draft, and said so on our 2018 NFL Draft Preview on the Three Yards Per Carry podcast.

I am not doing an “about face” however. I am making a new decision based on further information. You have outliers such as Troy Aikman, players that had very rough rookie campaigns that then went on to successful careers. But usually, if a QB prospect is destined to be good, he tends to show it right away. So, Rosen had some moments however, that make you think there is “more” there? Right? Right? Hello?

No. He did not. This is not hyperbole.

Josh Rosen played 14 games as a rookie. Of those 14 games, Rosen had below league average numbers, in completions, yards and passer rating in all 14 games. He had above league average numbers in QBR and yards per attempt once. Rosen’s 2018 campaign was historic in its futility, and it is rare,that a rookie QB never, ever, not once, shows any promise during that season. Rosen also managed to be extremely careless with the football. His 14 interceptions and his 10 fumbles made this one of the worst QB seasons in NFL history.

But he went 10th overall, and you get him for #62 this year!

No. He went 10th overall, and depreciated into a trade to recoup assets that were used to move up in 2018, while declaring a total loss. This was a liquidation sale. This trade, by any measure, was lopsided in Arizona’s favor. Josh Rosen had/has no value. The Cardinals had no leverage. The Dolphins accommodated Arizona by buying its quickly depreciating asset. Why? What for? The Dolphins now own that asset, and all that comes with it. The poor play, the whispers of his difficult personality, the wasted time devoted to his development, and the risk that it endangers plans to explore the 2020 QB class.

Even if the most likely scenario happens (Josh Rosen flames out in 2019, and the Dolphins are right in the thick of the QB prospect derby) you are still out the picks you paid for essentially a backup QB. This was wasteful management of draft capital. Think of this: What would Rosen need to do, short of becoming a star in year 2, to justify this trade? There is no way you won’t entertain the stacked QB class of 2020. So #62 and a 2020 5th rd. pick for a 1 year rental? For what? The surest way to damage the franchise, and get yourself and others around you fired is to keep buying increasing shares of depreciating assets. That is what occurred here. I remain hopeful about Chris Grier, but no longer as optimistic. As a fan of the team, I want him to succeed, so Josh Rosen just gained a big fan, but a short term outlook and chasing the assets of yesterday are a bad look and, worse, a bad sign.

 

Alfredo Arteaga (@UptownReport) is a host of Three Yards Per Carry. Photo screenshot taken from @Josh3Rosen.

Dolphins’ pick of Wilkins seems safe, smart

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DAVIE – How about it, Dolfans, are you jumping for joy about the pick of Christian Wilkins in the first round Thursday?

The ebullient defensive tackle from Clemson was after Miami selected him with the 13th pick. Wilkins was so delighted he leaped shoulder-first into stunned NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and followed it up with a chest bump and bear hug.

Whether or not Miami GM Chris Grier and Co. made the right call in selecting Wilkins over Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins – there were several other solid options on the boards at several positions – will be the debate that follows this Dolphins draft.

The first one to weigh in on that was Wilkins.

“He told us it was the best decision we ever made when we picked him,” Grier said.

Wilkins is immediately likable and interesting, and certainly not lacking for confidence. He said he can’t wait to get to Miami and try to help fill the void of Dwyane Wade’s retirement.

He’s got a winning personality. Now he must back it up on the field. That will take time to play out.

But it’s tough to quibble with the first choice. If the Dolphins considered Haskins the quarterback they’ve been seeking, he was there for them. Some other teams with quarterback needs also lacked conviction about Haskins before the Redskins took him two picks after the Dolphins grabbed Wilkins.

The big surprise was the Giants picking Duke’s Daniel Jones at No. 6. They will groom him as the successor to Eli Manning, whom he resembles in stature and style.

But the current NFL quarterback that most comes to mind in watching Jones is Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins, who showed some interest in Jones in recent weeks, certainly didn’t need to reprise that episode.

It was no surprise Miami opted for a defense player, considering coach Brian Flores’ background as a defensive coach in New England. Marion Hobby, the Dolphins’ new defensive line coach, recruited Wilkins and coached him as an assistant at Clemson.

What the Dolphins got Thursday was a needed building block. If this rebuilding team doesn’t lay a solid foundation on the offensive and defensive lines it won’t get far.

For all their shortcomings in 2018, none was more glaring than their inability to stop anyone.

An offensive lineman in one of the next two rounds would make sense with only Laremy Tunsil the only starter with pedigree.

