Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Heat clobbered in Orlando by the mystical ones

No one could blame coach Erik Spoelstra if he channeled Pat Riley, angrily entering the locker room, then sparking a dart. And if he followed suit with homage to the Godfather’s epic, off-color tirade by getting in the players’ faces with a death stare, calling them gutless, perhaps it would be inspirational. Opponents don’t see the Heat on the schedule but rather a fresh meat cut.

His ancient point guard, Kyle Lowry, is unplayable because of his freelancing on defense and inability to pressure the rim. And the playmaking project, Nikola Jović, was useless against the bulk of the ascending Orlando Magic.

Allegedly, management likes its team.

In the first quarter, no Heatle registered more than a field goal as the unit scored 19 on five of 20 attempts. Open trays were missed, bad shots attempted and not enough force was put on the paint.

Orlando’s Paolo Banchero beat Jimmy Butler from the wing to the cup for a layup, canned a baseline jumper behind a pindown and swished a fader over Haywood Highsmith. The rest of the Magic made seven of 18 buckets, but it held a three-point advantage heading into the next frame.

In the second quarter, Bam Adebayo scored off pick and pop, a putback and a 10-foot fall-away jumper over Wendell Carter Jr.. Tyler Herro splashed two consecutive triples on each wing. And Caleb Martin dunked on the break and pierced the lane for a buzzer-beating layup.

At halftime, the Heat was down 46-48. Seven offensive rebounds for the Magic led to 11 second-chance points. The visitors had only three on its ledger for extra tries and were behind 6-14 in points via turnovers. And Adebayo was high Heatle with a dozen on the scorecard on 50% shooting with six boards.

The third quarter featured too much ball-watching and indecisiveness. As a result, the squad made one of seven triples against solid defense after Butler made two and was overwhelmed for two shot clock violations out of its five turnovers.

On the other side, Franz Wagner hooked over Adebayo in transition, hit a seven-foot floater and made a left-wing trifecta in Jović’s face following his overhelp on a lane drive. Carter rolled to the rim for two dunks. And Suggs produced seven more points.

In the fourth quarter, the mystical ones devoured the Heat like the “Prince of Pizza” (Charles Barkley) inhaling some pies.

Carter hounded Adebayo, forcing him into a miserable mid-range step-back shot and two more difficult jumpers. Markelle Fultz was on Herro’s hip when he entered the lane, causing a turnover and Suggs locked and trailed him perfectly, influencing a miss after the catch at close range.

On defense, Lowry, Martin and Herro were dusted for inside finishes. The baseline was conceded when blitzing Fultz up top, which burned the Heat for an underneath layup by F. Wagner. And Carter added five extra points.

The Heat lost its third game in a row, 87-105, getting beat on the boards by seven and scoring just 36 paint points, seven on the break, 10 on second chances and 15 via turnovers. Adebayo had 22 on his score sheet, with 11 rebounds and seven assists.

The Magic logged 54 in the interior, 12 on the break, 23 from additional opportunities and 29 after turnovers. Banchero had 20 points and 10 rebounds.

At the postgame presser, Spoelstra said, “[The Orlando Magic] were very physical tonight. They took us out of a lot of our normal relief actions and kind of blew up our movement, and we didn’t react with force and detail… missed shots, turnovers, that’s kind of what you are looking at.”

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Dejounte Murray’s trifecta spoils Udonis Haslem appreciation night

Nobody from the Atlanta Hawks was chopped down in Udonis Haslem’s honor, but the Miami Heat recognized its former captain with his jersey retirement in front of past and current teammates and got silenced by the visitors in the last two seconds. (Jaime Jaquez Jr. was absent for the Heat with a left groin strain, and Trae Young and De’Andre Hunter were out for the Hawks with an undisclosed illness and right knee inflammation.)

The offense, aside from Jimmy Butler’s multiple putbacks and dunk past Saddiq Bey, was in a rut to start, again, converting 10 of 27 baskets. And the Heat fell behind 24-32 after 12 minutes because it conceded two second-chance opportunities, seven points off turnovers and five triples.

In the second quarter, Duncan Robinson connected on three of four 3-pointers on a handoff against drop coverage, a closely contested left-wing jumper and an opening in the corner.

Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Butler combined for 28 points on 55% shooting in the first half. Yet Dejounte Murray killed the Heat’s defenses, popping on the side of a screen for a triple plus hitting another in the corner, dusting his cover in transition and maneuvering to the elbow for a jumper. Onyeka Okongwu, Johnson and Bey assisted him, logging nine of 17 buckets before intermission.

At halftime, the Heat was down 56-57, with three points scored on the break, a dozen on second tries and eight via turnovers. And here is where the Heat honored Haslem.

Some in attendance were Goran Dragić, Tim Hardaway, Ron Rothstein, Shane Battier, Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Alonzo Mourning, Quentin Richardson, Jason Williams and Dorell Wright.

