Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Nets Better Off Keeping Kevin Durant

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To some, Kevin Durant looks like an NBA labor hero for asking to skip town with four years and $198 million remaining on his deal.  Others see him as the dude trying to take the easy way out. 

 

As for his trade request, it would defy logic for the Brooklyn Nets to move Durant.  He’s perhaps the league’s most lethal scorer because of his arsenal and the mismatches a 6’11 frame creates. Yet, for some inexplicable reason, the organization is bending over backward, acquiescing to KD’s wishes and looking for a negotiating partner. 

 

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Durant doesn’t have any leverage.  Willingly putting him on the market is a dereliction of duty by the front office.  They have not realized that whatever could be sent back for him won’t be as impactful as the man who already wears the uniform.  Taking on assets for the future is risky as well.  There is no guarantee the players picked will hit.  

 

Keeping Durant ensures the team is always in the mix, competing or at least the headlines.  How many opportunities will any franchise get to have a guy like KD signed long-term?  He’s a made man who needs to be convinced the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.  

 

 Offensively, the Slim Reaper has no weaknesses and is one of the rare players in the NBA who would fit well next to any playstyle.  When a man as gifted as he has already committed to a team like that, the plan should be trying to fix whatever the differences between the two camps are.     

 

The team has Kyrie Irving riding shotgun for at least one more year.  The Nets should have asked Durant the moment he gave notice why he can’t make it work for $198 million?  Why can’t he commit to the team as they did to him while he spent an entire year recovering from an Achilles tear?  They believed enough in him to devote themselves for four years when no one knew what version of the Easy Money Sniper was coming back.  But here we are. The ink on Durant’s extension hasn’t dried, and his interests are elsewhere. 

 

Helping the team win 1/3 playoff rounds he’s participated in and only playing in 106 games as a Net in three seasons shouldn’t buy him the cache to make such an asinine favor.    

 

Ben Simmons still has not made his debut for Brooklyn.  His size, versatility, and explosive lateral quickness make him one of the NBA’s premier defenders.  He can switch on opponents in zone or man coverage, which will fix some of the Nets’ weak spots while also benefiting the offense by adding transition opportunities.  

 

There are few athletes in the NBA like Simmons.  In fact, Durant hasn’t played with a specimen like him since he was Russell Westbrook’s teammate in Oklahoma City from 2008-2016.  Simmons is a threat whenever he puts his head down and attacks the basket.  His role as a playmaker while sharing the floor with Irving would leave #11 in single coverage while playing off-ball.  Kyrie wouldn’t have to work as hard getting open to avoid traps and doubles.  

 

Running pick ‘n’ roll with Simmons as the screener for Durant or Irving could be a nightmare for opponents to guard.  The man setting the pick always gets open after the player he pinned shakes loose.  If Simmons gets the ball back on the roll, he can attack if the lane is clear, or if he catches a pair of help defenders, he could pass out to an open teammate on the baseline or perimeter.  In this play, the Nets could use Ben at center surrounded by a few sharpshooters like Joe Harris, Irving, and Durant to spread out defenders.

 

This team has never gotten close to maximizing its full potential.  Injuries were a factor but Irving selfishly avoiding taking the COVID vaccine negatively affected how the team performed as well.  Perhaps if he were available for more than 29 regular season games, the Nets would have been a higher seed than seventh and likely seen a different opponent in round one.  

 

Going forward, per Executive Order 62, courtesy of New York City mayor Eric Adams’ signature on March 24, Irving’s vaccination status won’t prevent him from contributing next season as it did in 2021/2022.

 

Management shouldn’t give in to Durant’s desires.  It’s perfectly feasible that Brooklyn’s star threesome can make things interesting next season.   Not giving Durant, Irving, and Simmons the chance to take the floor together would be a colossal failure.

 

If the Nets capitulate, it will prove they are an unserious organization.  

 

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Does running the ball set up the pass?

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Running the ball to set up the pass is an age-old adage where your father and grandfather told you how to play football, but does running the ball really set up the pass?

Traditionally, when an offense executes a successful run for a significant chunk of yardage, an opposing defense will attempt to compensate by bringing additional defenders into the “run box.” The more bodies in the way of the run, the more likely it is for the run to be held short.

However, if more defenders are in the box, that means there are fewer players to defend passes away from the box, so the passing game has greater opportunity to get the ball further down the field.

The NFL evolves every decade moving onward towards something unique but building on basic concepts. We’ve witnessed the fall of the I-form power football in the ‘70’s, to rise of the West Coast offense in the ‘80’s, Run ‘N Shoot and K-Gun in the ‘90’s, Spread and Shotgun offenses in the early 2000’s to the RPO revolution in the 2020’s.

Ultimately, this has come as a result of the NFL’s purposeful rule changes and schematic breakthroughs that have led to its desired impact: more touchdowns. In turn this led to running the ball much less.

EPA on running the ball to set up the pass

A study done by Sean Clements, who is now a data analyst for the Baltimore Ravens, found that establishing the run early in NFL games does not open the passing game later in games.

Through a boxplot Clements made, it’s found that there is little correlation between running the ball early and at a high volume increases the yardage obtained on passing plays. The next emphasis is through EPA, expected points added. Basically, it measures the expected points of a play.

In a graph made by Ben Baldwin, the number of expected points decreases as the number of rushing attempts increases. Contrary to the belief running the ball will help to set up the pass and score.

If that were the case, then we would expect to see higher EPA as the number of rushing attempts increases.

How the modern era has discontinued running the ball to set up the pass

From 2015-2020 passing on first down has averaged a 7.6 YPA, yards per attempt, while running the ball gained 4.3 YPA.

Per sharp football stats, 30.4% of pass attempts on first down have ended up moving the chains. However, only 12.8% of running plays have picked up another first down. In 2020, NFL teams ran the ball on 50.3% of their first-down plays in 2020 and passed the ball on only 49.7%.

In 2021, NFL offenses averaged 7.4 YPA passing on first down compared to 4.2 YPA rushing.

Even the most run-heavy teams like the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans had higher YPA’s on first down compared to running the ball. San Francisco had an 8.9 YPA passing and 4.4 YPA rushing. Tennessee had 7.2 YPA passing and 4.2 YPA rushing.

Yet, 20 of 32 NFL teams, run the ball on first down gaining minimal yards compared to easily moving the chains to score. So what gives?

How two-high coverages has stopped running the ball to set up the pass

As a result of the modern NFL, many offenses are trigger-happy and defenses have had to respond with swift actions.

Defenses have adapted as time has passed. This time to coverages that include a large base of two-high safety shells.  Two-high coverage means both the strong safety and free safety defend the deep end of the field, with each responsible for a section that runs to each boundary.

Thus leaving the middle of the field open, the main purpose of two-high is to prevent explosive plays in the deep third of the field and not allow big plays.

Some NFL offenses and high-profile quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes have struggled against two-high coverage early on because they struggled to take what the defense gives them.

In 2018, the highest amount of two-high looks faced by any quarterback in the league was 42%. Eight weeks into the 2021 NFL season, only five teams faced two-high safeties less than 40%.

The key to beating two-high coverage? Running the ball. Two-high is not the perfect scheme to use a majority of the time as yards can be gained in the intermediate passing game and the running game.

Due to the nature of defensive backs lined up well outside the box, offenses often have a light defensive body count in the box to go against. This opens up numerous lanes for running backs.

How passing the ball has set up the run

Running the ball does keep the defense honest and it can be noted on second and third down. YPA on rush attempts increases to 4.4 on second down and 4.5 on third down. The success rate of it gaining five or more yards is 50% on second down and jumps to 53% on third down.

