Through 74% of the regular season, the Miami Heat have smashed even the most optimistic expectations set by media and sportsbooks before this year’s basketball calendar began. In ESPN’s NBA preview, they predicted 49 wins for the outfit. FiveThirtyEight set the bar at a 44-38 record. Caesars Sportsbook forecasted 48.5 dubs.
Currently, the Heatles sit at first in the east, with a 40-21 record and 23 games left. Of the three predictions mentioned above, for Miami to reach ESPN’s more “confident” projection, the team would have to go 9-12 the rest of the season when at no point have they had more losses than wins.
For those that placed wagers following the advice of these outlets, chances of bets hitting are about as likely as Jesus making his epic comeback in this lifetime.
A team has four primary facets. Here are their evaluations:
Executives
The work of the front office behind the scenes often gets overlooked, but those at this post are responsible for acquiring and assembling the pieces for the coaching staff to use. Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg hit a grand slam this past offseason bringing in PJ Tucker, Kyle Lowry, Markieff Morris, Caleb Martin (What was Charlotte thinking?)and bringing back seven familiar faces.
The trade deadline passed and the only move made by the front office was swapping KZ Okpala to OKC in return for altering the conditions to the first round pick owed to the Thunder, making it lottery protected in 2025 and unprotected in 2026. The Heat also moved to $1.9 million below the luxury tax.
Coaches
This is perhaps the best year the team has had in terms of player development. Before the season began, the biggest question about this group was how much could their bench contribute. Six weeks until the postseason, and the Heatles are #1 in the east in large part because they have the deepest rotation in the league.
Adebayo and Butler missed meaningful time in December and January. Down two All-Star caliber players, Miami slugged out a 10-4 record in games they both missed in that stretch. Lowry, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Tyler Herro were the Heat’s stabilizing forces in the backcourt. Caleb Martin, Dewayne Dedmon and Omer Yurtseven deserve praise as well filling in for the frontcourt.
Yurtseven got minutes out of necessity and he ended up setting team records. In 14 straight games, Yurt hauled in double-digit boards, establishing a new rookie standard in rebounding for big-men in Miami.
Duncan Robinson hit a shooting slump in the early phases of the season, but from January until the All-Star break, The Longshot Pod founder has buried 39% of his deep shots. Spo lowered Robinson’s minutes after November, until January, then gave an uptick in time for the last eight games played.
When coach Spoelstra was put under the microscope about his sharpshooter’s struggles by the press, before Duncan found himself, Spo always had his back. In front of reporters after the Nov. 10 loss at Lakers HQ, Miami’s coach was asked about Robinson’s poor shooting (3/13 from deep) and said, “With 13 attempts, that could have been 18-to-20 attempts… I want him to play aggressively with almost a reckless abandon hunting for shots.”
Being a solid dude who never throws his group under the bus goes a long way. Apart from that, Spo’s defensive schemes are the blueprint for the sixth best defensive rating and top paint defense in the NBA.
Starters
Butler- There are four rotation players that could have easily been All-Stars, yet only Butler was chosen. This is one the finest years the Big Face Coffee don has had in the league. He’s setting new career highs in free throw percentage (89.6% on 7.9 attempts) and offensive rebounding (2), to go along with his 22 points, six rebounds and six assists per game.
Adebayo- The Heat arguably have the best defender in basketball this season in Adebayo. His strength, speed and lateral quickness at 6’9, allows him to protect the paint and roam out to the perimeter to harass opposing guards. Only a handful of matchups present a disadvantage for Adebayo.
In the eight games played in February, Miami’s starting center is averaging 22 points (55FG%), 11 rebounds and a 3 dimes a night. If Adebayo maintains this level of offensive production and efficiency, he’ll enter the conversation for best two-way players in the league.
Lowry- The Heat’s lead guard doesn’t have eye-popping stats but his impact is “10X” what the numbers say. Lowry’s ability to launch the half-to-full court outlet pass and organize the offense in the halfcourt, is one of the factors that helped raise the Heat’s offensive rating this season to eighth in the NBA (111.9) from 18th last year (110.6).
In year 16, Lowry is still sacrificing his body on defense by establishing his position before an offensive opponent gets to the same spot. In charges drawn, #7 is second in the NBA, only two behind Blake Griffin.
Tucker: Tucker in his 52 games with Miami, at 36 years old, has unleashed tools of his game that previous instructors failed to incorporate in their plan of attack. Almost a quarter of his field goal attempts come from within 3-10 feet of the basket while he never took more than 18.5% of his attempts from that zone in his career. He isn’t just hurting matchups by splashing triples from the corner on catch & shoot opportunities. Tucker can fool opponents if they give him enough space to put the ball on the floor, or if he eludes them rim rolling on a dribble hand-off.
Defensively, Tucker is savvy and strong enough to guard the outside and interior. The ability to place him in different coverages, allows the Heat at some moments to have Adebayo guard the perimeter, which makes it more difficult for other team to make the entry pass to the paint or post on #13’s side of the court.
Robinson- Despite his up-and-down season, Robinson is a historic marksman. Even when shots aren’t falling, #55’s steady movement on the perimeter often causes mismatches because his defender often times get tangled on a DHO or back screen that’s trying to free up Robinson.
Against the Charlotte Hornets in Miami’s last game before the break, Robinson splashed six triples in the Heat’s double-OT win, bringing his career total of 3-point makes to 702. It only took him 216 career games.
Bench
There’s an old proverb in basketball among coaches that goes, “You need talent to win, but you can lose with it.”
The depth of Miami’s reserves is one of the main reasons this team sits atop the conference. Everyone knows their role and doesn’t try to play outside of their game. Of the 84 charge fouls Miami has drawn this season, 39 have come from the second unit.
The Heat don’t just have deep shooting and scoring off the bench, they also have rebounding specialists. Yurtseven and Dewayne Dedmon are like magnets attracted to the basketball on missed shots. Per 36 minutes, Dedmon and Yurtseven average a combined 7.6 offensive rebounds a night.
Herro is the leading scorer in the league off the bench, dropping in 20 points per game, but he’s surrounded by outside threats who can put the ball on the floor. Guys like Vincent, Martin and Strus, who each have turned into dependable rotation players because of their commitment to themselves and the Heat’s developmental staff.
Miami even has the luxury of having a 20-year lifer in the locker room in Udonis Haslem who never lets the team lose focus, stays ready for action and serves as the team’s self anointed bodyguard.
The Heatles are still waiting for the return of Morris and Victor Oladipo. Incorporating them will be difficult for the coaching staff to do as the season reaches its final phase and rotations are cut shorter. But this gives Miami two quality weapons to use or keep in the armory just in case things go wrong.
Final Grades:
Executives: A
Coaches: A
Starters: A
Bench: A
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