Road to the Orange Bowl: Can Notre Dame come back to the ACC?

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The original fear going into the college football season was the SEC having two teams shoved into the playoff. The last time that happened, a team who didn’t play in the SEC title game went on to be the team who won the conference. 

However last year saw two ACC teams in the playoff. For one pandemic crazed season, Notre Dame was a full member of the ACC rather than simply an independent. 

This year the No. 8 Fighting Irish has returned to football independence and after four weeks, I’d bet the ACC wishes to have them back. 

The ACC looks to be out of the running for the College Football Playoff. Clemson suffered its second loss of the season and dropped all the way down to No. 25. It doesn’t help that the two undefeated teams are Boston College and Wake Forest. Neither team has garnered much respect going into the season so it takes a while for the committee and AP to catch on. 

Boston College proved to be an offensive force after beating Missouri 41-34 in overtime off the back of its rushing attack which is 19th in the nation in yards per game at 221.5. The Eagles will earn some respect if they beat Clemson and North Carolina State in the next two weeks.

Wake Forest also seems offensively inclined with a defense that averages 14.3 points per game, but its two best wins are the conference’s two last place teams. The Demon Deacons’ schedule is more backloaded with a November slate of North Carolina, NC State, Clemson and Boston College.

In a crazy way, the ACC’s best chance to spring board back into the playoffs may be for Boston College and Wake Forest to reach the end of the season with perfect records and their titanic clash to scintillate the nation. 

Now or Never

Cincinnati was a feel good story last year after running the table and making it to the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. The No. 7 Bearcats were able to maintain their top 10 ranking by going 3-0 against Indiana and two mid-majors. 

The real test comes on Saturday at Notre Dame. Beat the Fighting Irish on national television and the Bearcats will be made men so long as they can run the conference table. 

Not good enough

Oklahoma is the only team in the top 10 to consistently go down the rankings for winning. A last second field goal against West Virginia isn’t good enough for the AP just like beating Tulane by five points wasn’t impressive either. At this rate, a loss might completely sink the Sooners chances at the playoff. 

Crashing the party

Arkansas put the nation on notice when they defeated Texas by 19 points in Week 2. Now after beating Texas A&M 20-10, the No. 8 Razorbacks are presenting themselves as a force to be feared in the SEC. They are the classic big and scary SEC team that runs all over and snuffs out hope with their defense. Arkansas allows 14.5 points per game, which is the 10th lowest in the nation, and average 261 rushing yards per game, which is good for 8th most nationally. 

The Razorbacks are running through the gauntlet. After Texas A&M comes a No. 2 Georgia team that just finished tenderizing Vanderbilt 62-0.

The Hawkeyes of Autumn 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are No. 5 thanks in large part to their elite defense (11 PPG). It’s surely not because of their offense, which was held to 54 rushing yards against Colorado State. Whether or not Iowa truly deserves to be in the playoff conversation will depend on how they handle 4-0 Maryland on Friday and No. 4 Penn State the following week. Pass those two tests and the pathway to the Big Ten title game is wide open. 

Dolphins Win Cardinals

Why an RPO based offense won’t work for the Dolphins

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After the shellacking against Buffalo, I re-watched the first two games of the season, putting an emphasis on the offensive play calls and personnel groupings.

I came away with the following that the Miami Dolphins should not base their offense on the RPO and adapt a more pro-style approach to help with better play calling, personnel groupings and situational calls.

Overview

The rumblings coming out of this off-season was that the Dolphins would run more RPO’s for Tua Tagovailoa. Boding well for him, he was a great RPO QB in college and a fast trigger to do it, there is a big issue about revolving an offense based on RPO’s. The NFL is not designed to accommodate RPO heavy schemes.

Frank Reich and the Eagles pedestaled it onto the national stage during their super bowl run in 2018. It was a new concept in the NFL, the Chiefs also ran it sparingly. The biggest key- compared to College rules and NFL rules is that in College, Offensive lineman have leeway to go 3 yards downfield in coverage compared to one yard in the NFL.  

The NFL has been cracking down on this as a result of increased RPO calls to maintain offensive and defensive balance.

When running an RPO, offenses have to remain simplistic with two to three options 3for the QB to do. This usually consists of the QB giving off the ball to the RB, and his first two reads on the field. The ball has to come out quick and the offense cannot get overly complex as you have to make the reads while defenders make their way to the QB.

The first few reads can be WR screens, slants, crossers and flat routes to get easy yards and move the chains. It acts as another form of running the ball without actually running the ball. In theory, you will likely have more defenders in the box leading at least one WR to get open.

Steve Sarkisian, former Alabama OC and current Texas HC, once said that the more options you give quarterbacks on RPO’s the more likely they’ll pass the ball. However, in the NFL defenses have adapted by overloading the box by taking away the run read, forcing the QB to pass the ball. 

The typical counter to RPOs, particularly in the NFL, is to play man coverage. The RPO is built around creating conflict for defenders on whether to play run fits or coverage assignments.

The QB then punishes indecision or an aggressive run fit with the quick pass. Man coverage erases that conflict by telling the defenders to stick to their men and dropping a safety down to ensure they still have enough numbers in the box to stop the run.