Passing on second down yields a 6.9 YPA with a 47% success rate, on third down passing results in 7.2 YPA with a 37% success rate. First down has become the most successful passing down to move the chains and get drives started for offenses with a 54% success rate.

The most successful offenses in the NFL have potent passing attacks and have the most success by passing the ball on first down and converting it five-plus yards or past the sticks.

First Down situation Pass: Run Ratios

Buffalo, San Francisco, Green Bay, Cincinnati, and the Los Angeles Rams all have 8 or more yards per attempt passing coupled with being over a 54% success rate. Respectively, each team’s YPA on running the ball increases on 2nd and 3rd downs.

Second and Third down Pass: Run ratios

As the NFL continues its passing revolution, gone are the days of running the ball to set up the pass. With the league running two-high shells almost 50% of the time, the NFL offense has adjusted to throwing the ball more on early downs to gain more yards. Thus, able to run the ball effectively when needed to be.  

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Hussam Patel***

 

Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel

 
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Why Chase Edmonds will have the biggest impact in the Miami Dolphins running back room

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The Miami Dolphins signed Chase Edmonds in free agency filling a pressing need at running back. Chase Edmonds was the first signee for Mike McDaniel, and for a good reason.

Chase Edmonds fit in Miami

With Mike McDaniel as the play-caller in Miami, his offensive scheme is centered around the outside zone running game. Edmonds, while in Arizona did indeed play with zone blocking but in an inside zone scheme.

“The flow of the backers is different because in inside zone, it’s more slow to fast, where I can pitter-patter my steps,” Edmonds said. “Outside zone here, it’s kind of like you’re riding a wave. Once you hit that wave, you’ve got to hit it and go. I’m getting used to that, getting my feet under me. I’m taking pride in that journey, that challenge of fine-tuning it.”

Chase Edmonds on the outside zone scheme

While all zone blocking concepts are the same, the way the running back finds gaps are not. Chase Edmonds does bring that experience into Miami, especially to help quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Running the Ball

Arizona routinely ran bubble screen RPO’s where it’s an inside zone option.

The most intriguing part of this play is the design itself, the threat of the quarterback keep. Tight end Zach Ertz executes an H-back arc block on this play. Ertz motioning from right-to-left leaves the EDGE untouched and climbs second level.

If the EDGE rusher were to crash on Chase Edmonds, Kyler Murray can keep the ball and run around the edge with Ertz blocking for him. Furthermore, if the linebacker was also focused on Edmonds, Murray could throw the ball to Zach Ertz.

With Chase Edmonds, the Miami Dolphins can utilize this same concept on different designs. After all, the did something similar like it last year.

Chase Edmonds intangibles is exactly what the Miami Dolphins need out of their running back room this year.

In a zone running scheme, running backs should have fast feet to move quickly around blocks, vision to see gaps open up before a block is made and short area burst after running through the hole.

Edmonds brings all of that to Miami, here’s a play that demonstrates his skills.

Edmonds finds the crease, using quick footwork behind the offensive line to get into the hole and gains 11 yards. He swiftly reads and reacts to the blocks in front of him

Given his experience and skillset, Edmonds is a near-ideal fit for the rushing offense McDaniel implements.

Catching the ball

Chase Edmonds is capable in the passing game, and a serviceable blocker.

With 96 catches for 713 yards the last two seasons, and no sacks allowed on 132 pass blocking snaps the last three years, Edmonds has demonstrated the ability to play on all three downs.

In Arizona, Edmonds was used in the receiving game as a slot receiver and used effectively in the screen game. As a result of Edmonds skillset, routinely, Arizona utilized his quickness against reacting linebackers in short areas of the field.

Mike McDaniel, as the play caller in San Francisco produced three top 10 run-after-catch players in 2021, this bodes well for Chase Edmonds in Miami.

With more defenses playing two-high coverage at an alarming rate, it’s important that teams have pass-catchers that can make defenders miss underneath and gain yards after the catch. Last year, Edmonds averaged 7.9 yards after the catch and used as an underneath option.

Chase Edmonds’ Efficiency and EPA

There is another component to the Edmonds news that makes sense from Miami’s perspective.

Efficiency. The emphasis is through EPA, expected points added. Basically, it measures the expected points of a play.

The average rushing EPA per play last season? A negative number.

However, contextualizing Edmonds rushes, He is one of those rare running backs who was efficient last season.

According to charting data from Sports Info Solutions, Edmonds had an EPA per rushing attempt of 0.08. That placed him fifth overall among ball-carriers with 100 or more rushing attempts last season.

Head Coach, Mike McDaniel values this extremely in his running back room. It’s something he speaks to at lengths in media pressers and believes in his scheme

The value of the running back position — what value do you put on anywhere from a third to a half of the plays on a given offensive season? You got to realize running backs, collectively… you have about 300 to 400 some touches, so it’s incredibly valuable, but there is a more diverse way of finding them. From a historical perspective, there is rookies, second-year players, mid-to-late-round [draftees] that have more success at that position than some others. But it’s…of paramount importance. We just have a concrete skill set that we found that can really flourish in a zone-blocking system.

Mike McDaniel on running back value

In Chase Edmonds, McDaniel now has that zone-blocking fit, as well as one of the league’s more efficient backs from a season ago to help bolster the Miami Dolphins rushing attack.

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Hussam Patel***

 

Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel

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Tua Tagovailoa and Play-action passing

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Tua Tagovailoa has become a hot topic this off-season from pundits deciding if this would be his make-or-break year. Additionally, a recent article from PFT’s Mike Florio detailed that free agent acquisition Tyreek Hill had low expectations for Tua.

The third-year Dolphins quarterback has received the most criticism from the media, fans and throughout last season, even players. One man is here to change that narrative – new head coach Mike McDaniel.

How Mike McDaniel will help Tua Tagovailoa

The big thing is what new head coach Mike McDaniel wants to do. McDaniel comes from the Shanahan coaching tree, the ever glorious wide-zone, bootleg, play-action world with Kyle Shanahan that has made Jimmy Garrapolo, Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins successful in the NFL.

Mike McDaniel with Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay utilized 12 personnel mainly in their time with the now Washington Commanders. McVay now utilizes a spread concept using 11 personnel to maximize his players skill sets. Kyle Shanahan uses 21 personnel to maximize his offensive players skillset and utilizes the pistol formation.

McDaniel is able to use a combination of the two but put his spin on how he can maximize his players skill set; mainly, Tua Tagovailoa.

The easiest way to explain the offense McDaniel has helped culture through the past couple of years is to break it down into two parts. It’s a wide zone run scheme paired with a west coast offense passing scheme.

In terms of the west coast passing scheme, it involves a lot of play action passes that can be deadly with a good running game. It is comprised of a lot of slants and crossing routes.

This is a perfect offense for Tua Tagovailoa. It truly does maximize everything he does well, while limiting the things he does bad. Tua will be asked to make quick reads, and throw the ball primarily to the middle of the field.

Slants, crossing routes, screen passes, and dig routes are gonna be the bread and butter of this offense’s passing plays, and Tagovailoa excels at those routes

Play-action passing

This off-season the hottest name is Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, who understands the the vast superiority of the play-action pass.

Simply put, play action is the easiest way to scheme quarterbacks more time and create big plays downfield.

At the heart of it all is the outside zone run, a very popular run concept in the NFL today. Not only is it effective, the play action off outside zone affords the quarterback more time than a normal dropback when passing.

The biggest question heading into the 2022 NFL season is if Miami’s new offensive line can block decently for Tua. Play-action passing provides Tua more time to maneuver the pocket and throw the ball down the field.

