The Trump Legacy: A Light-Skinned Opinion

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I’m not going to read the Mueller Report. Not all of it. I will digest the snippets posted online that are spun in the direction that is preferable to me. I will share these snippets on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook and join the raging debate to nowhere.

Because it isn’t going to matter. He’s going to get away with it. The president obstructed justice – blatantly and in plain sight – and there will be no consequences. Maybe there will be political fallout, maybe he won’t get reelected. But that’s not a real consequence. Donald Trump will emerge from office whether in 2020 or 2024 more powerful and influential than ever. He will spread his message of hate, xenophobia and racism all over the world and will receive a hero’s welcome from Israel to Saudi Arabia to his beloved Mother Russia.

We, the American people will feel the real consequences. Because the toothpaste is out of the tube now. All of the norms are out of the window and we are left with a political free-for-all. What Trump has done most effectively is that he’s revealed the fragility of our systems. The careful checks and balances put in place by our flawed founders has kinda worked for almost 250 years. This thing is broken and I’m not sure we know how to fix it.

But you know what? Good.

Maybe Trump’s lasting legacy is that his lack of couth has unveiled the shady back room dealing that has existed in every presidential administration. Is Trump anymore despicable than Reagan, Bush or Cheney? Is his depravity worse than Clinton? Does he have less blood on his hands than Obama? Maybe . . . maybe not. What Trump lacks is the political and moral dexterity that has allowed silver-tongued orators to piss on our heads and tell us it’s raining. Trump just pisses on us. He tells us he’s pissing on us. He brags about pissing on us. But when confronted with his pissing, he tells us he’s never peed in his life. His lies are bold and obvious.

He crashes through the norms clumsily and brazenly. He contemplates war on twitter instead of in the situation room. But is that any worse than illegally funding revolutions in South America with money gained from selling drugs to minorities? Because that’s what Reagan and Bush did. They just didn’t tell you they were doing it. We found out years later, after crack destroyed a generation of black families. The perpetrators are dead or dying now. Their legacies are celebrated and whitewashed. They are remembered as heroes and great men, because they were able to carry themselves presidentially.

Trump doesn’t care about being presidential. He’s not concerned with appearances. His disgusting behavior is on full peacock-like display. Clinton grabbed ‘em by the pussy . . . he was just too ashamed to admit it. Trump is not encumbered by shame or morality. He doesn’t have time for that crap. He’s got babies to put in cages and Muslims to threaten.

Trump is the side of politics and governing that rarely sees the light of day. And maybe we needed to finally see it. We all knew it was there, but we lie to ourselves and fall in love with the next slick-talking devil who promises us a better tomorrow with a wink and a nod to their buddies in the financial district.

I probably sound like I’ve lost hope and it’s because I have. I miss the days of blissfully believing Obama was going to fix the world and pave the roads with gold. I miss suspecting George W. Bush was quietly racist but having at least an ounce of doubt. Maybe he was just an idiot. I miss the plausible deniability of it all, the ignorance of believing my vote and mind wasn’t shaped by memes from a Russian troll farm. I miss being lied to more gracefully.

The only hope I have left is that the shattering of our political naivete will result in real change and future accountability. That we will see through the bullshit and elect men and women vastly different than the ones that have littered our past.

But we’ll probably just elect Joe Biden.

Marlins offense hits rock bottom, maybe

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The Marlins have hit rock bottom.

Probably.

We hope, anyway.

Anyone that pays even a little attention to baseball knows that the 2019 Miami Marlins weren’t going to be good. They’re only in year two of the rebuild and most of their best prospects are still in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues. Despite that, there’s still reason to be optimistic about the outlook of the Marlins. They have two top 100 prospects, which is a huge upgrade from just a year ago, and they have some other promising prospects that will soon help— Monte Harrison and Zac Gallen.

But for right now, the Major League team is historically bad.

The Marlins were just swept by the Cubs and have fallen to 4-15 on the year. Wednesday’s 6-0 loss was the 5th time this season that the Marlins have been shut out and it’s the 9th game that they have scored 1 or less runs. That’s 47% of their games where they have either been shutout or scored one run or less. They’re currently on pace to win 35 games.

The infamous 1962 New York Mets won 40.

Yes, it’s still early. Twenty games isn’t the largest sample for a 162 game season, but when you’re a team that lacks talent in the Major League level and don’t have much reinforcement coming up in the Minors, it’s time to panic.

In hopes to boost their offense, they called up Isaac Galloway, who is a career minor leaguer and has only hit 10 home runs once in his 10 years in the minors.

So, just how bad has the Marlins offense been? Let’s breakdown these numbers.

