Duncan Robinson and his last shot to savage the season?

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Duncan Robinson has really struggled this first half of the first of the five seasons he is signed for with the Miami Heat.

He’s struggling to get some shots in, and we’re struggling to understand what’s really going on and how he went from one of the most lethal shooters in the NBA to a less than average shooter in this season so far.

40 games in for him (The Heat has played 43), we can’t talk about a short slump anymore. We have to talk about a bad season!

But, wait a minute. Is Duncan Robinson’s season that far away from what he’s done in the past?

His general stats don’t really show that. Or at least, not to the extent that Heat Twitter, and most of our analysts in Five Reasons think.

After only two full seasons in the NBA with the Miami Heat, his numbers per game, in average, have only dropped a little bit. If you look at it in four or five years, you may not even notice it.

Yes, numbers don’t say everything, and I agree: Duncan Robinson is missing shots he was making in the past, and maybe just a bunch of good games helped him bump his averages up, but here’s the simple math (in a general scale):

Only taking into consideration his two full seasons (2019-20 and 2020-21), Duncan Robinson this season is averaging just two minutes less than his first full year, and less than four minutes less than his second full year. Spoelstra has lost some of his confidence on Robinson, but he’s still getting plenty of playing time.

His three-point attempts per game are almost the same. 8.6 per game this year, versus 8.5 and 8.3 in the years before. He’s actually shooting more (just slightly), and he’s definitively making less shots.

So far this season, Robinson has 119 threes in 343 attempts, for a 34.7%, way under his 40.8% from last season, and the 44.6% he had a couple of seasons ago. A 10% drop in two years (more or less, since we’ve had three seasons played in a very short time).

If he continues on this same path, it means Duncan Robinson would finish the season within the NBA average (for this season at 34.9% so far), but way under his average when he

Like Nekias Duncan stated in his article The Curious Case Of Duncan Robinson’s Shooting, what has surprised us the most is that, “oddly enough, it’s the easier shots — catch-and-shoot jumpers — the ones that aren’t falling”. The entire league, in average, is having a down year for multiple reasons.

It’s not just a Duncan Robinson issue, but it’s the issue we see every time we watch the Heat. Or not every time. Be fair with Duncan Robinson. He’s just being average, and you’re not used to it.  “Average” Duncan Robinson should be better than the rest. That’s why he got paid…

With Bam Adebayo coming back tonight, as ESPN reported a couple of days ago, we’ll see if Duncan gets a necessary spark. Teams have adjusted to Bam’s dribble handoff to Robinson in the past, and with Robinson having less gravity to get Adebayo open on a pick and roll,  I am not sure we should expect Duncan Robinson’s numbers to go up just because of this particular play, but hopefully I am wrong.

If you’re tired of my optimism based in cold numbers, you better go ahead and listen to what Ethan Skolnick, Greg Sylvander and Brady Hawk had to say about Adebayo’s return to the team (whenever it finally happens this week):

And also, check Brady Hawk’s Five Takeaways of the Loss against the Sixers here.

Five Things That Could Derail The Panthers

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Sitting atop the NHL standings, a lot has gone right for the Florida Panthers this season. They boast a 25-7-5 record while also having the best home record in the league at 20-3. We haven’t hit the halfway mark of the NHL season yet but the Panthers are looking like a playoff lock after 37 games.

While the team is currently playing their best hockey, is there anything that can stop them in their tracks?

Here are five things that can derail the Panthers.

#1 Road Play

It was already mentioned that the Panthers have an unbelievable record at home this season with only three losses in 23 games. On the flip side, the team hasn’t been great when they are away from FLA Live Arena. 

So far this season the Cats have a 5-4-5 record on the road, getting 15 of a possible 28 points over those games. 

Before we start talking about potential road playoff games, the Cats need to bring the same dominant performances they have shown at home on the road during the regular season. Towards the end of the year when the standings get tighter and the number of games starts to dwindle, snagging a few extra games on the road can make or break the top spot in the division. 

Speaking of the division, this leads us into our next point.

#2 Divisional Matchups

If you aren’t familiar with how the NHL Playoff format works, here is a quick rundown. 

Each conference has eight teams make the playoffs, meaning half the teams from the East and half from the West will be in the postseason. Each conference has two divisions, the Panthers are in the Atlantic Division, which is part of the Eastern Conference. The other division in the East is the Metropolitan. 

Each division has three teams that are guaranteed playoff spots, making that six spots between the two divisions. The remaining two playoff spots are the wildcard teams, which is made up of the two teams in that conference with the highest point total after the three divisional teams get in.  

At the end of the season, the winner of the Atlantic and the winner of the Metropolitan will take on the wildcard teams in the first-round, while the second and third place teams from each division will face each other in the first-round (Atlantic 2 vs. Atlantic 3, Metro 2 vs. Metro 3). 

The Atlantic Division is possibly the most competitive division in hockey this season with Florida, Tampa and Toronto all towards the top of the league standings, with Boston quickly creeping their way up.

Since the second and third place teams will meet each other in the opening round, there’s a chance Florida has to play Tampa, Toronto or Boston in their first playoff series if they don’t win the Atlantic.

Last season, Florida wasn’t able to get first place in their division and they ended up playing the reigning Stanley Cup Champions in the first round. If the Cats finished first place, they would have played Nashville in the first round, a team they went 5-2-1 against during 2020-2021.

If Florida gets first in the division there is a better chance they won’t have to run into the likes of Tampa (assuming the back-to-back champions finish top 3) in the first-round. If you don’t win your division, that first-round series is probably going to be a harder matchup compared to the wildcard team.

#3 Rookie Coach in the Playoffs

Interim head coach Andrew Brunette had a lot on his plate when he had to step in as this team’s coach at the end of October. He had to command the bench of an unbeaten team at the top of the NHL standings amidst the resignation of their former coach. 

There were some rough stretches during his first half of the season, but Brunette has posted a respectable 18-7-5 record as the interim coach and will be heading to Las Vegas to coach the Atlantic Division All Star team in February at the 2022 NHL All Star Game. 