The Problem

In a RPO, the first assignment executed is run blocking. Once a lineman has leverage while maintaining his block on the defender he drives him downfield and onto the second level. If the QB opts for the pass play and the OL keeps going downfield to the second level it will be called as an illegal man downfield. Remember, the rules dictate an OL can be 1 yard down the field.

LB coaches have learned this and coach players to wait for the run play to develop before heading towards the LOS. If the OL gets upfield the LB can win with speed and put pressure on the QB to disrupt a pass’ timing or an open lane to get a sack.

Usually, RPO’s are done out of 11 personnel (3 WRs, 1 TE). Defenses counteract this by showing man coverage on the field side (wide side of the field). Miami has a 32% success rate in 11 personnel. Yeah, it’s a problem.

No QB should throw a screen pass in a 2 WR look on one side of the field when DB’s are playing press man or man coverage. Thus, defenses will expect and anticipate either a slant or stick flat concept on the other side of the field.

In this scenario, the run is taken away, you cannot throw a screen pass, what’s left is the stick play on the boundary which is a one-on-one matchup. Defenses they can load 6 defenders in the box, and DBs to cover each WR, leaving one safety to cover a TE and another to monitor the deep parts of the field or the middle hooks.

Similar to this:

We saw this on the very first play against Buffalo. The Safety doubles Devante Parker to make it a boundary throw and the play is dead as all options are covered up and Tua takes a sack from a free rusher. Another issue, sometimes because of scheme limitation– at time’s you have to allow a free rusher to come through.

If you take a look at Tua’s second read, Waddle is going deep but also covered up. Basically, the only read that could be successful would have been the run.

Which leads to another problem. Miami does not have aggressive run blockers that can allow their RB’s to get downhill.  Linebackers know they can slow play the run because it takes longer to develop. Also, defenses know how to cover up the main route concepts of RPO’s. Since runs are based off of RPO’s there is no actual running game. 

This in turn leads to no threat of a play action passing attack, defenses will not bite at all. They just have to send four to five blitzers at a time and get home and it has been working the last two games. 

In the NFL, there’s little to no margin for error and a high risk of either committing a penalty or forcing a throw off a bad read. RPOs are designed to be quick and generally only include low yardage  hitch routes, slants, and outside runs.

The Solution

NFL Defenses know how to workaround RPO’s, especially if an entire offense is based on the RPO. I may be overgeneralizing but what has Miami ran a lot of these past two weeks?

I am not saying that the RPO is a bad idea, it can work, it has worked in the past and is working now, but to a certain extent.

The overall point stands, if an offense is based on the RPO, vertical concepts and a real run game are diminished. You only hurt yourself.

“The biggest concern with RPOs is the quarterback getting hit… After all, part of the deal here is that they are blocking as if it’s a run play; they are not protecting the passer. [ESPN’s] Jon Gruden calls it ‘Ridiculous Pass-protection Offense,’ and I understand what he’s saying. We’ve got to get to where it’s sound, so we feel the quarterback can make a read, and if he’s correct in what he sees, then he shouldn’t take a hit”

– Former Oklahoma St, Current Penn St. OC Mike Yurcich

In the college game, they can serve as the main focus of an entire playbook, the same way the triple option is. It cannot be done in the NFL. 

In the NFL, RPOs are a wrinkle to a pro-style offense that can help force man coverage or bring better angles and numbers for the run game. However, without rule changes, they are nothing more than a gimmick to give the QB a fast option to punish an aggressive run defense.

What George Godsey and Eric Studesville need to figure out is play calling tendencies and personnel packages.

Last year Miami was successful running out of 12 Personnel (2 TE sets).

The numbers dont lie. In 2020, Miami had a 56% successful rate running plays in 12 personnel compared to 51% in 11 personnel (3 WR sets)

Per Sharp football stats, through two games of the 2021 season the Dolphins have a 55% success rate out of 12 personnel and a 32% success rate in 11 personnel. Miami has ran more 11 personnel (68 plays) compared to 12 personnel (38 plays)

Of the 38 plays, 16 were dropbacks, 11/14 on passing attempts, 1 TD , 7.6 YPA (yards per average), 1 sack and a 122.0 passer rating. 22 were run plays, with 4.6 YPC and 1 TD.

Of the 68 plays in 11 personnel, 57 were dropbacks, 27/51 on passing attemtps, 1 INT, 4.9 YPA, 6 sacks and a 58.4 passer rating. 11 run plays that went for 1.4 YPC.

Allowing Tua, Jacoby, or Reid see the defense on the field and instead of having pre-set plays. Tua sees the field best in shotgun, 12 personnel, and empty sets. He allows his playmakers to operate in space and distributes the ball.

Running 2 TE sets in 12 personnel seems like the best solution, with sprinkles on RPO and direct play calls emphasizing run or pass plays to help make it easier on the Offensive Line and the Quarterback.

Lets hope they find a solution and implement it in against the Raiders

 

Follow Hussam Patel on Twitter

 

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Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

 

 

76ers Shouldn’t be Intimidated by Ben Simmons & Rich Paul

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Three months ago, the 76ers, in front of a stupefied home crowd, retreated to the locker room amid the groaning boos of the Philadelphia faithful.  Fans stood in horror at the sight of an agonizing meltdown the scoreboard reflected after Game 7s loss to Atlanta.