More and more teams are beginning to buy in to this line of thinking, for instance, with the play action rate in the NFL in 2018 reaching 24%. Expect the Dolphins to be one of them.

Per PFF, Tua Tagovailoa has a 80.3 grade on play-action passes and the offense as a whole has a 82.3 grade. In other words, when there’s a successful fake, he usually makes magic happen.

Flood Concept

A staple of the 49ers offense McDaniel is from is using the fullback or tight ends to condense across the formation, kick out in a split zone concept that allows for cutbacks, and take advantage of overflowing defenses.

This play action flood concept aims to put the flat and deep third defender in conflict

With the 49ers run game’s reputation and established tendencies, this leaves the window open for play action off of it.

This play action flood concept aims to put the flat and deep third defender in conflict. If #33 stays deep under the corner by Dwelley, QB can hit the 10 yard dig route to Emmanuel Sanders or dump it down to Juszczyk in the flats. If #33 comes up, QB can throw one over his head and in front of the FS occupied by the skinny post ran by Deebo Samuel.

The beauty of play-action is that it can create simple reads and make them even easier.

Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan did an amazing job of giving Garoppolo easy reads and setting him up for success by scheming guys open and allowing for easy completions.

Boot-action and roll-outs in play action passing

Bootlegs are nothing new. Yet the rebirth of the outside-zone-then-boot idea has led to one specific change: the boot-action is no longer a specific down-and-distance call.

It’s no longer about moving the chains on third down, or bluffing on early down to steal ten yards. The boot-action and roll-out has become the go-to way for the league’s most prominent offenses to hit explosive plays.

The NFL is a league of explosives. Hit as many as you can; stop as many as you can. That’s it. In the passing era, that’s the entire ball game.

I believe this may be the key to unlocking an explosive Miami Dolphins offense.

How it works

Bootleg passes have several advantages, but one major disadvantage: they only attack one side of the field.

All play-action bootlegs are built around the same principals and are designed to achieve the same goals. These plays use misdirection to confuse defenders.

In other words, they look like running plays, slowing the pass rush and drawing linebackers close to the line of scrimmage to open passing lanes.

The run action also slows the pass rush, and the movement of the quarterback forces defensive linemen to change their pass-rush angle.

Finally, play-action bootlegs usually move one side of the field with receivers while putting the quarterback in position to execute short, easy throws.

The use of the boot has steadily trickled up across the league. The quarterback, offensive line, and running back are set up like it’s outside zone. Everyone kicks one way. It looks like outside-zone.

However, only the quarterback keeps the ball, rolls to the outside, away from the pass-rush, and then surveys the landscape.

Traditional boot-action concepts are built like any old “flood” concept: there’s a deep route, an intermediate route, and a short route.

In the modern game, with almost all just about quarterbacks mobile enough to be a perimeter threat, the quarterback is his own option. If nothing is open, he can run the ball himself.

Usually that quarterback rolls, opens up his hips and fires to a receiver swooping across the field. The defense bites one way, the ball is thrown the other way.

How Mike McDaniel can utilize Boot-action and Play-action passes to help Tua

By many, Tua Tagovailoa is seen as a one-read quarterback who is heavily reliant on RPO’s.

While it might be true that the Dolphins led the league in RPO passes down the field, many forget about Tua’s play-action game. Per Pro-Football reference, Tua Tagovailoa had the 11th highest play-action pass attempts (113). 

Play-action passing with Jimmy Garrapolo

Assuming RPOs are considered play-action, the San Francisco 49ers had a 31% play-action usage in their pass attempts, with Jimmy Garoppolo accounting for 147 passes on 441 pass attempts.

Most of the 49er’s play-action passes in 2021 came from under shotgun compared to the usual Shanahan system. The quarterback under center, him turning and handing off or throwing a play-action pass or bootleg.

The play-action pass from under center in particular was the staple of the Shanahan offense.

Shanahans usual way is not the best play-action system for Tua, neither for Jimmy Garropolo.

2021 became the year where, with McDaniel’s help, Shanahan changed his philosophy. From Week 8 onward, the 49ers were exclusively in shotgun instead of under center.

Per Sharp Football stats, the 49ers were in shotgun on 67% of all passes in 2021, coming in at 13th overall of all NFL teams, an increase from 20th in 2020. When asked about the change from under center to shotgun, here’s what McDaniel had to say:

“Well, Jimmy’s a lot more decisive in the gun. He likes to see it while he’s delivering tight window throws… minimizing pass exclusive situations, which on first and second down, you can do if you have the threat of (run out of gun). And we’ve just kind of evolved. Kyle in 2019, really started noticing that and put pressure on us to evolve. And every week you figure out different ways to do some of the same things, maybe a couple of wrinkles.” Mike McDaniel

Jimmy Garropolo’s efficiency and decisiveness went up towards the middle weeks of the NFL season, a huge part in driving San Francisco to the playoffs.

This is not something new to Mike McDaniel. As an offensive assistant with Washington, McDaniel and Shanahan took the league by storm by utilizing read-option plays to capitalize RGIII’s effectiveness in the run game.

Play action passing with Tua Tagovailoa

Similar to Jimmy Garropolo is Tua Tagovailoa. We’ve seen how decisive Tua can be in no-huddle, up-tempo, shotgun based offense. It’s one of his biggest strengths.

In the play seen above, the Dolphins are in a condensed 11 Personnel formation with Isaiah Ford motioning to the right side of the field.

Jaylen Waddle runs a “go” route and looks to be Tua’s first read. Tua identifies the bracket coverage on Waddle and shifts towards Devante Parker, his second read.

Tua moves LB Rashaan Evans with his eyes and holds him towards Waddle. This creates an opening to fire a pass down the middle to Devante Parker on a post route.

This is the type of play-action sequence Tua is successful at.

New Play-action sequences for Tua Tagovailoa

One of the most used play-calls used by the San Francisco 49ers under Mike McDaniel was the “DRIFT” concept.

It is a quick-hitting play that hits in the zone vacated by linebackers flowing toward the run action. 

 

The run fake draws up the linebackers and opens the zone behind them for the quarterback. This most basic of play-action of concepts opens some of the biggest throwing lanes in any offense I do expect this “DRIFT” concept to be utilized for the Dolphins offense in 2022, especially for Tua Tagovailoa.

How the RPO gives a boost to play-action passing

Per PFF, the Dolphins had 63 downfield RPO’s thrown beyond three yards, which was the highest figure since 2016. These downfield RPO’s generally enhance a teams play efficiency in the run game, giving a boost to play-action passing. In addition, the 2021 Dolphins RPO system was generally a “one-read” system as plays were meant for one person.
 
 
This will change as McDaniel brings a different philosophy in terms of RPO’s and improvements along the offensive line. It all starts with a concept called “WANDA”. 
 
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The biggest difference is that if the football is not given to the running backs as the quarterbacks first read, the running back himself can become another outlet instead of pass blocking.
 
By providing another read to the quarterback, the running back runs a “wheel” concept giving another downfield passing threat if the blocking is solid. The threat of the pass will open up running lanes for running backs in RPO’s and Tua in play-action passing concepts.
 
Fortunately, Miami signed running backs in Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds who have ample experience in this type of offense.

Will these play-action passing concepts work?

“One thing I know about you is you have the ambition to be great. My job is to coach you to get all that greatness out of you”.
 
