Maybe it’s time to realize Tua isn’t enough

The Miami Dolphins lost Sunday Night to the Buffalo Bills 21-14, crushing their hopes to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008.

And they learned something…

They learned that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may not be enough to go all the way this season.

He may not be enough to go all the way in ANY season.

The team saw it, the fans saw it, I saw it.

 

 

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The Miami Dolphins lead the Bills at halftime, up 14-7, and what did we see in the 2nd half?

The Bills defense dominating, and Josh Allen finishing.

That’s when I came to ask myself: when does Tua Tagovailoa finish games for the Miami Dolphins? Especially, against teams headed for the playoffs. And especially versus teams with highly athletic
quarterbacks who he will likely face in the postseason when the games matter.

Did Tua win in Buffalo earlier in the season during the Miami Dolphins first meeting against the division rival Bills?

Nope.

Did Tua perform well in Germany when the team faced the Kansas City Chiefs and went down 21-0 by the end of the first half, and had the ball literally slip out of his hands on his final 2 plays of the game?

Nope.

Sunday Night Football in Philly, despite the defense tying the score 17-17 in the second half, the offense didn’t show up that entire half, and Tua melted once the 4th quarter started.

Facing a 4-8 Tennessee Titans team on MNF at home, and playing a rookie quarterback, the Titans gift wrap a win by giving the Dolphins a 14-point lead in the bottom 5 minutes of the game. How does Tua and the offense respond? Three and out; and a 6 play, 16 yard drive ending with a turnover on downs.

The Ravens game on New Years Eve? I couldn’t wait for 2023 to end after that 56-19 blowout.

And yes, Tua beat Dak Prescott and the Cowboys at Hard Rock Stadium on Christmas Eve. But you know what? That’s the Cowboys, they don’t play good on the road. And last time i checked, Tua and the Miami offense was responsible for only 1 touchdown in that game.

And last night on SNF, for the division crown, I saw a 2nd half filled with 3 and outs, 4 punts, and an interception.

Tua couldn’t find a way to put the team on his back at any point in the 2nd half, despite getting chance after chance by the defense. After Buffalo took a 21-14 lead, Tua had the opportunity on 2
different drives to make a statement. The results were a 3 and out, and a 4 play, 23-yard drive ending in an interception.

You know who I did see put the team on his back?

Josh Allen.

And it’s not to say Allen had a great game; he didn’t. Allen was responsible for turning over the ball 3 times. But he cleaned up his first half mistakes, and put the cape on in the 2nd half. Allen converted when the Bills backs where against the wall on late downs. Allen made killer throws. Allen took off with his legs. Allen broke tackles and made people miss. Allen converted on the upsy-daisy in
short yardage situations on long drives to kill the clock and keep the ball out of the Dolphins hands.

Allen did things that Tua just can’t do.

Allen is an assassin, and he has those special physical qualities which allow him to make unreal plays when the game is on the line.

So does Jalen Hurts when he’s doing the Brotherly Shove, Lamar Jackson when he’s pulling so much attention that it’s leaving receivers open, Patrick Mahomes in clutch time….

Tua’s special quality is his accuracy.

But those quarterbacks are accurate too…

They also have everything else.

My point is: if Tua can’t beat these quarterbacks during the regular season when the stakes are low, how is he expected to do that in the postseason when it’s win or go-home?

 

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Mike Hernandez is a new contributor to Five Reasons Sports Network. You can find him at @MadmanMikeDD

Pressure Point: Heat’s on Tua, McDaniel as Dolphins face chilly prospects in playoffs

So, what’s the mood, Miami Dolphins fans, excited about the playoffs?

Your team finished the regular season 11-6, its most wins in 15 years. It’s headed to the postseason in back-to-back seasons for the first time in more than two decades.

And yet, anger and dejection is palpable throughout South Florida after watching a bevy of annoying Buffalo fans celebrate their Bills snatching the AFC East title on the Dolphins’ home field on the final night of the season. Just the latest Dolphins debacle played out before a national audience.

Ya got us again, Dolphins.

No team is as adept at luring its fans into skydiving without a parachute as the Dolphins.

They outdid themselves this time. Redefining epic collapse, the Fins squandered a three-game lead in the division over the final five games. Instead of opening the playoffs at home, they must travel to face the defending champion Chiefs in freezing Kansas City.

Tagovailoa disappears in second half

At the most important moment of season that brought so much acclaim to Tua Tagovailoa and the offense, it was Tagovailoa and the offense that failed miserably in the second half of the 21-14 loss to the Bills.

That and an inexplicable lapse on special teams in allowing a 95-yard punt return by Deonte Harty.

Vic Fangio’s defense did its part in holding Josh Allen and the Bills to two touchdowns and forcing three turnovers (two interceptions and a brilliant strip-sack by Christian Wilkins) plus an inspiring stop at the goal line by Jerome Baker to end the first half.

The defense clearly wore down in the fourth quarter — losing two more edge players from its depleted corps of outside linebackers (Andrew Van Ginkel and Cameron Goode) was a factor. But the second-half undoing was squarely on Mike McDaniel’s highfalutin offense.

The Dolphins totaled just 47 yards of total offense in the second half while holding the ball for only seven minutes. In five possessions after the half, they punted four times (three were three-and-outs). The final indignity saw Tagovailoa overthrowing seldom-used Chase Claypool for his second interception of the game.

“We never felt like they stopped us. That’s the tough part about tonight,” veteran left tackle Terron Armstead said. “We had some missed opportunities. I, myself, had a terrible false start and I feel like I screwed the team. We lost momentum after that. It just kind of sucked the energy – not necessarily sucked the energy – but just a very bad penalty to take that five-yard loss. So man, I completely screwed the team right there, and it was hard for us to get back on track after that. I take full accountability for that.”