Eventually, they must find a quarterback to lead them into playoff contention. But the available quarterback choices didn’t seem worthy of the No. 13 pick this time. As Grier pointed out recently, quarterbacks in the first round are hit-and-miss.

They may yet select a quarterback in this draft to compete with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, or that may become the top priority in 2020, when Tua Tagovailoa heads what is regarded as a loaded crop of passers.

The Dolphins have plenty of work to do in roster building before then. That began and continues the next two days.

This draft carries extra importance for the Dolphins because they have committed to building with young talent after striking out with high-priced free agents and other veteran signees in recent years.

 For this to be a clear success they need to land starting level talent in the first three rounds. It’s not easy to do, but it’s long past time for the Dolphins to exceed the norm.

Poor drafting has held Miami back for the past two decades and a big reason they’ve won just one game in the postseason this millennium.

This is Grier’s fourth year directing the Dolphins’ draft. The previous three have been a mixed bag in the crucial top three rounds.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, Laremy Tunsil and Xavien Howard were solid editions. Others, including Charles Harris, Mike Gesicki and Cordrea Tankersley have yet to pan out, and linebackers Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker are starters but still have some convincing to do that they are long-term answers.

Wilkins looks like a solid choice to start with. If the No. 1 pick was correct in his assessment, Grier only needs six comparable decisions over the next two days.

 

Craig Davis (@CraigDavisRuns) is a veteran newspaper writer who now contributes to Dolphin Maven and Five Reasons Sports, among other outlets. 

With the 13th pick, the Miami Dolphins select…

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Today is the day, folks.

After months of speculating and smokescreens, the 2019 NFL Draft is finally upon us.

And unlike year’s past, NO ONE knows what the Dolphins plan to do during this weekend’s draft.

What we do know, however, is that the team has a plethora of holes to fill.  Miami desperately needs to address; quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, defensive back and safety.  Wide receiver and linebacker could also be viewed as positions of need.  Nonetheless, Chris Grier and his hired henchman, will look to find elite talent at areas of need.

Here’s a look at what the contributors at Five Reasons Sports believe the Dolphins will do in the first round.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Chris Wittyngham – Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
” I judge the NFL Draft based off of who did I fear the University of Miami playing. It’s why Daniel Jones can’t be good as an NFL player. I didn’t even know there was an NFL Draft pick opposing UM at quarterback when they played. And I didn’t know there was an NFL Draft pick opposing UM at quarterback after they played, even though Duke beat the Hurricanes. In that vein, the proposition of UM fraudulently winning the coastal and being smashed by Clemson up front was enough to make me not want UM to win the Coastal. So Clelin Ferrell it is.”

 

Ethan Skolnick – TRADE DOWN

What will the Dolphins likely do Thursday?

What they did so often under genius Adam Gase.
Punt.
Only this time it will be for the best. Miami isn’t one player, or two players, or even five players away. This is the time to accumulate picks, the way Jimmy Johnson did in 1996 and 1997. Take as many shots as you can. Maybe there’s a Zach Thomas in there somewhere.
So my guess: trade down, probably trade out of the first round.

 

Ricky J. Marc – Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
“It really seems like the Dolphins, after nearly two decades of post-Marino mediocrity, are prepared to turn over the kind of new leaf that has been at least seven years coming. Miami needs a QB. Say what you will about Marino’s legacy as it concerns winning a Super Bowl, but Miami hasn’t even been within striking distance of serious contention since the franchise’s last great rifleman retired.
Dwayne Haskins has the potential to be the best QB in this draft in what is likely another throwaway season for Miami. He finished in the top five last season in completion rate with 70% and third in the running for the Heisman Trophy. If he pans out under Flores, great—Miami has a quarterback for the future. If he doesn’t, life goes on. I just want to see some talent at the QB again.
Oh, and I’m still waiting for Miami to sign Colin Kaepernick. Clock’s ticking, Mr. Ross.”

 

Jeremy Tache – Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

“Because Dolphins”

 

Tito Benach –  Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

“The Dolphins go with Wilkins to pair him next to Davon Godchaux and shore up their run defense that hasn’t been a very productive unit in a long time. Adding Wilkins, a powerful and agile 3 technique, would be the first step to fixing the defensive line and open lanes for the linebackers to make more plays at the line of scrimmage.

The tempting option would be to potentially select an edge rusher; Clelin Ferrel and Montez Sweat seem like popular names, but reports have surfaced that Sweat’s medicals have scared teams off and he could slide as a result and Ferrel may even be taken before 13. For that reason, Dolphins take Wilkins and have two young, solid defensive tackles.”

