Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Don’t Blame Kyle Lowry for the Miami Heat’s Mess

In 18 months, Kyle Lowry has played in 103 games, regular season + Playoffs, for the Miami Heat. He’s helped them get to Game 7 of the eastern conference finals and is currently assisting the group in regaining ground in the standings (eighth, 17-17).

Since he got to Miami, Lowry has dealt with fair and unjust criticism. It’s written enough online that he hasn’t scored enough or got inside the paint with two feet as easily as in previous stops. One of the most common verbal jabs was that he looked too heavy.

Miami started well in 2021/2022. It masked the eye test of the unit’s lead guard performing below expectations. He played too much from the outside, and his numbers were down significantly. This season, he’s operating the same way, but the Miami Heat hasn’t achieved nearly the same level of success because of too many issues plaguing the team.

Likely the Heat’s no.1 problem is that Jimmy Butler has missed 38.2% of the season. Through Miami’s first 34 games in 2021/2022, JB appeared in 19 matches, and the Heat held a 21-13 record, per Basketball Reference. That type of achievement is unsustainable in back-to-back years in the NBA without a team’s best player.

This season has been filled with crushing disappointments at home. Did Lowry ominously drop off when he got to Miami, or is this the player he was for a while before wearing white hot?

Lowry will be 37 on March 25. He hasn’t taken more than half of his shots from inside the arc since 2015/2016. In those seven seasons after, #7 has only had three years where over 40% of his attempts were 2-pointers.

The Heatles aren’t as lethal from 3-point range through 34 games as they were when they got to the ECF. Then, Miami was second in the NBA in efficiency from the corners and second in percentage on above the break triples. This season, the Heat are 29th and 17th in those categories.

With the Heat not converting at the same rate as it previously did, opponents can now liberally send more help on drives or cuts to the basket, daring Miami into a drive-and-kick. That’s not a favorable coverage for someone who has lost a step or two.

Most times Lowry gets by a defender in the half court, he has the help of a screen. In the open court, he is dangerous because of his high IQ and on-target hit-ahead passes. The issue is that Miami is not a group that plays fast. They are 26th in transition frequency and 28th in pace.

Even if the Heat were to play quicker, I’m not sure how much Lowry’s body could sustain competing for the 35.9 minutes he is now before bumps and bruises emerge. He’s currently averaging two more minutes a night than last season and is on pace to play nine more games.

It’s an unrealistic expectation to hold someone in their mid-30s to the standard they set while in their prime. Some fools might continue to place too much responsibility on Lowry because of the dimensions of his contract ending in 2024. Whatever he earns is the fault of the front office, not his.

The front office’s gamble paid off splendidly last year. The Heat was probably a shot away from a second trip in three seasons to the NBA Finals. It was also one of the most exciting years for supporters in the franchise’s history. I won’t take that for granted.

The Heat are stuck in purgatory, but this season is only 41% over. I’ve seen stranger and more fortunate things happen to those less deserving, like the 2018/2019 Houston Rockets. On Dec. 12, 2018, the James Harden-led squad had won 12 games, and the outfit was 14th in the western conference. That team, inspired by a historic run from the Beard, finished as the fourth seed with 53 wins.

For the Heat to get the most out of Lowry, it will need its best players around consistently. Key guys in-and-out of the lineup hurts the team’s continuity.

The Miami Heat Are Back At .500 (Again)

Without the headliners, the Heat beat the Timberwolves at home and improved to a .500 record (17-17) for the fourth time this season. It was the first night since Dec. 5 that Miami wasn’t a victim of the infamous turd quarter. 

 

Magnificently, while Miami was off target from the perimeter during the first half, they clobbered the Wolves inside and finished 18 out of 24 shots.  In this period, Minnesota couldn’t stay in front of Tyler Herro when he focused on the interior.  He used a Nikola Jović screen to dust D’Angelo Russell and snake dribbled into the lane for a floater.  

 

On his next pair of buckets, he drove left past Austin Rivers at the top of the key for an uncontested finish at the cup. On his last make of the first half, Herro isolated Rivers at the key.  Haywood Highsmith came curling from the post to set a pick, but #14 rejected it, reset, then drove left again past his matchup for a pull-up jumper in the paint.

 

Ahead of the intermission, Heat rookie Orlando Robinson logged 10 points on five out of six tries, plus six rebounds.  He ran inverted pick and roll with Victor Oladipo, and slammed the rock inside after the reception on his first evening score.  Another of his buckets came as the roll man after freeing up his teammate. Three more baskets were putbacks after diving to the rim.

 

Undermanned and up three points at halftime, in the middle of the madness of key players out of the lineup, the Heat likely found their backup center.  Because of injuries and matchups, the reserve five spot has been a revolving door this campaign.  Robinson’s recent work as a screener, roller and rebounder immediately makes him the best Robinson on the team and the main option at center when Adebayo sits and the team waits for Ömer Yurtseven to return from his ankle injury.