McDaniel’s offense struggles against top teams

There was plenty of accountability to be directed at the head coach and playmakers as well.

After rushing for 101 yards in the first half while building a 14-7 lead, Miami ran the ball only three times in the second half.

Tua, who led back-to-back 75-yard touchdown drives in the second quarter, was out of sync after the intermission. Even Tyreek Hill, who celebrated his TD catch with a gymnastics routine worthy of Simone Biles, had a couple of drops.

McDaniel said: “It seemed like take a turn each drive. We weren’t able to really get the momentum of the drive going, which is what happens when myself as a play caller decides to pass, anticipating that we have an advantageous look. I think at this point in the season you have to trust a lot of things and it didn’t work out. It goes really to the whole group because we were running the ball well. They changed their box count which wasn’t like they changed defenses. They just called more eight-man front and you have to be able to adjust with the defense and make plays in all phases, and we were unable to do that tonight.”

For all the praise directed toward McDaniel as an offensive innovator, he is starting to resemble Adam Gase 2.0.

A lot of the gaudy stats generated by the Dolphins’ league-leading offense have the luster of fool’s gold. When needed most, McDaniel’s offense hasn’t delivered.

In six games against teams going to the playoffs, the Dolphins scored 20, 17, 14, 22, 19 and 14 points. They won only one of those games, the 22-20 comeback against the Cowboys.

Tagovailoa outplayed by Jackson, Allen

Leading the 64-yard drive to the winning field goal in the final 3 ½ minutes against Dallas was Tagovailoa’s finest moment. In the two losses since then — 56-19 disaster at Baltimore and Sunday against the Bills — the Dolphins’ supposed franchise quarterback was thoroughly outplayed and overshadowed by the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Buffalo’s Allen.

Tua’s passer rating against the Bills was 62.7, his worst of the season. Second worst was 71.9 at Baltimore.

Granted, Allen is prone to mistakes. He threw two interceptions and lost a fumble Sunday. But in the fourth quarter he took over the game and enforced his will. Facing third and 13 on a clock-killing drive, Allen rumbled through Dolphins defenders for 15 yards.

While McDaniel is 20-15 as Dolphins coach, he’s 3-11 against teams that have made the playoffs the past two seasons.

Make no mistake, McDaniel and Tagovailoa aren’t going away next season. But the reckoning Dolphins ownership and management must contemplate is where can this franchise go with them? And what are the options for alternatives?

Long shot to break drought in playoffs

Because a season that appeared headed for a breakthrough is now back to a well worn crossroad to nowhere, facing a likely one-and-done in the playoffs. There have been four of those (including last year at Buffalo) since the wild-card win in overtime over the Colts in 2000.

According to CBS Sports HQ Research, the Bills are the fourth team in NFL history to win a division after being down three-plus games with five or fewer games to play. (1973 Bengals, 2008 Chargers, 2022 Jaguars). After floundering at 6-6 and firing their offensive coordinator, they now take the momentum of five consecutive wins into opening the playoffs at home as the second seed in the AFC.

For Miami, it’s off to playoff purgatory at Kansas City where temperatures for Saturday night are forecast to drop as low as minus-2 degrees.

“We can’t dwell on what has happened,” Armstead said. “We’re the six seed. We got to go play Kansas City, let’s go. Let’s go do it. Let’s make it happen. We go up there and get a big win against the defending champs, on to the next.”

Who knows, the NFL is full of surprises. Some may view the Chiefs as less formidable right now than the Bills, who would have returned to Miami Gardens if the Dolphins had prevailed.

But seriously, the prospects of Tua leading an upset in frigid and foreboding Arrowhead Stadium? I’m not putting cash on it at the Hard Rock Sportsbook.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Suns outshine the touring Heat

Kevin Love carried the Heat early, supplying 15 points, firing behind the arc, facing up in the post and cutting to the basket on a perfect five attempts. Kyle Lowry splashed a pair of triples. Jaime Jaquez Jr. scored off three back door cuts. But the Suns, without Kevin Durant, devoured the Heat’s Jimmy Butler-less defenses and held the visitors to its season low of 97 points. (Butler was absent with right toe irritation, and Caleb Martin was too with a right ankle sprain.)

Phoenix’s Grayson Allen burned the Heat for unnecessarily abandoning the corner twice, plus canned a transition trifecta and his last was against drop coverage. Devin Booker added 10 points on four of six shots from all three areas of the halfcourt.

In the second quarter, JJJ, Nikola Jovic, Duncan Robinson, Lowry, and Tyler Herro logged a donut. However, Bam Adebayo was the source of the offense, powering past multiple defenders on the baseline and in the lane, hitting a reverse layup over Drew Eubanks, swishing a couple of jumpers at the nail and slamming a lob on the roll, fed by Herro. Counting his five freebies, he totaled 17 of the Heat’s 26 points in the frame, and only Josh Richardson recorded a field goal, aside from Adebayo’s six.

Defensively, no formulas stopped Allen from connecting on three more trays and blowing past Love for a finger roll layup. In this period, the Heat flashed the zone and man coverage, yielding four of five baskets in the restricted area. Additionally, Bradley Beal and Booker combined for 14 points on 54% shooting, getting to the paint whenever they wanted.

At halftime, the Heat were down 55-62, with 18 paint points plus four off turnovers and zero scored on the break. The guests were behind on the glass by two but took 12 extra free throws and converted 46.2% of its field goals.

In the third quarter, the offense made three buckets in a row, then subsided, failing on nine straight, courtesy of the Suns’ defense. Herro and Lowry were useless, registering no points. All eight attempts from the left side missed as the Heat produced on just 29.2% of its looks.