 

Yet, what followed Philly’s bitter season finale was a reprehensible offense by coach Doc Rivers  at the post-game press conference.  The former NBA point guard was asked if he thought Ben Simmons could be a point guard for a championship team.  

 

“I don’t know the answer to that right now,” Rivers said.

 

The damage was done.  Rivers forgot part of his job was to protect his players, as he candidly responded to the media.  Despite how awful Simmons played in the last four games, no one, except for masochists, enjoy getting humiliated by a superior in front of others.

 

As reported by Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, it’s the reason behind Simmons’ strife with the organization.  Simmons, allegedly, will not attend training camp to manipulate the club into shipping him elsewhere.  It’s the only leverage he and his agent Rich Paul think they have, and it seems they’ve outplayed their hand. 

 

Paul and Simmons are at the blackjack table and think they have an Ace and King.  In reality, they are past 21.  Per the CBA, the 76ers have the right to fine Simmons the equivalent of what he makes in a game, for every day he misses training camp and beyond.  I don’t believe Paul and his client, no matter how handsomely they are paid, are foolish enough to eat a $227,000 fine every game day while they pout their demands.

 

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Eventually, the charade Simmons and Paul are playing will grow tiresome for their wallets.  #25 will at some point walk through Philly’s doors and rejoin the uncomfortable environment he helped create because of his inability to improve from outside of five feet from the basket on offense. 

 

Rivers should have never thrown his player under the bus in front of the press.  His fury for Simmons’ incompetence should have stayed between them. Coach, even took the time as a guest of ESPN’s First Take, Tuesday, to extend an olive branch to his lead guard by saying, “we would love to get Ben back.” 

 

But Philly’s quarterback isn’t blameless.  Opposing teams are mercilessly taking advantage of his limitations and forcing the 76ers to play 4-on-5 when Philly has the ball and Simmons is in the court.  The spacing issues are enough to drive any instructor mad.

 

It’s a peculiar situation, but the 76ers and Simmons both need each other.  Without him, Philadelphia isn’t competing for anything and wouldn’t receive fair value for their disgruntled “All-Star” on the open market if they wanted to move him.  Accepting a poor deal could set the franchise back years.   

 

In Simmons’ case, he won’t expedite his wishes of getting traded, remaining absent from team activities.  The only way Simmons will be moved is if he returns and rebuilds his value on the court.  He is on the books for the next four years and owed $147 million.  His impact doesn’t reflect someone who should take up that much salary cap space for a team, and that’s possibly why no suiter will engage with Philadelphia’s steep trade demands.  

Some NBA Players Proving to be Bad Teammates

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The narcissists who make up the 15% of unvaccinated NBA players are fools.

 

Astonishingly, grown men with straight faces argued in defiance of evidence and reason to their peers and league officials that a vaccine mandate in place to protect them is a “nonstarter,” as ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported.

 

Whatever pseudoscience and rubbish about civil liberties cited by the governing minority as a reason to avoid the vaccine should be treated with ridicule. These players are not smarter than the doctors who have risked their lives helping create an antidote for the world’s plague that has claimed the lives of 4.6 million people.

 

I want to extend my pity to the level-headed gentlemen who tried to help these men see the light because they, too, lost significant brain cells in this failed crusade.  The small group has shown that they are incapable of self-reflection and being counted on by their contemporaries in dire circumstances.

 

The “personal choice” this small faction of union members has taken, whoever they are, is to live in willful ignorance. Yet, I doubt their bubble is blissful.  These rejects will have a different experience in-season than those who are fully vaccinated due to the league protocols.

 

Referees, and all team personnel within 15 feet or less of the athletes, have to be fully vaccinated for next season.  Everyone in the NBA is doing their part to ensure a safer working environment, except for the thoughtless camp.

 

The league will not give COVID tests to vaccinated players in the same high frequency as those who aren’t, per Shams Charania of the Athletic.  The minority are at greater risk of hindering their teams through missed time if a test returns positive or if they come into close contact with someone who is because that forces the unvaxed athlete into a week of isolated shelflife.  Fully vaccinated players will not have to quarantine over close contact with someone positive for coronavirus. 

 

These specific guidelines ensure that another debacle, like when Nets forward Kevin Durant was removed from a game against the Toronto Raptors, twice in one night, over close contact with someone with a positive test, cannot occur again for those who were wise enough to vaccinate.  Only the careless will fall victim to that this year.  

 

Imagine sharing a foxhole with someone who only thinks of themself. It’s not fair to those who did the right thing and embraced the team mentality of thinking of their fellow man.  The dudes who did not vaccinate are bad teammates.

Kyle Lowry is Ready for the Final Phase of His Career

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The longtime Raptor is ready to close out a fantastic career playing a role he’s no stranger to.

It was no surprise that Kyle Lowry’s final big contract came courtesy of the Miami Heat. The rumors had swirled since the trade deadline the season prior. It felt almost like a formality that the two would come to an agreement at the start of free agency. That agreement sought Lowry as a way to bridge the Jimmy Butler era into the Bam Adebayo one. He was the perfect piece to help this team compete in the now while setting them up for the future. Kyle Lowry has spent most of his career playing the role of team player, leader, and connector. What the Heat are going to ask of him won’t be much different from what he’s used to — it’s a match made in heaven.