Brunette is going to have a lot of pressure on his shoulders come playoff time and if the Panthers want to advance through the Eastern Conference, they are going to face teams with coaches who have either won Stanley Cups behind the bench like Tampa’s Jon Cooper and Pittsburgh’s Mike Sullivan or guys who have made deep playoff runs like Boston’s Bruce Cassidy and Carolina’s Rod Brind’Amour.

Brunette still has the interim coach tag, but assuming he is with the Panthers for the rest of this season, will his lack of head coaching experience catch up with him? 

#4 Defensive Depth

There is no question that Florida has one of, if not the best offense in the National Hockey League. The depth at the forward position is an embarrassment of riches for the Panthers. With a top-six that consists of Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Anthony Duclair and company, rolling four lines hasn’t been a problem all season for the Cats and it shouldn’t be one for the rest of the year just based on who they can bring into the lineup on any given night.

My concern is the defensive depth for the Panthers. Last season we saw how Aaron Ekblad’s season-ending injury really hurt Florida in their playoff series against the Tampa Bay Lightning. While the rest of the d-corps stepped up following the loss of Ekblad, the team really missed their top d-man. 

This season with Ekblad and Weegar back on the top pair, the Cats have been shutting down their opposition on a nightly basis. 

The blueline has played well for most of the season and Bill Zito brought in some new faces to try and bolster up their defensive depth chart. But is this enough?

The foursome of Ekblad, Weegar, Montour and Forsling are solidified in my mind. Radko Gudas has continued his physical dominance this season and has played 35 of 37 games this year, while the sixth defenseman spot has seen a few different players step into the mix. The problem is, if one of these mentioned defenseman has to miss time, specifically in a playoff series, who is there to call? Lucas Carlsson has had his moments this year, Olli Juolevi has gotten a few games under his belt, you could look at some of the guys in the AHL, but the number of names you can call isn’t as prosperous as the forward unit. 

The Panthers have been rumored to be in the market to acquire a defenseman via the trade market, but until that happens, one injury could derail this blueline more than you think and that could hurt them when it matters most. 

#5 Goaltending Down the Stretch

Goaltending will always be the topic of discussion for the Panthers until they can win their first playoff series in over 25 years. Starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky did not have a good postseason last year, as he lost his net multiple times in the first-round to both Chris Driedger and 20-year-old Spencer Knight . He was signed to an illustrious seven-year, $70M contract in 2019 to take this team to the next level and that didn’t happen last year.

This season Bobrovsky came out of the gates hot and has looked near the top of his game for most of the year. Currently in 26 starts he is 18-3-3, has a 2.49 GAA and a .921 save percentage. 

Bobrovsky has shown in the past that he can be the best in the world, he does have two Vezina trophies to his name. The question is, can he keep this play up in the postseason?

In the regular season the team has been lighting the lamp, however, the playoffs are a different animal. The games are tighter, scoring is usually lower and one bad bounce could cost you a game or a series. 

For now all is good in the net, but the real test has yet to come and the goaltending needs to be better than it was last year if the Panthers want to keep riding their hot hand and push on towards the Stanley Cup.

Stephen Ross

Where should the Dolphins Coaching Cycle stop this time?

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Shockingly, the Miami Dolphins fired Head Coach Brian Flores on Black Monday. 

 

It’s been 26 years since the Dolphins had a coach, Don Shula, that can lead this franchise to multiple playoff berths and in contention for the Lombardi trophy. 

 

It’s been an endless cycle since 1995 as the search continues, with the oddmakers all paying attention.

 

 

 

The Candidates to consider: 

 

Brian Daboll

 

Daboll, 46, has become quite the hot new name in head coach searches. He is given credit for the sharp upward development of Josh Allen. Daboll was 2020 NFL assistant coach of the year because of it.

 

He also is a Bill Belichick protégé who has five Patriots Super Bowl rings to show for it. Oh, and he coached Tua Tagovailoa at Alabama in 2017.

 

Daboll some may recall was Dolphins offensive coordinator in 2011 under Tony Sparano. He did not fail. He lifted Miami’s ranking in points scored from a near-bottom 30th to a near-midpack 20th.

 

 

Daboll was also Tua Tagovailoa’s offensive coordinator 

 

Daboll maximized Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, Matt Moore and Chad Henne. Daboll has had proven success with average to above average players and helped Josh Allen develop into a top 5 QB. 

 

A positive byproduct of this coaching change, if we’re looking for air freshener against the stench, is that it makes it more likely the Dolphins will commit full resources to the development of Tua as their quarterback moving forward.

 

Kellen Moore

 

Kellen Moore has two years of offensive coordinator and Play Calling experience but it’s his third year coaching. 

 

The Cowboys built on Moore and Dak Prescotts rapport. Moore was Dak’s backup and eventually in 2018 became his QB coach. In 2019, Moore took the helm of the Cowboys offense. 

 

In his first year, Moore presided over the NFL’s top-ranked offensive attack, the second-rated passing offense and fifth-ranked running game. His offense helped ascensd Dak Prescott to finish second in the league in passing and set career-highs in passing yards, completions, attempts and Touchdowns.

 

 

Under Moore’s tutelage. Ezekiel Elliot was fourth in rushing yards in the NFL and Amari Cooper had a breakout season.  Moored offensive prowess helped five Cowboys become pro bowlers, with three of them becoming offensive lineman. 

 

Moores impressive resume in a short span says more about the talent on offense and already knowing the Cowboys scheme. If Moore were to get the position he will need a killer offensive staff and question would arise if he could ascend Tua the same way he did with Prescott. 

 

Dan Quinn

 

Quinn arrived in Dallas prior to the 2021 season after serving as the head coach in Atlanta from 2015 until 2020. 

 

He was Miami’s defensive line coach for two years before spending the 2007-08 seasons in the same role for the New York Jets.

 

The big issue coming from Quinn’s tenure in Atlanta was the lack of accountability. When the Falcons messed up on the field, you never saw any anger from Quinn. He would always clap and pat his players on the shoulder after a mistake. Nobody was held accountable, and Quinn would sweep it under the rug. 