Within four minutes, the crew was down 17 to the Suns. Booker was contained, but Chimezie Metu, Bol Bol, Eubanks and Beal didn’t miss on nine tries.

The final quarter was a disaster shooting from the perimeter, making only two of 10 triples. Yet, Adebayo plowed into the paint for a dunk, lob off the roll and floater in transition. Getting within 13 points with six minutes left was as close as the Heatles got in the period to threatening the lead.

The Heat lost 97-113 in a match that featured 14 first-half lead changes. The offense produced 94.4 points per 100 possessions, good enough for the 40th percentile of all games this season, per Cleaning the Glass.

At the postgame presser, coach Erik Spoelstra said the hosts were getting lots of easy baskets in the first half which established their momentum in the second. “At the start of the third, when we weren’t knocking down shots, now you’re dealing with a team that had great flow, great confidence, and they were just able to play with ease pretty much offensively in that second half.”

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: HBO’s unanswered questions about Winning Time’s cancellation and the upset Lakers

HBO canceled its show Winning Time in September because of a 40% drop in viewership and has refused to answer who the intended audience was. Remember that the Lakers team shown in the program is between 45 and 40 years old (the show’s story ends in 1984). The network also didn’t answer what made them think the public would be interested in the stories of a group that age when the NBA has recently added an In-Season Tournament because it wants to “drive additional interest in the early portion of the regular-season schedule.”

That’s code for the NBA is not satisfied with its number of spectators.

Additionally, HBO PR chiefs Raina Falcon and Diego Aldana did not answer what impact the criticisms of former Lakers had on the show. Magic Johnson, Norm Nixon, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and more spoke negatively about Winning Time any chance they could when the show went lite on their reputations in comparison to Jeff Pearlman’s book, Showtime: Magic, Kareem, Riley, and the Los Angeles Lakers Dynasty of the 1980s, it is based on. Interestingly, no one is discrediting Pearlman’s writing, and he spoke with close to 300 people for the assignment.

In the summer of 2023, during the SAG-AFTRA strike, cast members of Winning Time could not promote the program. Still, Pearlman, who even had a cameo as a journalist in one episode in season two, did futilely on X(formerly Twitter) as much as possible.

Johnson told reporters he “never watched” HBO’s “fictional” account and that no one could tell the story. Yet, the scenes from the show of him working out with Pat Riley to recover from his knee injury come from his 1983 memoir (published at age 23) Magic by himself and Richard Levin.

Abdul-Jabbar said it was boring because of bland, crude characterizations and compared it to gossip-mongering on the Real Housewives in his Substack writing page.

Nixon said it wasn’t true and that he never had issues with Johnson, as a guest on the Skyhook podcast with Michael Cooper and Abdul-Jabbar. His son, DeVaughn, portrayed him on the show.

In later interviews, he criticized Johnson for his tight bond with Buss, saying he couldn’t hang out so frequently with the owner and then with the team, but never mentioned that he partied with both as well. (At the peculiar press conference introducing Pat Riley as Lakers coach, Buss revealed that he was going to a birthday party with Johnson and Nixon.)

Gary Vitti chose not to return after two days of consulting in protest of Jerry West’s portrayal.

Riley just walked by and said “no” when asked by reporters at Miami Heat training camp if he liked Adrien Brody’s interpretation of him.

Jeanie Buss, who tried to get the show canceled before it aired, said she thought no one had a right to tell the Lakers’ story in her interview with Graham Bensinger. “We tried for a couple of years [to shut down the show. We] really leaned on the corporate lawyers, and I thought they would be able to stop it. The explanation given to me is that it’s protected under first amendment rights…”

Despite early objections to production and material in the program, Jeanie Buss admires the performance of John C. Reilly as her father, calling it “absolutely breathtaking as [Jerry Buss].

Here’s the deal: The show took many liberties, bothering and hurting some of those who lived it, especially West, who even pursued legal action, demanding a retraction and apology from HBO. The Network denied both.

In reality, West didn’t throw his trophy out of a window. Johnson didn’t storm off the court after his altercation with coach Paul Westhead. Jack Kent Cooke was not that unfriendly towards Jerry Buss. Bill Sharman couldn’t raise his voice that high, then. Claire Rothman did not unbutton her shirt to flatter Buss’ eye. And Buss was more sensitive than his portrayal, despite showing mainly his cavalier side, plus many other things.

But it was never a documentary and there is a disclaimer that it is a dramatization.

Still, Johnson is the luckiest that Winning Time was canceled and didn’t follow Pearlman’s book 100% to the text. Here’s an excerpt of Frank Brickowski describing his mansion parties in Chapter 13- Virginal: “He would have the finest girls in LA there. The absolute finest. And at midnight you had to get busy with somebody or get the fuck out. So, if you were a guy, at midnight you’d get as close as you could to the hottest possible woman. Magic went around in this voyeuristic way. He’d check on you. He’d go throughout the house, the pool. He’d order people to start doing things. All you had to do is be near a chick. There were guys who would yell, ‘Magic, she’s not getting busy! She’s not!’ He’d run over there and she’d get busy…”

Furthermore, in one scene of the show in Episode One, The Swan, Abdul-Jabbar is shown telling his child co-star of the film Airplane to “Fuck off.” He denied this in his blog or ever mouthing off to any minor. However, Linda Rambis, executive director of special projects with the Lakers, is on the record in Chapter 4- Center of Complications in Pearlman’s book saying, “Some little kid would ask for an autograph and he’d say, ‘Go fuck yourself.’ But Kareem was, otherwise, an incredible professional.”