The Marlins have scored just 48 runs so far this season, which is by far the lowest in the league. The second lowest belongs to the Colorado Rockies who have scored 59.

The 48 runs average to 2.59 runs per game, which is on pace to be the lowest scoring offense in MLB history. The 1981 Blue Jays— who were the worst offense ever, averaged about a half run more.

Here’s the thing though; they can’t score runs because they simply can’t create them. When you don’t have the talent to score runs, you have to try to manufacture or create them. The Marlins can’t do either.  They have the 25th worse wRC+ (weighted runs created) in baseball and the 27th worst wOBA (weighted on base average).

One of the biggest reasons for such low numbers in major offensive categories is because of the glaring flaw the Marlins have: every single hitter has a bad approach.

To be noted however, they signed and grew guys who were never on base heavy guys. Now it’s really showing. They currently have the 28th worse BB% in baseball at 6.9. Brian Anderson has the highest on base percentage on the team at .308 with the league average OBP% at .320, for reference.

As far as other advance stats categories go, the Marlins find themselves in the bottom 5 of almost every one.

In power numbers, they rank 28th in ISO, 27th in slugging and 26th in OPS.

For Marlins fans out there watching these games—and lord knows they are painful to watch— you just have to remember that this is a process and better days are ahead.

(Hopefully.)

 

Michael (Dutch) Sonbeek is hitting .237 this season on his Twitter takes, which would put him in the upper echelon on the Marlins. 

Marlins and Rays: Same state, different present

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Marlins and Rays are living two very different moments.

Florida has always been divided into two.

For most of us that live in the South, anything past West Palm Beach is almost another state.
In sports, rivalries have emerged crossing that line.
FSU and UM play every year in each sport what can be highlighted as the most bitter of the rivalries in our state.
In professional baseball, Florida is a young adult and this type of rivalry doesn’t exist.
Tampa and Miami were the two cities picked by Major League Baseball for its expansions.
The Marlins came to the league in 1993 along with the Colorado Rockies.
The Rays began to play in 1998 along with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Marlins advanced to the postseason for the first time in 1997 and ended up winning the World Series in a thrilling seven-game series walk-off by Colombian shortstop Edgar Renteria against the Cleveland Indians.
The Rays entered the league while their southbound neighbors were the kings of the league, just four years after playing their first game in the stadium with the thousand names.
In 2008 they won the American League Championship Series beating the Boston Red Sox and then lost the World Series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
In that regard, the Marlins have been more successful.
Miami has won two World Series, while Tampa is still looking for their first one.
However, Tampa fans should be more proud of what they are seeing from their team than what people in Miami are.
Neither of the two teams has a solid fanbase. In fact, the number of fans for both franchises in really sad.

Especially for the Rays, who have been putting a great product on the field.

Last season, they won 90 games and failed to make the playoffs, behind two incredible teams.

Tampa as an example for Miami

Are the Rays an example for the Marlins?

Maybe.

The Rays have managed to build competitive teams to compete in one of the most complicated divisions in baseball.

Playing against the Yankees and Red Sox more than thirty times per year makes it harder than any other divisions.

David Price, Evan Longoria, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Archer, and company are just some of the names that have left the organization via trade or free agency.

However, they have found a way to build competitive teams without big names.

Blake Snell is a superstar now. He won the Cy Young in 2018 and is the face of the organization.

But who else is there?

Homegrown talent. And a mixture of factors…

Check their lineup for the first game of the series against the Orioles.

Nothing impressive, but they are the best team in the majors.

What can the Marlins copy?

Tampa has the best pitching in the league so far with a pitching staff mostly composed by players that came through their farm system and some arms acquired in the international market.

The Marlins have the 21st best ERA in MLB. But we’re not going to talk about Wei-Yin Chen here.

Pitching has been fine so far. Besides that guy…

They’re young and they’ll be better as they continue to grow as Major League Baseball pitchers, and not just flame throwers.

Smart free agency and trades

The Rays have had a much better eye when it comes to free agency and getting the best out of regular players.

This year, they added Cuban utility Yandy Díaz, who never received a real opportunity in Cleveland and outfielder Avisaíl García, and somehow have revived players like Austin Meadows.

Young players that have not performed in other places, do well in Tropicana Field.

The Marlins have brought mostly veterans trying to have them as an example for the young guys.

However, they have not performed on the field, and have actually taken some playing time from the younger players available in the roster.

Cameron Maybin, Curtis Granderson, and even Ichiro (mostly a marketing move at that point), have been some of the names that have not fulfill the expectations.

What is it about the Rays that Marlins are not picking up?