These words were uttered by Mike McDaniel in his first phone call to Tua Tagovailoa. McDaniel has success with quarterbacks with similar skill-sets like Tua, however the young man must put in the work to silence his critics and improve.
“What I’ve seen is a skill set that I’m familiar with, that’s very successful in this offense, you’re seeing a very accurate passer that receivers love to catch footballs from — tight spirals and accurate throws, which are huge for run after the catch and YAC yardage. What that means for an offense is if you have people who can run after the catch, that’s an outstanding skill set for him. Mike McDaniel on Tua Tagovailoa
It’s time for Mike McDaniel to tap into Tua’s skillsets and Tua to put in the work to make the Miami Dolphins offense successful in 2022.
 

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Hussam Patel***

 

  Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel  
 
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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Dallas Can’t Lose Jalen Brunson

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The Dallas Mavericks can’t let Luka Dončić’s top gun, Jalen Brunson, walk in free agency.  He was a fundamental cog in the team’s success- the most they’ve had in over a decade.  The outfit finally broke through in the 2022 postseason, winning a pair of rounds and distinguishing themselves as a group to be respected.  If Mark Cuban’s team wishes to build on what they have, he will likely need to overpay Brunson.

 

Dallas’ coveted free agent is a shifty combo guard approaching his apex.  He earned some stripes torching the Utah Jazz in the first round.  In that span, he averaged 27.8 points on over 48% shooting while spacing the floor and blowing past perimeter defenders for strong drives to the rim that often attracted help.  

 

In the open court, challengers weren’t fast enough to stay above his hip.  When opponents would go under a teammates screen, Brunson would bury triples on either wing.  Getting iced on pick ‘n’ roll, he still eluded two defenders by attacking the shot blocker for a finish at the cup.  

 

Brunson’s importance to the rotation cannot be understated. Dallas’ most used five-man lineup in the playoffs consisted of Reggie Bullock, Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith, Brunson and Dončić, logging 142 minutes in 15 games.  That same group was also the most utilized in the regular season, totaling 367 minutes in 40 games.   

 

Losing the team’s secondary playmaker and scorer would be too devastating a blow to recover from immediately.  Dončić would have more responsibilities as the primary ball handler and could be at risk of having dead legs in April from the added workload. 

 

Brunson, as the decision-maker with Dončić on the court, lets #77 get free in single coverage moving around the perimeter. It also allows Dončić to conserve energy because he’s not catching the same schemes as he does with the ball after crossing halfcourt.

 

Chemistry built through continuity is vital for a team.  A group must learn how to win together, but they also need to master overcoming the sting of defeat as a unit.  The on-court trust the Mavericks have developed over time paid dividends in the squad’s first season under Jason Kidd as head coach. Eight players returned from the previous campaign, but the team changed its guarding philosophy, and the group finished the year as the seventh-rated defense through 82 games and ninth-best in the playoffs. In 2020/2021, Dallas was 21st in the category for the regular season and 10th in the first round with Rick Carlisle as their instructor.   

 

The Mavericks were one of the three last teams standing. They are likely a few modifications away from being good enough to win a title.  Perhaps their offense is more potent next season with Tim Hardaway Jr. reintegrated into the lineup to space the floor for cuts by Brunson and Dončić.  Maybe they will orchestrate an essential trade for an effective role player by the February trade deadline.  But it won’t mean anything if they don’t show Brunson the money.

 

The season may have been one small step for Dončić, but it was a giant leap for the Mavs.

 

*****

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Miami Heat 2022 Draft Board, with Historical Comparisons

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With Thursday’s NBA Draft finally here, I’ve put together a list of 25 players for my Miami Heat “Big Board”.  With help from Brady Hawk and Greg Sylvander sharing information about who Miami has worked out, I included those players in addition to prospects I felt were fits for the Heat’s system. The Heat are among many teams who may choose to move out of the late 1st round, so I included prospects who would be good fits in the 2nd round or even signed as undrafted free agents. To help Heat fans catch up, I’ve made a comparison to a historical Heat player they may be more familiar with!

 

EJ Liddell OSU 2021-22 Season Highlights | 19.4 PPG 7.9 RBG 49.0 FG%

  • EJ Liddell (6’6” F Ohio State) – Played as an undersized post for much of his time at Ohio State. Terrific switchable defender on the ball and protects the rim. In comparison to the other defensive-minded 4’s on this list, he brings the best complimentary offensive game right away. That being said, it can still use some polish with ball handling and passing skills.  Likely taken ahead of Miami’s 27th pick based on most mock drafts.  

Historic Heat Comp:  more athletic PJ Tucker

 

Jaden Hardy G League Ignite 2021-22 Season Highlights | 17.7 PPG 4.6 RPG 3.7 BLK

  • Jaden Hardy (6’4” G Ignite) – Provides a skill set that Miami lacks on its roster. Hardy has a deep bag of ball handling moves and can create a shot on his own. He seems to project immediately as a volume scorer off the bench with the potential to grow into a much more lethal scorer with more complimentary skills. Many rumors of him sliding could put him in range of Miami’s 27th pick.  

Historic Heat Comp: Dion Waiters

 

Blake Wesley 2021-22 Notre Dame Season Highlights | 14.4 PPG 2.4 APG 40.4 FG%

  • Blake Wesley (6’3” G Notre Dame) – The highest ranked player on most big boards that worked out for Miami. Wesley is an elusive ball handler and score-first player but still needs consistency in his shot and finishing. Near 7’ wingspan and athleticism provides a huge defensive upside. 

Historic Heat Comp: Kevin Edwards

 

“Serbian Sensation” Nikola Jovic 2021-22 Mega Mozzart Season Highlights | 11.7 PPG 42.8 FG% 35.6 3P%

  • Nikola Jovic (6’10” F Serbia) – With many defensive minded 4’s on this list, Jovic brings guard skills as nearly a 7 footer. Still a project that will need development on both ends, but his skillset is the mold for modern stretch 4’s. Defensively is a long way from capable of defending at even an average level in the NBA.  

Historic Heat Comp: younger Rashard Lewis

 

Naismith & SEC DPOY Walker Kessler 2021-22 Auburn Season Highlights | 11.4 PPG 4.6 BLK

  • Walker Kessler (7’0” C Auburn) – Athletic big and elite shot blocker. Needs to get stronger to defend NBA bigs. Good screener and finisher, only a roller at this point but has shown flashes of becoming a pick and pop big. 

Historic Heat Comp: Hassan Whiteside without the baggage

 

Jake Laravia Wake Forest 2021-22 Season Highlights | 14.6 PPG 55.9 FG% 38.4 3P%

  • Jake LaRavia (6’7” F Wake Forest) – Creative passer and good spot-up shooter. Doesn’t provide much off the bounce, but moves well without the ball. While he lacks elite athleticism, competes on defense and can defend multiple positions if he adds NBA strength. Fits what Miami likes at the 4, so likely why Miami worked him out. 

Historic Heat Comp: Shane Battier

 

Andrew Nembhard 2021-22 Gonzaga Season Highlights | 11.8 PPG 5.8 APG 45.2 FG%

  • Andrew Nembhard (6’3” G Gonzaga) – Coming into the draft at 22 years old, seems close to an NBA ready backup PG. High IQ creator and very physical guard on both ends. Three-level potential, but shot could use polishing. 

Historic Heat Comp: Beno Udrih

 

Caleb Houstan || Freshman Highlights ||

  • Caleb Houstan (6’8” F Michigan) – Another fit in the mold of what Miami wants in a complimentary piece next to Jimmy and Bam in the front court. Obviously the Juwan Howard connection at Michigan provides great insight into his projection in Miami. Great catch and shoot threat, high IQ passer, but limited off the bounce. Not the best athlete but should survive defensively. 

Historic Heat Comp: Markieff Morris

 

Christian Koloko | Arizona | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Christian Koloko (6’11” C Arizona) – Huge potential as shot blocker and finisher, but if you’re Miami, can he fit next to Bam without a jumper? He’s still very raw and would require added strength and development. In theory, he’s an intriguing prospect but not sure the fit is there for the Heat.  

