In the Heat’s 36th game decided by five points or fewer, Miami narrowly skated by the Atlanta Hawks at home. Atypical of its season, the hosts couldn’t miss from beyond the arc. Of course, for this type of uncommon production, there needed to be a trade-off: the ability to defend for most of the game. 

 

The Hawks seized control of the first half by scoring a few fastbreak buckets, and slicing up the point of attack, converting 19 out of 24 shots in the paint.  Dejounte Murray logged his first four baskets- three maneuvering around Adebayo for pull-up jumpers after the switch and another 15-footer over Gabe Vincent off the dribble.

 

The rest of the Hawks were soaring through the first quarter too.  The visitors recorded 76% of their attempts in the frame and led by 15 points eight minutes into the game.

 

Offensively, Miami was in sync, dropping five triples out of seven tries on both wings in the opening quarter.  Max Strus nailed the Heat’s first off a flare screen by Bam Adebayo.  Butler set up the second with Murray momentarily over-helping in the low post, uncovering Vincent at the top of the key. Victor Oladipo canned another when his defender went under Cody Zeller’s pick.  And Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson were both left open when Atlanta sent two at the ball.

 

After one half, Miami had given up 68 points but shot back into the match, only down five.  Adebayo took charge with 10 points on 80% field goal efficiency, plus four boards and a block.  Butler had eight points, with five dimes and four rebounds. Victor Oladipo also had seven on his scorecard. 

 

In the third quarter, the Heat had its strongest defensive run, holding the Hawks to 41.7% of its attempts from the floor.  The hosts were quicker to get the ball out of Murray’s hands in half-court sets, and defenders closed out quickly and did a finer job staying in front of their man.  

 

In response, Butler finished at the cup three times in the third quarter, getting free off a fake handoff and scoring twice in transition. Against Atlanta’s 2-3 zone, Herro drove to the middle and found Strus open at the top for a trifecta.  Facing man-to-man coverage, Oladipo broke down De’Andre Hunter with his dribble in the strongside corner for a banger.  

 

Heading into the fourth quarter, Miami’s bench was outdoing its rivals’ reserves 41-31 on the stat sheet.  Caleb Martin and Oladipo combined for 28 bench points through 36 minutes.  With three minutes left in the third quarter, Vic challenged three Hawks on the break and hit a reverse layup.  

 

In the final period, Oladipo stayed hot.  He hit a jumper from the left corner when Atlanta iced Herro’s roll to the rim, splashed another triple over Murray and Hunter on the wing, and then caught a fastbreak lob from Robinson to cap off a vintage night.  He came one-second shy of playing the entire fourth quarter.  The only players who got that credit for Miami were Adebayo, Butler and Martin.  

 

In the last stretch, the Hawks made 54.5% of its attempts. Murray hit two runners over Martin and a break layup against Herro. Bogdan Bogdanović boxed out Robinson for a tip-in.  Saddiq Bey caught Herro in a mismatch seven feet from the cup. And Young hit a 3-pointer and gashed Miami inside three times. 

 

But Atlanta went cold for a pivotal stretch late in the game.  With the Heat up five points and fewer than four minutes left, Hunter misfired an open triple behind a pindown on the right wing, and Murray air-balled a three-foot finger roll, horrifying his newly appointed instructor Quin Snyder on the sideline.

 

The Hawks had a chance to tie with 25 seconds left, but Martin stripped Young on a drive.  Butler got the ball and was sent to the free-throw line, where he made both.  The Heat would take two more trips to the line, knocking down three to close the match with a W, pushing Miami to four wins above .500 and two games behind the Brooklyn Nets for sixth place in the east.

 

At the postgame presser, Oladipo said he was trying to catch a lob all year and gave props to Robinson for the precise pass.  

 

On the topic of his efficiency, Oladipo said, “I’m just going to keep shooting.  I’m not really concerned about the past and what the years [have] been and the up and downs. I’m just going to hoop like I know I can… I’m just going to continue to make the most of it and be aggressive.”

If only Paul Revere could’ve warned Philadelphia that Jimmy Butler was coming. Word didn’t get out, and on Monday, the Miami Heat landed a devastating blow to Joel Embiid’s MVP chances.

On Saturday, Butler said he was tired of losing while facing reporters after Miami was overpowered in Charlotte. It was the club’s fourth consecutive defeat, triggering movement across sportsbook lines. That night, DraftKings lowered the odds of the Atlanta Hawks winning the southeast division from +360 to +240.

As has been the case all season, whenever the Heatles start getting serious, the squad takes multiple steps backward. Entering the match against Philadelphia, Miami was back at only three games over .500 (32-29). Over its poor four-game stretch, the Heat converted 29% of its attempts from 3-point range while failing to contain its perimeter.

To the horror of the Philadelphians, Miami was uncharacteristically shooting well from deep in the first half. Gabe Vincent splashed Miami’s first long-distance make off a dribble handoff by Butler on the left wing. JB hit the next one from the opposite wing as Embiid over-helped on Bam Adebayo in the low post, creating the opening. The following trifectas came from Butler’s offensive rebound, then finding Vincent at the top of the key, and again, Butler, attracting a second defender at the nail against the 2-3 zone, uncovering Kevin Love on the left side.

Through 24 minutes, Miami had forced 10 turnovers, three of them steals belonging to #22 as he terrorized Embiid. While Philly’s main man matched up with Cody Zeller at the free throw line, Butler was the spy in the low post, intercepting the pass to De’Anthony Melton. When Embiid fell in the post with the ball, JB slapped it from his grasp. Trying to pass out of a wall at the elbow, Embiid didn’t see Butler on the right side and threw a pick, resulting in a fastbreak slam.

At halftime, the Heat held a 58-50 lead with 14 assists to four turnovers. The reserve crew contributed 19 points in the period. Victor Oladipo was finishing at the rim and hitting outside jumpers. Zeller scored twice in Embiid’s face, and Max Strus and Caleb Martin each splashed a triple and kept the ball moving.

In the second half, the Heat struggled to score, logging 39.4% of attempts. Yet, the 76ers had no counters for Butler and Strus. Each had 10 points on a combined six out of 10 shots. JB dissected the drop coverage for two scores and made one corkscrew layup between PJ Tucker and Embiid. Strus hit a right-wing 3-pointer, courtesy of the dribble penetration provided by Tyler Herro, and canned another triple in the same spot over four arms. He also seized the baseline on a backdoor cut.

On the other end, Miami shut down James Harden, holding him to two of eight made baskets in the second half. He couldn’t dribble past Adebayo on two plays, getting forced to a well-contested elbow jumper and way off miss on the baseline. He also smoked a layup at the rim against #13 too.

The Heat did not have the same success guarding Tyrese Maxey. He torched Miami for 14 of his 23 points in the third quarter. He only had four at halftime but rattled off his next six out of eight. Maxey was first down the court in transition and getting into the lane with two feet in the half-court. In the fourth quarter, Miami slowed him down by closing out quickly to the perimeter when he received the pass, allowing one out of four buckets.

In the fourth, Miami was outscored by a point, but it held Philadelphia to 20.8% shooting in the frame. The Heat recorded four field goals down the stretch, and Butler finished the game with 23 points on 64% efficiency with 11 rebounds and nine dimes.

At the postgame presser, coach Erik Spoelstra said, “Things don’t always go your way in this league, but it’s about how you respond to those moments collectively when you have some disappointments…”

In the locker room, Butler wasn’t too concerned with how the win materialized or excited about beating down on former teammates, but he said, “We got to start stringing these [wins] together. We got them again in 48 hours, and we want to do the same thing.”

 

 

 

 

The fans and the Miami Heat, except for Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, have eight days off courtesy of the All-Star festivities. It’s the break the outfit needs badly. The team’s closing performance over the last two games was as pathetic as an Amy Schumer stand-up special.

Some key cogs have performed below standards in areas where they once excelled too. And the head instructor is stubborn- he’s keeping Jimmy Butler at a minutes cap in the fourth quarter when the team is running on empty as he watches from the bench. Through 71% of the season, the squad is five games over .500 and a half-game behind the New York Knicks for sixth place.

Brooklyn’s Mikal Bridges sent them on a brief vacation by piecing them up for 45 points on Wednesday. At the start of the fourth quarter, he had 28 on the scorecard. When Butler came in, Bridges wasn’t fazed, hitting two shots matched up with him and seven out of nine times against Miami in the period.

As expected, the Heat’s snipers were neutered by the Nets’ length. After missing its first four attempts from deep, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent splashed three. The combustion was short-lived, however. The Heatles shot 24% from 3-point range the rest of the way. Seven of the misses were open-enough looks; the rest were well contested by Brooklyn, beating the screeners to the closeout and staying home on matchups.

Adebayo played all of the fourth quarter and logged 14 points on 67% efficiency, but it wasn’t enough. When he switched from the middle to guard the top and corners, Brooklyn attacked from the opposite sides for access to the lane and a runway on the baseline.

It’s a shame Butler left Adebayo hanging in the fourth quarter. JB finished the frame in seven minutes without recording a field goal attempt, but he did make two free throws. When he checked in, the Heat was down by one possession. Within 59 seconds, Brooklyn’s lead was at nine.

Butler looked as disinterested as the United States is with the poor. If only everyone got the memo that he’d started his recess after halftime.

From behind the arc, the Nets were as deadly as the White Feather sniper, Carlos Hathcock. Even on solid closeouts, the hosts were undaunted and launched over the defense. Cam Johnson buried a triple in Butler’s eye two minutes into the game. Bridges canned one with Caleb Martin’s hand in his space and another over the much smaller Vincent running by in the right corner.

The differential from 3-point land was so vast, Brooklyn made 11 more than Miami in a match the visitors took six more field goal attempts, had five more rebounds and three fewer turnovers.

Following the game, coach Erik Spoelstra credited Brooklyn’s switching defenders on the perimeter as the tactic to limit attempts and efficiency, plus create over-dribbling.

“Throughout the course of the game, I thought there were windows that were open at the point of the pick against the switches,” Spo said. “But we just weren’t able to make the plays in order to keep them honest…”

 

Let’s cut right to the chase. I’m frustrated. You are frustrated. The Miami Heat’s activity – or lack thereof – over the last two seasons has been perplexing. I’ve been a passionate fan since 2004 (I’m 28 years old), and I cannot remember a time when the fanbase felt this defeated. And that’s saying something because I was around for the Stephane Lasme days. (Shoutout to him).

 

As taxing of a season as this has been, it’s not where most of the disappointment lies. Actually, it’s quite the contrary. The frustration mostly lies with the front offices’ unwillingness (or inability) to maximize this build.

 

Since Jimmy Butler was traded to Miami back in 2019, we’ve enjoyed two trips to the Conference Finals and fell one shot short of a second NBA Finals appearance last Spring. Championship pedigree was evident with this core. And success in the postseason gave this city a glimpse of what was possible with the correct additions.

 

After Butler’s shot rimmed out in Game 7 of the Conference Finals, it’s felt that this franchise has gone backward.

 

The only moves – offseason or free agency – completed in Miami have been the re-signing of Victor Oladipo and the re-signing and trade of Dewayne Dedmon. The latter was just sent to the San Antonio Spurs with a second-round pick in exchange for cash considerations and a box of fig newtons.

 

To make matters worse, we’ve had to stand by and watch other contending Eastern Conference teams make additions that move their needle. The Boston Celtics added Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, and Mike Muscala. The Philadelphia 76ers added James Harden, De’Anthony Melton, P.J. Tucker, and Jalen McDaniels. The New York Knicks (man I hate the Knicks) added Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart. The Milwaukee Bucks added Jae Crowder. You get the point.

 

This all culminated on Thursday at 3:01 PM ET. The trade deadline came and went. And just like that, Miami stood pat (pun very much intended).

 

So where do we go from here?

 

First, I’ll tell you where we’re not going to go. We’re not going to dwell on the past. This isn’t the Sixers franchise. I’m not going to sit here and revoke your right to disappointment because this roster has overachieved in two of the last three postseasons. I’m not going to type some overused “In Pat we trust” slogan and expect everyone to put on a happy face and accept the current circumstance.

 

On the same token, I’m not going to bash the front office either. As of the time of this writing (Friday afternoon), there are 27 games remaining. And this team deserves our full focus as they push for a top 5 seed.

 

Despite not acquiring another piece, here are a few notable things to watch for moving forward.

What Kind Of Spark Can Omer Yurtseven Provide?

 

Last season, Victor Oladipo made his return to the lineup shortly after the trade deadline. His presence gave a huge boost to Miami’s depth and ultimately paid large dividends during the postseason.

 

Can Yurtseven have the same impact?

 

Yurt hasn’t played a minute this season and underwent ankle surgery in November. When asked Thursday about the timeline to return to the court, Erik Spoelstra said, “I don’t have an answer, I just like the progress. Things in our center position are trending in a much better direction.”

 

Despite Spo not having a direct answer, by all accounts, his return to the lineup is drawing near. It was just last week that he was cleared for “high-impact work”.

 

The big question will be if/how he can coexist with Bam Adebayo. Looking at last season, the two big men only shared the court for a total of 34 possessions. It wasn’t pretty.

 

While a small sample, Miami was a minus 27.5 points per 100 possessions.

 

Interestingly enough, a quote from Yurtseven during the Heat’s media day is worth delving into. In explaining why he should play alongside Bam more, his response was this:

 

“I can put Bam in his more natural position… Which would also allow him to be more aggressive.”

 

Here's a snippet of our interview with Omer Yurtseven from today's media day on why he should play next to Bam Adebayo more.

"I can put Bam in his more natural position … which would also allow him to be more aggressive." pic.twitter.com/TxlMliY3EO

— Locked On Heat (@LockedOnHeat) September 26, 2022

 

 

Bam and aggressive. Those two words together will make every Heat fan perk up.

 

With Bam now a bonafide threat from midrange, opening him up to catch the ball outside the paint could unlock an entire brand of offense for Miami. Giving him room to attack his defender off the dribble will surely open things up along the perimeter.

 

Defensively, it could bring a whole new persona. If Yurt is down low manning the paint, Bam now has the freedom to stay up top and switch everything. Simply having a non-negative big on the court alongside Bam allows Miami to utilize Bam’s defensive versatility to their advantage.

 

At the very least, Yurtseven’s presence should bolster the Heat’s frontcourt depth. It was clear that Dedmon was just a walking talking negative every single time he stepped on the floor. Miami was getting obliterated in non Bam minutes as a result. The hope here is that Yurt can step in and be the bridge down low that keeps Miami afloat when Bam is on the bench.

 

Bam was asked earlier this season what it’s like playing alongside some of his teammates, and he specifically brought up playing with Yurt:

“But Big 77 [Yurtseven], I’ve got to be aware of where I’m at, just to keep the spacing and keep us in sync, to where if he’s spacing, I’m in the paint. Or if he’s in the dunker’s [spot], I’m in the corner.”

 

It remains to be seen how often Spoeltra will employ the two at the same time – especially with Yurt getting back into the swing of things. But simply having him available is a huge positive for Miami’s offensive and defensive versatility.

 

How Can Nikola Jovic Contribute This Season?

 

Miami’s only acquisition this season has been Nikola Jovic. While only 19 years old, he’s shown flashes of high-level play during Summer League and the preseason. He’s currently out with a back injury but should be re-evaluated any day.

 

The first question here is *can* Jovic be of value this season? After all, he’s young and his growing pains were on full display during the 15 games in which he saw the court.

 

One way I would like to see Miami utilize him when healthy is in a PnR scenario with Bam. Jovic is 6-foot-10 but has mostly guard skills. With him on the ball and Bam screening, it could create some mismatches for opposing defenses. The Denver Nuggets do a great job at this with Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon. The 4 screening for the 5 or vice versa is something that not a lot of teams like to deal with. And Jovic has a better jump shot than Gordon.

 

If Bam screens and defenses switch, Jovic can use his ball handling and speed to attack a bigger, slower defender. It also puts a smaller defender on Bam. If defenses play drop, Jovic has shown he is comfortable enough to take the shot. And if defenses fight through, Jovic could force a 2-on-1.

 

If the latter happens, Jovic has already proved himself to be a talented and willing passer. Especially on lobs. Just check out some of these passes from the preseason:

 

Nikola Jović against Memphis last night:

13 pts
8 rebs
3 blks

The kid has handles, a jumper, good passing ability and can make his presence felt in the paint on both sides of the floor pic.twitter.com/z98fVQYlEO

— Playbook Sports (@PlaybookSN) October 8, 2022

 

 

Sign me up for the high post playmaking of Nikola Jovic.

Flex into a high post split for a pair, just a high post split for the third. Either way, good touch and placement from the young fella. pic.twitter.com/4HHnFZctsG

— Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) October 8, 2022

 

 

There will be growing pains. I’m not expecting Jovic to heal and become prime Kevin Durant overnight. But his playmaking skills and length could create some mismatches for opposing defenses.

 

Duncan Robinson’s Confidence Needs Rebuilding

 

In his heyday, Robinson was one of the deadliest sharpshooters in the league. Unfortunately, that heyday lasted only a season. Since then, it’s been a grind. Teams have caught on and when he’s not making threes, his shortcomings on defense make him a liability on the floor. As a result, his role has diminished and his confidence has noticeably declined.

 

With that said, Miami needs to be shining the proverbial batman symbol in the sky. Except instead of batman’s logo it looks like Sheen from Jimmy Neutron. Only real ones will get it.

 

Miami was the best three-point shooting team last season. They are 27th at the time of this writing. By all accounts, Robinson is needed now more than ever.

 

His game has always seemed mental and Ethan Skolnick brought up a good point on Thursday’s show. Duncan actually played better last season after the trade deadline. It’s been no secret that he’s been mentioned in every trade rumor for the past two seasons and that has to mess with you – simply on a human level.

 

With the trade deadline behind us and Robinson on the roster at least until the offseason, could that alleviate some pressure when he’s healthy? Could it also take some of the 3pt weight off of Max Strus’s shoulders? Possibly.

 

At the very least, having a career 40% 3pt shooter on high volume available has to be a good thing for the Heat simply by the law of averages, right?

 

Gabe Vincent Should Start Regardless Of Kyle Lowry’s Health

 

This has been debated ad nauseum for much of the last month, but the answer is quite simple. Miami’s starting core is better with Vincent than with Lowry. With Vincent, they are putting up 132.5 points per 100 possessions. Good enough for the 90th percentile. With Lowry, that number dips all the way down to 111.0 points per 100 possessions. That’s the 33rd percentile for those wondering.

 

Lowry’s presence also affects Tyler Herro. His numbers and efficiency from three improve with Lowry off the court. My theory is that they each feel more comfortable with the ball in their hands. After Herro was inserted into the starting lineup this season, there were one too many ball handlers on the floor. With Vincent in over Lowry, this frees up Herro to play make while also letting Vincent function off the ball – a role he plays well.

 

But the main reason why Vincent needs to start is that the Heat need to know what they have. This offseason brings with it a very interesting dilemma for the front office. With Strus and Vincent up for extensions, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford both. Giving Vincent ample time with this starting unit can help them when it comes time to decide their route.

 

Do Any Buyout Options Move The Needle This Season?

 

This is tough to say at the time of this writing, as there will surely be more names bought out over the next two weeks. But looking at the current slate of guys, there are a few options who could help the Heat.

 

Russell Westbrook

 

My mom could have told you that Westbrook wasn’t a good fit in Los Angeles. If Miami can get him at a cheap number, he could offer some much-needed juice to Miami’s offense. The turnovers will be there, but the rim pressure he provides could open things up.

 

Terrance Ross

 

Ross is my favorite buyout candidate for Miami should he become available. Outside of the fact that he’s been a #RandomHeatKiller more often than not, his offensive game is what Miami needs. He’s only a few years removed from putting up 15.6 points and two threes a game in less than 30 minutes. I would expect him to provide a “Joe Johnson-esque” scoring boost to Miami, which could come up big during postseason dry spells.

 

Danny Green

 

This is a risk, given he’s only played three games this season. But the reward could be huge. Green has championship DNA. He can defend and knock down threes at a 40% clip. Those are things Strus and Robinson cannot do simultaneously. It’s likely that Green prefers a squad with better title odds, but he’s an intriguing target.

 

Ultimately, the Heat is in this pickle due to past mistakes. Bloated contracts and an over-reliance on developing undrafted players with low ceilings will catch up to you sooner than later. Hindsight is 2020. It’s easy to clown moves now when you know the outcome.

 

The reality is this:

 

Jimmy Butler will be 34 years old before next season. It feels like Miami’s window to win a ring with him is closing fast. It’s clear that this team cannot keep relying on his Herculean efforts every postseason. It’s unsustainable.

 

Miami finds itself at a fork in the road this offseason. The direction they go will determine the future of this build. If Miami finds itself watching from home in May, I wouldn’t be surprised to see something drastic take place. After all, it’s becoming clearer and clearer that the future of this team belongs to Bam.

*****
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The Heat’s loss on Saturday gives the team its first set of consecutive defeats since December.  Miami has performed a 180 since its putrid start to the season, but some areas still need adjusting if the fourth or fifth seed is to be captured.