It’s worth a look up north for the fish…

 

Alejandro Villegas is one of our contributors of Cinco Razones Podcast, the only podcast in Spanish in the Five Reasons Sports Network. Check Cinco Razones clicking here.

 

For Brian Flores, it starts from the bottom

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DAVIE — This is all uncharted territory to Brian Flores.
No, not referring to the transition of a fledgling NFL coach. That is obvious and a path every long-time assistant must traverse in ascending to the top spot.
What is most foreign to Flores is the situation he finds himself in with the Miami Dolphins. As was pointed out to him prior to Tuesday’s start of minicamp, the roster he has been given to work with is very thin, in experience and accomplishment.
A team in the early stages of rebuilding has spent most of the offseason subtracting salaries and recognizable names.
Flores has no frame of reference to that after the past 15 years as an assistant with the New England Patriots, where each offseason is matter of reload and carry on for a run at another Super Bowl.
Slim pickings on roster
Right now there aren’t enough offensive linemen for two full units. Scan the group and it appears to be Laremy Tunsil and the Pretenders. (Zach Sterup, whose experience has mostly been on the practice squad the past two seasons, was at the opposite tackle from Tunsil on Tuesday, taking the place of Ja’Wuan James, who signed a big contract with Denver.)
There are way too many glaring holes left in Miami than can be filled by next week’s draft and the dwindling free-agent talent pool.
Flores, who took the reins of the Dolphins the day after winning his fourth Super Bowl with the Patriots, is dealing with the task in the only way he knows.
“The guys we have, however many or however little, we’re going to do everything we can to help those guys improve, help those guys become the best version of themselves,” he said. “I tell those guys to take it one play at a time, and I’ve got to practice what I preach. That’s kind of my object over the next few days.”
Granted, the whole roster isn’t as inexperienced as Durval Queiroz Neto, the Brazilian defensive tackle allocated to Miami via the International Player Pathway Program. Queiroz, known in Brazil as Duzão, is a former judo champion who hasn’t played football in the United States.
“I think this is a great time for him to be here because it’s strictly fundamentals, it’s strictly technique, it’s the most basic part of football where you’re laying a foundation down,” Flores said of minicamp.
Nonetheless, there is a glaring lack of names on the current list who have advanced far beyond the basic level of NFL experience, particularly on defense, Flores’ forte.
Cameron Wake is gone. So is Robert Quinn. With Reshad Jones electing not to take part in the voluntary workouts, there is reason to believe he may join the exodus before the season begins.
Miami wasteland for coaches
Flores is the latest in a long list of coaches beginning their first head job in the NFL — the seventh, in fact, since Dave Wannstedt succeeded Jimmy Johnson in 2000 (not including three interim coaches).
The challenge he faces is as steep any of them have undertaken. None of the others have succeeded in returning the Dolphins to prominence.
Flores has the benefit of all of that winning in New England to call on. But he also has to contend with that example within the division.
As of Tuesday, the first time on the field with his new team, Flores said, “I’m living my dream. This enters the phase that I’m used to and I enjoy the most. I’m passionate about coaching football, so today is a special for me.”
Time will tell whether Flores can sustain that dream better than so many predecessors who have fallen by the wayside in Miami.
Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns
This originally appeared on our sister site Dolphin Maven

5 Draft Day Trades for your Miami Dolphins

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We’re getting closer.

Now it’s less than 10 days until the 2019 NFL Draft, and there’s still considerable smoke about what the Miami Dolphins might do. They could stay put with all their current picks, of course, though that doesn’t seem likely with Chris Grier’s history. The man likes to move.

Here are a few of the countless options….

 

THE REALISTIC

Miami Dolphins trade pick #13 to the NY Giants for pick #17 and #37.

Why would Miami do this: It’s 4 spots. The rebuild at hand is bigger than giving up 4 spots, and you do add another top 50 pick. Easy deal to take.

Why would NY Giants do this: Dave Gettleman better add talent in bunches, and the possibility of Dwayne Haskins dropping to #13 is tempting for him (or Daniel Jones). This way, the Giants take a top prospect at #6, and double back into the top 15 for a player of opportunity. The premium is modest. One mid 1st rounder, and a 2nd rounder. Good deal.

 

TEXANS TAKE THEIR SHOT

Miami Dolphins trade pick #13 to the Houston Texans for pick #23 and a 2020 1st Rd. pick.

Why would Miami do this: Moving down 10 spots while adding a 1st rounder for 2020 to move you closer to your franchise QB is a good deal.