 

Max Strus finding his jumper and contributing five triples on 50% shooting, in addition to two dunks on cuts from the baseline, was also instrumental in Miami’s dub.  

 

As a unit, the Heat protected the ball well, only allowing nine turnovers (league average is 14.7) and four fastbreak points.  Minnesota’s 22 turnovers, nine of them coming off Miami steals, is the primary reason why the home team finished a three-point game taking 23 more shots.  In the second half, both squads scored 54 points, but the visitors shot 14.8% better from the field and 16.3% higher from 3-point range.

 

 It was surprisingly one of Miami’s finest wins of the season.  On most occasions, when a group is down their two best players, I am conditioned to expect them to lose.  Even with Minnesota having Karl-Anthony Towns absent with an injured calf, the Wolves still had two All-Star caliber players on the floor in Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert.

 

Up three points and with 2.5 seconds left, Miami was curiously defending a Jaden McDaniels sideline out-of-bounds pass with Kyle Lowry, the shortest man on the floor.  Luckily for the hosts, the entry pass was a bit wide to a cutting Russell, who couldn’t secure it.  Lowry got a swipe on the ball; then Victor Oladipo flung it into the air.  Next, the curtains closed.

 

The Heat still has a long way to go before they climb out of purgatory.

 

Tua Tagovialoa was dramatically outplayed by Justin Herbert in the Dolphins' 23-17 loss to the Chargers.

Pressure Point: Tua Tagovailoa faces biggest career test at Buffalo

The surprise wasn’t how well Justin Herbert carved up the Miami Dolphins defense in the Los Angeles Chargers’ 23-17 win Sunday night.

Herbert is that good. He’s been showing it since he arrived in the NFL in 2020.

The surprise was how poorly Tua Tagovailoa played for the second week in a row on the West Coast.

Once is a bad game. Twice in a row is a trend.

The trend runs deeper than two weeks, as Simon Clancy @siclancy points out in highlighting Tagovailoa’s 0-4 career record in consequential December/January games on the road: four touchdowns, six interceptions, 64.29 passer rating. Margin of defeat, just under 21 points.

The 34-3 drubbing in the penultimate game of last season (Jan. 2) at Tennessee choked out playoff hope built on a seven-game winning streak, and it came against Miami’s former long-time quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

Sunday was another of those oh-so-Dolphins humiliations with Herbert, the quarterback they passed up in the 2020 draft, throwing for 367 yards while Tagovailoa had a paltry 145 yards, 35.7 completion percentage and 65.3 passer rating on another abysmal off-kilter day.

Tua needs bounce-back game badly

Even the NFL rubbed salt in the wound with a snarky headline on its YouTube highlights video of the game (later removed): “Justin Herbert shows Miami what they could’ve had.”

Look, it’s been clearly evident that the Dolphins left the better quarterback on the table in 2020 when they drafted Tua at No. 5 and left Herbert for the Chargers to take at No. 6.

The questions about Tua were always about Tua himself and had nothing to do with Herbert: Could he stay healthy and productive, given his injury history and stature? Could the Dolphins win with him?

There’s always been the possibility both teams could have come out of that draft with franchise-caliber quarterbacks.

Durability remains an issue, but in his third season the view of Tagovailoa was finally trending in that direction. With the Dolphins on a five-game winning streak and Tagovailoa putting up sterling numbers for accuracy, efficiency and down-field connections there were chants of M-V-P, M-V-P.

Two puzzling, off-target performances later in losses at San Francisco and L.A. have undone a lot of the headway he was making — a lot of it coming against the likes of the Lions, Bears, Browns and Texans.

Dolphins stymied by Chargers’ scheme

The stumble against the 49ers’ league-leading defense could be shrugged off to some extent. The Chargers should have been prime for picking, though. They were missing six starters on defense, including two in the secondary. The previous week the Raiders’ Davante Adams burned them for 177 yards on eight receptions.

Chargers defensive-minded coach Brandon Staley stymied the Dolphins by throwing press coverage at the Dolphins’ speedy receivers (35 percent of the time, according to Next Gen Stats) and clogging the middle of the field that Tua and his receivers like to exploit. The Dolphins managed only 219 total yards.

Even Tyreek Hill, except for the 60-yard TD catch when Michael Davis got his feet tangled and fell, had a pedestrian receiving day. Jaylen Waddle was mostly MIA.

Dolphins rookie coach Mike McDaniel’s aura as an innovative offensive mind lost some luster Sunday. He didn’t adjust to counter the Chargers’ coverage scheme, and McDaniel’s vaunted zone-blocking running attack didn’t find any traction for the second consecutive game. He didn’t even give it much of a chance.

Dolphins’ playoff fortunes diminishing rapidly

Now a Dolphins season that held more promise than Dolfans have seen in years is taking on the trajectory of a lead balloon.
With the chilling prospect of a snowy Saturday night in Buffalo just ahead.