 

Now, Quinn has changed his defensive philosophy in Dallas as it aligns with more of what the Dolphins ran last season with similar personnel. 

 

It is extremely impressive as he put Micah Parsons in positions to win and maximized his ability. Quinn all season has maximized and schematically out his defensive players in successful situations. 

 

Quinn built a really good staff in Atlanta which included Terry Rubisky, Kyle Shanahan, Matt LeFleur and Mike McDaniel. If Quinn becomes the next HC, his offensive staff would be intriguing. 

 

Vance Joseph

 

Vance Joseph is the current DC with the Arizona Cardinals and was formerly the HC of the Denver Broncos and the DC in Miami under Adam Gase. 

 

With how Arizona’s defense has performed most of this season and improved over the three seasons he has led it, it was inevitable that he would begin to garner interest. 

 

Joseph, along with Quinn and Daboll have been with the Dolphins as position coaches and coordinators. It feels as if Chris Grier is digging into his past relationships to fill an important need. 

 

It is worth noting that in Miami, the Dolphins defense got statistically worse in giving up yards per game and become one of the NFLs most penalized teams when Joseph was the DC. 

 

In Denver, Joseph inherited a top 3 defense and it failed to go back to that. While the offense struggled, it’s not as if Joseph’s defense overwhelmed opponents, despite talent at each level. 

 

In his Broncos tenure, he allowed 22.8 points per game (15th in the NFL), and 104.5 rushing yards (11th), and 58.3 red zone conversion rate (19th). Led by Von Miller and Chris Harris Jr, the Broncos D had their moments, but not enough to carry Denver to the postseason.

 

Joseph’s offense was dismal. His defense was middle of the pack. What likely sealed Joseph’s fate, however, was consistent coaching errors. Often, Joseph botched late-game situational football, made head-scratching decisions, mismanaged imeout usage, and didn’t put players in the best situation to succeed.

 

Mike McDaniel

 

Although McDaniel is the 49ers’ offensive coordinator, head coach Kyle Shanahan calls the plays. McDaniel helps create the game plan and is in charge of the run game

 

So how did the 49ers do on the ground this season? It’s complicated. They finished seventh in the NFL at 127.4 rushing yards per game, part of an offense that ranked seventh overall and 13th in scoring. Rookie RB Elijah Mitchell was the top rusher with 207 carries for 963 yards and five touchdowns, but he played only 11 games.

 

It is noteworthy that Mike McDaniel was in contention to be an offensive coordinator for the Dolphins in 2020.

 

 

McDaniel is highly regarded around NFL circles. As an intern for Mike Shanahan he was designing plays. While he’s noteworthy for his run game prowess he excels at his understanding of the passing game. 

 

Under Shanahan he designs the game plan, selects the plays and then in game advises on play calls and selects the plays for the next drive. McDaniels is the 49ers play caller 

 

George Kittle asked for it to be written into his contract that McDaniel stays with the 49ers. Former Browns WR Andrew Hawkins said that no other “candidate understands offensive football the way” McDaniel does. 

 

Leslie Frazier

 

Leslie Frazier, the current Bills Defensive Coordinator, if chosen could continue this defensive scheme and build upon this dominance since 2020. 

 

In 2007, he was appointed as the defensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings, adding the title of assistant coach in 2008. During the 2010 season, he became the Vikings’ interim head coach when Brad Childress was fired, becoming their head coach in 2011 and holding that position through 2013.

 

Frazier’s tenure was marked by an inability to develop a quarterback. This season, he struggled just to choose between Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman. Even more damning: Frazier’s defense badly declined in 2013, giving up more points than any team in football.

 

 

His defense in Minnesota failed to adapt to being flexible and was underwhelming with key pieces being the main problem. 

 

In Buffalo, Frazier was part of a coaching staff that developed CB Tre’Davious White and LB Tremaine Edmunds who were both named to the Pro Bowl, with White also garnering AP First-Team All Pro honors.

 

In 2019, his defense finished third in the league, only allowing 298.3 yards per game. In 2018, the Bills defense finished second in the NFL, allowing 294.1 yards per game, which was the Bills highest rank since they finished first in 1999.

 

To me this feels like an interview request to check off the Rooney Rule. Frazier would be tasked in building on offensive staff. He could bring in Ken Dorsey as the OC but rumors are that Dorsey could go back to his Alma Mater, the Miami Hurricanes. 

 

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Who I would want

 

Based on Stephen Ross’ presser he has the Confidence of Tua Tagovailoa as his QB. Ultimately it will be up to the new Head Coach to decide whether they would keep Tua Tagovailoa as the QB. 

 

This comes down to Candidates that are offensive minded coaches that can build an offensive staff that supports Tua Tagovailoa with a competent running game and offensive line, while maintaining the defensive continuity since 2020. 

 

I would roll the Dice with Mike McDaniel, who’s had years of experience under the Shanahan coaching tree. The Shanahan style of run game has the perception of being very hard to learn; however, per players on the 49ers roster McDaniel explains it in simplistic terms making it easier for players to understand through a 2 step cadence

 

 

McDaniel would have to round the rest of his staff with passing game and run game coordinators which he would bring in. The most interesting option would be the OC. I’d bring in Green Bay’s QB coach Luke Getsy. Getsy has 14 years of offensive experience and most notably is the passing game coordinator under Mike Lafluer who has revolutionized Aaron Rodgers and the passing game

 

As for the dreaded offensive line that’s been the league worst since 2019. This current OL needs a veteran OL coach and teacher that can turn it around. Getting Coach Aaron Kromer out of retirement may the best bet of teaching this young offensive line fundamental footwork and techniques to improve their refinement. In his tenure at New Orleans, Kromer sent five OLs to a combined nine pro bowls. In 2009 and 2011, Kromer coached the Saints OL as the best Offensive Line in the league. He joined the Chicago Bears staff helping them become the second best scoring offense in the league. Kromer was part of the Rams Super Bowl 53 run. 