Why would Houston do this: The AFC is there for the taking, and the Texans are a contender. The rumors are that they are hot after a lock down corner, and the best man corner in the draft is Greedy Williams. If he is there, it’s tempting for the Texans to make this deal, fix a deficiency, and punt on their pick in 2020, to make a run NOW.

 

BIG BEN SPECIAL

Miami Dolphins trade pick #13 to the Pittsburgh Steelers for pick #20, pick #52, pick #122.

Why would Miami do this: The board re-arranges for you, your “must take” players are gone and you need players. You get 3 picks for 1. Math.

Why would Pittsburgh do this: Hakeem Butler could be a generational WR talent, and #13 is a sweet spot to guarantee you land him, you would probably have your choice of skill player at that spot as well. The Steelers lost Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell, and the #13 pick is a big boost to replacing some of the skill talent you lost.

 

THE PIPE DREAM

Miami Dolphins trade pick #13, pick #48, a 2020 1st Rd. pick, a 2020 3rd Rd. pick to the Arizona Cardinals for the 1st overall pick (Kyler Murray).

Why would Miami do this: He’s your QB. One of the best QB prospects to come around in a long while. Your long local nightmare at the position would be over.

Why would Arizona do this: Your (hypothetical) all-offseason bluff finally blew up in your face, and you value this pick haul over just taking Nick Bosa at #1.

 

THE TANK MOVE

Miami Dolphins trade pick #48, Kenny Stills and Xavien Howard to the Kansas City Chiefs for #29, a 2020 1st Rd. Pick, and a 2020 2nd Rd. pick.

Why would Miami do this: You move up with an additional 2019 1st rounder, and add considerable ammo for a 2020 run at a QB in the 1st round.

Why would Kansas City do this: The Super Bowl. Tyreek Hill’s “offseason issues”. They have an extra 2020 2nd round pick gained from the Dee Ford trade. The time is now for the Chiefs, an Xavien Howard would be an invaluable piece, and Kenny Stills is insurance for the possible loss of Tyreek Hill.

 

Alfredo Arteaga trades up — and down — every week to work with Simon and CK on Three Yards Per Carry. We just won’t say which is which.

Does Marlins rookie Nick Anderson hurt Craig Kimbrel’s case?

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One of the hardest things to do in baseball is price yourself out of the market.

Sure, it seemed like a lot of top free agents managed to pull that off but there always one franchise with the Cold Stone “gotta have it” mentality that eventually caves in. It took all winter but eventually they always get their money.

Except Craig Kimbrel.

Kimberly posted a 2.74 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP, 96 strikeouts and 31 walks over 62 1/3 innings for the World Series winning Boston Red Sox last season and still doesn’t have a new team. Somehow he and starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel were the only ones to price themselves out.

The Marlins traded Brian Schales to the Twins for Nick Anderson.

There’s indeed a premium on closers. Over the offseason, Zach Britton signed with the New York Yankees for three years, $39M and David Robertson signed with the Phillies for two years, $23M. A year before that, Wade Davis went to Colorado for three years, $52M.

Kimbrel reportedly wanted five years and $100M. According to Ken Rosenthal, those demands have been lowered to figures similar to the aforementioned relievers. 

However, does the scorching start of Miami Marlins pitcher Nick Anderson hurt his case?

Anderson was acquired in a subtle offseason trade by the Marlins for a Double-A infielder. In his fist eight games, he has allowed only one earned run and an astounding 16 strikeouts in only 7.2 innings pitched. His MLB debut came on Opening Day, where he showed up to get a random Rockies batter out. Since then, he made seven consecutive relief appearances in which he struck out multiple batters, which is a franchise record.

To take minimal means to acquire this sort of production must hurt the high contract cause of Kimbrel. The Marlins took advantage of another team’s roster crunch and struck gold. The last time they saw this kind of production from a reliever was Kyle Barraclough in 2016, striking out 88 batters in 60 innings. Anderson had that season in Triple-A Rochester last year and manager Don Mattingly said that’s what caught the eye of his analytics team.

Anderson is on pace for 152 strikeouts in 67.2 innings in his rookie season. 28 years old might be an old age to finally break into the big leagues but Mattingly said on Sunday that sometimes that the perfect age for a pitcher to break out, especially in the bullpen.

“I think there’s a number of guys like that out there that you see that started out as starters and as time goes they refined their mix or however they use their pitches,” Mattingly said. “It seems like that’s that age where you get some six-year guys like that, that are still power stuff, and just end up in roster situations with other teams.”

However, there is a concern with relief usage. Mattingly intimated that there are times that a reliever on a good season can come at the price of a high usage rate and that could lead to a poor season the next year.    

“Bullpens are always one of those situations where you’re kinda riding what’s going on,” Mattingly said. “It’s hard to judge year to year.”