A win against either the 49ers or Chargers would have given the Dolphins the chance to regain command of the AFC East with a win over the Bills. Now they are likely playing for a wild card and another tough assignment on the road.

If that.

These Dolphins have more issues than Tua’s misfires the past two weeks. The defense has been victimized by less distinguished quarterbacks than Herbert — Brock Purdy and Zach Wilson, for instance. The addition of Brandon Chubb hasn’t brought a notable improvement to a unit that has been subpar all season.

While L.A. was pressing Miami receivers, Dolphins defensive coordinator Josh Boyer opted for a weird conservative alignment just before the half with the Chargers facing third-and-goal at the Miami 17. Eight Miami defenders were spread out near the goal line, and Austin Ekeler was able to follow an escort of blockers to the 1. Ekeler scored from there on fourth down and the Chargers took a 17-7 lead at the half.

There has certainly has been a lot to question lately about this Dolphins team that seemed bound to break the mold from a painful past. Fortunes pivot quickly in the NFL.

Tagovailoa said recently that last season he questioned himself, wondering, “Do I suck?”

That would be a bit harsh now, given his overall body of work this season.

There is one way to get his season trending in the right direction again. Snowy Buffalo awaits.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Five Takeaways from Panthers loss to Kraken

SUNRISE: On the second half of a back-to-back, the Florida Panthers hosted the Seattle Kraken Sunday night in Sunrise.

 

This is the second time the two sides played this month; Florida won the first meeting 5-1 in Seattle. 

 

The Kraken got their revenge tonight, putting up five goals of their own in a 5-2 win over the Panthers.

 

Here’s tonight’s takeaways:

Eric Staal gets his first goal of the season

It hasn’t been the easiest start to his Panthers career for long-time NHL veteran Eric Staal. He was goalless through 21 games this season, with only four points to his name.

 

The 38-year-old center, who has over 1,000 career points, finally put the puck in the back of the net to get his first goal as a Panther. This was Staal’s first NHL goal since 2021.

 

You could see how much getting this one meant for him, as he let out an ecstatic celebration following the goal.

 

A bad start had Florida behind way too early

A team never wants to go down in a game, but when you’re playing catch up from the jump, you lose the momentum swing early. 

 

Seattle came out and had the perfect start to the game, scoring 64 seconds into the first period. 


After Carter Verhaeghe rifled a one-timer shot off the crossbar, Seattle transitioned the other way, and Matty Beniers delivered. The 20-year-old fired a slapshot from the slot, beating Bobrovsky up high for his 11th goal of the season.

 

Before some fans could make way to their seats, the Panthers were already behind in the game. 

 

Ryan Lomberg gets a major penalty and a game misconduct – the league will look at it

Down 3-1 in the third, Florida had no momentum, the crowd was out of it, the entire team looked defeated.

 

With the Panthers on the penalty kill, Cats forward Ryan Lomberg chipped the puck into the zone past Justin Schultz. With the puck in the corner, Lomberg hit Schultz from behind, which lead to a large scrum of bodies fighting in front of the Kraken net. 

 

Following the mayhem, Lomberg was assessed a five-minute major for boarding, a roughing minor, and a game misconduct.

 

Due to the call being a major penalty, the league will review the hit and determine if it is worthy of a suspension. The already shorthanded Panthers forward unit could be without another regular depending on the league’s decision. 

 

The Panthers power play couldn’t strike, again

The power play had their opportunities tonight. Down 2-1 in the third, Florida had a chance to tie the game on the man-advantage. However, the Kraken not only killed off the penalty, but immediately scored after to extend their lead to two.  

 

Florida went 0/3 on the power play tonight. This is the third straight game they went scoreless on their pp chances. 

 

Florida has one goal in their last 14 power play chances.

 

Sergei Bobrovsky plays both games on the back-to-back

After Sergei Bobrovsky had to come in for Spencer Knight last week in Winnipeg, the Russian goalie has started three games in four days, including a back-to-back.

 

Knight is still out of the Panthers lineup as he deals with a non-COVID illness, and with no update on the availability of Knight, Bob is going to keep on playing. 

 

While the stats department hasn’t looked the greatest, Bob looked quite comfortable in the net. Tonight, he had to make more than a few big saves while the game was close. Unfortunately, there was not a lot of support in front of him on both ends of the puck. 

 

“I felt good, it’s nice to see some rhythm, you know, play hockey, play lots of minutes, I love that so it’s great to be there fo sure,” Bobrovsky said. 

 

Bobrovsky had 27 saves on 31 shots tonight.

Five Takeaways from Panthers win over Red Wings

SUNRISE – After a long Western Canada/Seattle road trip, the Florida Panthers were back home Thursday night at FLA Live arena.

 

In their first game at home since Nov. 26, the Panthers faced off against the Detroit Red Wings, a team who sat above them in the standings entering tonight’s game. 

 

After a 5-2 loss to Winnipeg last time out, the Panthers bounced back tonight with a 5-1 win over the Wings at home.