But Rothman, the former general manager of the Forum, now retired at 95 years old, said to Five Reasons Sports Network that Winning Time was unfair to its subjects but that it was closer to realism in the second season.

Regarding Buss, Rothman said the show did not accurately depict the dimension of the man. “He was an avid reader who read two or three books a week. He loved theater. He loved symphony. He loved ballet.”

He was also receptive to the ideas of his employees. For example, Rothman once asked for a raise. She wrote him a memo explaining how underpaid she was compared to people from all over the country who did similar work, but he never read the second page. Two weeks later, Buss summoned her to his Pickfair mansion for a business lunch. There, he obliged her wishes and gave her a $100,000 raise on the condition that she couldn’t ask for another next year.

Buss also got involved as a donor to The Music Center in LA. Rothman was on the board at the time. She and others who were closely around him were dispirited by the direction of his character because they agreed Buss wasn’t one to disrespect another publicly.

Concerning the interpretation of Abdul-Jabbar, Rothman said it was stupid.

Rothman was appalled by West’s “unkind” depiction, too. She had a friendly relationship with him when she worked at the Forum, but he never interfered with her business. His priorities were basketball matters, and the one time they discussed anything in her field was in a brief comment about Barbera Streisand not coming to perform at the Forum, according to Rothman.

She said there weren’t enough moments that showed his softer side. Towards the end of Pearlman’s book, he does showcase West’s generosity, taking his colleagues out to dinner at Ruth’s Chris Steak House while providing them with laughs.

And she was sickened by the scene of her character undoing her hair and then the top buttons of her shirt.

Pearlman said in an interview on The Rich Eisen Show that Winning Time wasn’t a documentary, but he understands the frustration of those portrayed, and that he has no issues with the characterization, particularly West, because it is in line with his autobiography, West by West: My Charmed, Tormented Life. “It’s sort of true to the tortured and tormented soul that he was.”

He would add in his interview with Eisen that West “was combustible, highly strung, couldn’t watch his team…”

Jeanie Buss wasn’t interested in helping HBO after she saw the script for episode one. She sent a copy of it to Rothman, who, in solidarity, wouldn’t participate either.

In 2022, the same year as Winning Time’s first season, the Lakers publicized their show Legacy: The True Story of the LA Lakers. It is a 10-part docuseries directed and produced by Antonie Fuqua. Jeanie Buss was also an executive producer.

The first four episodes cover the Showtime Lakers era, and some of the interviews shown validate Pearlman’s book.

In the first episode of Legacy, West, a program volunteer, said, “Coaching for me was a difficult chore. I am an emotional person, and sometimes, I don’t hide that very well.”

He also mentions feeling sad for the players who competed for him from 1976-79.

The following episode explains the awkward press conference when Buss announced that West and Pat Riley would be in charge of the offense and defense post firing of coach Westhead. Jeanie Buss described it as tone-setting for their working relationship because her father wanted to be known as a decision-maker. The team’s former public relations director, Bruce Jolesch, is quoted in Pearlman’s book, saying, “We put on a clinic on how not to conduct a press conference.”

In the same episode of Legacy, West says that he didn’t think Nixon was a good compliment to Johnson in the back court, but the two of them were arguably the top guard pairing in the NBA. Johnson wrote in his memoir that he told Buss that Nixon was the top guard choice he’d like to play with because “his quickness adds a dimension to my game that nobody else can.”

According to Pearlman, West booted Nixon from the team the because he saw him as an issue. He hired a private investigator to try to identify a drug problem to justify his cause.

With Winning Time’s cancellation, the opportunity was wasted by HBO (unless the rights to the program are bought and another studio continues) for the show to continue the dramatized story of Showtime or even one of the following duos- the Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant era from Pearlman’s Laker follow up, Three Ring Circus: Kobe, Shaq, Phil and the Crazy Years of the Lakers Dynasty.

West, Jeanie Buss, Nixon and Pearlman didn’t want to speak for this story.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Catching up with the Heat

Through nearly 2/5s of the season, Jimmy Butler hasn’t been himself on the court despite the Heat having a 19-13 record and sitting at fourth in the East. A year ago, the squad had a .500 winning rate after the same number of matches, while JB was ripping defenses at a 53.2% clip but appeared in 20 games. Now, he is attempting a career low in percentage of attempts at the rim and logging his least efficient campaign in a Heat uniform.

Injuries have been a factor. He’s been absent nine outings with rest, personal reasons, an ankle injury, knee tendinitis, and he recently missed four in a row with a calf strain. Then, in Saturday’s duel with the Jazz, he hurt his right foot, leaving midway through the third quarter, and he’s out for Monday’s meeting with the Clippers because of it.

At this rate, Butler, who is 34 years old, is on pace to record 62 games this season, which would be his second-lowest percentage since joining the team behind 2021-22. That isn’t ideal for a squad that should aim to secure home-court advantage through the first round, at least, but it hasn’t hurt them so far. The record in games without him is 5-3.

In the present campaign, Butler has arguably the best band ever put around him in Miami. Bam Adebayo is a top-three center. Tyler Herro keeps ascending. The group struck gold in the Draft, selecting Jaime Jaquez Jr. And Duncan Robinson has turned into a threat inside the arc, apart from being a lethal outside marksman. In theory, the cast of characters should allow him to age gracefully.

But is it that simple?

At Butler’s age, only 11 players in NBA history have averaged 20 points on 50% shooting in the Playoffs, per Stathead. Of course, he isn’t just a scorer, but the Heat are most dangerous when he looks to put the on-ball or backline defender in foul trouble.