The Marlins has managed to put a good bullpen together with the additions of Anderson, Tyler Kinley, who is also a 28-year-old rookie, and Austin Brice. They replaced Nick Wittgren, Barraclough and Brad Ziegler, who were solid in their own right but not in a way that totally stood out.

Before Barraclough was Steve Cishek, who was super solid during his first four seasons with the Marlins (2011-2014) before the two were swapped for each other in St. Louis in 2015. Miami didn’t miss a beat with that trade.

The Marlins went into spring training not being able to figure out who their closer will be. They signed Sergio Romo to a one-year deal and entrusted him with the ninth inning a few times, along with Adam Conley and Drew Steckenrider, two sides of the same coin. At some point, Anderson will get into save situations and further add to his value.

The idea that a team like the Marlins can unearth top notch relief pitching on the cheap thanks to shrewd scouting and analytics would most certainly be used against Kimbrel’s case of a long term, $100M contract. Eventually, some team will sign him to a deal similar to previous elite closers at some point in the season but a major deal for that position may never come to fruition.

Tony Capobianco is the lead photographer for FiveReasonsSports.com

Pat Riley’s Mistakes and His New Vow

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“We are going to figure it out. Whether you believe me or not.”

The once infallible Godfather, Pat Riley, has legitimate doubters.

The post-Chris-Bosh-blood-clot Miami Heat have a 124-122 record and a +1.1 net rating in their last three seasons. Mediocre, mundane and static. So on Saturday afternoon for what felt like the first time in half a decade, Riley was self reflective and candid about his mistakes.

He finally identified there was a problem and he needed to fix it.

“This team did not come together like I thought it would,” Riley said to a audience of reporters.

He believed they could be as high as a four seed in the Eastern Conference

“I’m disappointed in myself.”

His missteps since 30-11 are well documented but for the first time there appears to be a plan and public agency. No one in sports has eternal goodwill, no matter how many parades they bring. And, as the noise of bloated contracts and players got louder and louder with only one playoff win, the genuflecting at the altar of Riley seems over.

People want answers.  

“I have some big picture ideas already written down,” Riley said, alluding to his plan of going to Malibu with a horde of notebooks. “(GM) Andy and I will decide whether they’re worth chasing or not. There will be some change next year.”

Change is all the fan-base can hope for because, finally, it feels like Miami has a young core to build around. Justise Winslow has had a breakout season and wants to be a leader for the Heat, Bam Adebayo is looking like the perfect rim rolling, switching, passing center that any team would want and Josh Richardson is the essential three and D player every elite team has in its lineup or rotation.

Their base is established and even Riley acknowledged it. What they need now are stars. The Heat are in cap hell, but a few things could break their way to suddenly become players in a loaded Free Agency class this summer.

Hassan Whiteside ($27 million) and Goran Dragic ($19 million) could opt out of their respective player options this summer creating only $15 million in cap space. The Heat owe $140 in salary for the 2019-2020 season and they will need creative accounting to make a max slot for the likes of Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard or even Kevin Durant.

Ryan Anderson and his $21 million could be waived and stretched to give the Heat an extra $10 million in cap space or with a first round pick could be moved, giving Miami enough for a single max slot. Other options would be sending first round picks packaged with two of Dion Waiters, James Johnson or Kelly Olynyk (please don’t be Kelly Pat) in addition to the waiving and stretching of Anderson. For a veteran of seven to nine years a max contract is close to $33 million.

It’s a lot to do and the situation to even create one is bleak and most probably, not likely. But Riley’s words, “we are going to figure it out. Whether you believe me or not,” sounded louder than anything this weekend. The earned mythology of “Closer” and “Godfather” is running on fumes as fans get impatient. Another year of a .500 basketball and a neutral net rating isn’t good enough and there will be no #OneLastDance next season to soften the noise of an exasperated fan base.   

Riley understands he needs stars, he understands that he greatly mis-evaluated what this team was and he finally said it. With Riley the public acceptance is usually the first step, it was with Dwyane Wade and his return home and if history is any indicator, it will repeat itself here.

It’s an uphill battle to be players in this free agency period, but Miami will have tools to get there, as long of a shot as that is. It will take the moving of deals and reshuffling of assets to make this work, but Riley appears to be confident. He scoffed at the idea that “that we can’t get out of certain contracts.”

“We have done this since 1995,” Riley said. “I don’t want to sit here for 30 minutes and give you a litany of the transactions.”

Nor need he. He just needs to make another somehow. Riley is well aware of his critics and detractors. He knows he has done it before, but maybe for the first time in his Miami tenure the belief in him is minimal.