 

Here’s tonight’s takeaways:

The captain is back 

Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov missed the entire road trip as he was recuperating from a non-COVID illness. 

 

Tonight he was back on the ice for the first game since Nov. 23 against the Boston Bruins.

 

The return came at a good time as his fellow countryman and center Anton Lundell is still out of the Cats lineup with a non-COVID illness.

 

Lundell was running Barkov’s spot on the top power play unit when the captain was out. Barkov jumped back into his center role tonight. 

 

Tonight wasn’t a dominating game by Barkov and that makes sense after he’s been out so long. And with recent reports that came out saying Barkov had a bout with pneumonia , it was a good sign to see him play upwards of 16 minutes and get an assist on the scoresheet. 

 

Shorthanded Panthers get contributions from AHL call ups 

The return of Barkov was a huge win for the Panthers team as they were without his services for the last six games. 

 

Despite their captain making his way back into the lineup, the Cats were still shorthanded with both Anton Lundell and Radko Gudas missing tonight’s games, while Patric Hornqvist is on LTIR. 

 

Florida had to look towards a few of their minor league guys tonight to fill the void and they were pretty effective. 

 

Chris Tierney, who was playing in his second NHL game of the season tonight, opened the scoring with his first goal of the year towards the end of the first period.

 

In the next frame, another AHL call up Matt Kiersted found himself with his first goal of the season after the 24-year-old defenseman jumped up in the play, putting a loose puck past Red Wings goalie Alex Nedeljkovic.

 

Last game against Winnipeg, Zac Dalpe scored in his first game of the year after being called up from the AHL affiliate Charlotte Checkers

No power play luck tonight, but really no problem

In a game where nearly everything went right for the Cats, the one area that wasn’t prosperous was the powerplay. 

 

Florida went 0/3 on the man-advantage tonight; losing the special teams battle as Detroit went 1/4.

 

Other than striking out on the PP, the offense was effective and Mambo No. 5 was played tonight, so the Panthers will be ok with this small area of defeat.

 

Matthew Tkachuk cannot be stopped

Another game, another Matthew Tkachuk show. 

 

Tonight against Detroit, Tkachuk had scored a great goal off the rush where he sold the pass, the shot and probably a lottery ticket before roofing it over Nedeljkovic. 

 

No. 19’s two point performance was his 13th multipoint game of the season. The 24-year-old has 37 points in 25 games this season, this is the most among players on new teams in 2022-2023.

 

This season when the Panthers were going through rough spells, he was one of the few bright spots on the team. Of course when they put on a dominant outing like tonight, it’s a cherry on top. 

 

Bob didn’t see much, but he kept the door closed

The last few weeks has seen Spencer Knight command the Panthers net for the majority of the games. 

 

Knight was out of the lineup tonight with an illness, so Sergei Bobrovsky got the crease.

 

It hasn’t been the best year for Bob, with him posting a 4-6-1 record, a 3.72 GAA and a save percentage of .880% before tonight’s game.

 

Florida’s defense had a solid showing tonight, only allowing Detroit to get 20 shots on goal. And for Bob, he only gave up one goal, which would come off a Red Wings power play. 

 

There’s no telling how long Spencer Knight might miss due to his non-COVID illness, so until he is cleared, it will be Bob’s net. 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: The Miami Heat Are Stuck

Decent teams don’t lose at home by 20 to a six-win group in December. Congratulations to the Detroit Pistons for its seventh win of the season. This is a genuine compliment. They did a tremendous service to observers watching the home outfit.

Whoever follows the Heat, if they needed another reason not to take this team seriously, they now have one. It doesn’t matter that Miami was missing Jimmy Butler. Detroit only had two road wins before they rolled into FTX(?) Arena and the visitors delivered the Heat its fifth home loss of the year.

Let’s not forget how last season, the Heat didn’t have that many Ls in its building until Jan.15.

It was dreadful enough that on Monday night, Miami couldn’t hang with a Grizzlies team down three starters. On Tuesday, the Heatles started the game shooting well from the field, ending the period with a 16.7-point differential in shooting percentage in their favor.

Yet, after 12 minutes, Miami was just up five points because they were recklessly taking care of the ball.

Defensively, Miami’s 2-3 zone was about as fierce as a golden retriever. The Heat barely had a three-point lead at halftime, thanks to Herro making all seven field goal attempts for 21 points in the period.

In the second half, Detroit connected on half of its 3-pointers, making 10. Six of those triples were splashed by Bojan Bogdanović. His pump fake at the top of the key even got Adebayo to leave his feet. Bojan then found Killian Hayes in the right corner for a give-and-go he finished as he avoided taking a charge under the rim.

While Detroit was inbounding under the basket, Miami was set up in its usual zone. Hayes noticed Herro too far from Bogdanović in the left corner and zipped a pass to his man. Tyler, too, bit on the Croatian sniper’s outside fake, leaping into the personal space of his teammates on the bench. Bojan dribbled to the post and converted a jumper over Max Strus and Herro, who managed to get back to the frame.