 

As for the defensive side of the ball it would be smart to continue to have the same coaching staff. Keeping Boyer, Alexander and the rest of the position coaches to continue the defensive dominance intact. If the new HC chooses not to, Vic Fangio would make the most sense to continue it. 

 

The Undeniable Rise of Caleb Martin

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For many, just one opportunity is all they need to show the world what they can do. For Caleb Martin, it was about opportunity and the right team at the right time.

 

Caleb Martin was a late addition to the Miami Heat roster. Hell, he’s still not technically even on the official roster as it stands. But that last-second acquisition via a Two-Way Contract was more important than anyone on the Heat staff could have predicted. No one paid much mind to it and many on social media wondered why the team didn’t use a veteran minimum deal on a player like Wesley Matthews. While the move may have been partly to avoid the repeater tax, it made sense.

There’s a lot of CBA lingo I could get into, but the gist of it is Miami wants to maintain future flexibility by avoiding going into the repeater tax right now. It was frustrating at the time for many fans. I thought it was a decent buy-low move but can understand why some wouldn’t see it as such. Charlotte isn’t a huge market and the few that did know about Caleb would have preferred his brother.

The Heat have already learned their lesson of using end-of-rotation spots on journeymen past their prime. So long are the days of Eddie House, Amare Stoudamire, and Eddy Curry. The team now mostly uses those spots to develop younger unheralded guys who have yet to unlock their full potential. Players like Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, and Max Strus. They want to take the clay that other teams discard and start molding them into a vase good enough for a museum.

Caleb was weighing various non-guaranteed Two-Way offers before getting the call that the Heat wanted him in for a workout. He would leave quite an impression on the Miami brass that included Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra. The workout was enough for the team to offer him a Two-Way, the same as every other team that wanted his services. The difference was that Martin knew the Heat’s reputation of taking in undrafted players like him and putting them in the best position to succeed. The organization let its reputation speak for itself and landed a project wing.

What the Heat didn’t envision was Martin contributing as much as he has so fast. I imagine they expected to have him play spot minutes waiting on Victor Oladipo’s eventual addition to the team. It seemed to look that way as he garnered only 8 (garbage time) minutes total through the first 5 games. But as is the nature of the league, injuries occurred and Caleb was called upon more and more.

 

 

You’d think with more responsibility and a heavier workload that a Two-Way player would show why he was passed on by so many teams. It’s turned out to be quite the opposite for the versatile wing from Nevada. Martin has showcased every improved tool in his bag and more during this opportunity. His athletic downhill activity and versatility were facets the Heat had only had in Oladipo’s 4 games last season.

Martin has given them what Derrick Jones Jr used to but with an actual handle and ability to shoot. That shot-in-the-arm athleticism that only Bam Adebayo would give them. The Heat added a player that replicated the description of so many of the players on the Suns team that went to the Finals last year.

These skills didn’t appear overnight either. Caleb’s shooting has obviously improved steadily since he’s arrived. The handle and ability to break down a defender one on one while avoiding too many turnovers. He’s also learned to reign in his hyperactivity at the right times. Early in the season, you would see him cutting and standing where a teammate was occupying space. Caleb’s motor would stay on maximum overdrive at times but he’s learned little by little to let the game slow down.

That motor is still being used to its full potential on the defensive end. Watching him fly around on that end has been a joy to watch. Martin has been causing chaos and headaches for opposing guards night in and night out. He doesn’t care who Coach Spoelstra asks him to defend, he’s going to wreak havoc like Marlon Wayans in any scene he’s ever been in. That part of his game is more of a testament to the development he’s done before even getting to Miami. Caleb himself spoke about how he was always the scorer dating back to High School. He’s been adapting to what’s asked of him for quite a while already.

 

And he’s still learning on the fly as he’s been thrown into the fire. I don’t think he expected to start 9 games while averaging 30 minutes a game. But there’s no denying he’s taken the challenge head-on and full throttle. In his starts this season he’s putting up 14/5 on 54/42/73 shooting splits. A run of starts that included putting up 28 points on 9/12 shooting. It’s not only a challenge but an opportunity. Caleb knows this is where he could make an impression on not only the Heat but the whole NBA. Showing to everyone that he belongs and that he deserves a legitimate long-term NBA contract. He’s made it hard to ignore and it’s inevitable that the Heat will convert his deal when the tax date is up.

Martin knew Miami was the best spot for him to showcase and establish his place in the league. Miami was looking for a player like Caleb and he fell right into their lap. Maybe it wouldn’t have been as easy had Miami not made a name for itself as a development hub for undrafted and unheralded players. Caleb could have chosen to go elsewhere; it’s not like the Heat offered him a bigger deal than those other teams.

Martin and Miami caught each other at the perfect time and now they’re both reaping the benefits. He’s made it a no-brainer that he’ll get minutes once all the big 4 starters are healthy at once. Someone will have to take those minutes from him and I think Erik Spoelstra knows that. He prefers a versatile player like Caleb as opposed to a specialist. Players that fit his description are more valuable in playoff settings, especially ones that could involve the Nets or the Bulls.

It takes a lot to win a title and that includes hitting on value contracts as you pay your max-level stars. Martin was expected to be an infield single, but he’s been an inside-the-park home run. A regular home run isn’t chaotic and hard enough for a guy like Caleb.

 

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Miami Dolphins need to improve in these five areas

Fresh Perspective: Top 5 Miami Dolphins offseason musts

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Now that the season has come to a close, it’s time to break down what are the main improvements the Miami Dolphins need to make this offseason. As always, there’s a long list that needs checking off, but there are certain things that have more priority than others. This column will break down the main things Miami needs to do to ensure that next season doesn’t end on the same sour note this one did, being on the outside looking in.

Later on there will be a position-by-position breakdown detailing every single move the team should make, in this writer’s opinion. But for now, here’s a generalized primer that fits the bill no matter who Miami’s QB is.

1. Buy the offensive line

It’s time to face facts. No matter who is in charge, no matter how many draft picks are invested, the Miami Dolphins simply can’t seem to develop solid offensive linemen. The talent is lacking, and the cohesion as a unit is nonexistent. Coaching is a big part of that. However, there is a simple solution. Do what the Kansas City Chiefs did: buy an offensive line.

According to Spotrac, Miami will have more cap space available than any team in the NFL. That leaves plenty of room for the Dolphins to go on a major spending spree, which should be spent almost entirely on the offensive line. There are some solid left tackle options, as well as some top level veteran guards.

It’s time to give the Dolphins QB – whether it’s Tua Tagovailoa or someone else entirely – an offensive line that isn’t among the absolute worst in the league.

2. Find a legitimate RB

This front office stood on the podium at the end of the 2021 offseason and said they were happy with Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed. Their only real addition was Malcolm Brown, who has spent a large portion of the season injured. It became clear that Gaskin and Ahmed both have real shortcomings as running backs.

Then the Dolphins brought in UM superstar Duke Johnson off the street. He looked much better than either of them. Then the Dolphins added veteran Phillip Lindsay, and he looked better as well. It does not bode well for talent evaluation when two free agent veterans come in midseason and prove to be the superior options.

This season has shown just what kind of a difference even a marginal improvement at running back can do. Two seasons in a row, Miami has opted to ignore the running back position. They cannot do so again. An improved offensive line will definitely help, but all around the league, running backs are making names for themselves. Their offenses are reaping those benefits.

The Miami Dolphins should give contract offers to both Duke Johnson and Phillip Lindsay. But even with them, they should not be content. The Miami Dolphins need a true superstar running back again.

3. Keep the defense together

No question about it. Brian Flores has put together a championship caliber defense. But that means the Dolphins need to do whatever it takes to keep the core together. Emmanuel Ogbah, Elandon Roberts, Nik Needham, and Xavien Howard. They all need new deals in the offseason, and it behooves any GM worthy of the title to make sure these impact players stay in Miami.

Back in 2016, an article was written on phinmaniacs.com regarding whether offense or defense was more important. The research showed some startling results.

Let’s start at the year 2000, that’s a decent place to start right? 16 Super Bowls have been played since then, and of those 16 winners, 10 of them have had a top 10 offense. Ok, now looking at the defense, it would appear that 11 of those 16 teams had a top defense. Again, pretty evenly matched.

So let’s tighten things up again.

Of the 16 teams who have won a Super Bowl since the year 2000, only 4 of those teams have had a top 5 ranked offense. In contrast, 9 of them have had a top 5 ranked defense. Not nearly as even.

For completion’s sake, let’s see how many of those teams had the top ranked offense and defense. Since 2000, only one team has had the top ranked offense and won the Super Bowl, while 6 of them have had the number one ranked defense.

If the Miami Dolphins want to keep any positive momentum, the defense needs to be held together. It’s so rare to reach this kind of plateau on the defensive side of the football. Just keep the existing pieces in place, and the rest of the resources can be used to upgrade the offense.

4. Establish veteran presence

Miami’s painfully slow start can arguably the real reason they aren’t in the playoffs this season. The Dolphins lost a lot of games they had no business losing during their 7-game slide. It took them too long to get back to the style of defense they used last season, and it took them too long to work out other bugs in their fundamentals.

The best way to avoid repeating that mistake is to establish a veteran presence this season. Brian Flores decided it wasn’t important in 2021, but hopefully in 2022 he’ll realize his mistake.

Experience doesn’t need to be incredibly expensive. There are a lot of aging veterans that can be had at reasonable prices. WRs DeSean Jackson or A.J. Green, DE Calais Campbell if he doesn’t retire, OLB Melvin Ingram was given a hard look earlier this offseason. There are veterans to be had that can impart some knowledge and still play an active role.\

5. Assistant coaches must be improved

More than anything, this is on Brian Flores. But there’s no way to know if this is likely to happen. Miami’s assistant coaches, particularly on offense, have little to no pedigree. And it shows. Lemuel Jeanpierre, the offensive line coach, has only been an NFL coach for four seasons including 2021. He’s never been an OL coach before, and that shows as well.

Flores needs to find a veteran offensive line coach. Perhaps he can drag Dante Scarnecchia out of retirement for a year, just to get things on track and train a successor in the process. Or, with the recent firing of Vic Fangio, maybe Mike Munchak will shake loose and Flores can make a play for him to fix things up.

Speaking of veterans, it would be coaching malpractice for Flores to not look at some new potential offensive coordinator candidates. The Carolina Panthers are going to interview the likes of Jay Gruden and Bill O’Brien to take over for Joe Brady, who was fired on Dec. 5.

Or, perhaps, Flores can consider Brady for the OC position. He learned under Sean Payton as an offensive assistant, and then was credited with helping Joe Burrow become a superstar at LSU. Perhaps, Brady can help Tua Tagovailoa – or whoever the QB in 2022 is – to find some success with a new offense that will create some excitement.

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Brian Flores has to know that the product on the field this season was not good enough. If even one of those games – the Jaguars, the Falcons, the Colts – ended in a win instead of a loss, the Miami Dolphins would likely be in the playoffs. Better coaches get better results, and there are some good ones looking for a new home. He has to try and upgrade from what he has on offense.

Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for seven years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung

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Stetson Bennett IV can reach NFL status with a national championship for Georgia

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It’s becoming common place for the iconic Queen song “We Are The Champions” after bowl games, especially one as big as the Orange Bowl. The timing of Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy watching the celebration from a distance with a few teammates only to leave on the lyrics “no time for losers” was poetic. 

The Orange Bowl championship used to mean something but now it’s just another game on the road to the real prize. 

“We didn’t do our everything we did this whole season just to win the Orange Bowl,” Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean said. 

Just like the previous matchup between Alabama and Georgia on this stage birthed the legend of Tua Tagovailoa, the same could possibly happen for Stetson Bennett IV. Tagovailoa came in for Jalen Hurts to rally Alabama to an overtime win in the 2018 National Championship Game. All Bennett has to do is break Georgia’s seven-game losing streak to Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide in next week’s title game.