Team president Pat Riley addressed the crowd, thanking UD for his service. “Udonis Haslem. His force mattered and it counted, and that’s one of the reasons why we’re hanging his jersey here [tonight].”

Then Haslem spoke from the heart, expressing gratitude to colleagues, coaches, friends and family.

In the third quarter, Herro swished the Heat’s only pair of triples out of eight attempts, cut back door for a layup and blew by Patty Mills for an inside finish. Adebayo burst into the paint for a dunk, broke down Capela from the top to the cup for a bank shot and nailed four freebies.

Then Bogdan Bogdanović erupted for the Hawks in the fourth with eight points, coming from a triple behind a flare screen, another on the left side after setting the pick and two free throws. Bey contributed seven points, too, and Mills, Murray and Garrison Mathews each supplied a triple.

In the last two minutes for the Heat, Butler burned Johnson from the left wing to the hoop for a dunk, then hit a floater with contact over Bey. Next, Adebayo nailed a turnaround jumper over Capela in the lane to push the lead to three points.

Subsequently, Capela registered two free throws after Adebayo fouled him, but Herro responded with a tray to put the Heat back up by four with 36 seconds left.

The game should have been over, but afterwards, Richardson fouled Bogdanović on the inbound, sending him to the line for two. He made both.

With 30 seconds left and up two points, the Heat killed the clock on an isolation play for Herro, defended by Johnson that resulted in a failed baseline shot. Murray picked up the rebound, dribbled up the court, and pulled up from 27 feet out in Caleb Martin’s face to take a one-point advantage. That basket was also his only one of the period.

Timeout Heat.

With two seconds left, the ball was inbounded to Butler, he passed to Martin, and the Heat failed to get up a try in time.

The Heat lost 108-109, recording nine fastbreak points, 14 through second chances, 19 via turnovers and six extra rebounds. Butler had 25 on his scorecard on eight of 10 attempts. Herro also had 25 on 55% shooting.

The Hawks scored 22 points from turnovers and 17 on additional opportunities. Murray dropped 22 points, 11 assists and three boards.

At the postgame presser, coach Erik Spoelstra said the final possession was “One of those plays when I’m going through it in my head, there’s going to be an advantage in that corner, and it just didn’t play out that way… It was a poor play call. I’m disappointed in my call on that.”

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Dolphins should consider these numbers before signing Tua long term

So Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier wants to sign quarterback Tua Tagovailoa long term, does he?

Well… Grier better take a look at some of these numbers that I pulled, before he commits to Tua any longer than his 5th-year option. 

We all know by now that Tua is a fantastic NFL quarterback who can put up some impressive Top-5 numbers during the regular season…

 

— 1st in pass yards

— 5th in pass touchdowns

— 5th in QB rating 101.1

— 5th in accuracy 69.3

 

And to add on top of that… Tua played in all 17 games in 2023 – a feat he hasn’t reached since entering the NFL. Previous to that, he never completed a full season due to injury.

But is he a Top-5 talent? That’s a clear “no”.

Is he an assassin? Still waiting on that.

How does he perform against winning teams and high-profile quarterbacks? Dolphins Nation is disappointed and left wanting after losses to the Eagles, Ravens, and being swept by the Chiefs and the division rival Bills. Not to mention that the Miami Dolphins scoring dropped from putting 30 points on the Jets in mid-December to 22 versus the Cowboys, to 19 versus the Ravens, to 14 versus the Bills, to 7 versus the Chiefs on Wildcard Weekend. 

 

 

Is it all Tua’s fault? No. 

Player injuries, coaching, and play-calling play a factor as well.

But he and the offense have had multiple chances to respond in these final 3 losses, and they’ve failed.


And Tua is the franchise quarterback for now …  and if Grier has his way… for the foreseeable future. 

But here are some areas of concern the Dolphins front office needs to consider, before locking up Tua Tagovailoa to a longterm deal: 

 

Before and after Halftime

Tua’s overall passer rating during the first half of games is better than the second half. And his passer rating goes down as each quarter of the game ends. Starting from 117.3 in the first quarter, and dropping to 109.2 in the second, 92.3 in the third, and 75.9 in the fourth. 

In the first half of games, Tua has 20 touchdowns to 6 interceptions for a passer rating of 112.2.

In the second half, 9 touchdowns to 8 interceptions for a passer rating of 85.5 respectively.

 

Tua did not play well in the 4th quarter

In the 4th quarter of 2023 regular season games, Tua has 4 touchdowns which is tied for 7th-most. But the top 7 spots in that respective category, involve 25 quarterbacks.

Tua is also tied for 5th-most interceptions with 3, and an overall passer rating of 75.9 in the 4th quarter.



Tua did not perform well in primetime

In late games this season, Tua has a win-loss record of 1-3. With a touchdown-interception ratio of 3-4, and a passer rating of 84.0.