 

Tony Capobianco – Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
“Lock it in!”

 

Carlos Jorge – Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
“I believe they will trade back. But if they stay at 13, I think the pick will be Wilkins from Clemson. It’s good place to start a rebuild in the trenches! Defense wins championships “

 

Josh Houtz – Jeffrey Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
“A lot of uncertainty surrounds the Dolphins and the #13 pick.  They could trade down, or up, depending on the talent available when Chris Grier is on the clock.  Haskins won’t be available and the odds of Jawaan Taylor or Jonah Williams falling out of the top-10 is slim to none.  Yes, there are plenty of defensive line options, but none more talented than Mississippi State’s Jeffrey Simmons.  He might not be able to play in 2019, but for a team looking to #tank this upcoming season, a red-shirt like Simmons is the right fit.  I bet Brian Flores is licking his chops at the very thought of Simmons in South Beach.”
Who do you think the Dolphins will select in the first-round?

Thirteen possible players for the Dolphins

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The NFL Draft is one day away.

I repeat, the 2019 NFL Draft is one day away.

With the draft quickly approaching, NFL teams are beginning to finalize their draft boards in anticipation for the big day.  After all, teams anxiously await for the draft every year, as it remains the last hurdle before the new NFL season begins.  Free Agency will remain the mainstay for adding proven talent for way, way too much money.  But good teams are built through the draft and that’s exactly what the new regime is hoping to accomplish.

Miami currently holds six picks in the 2019 draft.  Which means unless an elite player falls helplessly into their lap at 13, they’re going to move heaven and hell to trade down.  That’s not to say it will work, or that an elite player won’t fall, but the Dolphins are going to be on the move this draft season.  And will look to sure up their biggest needs which include [ QB/OL/DL/DB/S ]

Here are 13 potential players the Dolphins could select at #13 in this year’s NFL draft.

Dwayne Haskins, Quarterback, Ohio State

The odds that Dwayne Haskins falls to the Dolphins at #13 have seemingly increased over the last several weeks.  And depending on who you ask, Haskins has slowly become the No.3 QB according to respected experts and analysts alike.  Personally, I think he has all the traits you look for in a franchise quarterback.  And if somehow, someway he’s still available when the Dolphins are on the clock, you run to the podium with the pick.  Oh yeah, and for those who don’t recall, Stephen Ross was in attendance for the Wolverines game vs Ohio State this past season.  Michigan came into the game with the country’s No.1 ranked defense, before Dwayne Haskins completed 20/31 for 396 yards and 6 touchdowns.  For better or for worse, it got Stephen Ross’ attention.

Ed Oliver, Defensive Tackle , Houston

We continue to hear Ed Oliver’s name mocked to the Miami Dolphins, but for what reason I do not know.  The versatile defensive lineman from Houston, amassed 54 total tackles in 2018.  Dig a little deeper and you will see his 14.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks.  Throughout this draft process, Oliver has been the one player highly regarded by many as the next Aaaron Donald.  Now I know what you’re thinking, there’s no way this dude is that good.  Maybe not.  But to think he’s going to be available for the Dolphins in any scenario, is extremely unlikely.  Simply put,  Ed Oliver is the Minkah Fitzpatrick pick in this class.  His versatility is perfect for what Brian Flores and his coaching staff desire on the defensive line.  And if he’s available when Miami is on the clock, the pick could not be any easier.

Jaawan Taylor, Offensive Tackle, Florida

Drafting an offensive lineman with a top-15 draft pick will never be the sexy choice.  But once you start to realize how valuable trench play is to the success of an NFL team, it doesn’t look so bad on the surface.  After all, the ‘trenches’ is where games are won and loss.  And it’s safe to say several games in 2018 were lost due to poor offensive line play.  (Cough, Cincinnati, Cough) Nevertheless, after being outbid for Ja’Wuan James during free agency, the Dolphins have an opening at right tackle.  Yes, Jesse Davis is a potential in-house replacement, but Taylor is the best of this year’s class.  If quarterback is the plan in 2020, building the offensive line is a very wise decision.  Especially if the target is left-handed QB Tua Tagovailoa.

Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State

Every year, there’s a player or two I become enamored with throughout the draft process.  This year, that player is Florida State’s Brian Burns.  In 2018, Burns combined for 10 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 53 total tackles.  He was a pass rushing maven and proved  he could play at a multitude of positions on the Seminole’s defensive line.  His lanky frame isn’t overly concerning, but Burns could definitely benefit from adding additional mass at the next level.    Adding Burns to a Dolphins defense severely lacking a pass rusher would be a very smart move towards creating one of the league’s top defenses.

Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

As we have heard from some of the NFL’s biggest draft analysts, Montez Sweat might not be the best player on Mississippi State’s defensive line.  In fact, Jeffrey Simmons would likely be a top-5 pick if he were healthy.  A recent medical red-flag regarding his heart condition, has some teams rearranging their draft boards.  Again, a trade down would be ideal. but I fully expect Sweat to be drafted at the back end of round one, or top of round 2.  I believe Sweat will have success in the NFL, despite his concerns.

Christian Wilkins, Defensive Tackle, Clemson

Miami’s new defensive line coach is Marion Hobby, who spent several years with the Clemson Tigers.  Hobby has familiarity with many of Clemson’s top draft prospects, including Dexter Lawrence, Clelin Ferrell, and the aforementioned Wilkins.  Throughout his collegiate career, Wilkins proved to be a difference maker all over the Tiger’s defensive line.  And despite not getting a ton of recognition as one of the draft’s top prospects, it would surprise no one if his name was called before the bottom half of the draft.  Miami’s defense could use a player with his versatility and skill-set.

Jonah Williams, Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Much like Taylor, Williams could very well be off the board by the time the Dolphins are on the clock at 13.  Nevertheless, he’s a versatile lineman that has played against some of the best pass rushers in college football.  His ability to play offensive tackle and offensive guard at an elite level, makes him an intriguing prospect for every team desperate for offensive line help.  Williams should make a near flawless transition to the NFL game, and could be a Pro Bowl starter in year one.

Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson

Ferrell was a dominant run-stopper at Clemson and as 3 Yard’s Per Carry reported earlier this week, has a very good relationship with Dolphins defensive line coach Marion Hobby.  Ferrell does all the little things right and as I mentioned in the recent weeks, he reminds me of a younger, faster William Hayes.  Hayes, who many remember, was stout vs the run.  He also made an impact as a pass rusher.  I see Ferrell as a more polished prospect than Charles Harris.  I would not be surprised one bit if Ferrell is the pick at 13.

Jeffery Simmons, Defensive Tackle, Mississippi State

Simmons has slowly become my favorite option for the team at 13.  Miami is unlikely to compete in 2019, so taking a red-shirt freshman that can fully recover and make an impact when the Dolphins are ready to compete would be in the team’s best interest.  Obviously, a trade down would be ideal.  But you can’t pass on an opportunity to draft an elite player..  During his 2018 campaign he amassed 63 total tackles, 18 for loss and 2 sacks.

Greedy Williams, Cornerback, LSU

Williams, by most accounts, is considered the top defensive back in this year’s class.  And as Alfred Arteaga of 3 Yards Per Carry has mentioned over the last several weeks, he’s a legit possibility for the Dolphins at 13.  Williams might be the best press corner in this year’s class, which is a significant need for a team that has Xavien Howard and Bobby McCain as their top defensive backs.  That is assuming Flores decides to keep Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety.  Nevertheless, drafting Williams would be a great pick for a team looking to transition to a dime defense.

Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan

Ask anyone what the Dolphins biggest need is outside of quarterback, and pass rusher should be at the top of that list.  Unfortunately for Gary, a recent report of a torn labrum could see him fall mercifully in Thursday’s draft.  His boom or bust potential has always made him an intriguing prospect for Miami at 13.  And then there’s the obvious Michigan ties, which has to be a positive for the Wolverine’s top booster, Stephen Ross.  Gary should still go in round one, but would be a more obvious choice via trade down.  Nonetheless, whichever team drafts him, should get a versatile starter for many years to come.

Andre Dillard, Offensive Tackle, Washington State

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI5Ie9iob3A

In recent weeks, Dillard has sky-rocketed up NFL team’s draft boards.  A one time late first-round pick, could find himself drafted within the top-15 of Thursday’s draft.  Dillard may be better in pass protection than Taylor, but the difference between the two prospects is minor. If Miami is truly all in on Tua in 2020, they will need a right tackle to protect his blindside.  Aside from Taylor and Williams, Dillard is the top tackle in this year’s class.  Offensive lineman might not be a sexy pick, but he would make an immediate impact opposite of Laremy Tunsil, for many, many years to come.

Drew Lock, Quarterback, Missouri

Lock is a wildcard and for a team enamored by Josh Allen a year ago, if he falls their could be some interest.  After all, Lock is a more accurate and polished passer than Allen.  The only significant difference is Allen’s rocket launcher of an arm.  Denver seems like an obvious choice for the Missouri quarterback but if he’s available at 13, the Dolphins could be faced with a tough decision.  Should they wait until 2020? Or take a quarterback that could be a starter in the NFL for many years to come.  Whatever they decide, if a quarterback is their choice, the internal clock will begin ticking for Chris Grier and Brian Flores.

Josh Houtz (@Houtz) cooks in his spare time, when he’s not working on 65 things for Five Reasons Sports Network and Dolphin Maven

 

Premier League

Manchester City vs. Liverpool: The Final Countdown

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With two goals from Bernardo Silva (’54) and second-half substitute Leroy Sané (’66), defending champions Manchester City have defeated crosstown rivals Manchester United 2-0 in yet another edition of the Manchester Derby.

The win moves City temporarily (?) past league leaders Liverpool FC atop the table with three games to play and a sizable goal differential lead.

This is it.

Three Premier League games will decide this season’s Premier League Champion.

Not surprisingly, with the Premier League title still up for grabs, it’s now down to the following clubs:

Manchester City: the defending champion, who became the first Premier League club to finish a campaign with 100 points total in 2017-18, winning the title in dominating fashion; and

Liverpool FC: the upstart contenders dating back to the second half of last season, themselves emulating City’s 2018 start with an unbeaten run of their own behind the dazzling play of Mo Salah, Sadio Mané, and Roberto Firmino.

Salah, tied for the league lead in goals scored (19), has been named one of TIME’s 100 most influential people.

Liverpool have three Premier League matches remaining: Huddersfield (20th), Newcastle (13th), and Wolves (7th). Huddersfield have already been relegated.

In between those matches, they have two Champions League semifinal matches with European powerhouse FC Barcelona.

After finishing as runners-up to Real Madrid in last season’s UEFA Champions League campaign, Liverpool will be faced with the decision of prioritizing which matches to field a full team for stamina purposes.

This will surely tax Liverpool’s reserves. The Reds last won the Champions League in 2004-05.

Like Liverpool, City also have three matches left: Leicester City (10th), Burnley (15th), and Brighton & Hove Albion (17th). Brighton, just three points clear of relegation (34 points), will fight to ensure that they don’t trade places with Cardiff City (31 points) between now and mid-May.

With just three matches left (and nine points up for grabs), anything is possible.

Leicester will be fighting with Wolves for 7th, so none of these fixtures should be treated as easy wins for City.

City also have an FA Cup Final vs. Watford to concern themselves with, but that won’t be a worry until after the Premier League champion has been decided.

Because of tonight’s victory over United, City can become back-to-back Premier League champions by winning out, becoming the first club to repeat since United did it in 2008-09.

However, should Liverpool win out and City drop points with a draw or loss, the lead will remain firmly with the Reds, effectively crowning them champions for the first time since 1990-91, when they won the English Football League.

UPDATE: Here is how the Premier League will be decided this coming weekend.

The final breakdown for the Premier League’s last day, as it concerns Manchester City and Liverpool.

So who will be crowned champion? Stay tuned to NBC Sports—it’s setting up to be a wild finish this season.

—

Born in Brooklyn and raised in Boca Raton, Ricky J. Marc is an alumnus of the Obama White House and Cornell Paris Institute, a former Florida Senate Legislative Aide, and a graduate of St. Thomas University with a Master of Science in Sports Administration, where he is also currently completing his Juris Doctor degree.

You can follow him on Twitter at @RickyJMarc.

Should the Heat Take a Flier on DeMarcus Cousins?

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If you stay up for West Coast playoff games, you’re being treated — and I use that term loosely — to the Kevin Durant Revenge Tour.

Following the largest single-game collapse in playoff history, Durant has led the Golden State Warriors to back-to-back double digit wins. He went for an efficient 38-4-7 in Game 3, then followed that up with 33-7-6 in Game 4.

Noticeably missing from those wins was DeMarcus Cousins. The former All-Star is likely done for the postseason after tearing his quad. It’s a disappointing end to a season that was trending upwards. Cousins took a (financial) gamble on himself by accepting the mid-level exception in hopes of setting himself up for a big payday this summer. The injury obviously compromises that goal.

Enter the Miami Heat.

Well, maybe.

As of now, the Heat aren’t expected to have cap space. That could change, depending on what Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic decide to do with their player options. If both players opt out, the Heat could have roughly $15 million in cap space to play with. It’s not quite enough to get in the room for superstars like Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving, but that could put them in the room for guys that fall a couple of tiers below that level.