“We are going to figure it out. Whether you believe me or not.”

Those are the words that will echo into one of Miami’s most important off-seasons in some time. There are no dances left to be danced and no more diversions from the reality of their mediocrity. The infallible Godfather once again has to create a miracle, only this time to correct his unexpected, uncharacteristic errors.

 

Giancarlo Navas (@GNavas103), the host of Miami Heat Beat, may have cried a few hundred times during #OneLastDance.

Russell Wilson? Do whatever it takes, Dolphins

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Many years ago when Bret Bielema was interviewing for the vacant Miami Dolphins head coaching position, he came with a well devised plan.

At the time, Bielema was the head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers. And his plan was carefully constructed around the idea that the Dolphins would draft Russell Wilson in the 2012 NFL Draft. He believed Wilson had the potential to be one of the NFL’s ‘elite’ and surprise, surprise, that’s exactly what he’s become.

Obviously Ross went with Joe Philbin, and the team eventually wasted a first-round pick and seven years on Ryan Tannehill. But to believe Stephen Ross isn’t filled with deep regret over his decision would be mistaken.  After all, while the Dolphins were wasting nearly a decade on Tannehill and cycling through one head coach after another. The Seattle Seahawks were winning football games. Consistently. Plus a Super Bowl. Nearly two.

Sure, some of the credit must go to the Legion of Boom, who helped bring relevance back to the Seahawks.  But the one consistent player that Pete Carroll has had for a majority of his eight year tenure in Seattle is Wilson.

Wilson, 30, has thrown for 25,624 yards, 196 touchdowns, and 63 interceptions. His career 75-36-1 record is extremely impressive when compared to the current group of quarterbacks.  Furthermore, his skill-set is something very few in the league possess.  Wilson’s escapability, pocket awareness, and accuracy remain among the NFL’s elite.  Time and again, Wilson will make plays that leave most with their jaw on the floor.  He is elite, in a group that consists of only a few.

So why is the internet torn on whether or not it would be in Miami’s best interest to trade for the 30-year old quarterback?

Compensation

Unlike the NFL Draft, there is no trade chart to determine the value of a franchise caliber quarterback.  What we do know however, is that any trade involving Wilson would likely involve multiple first-round draft picks.  Yesterday, I proposed a trade on Twitter that included two first-round draft picks and Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard. Now obviously, it would be in Miami’s best interest to keep the 25-year old shutdown corner. But if Seattle is going to move their franchise quarterback, it would need an offer it simply can not refuse.  Two first-round draft picks and one of the NFL’s top-5 defensive backs could get the job done.

Salary

Some believe you shouldn’t trade for a quarterback when, by most accounts, that team is rebuilding.  And by trading for Wilson, the Dolphins are then forced to make him the highest paid player in NFL history.  This may not be as big of a problem as some may believe, given that Miami currently has $120+ million of cap space in 2020.  As we are starting to see around the league, paying a quarterback can sometimes cripple the salary cap.  So yes, I understand why some might be hesitant. But if a player of Russell Wilson’s caliber ever becomes available on the open market-via trade or free agency- you do everything in your power to land the whale.

Conclusion

Whether or not the Seahawks and Wilson agree to a new deal, has yet to be determined.  But in today’s NFL, there are only so many ‘elite’ quarterbacks. If one of those proven commodities becomes available on the open market, you do whatever it takes to land that generational talent.  Wilson may not check all of Bill Parcells’ quarterback commandments but that’s okay.  That got us Chad Henne. All Wilson has done over the last seven years is win, at times with less.  If Seattle would be foolish enough to put him on the trade block, interest would be like nothing we’ve ever seen.  To have a quarterback, at the peak of his prime, become available is unheard of. The Dolphins haven’t had one since Dan Marino in the 1980s. As you well know.

Ultimately, I don’t think Seattle would let the greatest player in franchise history play anywhere else.  But if he is available, Chris Grier and Ross better be the first on the phone.  What a trade of this magnitude would do to the fanbase and more so, Ross’ wallet.  Wilson’s jersey will be the #1 selling jersey over the next decade.  There would never be another empty seat at Hard Rock — well, at least, not as many.  Wilson would put an end to the drought that started the day Dan Marino retired.  Most importantly, however, the Dolphins would finally have a winning football team.

Do whatever it takes, to get Russell Wilson to Miami.

 

Josh Houtz (@Houtz) is a diehard Dolphins fan…. and a bit of a dreamer. For a look at how the Dolphins are doing at tanking (not well), check out Chris Kouffman’s piece HERE. 