What the Pistons did to the Heat was a humbling reminder that botching defensive assignments will make solid players like Bogdanović resemble an all-time marksman like Klay Thompson. Debacles such as this often send supporters home frustrated over why they paid good money to see that when they could have stayed at home.

Victor Oladipo’s return was upstaged by a team who will likely pick at the top of the lottery in late June. In his 18 minutes, his speed was still there, and he could create separation easily. He made 2/5 jump shots and missed some makeable layups under the cup. He finished 3/9 from the field.

The hope traffickers might cling to the fact that only 30% of the season has passed and that picking up lost ground is achievable. Perhaps. But a few more nights like their last two is a fail-safe course on having guys mentally check out.

 

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For more on the Heat’s struggles, check out the latest episode of Five on the Floor.

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What’s most concerning is that this season is starting to feel similar to the Heat’s 2020/2021 campaign. Through 25 games that year, Miami’s record was 11-14. The same as what it is now.

The Heatles’ window, if it isn’t shut already, can’t afford to waste the precious time Butler is still a top player. Part of the reason he is still in that condition is because he’s played fewer chunks of the season each year since he arrived. Miami doesn’t have enough firepower to have continued success without him. As my colleague Ethan Skolnick pointed out in early October, he’ll likely never play at least three-quarters of a year again.

Aside from a heaven-sent trade, there aren’t many options to improve because ownership’s checkbook is aching. The Heat have a couple of draft picks available to deal, but they shouldn’t give those up unless the team is guaranteed to be right back in the thick of it. It doesn’t seem likely because for Miami to take back a good player, who is probably not on their rookie deal, they’d have to attach either Lowry or Duncan Robinson with a first-rounder and Herro.

If things don’t improve with Butler, the Heat might be stuck until Lowry is off the books in 2024. JB will turn 35 that September.

The team has committed to Adebayo and Herro long-term. Keeping those FRPs should be the priority to help build around them with quality and cheap labor as they keep ascending. The Heat are going to have to get better with what they have. Don’t kill the messenger.

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Grizzlies Maul Heat’s Interior

When it looked like the Heat were starting to turn things around, they blew a golden opportunity to get back to .500.  Visiting the Grizzlies at the birthplace of rock and roll (Memphis), Miami continued to get outplayed in the second half by a team down three starters.

 

Heading into halftime for Miami, there were already bad omens.  They’d only scored eight points in the paint to the Grizzlies’ 36.  Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler combined for 3/11 made shots.  And the Heat’s zone was dull.  

 

Yet, the score read 58-51 in favor of Memphis at the intermission.  

 

In the last 24 minutes, Butler showed up, scoring 14 points on 71% efficiency from the floor.  Yet the rest of the outfit struggled to finish.  Memphis’ 2-3 zone neutered the Heat’s long-range shooting in the second half after giving up 45.8% in the first.

 

Tyler Herro went 0/5 from 3-point range in that stretch.  He also missed a wide-open triple at the top of the key as the game was tied at 68 points in the third quarter.  Yet, he was the only Heatle to play all of the final period.

 

Adebayo was unrecognizable. In his previous nine games before Monday’s loss, he was logging 25.3 points and 9.9 rebounds.  It’s disappointing to watch him revert to the player he was last year.  Unless he wants to get permanently labeled the “Ultimate Tease,” he should never have nights where he only takes 13 shots unless Miami is boat racing a rival.  

 

Bam’s confidence was likely shaken by his poor shooting (2/7) in the first half. He took one fewer try following the interlude and finished with a laid-back stat line of 15 points on 38% shooting from the field, with five rebounds and four dimes.

 

Kyle Lowry recorded 3/8 3-point field goals.  The problem is they were the only shots he took.  He may not have the speed he once had, but he can’t be so disinclined to score at the rim.  If he’s not taking shots inside the arc after wrapping around a screen against the drop or scoring at close range, he is doing the other team a favor.

 

The fourth quarter was a meltdown.  Miami kept giving up the baseline and possession of the ball, putting themselves on their backfoot defensively.  They also bricked six shots at the top of the key.  Haywood Highsmith made the only triple for the Heat in the fourth quarter as he was left open up top because of miscommunication.    

 

The Heat barely scored 16 points in the last 12 minutes.  

 

The biggest surprise of the evening was how apathetic Miami looked defensively.  Usually, the three backline players covering the paint and corners seal off the interior at the first sign of a strike.  Memphis’ Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks, Santi Aldama, Steven Adams and Tyus Jones feasted in the lane, making 25/32 baskets in the square.  Counting the contributions of the other Grizzlies, they ran up 64 points in the paint.  

 

Coach Spo gave his thoughts on the inside protection after the game.  He said, “They dominated us in the paint.  We typically do that well.  We were not able to contain dribble penetration, cuts, offensive rebounding, pick and rolls to the paint.  That just looks like a misprint, 64 points in the paint allowed. It felt like they could have had quite a few more…”

 

Herro spoke to reporters in the locker room.  He said the Grizzlies were too comfortable in their assault of the rim.  