Among the quarterbacks leading the cream of the crop, Bennett has the story of an underdog. He came to Georgia as a walk-on, then left for a year in junior college only to come back and eventually take over for JT Daniels, who transferred from USC and led the Bulldogs to a Peach Bowl win over Cincinnati a year ago. 

He completed all but 10 of his 30 passes for 313 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in Georgia’s 34-11 win over Michigan to set up an SEC title game rematch with Alabama. Because of his up-start origin and two interceptions, on top of the Bulldogs defense getting taken for a ride for the first time all season, has led to outside doubt in Bennett leading up to the Orange Bowl. Daniels, who only lost his starting job due to injury early in the season, was a desired choice to start for the Bulldogs in the playoff and was ready to go in case of Bennett struggling. 

“I didn’t go out there and play well today in spite of people,” Bennett said. “I came out there and played well and worked hard throughout the few weeks we had off because my teammates needed me to do that, and we needed that to win.”

As disheartening and as boring as it sounds, football teams and players sees everyone without jersey as the enemy to some degree and everything said and posted is considered as the cancerous “noise” that must be blocked out in order to ensure victory. Blocking out the noise is celebrated after a victory, while being “disrespected” is worn as a badge of honor. 

“I think it’s amazing to have a guy his age block out all the noise and just focus harder,” Georgia head coach Kirby Smart said. “It’s almost like every time he hears noise he just focuses harder on the game plan and what he has to do to execute. You look at some plays he made out there with his feet, they couldn’t account for his mobility and some of the plays he made with his feet, and just really proud of the way he prepped for this game.”

If Bennett declares for the NFL Draft and becomes a part of the process, he may be seen as the next Andrew Luck just based on looks and the fact that he no longer uses a smart phone. He has a Twitter and Instagram account. He is one of the founders of the DGD Fund to give back to the communities through a variety of causes, his being the Boys and Girls Clubs of America. Unless it involves NIL, he doesn’t post anything, which is probably going to be the trend of high profile football players.  

“Stetson as a leader on our offense, he doesn’t let that negativity go to his head, for real,” Georgia running back James Cook said on Bennett. “Like he said, he ain’t got no social media, he carry a flip phone around, and he stay off social media, and he just let the noise go over his head and play football. That’s what I love about him.”

Completing deep passes and blocking out the noise are seen as pro qualities that could make Bennett the Mac Jones of this year’s NFL Draft.

Especially if he can redeem his only loss and defeat Alabama on Monday.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Slim Margin for Error for Trail Blazers

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The Portland Trail Blazers are running out of time to turn their season around.  After 42% of the year, they’ve underachieved and sit at eight games below .500. Some of their record can be blamed on the injury report but most of it should be attributed to the poor product the Blazers have put on the court. 

 

Damian Lillard was diagnosed with an abdominal tendinopathy on Dec. 1, causing him to miss the next five games. In that span, Portland went 1-4.  Their only victory came against Detroit, one of two teams with single digit wins.  Yet, Lillard returned 11 days later in the loss at home against the Timberwolves, and it might have been too soon.  

 

Since his return, (8 games) Lillard appears to need more assistance getting open with the help of a screen. Most instances where he zips past a defender have come when he’s running down hill in transition with fewer moments of #0 beating his man in single coverage in the halfcourt.  Whenever Lillard initiates the offense in the halfcourt, Portland’s go-to option as of late is to have a teammate screen for him on either wing so he can pull up for a triple.  It’s becoming as predictable as Julius Randle of the Knicks cutting left. 

 

Another play Portland runs significantly is attack through the pick ‘n’ roll ball handler.  It’s used for 1/5 of their offense but the team isn’t scoring efficiently this way.  Portland is only converting 41.5% of their shots in this category while taking the eighth most attempts in the league.  This could potentially improve with the return of CJ McCollum.   He’s another dependable option to score as the pnr ball handler because of his swift ability to breakaway or stop on a dime.

 

This season under first-year coach Chauncey Billups, Portland has cut down on its isolation frequency.  In 2021, the Blazers led the NBA in iso usage (10.2%) and now only eight other teams run more one-on-one action.  Portland may have the ball stick less now (7.6), but their effectiveness attacking this way has decreased. While McCollum is out, most of the iso plays are going to Lillard, who has his teammates clear out for a possible lane or for space to take a jumper.  On more occasions, Dame Time is settling for a deep tray instead of blowing past his man.     

 

Defensively, the outfit is the worst team guarding in the NBA.  The Blazers are tied with New Orleans for last in the league in opponent 3-point percentage while also giving up over 48 points a night in their interior.  Much of this is due to poor communication, like not alerting a teammate of an incoming screen, a Blazer failing to inform another he’s switching, or not receiving help when stuck in a mismatch. 

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As an illustration, on Dec. 21 at New Orleans,Portland put the Pelicans in the bonus less than five minutes into the game.  Some of the penalties came defending a couple fastbreak layups by NOLA’s Josh Hart and Braondon Ingram and another was Jusuf Nurkić losing control on a loose ball.

 

Then on Dec. 31, Avery Bradley of the Lakers set a screen on Nassir Little on the right wing  anticipating LeBron James’ dive in transition.  James wrapped around the screen and Lillard was left on an island with him on the baseline.  In the moment of truth, Norman Powell did not help from the opposite baseline and instead stayed on Russell Westbrook in the corner. James then powered past Lillard to the basket for two plus the foul.

 

Four minutes into the same game, James stripped Powell’s right baseline cut and got out in transition after Westbrook flung the loose ball back to start the break.  Here Tony Snell of the Blazers can be seen jogging from the left corner until he reaches his team’s 3-point line.  

 

On Jan. 3, without Lillard (load management) at home, Portland outlasted the Atlanta Hawks, but not without the opposing squad dropping 131 points.  It was the fourth time this season their matchup scored at least 120 points at the Moda Center, but the only instance in which the Blazers won.  