The Miami Dolphins Are Terrible at This

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Amid the media- and fan-driven frenzy about ‘tanking’ I wonder if anyone has stopped to ponder the following question:

What if the Miami Dolphins are as bad at earning the 1st pick as they were trying to earn the 32nd pick?

They’re not off to a great start.

Right away, the Dolphins botched it by dismissing a wild-eyed, dysfunctional head coach who refused to modify his system to fit the personnel, had begun to blatantly point fingers, and explicitly sheltered under the sort of derelict excuses that would see a player excised from winning franchises.

And for an added twist of the knife, Miami made the mistake of allowing that sort of valuable agent of chaos escape to a division rival, where he is already doing work for the New York Jets.

The Dolphins only made things worse by screwing up their search for a replacement.

They could have taken the advice of several players who took to Twitter to argue on behalf of Darren Rizzi, a special teams coach who learned how to lose under a solid set of proven’s like Greg Schiano, Joe Philbin, and Adam Gase. Coach Rizzi had once been forced to step down as head coach of Rhode Island after achieving a 3-9 record in his first and only year coaching the Rams. He would have been a promising choice.

Miami even pulled some strings to score an interview with a ‘ringer’ like Dennis Allen, who sported an 8-28 record in his previous NFL head coaching stint! The Dolphins walked out of that meeting without getting Allen under contract.

Instead, they hired a coach who spent 15 years working at every level of the most impressive dynasty in NFL history. And they did it fresh off his calling, perhaps, the most impressive defensive performance in Super Bowl history. Awful.

Miami were forced to watch with dismay as Brian Flores did what previous New England spin-offs had failed: he brought a significant portion of New England’s staff with him, assembling a cabal of assistants that sport more hardware than Home Depot.

Dolphins fans, no strangers to the exercise of hope-trafficking, have largely taken solace in two ideas.

The first is the perception that even a successful set of coaches requires a period of creative destruction; taking a step backward in order to leap forward. Unfortunately, there is a consistent history of new head coach hires improving their team’s win total in their first year. Yuck.

Over the last 30 years of NFL history, there have been 194 head coach hires, with 142 of them taking over losing teams. On average, the new head coaches achieved +1.5 more wins than their predecessors. For the teams that started out with losing records, the head coach change was worth an average improvement +2.4 wins.

In fact, of the 45 teams with a new coach taking over a 6- or 7-win roster, only 10 achieved records of 4-12 or worse the next year. Their records averaged somewhere between 7-9 and 8-8.

But there’s always the second source of hope for Miami fans: the near-universal perception of a talent-less roster. So bad is this Dolphins roster that, according to Odds Shark, oddsmakers have given Miami sole possession of the lowest win total prediction in the NFL landscape (5.0 wins).

Of course, the bad news is that, according to data compiled from Sports Odds History, over the last 30 seasons of NFL history, the teams with the lowest sportsbook win total in any given year have only ended up with the 1st pick in the NFL Draft three times.

Cross-reference the two and you have 20 teams over the last 30 years who hired a new coach to take over a roster projected by Las Vegas to be the worst (or tied for the worst) in the NFL. Their average record the following year? About 6-10.

Granted, the perception of Miami’s roster as talent-less is a bit curious. You don’t typically see teams that won six or more games projected to have the worst record in the NFL the following year. It’s only happened twice before.

The 1996 Carolina Panthers responded to odds makers’ doubts by going 12-4 and playing in the NFC Championship Game. The 2018 Buffalo Bills went 6-10 and will pick 9th in the upcoming draft, despite having started a particularly raw rookie quarterback all year.

This is not particularly comforting, for fans of Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins continue to bungle the roster effort. They haven’t emptied the roster, traded their best players, or insured themselves against the progression of promising young players. They don’t have a depth chart stacked with older, high-risk assets.

Most people seem to think roster talent goes up and down every year because of the players coming in or going out during the off season. That’s not really true. The balance between the progression of young players, the attrition of old players, and the regression of inconsistent players plays a much larger role in year-to-year changes to the roster’s talent level.

It’s not all about the incremental loss of veterans like Cameron Wake or Ja’Wuan James. In 2016, the Dolphins lost Olivier Vernon, Lamar Miller, and Charles Clay via free agency. Fans and media declared the roster talent-less, only to see improvement from 6-10 to 10-6.

For the first time in years, the roster is infested at nearly every position with young and promising players that threaten to take the next step. Laremy Tunsil, Jesse Davis, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant, Albert Wilson, Kenyan Drake, Kalen Ballage, Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor, Jonathan Woodard, Raekwon McMillan, Jerome Baker, Xavien Howard, and Minkah Fitzpatrick have all made positive impressions. Yes, even Mike Gesicki.