Throughout his time in Miami, he has developed a “wait until the Postseason” reputation, and he’s lived up to it all but one year (2020-21). Yet, when he doesn’t look as sharp as he did in the losses at Milwaukee, Utah, and in defeats at Kaseya Center to the Nets and Cavaliers while tallying his lowest field goal percentage as a Heatle, it’s fair to wonder if accumulated mileage has caught up to him. Of current guys in the league, Butler is 10th in Playoff minutes.

It’s not strange that after 13 tours, he’s presumably downshifted from sixth to fifth gear. Exhibit A: Jaquez is currently the team’s best close-range threat, attempting 3.2 shots in the restricted area, converted at 69.6%. For reference, Butler logs 3.4 tries from 0-3 feet at 65.9%. His peak production rate in this category for Miami was 4.6 shots on 72.2% in 2020-21. Exhibit B: Last season, when Butler had one day of rest before a game (37 times), he would make 52.3% of the shots. In 2023-24, with the same time in between (15 times), he is converting 47.4% of tries.

Age showing its medusa-like face doesn’t mean he can’t take over. But it does signify that picking his spots probably means lowering the RPMs in the regular season more than ever. This is happening on the Lakers with LeBron James and on the Suns with Kevin Durant- both still produce loud numbers, but their impact isn’t the same. Heat supporters likely will not care if it buys Butler another prepotent Playoff showing that takes the group on another deep run.

Before that can happen, it must take care of business until the end of the year. The concern is that with Butler coasting, the Heat won’t get a high enough seed to host a series. In 2022-23, it was the first Play-In squad and second eight seed to make the Finals, but counting on another ride like that is unwise. It was historic for a reason.

A top-four spot would lessen the mental burden of starting a series in hostile territory.

Can the Heat get there?

There are 50 outings left. Nonetheless, the team is on pace to win 49 games. In the last two years, the fourth seed (Cleveland, Philadelphia) won 51 matches. Today, Miami and Orlando are tied for fourth place, with the former owning the tiebreaker.

The Knicks, two games out of the Heat’s spot, are also on the hunt after dealing for O.G. Anunoby (and in the long term if he extends, which is likely). What makes Anunoby special is that there aren’t 10 other dudes in the NBA who defend the other squad’s top perimeter player AND score 15 points nightly, as he does. The Heat still has two meetings left with the Knicks on Jan. 27 in New York and April 2 at home.

Herro and Adebayo are Miami’s leaders in scoring average, and their two-man connection is one of the strongest on the team. One of the next steps for coach Erik Spoelstra is making sure JJJ works well in a rotation with them because he is Butler’s expected successor.

Jaquez is first among rookies in minutes, second in steals, points in the paint, and third in assists, and made freebies.

However, negatively affecting the Heat’s effort to grab a top-four seed is inconsistent production at point guard. It’s part of the reason it can’t sustain leads, aside from being average at covering the 3-point line. Kyle Lowry is third in games played and fifth in minutes. These days he is only helping if his long-range jumpers are falling and with the occasional outlet pass. He only gets one paint touch per contest and is willing to reach on defense instead of staying with his man.

Josh Richardson will get his minutes gashed if he keeps getting torched on defense, too.

The team is depending on Caleb Martin (ankle sprain) and Haywood Highsmith (jaw contusion) being high-level contributors when they get back.

Considering injuries and deficiencies- aside from JJJ, Adebayo and Butler, the rest of the team can’t get into the paint as easily- the chances the Heat keep the fourth seed are around 40%. This team takes 38.5% of its looks from deep, 13.4% in the midrange and 48.1% in the paint. If any of those three are not puncturing the teeth of the defense, snatching a win becomes much more difficult by playing more from the outside.

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Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins had a rough day in rout at Baltimore.

Pressure Point: Dolphins must regroup from painful loss to battle Bills for AFC East title

A crappy New Year’s Eve in Baltimore left the Miami Dolphins staggering with a throbbing hangover.

The vision of the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC was swept away in a 56-19 embarrassment against the runaway Ravens.

Granted, all was not lost for Miami. The division title is still there for the taking with a season-ending showdown looming against the Buffalo Bills. The winner will claim the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

But the effects of this Dolphins debacle won’t wash away with a couple of aspirin. An already concerning injury situation worsened with two key defensive players leaving on a cart: cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb.

Chubb, having a Pro Bowl-worthy season, appeared to suffer a significant knee injury while attempting to make a tackle in the fourth quarter.

In addition, Tua Tagovailoa was briefly in the medical tent after he dinged his left shoulder while sliding on a fourth-down scramble in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins should have been punting in what was by then a lost cause.

Home field at stake vs. Bills

Fitting that it will come down to a must-win against the Bills for Miami to claim its first AFC East title since 2008. The Dolphins will have the advantage of home field, where they have been nearly unbeatable with Tagovailoa.

But will they have a healthy Tagovailoa? At the podium afterward he said his shoulder was sore.

The quarterback’s shoulder and availability will be the focus of the week.

As for the sting of the defeat, Tagovailoa said, “We’re right where we need to be as a team, regardless of the outcome of today, and we’ll be better for it. Hopefully we get to see these guys again.”

The road to the Super Bowl will go through Baltimore after the Ravens clinched their second No. 1 seed in franchise history.

The Dolphins secured a place in the playoffs with last week’s win over Dallas. They’ll be vying with the Bills to host a first-round game. Otherwise Miami will draw an unenviable road assignment.

Jackson, Ravens worthy No. 1 in AFC

While the top seed in the conference was at stake Sunday, it never felt actually within reach for Miami despite a picture-perfect opening touchdown drive and a 10-7 lead after the first quarter. Because the Dolphins defense, which has played so well for most of the season, had no answer to Lamar Jackson and his receivers.

A loss at Baltimore wasn’t surprising. But the gulf between the teams was, well, staggering.

Want to know what a No. 1 seed looks like? The Ravens provided the answer in dominating and demoralizing the Dolphins in every aspect of this runaway.

And if you want to know what an MVP candidate looks like, Jackson is the model.

The Ravens’ multi-talented QB pitched a perfect game with five touchdowns, 321 yards and a 158.3 passer rating. It was his third career game with a perfect passer rating, tying the NFL record.

Tagovailoa started well but couldn’t keep up, finishing 22 of 38 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions.

Dolphins’ fast start not enough

The day began promising for Miami with a 75-yard drive in eight plays capped by an 8-yard pass from Tagovailoa to Cedric Wilson Jr. in tight coverage.

After The Ravens answered with an 85-yard scoring drive, the Dolphins had another go-ahead touchdown in reach, but Tyreek Hill inexplicably dropped it in the end zone.

It didn’t help that star cornerback Howard left early with a foot injury. Not that Howard could have done much to slow the Ravens, who seemed to have a step or 10 on Miami defenders all day.
The Ravens scored touchdowns on five of their first six drives (not counting one play at the end of the half).

A long kickoff return to open the second half and a short touchdown drive pushed Baltimore’s advantage to 35-13, and it only became more painful from there.

When the Dolphins created a glimmer of hope with a fumble recovery in the third quarter, Tagovailoa overthrew Hill for an interception on the next play.

But most painful was seeing Chubb carted off with what had the look of a season-ender.

As to whether Chubb and Tua should have still been in the one-sided game at the time they were hurt, coach Mike McDaniel said, “I would like to have a time machine for sure.”

Both teams came into the game suffering the effects of December in the NFL.

Dolphins missing key players

The Dolphins’ offense was missing 1,000-yard rusher Raheem Mostert and 1,000-yard receiver Jaylen Waddle, as well as starting right guard Robert Hunt.

The Ravens, with the league’s No. 1 defense, were coming off a short week after their Monday night win at San Francisco. They were missing safety Kyle Hamilton, one of the best in the biz, as well as cornerback Brandon Stephens. Ravens guard Kevin Zeitler was also out.

The Dolphins were fortunate to have their starting secondary back together with safety Jevon Holland active for the first time since injuring both knees Nov. 24 against the Jets. Cornerbacks Howard and Jalen Ramsey, both listed as questionable late in the week, were also on the field. But Howard didn’t make it through the first quarter.

This time of year, everyone playing is dealing with ailments. So both teams could point to impaired rosters.

As it turned out, Baltimore was the king of pain, dishing out a thorough beating.

The question will be whether the Dolphins can shake off the hangover and meet the challenge of their division nemesis.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Kelly Olynyk and Jazz take down the Heat

After missing four games in a row with a calf strain, Jimmy Butler hurt his right foot in his return as the Heat dueled with the rebuilding Jazz in Utah, changing leads 25 times before defeat. No squad was ever ahead by more than eight points.

Productive nights from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro couldn’t save the squad from former Heatle Kelly Olynyk, who showed up the visitors in the second half with inside finishes and eight feeds for his teammates.

Nikola Jovic started at power forward, and RJ Hampton got his second consecutive start at point guard, but each played less than 10 minutes. Kyle Lowry (head contusion), Caleb Martin (ankle), and Josh Richardson (back) were absent.

Herro hit four of Miami’s first six baskets, attacking the low man in the zone and pulling up from midrange. The rest of his teammates converted six of 14 baskets in the interval, but the obvious missing ingredient to the offense was Butler, who didn’t have a field goal attempt.

In the second quarter, Butler logged nearly the last eight minutes but only made one basket- a catch-and-shoot jumper at the elbow- as the Heat made three of its final 10 buckets. The squad struggled to drain threes against the zone and in transition. If not for Adebayo’s sweet shooting in the lane, the evening would have turned ugly for the Heat earlier.

For the Jazz, Collin Sexton worked around screens, slicing into the paint like a freshly forged blade piercing flesh. Olynyk burned the Heat with a pump fake and drive to the basket, plus a deep jumper and a hook at close range.

At halftime, the visitors were down 53-54, having registered just four second chance and three fastbreak points. It had an edge in rebounding by four and free throw attempts by five, yet behind on field goals by 10. The reserve crew had 20 points, and Utah’s produced 26.

In the third quarter, Butler slipped a ghost screen for a three-foot layup assisted by Jovic and was fouled twice on a roll to the basket and transition attack. He then left with an injury to his right foot after almost six minutes and didn’t come back.

Still, in the third frame, the Heat supplied 35 points. Adebayo created contact by faking Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler into the air and driving through his man for free throw attempts. And Kevin Love, Duncan Robinson, Herro and Jovic each recorded a trifecta.

On the other side, the unexpected Heat killer was Simone Fontecchio, breaking Jovic and Robinson down with his dribble for layups.

In the fourth quarter, rookie Jazz man Keyonte George scored a dozen, cutting back door and lighting up the Heat with three triples. John Collins also hit two bangers- both at the right corner with Robinson and Adebayo contesting. Olynyk added four points and five dimes as the Heat went to a zone late.

The Heat’s offense fell apart in the fourth, notching a third of its tries and none from deep. Jaime Jaquez Jr. missed a five-foot layup that’s fallen all year and had another shot spiked by Fontecchio at the cup. The only Miami player to make more than one bucket in the period was Jamal Cain (three).

The Jazz won 117-109, led by Olynyk’s 19 points on eight of 12 shots, with 10 assists and six rebounds. Sexton scored 22 points, and George contributed 21.

After the game, Love embraced his old Cavalier teammates, Sexton and Markkanen, while Adebayo, and Robinson caught up with Kelly Olynyk and Ömer Yurtseven.

George handled the on-court interview. When asked about his scorching fourth quarter, he said, “It’s about staying ready…staying locked in. The ball went in for me tonight.”

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Touring Heat trounce Warriors

Searching for its fourth win in a row, the Miami Heat started RJ Hampton at point guard next to Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Haywood Highsmith and Bam Adebayo, overpowering the Warriors at Chase Center. Jimmy Butler (calf), Kyle Lowry (soreness), Josh Richardson (back) and Caleb Martin (ankle) were all absent, but the group still supplied 60 points in the paint.

In the first six minutes, the Heat’s attack looked potent as Adebayo moved in the paint for multiple jumpers, and Herro plus Jaquez scored from inside and out. But then it bogged down, suffering a 5-16 run by Golden State to end the quarter as it made one of its last 13 attempts.

Subsequently, coach Erik Spoelstra subbed in Nikola Jovic all of frame two, and the Heat’s 2-3 zone held the Warriors to two of seven trays. The 2-2-1 press was also used to slow down the ball coming up court. In five minutes, Jamal Cain’s activity disrupted the hosts’ actions by playing like a free safety.

Offensively, the visitors erupted for 36 points as five Heatles recorded multiple baskets, yet comically, bucket-getting rookie Jaquez had no points but three dimes. Baseline cuts, transition dunks, corner triples and blow bys put the Heat ahead 57-51 at intermission.

Before quarter three, the Heat squeezed 12 points out of the Warriors’ nine turnovers and scored 30 in the box while making five of 14 triples. No turnovers, two fewer rebounds, and less trips to the line produced nine additional field goal attempts for the Heat. Herro and Adebayo combined for 25 points on 10 of 22 shots.

Then Jaquez put the guests in control. He bumped Brandin Podziemski away for a hook, spun past Jonathan Kuminga in the post, pump-faked Klay Thompson into the air and faded over him on the baseline, and pierced the Warriors’ zone for a four-foot layup.

And Cain, who had registered just 130 minutes for the season, added eight points, pivoting around Trayce Jackson-Davis for a layup, finishing on the break and scoring at the dunker spot.

The Heat entered the fourth quarter ahead 91-76. Defensively, the squad protected the 3-point line well, contesting all eight Warrior attempts, permitting one to fall. Cain checked Curry, forcing a failed long-two and was blown by and the next attempt, but Jovic, the help defender, influenced the miss at close range.

Golden State coach Steve Kerr kept Curry in less than seven minutes of the fourth.

The Heat’s offense logged 34.8% of its tries in the last interval, but it was just outscored by three.  It won on the road 114-102. The Heat scored 60 paint points on 30 of 51 ventures. Even with a quiet night from Duncan Robinson (five points), the reserves contributed 44 points in contrast to Golden State’s bench having 51.

At the postgame presser, Spoelstra said the team wanted to set the tone at the start of its five-game Western road trip. On the topic of Hampton, Cain and Jovic’s minutes, the coach was complimentary. “Without those three guys and their contributions tonight, we are not winning this game…”

In the locker room, Herro was asked about involving them, too. He said the guys have a “next man up mentality, being able to fufill [roles] for the guys who are out.”

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Panthers Prospect Marek Alscher Ready for Second Chance With Czechia at the World Juniors

Last January in Halifax, while Czechia played for World Junior gold, Marek Alscher cheered on his teammates from the crowd.

 

Alscher, then 18, was part of the 2023 Czech World Junior team — but the Florida Panthers’ 2022 draft pick did not play in any of the games for the eventual silver medalists.   

 

One year later, Alscher is back with the Czech national junior team. This time, he’s expected to play a larger role as one of the few returning players at the tournament in Gothenburg. 

 

“I’m super excited,” Alscher told Five Reasons Sports ahead of the tournament. “Last year I was able to be part of the team. Not really playing but that’s maybe some extra motivation for me personally. I know how it was, I want to feel that again.”

 

The Czechs surprised a lot of people at the 2023 tournament — topping their group en route to the gold medal game — their first since the 2001 tournament. 

 

Despite not playing, Alscher didn’t feel as if he was left out of the journey.

 

“It was incredible, I wasn’t playing but still, I was in the locker room, the guys did include me in the team and I really felt like I was playing,” Alscher said. “After every game we actually felt like our heart rate was similar to playing. When we scored, we jumped with the fans. It was a really good experience.”

 

After the Czechs went home with their first medal in 18 years, Alscher’s schedule didn’t get any easier. 

 

He returned to Portland and played in the WHL Playoffs with the Winterhawks. Then, he joined Florida’s AHL affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers, for their Calder Cup playoff run on an ATO — skating and training with the team.

 

Later in the summer, Alscher was back in Coral Springs for the Florida Panthers Development Camp, Rookie Camp, and eventually, his second NHL Training Camp. 

 

Alscher got to experience another year of Paul Maurice’s infamous training camp skates in South Florida and play in a preseason game before being returned to his junior club. 

 

“This year I felt much more comfortable [at camp],” Alscher said. “I knew more guys and was comfortable talking in the locker room.”

 

Reflecting on his camp with the Panthers, Alscher mentioned that there was one notable player that really stood out to him in the locker room. It was fellow European defensemen and newly acquired Panther, Oliver Ekman-Larsson. 

 

“I had a chance to talk with Ekman-Larsson who was sitting next to me. I just remember how friendly he was,” Alscher said. “He really made me even more comfortable before the game. We talked like 10-15 minutes. I just remember how nice he was. On the bench. In the locker room. He really helped me a lot.”

 

When Ekman-Larsson learned that Alscher was moved by his actions, it took the veteran defenseman back to when he was learning the ropes as teenager in the NHL.