 

Portland’s room for error is shrinking, but they are not out of the playoff hunt yet. Lillard and McCollum as recently as the bubble games showed that they could lead their team to wins at the end in the regular season to secure a final spot.  During that eight game stretch the Blazers finished 6-2.  This time around, performing late season heroics might be very challenging.  Every team is at risk of losing a key because of COVID-19 outbreak.  Missing the right players could derail a season.

 

 

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A frustrated Tua Tagovailoa on the sideline near the end of the Dolphins' 34-3 loss against the Titans.

Pressure Point: Tua Tagovailoa fails at defining moment as Dolphins QB

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It wasn’t just that the Miami Dolphins failed again with a chance to break out of the “Same Old Dolphins” mold.

The bitter pill in the 34-3 debacle Sunday at Tennessee was in revealing how far the Dolphins are from being a legitimate playoff team.

Just as it was in each of their three playoff appearances since they last won in the postseason 21 years ago.

Sunday in rainy, chilling Nashville was the Dolphins’ de facto playoff game of this season, and the gap was as wide as the score suggested against a Titans team that celebrated a division-clinching win and at 11-5 stands atop the AFC seeding.

A lot of wrath in the Dolphins’ undoing is being directed at quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the offense — and rightfully so. The real gut punch, though, was seeing the Miami defense, often dominant during the seven-game winning streak, get overrun by the Titans.

Part of that reflects on the inadequacies of the offense putting the defense in an untenable position. Nonetheless, the Dolphins gave up 198 yards rushing to a Titans team still missing Derrick Henry and managed only one sack and little pressure against Ryan Tannehill, who’d been sacked 45 times coming in.

Dolphins stuck in rut of mediocrity

In the biggest moment so far in the Brian Flores era, the Dolphins couldn’t handle the weather, adversity or any challenge presented by the opponent.
So the uplifting seven-game winning streak after a seven-game losing streak is relegated to a footnote in another disappointing Dolphins season.

What a strange, roundabout journey to find themselves at 8-8 and still stuck in the same rut that has defined the Dolphins for more than two decades and counting.

Fitting that the final nail in the coffin of dead Dolphins playoff hopes was put in place by Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers with a 34-13 win over Denver.

Any mention of Herbert inevitably leads right back to Tagovailoa, who the Dolphins selected instead at No. 5 in the 2020 draft.

The comparison with Herbert is irrelevant at this point. The issue to consider is about what the Dolphins saw in Tagovailoa when they drafted him — clearly the pivotal moment early in the partnership of Flores and GM Chris Grier to pick a quarterback to lead them to contending for championships.

Tua’s future uncertain as Dolphins QB

Two seasons of Tua hasn’t brought a resounding endorsement of the decision. Consequently, quarterback will again be at the forefront of what figures to be an interesting and unpredictable offseason.

“People have their own opinions,” Tagovailoa said after Sunday’s game on the question of his future as the Dolphins quarterback. “I’ve heard this the entire time I’ve been here. At the end of the day, I can control what I can control, which is to be the best version of myself.”

Tua had the chance to do that Sunday. It was right there for a defining performance to shove it to his critics.

Instead, Tagovailoa produced these numbers in the first half: 6 for 16 for 71 yards and a fumble lost when the ball slipped out of his hands while trying to throw, contributing to a 17-3 deficit.

There was still a chance make a game of it early in the fourth quarter with the score the same. But after hitting Jaylen Waddle on a beauty of a deep strike for 45 yards, Tua took a sack (he fumbled but the Dolphins recovered) on a strange flea flicker and then had a miscommunication with DeVante Parker on a throw to the end zone.

A fourth down pass to Parker that should have brought a flag for interference didn’t, and the moment was lost.

And with it the chance for Tagovailoa to put his stamp on his future with the team was lost.

More Deshaun Watson speculation likely

Tua is a likable figure, and I was hopeful he was going to be the answer to the Dolphins’ long search for a championship quarterback. I liked his accuracy at Alabama but was wary of his injury history in college.

He has shown uncanny accuracy — when not operating in rain and high winds — at short range. He also has a tendency for head-scratching mistakes.

Ultimately, the question is, how far can he take this team?

From what we’ve seen, the answer seems to be, to the fringe of playoff contention.

That’s well short of the stated goal of this Dolphins rebuild. Certainly not enough to perpetuate the Flores/Grier regime. Because it won’t satisfy owner Steve Ross, who at age 81 has no luxury of patience.

Any team that starts a season 1-7 as the Dolphins did has multiple needs. The offensive line remains a problem and it’s about time they added a legitimate running back in the offseason.

But quarterback will be a big focus and expect a lot of speculation again about Deshaun Watson in the coming months. Whether it ends up being the exiled Texans quarterback or someone else, look for a changing of the guard leading the Miami offense in Week 1 in September.

Jobs are at stake. What Tagovailoa can control hasn’t been good enough. And the Dolphins are still stuck in the same old rut.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: The Miami Heat’s Hot Winter

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The Miami Heat have turned misfortune into opportunity over their last 14 games.  Since Dec. 1,  the team has been without at least two starters and in some cases three.  With key players catching the injury bug and COVID-19, the Heatles have managed to scrape away an 9-5 record.  

 

It’s tough for any outfit to play well through a long stretch when they are down two All-Stars.  Bam Adebayo tore the ligament in his right thumb at home on Nov. 29 against the Nuggets.  He was given a 4-6 week timetable.  Jimmy Butler hurt his tailbone in a fall at Chicago on Nov. 27 and then reaggravated the same injury five games later against Memphis.  Butler recently returned on Dec. 26 in the win at home over Orlando.  

 

Over the past 14 games, the Heat have deployed one of the deepest rosters in the league.  Before Adebayo and Butler went out, the Heat were first in the NBA in protecting the paint in six games through October and third after 15 outings in November.  In December, Miami is back at first in that category giving up only 38.8 points per game in the box.  During this stretch, Miami has relied heavily on the 2-3 zone which dissuades opponents from attacking the basket, but encourages them to shoot from deep or force the action in the middle.  