 

December & January


During 2023 regular season December and January games — his total win/loss record is 3-3 with a TD-INT ratio of 7-4 for total average passer rating of 82.0.  

During Wildcard weekend in Arrowhead, he passed for 199 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. With a 51.3% completion, and 63.9 passer rating.

 

Tua was not good under pressure

Pro football focus ranks him 30th versus overall pressure with a grade of 54.4. He is tied with Carson Wentz. 

 

Dolphins training camp

 

Leading, Tied, Trailing

When leading, Tua’s completion percentage is 70.18%, 9 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and 98.2 rating. While being sacked 9 times.

When tied, 69.16%, 7 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 114.0 rating, while being sacked 5 times.

When trailing, 68.51%, 13 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 97.8 rating, while being sacked 15 times. 

 

Playoff record

Tua’s playoff record is 0-1. However, he could’ve been to the playoffs twice, if he would’ve not had concussion issues towards the end of 2022. If he played in the 2022 Wildcard Round in Buffalo that season, at best his playoff record would be 1-1. At worst, 0-2. 

But the Dolphins still lost 4 games in a row before Tua was ruled out for the rest of that season. During that span, Tua played poorly in 3 out of his last 4 games. 

Just like he didn’t play well or well-enough during the final stretch of this 2023 season or against the Chiefs in Arrowhead. 

So do the Miami Dolphins want to sign a proven clutch quarterback or just a high-level regular season quarterback who will take you to the dance, but leave you in playoff purgatory? 

The Cowboys signed Dak Prescott to big money a couple years ago. His playoff record is now 2-5.

The Vikings keep re-investing into Kirk Cousins. His playoff record is 1-4.

Tua can very-well be on his way to becoming part of this category.

Or perhaps… He’s already there. 

 

******

For more Miami Dolphins content, check out the Three Yards Per Carry and AllDolphins podcasts.

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Heat massacred in Toronto

The Toronto squad pounced on the Miami Heat like a swarm of starving velociraptors. The hosts established a 30-point lead within 15 minutes on the evening of Pascal Siakam’s deportation to the Indiana Pacers. RJ Barrett surged for 17 points, stabbing the lane in transition + off the catch for dunks and floaters in the first half. Scottie Barnes supplied five of seven buckets. And deadeye Gary Trent Jr. swished four trifectas.

Without Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kevin Love, the Heat failed to protect the arc and stop dribble penetration. On the former, when the guests tried blitzing, the hosts swung the rock quickly to the corner for multiple strikes. A Raptors stampede went unanswered with 18 consecutive points in five minutes between the end of the first and the start of the second quarter.

On the other side, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler combined for five of 11 baskets, pressuring the rim, but the rest of the team converted 37% of shots.

Kyle Lowry was ineffective, missing all his triples. Tyler Herro (or a souped-up Jerry Sichting with an Instagram account, usually) was almost a zero, lacking precision on deep shots and had one at close range emphatically rejected. Also, Barnes beat him twice off the dribble and another instance under the rim for a putback.

Through 24 minutes, while playing a third team in four nights, the Heat had surrendered 60.4% of the Raptors’ attempts. Bottom line: The group didn’t care enough. It was down 43-78, with four points on the break and a paltry deuce via second chances. Had one of coach Erik Spoelstra’s trusted lieutenants advised him to bench the starters for their failures, and he followed through, it wouldn’t have been a wrong move. Such an act could send a message of displeasure.

But in the third quarter, the defense tightened up, permitting just six of 22 shots and forcing 11 straight misses in between. The Raptors’ long jumpers were contested and help defenders were quicker to blow up drives.

Offensively, Herro erupted for nine points, maneuvering into the lane for close baskets and a corner triple after pump-faking Dennis Schröder into his team’s bench. Nikola Jović used a Butler pick to get into the paint for a nine-foot hook, scored in the open court and splashed a 3-pointer in Barnes’ face. And the stars (Adebayo, Butler) contributed 10 to the scoreboard, but it wasn’t enough.

In the frame, the Heat outearned the Raptors by 14 points, but it was still behind by 21.

In the fourth, it chopped the deficit down to 13 marks with nine minutes left, but then the Raptors logged nine of 15 baskets to close. Barnes hit backbreaking shots- a turnaround jumper at the nail with Richardson all over him after getting forced to pick up his dribble and another difficult fallaway blast on the baseline with Adebayo nearly breathing on him.

The Heat lost 97-121, with break 10 fastbreak points and six through second chances. Getting behind on the glass by eight boards resulted in the Raps registering 19 second chance points. Butler had 16 on his scoring log on 54.5% shooting. Adebayo also had 16 on seven of 13 tries.

At the postgame presser, Spoelstra said he didn’t see the early onslaught that transpired coming. “It just happened. It was an avalanche at the beginning of the game. Our starters definitely did not set the tone for the game and then it just proceeded to get worse as that first half went on…”

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Extremely Sad Programming Network

Since ESPN’s fraudulent Emmy scheme was uncovered, the former “worldwide leader” has tried to bob and weave its way out of accountability.

The Athletic’s Katie Strang broke the story that ESPN abused the National Academy of Television Arts & Sciences’ (NATAS) rules so that on-air talent could have an ineligible prize. NATAS has since banned Craig Lazarus- VP and exec producer of content, and Lee Fitting- senior VP of production (who left ESPN in August). Yet ESPN hasn’t confirmed who concocted the scheme, how it will keep public trust, or if the wronged will be compensated.

The lack of transparency is a massive middle finger to its audience, who deserves to know what people there can’t be trusted. ESPN should expose these cretins to save its reputation or industry standards, but it won’t. Keeping an in-house disaster that the public knows about quiet is the priority. But keep calm. Those perps were disciplined, ESPN assured in its press release.

Employees such as Kirk Herbstreit, Lee Corso, Chris Fowler, Desmond Howard and Samantha Ponder, were involuntarily involved in this through the deception of the higher-ups. Imagine the disappointment of waking up to a call from your boss or someone else of authority saying your skills didn’t bring home that award. And to put it in a nice box. That’s what happened to this crop of talent and others.

No doubt, it was a huge confidence boost to some (maybe all) of the people who were misled, and there was even one who gifted her prize to a friend. Putting her in a position to ask for it back is greasy and tough to forgive.

ESPN should offer those wronged restitution for this disrespect. The deceived talent wouldn’t spend too much time on the market if they were available.

While not the exact action, this theft should be demonized as seriously as plagiarism. When any media member steals another’s work and is caught, they are not protected by their employer but rather excommunicated. Not offering specifics on the punishment of the culprits is a mistake because ESPN is considered an example by various university professors lecturing their students around the country.

Future orations in academia should include a disclaimer, “Don’t worry, if you get powerful enough, you can wild out as much as you want without serious repercussions.”

Worldwide suckers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro bail out the Heat in Brooklyn after an atrocious first half

On the second night of a back-to-back set in Brooklyn, the Heat produced its worst output of the season (31 points) in the first half of Jimmy Butler’s return. He had 10 points at intermission on a backdoor feed, plus two layups, but the offense was stuck in the mud, going uphill while jammed in second gear. The Nets were holding the visitors to 26.2% shooting and no baskets outside of the paint.

For the hosts, Nic Claxton finished over mismatches and broke the zone for a slam. Cam Thomas scored at close and long range in transition and evaded defenders for lane access in the halfcourt. And Bridges disposed of Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith and Nikola Jović for four of six baskets inside the arc.

At the break, the Brooklyn squad led 45-31. The guests had recorded just six fastbreak points to the Nets’ 16 and had zero second-chance marks to the hosts’ seven. Eight extra boards gave the Nets seven more tries on the goal, and its bench was outscoring the Heat’s 18-5.

Then the Heat’s offense went off like a grenade, notching 37 points in the third quarter, ignited by Herro’s consecutive triples on the break. He continued carbonizing drop coverage and connecting on a 14-foot floater in Dorian Finney-Smith’s eye, totaling a dozen points for the interval. And Butler converted all three attempts, endlessly drawing contact to the hole like a running back punishing defenders at the line of scrimmage. He accumulated 14 points

Defensively, the Heat permitted four of 12 triples and were disruptive near the hoop. Adebayo switched on to Bridges, denying his jumper at the elbow, and Butler + Lowry came up with steals.

Four possessions were wasted in the fourth off with a careless pass by Kyle Lowry into a defender’s chest, Adebayo getting ripped and setting an illegal screen and Caleb Martin traveling. But the Heat held the Nets to five of 21 shots, and Herro nailed consecutive baskets with under a minute left- a floater at the right elbow and another from 13 feet out on the left side- to force overtime.

In the extra period, Brooklyn’s Thomas beat Martin on the baseline, and Royce O’Neale swished a right-wing trifecta after the Heat blitzed up top to take a five-point lead. Next, Herro canned a right-wing banger in transition (unbelievable he wasn’t tagged).

Subsequently, Bridges received the sideline inbound, dribbling past Richardson to the paint for a turnaround jumper. The Nets led 95-91.

On the following sequence, Herro made another at the top of the key 3-pointer on a broken play when multiple defenders unsuccessfully swarmed Adebayo at the nail. When the Nets got the ball back, Bridges charged into the paint against help for a vain floater that Claxton illegally touched.

Butler then isolated Dennis Smith Jr., drawing a foul en route to the cup and buried both. The Nets still had a timeout left, but coach Jacque Vaughn didn’t use it to advance the ball up the floor. Bridges got it back, challenging three defenders for a failing jumper.

The Heat won 96-95, making 37.9% of tries with 17 fastbreak points, four off second chances and eight via turnovers. Butler had 31 on his ledger on 67% shooting and 15 of 16 made freebies. Herro recorded 29 points on half of his attempts with 11 rebounds and assisted in the on-court interview.

“It wasn’t easy in the first half,” Herro said. “Not easy in the second half either, but to come in, regroup at halftime and come in and take care of business in the second half, that’s who we are and what we do, and it’s a great win for us on the second night [of a back-to-back].

At the postgame presser, coach Erik Spoelstra joked his team didn’t get the win out of the mud but instead cement. “You see that first half? That was about as ugly as it could get… So now that’s three games where we held our opponents under 100. Two out of the three have been in the mud, and that’s progress for our team.”

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: The Heat shellac the Hornets on Dwyane Wade’s Hall of Fame night

On Dwyane Wade’s Hall of Fame night at Kaseya Center, Jimmy Butler’s understudy- Jaime Jaquez Jr.- oppressed the inferior Charlotte Hornets early, and Bam Adebayo took charge in the second half. The former scored 15 of the hosts’ first 22 points, finishing on the break, isolating PJ Washington for a layup and hooking in the lane over the mismatch. It was the highest-scoring quarter of his rookie season. (Butler was absent for the Heat (toe injury). The Hornets were missing Gordon Hayward (hurt calf) and Mark Williams (back).

Herro was off-target, producing just three points, but picked up four rebounds. And Adebayo hit a fade away in the lane and rolled for a lob after the handoff with Duncan Robinson.

For Charlotte, the high Hornet early was plea-copper Miles Bridges with eight on his scorecard. The rest of the group made two of 18 field goals as the Heat held the visitors to 16-first quarter points.

In the second frame, Ball failed to score against the Heat’s backline and was baited into deep jumpers. Heat play-by-play broadcaster Eric Reid said he was playing “unhinged.” Before the period was up, he committed two turnovers- pushing off Josh Richardson’s face and tossing the rock out of bounds instead of to Bryce McGowens- plus failing on a miserable pull-up 24-footer that his team couldn’t rebound.

Additionally, all eight 3-point attempts the Hornets hoisted were contested and it converted a sparse 33% of tries in the restricted area.

For the Heat, Duncan Robinson stripped Cody Martin and raced down the court, hitting a floater between two defenders, connected on another fastbreak layup fed by Nikola Jović and splashed a left-wing trifecta when left unchaperoned. He also had three assists, working the give-and-go action with Adebayo and finding Jović and Herro with space behind the arc in transition.

JJJ played just four minutes in the second quarter because he injured his left groin and missed the rest of the match.

At halftime, the Heat held a 52-31 advantage with 14 fastbreak points and 13 via turnovers. During the break, Wade was honored at center court as the greatest Heatle in the organization’s history by Pat Riley, who revealed his eight-foot statue is coming in the fall.

In the third quarter, the Heat saw a different Ball. He dropped 14 points ruthlessly attacking the interior and made a pair of triples. Bridges complimented him with a layup after getting loose behind a flare screen and two jumpers on the left side.

Yet on offense, Herro swished a transition 3-pointer, invaded the paint when the Hornets broke down and beat Washington + Ball going downhill.

The only thing that threatened the hosts was picking up six turnovers in the third because of poor passing and an illegal screen by Jović.

The fourth began with the Heatles above 16 points. Charlotte’s Terry Rozier emptied the tank, adding 11 to his scoring log. Ball contributed five more, and Bridges was held to zero field goals late.

On the other side, Adebayo, Robinson and Richardson combined for nine of 15 baskets- at close and long range-powering the club to victory.

The Heat won 104-87, never allowing the Hornets to take the lead. The Miami squad registered 58 paint points, 25 on the break and 17 off turnovers. On top of that, the Heat added 8.4 points per 100 transition plays, good enough for the 90th percentile of all games this season, per Cleaning the Glass.

After the game, Wade shared a moment with Butler and Adebayo on the court.

Adebayo handled the on-court interview, expressing pride for being a part of the later part of Wade’s career. On the topic of the statue, he said, “You can’t do anything but soak in knowledge from a guy like that… [The] best thing is for me to pay attention.”

At the postgame presser, coach Erik Spoelstra claimed he was surprised by Riley’s announcement. “[Riley] dropped the mic on that one. He shocked all of us…”

Tua Tagovailoa says he doesn't feel pressure going into next season on the final year of his contract.

Pressure Point: Dolphins’ collapse raises questions about future with Tagovailoa

A season that showed potential to be something special for the Miami Dolphins ended the same place as every other one this century.

On the trash heap.

Surprisingly it was Mike McDaniel’s highly acclaimed offense and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa that led the way to the dumpster, culminating in a noncompetitive 26-7 wild-card loss at frigid Kansas City on Saturday night.

Would have been difficult to imagine when the Dolphins were dropping 70 points on the Broncos in the third week of the season and Tagovailoa was on his way to leading the NFL in passing yards.