It’s hard to envision anyone throwing a long-term, high-dollar deal at Cousins at this point. He’s suffered a torn Achilles and a torn quad in consecutive seasons. Hitching your wagon to Cousins without proof that he’ll be a high level player — or that he can hold up — would essentially be malpractice.

A one-year flier, however, is an interesting scenario to think about. If the price range falls between $5-8 million (mid-level exception range), the Heat could be an intriguing option for Cousins. If the Heat have any edge right now, it’s the reputation of getting reclamation projects paid.

WHY IT MAKES SENSE

Quick — who is Miami’s best scorer?

Did you answer Dion Waiters, the bulky guard with the quick first step and even quicker trigger?

Is it Goran Dragic, equipped with his Iron Shoulder and fancy footwork?

How about Josh Richardson, the Heat’s leading scorer with a budding pull-up game?

Regardless of who you chose, did you feel good about your answer? I would imagine the answer is no.

This is where the flier begins to make sense. For a team that lacks a reliable go-to option, Cousins could possibly provide that. As a glorified 4th option, Cousins averaged 16.2 points in a little under 26 minutes a night this season.

Much like the year before, Cousins flashed the ability to dictate games from the mid-post and in. He’s able to devastate weaker defenders with his brute strength on the low block. If he doesn’t put defenders underneath the hoop, he has an array of fakes and impressive footwork at his disposal to get to his spots.

What makes him more dangerous is his passing ability. The Warriors liked to station him at the elbow — and sometimes here — to get into their post split action. Cousins was able to showcase the nice touch he has on bounce passes and lobs.

If Cousins simply returns to the form he showed this season, he’d be Miami’s most dynamic scorer and, at worst, their third best passer. It’s easy to envision him drawing help on the low block, then kicking it out to either Josh Richardson or Justise Winslow for them to attack a scrambling defense. For a Heat team that struggled to score, they need someone that can force defenses to rotate on a whim. Cousins can be that guy.

A lineup of Winslow,Waiters, Richardson, Bam Adebayo, and Cousins would feature five players that can pass and attack bent defenses. You would have to bank on Cousins regaining form as a shooter (27.4 percent on 3.2 attempts last year), but I’d argue that giving him more interior touches would allow him to establish a rhythm easier. Cousins wouldn’t make the Heat a top-ten offense on his own, but pushing the Heat towards the middle of the pack would be a massive win.

WHY IT DOESN’T MAKE SENSE

For a lot of folks, I imagine what Cousins could bring to the offense would outweigh any concerns they may have about his impact on the other end of the floor. I can’t pretend to be that guy.

Cousins was mostly fine as an interior defender. Via Synergy, opponents scored 0.541 points per post-up possession against Cousins, a mark that placed him in the 98th percentile. Opponents shot a shade over 45.1 percent at the basket (non-post ups) against Cousins, a stat that also comes courtesy of Synergy.

But this is when I remind you that Cousins spent 457 of his 771 minutes (nearly 60 percent) with Draymond Green and Klay Thompson on the floor with him. The Warriors had a 104.3 defensive rating in those minutes; that number ballooned to 115.4 with those two off the floor.

It’s much easier for big men to protect the rim when driving opportunities are limited, and the lanes are cramped when they get there. Still, Cousins is insanely strong and has quick hands in his own right. He’s averaged at least 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks in seven of his nine seasons.

But if you’re looking for the Heat to return to the playoffs and make legitimate noise, you have to think about who can be effective in a playoff setting. Cousins’ inability to defend in space leaves him susceptible to high pick-and-roll attacks. He isn’t nimble enough to hang with guards on switches, nor does he recover out to stretch bigs in a timely manner. With the torn quad, it’s possible he looks even worse on that end next year.

What would that look like in a series against, say, the Boston Celtics if they retain Kyrie Irving and Al Horford?

The Heat have a host of fine defenders; the Winslow-Richardson-Adebayo trio is incredibly rangy. But it may be pretty difficult to cover for him enough to make his offensive talents worth it.

Even that portion of the fit is questionable, depending on what your view of #TheKids are. If you feel like Adebayo could have a trajectory similar to Toronto’s Pascal Siakam, or if there’s another level for Winslow to reach, prioritizing (cheaper) spacers so they can soak up more on-ball reps may be a better long-term play.

 

Nekias Duncan (@NekiasNBA) of Miami Heat Beat is currently taking a flier on Game of Thrones.