 

“[I] just try to go back to when I got into the league, my first training camp,” Ekman-Larsson said. “Just trying to be a good person and try to help other people out… People around cared about me when I first got into the league and I have a lot of thanks for those kinds of people. I think it goes a long way.”

 

Ekman-Larsson, 32, has had quite the NHL career before he joined the Panthers in the offseason. 

 

He has over 900 NHL games played, captained an NHL franchise and won a plethora of medals representing Sweden across international tournaments such as the Olympics and 

World Championships. But, before any of that happened — like Alscher — Ekman-Larsson played in the World Juniors.

 

“That tournament is a great experience. It was for me,” Ekman-Larsson said. “We came up a little bit short but it was still an unbelievable tournament.” Ekman-Larsson and Sweden took home the bronze medal back at the 2010 tournament in Saskatoon — Alscher was five at the time.

 

Alscher said that seeing how Ekman-Larsson carried himself has helped him take a leadership approach to younger players, both at his club team in Portland and with the Czech national team.

 

“It matters what you do on the ice, but also off the ice. What person are you in the locker room,” Alscher added. “ “That’s something that I’d take from him.”

 

The World Juniors is an extremely intriguing tournament. It’s the highest level of junior hockey you can find anywhere in the world. Games are played in front of thousands, with millions watching on television globally. Don’t forget, these players who are representing their countries on the highest stage  are all teenagers.  

 

Obviously every team at the tournament has their eyes set on a medal. That should be no different for the defending silver medalists, Czechia.

 

 “We are always looking for the best, we want to get the furthest. Whether it’s bronze, silver or gold, the sky’s the limit in here,” Alscher said. “Our goal is just to work as hard as we can and get as far as we can.”

 

As a 19-year-old, Alscher will age out following this year’s World Juniors in Gothenburg. When asked what he wants to take away from the tournament, the young defenseman took a page out of Ekman-Larsson’s book of leadership.

 

“We were struggling a bit before I left in Portland. If we are going to have a good tournament, that’s what I would love to bring to the team,” Alscher said. “It’s hard to say now before the tournament… but yea it’s probably what I would say. Just a winning mentality.”

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Heat hold off 76ers on Christmas Day

The NBA’s fourth-slotted XMAS day matchup of 76ers @ Miami was more eventful than anticipated considering the absences of MVP Joel Embiid- a no-go with a sprained ankle for the visitors- and Jimmy Butler- out for the hosts because of an illness and calf strain. It didn’t matter. The 76ers got within striking distance late. The Heat were carried by rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. And there was even an R.J. Hampton sighting.

Early, the Heat went down double digits because Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro were exploited off the dribble, Jaquez was backed down by Tobias Harris and Caleb Martin failed to recover to the corner in time on a kick out to, again, Harris. But Jaquez and Bam Adebayo unbuttoned the offense for the Heat with a storm of inside cuts through the middle, post-ups, transition attacks and a pull-up jumper.

But the first to go down was Martin, who had five rebounds nearly eight minutes in. He hurt his right ankle, tracking a loose ball out of bounds. He labored through subsequent possessions, but coach Erik Spoelstra subbed Jamal Cain in, ending Martin’s night.

To start the second quarter, Lowry caught and elevated for a layup in the lane but got tripped by Harris, getting him clipped in the back of the head by Adebayo’s knee.

Cain issued a take foul on the following play, and Lowry wobbled on the way up with the help of his teammates. He wasn’t medically examined after almost getting knocked out. Apparently, someone needs to have a seizure from excess contact to the head for concussion protocol to take effect at Kaseya Center.

As the interval progressed, Tyrese Maxey, who missed six tries in the first, misfired over Cain and Hampton’s tentacles. Yet, Philadelphia’s backup center, Mohamed Bamba, converted six of seven shots from inside and out. His issue was failing to stop Herro’s floater and Kevin Love’s deep jumper.

Before halftime, Herro also hit a fall-away shot in the corner plus another on the same side over Kelly Oubre and cut through the center for a left-handed layup. Adebayo scored seven more points. And JJJ spun past Oubre for a close-range finish and scored again in transition.

At halftime, the Heat were ahead 63-49, with two points scored off turnovers, eleven on the break, four from second chances and 26 in the paint. Herro, Adebayo and Jaquez combined for 44 points on 17 of 30 attempts. In that span, the hosts held Philadelphia to 35.8% shooting.

In the third quarter, the Heat fell apart defensively, conceding 37 points in a weak zone and man coverage. Maxey was still struggling, but Oubre, Melton and Harris battered the Heat with triples and drive-bys.

In this frame, Herro bricked five trays as Philly contested cleanly after the catch. But Jaquez was depended on, canning an open corner trifecta, seizing the baseline for a layup and pulling up from 17 feet away.

Both squads were tied at 86 entering the fourth quarter and, because they couldn’t defend without fouling, were in the bonus with under eight minutes to go. Philadelphia made seven of 13 freebies, and Miami logged 13 of 14. Aside from that, Jaquez cut again on the baseline, this time for a dunk, plus swished a floater over Harris in the paint. And Adebayo scored three more baskets in the lane.

The Heat won 119-113, finishing with a 20-point rebound advantage and 10 more free throw attempts. In the half court, Miami scored 103.2 points per 100 of those plays, good enough for the 66th percentile of all games this season, per Cleaning the Glass.

Jaquez, who had a career night of 31 points on 11 of 15 shots and 10 rebounds, handled the on-court interview. He said, “It was a great team effort all around.”

At the postgame presser, Adebayo was also pleased. He said, “We got the W and that’s most important because Spo is still undefeated (9-0) on Christmas.”