 

The team’s liking to the 2-3 coverage is probably a reason they are 20th in the NBA at protecting the 3-point line in December.  It’s a lot of ground to cover for two defenders up top and constant ball and player movement can eventually lead to a breakdown on the perimeter.    

 

Yet, Miami has done a decent job this month guarding its opponent.  In December, Miami is ninth in the league in DFG% (44.3) while holding the 10th best defensive rating.

 

If not for the key players out of the lineup, it’s unclear how much time Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Omer Yurtseven would have gotten.  But they’ve seized the day as professor John Keating would say.  

 

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Vincent has started the last nine matches and had back-to-back career highs at Philadelphia (26 pts) then in Orlando (27pts). Yurtseven turned into the Heat’s rebounding magnet before backup center Dewayne Dedmon sprained his left MCL, and is absorbing 13 boards per contest over his last six games.  Martin in seven matches the entire month is casually dropping 13.6 points a night on over 59% shooting.  And it took health protocols within an hour before tip-off vs. Washington to hold back Strus who was averaging more than 22 points a game the last five outings.

 

All of this presents a wrinkle for Coach Erik Spoelstra as soon (if) his squad is fully healthy.  Normally, teams win in the postseason with their best eight guys.  When Adebayo, Lowry and Tucker return to the lineup, the minutes of Miami’s fantastic four reserves will presumably get slashed.  But having too many serviceable players is usually an issue only the contenders have.  Some will be unhappy or frustrated, but it doesn’t mean it is the last time they will play.

 

Some guys will eventually get into foul trouble and get yanked to the bench. Spo might determine a matchup is favorable over someone else.  Or, the odds are high that another Heatle will go through health protocols at some point again.  Miami is lucky it has four of these dudes that can stay ready.

What the Heat have shown is not a mirage.  They have better than a .500 record on the road (10-9) while taking care of home court (12-4).  That is a solid indicator of an exceptional team.

Jaylen celebrates after scoring the clinching touchdown for the Miami Dolphins in the win against the New Orleans Saints.

Pressure Point: Dolphins defy critics, chase new Miami Miracle

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The debate around the Miami Dolphins never relents — constant dissecting of the quarterback, skepticism about their merit as a playoff contender.

The only responses that even matter keep coming in weekly intervals (with a longer gap for the bye week). The team left for dead at mid-season has done nothing since but win.

Win-win-win-win-win-win-win.

That’s seven in a row after Monday night’s 20-3 roll over the COVID decimated New Orleans Saints.

That’s seven resounding retorts to all the calls for heads to roll after the 1-7 start — Fire the coach! Fire the general manager! By all means, fire the quarterback!
Now, at 8-7, coach Brian Flores is on the brink of coach of the year with his team two wins from wrapping up a playoff spot in the AFC.

 

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Streaking Dolphins making history

That’s how crazy this roller-coaster of a season has become. That’s how special it can still be.

The seven straight losses and seven straight wins in the same season is already without precedent.

As if that’s not intriguing enough, all that stands in the way of this latest Miami Miracle is the Dolphins’ previous never-quite-good-enough quarterback, Ryan Tannehill and the Titans, and forever nemesis Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

There’s no reason to look any further ahead than that.

That’s what tearing down the roster and reconstructing it was all about, right? A team that’s been slogging toward some vaguely defined future for two decades can finally just focus on the next two weeks.

Tua at best when he’s down

It doesn’t matter, for the moment, what Flores, GM Chris Grier and owner Steve Ross think of Tua Tagovailoa as the long-term answer at quarterback or whether they’ll look for an upgrade in the offseason. They’re winning with him right now.

No question, Tagovailoa lacks the dynamic arm of Dan Marino — and the Marino 2.0 they could have had, Justin Herbert. But the 40-yard fling to Mack Hollins on the game-clinching touchdown drive Monday night was on the mark and damned electrifying.

And Tua’s connection with former Alabama teammate Jaylen Waddle is already proving historic.

Waddle was another high first-round pick that critics were pooh-poohing after a handful of games. Now the speedy wideout is five receptions away from the NFL rookie record with 96 —  including 10 for 92 yards Monday. He has 941 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

Sure, you can gripe that Tagovailoa’s down-field connections are infrequent, his yards per pass paltry and that — much like Tannehill — he has a penchant for the bonehead play that can cost a game.

But Tagovailoa has also shown a knack for quickly atoning for his mistakes. He did that again Monday after serving a horribly thrown interception. He immediately rebounded by leading one of the best drives of the season: 86 yards in nine plays, including the big heave to Hollins, 24 yards to Waddle on a flea-flicker and capped by a well designed short shovel to Waddle for the score, sparking the latest rendition of the Waddle Waddle.

Dolphins defense creates chaos

But here we are talking too much about Tua again. The story of the win over the Saints and much of the winning streak has been the Miami defense.
Granted, they racked up eight sacks and two takeaways, including a pick-6 by Nik Needham, against a Saints team devastated by COVID and forced to thrust rookie quarterback Ian Book into his first NFL start with insufficient support.

Nonetheless, this has shown to be a championship-caliber defense since getting back to the free-wheeling ways that worked so well last season with blitzes coming from all over the place while a talented secondary provides effective man coverage.

Mike Florio and Chris Simms, on Pro Football Talk, discussed the scheme as designed to “create chaos” and wondered why more teams don’t try the unconventional approach of deploying the front seven in an unrecognizable alignment.

The larger question is why the Dolphins got away from what worked so well last season in the first half of this one and got pushed around during the losing streak.

No matter, they’re bringing plenty of chaos now.

Future right now for Dolphins

The Dolphins are on the brink of something historic, and it’s a great end of year gift to the South Florida sports scene at a time the games we love are being upstaged again by COVID chaos.

The Miami Hurricanes had to pull out of their bowl game. The Florida Panthers’ first legitimate pursuit of Lord Stanley since 1996 has been put on pause (hopefully resuming Wednesday).

If the Dolphins stumble in the next two weeks the focus shifts back to the future. For now, there’s no reason to look past Tannehill and the Titans.

It couldn’t be more simple or more dramatic.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns