5 Keys to Panthers-Lightning series

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One year after losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the playoffs, the Florida Panthers are back, looking for revenge in the second round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

 

The Battle of Florida part 2 is here, can the Panthers come out on top?


Here are my five keys to the Panthers-Lightning series.

Florida needs to score on the power play 

I’m not sure what was a more impressive feat in the first round, the fact that the Panthers went 0/18 on the power play, or how they were able to win the series in six games without scoring a single power play goal.

 

Florida was the only team in the first round to not score a goal, with the other 15 teams scoring at least two goals on the man advantage. 

 

As the Panthers progress through the playoffs, if they continue to strike out on the man advantage, their opponents aren’t going to let them hang around in games like the Capitals did.

 

Tampa had the 11th ranked penalty kill in the regular season, finishing the year at 80.56%. This is just slightly better than Florida’s first round opponent, the Washington Capitals, who were 12th in the league with an  80.44% pk. 

 

This matchup against Tampa should be a tight one, so finishing your power play chances will be huge in a best-of-seven series. 

Don’t give the Lightning too many chances on the man advantage 

Looking back at the 2021 first round series between these two sides, it was a power play goal fest.

 

In Game 1, Tampa won a tight one 5-4. They went 3/4 on the power play in that game.

 

In the series, the Lightning went 8/20 on the power play, scoring two or more PP goals in fifty percent of the games. 

 

Between Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov, there are plenty of Lightning players who can put the puck in the net on the power play.

 

The Lightning know how to use the power play to their advantage. Florida needs to play clean hockey to try and limit the amount of times Tampa gets looks on the power play.  

Florida needs another huge series from Sergei Bobrovsky

The two standout Panthers from round 1 were Carter Verhaeghe and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. In six games against Washignton, Bobrovsky had a .906 save percentage with a 2.79 GAA. He held the net the entire series and kept Florida in games with his great play.

 

Looking at last year’s postseason matchup against the Lightning, Florida’s goalie situation was anything but sure. The Panthers started three different goalies in their six games against Tampa; Bobrovsky, Chris Dreidger and Spencer Knight. Bobrovsky had a rough go against the Lightning, finishing the series with a .841 save percentage and 5.33 GAA in three games.

 

So far in this playoff run, Bobrovsky has looked like his former two-time Vezina winner self, not the guy who lost his job multiple times in the playoffs.

 

It’s not going to be an easy time trying to shut the door on guys like Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Co. but if Bobrovsky can play like he did in round 1, he’s going to help his team a lot this series. 

Tampa is going to have to get by without Brayden Point

When I was watching Tampa take the ice last May, the one player who I thought looked the most lethal on the Lightning offense was Brayden Point. Between his quick skating, and elusive slot shot on the power play, Point is a player who demands respect every time he touches the ice.

 

As of now, Point is listed as “highly doubtful” for Game 1, according to Lightning coach Jon Cooper. Point has not been ruled out of the series, however he is supposed to be day-to-day following Game 1. 

 

Point was injured in Saturday night’s Game 7 against Toronto with an apparent right leg injury. 

 

With the uncertainty revolving around their superstar forward’s availability for the series, the Lightning forwards are going to have some big skates to fill as the 26-year-old Point is above a PPG in the playoffs, with 77 points in 74 games over his career.

 

The Lightning are not a single superstar team, if anything they have four to five superstars on their roster, but anytime without Brayden Point is a huge loss for Tampa. 

Aaron Ekblad finally gets a crack at Tampa, can he be the difference?

Looking at the 2021 edition of the Battle of Florida and comparing it to the 2022 edition is like night and day.

 

Florida is a lot stronger than their 2021 team, with guys like Sam Reinhart, Claude Giroux, Ben Chiarot and Anton Lundell all getting their first taste of Panthers-Lightning playoff hockey. 

 

One guy who was on the team last season but was unable to play in the postseason was Panthers star defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who was out with an injury. 

 

This time, Ekblad is ready to go, and he will be a much needed weapon on Florida’s blueline this series. 

 

The Panthers missed Ekblad’s PK skill, his offensive abilities and his sound defensive play last year against Tampa. When Ekblad is on the backend he eats up most of the minutes and the rest of the defensive unit follows his lead. A healthy Ekblad may have helped Florida prolong last year’s series. Now, can he help them win it?

Marlins fans can be part of the solution but are part of the problem

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It’s amazing to look back and realize that South Florida has had Major League Baseball in its backyard for 30 years.

30 seasons, four ownership regimes, three memorable playoff appearances, and two championships.

One of those championships was being celebrated this past weekend in a series against the Milwaukee Brewers, managed by the very man who scored the winning run in Game 7 of the 1997 World Series.

The total combined attendance numbers on Saturday and Sunday were 24,670. To put that in context, the Marlins’ 3-1 win over the Seattle Mariners on April 30 had 29,010 fans in attendance, and that was because it was University of Miami theme night.

To further put it into context, the Tampa Bay Rays, who have spent their entire existence playing in an oversized Costco warehouse adjacent to Tampa, saw a higher attendance (20,832) on Sunday.

The 1997 team deserved better. The current team deserves better. The ballpark is 10 years old and is constantly being upgraded. The Marlins are the only team in baseball that has the players literally greet you at the gate. Jazz Chisholm is not just becoming a star but the envy of fans everywhere. Craig Mish said on his podcast that Chisholm might be a bigger star outside of Miami than in Miami and he might be right.

At some point, the issue of the fans and their constant lack of support must be brought up. No team in baseball is consistently successful without the support of fans . The fans here want the team to spend and succeed despite not going to the games and supporting that effort. Nobody wants to say it, but in South Florida, the fans are part of the problem when they should be part of the solution.

Is South Florida the only market in which the team must literally earn their fans by winning? The Florida Panthers had to win the Presidents Trophy, awarded to the team with the best regular season record, to get full crowds to their games.

Do the Marlins need to make the playoffs first for them to stop playing in empty stadiums? All the complaints one would hear about why nobody goes — the team is not competitive, the owner is cheap — are not unique to Miami, even if the fans like to think they are.

The Colorado Rockies franchise started the same year as the Marlins did. Over that time the have only been in the playoffs five times and in the World Series once. The owner is extremely unpopular and at times fans clamored for a change in ownership. Nolan Arenado, the Rockies’ biggest star since Todd Helton, demanded a trade a year after signing a big extension because of his frustration with the front office.

Do you think anyone in Denver trusts the Rockies’ front office? They signed Kris Bryant, a former MVP coming off another All-Star appearance, to a seven-year, $182 million contract. The move dumbfounded everyone. Why trade away one All-Star third baseman signaling a rebuild just to overspend for another in free agency. Rather than be excited, fans were rightfully confused.

Yet despite all that, the lowest attended game at Coors Field this season was 20,403 on a cold Monday against the Philadelphia Phillies. To get that number in Miami, the dogs need to be let in and Sebastian the Ibis needs to throw out the first pitch.

Not being good enough isn’t a worthy excuse to not show up either. The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off their worst season ever, with practically the same roster, and the only games that saw sub-10,000 attendance were when the Marlins were in town. And this isn’t some state of the art sports complex that alone attracts fans. It’s more than twice the age of LoanDepot Park and smells like a crayon box when the roof is closed. The Diamondbacks wanted to make the county pay for upgrades and were rumored to move to Las Vegas before the Oakland Athletics. And yet they still have better attendance numbers than a Marlins team that signed the World Series MVP in Cuban slugger Jorge Soler and are trying to win.

Want to talk about a lack of trust? Who at this point trusts the Cincinnati Reds? They tore down half of their roster. Phil Castellini, the team president and son of the owner, alienated his fans before the start of the home opener. Despite all of that, in a ballpark with 5,000 more seats, the Reds have seen more home games with 20,000+ fans (5) than the Marlins (2) this season. The last place Reds have had only two games this year with less than 10,000 fans — which has been a constant in Miami since they stopped fudging the attendance numbers.

Are the fans here still holding the past tear downs against the franchise? The first time led to a second World Series in five years. The Marlins instantly improved on offense with the second fire sale. The third rebuild led them to having their most talented outfield ever, and the most recent rebuild is being played out right before your eyes. It’s time to stop holding the grudge.

Miami has the reputation of being an unworthy sports town and in baseball, it’s one that has been earned by both franchise and fans. It doesn’t have to be that way. We’ve seen the energy that emanates from a full crowd in Miami. The two World Series are legendary. The World Baseball Classic was always at it’s best in Miami than anywhere else. The All-Star Game didn’t disappoint either. Even 2012 had good crowds, until the team collapsed in the summer.

Marlins fans need to drop the excuses and start supporting the team at the ballpark because they won’t reach your expectations without you.

Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Down Goes Philly

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True to form, Doc Rivers’ team got schooled in their building.  The first signs of the Philadelphia unfaithful turning on the team were midway through the third quarter as they booed the embarrassment inflicted on their eyes. 

 

Embiid hit the ground more than a soldier trying to evade gunfire.   The Beard looked like he was planning his postgame affairs.  And Rivers’ bald head was the only bright spot for Philly in Game 6.

 

With 9:13 left before the end, ESPN’s cameras caught a peek into the 76ers’ huddle.  Doc pleaded to his group, “Fight for this! Come on, guys. Fight for this!”  But his group looked as deflated as the Hindenburg.

 

Jimmy Butler– the one who slipped through their fingers-  was merciless leading his outfit and attacking the interior on cuts and torching Philly’s drop coverage in the midrange. With a minute left, #22 waved goodbye to the crowd as Miami inched closer to its eighth conference finals trip since 2005.

 

As expected, one of the excuses cited by the 76ers at post Game 6 press was that this version of their team had not been together for much time. James Harden said, “We tried to build a championship contender so fast, which I still think we are, we’re just missing a few pieces, but other than that you try to go for it right away…”

 

Sure, by default, their second-best player was not integrated into the rotations during training camp and had to learn the playbook at an advanced pace.  It probably wouldn’t have made much of a difference because when matters went sideways, Harden showed who he is at those times, too small for the moment.

 

This was the 10th time in the Beard’s career that he’s had zero free throw attempts in a playoff game indicating that his abilities as an escape artist are on par with Harry Houdini.

 

 The 76ers are no closer to winning a title than when Embiid and Ben Simmons first started sharing the court in 2017. This futile effort by their big-man suiting up four games might do the trick in convincing supporters or even ownership of that reality.  But what can’t be unremembered is that Embiid is a super freak who was used up by his club.  His face was battered, his thumb on his shooting hand was compromised and he was finessed into thinking this was worthwhile.

 

Before the 76ers left Miami, I asked Embiid at post Game 5 press about how much a spiked ball to the face deterred his interest in bludgeoning the rim.  He said, “I don’t know.  I’m just trying my best, honestly.”

 

Responding to another reporter, Embiid said he’d be called soft if he didn’t play, or if he did, they say he performed poorly.  Some might knock him for worrying about the media, but he’s human and words can be sharper than a spear.  

 

Right on cue, Charles Barkley claimed Embiid was ineffective because he was distracted by not winning the MVP award.  For reasons I don’t understand, people listen to Barkley give his drivel on the game when all he does is dumb down the audience.  If only he had a clue into how much Embiid cares.  

 

 Joel’s honest answers further enlightened my understanding of him as a warrior.  It made me uncomfortable to watch him squirm on the ground in pain as he was attended by his team. Then he got up.  And he still languished in the second half of Game 5.

 

Rivers did not consider sitting his best man the rest of that night following the close call.  I know because I asked him and sternly said no.

 

In the second half of Philly’s downfall, the 76ers couldn’t stop Miami from getting two feet in the paint, where Miami made 15/21 baskets.  The home team was outscored 50-42 in the final 24 minutes.

 

The playoffs never fail to show the public which teams are for real and who thought they were.  Miami’s got next with the winner of the Boston-Milwaukee series that’s 3-2 in favor of the champs.  If only Philly could have had more to say about it. 

 

******

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What’s Wrong with the Panthers’ Special Teams?

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The Florida Panthers are in a dogfight of a first round. Currently up 3-2 in the series, the games have been far more competitive than many expected. The strange thing, however, is that the Panthers are dominating Washington at even strength. So far in the series, the Panthers are outscoring the capitals 15-8 at even strength. The only thing keeping the series close thus far has been the struggles of the Panthers’ special teams.

Through the first five games of the series, the Panthers are 0-16 (not a typo) on the power play. Yes, the leagues number five power play on the year has yet to score a goal on SIXTEEN tries. Doing some quick math, that equates to a conversion rate of roughly 0 percent.

By Contrast, the Washington Capitals have scored on six of their 20 chances for a success rate of 30 percent. That number is significantly higher than their regular season average of 18.8 percent.

Unsurprisingly, the Panthers performance on special teams has made winning these games significantly harder. The Panthers need to flip their special teams play around if they want to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Power Play Woes

As a hockey fan, I think a disproportionate amount of hockey discourse centers around teams or players being cursed. It acts as a scapegoat for inexplicable playoff performances or uncanny strings of bad luck. Most of the time, its just popular pundits ignoring the obvious or fans living in denial as to why their team lost.

With that being said, I don’t think I’ve seen evidence of a curse as compelling as this one.

I’m only half joking, of course, but this is getting absurd. The Panthers power play struggled early on in the year, but finished as the fifth best in the league. The team was so red hot towards the end of the year they sustained a league best power play percentage of 30.9 percent since February.

And all of a sudden, it vanished.

There are a few moving parts that could explain this. The biggest adjustment for the team has been trying to reincorporate Aaron Ekblad back on the first power play unit. The team found a groove with the five forward power play, and it looks to be a struggle trying to reinstall Ekblad as the quarterback.

Whether it has more to do with Ekblad shaking off some rust coming off the injury or the lack of chemistry with a group that has never played together before, there is simply not enough time to figure it out now. When deployed the five forward power play has generated the most pressure for the Panthers this postseason. The plan should be to stick with that for now and figure out the Ekblad piece over the summer.

Besides that, better results will just come down to getting some more puck luck and playing with less fear. The Panthers are clearly the more talented team. Because of that, high event hockey plays to their advantage. Even if they give up more shorthanded chances, the talent on the roster affords them that luxury. If they play more aggressively and with more movement, more goals will follow.

Penalty kill struggles

To their credit, the Panthers have done an excellent job limiting Alexander Ovechkin’s impact on the power play. They have overcommitted to his one timer and forced him to pass out of his usual spots. He has only scored one power play goal all series, and it came on a broken play.

Obviously, overcommitting to one player opens up plenty of other options for the opponent, and the capitals are taking advantage of that. The main benefactor of this strategy has been T.J. Oshie. Oshie has scored four power play goals this series. The connection between Oshie and quarterback John Carlson has been superb. Oshie tipping and redirecting Carlson’s soft shots has made the Panthers penalty kill look silly all series.

As seen below, the Panthers pressure Ovechkin out of the zone, but some quick puck movement leads to a Capitals goal.

Fixing this one will be tricky. Washington is fortunate enough to have the greatest shooter of our lifetimes on their team and three guys (Carlson, Backstrom, Kuznetsov) who excel at getting him the puck. Overcommitting to him is the right call, but the defense relaxes too much when the puck isn’t in the vicinity of the great 8.

Washington does have a fatal flaw, however, and that is predictability. Their M.O. has John Carlson setting the table for everything and everybody else at the top of the zone. Florida can counter this by putting pressure on the slow footed Carlson and make him move the puck before he is ready.

Look how much space the Panthers give Carlson to take the shot in the clip below. The Capitals want to feed him at the point, and the Panthers let it happen, which leads to a goal.

It may seem counter intuitive to play aggressively that high in the zone when shorthanded, but Carlson has destroyed the conservative approach. Carlson may still be an excellent power play QB, is not the player he used to be physically. The Panthers have excellent speed and need to use that to their advantage here. The key is to be proactive rather than reactive. The Capitals are too experienced for the Panthers to be playing catch up with.

Overall, the Panthers have shown some good and some bad in this first round matchup. They’ve been the better team 5v5, but they’ve also made this series much harder than it needed to be. Hopefully it will serve as a learning experience for them and they can make the adjustments to win this round and more rounds going forward. Only time will tell.

 

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Samuel Schettrit***

 

Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel

 

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Florida Panthers head into Game 5 tied 2-2 despite visible concerns in the series

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With the series tied at 2-2, Florida still has visible issues that could be the difference of winning or losing this series

 

Finishing the regular season atop the league standings had many onlookers heavily favoring the Florida Panthers in their first round matchup against the Washington Capitals. 

 

Washington, who came off of a Stanley Cup win in 2018, was not going to let the Panthers walk all over them in this series. 

 

From the moment the puck dropped in Game 1, the Capitals had their foot on the gas and competed with the Panthers, outclassing them in many aspects of the game, including goalscoring. 

 

After splitting the first two games in Sunrise, Washington returned home to the nation’s capital for Game 3. The Capitals put on a clinic, demolishing the Panthers 6-1 and taking a 2-1 series lead.

 

Heading into Monday night’s Game 4, the Panthers were on the brink of facing a 3-1 series deficit if they couldn’t steal a road game back from the Capitals,

 

On Monday, the game plan looked better than any other game in the series. Florida was getting pucks in deep, countering Washington’s tight gaps in the neutral zone and creating traffic around the Capital’s goal.

 

Despite dominating Washington in shots, faceoff percentage and scoring chances, the Panthers found themselves looking for a goal with under three minutes to play in the third. 

 

Interim head coach Andrew Brunette pulled goaltender Sergei Bobrvosky, and the Cats pushed for the tying goal. With 2:04 left in regulation, Sam Reinhart corralled a puck from mid air, put it in front of him and buried his first-career NHL playoff goal, sending the game to overtime.

In OT, the “Comeback Cats” prevailed when Carter Verhaeghe scored his second goal of the game, sending the series back to Sunrise tied at 2-2.

 

That’s how the Panthers found themselves in a tied series heading into Wednesday night’s Game 5 at FLA Live Arena in Sunrise.

 

It’s a best-of-three series now, but the Cats have not played the greatest team hockey to this point. There are major concerns that could have been the difference between this series being 2-2 and the Panthers having a lead going into Game 5.

 

If Florida fixes these problems, it’s their series to take.

0 power play goals cannot happen

When you look at the Panthers’ lineup on paper, the first thing you’ll think of is explosive offensive talent. They have seven players in the lineup with at least 20 goals from the regular season. The team scored a league high 4.11 goals a game and had more goals (337) than any other team in the league. 

 

You’d think the best scoring team in the league would take advantage of their opportunities on the powerplay, right? 

 

Through the first four games of the series, the Panthers are 0/13 on the powerplay, while the Capitals are 5/17, 29.4%. 

 

Every team in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs have scored at least 2 power play goals so far in the first round, except for Florida. 

 

When the games are close and you fail to capitalize on power play chances, your opponent gets all the momentum from the kill, while your power play unit can’t buy a goal.

 

Florida is lucky that they aren’t out of the series by now with a 0% power play. 

 

In Game 4, the adjustments seemed to have been made for the power play setup. The puck  was moving faster, guys were opening themselves up in shooting lanes, and the players were carrying the puck up and down the wall more rather than being stationary which is common for the Panthers power play.  

 

The best power play setup I saw in Game 4 was when they moved Aleksander Barkov away from the point and had him working alongside the right end board. With his size, passing ability and skill with the puck, he is way more efficient closer to goal than at the top of the point. Stick to that sort of setup and movement and the puck will find the back of the net. 

 

Aleksander Barkov has not shown his usual explosiveness with the puck

When he is on his game, there’s not many better players on the planet than Aleksander Barkov. In this series however, the captain has not looked like his usual self offensively. The stat sheet has him with 3 points (1 goal, 2 assists), which is the same as Jonathan Huberdeau. While the pair have the same points, Huberdeau has been more visible in this series.

 

No question both guys could be better considering how good they were in the regular season, but it’s the playoffs and Barkov hasn’t had the jump you’d expect of a guy who had 39 goals and 88 points in 67 games this season. With Huberdeau, I’ve seen him carry the puck in, hit open guys and push the Caps defense back pretty frequently this series. Barkov, not so much. 

 

Defensively, the back checking, corner battles and getting in lanes are all still there.  It’s the explosive punch that hasn’t been awakened yet in the series. Barkov is so good with the puck on his stick, it’s hard for the opponent to bounce him off it when he gets going.

 

Being more selfish, dropping the shoulder and driving the net, testing Washington’s goalie, that’s what Barkov needs to do because he’s a star player and star players dominating win you a series. 

 

Barkov needs to take over the game; when that happens, Washington will have a 6’3, 215 pound machine coming at them.

Anthony Duclair is losing ice time, fast

Duclair has been one of the best stories of this Panther team. After bouncing around the league, the 26-year-old’s sixth NHL team would be the one where he found a home, in Sunrise. 

 

Duclair had a career-high 31 goals this season, shattering his previous best of 23.

 

Unfortunately for him, his scoring touch has not carried over to the postseason. Duclair is goalless through four games and has seen his ice time rapidly drop. 

 

In Game 1, Duclair had 14:09 of total on ice time. Since then it has progressively decreased, with Duke only seeing the ice for 9:48. 

 

In six games last postseason against Tampa, Duclair went pointless, while seeing his ice time dwindle to around the 10 minute mark then too. 

 

I don’t know if it’s a confidence thing for Duke, but he’s such an offensively skilled player and him putting the puck in the net would be a huge help for the Panthers if they want to advance to the second round.

Can they fix it?

This isn’t the regular season, so you don’t have 82 games, hundreds of practices/skates to get everything in order. The Playoffs is where the champions are separated from the rest. If all three of these concerns can be fixed, great, but that’s wishful thinking as we are just hours away from a decisive Game 5. I think if at least one of these areas of concern can be addressed tonight, the Panthers will have a better chance of winning the series.

Way too early 2023 Mock Draft

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The 2022 NFL Draft has ended, and it was a turbulent one. Now, it’s time for a way too early 2023 NFL Mock Draft.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

Pick 1: Texans – Will Anderson EDGE

I’m sorry Texans’ fans, no QB here. You guys are getting Will Anderson, a once-in-a-generation player. Just for reference, Will Anderson was called “the next guy” by Nick Saban his first day on campus.

Anderson’s unique athletic ability combined with his incredible pass rush IQ let him lead the SEC in sacks — as a true freshman during the Covid year against only SEC competition.

Pick 2: Lions – Bryce Young QB

Next, The Lions go for the “Burrow-to-Chase” type connection. The 2022 Heisman gets reunited with his favorite target, who just happens to be this year’s pick for the Lions. Jameson Williams and Young get to be back together in the NFL. Yes, C.J. Stroud could be the better pick this year. However, Young just makes too much sense.

Pick 3: Jaguars – Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR

In my opinion, as of right now Jaxon Smith-Njigba is better coming out than his other two Ohio State counterparts. Now, this is a “Way too early 2023 NFL Mock Draft” so everything could change, but JSN had top ten tape as a sophomore. So just take that as you will.

Pick 4: Giants – C.J Stroud QB

Yeah, the Daniel Jones project failed. Joe Schoen gets his guy to build with in C.J Stroud. Stroud and Young will be battling for QB1 all year long. With the concerns over Young’s height, Stroud could very well be QB1. However in this world, the Giants get lucky and get Stroud at 4.

Pick 5: Panthers – B.J. Ojulari EDGE

The Panthers let Matt Corral have the keys late in the year after Darnold struggles, and he played them right out of the top 3. So, they go with the 6’3″ EDGE from LSU B.J. Ojulari. Ojulari will test really well come NFL Combine time, which will land him in this top 5 slot.

Pick 6: Falcons – Bryan Bresee IDL

I see the Falcons playing their way out of a QB. Unless they go Spencer Rattler, Phil Jurkovec or Hendon Hooker, which I don’t see at six as of right now — especially after drafting Ridder.

Bryan Bresee is a monster. He is 6’5″ 300 lbs and has a very deep bag of tricks to use when pass rushing. Bresee is a bonafide NFL starter.

Pick 7: Jets – Jalen Carter IDL

Oh, would you look at that, UGA has another stud defensive lineman. In all seriousness, Jalen Carter is better than Jordan Davis in my opinion. He is quicker off the line and a better pass rusher than Davis. Carter is going to prove his worth this season, being the leading man in UGA’s new defensive line.

Pick 8: Seahawks – Spencer Rattler QB

A lot of people aren’t going to like this one. Spencer Rattler comes all the way back from the depth of despair and makes himself the blue chip guy he was before last season. Spencer has all the weapons in the world at South Carolina: Josh Vann, Corey Rucker, Antwane Wells and that’s not including a killer TE room. Look out for Rattler this year.

Pick 9: Bears – Paris Johnson Jr. OT

This offensive line class feels very weak compared to Evan Neal, Charles Cross and Ikem Ekwonu. Nonetheless, Paris Johnson is still really good. He isn’t any of those three guys in my opinion, but he is a great option for the Bears because well, protect Fields PLEASE.

Pick 10: Steelers – Kelee Ringo CB

I had a really hard time with this one. Mostly because I couldn’t pick between Eli Ricks and Kelee Ringo. As Mitch Wolfe said

“Steelers first round picks are normally 1) Underclassmen 2) Power 5 kids 3) Insane athletes.”

Well these two are all three of these things. I went Ringo. The crazy athletic UGA corner might actually get some targets this year, since quarterbacks might actually have time to throw the ball this year.

Pick 11: Commanders – Brandon Joseph S

I’m going to be 100% honest, I feel bad mocking Brandon Joseph here with how teams valued Kyle Hamilton. However, I don’t think Joseph will test the way Hamilton did, which could catapult him up to 11. The Northwestern transfer is going to be vital to Notre Dame’s defense this year.

Pick 12: Vikings – Myles Murphy IDL

It’s shades of 2019 in Clemson with two defensive lineman in the first round. Myles Murphy is just another one of those guys who on tape was a first rounder last year. Coming back? Oh yeah, that definitely should move him up into this range.

Pick 13: Raiders – Bjian Robinson RB

A FIRST ROUND RUNNING BACK?!? Well, Josh Jacobs probably won’t be in Vegas after this year, as the Raiders turned down his 5th-year option.

So, replace him with a guy who can do it all. Watch Bijan Robinson and find me a legitimate hole in his game.

Pick 14: Eagles – Eli Ricks CB

After leaving LSU for Alabama, there is a big year coming for the physical corner. Ricks is a guy who I firmly believe in. He may end up as CB1 by the time the draft rolls around. The reason Ricks isn’t CB1 in this mock just because of the fit with the Steelers and Ringo.

Pick 15: Eagles – Nolan Smith EDGE

Nolan Smith could be the best player on UGA’s defense, but he falls here to 15 due to some off-the-field problems. Smith was driving with a suspended license and he got caught speeding. Other than that? Smith is going to be a star for UGA and will make an NFL team very happy one day.

Pick 16: Dolphins – Jahmyr Gibbs RB

Jahmyr Gibbs joins the likes of Derrick Henry and Najee Harris as a stud running back from Alabama who is going to make a huge difference in the NFL.

He, much like Robinson who went three picks prior, is a complete back. Runs with power, speed, and has great hands.

Pick 17: Patriots – Michael Mayer TE

You want honesty? I took Michael Mayer here because it FEELS like a Bill Belichick pick. Mayer is good, don’t get me wrong, but he shouldn’t go this high. He is a good blocker and a good pass catcher, however he isn’t a unicorn like Pitts so I don’t see him going this high unless someone takes a big shot on him.

Pick 18: Cardinals – Trenton Simpson LB

The Cardinals used their first rounder this year on Hollywood Brown. So in 2023, look for them to add to an aging defense. Trenton Simpson is a perfect fit next to Isaiah Simmons. Simpson is aggressive, but has a great football IQ and good enough vision to be able to make sure he doesn’t over commit.

Pick 19: Titans – Kayshon Boutte WR

Imagine losing AJ Brown, replacing him with Treylon Burks, then adding a guy who was crowned as the next great LSU WR as a true freshman. Kayshon Boutte is that guy.

Pick 20: Colts – Jordan Addison WR

The run on wide receivers begins. Kenny Pickett and now maybe Caleb Williams? The number 1 target for those guys gets shipped out to Indy.

Addison entered the transfer portal after spring ball and is likely headed to SoCal. Addison has great hands and uses his body really well in the air.

Pick 21: Texans – Marvin Mims WR

I think Marvin Mims will have a down year after losing his coach and two quarterbacks, but the talent is 100% there for the 5′ 11″, 177 lbs Oklahoma wide receiver. Mims is fast, a good route runner , and has great hands. Mims will be a good fit for Mills — if he is, in fact, the guy in Houston.

Pick 22: Ravens – Noah Sewell LB

It feels like the Ravens never stop picking up good defenders. So, I’m just going to put Noah Sewell here. Paired up with Patrick Queen, the Ravens somehow get even scarier. Sewell and his teammate Justin Flowe could easily shoot up draft boards.

Pick 23: Bengals – Byron Young IDL

The other “B. Young” from Alabama is Byron, and he is going to make waves for the Tide this year. Now, Young waited behind Christian Barmore and Phidarian Mathis, he is the next up in a long line of Alabama defensive lineman to become a difference maker. Young is strong, and it mostly comes from his explosiveness.

Pick 24: Chargers – Joey Porter Jr. CB

With Chris Harris getting older and already having J.C. Jackson and Asante Samuel Jr, replace the pricey Harris with Joey Porter Jr.

Now you have the best young core of defensive backs in the game. Porter is very fluid in his movements and always does a good job with his hands.

Pick 25: Cowboys – Henry To’oto’o LB

Henry To’oto’o was a monster at Tennessee, had a very good year at Alabama, and chose to come back after losing the National Championship. Henry T’s biggest issue is over-commitment. He can be too aggressive and can get caught in the wrong hole, which is his downfall.

Pick 26: Seahawks – Christian Mahogany IOL

I am expecting a huge year from Boston College’s Christian Mahogany. He has to fix his feet just a bit, however, I am a firm believer in his hands and size combo. If your team needs a late first O-line this is the guy.

Pick 27: Dolphins – Isaiah Foskey IDL

After two weak interior defensive line classes, Isaiah Foskey is the fifth (and not final) IDL to come off the board.

Foskey is an anchor for Notre Dame and is going to work his way into the first round come next April. The big man clogs up gaps quickly with an explosive first step.

Pick 28: Lions – Zion Tupuola-Fetui EDGE

An ABSOLUTE BEAST, Zion Tupuola-Fetui is an physical specimen. However, everyone has doubts with PAC12 pass rushers, and with little production someone will have to bet on talent. I think putting Aidan Hutchinson with Tupuola-Fetui in this 2023 NFL Mock Draft would allow Tupuola-Fetui to grow into his role.

Pick 29: Packers – Garrett Williams CB

I would love to put Garrett Williams next to Jaire Alexander for the Packers. It is a match made in heaven, honestly. Williams is another guy who hasn’t produced much, mostly because people don’t throw at him.

Pick 30: Chiefs – Justin Eboigbe IDL

The final interior defensive lineman goes. Justin Eboigbe is another guy who you have to bet on upside with. He won’t produce much with Young, Anderson, Dallas Turner, and more on that Bama D-line . The Chiefs are in a good enough spot where they can bet on traits.

Pick 31: Buccaneers – Phil Jurkovec QB

Okay, let’s get serious, if Phil Jurkovec doesn’t get hurt he is probably QB1 in this past year’s draft class. He gets the short end of the stick by having to wait a year, where he is now QB4.

However, he probably lands in the best spot any rookie could ask for.

Pick 32: Bills – Derick Hall EDGE

The Bills can bet on the athletic ability of Derick Hall. So far in his college career, he has been super rough around the edges. In this mock, the Bills land an amazing athlete at the 32nd pick in the 2023 NFL Mock Draft.

 

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Luke Krumich***

 

Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel

 

Use code “FIVE” to receive a matching $100 bonus on Prizepicks

Miami Grand Prix Coverage | Hitting the Apex

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No one covered the Miami Grand Prix in Miami like Hitting the Apex on 5 Reasons Sports. Here is the week’s content.

Thursday

Friendship and Formula 1 at the Miami Grand Prix | Hitting the Apex

The Calm Before the Storm | Hitting the Apex

Friday

Miami’s Mecca of Sport | Hitting the Apex

Meet the Protagonists: Inside an F1 Press Conference | Hitting the Apex

Champions on the Track, Heroes off the Track | Hitting the Apex

With Practice Over, The Stage is Set | Hitting the Apex

Saturday

McLaren: British Roots, American Resurrection | Hitting the Apex

A Delicate Balance Awaits Teams Heading into Qualifying | Hitting the Apex

They Don’t Award Points on Saturday – Formula 1’s Probabilistic Approach | Hitting the Apex

Sunday

Inside a Formula 1 Paddock | Hitting the Apex

How Often Do You Look at a Man’s Shoes? – The Tires Powering Formula 1 | Hitting the Apex

The Miami Grand Prix – Max Masterclass | Hitting the Apex

The Madness of Formula 1 Race Week in Miami | Hitting the Apex

 

The Madness of Formula 1 Race Week in Miami | Hitting the Apex

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Covering a Formula 1 weekend has a cadence to it.

The week starts properly on Thursday, where you can get access to the Media Center.

From there, everything gets increasingly serious.

Thursday

The only set thing on the schedule was a workshop followed by a track tour.

The workshop was critical for someone such as myself, covering a Formula 1 race as media for the first time. If I knew anything from decades of following Formula 1, there are rules and regulations for everything and I wasn’t looking to break any of them.

At the workshop, which was held in the press conference room, I found out I was able to take photos of everything I had access to (no videos) and would be able to attend the formal press conferences. I also found out that from where we were sitting, there was no actual way to see the cars running.

Which makes sense. If you’re covering the race as a journalist, you can’t actually tell what’s going on from watching a car zip by at a million miles an hour. We are seated in an air conditioned room with monitors showing the race and timing data, which is optimal for producing content.

The highlight of Thursday was the track tour. We were driven around the track and stopped at various points where we were told about asphalt compounds and the nature of the circuit.

The only thing that really takes you out of the moment and makes you realize where you are is the presence of the Turnpike hovering ominously at certain corners.

When we returned to the Paddock, I was free to walk through it and took some photos, while the team crews moved in equipment.

Friday

The highlight of Friday for media is the driver press conferences. All drivers are required to participate. I walked into the Press Conference Room (this is the only place the entire weekend where masks are required), and took a seat a few rows from the front.

I was mostly able to take photos, but there were a few obstructions.

I wrote extensively on the press conference experience earlier this week.

When I exited the press conference 2 hours later, life had changed. Fans had arrived in the Paddock, and the calmness that characterized all of Thursday and Friday Morning was gone.

From this:

To this:

And then the racing started. 2 practice sessions, driver interviews, and crowds characterized the rest of the day.

Saturday

This is where things get serious. Security was tighter, with qualifying happening.

It was at this point that I realized how exhausting reporting on Formula 1 is. When I cover the Canes, there is usually one macro-event, the game itself. For a Formula 1 weekend, each session is a micro-event, culminating with the macro-event of the race on Sunday. It’s very different.

On Saturday, we get to speak to the team representatives, which is generally the Team Boss. But not all of them. In this case, it was 6 of the 10, in two 30-minute press conferences.

Leaving that press conference, I was not surprised by the crowd of fans this time. Becoming a veteran of this whole F1 Journalist Game.

Qualifying in the Media Centre is something you have to experience to see. It’s a group of journalists seated at tables in rows, watching TV, essentially. But also not really watching. Because everyone is working, pulling out nuggets from the session to incorporate into whatever they’re writing.

Fortunately, I don’t write “game summaries” with enforced deadlines, so I have a little more freedom.

And while media is definitely neutral, there are national rooting interests. The Spanish reporters want Fernando Alonso and Carlos Sainz to do well, for example. (As a side note, in Friday’s driver’s briefing, both Spanish drivers, as Madridistas, were asked questions about Real Madrid’s remontada against Manchester City. #HalaMadridYNadaMas).

When qualifying ends, there are choices to be made. The Top 3 drivers will hold a formal press conference in the press room, while all the drivers (including the Top 3) will eventually make their way through the Interview Pen.

I chose the Press Conference Room. I had seen that room (or a version of it) on TV so many times over the year, and the idea of sitting in a room with Charles Leclerc, Carlos Sainz, and Max Verstappen was too good of an opportunity to pass up.

With that said, I was in the minority. The Press Conference Room is largely empty. So did everyone else go to the Interview Pen?

No. Most stay in the Media Centre. With the Press Conference Room feed being played through speakers and into the Media Centre, the ideal place to write about the press conference is actually the Media Centre. Journalists working.

The highlight of my “journalist” day was definitely meeting with Mario Isola, the Director of Motorsports of Pirelli. He was running late, but that afforded me the opportunity to sit in Pirelli’s hospitality area and wait.

Several of the people working for Pirelli apologized to me for the lateness, and one employee tried to “corrupt” (his words) me with food and drink. We discussed the heat (not the basketball team), and he said it reminded him of Budapest.

Mario Isola was great.

But a side effect of the interview running late is I was able to see the F1 Paddock, empty, at night.

That moment of solitude, alone, in a Formula 1 Paddock at night, was the highlight of the entire weekend for me.

Sunday

Ironically, Sunday is where there is the least to do for a journalist.

At the Miami Grand Prix, there were 2 support races, one for the W Series and for the Porsche Sprint Challenge.

Outside of that, there is a lot of pomp, for fans.

There are sponsored events, a driver parade, a grid presentation. Fans have plenty of time to access fan zones and enjoy the day.

For me, it was a lot of waiting around for the race to start. Some journalists get grid access. Needless to say, I’m not one of those.

Finally, at 3:15, the national anthem. Land of the Free, Home of the Brave.

The race itself felt similar to qualifying in the Media Centre, everyone working away.

After it ended, I went down the Press Conference Room. I knew most journalists wouldn’t make that choice, but I wanted to be there, as my last official act this weekend.

Press conference over, I retrieved my gear from the Media Centre, and said good bye to the Formula 1 circus.

Not good bye to Hard Rock Stadium, of course. I’ll be seeing her in September. The Canes play Bethune-Cookman in 118 days. That won’t quite have the fanfare of a Formula 1 weekend.

But it’s home. Ain’t no place like it.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes  for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

The Miami Grand Prix – Max Masterclass | Hitting the Apex

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Finally, after all the build-up, the race.

It’s kind of weird to have a sporting event after all the side shows surrounding it.

But the race is the reason we’re here. The last act in a play.

The Media Centre gets very empty about an hour before the race, as those with grid access can head out there. You can also walk around the Paddock and meet all kinds of celebrities. They’ll file back in later.

Secretly, I’m a bit nervous of things not going smoothly. This is a showcase for my city, and while everything has been handled amazingly to this point, a disaster of a race is enough to undo anything.

I’m waiting patiently for the Star-Spangled Banner. Racing is why I’m here.

It’s lights out and away we go!

Coming into the race, there was some concern that the Ferraris could control the race. Max Verstappen took care of that immediately by passing Carlos Sainz, to a series of oohs from the collected media.

But all was not lost for the Spanish fans in attendance. Fernando Alonso moved up 4 spots right from the start.

The Mercedes is down on speed this year, but finally this week there is some pace in it. Enter Lewis Hamilton. Formula 1’s greatest ever driver had a bad start, which means we’re treated to watching him eat up the field, with a series of overtakes.

After the opening segment, the race settles down until the first pit stop or first race altering incident. But not this time. Instead, Max Verstappen skinned Charles Leclerc and took the lead.

The Track

About half way through the race, it’s apparent that the track is excellent. You can overtake, but it is tricky enough where nothing is easy. A good mix of tire management, the ability to push, and also the need to concentrate through the tricky section.

When Verstappen pitted and came out in 2nd, it was all but over for the top spot. As Sainz pitted out of the lead, there was an issue. The Italians press were not amused.

After the round of pit stops, the top 4 settled in.

Despite the tracks ostensibly allowing for overtaking, the Red Bull of Verstappen appeared to be just too fast. With the pit stops done, and the race  settled in. Would something change that?

The Finale

The only battles on track at this point are not for points. 12th through 15th are nose to tail.

Which is the beauty of racing. There aren’t points at stake, but you can still watch 4 of the best drivers on earth tap dance around each other.

Could rain throw a curveball? It always looks like it might rain in Miami, so this doesn’t mean much of anything. We’ll see. There is not much time for rain to come in.

And then the crash.

Gasly and Norris collided, a safety car came out. That was the curveball we were looking for.

Red Bull pitted Sergio Perez and maintained 4th. He’s on the best tire now, with fresh tires. Advantage Checo.

10 lap sprint, tire strategies mixed.

This will be fun.

But it was actually anticlimactic at the top. Max continued to control the race. This just in, Max Verstappen is good.

And so is Carlos Sainz. At the very least, you expected Checo to get past him. And he did make one lunge. But Sainz smoothly regained the spot and held off Perez. Brilliance to get on the podium and a much needed points haul.

Ferrari and Red Bull will take this fight to Spain next.

One last Press Conference

The victory press conference. The Top 3.

By the time the drivers get here, they’re exhausted, having been through the media pens already. They still take time to answer questions respectfully.

Max Verstappen’s brilliance shone once again, as the next greatest driver in Formula 1 continues on his journey into the current greatest driver in Formula 1. He won the race with skill, strategy, and guile.

But the weekend? That belonged to Miami. Max called it an “incredible atmosphere,”  Charles Leclerc said the “organization was great,” and Carlos Sainz called it “mega.”

In a weekend with a lot of hype, Miami delivered. It always does.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes  for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

How Often Do You Look at a Man’s Shoes? – The Tires Powering Formula 1 | Hitting the Apex

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Formula 1 is widely considered the highest form of Motorsport.

This is due to the extreme engineering, the financial outlay, and the caliber of drives.

But how often do you think about the tires?

And yes, I’m aware in Formula 1, they tend to adopt the British spelling of “tyres,” but I’m proudly American, so you’re getting “tires” here.

Formula 1 has a long, complicated history with tires.

And the task presented to Formula 1’s current tire supplier, Pirelli, is not as simple as building the “best” tire.

Tire Wars, Madness, and Farce

Over the history of Formula 1, there have been 8 tire manufacturers, and as many as 6 at one time in 1954 and 1958.

The last 2 decades have seen 3 tire manufacturers: Bridgestone, Michelin, and current tire manufacturer Pirelli.

Bridgestone ended 2 years as the sole supplier in 2001, and a Tire War ensued. With teams competing for every fraction of a second, choosing one tire manufacturer over the other could provide a remarkable competitive advantage, or disadvantage.

And without cost caps, Formula 1 exploded. Ferrari partnered with Bridgestone (via unlimited testing) to hone the tires exactly to their specification. Michelin opted for a faster, but less durable tire. Most teams opted for Michelin believing that Bridgestone tires really only worked best on Ferraris.

The United States Grand Prix in 2005 all but ended the Tire War. Michelin’s lack of durability, as well as the strange asphalt, meant that the tires were deemed unsafe for running. When the FIA and Michelin could not agree on a way to run their cars, the Michelin runners did the formation lap and pulled into the pits. The FIA’s relationship with Michelin was forever strained, and Michelin exited the sport a year later.

So if Michelin “lost” the Tire War, did Bridgestone win? Not exactly.

With the reintroduction of tire changes in 2006, there were two tire compounds: (1) the harder “prime” tire and (2) the softer “option” tire. The option tire was faster, but would ostensibly wear out quickly.

The issue is that the “option” tires were too good, often being so durable that outside of the forced pit stop (the 2 compound rule existed back then), it would be faster to run the entire race on “option” tires. Bridgestone (and Michelin prior to leaving the sport) had been tasked with building less durable tires, but were struggling to do so.

The Canadian Grand Prix That Changed Everything

The 2010 Canadian Grand Prix changed the way modern Formula 1 is designed. This great video from Autosport is worth a watch, and I will not plagiarize it here.

But as far as tires are concerned, they wore out at a much higher rate than normal, and teams had to adjust on the fly with complicated strategies.

Which made the racing better. Much better.

It was a Eureka moment for Formula 1 of sorts, accelerating the journey to tire manufactured tire inconsistency.

Bridgestone exited the sport after 2010, citing high costs. Formula 1 was looking for a new manufacturer to usher in this new era as they tried to transition from Tire War to Tire Wear

Pirelli – The Impossible Task and Amazing Results

A tire is first and foremost a safety device. It’s easy to lose focus on that, but with the rate a Formula 1 car is traveling, and the tires being the only thing that contacts the ground (with the exception being Red Bull, when they have a flexi-wing. That’s a deep cut for you F1 veterans), if they are unsafe in any way, the cars can’t run. Michelin proved this in the 2005 US Grand Prix.

But Pirelli’s task was not to produce the best quality, most durable, safest, or even fastest tire. It was to produce several different tires with different wear rates and pace, and get them in an optimal zone so that it could conceivably make sense to use any tire, depending on the strategy you go for.

Fans of modern Formula 1 probably won’t remember how challenging it was for Pirelli to get to this point. Early in the Pirelli Era, the tire rate was so rapid that being on the wrong tire could turn a driver into sitting duck. That can still happen today, but it’s mostly a result of strategy screw up.

As Pirelli developed their tires, they kept getting closer to the zone. But rules around tires were changing. Now, Pirelli had to select which compounds to take to the race, with C1 being the hardest and C5 being the softest.

When I spoke to Pirelli Director of Motorsport Mario Isola, he talked about the challenges Pirelli is able to overcome. With every circuit being a different asphalt, with different weather, and with Pirelli only allowed to have one tire range for the entire season, they are tasked with designing a tire that can run everywhere. Not optimized anywhere, but capable everywhere, while still acquiescing to the desire that the tires wear exactly the right amount.

Coming into a new race like this weekend’s Miami Grand Prix, there is no data for the track. Instead, Pirelli works with the gravel manufacturer to obtain samples and test the tires against it.

This year also added new, larger tires, which Pirelli has had to adjust to.

The remarkable thing is that incidents like the 2020 British Grand Prix with tire de-laminations are incredibly rare. The only discussion you’ll hear of the tires this weekend is around strategy and how to optimize pit stops versus pace versus tire wear.

And the reason for that is because Pirelli is successful in their task. More than a decade on from their re-entry into the sport (Pirelli was one of the original tire manufacturers at Formula 1’s inception), they have achieved the right balance of safety/durability, with wear, to allow teams to have pit stop variance and wide pit windows for optimal stops.

This race day, when you marvel at the amazing cars, and the skill of the drivers, take a moment to look at the cars’ shoes. They are second to none in modernity and engineering.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes  for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003