Frankly, there are not enough players like Charles Harris in that group, sporting a problematic mix of high expectations and bad tape.

Also for the first time in years, the team doesn’t have a significant amount of expectations tied up in a handful of veterans who pose significant age or injury risk. Unstable assets like Reshad Jones (age, injury), Ryan Fitzpatrick (age), and Albert Wilson (injury) are less common on this roster, and their 2018 comps are easier. Jones already played unevenly last year during the 7-win season, it wouldn’t be terribly difficult for Fitzpatrick to out-perform what Tannehill and Osweiler provided a year ago, and Albert Wilson played less than half a season in 2018.

The team doesn’t have much time left this off season to get back on course. They still have an entire NFL Draft full of talented players to navigate. The way this front office and coaching staff have been operating, they shouldn’t be trusted to make it through the weekend without getting at least a little bit better.

What a bunch of bad losers.

 

Chris Kouffman (@CKParrot) is a host of Three Yards of Carry, on which he doesn’t lose an argument, unless he’s trying to. Dolphins fans, also check out the latest COLUMN from Josh Houtz on whether Miami should target Russell Wilson.

Something needs to be done about Wei-Yin Chen

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The very fact that the Atlanta Braves recently signed All-Star second baseman Ozzie Albies to a seven-year extension and it’s for less money than what the Miami Marlins are paying Wei-Yin Chen over the next two years is absolutely absurd.

The Marlins entered Spring Training with the presumption that Jose Urena, Dan Straily and Chen would take the top three spots of the starting rotation. By the end, they made the wise decision to hand the rotation to their young rising stars. Urena opened the season and Straily was released but the same could not yet be done to Chen.

In 2016, the Marlins, under previous ownership, signed Chen to a five-year, $80 million contract to pair him with the late Jose Fernandez for a possible playoff run. The team still owes him $20 million this season and $22 next season. The money is guaranteed so there is an understandable urgency to get some value out of him.

They moved Chen in the bullpen but he has yet to have so much as a single positive outing. He has an ERA of 24.75 in four innings over three appearances. His first appearance ended without a single recorded out. He gave up a walk and a hit on the only two batters he faced and was given the hook in favor of Sergio Romo coming in to save Miami’s 3-0 win over Colorado on March 31. His best outing was when he gave up a run in two innings at home against the Mets on April 2. His worst was his most recent outing where he gave up 10 runs in two innings against the last place Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday.  

Marlins manager Don Mattingly has exercised patience towards Chen and defended him at every turn this season. Before the 1-5 road trip, he said,  “There’s going to be a lot of important outs he is going to have to get.”

“We have to be able to use him,” Mattingly said on March 31. “If not, it’s going to put stress and wear and tear on everyone else. He’s going to be fine.”

In Cincinnati, after Chen turned into a batting practice pitcher, he basically said that it’s been a hard position for him to adjust to after spending the last seven years as a starting pitcher.

“I expect him to be better than that, but sometimes it’s not quite fair for him the way we’ve used him,” Mattingly said on April 9. “He’s sitting a lot, doesn’t know exactly when he’s going to pitch and it’s just not the role I think he’s accustomed to, but I do think eventually he’s going to get better.”

One solution to that problem would be to schedule his appearances. That way there would be no surprises and he would likely be more prepared going into them, especially when they’re at home, where he had a 1.62 ERA in 13 starts last year. But as Mattingly said before Friday’s 9-1 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, that’s not part of the plan.

“No, can’t do that,” Mattingly said. “I’d like to say we could but we can’t schedule.”

One other available option would be to make Chen the opener. The Tampa Bay Rays invented that strategy with Romo last season and the Okland Athletics adopted it during the Wild Card game against the New York Yankees. Chen could start the first two inning, and pass it off to a starter for the next five, leaving the final two innings to the bullpen.

That plan was originally brought up as early as the beginning of Spring Training but has not yet been taken in consideration since. Main reason why is because unlike the Rays and A’s, there doesn’t seem to be a spot for that.

“We’ve talked about it being in consideration but I don’t know who we would do that for, as far as our starters, ” Mattingly said. “They’ve all actually thrown the ball pretty well.”

The opener would indeed stunt the growth of any of the four young starters the Marlins are trying to groom into aces. However if it would happen on this team, it would either occur after an injury to one of the starting pitchers or be done during a Jose Urena start, should his struggles continue.

For now the role for Chen going forward looks to be that of a long reliever in low leverage situations. Regardless, it can’t be worst than what has already transpired.

Tony Capobianco is the lead photographer for FiveReasonsSports.com