Historic Heat Comp: Jarvis Varnado

 

National Champion Christian Braun 2021-22 Kansas Season Highlights | 14.1 PPG 6.5 RPG 49.5 FG%

  • Christian Braun (6’6” G Kansas) – Pesky, high-energy defender and superb athlete who thrives in the open floor. Needs to add NBA strength and consistent outside shot to stick in the league. Worked out for Miami and fits the mold of wings who the Heat have developed over recent years. 

Historic Heat Comp: Josh Richardson

 

Justin Lewis 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Justin Lewis (6’6” F Marquette) – Strong, long (7’2” wingspan), switchable defender. Worked out for Miami and would seem to be an ideal fit in their defensive system. Still needs polish offensively to compliment his defensive strengths. 

Historic Heat Comp: James Johnson without guard skills

 

Josh Minnott | Memphis | 2021-2022 Season Highlights

  • Josh Minott (6’8” F Memphis) – Elite athlete with high-flying bounce. Switchable defender with elite upside, but must add NBA strength to play small-ball 5. Offense is a huge project to develop with no real shooting, passing, or dribbling skills. Worked out for Miami and would address the lacking athleticism on the roster. 

Historic Heat Comp: Mark Strickland

 

Dereon Seabron | NC State | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Dereon Seabron (6’7” G NC State) – Athletic guard who specializes in getting downhill (80% of FGA at the rim). Poor shooter at this point so would require development in that area. Defensive-upside with his length. Miami worked him out and will fill the need for rim pressure on the perimeter. 

Historic Heat Comp: Qyntel Woods

 

Jabari Walker 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Jabari Walker (6’9” F Colorado) – Switchable defender who has high defensive upside. Not quite athletic enough to play the 3, not strong/big enough to survive at the 4. His offensive game needs polish to stick in the league long term. Miami worked him out and fits the mold they’ve used at the 4. 

Historic Heat Comp: more athletic Samaki Walker

 

Keon Ellis | Alabama | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Keon Ellis (6’6” G Alabama) – Creates havoc as an on-ball defender with this athleticism and length (6’9” wingspan). Worked out for Miami and would be ideal playing the top of their 2-2-1 press. Offensive upside is there, but needs polish. 

Historic Heat Comp: James Ennis

 

John Butler | Florida State | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • John Butler (7’0” F Florida State) – While certainly a development project, Butler is a 7 footer who can defend multiple positions and is a knockdown shooter (39%) from outside. Could develop into a pick and pop big, but needs to add strength (only 175 lbs.) to survive in the NBA. 

Historic Heat Comp: taller Okaro White

 

Moussa Diabate | Michigan | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Moussa Diabate (6’10” F Michigan) – Switchable defender with length (7’2” wingspan). Effective rebounder. Useful as a pick & roll big, but has limited offensive skill outside of that. Worked out for Miami and played for Juwan Howard at Michigan. 

Historic Heat Comp: Willie Reed

 

Jaylin Williams | Arkansas | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Jaylin Williams (6’9” F Arkansas) – Another defensive-minded 4, but lacks athleticism and shooting ability to fit the Heat’s mold. He is considered to be the best charge taker in the draft, so he already bought into the Heat Culture. Would need significant development on the offensive end to become an NBA rotation player. 

Historic Heat Comp: Grant Long

 

Julian Champagnie | St. John’s | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Julian Champagnie (6’8” G/F St John’s) – Scorer who does most of his damage on the perimeter. Doesn’t have elite quickness, but can create shots off the dribble. Needs improvement off the catch and shoot mechanics likely would be tweaked. Has high defensive “two-way” upside and is already a very effective off-ball defender. Worked out for Miami. 

Historic Heat Comp: Rasual Butler

 

Jordan Hall: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report

  • Jordan Hall (6’7” G St Joseph’s) – Not a great athlete overall, but displays excellent passing abilities for his size. Will need to improve as a shooter and show ability to defend at NBA level. 

Historic Heat Comp: Shaun Livingston

 

2x Big East POY Collin Gillespie 2021-22 Season Highlights | 15.6 PPG 43.4 FG%

  • Collin Gillespie (6’3” G Villanova) – With Miami’s history of developing shooters, and Villanova’s history of putting guards into the league, this could be a great development match. Gillespie is a rare five-year senior who shot 42% from behind the arc who brings a mature control of running an offense. He plays with a high motor, but likely will struggle to defend NBA guard. 

Historic Heat Comp: Damon Jones

 

Jamaree Bouyea: 2022 NBA Draft Mini Scouting Report

  • Jamaree Bouyea (6’2” G San Francisco) – Likely an undrafted prospect, Bouyea could draw attention as an all-around point guard with great creation ability. His 6’7” wingspan and abilities away from the ball could be developed into a capable defender. 

Historic Heat Comp: Norris Cole

 

Jared Rhoden: 2022 NBA Draft Mini Scouting Report

  • Jared Rhoden (6’6” G Seton Hall) – Lacks elite athleticism, but was a volume scorer for Seton Hall. Could develop into an off the bench bucket getter with solid defense.

Historic Heat Comp: Kasib Powell

 

Trevion Williams 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Trevion Williams (6’8” F Purdue) – Lacks in the defensive skills that are typically identified with a Heat forward, but projects as a pick and roll big with strong passing skills out of the short roll. Will need to improve his outside shot and find a way to survive defensively as a slower, undersized big. 

Historic Heat Comp: Yante Maten

 

Quenton Jackson Drosp 28 PTS In Win At No. 25 Alabama!

  • Quenton Jackson (6’4” G Texas A&M) – Combo guard who can provide scoring punch. Good athlete with two-way potential. Entering draft at 23 years old. Worked out for Miami. 

Historic Heat Comp: Khalid Reeves

 

*****

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Steph Curry, Once in a Lifetime

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People like Stephen Curry come around once in a lifetime.  Today no one in the NBA puts more pressure on a defense with their arsenal than #30.  He is a marksman that can never be replicated. And likely a demi-god among us mortals.

 

When Curry sat at the post-game podium, the first question he got was how it felt to win his first Finals MVP.  He told the reporter to forget about it because he and his teammates were now champions.  

 

Someone was going to inquire about the award media “experts” had made such a fuss about Curry not having.  As if it somehow subtracted from his eminence that it was missing from his oversized trophy cabinet when it’s just a prize for a series.  

 

His response told you everything you’d need to know about him as a teammate.  He could have reflected on his achievement, but that didn’t matter to him.  Winning his fourth meant something different than the rest.

 

No surprise there.  Curry is a compulsive winner who experienced two years of postseason withdrawals because of injuries to him and other members of his outfit.  He reminded reporters and everyone watching live how many days it had been since the Warriors were last sent home- a year and six days.

 

Yet, it was three seasons ago when Golden State last got a sniff of the Larry O’Brien Trophy.  Coming off five straight trips to the Finals is usually the last amount of juice the finest dynasties can squeeze out of a run.  The Warriors were stubborn enough to finish their late encore.

 

In the first half of the series, Golden State lost two of the first three and still needed to play a fourth match on the road.  In Game 4, Curry scored 43 points coming off screens, attacking in transition and slicing through the paint.  Three nights later in San Francisco, Andrew Wiggins stepped up, leading the Dubs in scoring to take a 3-2 lead, sending the series back to Boston.

 

The Celtics couldn’t climb out of their ditch because they kept dropping while defending the pick ‘n’ roll and were ineffective hunting Curry. When #30 turned the corner of screens, Boston gave up enough space outside while covering the drive to the basket. The Celtics also shot 37% from the field with Steph as their matchup on 80 attempts, per NBA Stats. He was a two-way star.  Much to Boston’s surprise and that of part-time observers who still ignorantly believe Curry is the same player defensively he was seven years ago. 

 

Additionally, the Celtics’ short bench eventually bit their tail.  They relied upon seven guys for heavy minutes in the series.  Their legs were dead.  

 

Through the Warriors’ run, Curry scored 602 playoff points, with 187 of those coming in the Finals.  It was the most he logged against the club’s four opponents and the highest output he’s had in the championship round, per basketball reference.  

 

All this jewelry Curry has racked up winning in his career has elevated his street cred to heights only men recognized on a first-name basis understand. I’m not here to say whether or not he is better than any of those guys.  But he’s one of them now.  If Curry were to wear all of that bling in broad daylight, the sunshine reflecting on his ice could blind a bystander if he’s not careful. 

 

***

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Jaylen celebrates after scoring the clinching touchdown for the Miami Dolphins in the win against the New Orleans Saints.

Miami Dolphins 2022 game-by-game predictions

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After a busy free agency and a much quieter draft, the 2022 Miami Dolphins are beginning to take shape. New head coach Mike McDaniel will look to lead the Dolphins to their first playoff birth since 2016. Doing so will not be easy, as Miami has the 14th hardest schedule, based on projected win totals. This includes a brutal six-game (four of which will be on the road) stretch to end the season, featuring five teams who finished last year with a winning record.

Let’s preview Miami’s 2022 schedule and project each game’s score.

 

Week 1: vs. New England

The Dolphins did something last season that they had not accomplished since 2000: they swept the New England Patriots. In Weeks 1 and 18, Miami defeated its AFC East rival.

The two teams will battle it out in Week 1 yet again, making it the third straight year these foes have opened their respective seasons against each other. New England will enter its 2022 slate with a new play-caller for the first time since 2011, as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was hired to be the head coach of the Oakland Raiders in the offseason.

It is unclear yet who will be calling the plays for the Patriots in 2022, and that ambiguity has me hesitant to predict a win for them in their season opener.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 23, Patriots 14 (1-0)

 

Week 2: @ Baltimore

Miami’s first road matchup of the 2022 season will be against the Baltimore Ravens, a team that the Dolphins defeated a year ago, sparking their seven-game win streak.

The makeup of this Ravens team will be different than the one that Miami beat last November, as running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, who both suffered ACL injuries that derailed their 2021 campaigns, are on their way to making full recoveries.

The Dolphins could and should hold their own against the Ravens, but considering the game will be played in Baltimore,  where Miami has not won since 1997 (0-4 since then), a first loss of the season seems likely.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 16, Ravens 19 (1-1)

 

Week 3: vs. Buffalo

In the Brian Flores-era in Miami, the Buffalo Bills demolished the Dolphins, going undefeated in six matchups and winning each game by an average of 18 points.

A coaching change for Miami figures to bring new life into this biannual matchup, and if the Dolphins can alleviate Buffalo’s ferocious pass-rush by unlocking the run game early, Miami has a good shot at beating the Bills for the first time since 2018.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 26, Bills 20 (2-1)

 

Week 4: @ Cincinnati 

Joe Burrow versus Tua Tagovailoa.

This Thursday Night Football matchup features the two highest-picked quarterbacks of the 2020 NFL Draft, and while Burrow has undoubtedly had a much better professional career up to this point, I expect Tagovailoa to find success against a Cincinnati Bengals secondary that ranked 24th in passing DVOA last season.

Ultimately, however, I trust Burrow to eke out a narrow win at home in what should be a high-scoring contest.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 27, Bengals 31 (2-2)

 

Week 5: @ New York

The New York Jets got better this offseason. They strengthened what could be one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, added new weaponry to aid second-year quarterback Zach Wilson and added high-ceiling defensive talent in the draft.

While I expect the Jets to improve this season, especially on offense, I just have way too many questions about the experience and overall talent level on defense to pick them against a team with more established impact players like the Dolphins.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 30, Jets 20 (3-2)

 

Week 6: vs. Minnesota 

Every team in the NFL has at least one “stinker” game per season.

Not every loss is necessarily a stinker; even a win could fall under this category. I think this could be that game for the Dolphins.

I have questions about Miami’s linebackers and their ability to consistently stop the run heading into this season, and the Minnesota Vikings, who feature star back Dalvin Cook (who will be making his return to South Florida, where he grew up), present the Dolphins with a tough matchup.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 17, Vikings 27 (3-3)

 

Week 7: vs. Pittsburgh 

Sunday Night Football is back in Miami (Gardens) after a three-season absence!

The Pittsburgh Steelers stroll into Miami Gardens with expected quarterback questions. Pittsburgh added former Bears and Bills quarterback Mitch Trubisky and then selected University of Pittsburgh gunslinger Kenny Pickett with the No. 20 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

The Steelers have a talented roster, but doubts about their quarterback position do not have me confident to pick them in this primetime contest. I think the Dolphins rebound here after a letdown performance against the Vikings in Week 6.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 24, Steelers 16 (4-3)

 

Week 8: @ Detroit

I really liked what the Detroit Lions did this offseason, especially at wide receiver.

After Amon-Ra St. Brown put together one of the more underrated seasons for a wide out last year, adding former Jaguar D.J. Chark through free agency and Alabama receiver Jameson Williams through the draft gives the Lions a dangerous trio of young talent at the position.

My biggest question, however, lies at quarterback, where former Ram Jared Goff is expected to start for the second consecutive season. Until the Lions upgrade at this position and throughout their defense as a whole, I don’t think head coach Dan Campbell’s squad will win more than six games, including its contest against a more talented Dolphins team.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 27, Lions 13 (5-3)

 

Week 9: @ Chicago

Aside from their Day 2 of the NFL Draft, I didn’t particularly love the offseason that the Chicago Bears had.

Chicago’s offense as a whole still feels very void of talent. I think the unit could be better than expected, however, due to expected second-year improvement from quarterback Justin Fields (who I like), and the acquisition of offensive coordinator Luke Getsy (who I really like).

I’m predicting a Dolphins win, but I think the Bears could keep it interesting.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 28, Bears 21 (6-3)

 

Week 10: vs Cleveland 

The circumstances surrounding this game, at least from the time of this article’s publication, are very dicey.

For the Cleveland Browns, quarterback Deshaun Watson’s status for the game is unclear, but for the purpose of the score prediction, I will assume that he’s playing.

I think this could be Tua Tagovailoa’s most defining game yet as quarterback of the Dolphins. A shoot-out win here would help silence some of Tagovailoa’s critics who claim that the third-year signal caller gets carried to victory by his defense.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 34, Browns 31 (7-3)

 

Week 11: BYE

 

Week 12: vs Houston

The Houston Texans had a mixed-bag of an offseason. I didn’t like the decision to go in-house with the hiring of head coach Lovie Smith, but I loved the selection of cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. with the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft.

I think Stingley could be the best player to come out of this draft class when it’s all said and done. I also like how Houston is giving quarterback Davis Mills a chance to flourish this season; he really started to come on at the end of last year.

The Dolphins should have enough firepower offensively to overcome the Texans in what should be a matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions record-wise.

Score Predictions:

Dolphins 20, Texans: 9 (8-3)

 

Week 13: @ San Francisco 

The Dolphins are on a five-game win streak at this point and possibly near the top of the AFC standings.

Unfortunately for them, I think the streak ends at five, as Miami will have to face off against a tough San Francisco 49ers team following a relatively comfortable home win against the Texans.

I am intrigued to see how McDaniel will fare against the 49ers, a team that the Yale graduate coached for from 2017–21.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 21, 49ers 27 (8-4)

 

Week 14: @ Los Angeles

The Los Angeles Chargers had an active offseason.

In trading for outside linebacker Khalil Mack and acquiring cornerback J.C. Jackson, the Chargers are entering their win-now window with star quarterback Justin Herbert entering his third season.

I think the Dolphins keep this game competitive, but Los Angeles just has too much star power on both sides of the ball for Miami to overcome.

Score Prediction: 

Dolphins 30, Chargers 37 (8-5)

 

Week 15: @ Buffalo

Beating the Bills twice in a season is hard.

Doing so a second time at Highmark Stadium in front of the “Bills Mafia” is even harder.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 16, Bills 27 (8-6)

 

Week 16: vs Green Bay

The Dolphins enter this Christmas Day matchup against the Green Bay Packers in need of a win. Losers of three straight, Miami needs a win to establish itself as a playoff contender in what should be a crowded AFC.

I think Miami gets that win against a Super Bowl contender in Green Bay, which would be the first time that the Dolphins have defeated the Packers since 2010.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 29, Packers 23 (9-6)

 

Week 17: @ New England

Tua Tagovailoa eventually has to lose to the Patriots.

I think this loss comes here against a New England team that could be fighting for its playoff life.

Frigid temperatures are expected in a late-December game in Foxborough, Mass., and I find it difficult predicting Miami to have success in these conditions.

Score Prediction:

Dolphins 14, Patriots 22 (9-7)

 

Week 18: vs New York

There are some similarities to be drawn here to the end of the 2013 season.

The 2013 Dolphins, entering Week 16 with a record of 8-6 and only in need of one win to punch their ticket to the playoffs, collapsed. That team lost in the final two weeks of the season, including in Week 17 at home against the Jets.

I expect the Jets to enter this Week 18 matchup playing some of the best football they have played in years, as all the young talent on the team should start to gel by that point.

New York should give Miami all it can handle, but I think the Dolphins will be able to do just enough to edge out their AFC East rival and punch their ticket to the NFL Playoffs for the first time since the 2016 season.

Score Prediction:

(F/OT) Dolphins 30, New York 27 (10-7)

Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Warriors need more from Draymond Green

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The Warriors should have filled out a missing persons report for Draymond Green.  Maybe it would help remind him of Game 4 at Boston Friday night. 

 

Golden State started Wednesday evening’s affair on their backfoot.  Boston had a double-digit lead in seven minutes because the Warriors were overhelping on non-threatening shooters causing them to be late on closeouts, while also having to play 4-on-5 offensively on innumerable possessions and getting assaulted on the glass.

 

Tatum looked for Curry on the perimeter through forced switches so he could have the smaller man on an island.  Advancing to the hole, Curry would get caught at Tatum’s hip, making help on the cut necessary but exposing the baseline or perimeter.  

 

Climbing out of a 12-point deficit at halftime is no simple task no matter how great the personnel on the losing side is.  The Warriors came out of the break sharper and outscored the Celtics through 12 minutes, 33-25, attacking on the fast break, running pick ‘n’ roll and capitalizing on second chance points. 

 

In the halfcourt, Curry used a double drag screen from Looney and Wiggins on the perimeter to get Horford on a mismatch.  Al dropped unnecessarily as Curry turned the corner of the screen at the top of the key and splashed a deep tray. 

 

Defending the screen and roll in transition, Boston’s big-man, again, dropped into the paint while Curry stopped on a dime at the right elbow and hit nothing but nylon. Horford must have thought he was still defending Miami’s Kyle Lowry from the previous series.

 

 Golden State was down four going into the final stretch but Boston’s counter, ramping up the RPMs defensively, was too large an obstacle to overcome.  It only made it easier for the Celtics to defend while Green was on the perimeter because of all the space given to him.  The Warriors only scored 11 points in the fourth quarter on 33% shooting from the field and 11% from deep.

 

This series could look a lot differently if Green was living up the reputation of his name.  It’s hard to convince anyone a player is performing up to expectations when they have more turnovers than made field goals three games into a series.

 

One can only wonder what would have been the Warriors fate Sunday night if the referees called double technical fouls on Green and Jaylen Brown for their entanglement.  In the regular season, more has been made out of less.  Green already had one technical foul.  He was lucky the refs didn’t have quick whistles.

 

The NBA Communications department said Zach Zarba’s ref crew handled the situation correctly by just calling it a defensive foul on Green in Game 2.

 

Regardless, of what the league says, it could reasonably be argued the situation warranted double Ts.  Brown escalated matters by swiping Green’s legs off his side and then Green shoved his back and pulled himself up by grabbing Brown’s shorts before they exchanged unpleasantries.  

 

The series sits at 2-1 favoring the Celtics, but in order for the Warriors to have a chance on the road in Game 4 they’ll need more than what their starting power forward is giving them. Green’s defense in Game 3 was out of control. He fouled out in crunch time and his final statline read 2 points on 1/4 attempts, 3 assist and 4 rebounds.  Celtics players defended by #23 shot 6/16 from the field, yet he only contested four of those shots because of his reaching habit.  Playing like a free safety hasn’t worked well for one of the NBA’s best help defenders. 

 

On Wednesday, the Warriors gave up 52 paint points.  That’s on the group because the perimeter is the first area guarded.  A defense can only do so much when there’s a breakdown up top.  It’s difficult to expect a waning player like Green to cover so much ground.

 

On the other side, Green has trouble getting open in the post or paint.  More off and on-ball screens would help.  The man scarifying his body always has a short window to get the ball.  And hitting open shots would be a plus instead of leaving enough bricks on the court to start the construction of a new arena.

 

The Warriors have been in this position before going into a Game 4 in a hostile environment but that was seven years ago and the Warriors are now looking at a younger version of themselves.  Curry was once the golden goose of the league like Tatum is today.  Thompson was the ideal right hand man.  Brown’s current role.  Green was the swiss army knife complimenting the two but his edge has dulled.  Smart is that guy now.  And Kerr.  He led them to the promised land as a rookie head coach.  Ime Udoka is two wins away from doing the same thing for Boston.

 

****

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The Predictably Disappointing End of the Miami Hurricanes’ Season

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The warning signs were there long before the NCAA Tournament. The Canes had lost 3 ACC road series in a row and gone 0-2 at the ACC Tournament, including getting run-ruled by Wake Forest.

But the home record was still intact, and when the Canes earned the #6 National Seed there was a prospect of finally making it back to Omaha without having to perform outside Coral Gables.

There was a caveat, though. Miami drew Arizona and Ole Miss in their regional, two very talented, underachieving teams. That meant on paper, the Canes were not better than those teams. Still, at home, and with what was essentially a free pass into the winner’s bracket with Canisius in the first game, Miami’s season still had promise.

The Long and Winding Road to Irrelevance

The University of Miami is young for a university, less than 100 years old. And for that reason, it is rarely a blue blood or aristocratic in anything. Baseball is the exception. Whereas in football the Canes burst onto the scenes as outsiders in the 1980s, in baseball they, through former manager Ron Fraser, were foundational in popularizing the sport.

And from 1973-2016 the Canes were mainstays, not just in the NCAA Tournament, making it every year, but in Omaha, making it 25 times.

In 2016, the last year of this tournament run, the Canes converted a national seed into a trip to Omaha. They did this, not by necessarily playing great, but coming through in the clutch. They won 2 one-run games in the regional to get past Long Beach State, and then used all 3 games to get through Boston College and make it to the College World Series.

But this was the beginning of the end. The Canes couldn’t hit in Omaha, scoring a combined 4 runs across two games. After getting blown out by Arizona, the Canes trailed UC Santa Barbara 5-3 in the 9th inning. They needed 2 runs to force extra innings. And with a runner on 1st and 1 out, with veteran lefty first baseman Chris Barr at the plate, maybe there was one last rally left in the 2016 Canes.

Except Barr never batted. In what was a horrific foreshadowing of the inexplicable demise of the program that echoed all the way into last Sunday’s elimination at the hands of Arizona, then manager Jim Morris chose to pinch hit for Barr with Peter Crocitto. It’s not that Crocitto was a bad player, it was that he had hardly played. Barr had 282 plate appearances in 2016, Crocitto had 60. In his last act as a Hurricane (he would go the NAIA route after the 2016 season), Crocitto grounded into a double play to end the Canes season.

Miami expected to be back. They always get back. And then 2017 happened. The Canes went 31-27 and missed the NCAA Tournament. They were the last team out, and this was largely due to their horrific play in midweek games. Miami was over .500 in ACC play at 16-13, but 1-game over .500 in non-conference did them in.

If 2017 was bad, 2018 (Morris’ last year) was worse. The Canes once again went 16-13 in ACC play, but were a game below .500 out of conference, missing the NCAA Tournament again.

To this day, current manager Gino DiMare stresses the importance of midweek games. Losing midweek games ended the NCAA Tournament streak for the Canes.

This history is painful, but it’s important to understand what Gino DiMare inherited. It was not the machine that Ron Fraser left to Jim Morris and that Jim Morris then carried forward for over 20 years. It was a failing program at its lowest point in over 40 years.

Not Good Enough

DiMare hit the ground running. The 2019 Canes were a resurgence. The end of the Morris’ tenure saw the Canes struggle at the plate, seemingly being left behind by college baseball. But the 2019 Canes powered up. A young team guided by power bats slugged their way through the ACC. Alex Toral was one of the top HR hitters in college baseball and the Canes were fun again.

They, frankly, should have hosted regionals, but they just missed out and were sent to Starkville. Miami was confident, but, in a sign of things that are now so commonplace as to be unnoticeable, the Canes blew the opener. It started well. In the 3rd inning, the Canes hit 2 HRs and went up 4-0. They just needed to press their advantage and step on Central Michigan’s throat to advance to the winner’s bracket game against Mississippi State.

What happened from there is going to be painfully familiar. The Canes gave up 5 runs in the next 2 innings, aided by a massive error resulting in multiple unearned runs. They ended up losing 6-5. Despite winning 2 in a row to eventually face Mississippi State, including an 18-3 win avenging the loss to CMU, the Canes were eliminated by Mississippi State.

2020 was going to be different. The bats were returning, the pitching staff was solidified. Miami was a Top 5 team. And then COVID happened, and the season cancelled.

The bulk of the pitching staff went pro, but in 2021, the Canes still had a good team, with most of the 2019 and 2020 field players returning. But something had changed. Whether through complacency or regression, the Canes were not nearly as good. By the time they went 0-2 in the ACC Tournament, any opportunity for a host had gone. And they were promptly sent to Gainesville.

Losing to UF has been a mainstay in the disintegration of the Canes’ program, so being in their regional was not a welcome sight. But like Moses parting the Red Sea, the bracket opened up for Miami. UF would lose to 4-seed USF and 3-seed USA. Miami just had to beat 2 lower conference, lower seeded teams to make the Super Regional for the first time in 5 years.

Despite Moses parting the Red Sea, the Canes still managed to drown in it. They scored 5 runs in 3 games, with the bats completely disappearing. Somehow, they won the opener 1-0, but lost the next 2 games and went back to Coral Gables a battered and embarrassed group.

Many of that promising 2019 class still had eligibility left, with an extra year being granted for COVID. Nonetheless, they were shown the door, scapegoated for the underperformance of the team.

Resurrection Of Sorts

Whether those 2019 players would have contributed this year is hard to say. With the Canes earning a National Seed, the regular season goals were accomplished.

But in the postseason, the bats disappeared again. They were able to score against Canisius aided by Yoyo Morales’ 3 HRs, but against Ole Miss and Arizona, it wasn’t nearly enough. In a Black Sunday which saw the Canes lose twice, and lose their season, they totaled 4 runs. More frustrating still is that they pitched well, and had it not been for errors in the field, and the inability to get productive outs, they would have won both games.

They could have put Ole Miss away early, with the bases loaded and 1 out. But the Canes swung their way out of the inning, chasing pitches out of the zone from a pitcher that couldn’t find it. After taking the lead 1-0, Miami couldn’t hold it. And when the Canes tried to rally in the 9th, with a 1-out double, they couldn’t.

Arizona was basically the same game. Miami lead 3-2, and had 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the 8th. They could have blown the game open. Somehow, they didn’t score. And with 2 outs and no one on, an error fueled a 2-run rally Arizona. When the Canes had the tying run on 3rd with less than 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, with the season on the line, the failure was inevitable. Miami, for what seemed like the millionth time over the 2 games that Sunday, just needed to put a ball in play. A productive out ties the game.

What did Gino DiMare do? He took a page out of his predecessors’ book. Lefty Eduardo Villegas was up against a righty. He could have let him bat. He also could have pinch hit with Jacoby Long, a low strikeout hitter likely to put the ball in play. Instead, he went to the righty Gaby Gutierrez, who had struck out 30 times in 86 plate appearances. If you’re asking if he struck out, you haven’t been paying attention.

And when a groundout ended the game, Miami had failed to advance to the College World Series as a National Seed for the first time in school history.

Full Circle

Somehow the Canes ended up back right where they started in their 2016 elimination from Omaha. 4 runs scored across 2 games, the last glimmer of hope frittered away with an inexplicable pinch hitting decision.

Something is broken in this program. As we saw the cacophony of scores reverberate across college baseball with teams routinely scoring in double-figures and eclipsing the 20-run mark, outside of a game against Canisius, the Canes couldn’t score. When they needed to make plays in the field, they made errors. A program built on clutch moments, clutch pitches, and clutch hits can no longer execute in the operative phases of games and seasons.

Seasoned veterans of Canes’ fandom wanted to believe this year, but by the 9th inning of the last game, even with a runner in scoring position and 1 out, they knew no run was coming. We’ve seen how this movie ends.

After the game, Dan Radakovich confirmed that he would be working on a contract extension with Gino DiMare. And it makes sense to do so. He’s in his last year of his contract, he took over a program that had missed the NCAA Tournament 2 years in a row, and is coming off his best season. Having him coaching on the last year of his contract makes little sense.

With that said, his best season to this point is not nearly good enough. This team is young and was not supposed to be as good as it was. But it needs to take the step the 2019 team never did.

After 2019, the Canes had a promising, bright future with a young, talented team. They ended up running those players out of town.

Now, in 2022, they are in a similar position, and should not suffer a regression. Contract extension or not, if this team does not progress next year, it should cost the manager his job. He should be empowered to make whatever changes he needs to break this vicious cycle of unrealized promise, and absent the ability to do so, someone else should.

Miami has gone from blue bloods to also rans. From forefront to afterthought.

Abraham Lincoln, frustrated at the inaction of his commanding general George McClellan during the Civil War, remarked:

If General McClellan does not want to use the Army, I would like to borrow it for a time, provided I could see how it could be made to do something.

If Gino DiMare does not take his army, this well-equipped, heavily invested in Canes Baseball program, to Omaha next year, then Radakovich needs to take it back and find someone that can see how it could be made to do something.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a journalist for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003