Dating back to Houston, Kyle knew how to leave his mark in almost every game. He wouldn’t be the flashiest or the prettiest (though his flops were true works of art akin to Warhol), but he knew how to get the job done by any means. Lowry has been one of a kind in a league that’s seen so many unique Point Guards. When Heat fans saw him play, it felt like they were watching what would happen if scientists created the most Heat-like PG.

These two were practically made for each other. It’s the same feeling Heat fans had when watching Jimmy Butler. And similarly to the Butler signing, it seems like the two paths are crossing at the perfect time. Lowry is no longer in the prime of his career at 35, but Miami knows this. They don’t need Kyle Lowry of 2016 to succeed; the current iteration that’s still one of the best PGs in basketball will more than suffice.

You could make the argument the marriage of the two might have been even better if Lowry signed with Miami in 2014 when both expressed mutual interest. But let’s not dwell on the past like a regretful 40-something. The Heat have proven time and again that they always circle back to players. While it may not be 2014, this union’s timing is still right to benefit both sides greatly.

Earlier, I talked about Lowry being the “bridge” to connect the old and new guards. Last season Miami was a team stuck in the middle, not knowing which direction to go full throttle. After a wasted year that saw Jimmy Butler put up incredible numbers, it was clear they needed to stop waffling. But with Kyle Lowry, it’s not only a “win-now” move — it’s a move that’ll help the future of the franchise in Bam Adebayo to be the best version of himself.

That’s the kind of player Kyle Lowry has always been. Lowry has worked with young players waiting for their greatness to be unleashed. He made the game easier for Pascal Siakam while knowing when to take a step back so that he could learn to fly. All those small but significant details Kyle plugs will make the game slow down even more than ever for a young player, especially a center like Bam. I won’t go into more detail about those intricacies since everyone and their mother has written in-depth about those already. We all know about the pocket passes, short roll delivery, post-entry passes, quick hitters, and DHOs flowing into pick-and-rolls. Adebayo will get his piece of the pie on a platter as opposed to through the pig trough.

 

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Lowry wants to make the game easier for everyone in a variety of ways. He plays every possession like a mini-war that he wants to get all his soldiers through on the winning side. That may seem like hyperbole, but the man literally went through a player’s legs attempting to get a foul call. The same guy that tried drawing multiple charges at an All-Star Game. It’s safe to say that he’s not one to take possessions off that easily.

But Miami won’t be asking him to do too much. At this point in his career, asking for everything from Lowry in an 82 game season is a sticky proposition. It’s a good thing Miami will only want about 75% of everything. A line of around 16-7-5 on 33 minutes with decent efficiency is the sweet spot throughout the season. The playoffs are where everyone will be asking for that 100% Ultimate Lowry Form. Not asking much from Lowry as he reaches the tail-end of his career will lend this union to paying even more dividends for his longevity.

Kyle Lowry doesn’t need much more to solidify what was already a wonderful career, but these final few years of competing in the playoffs will go a long way for those who still aren’t sure of his historical status. Not everyone has appreciated him the way Toronto fans or hardcore fans of the NBA have. The man has a Championship run under his belt — he doesn’t need to validate himself to casual fans. But these will more than likely be the last memories he’ll be making for a team that wants to win right now. A Miami team asking him to help lead them to another deep playoff run while guiding their up-and-coming star in Bam Adebayo. He’ll be easing the games of Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, and Tyler Herro while they ease the burden of him having to do too much.

Both Toronto and Lowry knew that their timelines were diverging and that it was time to go their separate ways. The split won’t take away all those memories he made or the legacy he helped build throughout his tenure. He knew it was time to take on a new challenge in his career. The time was right for him to say goodbye and venture to this new challenge of his career. He’ll take on this challenge the only way Kyle Lowry knows, and that’s to go in 100 miles per hour while in controlled chaos mode. He’ll forever be known as the quintessential Toronto Raptor. The heartbreak and triumph that followed are etched forever on the minds of every Raptors fan. Those films will play in the back of their minds, with Lowry playing the lead in every one of them, holding everything together throughout the years.

Lowry has always been the glue that holds a team together. He’s played the role and perfected it in a way few point guards achieve. The role isn’t anything new for the 6-time All-Star, but now it’s a whole new movie. Lowry isn’t the leading man anymore, but the supporting actor that gets Oscar-buzz after a resounding return to the big screen. Heat fans are lucky to get front-row seats to whatever his final act has in store.

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

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Road to the Orange Bowl: Two SEC teams in the playoffs, again?

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Given the Week 4 rankings it’s going to be awfully difficult for the College Football Playoff committee to resist the urge to place two SEC teams in the final four. 

Once again, No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Georgia sit at the top of the rankings, along side with five other SEC members. The Crimson Tide held off a second half surge at No. 11 Florida while the Bulldogs dominated South Carolina at home. 

The last time both Alabama and Georgia were in the playoff, they met in the title game. Alabama won the national championship despite not even playing in the SEC title game.

It’s likely that the only time these two titans face off will be in the SEC Championship Game. Should they both maintain their respective standing going into the title game, would the results be moot? Would the loser simply end up at No. 4 when it’s all said and done?

For the other conference front runners, that would hopefully not be the case. No. 4 Oklahoma continues to go up and down the rankings because of how close the Sooners’ soft non-conference matchups have been. Oregon moved up to No. 3 but might not have to luxury of a forgivable loss entering their conference slate. The Big Ten’s three Top 10 teams (No. 5 Iowa, No. 6 Penn State and No. 10 Ohio State) will likely beat each other up Until No. 8 Cincinnati enters the Big 12, the Bearcats will likely need to be perfect and hope for nationwide chaos to get in. 

The road to the Orange Bowl will likely go through the SEC but Oregon remains the best hope to crash the party. However, there are other teams new to the rankings who could make a surprise entry. 

The PAC is Wack

Speaking of Oregon, is it possible to count Fresno State as a signature win? The Ducks were initially looked at sideways after beating the Bulldogs by a single touchdown in Week 1, but Fresno State shocked the nation this past weekend with a 40-37 win over No. 13 UCLA, who dropped down to No. 22.

Overall it was a bad week for the Pac-12, starting with Colorado, which came close to knocking off a top 5 team a week ago, getting shutout at home 30-0 by Minnesota. 

“That was a complete, I would say, beatdown in every way,” Colorado coach Karl Dorrell said.

On the plus side, Buffaloes linebacker Nate Landman continues to look like an NFL Draft prospect with his second consecutive 10 solo tackle game.

Utah became the second Pac-12 team to fall to San Diego State with a 33-31 overtime loss. The Aztecs previously dominated Arizona the week before. The Wildcats are so bad this season that after losing to FCS Northern Arizona for the first time since becoming a member of the Pac-12 a winless season is now a highly probable outcome. 

“It’s embarrassing,” said wide receiver Stanley Berryhill III, possibly Arizona’s only good player.

Arizona travels to Oregon this week to be the Ducks’ late night sacrificial lamb on ESPN. 

The Pac-12 now serves to prop up Oregon, who will now have to run the table in impressive fashion in order to have a chance at the playoffs. USC winning again and Stanford reestablishing itself with a dominating win over Vanderbilt has helped the Ducks’ potential playoff resume. 

BYU is for real

The primary purpose of BYU going independent a decade ago was to have control over the schedule and give itself a better chance to get noticed by the BCS/CFP panel. Not only do the Cougars finally have that schedule but are also good enough to take advantage of it. 

The Cougars started the season with three Pac-12 opponents and have cleaned the slate with a 27-17 win over No. 19 Arizona State, who fell off the rankings. 

With 561 passing yards and seven touchdowns, BYU quarterback Jaren Hall seems to be picking up right where Zach Wilson left off.

“We’re 3-0 against good opponents,” Hall said. “What more can you ask for?”

The Cougars have Boise State, Virginia and USC as notable games. A perfect season for BYU might be enough to get the Cougars to a New Year Six Bowl if not the playoffs. 

“WE ARE!”

Any time an SEC team loses a non-conference game, another conference gets its wings. 

Memphis stunned Mississippi State 31-29, Stanford beat Vanderbilt by a 41-23 blowout, and Penn State took down Auburn 28-20. 

With the win, Penn State is positioned in the Big Ten’s driver seat. While the Nittany Lions are expected to get through Villanova (this aint basketball) and Indiana with ease, their looming road matchup with Iowa will tell the story of the season for that conference. 

Iowa knocked off the Big-12’s second best team in the most consequential matchup between the Hawkeyes and the No. 14 Iowa State Cyclones in recent history. Defense is their identity, so when the two teams face off on October 9, it will have the makings of a classic SEC slugfest, which might help both their causes. 

OK Boomer Sooner

Oklahoma entered the season with the Heisman front runner and as a virtual lock to get into the playoff. While the Sooners are 3-0, as their supposed to be, two of their games have been too close to call. Both Tulane and Nebraska came within an arms reach of upsetting the Sooners, which have prompted the AP to penalize them in the rankings. 

This may potentially be a down year for the Big 12, which is going to soon experience a boom in added teams before eventually losing their founding members in OU and Texas. Theres a good chance that the Sooners run the table once again and the title game ends up being a Bedlam rematch but until then, more ugly victories could potentially keep OU out this season.

Tua Tagovailoa left on a cart with bruised ribs in the first quarter of the Dolphins' 35-0 loss to the Bills.

Pressure Point: Progress of Miami Dolphins’ rebuild suspect after demoralizing defeat

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This was always the biggest concern with this Miami Dolphins rebuilding project.

That Tua Tagovailoa would get hurt?

That’s always a possibility with any NFL quarterback — though it was a valid question with Tua when they drafted him given his injury history in college.

But the demoralizing aspect of the Dolphins’ 35-0 whipping in their home opener by the Buffalo Bills is the evidence it provided to this:

What if the Dolphins tear down their roster, build it back up with an abundance of draft picks, then when they think they’re playoff ready they discover they’re still not close to competitive with the best in their own division?

Because, man, was that ever obvious in Sunday’s debacle. The Dolphins aren’t in the same league with the Bills by any measure.

Truth is, the 1-1 Bills haven’t even played their best in their first two games. But they’ve won the past six meetings with the Dolphins.

Buffalo’s advantage in the past two (the 2020 finale and Sunday) is 91-26.

Dolfans have reason to feel gut-punched

The Dolphins, after eking out a win at New England let their fans down mightily with an inept and undisciplined showing in the home opener. But the punch to the gut for Dolfans is the likelihood that this is who they are right now against a top-tier team.

Most glaring was the ineptitude of the offensive line, which allowed six sacks.

It caused Tagovailoa to get knocked out early.

The Dolphins have invested seven draft picks in the line in the past three years. Yet this vital unit remains a liability. Adding to the woes, Jesse Davis, their most experienced lineman, went out with a knee injury Sunday.

How about the receiving corps, a supposed strength? DeVante Parker dropped a touchdown pass. Albert Wilson dropped a first down. Jakeem Grant fumbled.

Then their highly touted first-round pick, receiver Jaylen Waddle, fumbled away a punt just before the half — he had a couple drops as well.

The tally was three turnovers (the fumbles by Grant and Waddle and Jacoby Brissett also threw a pick) in the first half, which ended 14-0 and still within reach.

Miami had seven unproductive drives in the opening half, including two that ended with turnovers.

Xavien Howard saves Dolphins from gut-wrenching defeat in season opener at New England

Offense inept with or without Tagovailoa

The report on Tagovailoa is bruised ribs, so probably not a long-term injury. For now the offense is in the hands of Brissett, who looked like what he is: a serviceable backup.

The defense gave up touchdowns on the Bills’ first two possessions. That included a 46-yard scoring run by former Florida Atlantic running back Devin Singletary, who had a massive hole to run through.

It is the longest rushing touchdown the Dolphins have allowed in more than five seasons.

After playing respectably through the second quarter, the defense offered little resistance on a 75-yard touchdown drive in eight plays to open the second half. It unraveled from there.

Lopsided defeat reveals Dolphins’ shortcomings

The Bills ran right over the Dolphins with a 143-71 advantage on the ground.

Not to bail on the Flores/Grier regime after a 1-1 start. But this had the look of a lot more than a bad day.

Can’t help but question the progress of the so-called rebuild at this point in year three.

The Dolphins have been butting into a glass ceiling for two decades. They haven’t put a crack in the glass yet.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Goldie’s Picks: Play the Chargers, Bills, Bengals, more

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Goldie’s All Time Record: 135-61          Vs. Spread: 98-95

Goldie’s Week 1 Record : 9-6                 Vs. Spread: 9-6

Goldie’s Guarantee All Time: 10-5         21-22 Season: 1-0

Goldie’s Upset All Time: 10-4                 21-22 Season: 1-0

Crazy Uncle Jeff All Time: 17-2              21-22 Season: 1-1

 

Goldie’s Guarantee

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-0)

Vegas Picks: ARI -3.5

Goldie’s Take: Cardinals Win 31-21

Both of these teams showed the football world a lot during week 1. The Vikings showed us that they might not be as good as we thought, and the Cardinals showed us that they’re much better than we thought. Zona’ is the real deal this season on both sides of the football. Cards roll through the Vikes this weekend. I GUARANTEE IT!  

 

Goldie’s Upset of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) @ Chicago Bears (0-1)

Vegas Picks: CHI -2.5

Goldie’s Take: Bengals Win 24-22

Joey Burrow looked great last week coming off a terrible injury that ended his rookie year. A big momentum boost to come back and win that one in overtime last week over the Vikings. Burrow and the Bengals will have some swagger coming into this one, as the Bears look like they’re treading water. I’m still baffled by their decision to stick with Andy Dalton as the starting quarterback. He wasn’t even good when he was in his prime, and the redheaded QB hasn’t been relevant in years. He’s costing Chicago wins and not letting the rookie Justin Fields develop. I don’t get it. Bengals UPSET the Bears in the windy city!

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff Lock of the Week: GB -11

Detroit Lions (0-1) @ Green Bay Packers (0-1)

Vegas Picks: GB -11

Goldie’s Take: Packers Win 30-24

Crazy Uncle is doubling down on Green Bay after a rare miss last week! Jeffy has concluded that last week was nothing but a fluke, and the Packers are locked in and ready to put a hurting on the Lions this Monday night. Rodgers may have not totally been in it last week, but he’s sure to put on a show for the home fans. If there’s something you can always count on in this world it’s: Death, taxes, and the Lions losing in Green Bay

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff Lock of the Week: DAL +3.5

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)

Vegas Picks: LAC -3.5

Goldie’s Take: Chargers Win 27-24

Dak Prescott looked phenomenal in their last minute loss to the Bucs last Thursday. Jeffy thinks the Cowboys high powered passing game is going to be enough to avenge that loss with a big performance this weekend. However, I personally don’t they’re not going to win games until they figure out their run game. Zeke couldn’t get anything going in Tampa, and if that continues it’s going to be very difficult for the ‘Boys to stay competitive. Give me the Bolts in a close one. 

 

New Orleans Saints (1-0) @ Carolina Panthers (1-0)

Vegas Picks: NO -3.5

Goldie’s Take: Saints Win 26-21

NOLA had a serious statement win last week, blasting the Green Bay Packers 38-3. Carolina on the other hand, had a hard time putting away the Jets. The Panthers offense is too McCaffrey centric in my opinion and that tends to often be their downfall. Saints keep the train rollin’ with a win in Carolina this weekend.

 

Houston Texans (1-0) @ Cleveland Browns (0-1)

Vegas Picks: CLE -12.5

Goldie’s Take: Browns Win 35-19

Even though the Texans did look pretty good last week against the Jags, I feel they’ll come back down to earth this Sunday. Tyrod Taylor is going to have a much tougher time against the stingy Cleveland defense than he did against the Jags. Plus the Browns are looking to get back to .500 early in a season that has high expectations on them. Yes, you read that right, high expectations for the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland steamrolls the Texans in the Dawg Pound this Sunday. 

 

Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

Vegas Picks: Steelers Win 23-22

Goldie’s Take: PIT -6.5

Both of these squads pulled off impressive close upsets last week. In this one, I expect another close game controlled by defense. The Steelers defensive unit is no joke, evident last week by only allowing Josh Allen and the Bills 16 points. Although I think the line in Vegas is highly underestimating the Raiders, I do still expect the Steelers to win this one at home. Venue call. 

 

Buffalo Bills (0-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-0)

Vegas Picks: BUF -3.5

Goldie’s Take: Bills Win 35-20

As a Dolphins fan this pains me to write, but the bottom line is Miami has never been a good matchup for the Bills. The last time these two teams played, the Bills absolutely destroyed the Fins, knocking Miami out the playoffs in the process. Plus, the Bills are going to be coming for blood after getting upset by Pittsburgh last week. Bills by multiple scores. 

 

Los Angeles Rams (1-0)  @ Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Vegas Picks: LAR -4

Goldie’s Take: Rams Win 28-23

The Rams looked like a machine in their rout of the Bears last week, and they’ll try to bring that momentum right into this one as well. There isn’t a defense in the league that is stronger than the Rams, plus the addition of Matt Stafford seems to have the offense working pretty well too. Indy will put up a good fight at home, but in the end expect the Rams to prevail in this one. 

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Vegas Picks: SAN -3

Goldie’s Take: Niners Win 27-17

After getting up huge on Detroit last week, the Niners ALMOST dropped the ball and blew that game. I feel they’ll learn from the bullet they dodged last week, and do a better job of closing this one out. Also, the Niners D will do a much better job of containing Jalen Hurts than the Falcons did. Niners win this one on the road to improve to 2-0. 

 

Denver Broncos (1-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

Vegas Picks: DEN -6

Goldie’s Take: Broncos Win 26-17

This could be another long season for Jags fans as their week one matchup with Houston didn’t show many signs of life. The rookie QB and head coach tandem is still getting adjusted to the NFL, and it might take some time. Broncos win a snoozer. 

 

New England Patriots (0-1) @ New York Jets (0-1)

Vegas Picks: NE -6

Goldie’s Take: Pats Win 22-17

Bill Belichick is 22-7 in his career when facing a rookie starting quarterback. Expect that trend to continue this weekend as I can’t see the Pats losing 2 consecutive divisional games right off the bat. Defense rules and Pats get a gritty victory in Metlife this Sunday. 

 

Atlanta Falcons (0-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)

Vegas Picks: TB -12.5

Goldie’s Take: Buccaneers Win 31-20

The Atlanta Falcons are a mystery, and they’ve been mystery ever since I started last season with Goldie’s Takes. No doubt in my mind the Bucs are going to win this one, but I expect Matty Ice and the Falcons to at least cover the hefty point spread this Sunday. 

 

Tennessee Titans (0-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-0)

Vegas Picks: SEA -6

Goldie’s Take: Seahawks Win 35-31

I don’t think last week’s loss to Arizona is a true representation of the Tennessee Titans. They had a bad week all around, but it’s going to be tough having to follow up a bad week like that with a tough road game in a hostile environment. I think these two teams are pretty even on paper but Seattle’s home field gives the ‘Hawks a slight advantage. Seahawks in a venue call. LET RUSS COOK!

 

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (0-1)

Vegas Picks: KC -3.5 

Goldie’s Take: Chiefs Win 31-26

Mahomes versus Lamar on primetime is not one you’re going to want to miss. Expect a back and forth game throughout, but the Chiefs historically have been the more clutch team. Give me Patty and the Chiefs to win and cover this Sunday night. 

 

Dolphins

3 Bold Predictions for the Dolphins against the Bills

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The Miami Dolphins won in a nail biter against the New England Patriots in Week 1. Here are three bold predictions as the Dolphins face off against the Bills this Sunday.

Tua Tagovailoa balls out

Call me crazy, but I think Tua Tagovailoa will have flashes of brilliance against a talented Bills defense. Last week against the Patriots, Tagovailoa was average working through pressure and had some errant throws. Admittedly, he knows he needs to clean up some stuff. It was only Week 1 where everyone was rusty.

With all the criticism stemming from the offseason, Tagovailoa will need to silence his critics. It could come against the bills.

In an Offense designed for Tua and Tua only, he is comfortable knowing where he needs to throw the ball and who he needs to throw to. It is a timing based offense catered to his biggest strength. Timing and accuracy.

In a critical moment of the game, Tua checks out of the run play and throws a dart to DeVante Parker on a 1st and 14 to move the chains and close the game with a win.

Last year, he lacked the ability to signal his WRs to get out of bad plays, and he took the blame for that by saying it was because he didn’t know the playbook well enough. At a crucial point in the game, he signaled to get out of the bad play and put the ball into a position where only DeVante Parker could succeed.

From his former OC in Steve Sarkisian:

“Tua, very instinctual. He can make RPOs work. He’s the best signaler I’ve ever been associated with. This guy will signal things that didn’t even practice, but he’ll signal it, and it works.”

He will have several “gotta have it” moments against the Bills.

His Stat line: 350 Yards, 3 TDs.

Jevon Holland is the Josh Allen Killer

Jevon Holland played only 24 snaps and was the highest graded rookie per PFF, he had an 82.5 overall grade. I expect that to change against the Bills.

Buffalo comes into Miami with a potent aerial attack led by Josh Allen who haunts the Dolphins. Allen is 7-1  against Miami in his career.

However, Josh Allen struggled against Pittsburgh and looked like his old self in 2018 and 2019. The Steelers employed a heavy usage of two-safety looks and showing man coverage. Instead they played a lot of Cover 3 buzz and had safeties dropping into the middle of the field, not deep. This led to Josh Allen holding the ball longer, facing pressure and not converting his plays.

Miami’s corners handled the deep ball against the Patriots in Cover 3 and Tampa 2 but they have to face Stefon Diggs who can take passes to the house. Albeit, I believe Xavien Howard is equipped to handle Diggs.

The issue is that Miami’s LB corps cannot cover the middle of the field well, this is where Holland comes to play.

Minkah Fitzpatrick played a fantastic game as a deep and intermediate safety and did not allow players to get deep very often. Holland replaced Fitzpatrick, and is a better fit in Brian Flores’ scheme.

With over 800 career snaps in the slot, more than 300 as a free safety and 300 more in the box, Holland could be tasked in securing the Middle of the field and not allowing players to move upfield.

Josh Allen runs for over 100 yards

Josh Allen can destroy offenses with his arms and his legs. If Miami could do some of the same things Pittsburgh did, Allen could look to do some damage with his legs.

The Dolphins Defense have had issues with many Mobile QBs and Allen is the biggest name of them all.

If Miami is able to hold up in coverage but not put any Pressure on Allen, it will be a tricky day for the Defense as Allen can move the chain with his legs on critical third downs. Gassing the Defense.

His stat Line just running against Miami? 340 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs.

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Wherever he goes next, Goran Dragic should eventually reside in rafters

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Pat Riley has a habit of honoring the difference makers.  So much that he even graced Michael Jordan by retiring #23.  A player who — wore a different set of black, red and white while crushing the Heat on more than one occasion.

 

There was also the time the Heat hung Dan Marino’s #13 up in the rafters, even though his armor was cloaked in aqua and white, and his arena was a football field.  

 

The others Riley glorified are the pillars of the organization.  Alonzo Mourning, Tim Hardaway, Shaquille O’Neal, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade.  Additionally, there are three names also deserving, but nothing can be done for them yet because they are active players.  LeBron James is the “king of both coasts.”  Udonis Haslem is still barking invaluable instructions from the Heat bench.  Finally, Goran Dragić is a member of the Toronto Raptors. 

 

As far as Dragić and James, the Heat could never say anything publicly now due to the tampering headache that would hypothetically arise if they mentioned any plan to celebrate these two.  It’s inevitable that James gets his commemoration sometime when he’s retired, but the Dragon’s tale should always be remembered like myths carved in stone.  

 

The Dragon represented the Heat in the All-Star Game in 2018, and maintained that level of play whenever he was not burdened by injuries.  Dragić showed the ultimate allegiance to his former club.  His role shifted from being a captain and go-to scorer into the team’s sixth man and back again as a starter in the bubble.

 

Dragić has said the lineup change wasn’t easy when Coach Spoelstra suggested playing behind undrafted rookie Kendrick Nunn, but he handled it gracefully while excelling in his new mantle. Dragić possessed the emotional intelligence to allow Spo to tinker with the lineup during the 2020 regular season to maximize the group’s chances of winning later, and that’s a significant reason why the Heatles buried their eastern opponents. 

 

For three rounds in the bubble, Dragić was merciless on drives to the hole and shooting from the perimeter.  Miami’s lucky #7 was the squad’s leading scorer in the sweep over Indiana and in the eastern conference finals against Boston. 

 

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In Game 1 of the championship round, misfortune struck as Dragić tore the plantar fascia in his left foot, which sidelined him the next four games.  The lasting image of Dragić sobbing on the bench after his failed pregame warmup before Game 4 is ineradicable from memory.  He shouldn’t have tried to practice, but love for the game can cloud even the clearest minds.

 

The wounded Dragon made his courageous, albeit foolish, return to the court in Game 6, but the Heat got beat, and the Lakers were crowned champions.  

 

Dragić’s final year in Miami was the 2021 campaign in which the Heat never found their edge, amid a plague of injuries and size concerns.  The season ended in a sweep at the hands of a team (Bucks) who got pantsed by Miami in the bubble.

 

This summer, the Heat successfully pursued their latest white whale, Kyle Lowry. Yet, the indifferent Riley had to ship away Dragić and Precious Achiuwa to Toronto in a sign-n-trade to make the salaries work for both teams.

 

With less than three weeks until the start of training camp (Sept. 28), Lowry, who previously wore #7 in Toronto, still has not announced his jersey # for the Heat.  Considering the quality of player Dragić was during his time in Miami, and how he sacrificed his body for the club, it would be uncharacteristically tasteless for the Heat to give their new lead guard the same jersey # as their beloved Dragon.

 

One day #7 should hang in the rafters, but the back of the shirt should read Dragić, written in black.

 

 

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