Rarely have grandiose — even historic — stats added up to so little. Because although Tua amassed Marino-like passing numbers and earned his first Pro Bowl selection, the true measure of his season was in how he and the offense came up short against teams that reached the playoffs.

The Dolphins went 1-6 in games against the Bills (twice), Eagles, Chiefs (twice) and Ravens. In those games they scored 20, 17, 14, 22, 19, 14 and 7 points.

Tua shrunk in biggest games

Notably, in the three season-ending losses Tagovailoa had his worst passer ratings of the season: 71.9 against the Ravens, 62.7 against the Bills and 63.9 against the Chiefs. He had four touchdown passes and five interceptions in that stretch.

In each of those games his performance paled in comparison to the opposing quarterback — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

If this comes across as a harsh assessment, consider that a big topic of the Dolphins’ offseason will be if or when they will pursue a long-term contract extension with their quarterback. Tua is due to make $23.1 million in 2024, the final season of his rookie contract.

The going rate for top quarterbacks these days is north of $50 million a year.

The Dolphins may wait until after next season to decide whether to offer Tua a new contract. Whenever that may occur, his agent can point to an impressive array of stats in building a case that he belongs in that category.

To be sure, Tua accomplished a lot this season and provided some dazzling moments, particularly in spectacular connections with Tyreek Hill. He finished with a league-leading 4,634 yards, 29 touchdown passes and a passer rating of 101.1.

Significantly, for the first time in his career he started every game and didn’t miss any time due to injury. He led Miami to an 11-7 record and its second consecutive playoff appearance.

Fins still winless in playoffs since 2000

But the season cannot be considered a success — and this burden ultimately rests with the head coach — after the Dolphins squandered a three-game lead in the AFC East in the final five weeks and ended with another one-sided loss on the road in the first round up the playoffs.

The Dolphins are now 0-6 since their last playoff win in 2000 while being outscored 164-62. Even the 2000 team got rolled the next week 27-0 by the Raiders. The only game that was even close was the 34-31 loss last year at Buffalo.

It is in that context that the disappointment of this season is magnified: nearly a quarter century without a single win in the playoffs. The cast of players, coaches and decision makers keeps changing, yet the path always leads back to the same crossroad to nowhere.

The latest roster overhaul begun in 2019 was going to finally fix that. The Dolphins were going to find their franchise quarterback, by golly, and a coach to break the chain of lost seasons.

That quest seemed to be coming together in the first 12 games of this season with Tua leading McDaniel’s innovative offense that was the talk of the league. But production diminished late in the season, particularly against the better teams.

Will Miami pursue extension for Tagovailoa?

Ultimately, that 70-20 trouncing of the Broncos and feel-good routs of other middling teams served only as build up to a bigger letdown.

“We were definitely expecting us to be a really good team this year. We definitely weren’t expecting a first-round exit,” Tyreek Hill said after the season-ending loss to the Chiefs.

Now the franchise reverts to another juncture of uncertainty about the future and troubling questions arise entering the offseason. Is Tagovailoa the right quarterback to invest in long term? Is McDaniel the coach to lead the way out of the wilderness?

Not that either is headed out the door. But it is understandable that patience is thin. The NFL is all about results right now. That has become expected of young quarterbacks more than ever in recent years.

Mahomes rocketed to immediate stardom. C.J. Stroud made an immediate impact for the Texans as a rookie this season and already has a resounding playoff win under his belt.

At his best, Tagovailoa is a remarkably accurate passer. He remained healthy all season and improved his record as a starter to 32-19. But his struggles against the better teams is troubling. His record in December and January games is 10-11.

In mulling whether to make a potential $250 million investment in Tua, the Dolphins must assess whether he is a quarterback who can just get them to the playoffs or can he elevate his game to win in the postseason.

Re-signing Wilkins should be top priority for Dolphins

The aftermath of a season that promised much more than it ultimately delivered will bring other immediate challenges on personnel matters. Most important, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, coming off a monster season, can become an unrestricted free agent.

On the bright side, Wilkins said after Saturday’s loss that he would like to stay with the Dolphins. It remains to be seen where the money and ambition leads.

Hill said: “Unfortunately, every locker room is going to be different every year, salary cap and guys wanting to get paid and going other places. I feel in my heart that if this team were to come back together this is the right group of people to win. We got everything what it takes. You can see that the defense came along, and as an offense, we have to be able to put drives together and help those guys out.

“We just can’t be a bunch of front-runners. Next year I feel like we’ll learn from it.”

For the Dolphins, hope always points to next year.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Adebayo, Robinson and Jaquez lead the Heat past the Mystical Ones

The blossoming Orlando Magic’s defensive pressure put the Heat’s attack in the mud early and kept the game close the whole way. After Duncan Robinson seemingly unbuttoned the offense with consecutive triples against the drop and the Magic overhelping on Bam Adebayo in the post, the hosts endured five minutes recording just two field goals. But then Robinson set Adebayo up with a pick-and-pop jumper at the nail, and Josh Richardson scored the last two baskets of the first.

On the other side, Paolo Banchero rattled off seven points, Chuma Okeke stung from the corner, and Jalen Suggs ruined the Heat’s offense with help defense and three blocks on Robinson.

In the second quarter, Adebayo continued feeding cutters, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. abused each Magic defender in his path. The rook looked like a mini Kevin McHale, pivoting past them for a layup on the baseline, then breaking down Banchero from the top to the cup and finishing three baskets on the break with no misses in six tries.

Defensively, the Heat struggled to contain Moritz Wagner’s mobility (at 6-foot-11) after the switch, conceding the baseline, a rim roll and a putback. Additionally, Caleb Houstan poured in three triples- Jaquez couldn’t shade and recover on time after the screen and no one tagged him in transition after Nikola Jovic’s turnover. The one in between was nailed with Jović practically breathing on him.

At halftime, the hosts led 56-50, up on the glass by two, with 28 paint points, 12 on the break, eight off turnovers and five via second chances. Robinson had 14 on his scorecard on five of 11 attempts. Jaquez logged 15 on 70% shooting.

In the third quarter, both units upped their defensive pressure. The Heat quickly recovered onto Banchero on the wing to successfully contest his wing jumper, Jaquez forced him into an 11-foot miss on the baseline, and Adebayo, coming in as the helper, spiked his layup away. And the Magic permitted the Heat only six of 20 shots to fall. Adebayo registered three, attacking Goga Bitadze twice in the lane and cleaning up JJJ’s miss for a putback.

Next, coach Erik Spoelstra stashed Jović for Caleb Martin and Richardson. The Heat binged on baskets inside the arc (eight of 13), mainly behind the work of Adebayo schooling Wagner and Robinson getting into the lane with the help of the screen. But the squad committed four turnovers trying to pull off dangerous passes and losing it on the wing, blessing the Magic with extra possessions.

Wagner produced eight points on a rim roll, back door cut and pump-faking Adebayo at the top of the key to get inside for a layup.

Banchero scored 10 points on three of 10 tries late. With 39 seconds left, he dribbled to the right baseline, covered by Jaquez and hit a 15-footer to give the Magic a one-point advantage.

Following the Heat’s timeout, the Magic had one plan: get it to Banchero. The difference at the end was JJJ, Adebayo and Highsmith guarding his jumper and influencing misses on his last three attempts. And, at 18 seconds left, Adebayo caught the inbound and pulled up at the nail in front of Wagner to take the lead.

The Heat won 99-96, with an edge on the boards by three and taking one more field goal. Adebayo supplied 21 points with 11 rebounds and seven dimes. Robinson scored 23, making four of 10 trifectas. And JJJ had 19 points with seven rebounds.

At the on-court interview, Robinson said the games had a “grind it out” finish. “No matter if it’s pretty ugly or somewhere in between…[We] had some real stretches where we showed resolve and found a way to get out a win.”

At the postgame presser, when asked about Adebayo, Spoelstra said, “He had his fingerprints all over this game. Defensively, he was anchoring everything. We had him, sometimes on the five (center), sometimes on the perimeter. If he was on the perimeter, he was there to plug everything up…”

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Jaylen celebrates after scoring the clinching touchdown for the Miami Dolphins in the win against the New Orleans Saints.

For the Dolphins…. you’re saying there’s a chance?

With the Miami Dolphins now 4.5 point underdogs in one of the soon-to-be coldest weather games in NFL History, their chances of coming out of Kansas City still alive in the Wildcard Round are not looking good.

It’s true, on the surface, the trusted stock in the Miami Dolphins is down right now after losing the division crown to the rival Buffalo Bills who seem to always have their number.

Mike McDaniel looks like a coach that can’t make halftime adjustments.

Tua Tagovailoa looks like a quarterback who can’t win a big game.

And Tyreek Hill seems to get a case of the dropsies whenever these big games arrive.

On defense, the Dolphins are banged up entering this game.

They will be without their high-profile cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) which will leave Eli Apple on the opposite side of star Jalen Ramsey. Kader Kohou will likely be in the slot.

The pass rushing unit has taken a huge hit this year. LB Jaelan Phillips tore his Achilles versus the Jets, LB Bradley Chubb suffered a torn ACL on New Year’s Eve, and LB Andrew Van Ginkle hurt his foot
in the team’s regular season finale. LB Jerome Baker, who is an adequate blitzed, hurt his wrist and will require surgery. None will be available to chase down Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead Stadium.

 

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But the Dolphins have a secret weapon on defense for this game — experience.

And not just any type of experience.

Experience from 3 longtime veterans who have totaled 243 sacks collectively in their careers. And although they are relatively new to the team, Melvin Ingram, Justin Houston, and Bruce Irvin all have experience chasing after Patrick Mahomes.

Ingram did it when he was a member of the Chargers.

Justin Houston sacked Mahomes as a member of the Colts.

And Bruce Irvin claims he sacked Mahomes twice as a member of the Raiders, but he may have mistakenly meant Alex Smith.

Houston and Irvin who both joined the team this week say they’ve played in similar defensive systems like defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s system, so they believe they can get acclimated quickly.
Houston still sees himself as a pass rusher, and Irvin says he moves faster than his 36-year age. The Dolphins are hoping all 3 veterans have enough left in the tank, and can combine their football knowledge to make a difference not just for this game, but for the rest of the postseason should the team win on Saturday.

But despite the injuries, the Miami Dolphins still have a chance in this game, but that all depends on if they can fix what has ailed them in the final two weeks of the regular season.

The defense has been competitive, and they showed it last week when they only allowed a total of two touchdowns to the Bills.

The Chiefs receiving corps doesn’t offer much of a threat, but Mahomes’ improvising and Andy Reid’s ability to whip out the tricks during this time of the year does. Look for misdirection and the
occasional trick play. Also, the Dolphins secondary has been exposed on drag plays across the field when they played the Ravens, and the Chiefs offense is more horizontal this year than vertical, so look for
Reid to utilize some of those play calls when he has good matchups. I’d expect tight end Travis Kelce to feast off of these catches with Miami’s linebacking unit and safeties banged up.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins front-7 needs to continue their ferocity keep Chiefs running back Isaiah Pacheco, from violently running downfield. The Fins defense has suffered a lot of injuries, but that’s actually one aspect that doesn’t concern me too much. Defensive tackles Christian Wilkins, Zach Seiler, and run-stuffing linebacker David Long Jr. are still around to lead the charge.

What McDaniel cannot do is get away from the run too early before the Chiefs learn to stop it.

Tua Tagovailoa, with Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, had an uncharacteristically poor performance in the loss against San Francisco.

After grinding down the clock with the run on their final drive and kicking their way to victory over the Cowboys on Christmas Eve, the Dolphins picked up where they left off in Week 18 versus the Bills.
The Fins ran the ball for over 100 yards in the first half, but went away from it in the 2nd half when the Bills decided to give McDaniel looks that were intended to stuff the run. However, McDaniel ditched
the run game before the Bills ever actually proved that they could stop it. This got the Dolphins offense into trouble and led to a bunch of short drives and punts, which allowed the Bills to get back into
the game and take the lead. McDaniel needs to stick with the run game until the Chiefs prove they can stop it.

The Dolphins are better at running the ball than the Chiefs are defending it. So using running backs De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson Jr. is imperative considering the elements. If Raheem Mostert, who is
listed as questionable and has over 20 touchdowns for the season can play in this game, that will be bode very well for this offense. All of these backs can catch, and McDaniel and Tua need to remember that when they have these speedsters mismatched on Kansas City’s talented linebackers.

The offensive line has been riddled with injuries, but still playing quite well when it comes to the run blocking and giving quarterback Tua a pocket. Tua continues to avoid the sacks while getting the ball
out quickly, but still must prove he can go off script and make something happen when the team needs it in crunch time. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo has playcalled in a lot of big-time games throughout his career, and this game will be no different. Knowing that Tua isn’t the best escape-artist, I’d expected Spagnulo to blitz quite often while hoping to get the Dolphins offense in as many 3rd & long situations as possible. Considering the freezing temperatures, and the hardening of the football, throwing it deep probably isn’t the best option for Miami offense or when facing the Chiefs’  secondary. I would like to see more crossers and drag routes to see if Spangulo’s cornerbacks can keep up versus Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle’s presumed return.

What the Dolphins cannot allow is a big return or some kind of foul up on Special Teams.

Coming out of halftime versus the Ravens, the Dolphins allowed a kickoff return for a big return — demoralizing.

Against the Bills, after the defense got a stop — Dolphins special teams unit allowed a punt return for a touchdown to allow the Bills to tie the game 14-14. The Dolphins kickoff and punt coverage unit cannot allow short fields or easy scores to the Chiefs in a game with extreme elements where field position could be vital for victory.

 

 

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Key to Victory: Take the lead and Pull Away

In Arrowhead Stadium, there has been too much Mahomes Magic at this time of year. This Chiefs team is beatable, but to avoid any miraculous late-game magic or dagger killing drives by Patrick
Mahomes, the Dolphins have to get off with fast start (like they usually do) and pull away. None of the cute Mike McDaniel attempting to go for it on 4th-down early in the game despite being in field goal
position — No. Take the easy points, and when you go down the field again, tack on some more points. Because this team has shown time and time again that they are a first half team in games versus playoff contenders, and they shown to little to prove that said problem is fixed.

You want to beat Mahomes?

Play smart, stop him early, tack on multiple scores, and keep the lead out of reach of his magic and Andy Reid’s creative play calling.