There are 28 games left on the team’s calendar. They’d need to finish 24-4 to earn the exact win total as last season. Getting there isn’t happening, and the slate for the eight remaining games in February is brutal. There are nine days off courtesy of the All-Star break that should give this outfit the rest it craves.

But if the Heat wants to avoid a first-round exit or, worse, a play-in spot, it will need at least a few solid win streaks until mid-April. Miami must outdo itself in the last third of the season to avoid a disaster scenario, which would be, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro playing their best minutes of Heat basketball ever and the team folding early.

Eight games is a minuscule sample size. Yet, in that stretch, Miami has to host the reigning back-to-back MVP and the first-seeded Nuggets on Feb. 13. The following four are on the road. First in Brooklyn. The pendulum could swing either way since Kyrie Irving is holding the team hostage, and it’s unclear if the Nets will move the malcontent before the trade deadline.

Then Miami visits the Bucks and former two-time MVP and champ Giannis Antetokounmpo. He just waxed the Heat for 35 points on 68% efficiency on Saturday. The next two are in Charlotte and Philadelphia.

The Hornets stung the Heat at home on Jan. 29. The opportunity for revenge is there, but if the Heat concedes the point of attack again, the backline defenders can’t save them.

The 76ers are not a good matchup either because it has too many weapons to break Miami’s zone coverage.

An issue that’s bedeviled the Heat all year long is its lamentable deep shooting. Max Strus was canning 41% of his triples last season. This campaign, he’s down to 34.3%.

Duncan Robinson, who has been out since Jan. 4 following finger surgery, hit 33% of his 3-point tries through 28 games. His minutes have dwindled to 17.9 a night.

Kyle Lowry is also down to 33% from long-range, and those are 63.2% of his total attempts.

With shooters playing below standards, it gives Miami’s opponents the liberty to sag off or gamble more often. If they were on target, the other team wouldn’t be able to double Jimmy Butler in the mid-post to get the ball out of his hands.

The other problem that needs to get fixed immediately is Butler’s fourth-quarter minutes management. Coach Erik Spoelstra is trying to buy JB as much rest as possible ahead of the playoffs. On many nights, the Heat can’t afford it. In losses, he’s averaging 7.7 minutes in the final period.

In defeats, Butler is logging over 10 minutes in the third frame. It makes sense. On many occasions, the Heat stumbled coming out of the intermission and were outscored in 29 third quarters. Keeping the best player on the floor is necessary to climb out of the turd period. But sometimes, the inescapable truth is that Butler will have to play at least 40 minutes for Miami to win against some rivals.

Until Miami’s sharpshooters find their touch, the group is dry on other options. Giving Butler an extra workload is a double-edged blade, however. The Heat have found themselves in 27 games decided by five points or fewer. The record in those games is 16-11.

Butler turned 33 on Sept. 14. It’s not fair to him that at his age that more is needed. But since he’s got $146 million guaranteed over the next three seasons, there isn’t a more suitable candidate for sacrificing his body.

In Miami’s last two games, losses in New York and Milwaukee, Butler combined for 13.8 fourth-quarter minutes and didn’t take a free throw in that span. When he checked in for the last time at Madison Square Garden, the Heat was down 10 points with seven minutes and change left. On Saturday, when Butler came in for Strus, the squad was down six with over six minutes left. Miami had converted only 36% of its attempts before Butler was inserted in Milwaukee.

He is the closer and best playmaker on the team. Butler has the highest assist percentage at 23.6%. This would put him in the 96th percentile for his position, per Cleaning the Glass. Even above the NBA’s second-leading paint scorer, Bam Adebayo, Butler is still the Heat’s best option to get to the line or draw a double team and hit the open man.

It’s not true that regular-season games don’t matter. If a group doesn’t lock up home court and stay above .500 on the road, it shouldn’t be taken seriously. Without #22, Miami’s record is 8-7, but with him in the lineup, it has lost 18 games.

One of the reasons the Heat had a deep playoff run last season run is because it was the east’s first seed. Round one was against the Atlanta Hawks, a team with more holes than a sponge. In the conference semifinals, the matchup was the 76ers without Embiid for the first two games. The Heatles were then taken out in round three by the Celtics, a group two wins away from a title.

What good will all this rest do if Miami is instantly faced with a bad matchup on the road after the regular season?