 

The loss drops the Heat to 11-13 and places them a game behind the Toronto Raptors for eighth place in the east.

 

Miami’s next game is at home on Dec. 6 against the abysmal Detroit Pistons (6-19), but it’s the second night of a back-to-back.  Miami is known to play up or down, depending on the level of competition.  Which version of them takes the stage Tuesday?

Tua Tagovailoa, with Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, had an uncharacteristically poor performance in the loss against San Francisco.

Pressure Point: Dolphins need Tagovailoa to bounce back like franchise QB

This one was (mostly) on Tua, and he knew it.

“No one really to blame but myself,” Tua Tagovailoa said after he misfired early and often in the Miami Dolphins’ 33-17 loss Sunday at San Francisco. “It sucks that we didn’t come out and do what we wanted to do collectively. Obviously, it starts with me offensively.”

This was prime example of why a franchise quarterback is so essential to rise to the top in the modern NFL.

It’s what distinguishes the rare breed that can make everything right when everything is going wrong.

Like when your defense is getting picked apart by a third-string rookie quarterback who entered the league as Mr. Irrelevant. And when you’re sophisticated zone-blocking running game is getting schooled by the one it was modeled after. And you’re facing the top-rated defense in the league without your best offensive lineman.

That’s what the Dolphins needed against the 49ers and Tagovailoa failed to deliver in the first big test of the late-season playoff push.

The frustrating part is that it was within his reach. There were ample opportunities that were missed, particularly in the first half. Receivers were open for significant gains. Pass protection was often better than may have been expected in the absence of cornerstone left tackle Terron Armstead.

Time and again Tua missed the open man. Badly.

Tagovailoa uncharacteristically inaccurate

The familiar Tua touch got misplaced somewhere on the way to Santa Clara. Several throws were too high for leaping receivers. Others fell short or off line.

It was so glaring that you started to wonder, who kidnapped Tua?

Particularly in the first half when he completed only 8 of 18 for 162 yards.

Tagovailoa came into the game second in the NFL in completion percentage 71 percent (on pace for a Dolphins season record). He finished Sunday completing just 54.6 percent of his attempts (18 of 33).

There were also interceptions on back-to-back possessions in the third quarter. The first came when intended target Jeff Wilson Jr. fell and ended Tua’s string of 193 passes without a pick.

His very next pass was also intercepted. The picks led to a pair of 49ers field goals.

“I missed guys. There is also some miscommunication of where guys should be breaking. But a poor performance on my part,” Tagovailoa said. “It’s hard to win a game when you’re not on your P’s and Q’s and you’re not dialed in.”

Third-string rookie Purdy golden for 49ers

For whatever reason, he wasn’t the accurate, efficient Tua we’re accustomed to seeing. Maybe he was rushing his throws in anticipation of the 49ers relentless pass rush.

Understandable with Nick Bosa bringing the heat all day. Bosa, the NFC’s Defensive Player of the Month for November, got a great start on December with three sacks, four quarterback hits, a forced fumble and two tackles for loss.

The NFL is a test of adversity, and the 49ers handled theirs much better with Brock Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 draft, stepping in after Jimmy Garoppolo exited on a cart with a season-ending foot injury and outshining would-be MVP candidate Tagovailoa.

Purdy had a huge conversion on under pressure on third-and 10 on touchdown drive just before the half that put San Francisco ahead to stay.

Games tend to turn on pivotal moments. Even with so much going awry for the Dolphins, the tide seemed to be swinging in their favor when they forced a punt on the first possession of the second half and an unsportsmanlike penalty on the return set up them up in 49ers territory. They advanced farther on a roughing-the-passer call against Bosa and then Raheem Mostert went 18 yards on what would have been Miami’s longest run of the game. But a phantom holding call on Robert Hunt negated it. Tua threw the first interception on the next play.

Loss not devastating to Dolphins’ playoff chances

The result certainly wasn’t all on Tagovailoa. He finished with 295 yards and two touchdowns, including a 45-yard toss to Tyreek Hill that pulled the Dolphins within a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. But it wasn’t the elite-level performance the Dolphins needed against an opponent like the 49ers.

It happens to the best of them. Patrick Mahomes fell short of his standards Sunday in the Chiefs’ loss to the Bengals.

Tua looked like a franchise QB in the early season comeback against the Ravens and in some dazzling efforts against lesser opponents.

The Dolphins need him to produce as that level in the vital games ahead, starting next Sunday night against the Justin Herbert and the Chargers. A win would enable the Dolphins to regain command of the AFC East the following week at Buffalo against Josh Allen and the Bills.

A very tall order indeed, made more difficult by the game being moved up a day to Saturday, Dec. 17.

It’s the sort of challenge that separates a franchise quarterback from a pretender.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Jimmy Butler’s 5 Best Performances Since Signing with the Miami Heat

Without a doubt, Jimmy Butler these past three years has been instrumental in success for the Miami Heat, when the Heat are in a position to win, it’s more than likely because the six-time NBA All-Star, Butler has led the charge.

 

Jimmy Butler has not only exceeded expectations, but he has established himself as a true leader for the Miami Heat and tends to show up when the Heat need him the most, and Miami Heat fans can only hope that when all is said and done for Butler in his career, that number twenty-two will be hanging from the rafters.

 

With that said, Jimmy Butler was criticized by multiple NBA analysts when he joined the Miami Heat, with the main criticism being a question of why the Marquette alum chose to leave the Philadelphia 76ers, a team in which was believed to be among the favorites in the East to head to the NBA finals, to the Heat who hadn’t seen the playoffs the previous year. 

 

Not only did Butler lead the Miami Heat to the NBA finals the same year he signed with the team, but along came with it phenomenal performances throughout the next three years that will never be forgotten by Heat fans, as Butler continues to try and lead the Heat to a championship. So now let’s go through Jimmy Butler’s five best performances since signing with Miami.

 

  1. Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 1 Vs. Bucks, August 21st, 2020 

Stats: 40 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 block

 

Score: MIA 115 MIL 104

 

Butler dominated in the first game against the Milwaukee Bucks in the Conference Semifinals in 2020, setting a precedent of what was to come for the rest of the series. Shooting 13 for 20 from the field, resulted with Butler having a 40-point game and a 65% field-goal percentage, which was definitely a message well sent to the Bucks from the Big Face Coffee founder. The Heat would end up dominating this series, eliminating the Bucks in just five games.

 

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  1. Eastern Conference First Round Game 2 Vs. Hawks, April 19th, 2022

Stats: 45 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals

 

Score: MIA 115 ATL 105

 

Jimmy Butler’s big game against the Hawks, can be seen as an answer back to Trae Young, after Butler and Young got into a face-to-face altercation in the previous game, which was the first game of the Hawks-Heat playoff matchup. Butler responded huge, resulting in his fourth career highest points in a game. This was Butler’s first big game in the 2021-22 playoffs, with more great peformances to follow. Miami would go on to win this series, winning four games to Atlanta’s one. 

 

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(For more on the Miami Heat, check out the Five on the Floor podcast)

 

 

  1. Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 Vs. Celtics, May 27th, 2022 

Stats: 47 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists, 4 steals

 

Score: MIA 111 BOS 103

 

This game is Butler’s biggest game of his career in front of live Heat fans, the Miami Heat were facing elimination, and were in a must-win situation. Former Heat power forward P.J. Tucker told Butler before the game that the Heat needed 50-points from him, Butler didn’t respond, only giving Tucker a nod, and proceeded to go deliver. Butler helped the Heat go on to face the Celtics in a game seven. Although Butler credits his teammates for his performance, he also credits a phone-call and text from Miami Heat legend Dwyane Wade. Butler at the time was dealing with knee inflammation, and Wade gave him motivation to play through it and continue to build his legacy.

 

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  1. NBA Finals Game 3 Vs. Lakers, October 4th, 2020 

Stats: 40 points, 11 rebounds, 13 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks

 

Score: MIA 115 LAL 104

 

The Miami Heat started off their first finals appearance in six years, losing the first two games of the series to the Lakers. Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragić had both gotten injured in the first game of the series, which had a big affect on the Heat as they were both key starters on this underdog Miami team, so it was now up to Butler to lead the Heat to a win. Butler exceeded as he would go on to drop a 40-point triple-double, and prevented the Lakers from going up three games to nothing. Butler was everywhere on the floor, from facilitating to scoring, to defending Lakers superstar LeBron James.

 

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  1. NBA Finals Game 5 Vs. Lakers, October 9th, 2020 

Stats: 35 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists, 5 steals, 1 block

 

Score: MIA 111 LAL 108

 

In what is arguably one of the greatest finals performances of all time, Jimmy Butler cemented his legacy as an all-time great in this finals game. The Heat down three to one, facing elimination, the perennial all-star stepped up for Miami big-time playing all but 49-seconds in this game five thriller. It was one-possession game for about the final seven minutes, and Butler scored for Miami and put the Heat up four different times in the last two minutes of the game. Butler dropped a triple-double, along with 5 steals and a block, and hit the game-winning free-throws. This game not only helped Butler’s legacy, but it proved he’s one of the greatest ever to play for the Miami Heat.

Tua Tagovailoa has thrived in coach Mike McDaniel's offense with the Miami Dolphins.

Pressure Point: Tua, Dolphins in position to prove themselves on field, defy doubters

The narrative around Tua Tagovailoa has always been a rush to judgment. Not only in the voices writing him off in his first two seasons with the Miami Dolphins, but even now that the song has changed to a chorus of lavish praise.

The transformation of Tua this season in Mike McDaniel’s offense has been heartening and given long-suffering Dolfans a sense they may finally have a quarterback to lead the team to genuine success.

It has certainly been fun to watch the third-year quarterback leading the most prolific Dolphins offense since Danny Boy was letting it fly to the Marks Brothers.
In just a few weeks Tagovailoa has gone from much-maligned to canonized.

I prefer to withhold assessment until this season’s body of work is complete.

49ers defense formidable adversary

The NFL season doesn’t begin in earnest until Thanksgiving. It is about to get very real for Tua and the Dolphins with a six-pack of treachery standing between them and the playoffs.

The first foray into the gauntlet, Sunday at San Francisco, will give a more telling read on this Dolphins offense than the current five-game winning streak, attained against some of the most porous defenses in the NFL.

They will be up against the top-ranked 49ers defense with a punishing pass rush led by Fort Lauderdale native Nick Bosa, who has 11.5 sacks and was just named the NFC’s Defensive Player of the Month for November. Oh, and the Dolphins are holding out hope that star left tackle Terron Armstead, who strained a pectoral muscle last Sunday, will be available to try to slow him down (he’s listed as doubtful).

The most significant images from the 30-15 win over the lowly Texans were the four rapid-fire sacks of Tua after Brandon Shell took Armstead’s place.

This is not a forecast of doom. The 49ers aren’t infallible, despite allowing only 40 points while winning their past four games. That was preceded by giving up 44 points in a loss to the Chiefs.

Dolphins face tough stretch run

It is cautionary. Miami’s five-game winning streak has come against five sub-.500 teams that are a combined 16-39-1.

The Dolphins’ six remaining opponents are a combined 39-30. Five of them are in playoff position now or contending for a wild-card spot.

The next three are on the road: Sunday at the 7-4 49ers, then at the 6-5 Los Angeles Chargers and at their primary AFC East nemesis, the 9-3 Buffalo Bills.

Only the 4-8 Packers at home on Christmas Day seems like a potential breather.

They finish with a cold-weather visit to New England for New Year’s before the season finale at Hard Rock Stadium against the Jets.

Are these Dolphins worthy of their current lofty status (the No. 2 seed in the AFC before the Bills won on Thursday night)?

Is Tua true to the numbers he’s been putting up the past five games and now ready to lead them in serious championship pursuit?

Heat always on Tua

It doesn’t matter how the talking heads and prognosticators weigh in. The beauty of what the Dolphins have achieved to this point is they will have a chance to answer all the questions on the field.

It starts with the Protege vs. Mentor matchup in McDaniel’s return to San Francisco. Then the Tua vs. Justin Herbert Forever Debate gets an on-field airing. (Remember, Tua and the Dolphins won their previous meeting in 2020).

There will also be two episodes of Whose Weather is Tougher on Division Rivals with the Dolphins’ visits to Buffalo and New England.

For what it’s worth, CBS Sports projects the Dolphins to end up seeded No. 5 as the AFC’s top wild card with the Bills winning the East. That is based on the SportsLine computer simulation of the remainder of the NFL season.

There is no shortage of doubters out there. ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith suggested that the 49ers’ rush is a threat to “fragile” Tua’s health.

Sure, it’s a concern. The onus is on the line — Miami’s offensive line, that is — to protect its quarterback whether Armstead is there or not.

Battle to control middle of field

It’s up to Tagovailoa to continue to do what he’s been doing well in going through his progressions quickly and getting the ball to a corps of receivers that has to put fear into any defense.

The intriguing area of focus in Sunday’s game will be the intermediate middle of the field that Tua has exploited so successfully. Defending that area, where middle linebacker Fred Warner roams, happens to be what the 49ers do best.

Next Gen Stats Analyst Keegan Abdoo highlights two telling stats:

“[Tagovailoa] has 38 completions when throwing to the intermediate middle this season, a whopping 16 more than any other quarterback — and that’s despite Tua missing two whole games. [Tyree] Hill and [Jaylen] Waddle’s burst and ability to separate have been key to Tagovailoa’s success in this area, allowing the quarterback to sling it as soon as he hits the back of his drop. …

“Since Warner arrived in San Francisco, opposing quarterbacks have had as much trouble finding affordable real estate as Bay Area residents themselves. The 49ers have allowed just 71 completions to the intermediate middle over the last five seasons, 15 fewer than any other defense.”

So, something has to give Sunday, and that’s the reason for tuning in every week.

Embrace the difficulty of the task ahead. There’s no dodging it anyway.

It’s what Dolfans have been waiting years for, to see their team this relevant in the most vital stretch of a season.

Proof is in the Dec. 11 game against the Chargers being flexed to “Sunday Night Football.” The network sees ratings in Tua vs. Herbert and all the fireworks that promises.

This Dolphins franchise has endured tons of December/January heartbreak in the past. The first 11 games have given reason to believe this season may be different.

The next month and a half will determine whether there will be reason to toast a viable playoff run or face another offseason crying in our beer.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns