JRod’s Corner: Giannis’ Win Brings Back Facetime Talk

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It seems like the talking heads on your favorite and maybe not so favorite sports outlets have been very concerned with who can and cannot be the face of a league.

Stephen A. Smith was lambasted for declaring that Angels phenom, Shohei Ohtani, could not be the face of Major League Baseball because he needs an interpreter. Cries of xenophobia rained down upon the pundit and he publicly apologized. While the lack of English may affect Ohtani’s marketing dollars, he is certainly the most popular player and the face of MLB with Fernando Tatis, Jr right behind him.

Now another commentator, Emmanuel Acho, says it is impossible for newly crowned NBA Champion, Giannis Antetokounmpo, to be the face of the NBA. Acho’s remarks were less anti-foreigner. Kinda.

Listening back to Acho’s segment — which Speak for Yourself has since deleted because the reaction was so negative — he says that to be the face of the NBA needs to be “relatable”. Really? What more relatable than the American dream? I guess Acho doesn’t view the NBA as an immigrant’s league. Antetokounmpo, who is from Greece, has been a twitter darling since his debut in 2013 posting about trying Kool-Aid, eating corn dogs and drinking smoothies for the first time.

But let’s get back to Acho’s “relatable” argument. He goes on to mention LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and Michael Jordan. They were the faces of the NBA because we knew their stories. The good, bad and ugly of it. And according Acho, we just don’t know much about Giannis.

At 26 years old, The Greek Freak has done it all in the NBA. Literally.

Five-time All-Star, two-time MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, NBA Champion, Finals MVP. He’s a Hall of Famer right now!

If Giannis keeps winning; we will know his stories. That’s why Bron, Kobe, Magic, Larry and MJ were the faces of the NBA and Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone and Charles Barkley were not. Championships.

Stephen A. and Emmanuel are cooking up hot takes. It’s their job. It’s show business. I get that. We’re going to seeing a lot more of Giannis. The endorsements are coming, the late-night TV shows, the books and even the movies. Ready or not it’s showtime meets facetime.

 

You can follow Jim Rodriguez at @JRodShow on Twitter and Instagram. 

 

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Can Mike Gesicki be a Top Five TE This Season?

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All eyes will be on Tua, but will his lock on Mike Gesicki this season?

 

Entering a crucial fourth year, Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki looks to take the leap into the discussion as one of the game’s best.

So what will it take to get there?

In order to gain some perspective, a comparison to the best current NFL tight ends seemed like a nice place to start

Travis Kelce and now Darren Waller have emerged as the top two tight ends, with George Kittle still right there after an abbreviated season due to injury.

What Waller and Kelce have in common is an enormous target share, as both posted nearly identical numbers.

Waller led all NFL tight ends with 146 targets in 2020, with Kelce just behind him at 145.

The next highest tight end targeted was Logan Thomas with 110, while just two others broke 100 targets -Evan Engram (109) and  T.J Hockenson (101).

Targets are just one part of the equation, what you do with them matters.

Kelce and Waller both hauled in over 72% of their targets in 2020, while Gesicki caught slightly over 62% of his.

Many factors contribute to this, whether it be different quarterbacks throughout the year or execution in other areas.

Nonetheless, there is plenty of room for improvement.

 

Let’s run some numbers.

Say Gesicki can accumulate 100 targets and improve his catch percentage even slightly to 68%.

That sets a floor of 68 receptions, which would be 15 more than Gesicki had in 2020.

Where Gesicki has already shown a high ceiling in comparison to other tight ends is in yards-per-reception.

Last year Gesicki ranked third among tight ends with 13.3 yards-per-reception, ahead of Waller (11.2) and Kelce (13.1).

With 68 receptions and at the same yards-per-reception, that would put Gesicki over 900 yards receiving.

Now with a 17-game slate, this seems even more attainable.

Gesicki tied for fifth among tight ends with six touchdowns, averaging one about every nine receptions.

Increased targets and improved catch percentage could see him at eight or even nine scores in 2021.

A stat line of 68/900/8 would all have been top five marks in the NFL last year.

Add an improved quarterback and more deep threats in Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller, Gesicki sits as a prime candidate for a breakout season.

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Xavien Howard reported to Miami Dolphins training camp but his contract demands remain unresolved.

Fresh Perspective: Top 5 Miami Dolphins to watch in training camp

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It’s always fun to play the prediction game. I’ve already predicted the Miami Dolphins 53-man roster on both offense and defense, and I’ve even offered a perspective on the top five training camp battles to watch as it inches ever closer. But there is still one topic that hasn’t been elaborated on yet. In the spirit of my YouTube show – “Pulse of Fins Nation” – I asked you, the audience, what player you wanted to watch more than anyone else in training camp.

Immediately I disqualified Tua Tagovailoa. Obviously, everyone wants to see what he’s going to do. If he doesn’t perform, it likely won’t matter what anyone else on the team does. There would be no point in asking the question without setting those parameters. Tagovailoa is without a doubt the most polarizing figure in Dolphins history since…the last franchise QB Miami had on their roster, Ryan Tannehill.

So if we’re doing a countdown of the top five Dolphins to watch in training camp are, Tagovailoa tops the list, no questions asked. That’s why for the purposes of this story, he’s being disqualified. It’s too easy. So here are the top five Miami Dolphins to watch – according to you, the audience – not named Tua Tagovailoa.

5. Myles Gaskin – RB

Considering how much emphasis was placed on the running back position during the offseason, it’s no surprise that people want to see what Myles Gaskin does with another year as the lead back. Granted, it’s assumed the Miami Dolphins will use a committee approach, but Gaskin will always get first crack at it. It’s his job to lose.

The number of people coming out of nowhere to defend Gaskin is remarkable. It wasn’t that long ago that Dolphins fans wanted desperately for the team to draft a fresh running back, like Najee Harris. Now, there’s no choice but to hope that a potentially improved offensive line will make Gaskin look much better than last season.

To play devil’s advocate, it’s not as if Gaskin is a bad running back. Far from it. He was a lot better than anyone expected him to be. In the ten games that he played, dealing with the reality of Covid-19 and an injured knee, Gaskin put together 972 total yards (584 rushing and 388 receiving) and five total touchdowns. Production was his claim to fame back in college, and that’s what he’s been doing in the pros. He’s not the fastest, not the strongest, not the most talented. However, he produces, just like he always has.

Everyone is waiting to see if an improved WR corps and offensive line will increase Gaskin’s level of production. He’s definitely an underdog type of player. He’s faced the possibility of being replaced several times throughout the offseason and he’s still standing. The coaching staff clearly has faith in him, camp will tell if that faith was well placed.

4. Xavien Howard – CB

Let’s make this abundantly clear right now. No one is suggesting that Xavien Howard needs to prove anything. He’s a top five cornerback in the NFL, a turnover machine that makes quarterbacks pay if they make a mistake. And, up until recently, he was the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history.

All these votes to see Xavien Howard in training camp are not referring to seeing him perform. They’re referring to seeing him show up to training camp in the first place. Howard’s holdout is well-documented at this point. For whatever reason, Howard is not happy with the Miami Dolphins. Is it the lack of remaining guaranteed money on his contract? Bruised ego due to the fact that his teammate Byron Jones is making more than he is? There’s no way to know for sure.

Only time will tell whether Howard decides to show up to training camp or not. If he does, then even if he plays disgruntled, Howard will play. Then the Dolphins can explore giving him more money later on after the salary cap stops being such a looming figure.

If he doesn’t show up, then there’s no question the defense will take a huge step back in 2021. That is, unless, another player steps up in a big way. More on that later.

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3. Jaelen Phillips – LB

Of all the rookies that the Miami Dolphins added to the roster this year, perhaps the one with the most upside of all is linebacker Jaelen Phillips out of the University of Miami. His history is well-documented. He briefly retired from football after all the injuries he suffered in college, but ultimately came back and singled himself out as a potentially elite pass rusher in the 2021 draft class.

It says a lot about a player that even with that injury history, a team still feels he’s worth drafting with the 18th overall pick. To put it in very simple terms, Phillips has a very good chance of becoming what Dion Jordan was supposed to be when the Dolphins drafted him 3rd overall in the 2013 NFL draft.

Strange how long ago that seems now.

Phillips is big, he’s fast, he can rush the passer and he can cover. He’s a perfect chess piece for Brian Flores to incorporate into the defense. His development will be crucial for the defense to take the next step into becoming the league’s most dangerous unit.

2. Jaylen Waddle – WR

Everyone knows what Waddle brings to the table. He is speed incarnate, and videos of how difficult he’s going to be to cover with the twitch he shows in route-running have fans salivating at the idea of watching Tua Tagovailoa throwing him the football again like the good ol’ days at Alabama.

Just like Phillips, Waddle is an extremely high-ceiling player, which seems to be the theme for the Miami Dolphins 2021 draft class as a whole. With the chemistry he has with Tagovailoa, Waddle projects to be an instant and regular contributor on offense. There’s also the distinct possibility that he’ll take the role currently held by Jakeem Grant as a kick and punt returner. Training camp will reveal a lot about the role the coaches have in mind for the rookie.

1. Noah Igbinoghene – CB

The number one player to watch in training camp is none other than Noah Igbinoghene. Make no mistake, this young player out of Auburn is the Miami Dolphins insurance plan for Xavien Howard. Based on what the reports are, he’ll need to be ready sooner rather than later. Howard seems to be making it a point to express he feels underpaid and underappreciated. Depending on who you ask, he’s either right or wrong. I, personally, don’t agree with Howard.

Nevertheless, Igbinoghene was drafted because of the high ceiling he presents. He may have struggled in his rookie season, but that’s to be expected with young cornerbacks. There’s always a learning curve, which varies in difficulty depending on the position. Cornerback is one of the hardest positions to transition from college to the NFL, and Igbinoghene is still very, very young.

His development has ramifications beyond this season. If Igbinoghene develops and turns into the type of player that coach Flores believes he can be, then the Dolphins won’t need to break the bank all over again to pay Howard and keep their elite secondary. They can trade Howard, get a ton more draft capital, and still have their plan intact. If he doesn’t develop, then Miami faces a scenario where they’ll have a disgruntled Howard who will essentially be able to demand a blank check whenever he wants. Maybe if they pay him a second time, he’ll calm down, but there’s no guarantee of that.

A lot is riding on Igbinoghene taking a huge next step in his second season. It’s no wonder why everyone is watching with baited breath.

Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for seven years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung

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Observations from inside the MLB All-Star Game

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While the very concept of the All-Star Game may seem outdated, MLB clearly has the best of the four major sports.

It’s been six years since I last attended the MLB All-Star Game. It’s the type of event that takes a place like Cincinnati and turns it into a happening place. An argument could be made that the 2015 All-Star Game that featured their flamethrower of a closer mowing down three of the best hitters in the rival league and the Home Run Derby won by the hometown star was the biggest sporting event to happen in that city since the Reds winning the World Series in 1990 — the year I was born.

Most cities had plenty of time in advance to prepare for All-Star Week. Denver was tasked with putting the event together in the first week of the season and did an amazing job with it. Any market with a downtown ballpark is ideal for maximizing the event that is the All-Star Game. It would be interesting to see what Los Angeles does with it next year after missing out last year.

The crowd at Coors Field represent a comeback after a year that had us all hiding in homes and being away from each other due to a viral pandemic, a year where we all wondered when we will get to enjoy the game we love once again. It was more than a capacity crowd. Everyone was in their seats, and in the rooftop bar, and in the team store, and waiting in line for overpriced food.

It was a Coors Field sellout combined with a typical Marlins crowd. It felt like 2019 never ended.

The national anthem was a beautiful spectacle, starting with one of the stars of Hamilton singing and punctuating with a flyover and firework show.

The Colorado Rockies only had one representative in the game but they fans did get to see Nolan Arenado return to Coors Field as the starting third baseman for the National League after forcing a trade to the St. Louis Cardinals this past offseason after a divorce with the outgoing front office.

“Colorado deserves this,” Arenado said after being serenaded by the fans who knew him for ruling the hot corner for eight years.

Fireworks pierced the sky immediately after the words “play ball” were ushered by one very lucky kid.

We have been waiting for this moment for a long time.

The All-Star Game is meant to be an opportunity to see great moments from the game’s best, starting with Shohei Ohtani, who was the leadoff hitter and starting pitcher for the American League, the first ever to do so. There’s nobody in baseball who has had a better season like Ohtani, who is leading baseball in home runs with 33 while sporting a solid 3.49 ERA with 20 more strikeouts than innings pitched. A perfect inning and a couple at-bats and his day was done.

Perhaps the biggest moment of the game was Vlad Guerrero Jr. hitting a home run ball that nearly cleared the left field stands. He is one of three father-son duos to play in the All-Star Game.

“Dreams come true,” Guerrero Jr. said through a translator after the game. “Since I was a kid, I was thinking about this moment. I’ve worked all my life very hard and a lot of it is happening right now.”

The Miami Marlins, despite a season of struggles, should have had more than only one player in the game. However, Trevor Rogers was a good choice to rep the Marlins. The rookie leads all first-year players in ERA (2.31), innings (101 1/3) and strikeouts (122). He is certainly a shoo-in to win the National League Rookie of the Year.

“It’s something that we really dream of as a kid and growing up,” Rogers said, “here with the best guys in the world.”

While the game seemed like another lopsided American League victory, all anyone wants in a game like this is for the losing team to have a chance. It is even made all the more sweeter if your guy is the one to play the hero. 

That wasn’t the case for Marlins fans but if you were a Chicago Cubs fan, Kris Bryant was your guy. With the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth inning, Bryant hits a Matt Barnes fast ball to left field. It would’ve certainly been a game changer had it not been for a sliding catch by Jared Walsh to end the inning. 

In the end, a Japanese player started the game, an Australian closed it out and a Dominican won the MVP, all while representing the American League. Baseball is truly a global game. 

Dolphins Win Cardinals

Reasons to be Excited about Tua Tagovailoa’s Second Season

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Depending on who you talk to, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa either broke well past expectations for his rookie year, or he flopped harder than Jamarcus Russell did for the Raiders. So what can Dolphins fans expect in year 2? Will we see Tua take that leap and become an elite level QB in the league? Or will we see Tua descend into QB purgatory, and see the Dolphins back in the market? I believe Tua will rise to the challenge and become one of the top level QB’s in the league. 

 

  1. Tua’s Hip is Healthy

While Tua was in his final season of college at Alabama, he suffered a couple pretty serious injuries. He suffered a high-ankle sprain on October 19 against Tennessee. While that injury typically takes more than 6 weeks to heal properly, Tagovailoa was able to rehab and get back on the field in time to play his heart out in a home loss to LSU. The following week, the unthinkable happened. Tua, rolling left, got tackled awkwardly and dislocated his hip. 

In a bang-bang play, Tua suffered what’s become known as the Bo Jackson injury. After being rushed into surgery and having to be very tentative with his hip, Tua was expected to make a full recovery. But what exactly did this mean? 

As someone who has also suffered that dreadful injury, I can share that a full recovery is almost completely impossible with an injury like that. It takes about a year to fully recover from it, and Tua was trying to workout, throw, and run drills 5 months afterwards. We were already halfway through the NFL season, and Tua starting, by the time he should have been fully recovered from the injury. 

 When asked about his hip injury over 2 years ago, Tua said, “My hip feels ten times better than it did last year. I feel very confident coming into my second year”

Last offseason, Tua was trying to rehab a potentially life threatening injury while trying to dive into the playbook and get accustomed to NFL speed. This offseason, Tua has been able to focus more on getting a full grasp of the playbook and offensive schemes, developing chemistry with his receivers. 

 

2. Tua’s Got New Toys

Last season, the Dolphins offense ranked 20th in passing yards/game, and 15th in points/game (ESPN). Out of 32 teams, the Dolphins ranked below average, and just barely above average in two important areas when it comes to passing the ball. Now it’s a little hard to be stellar when your number 2 receiving option in Albert Wilson opts out due to COVID-19 and your deep threat in Jakeem Grant suffered so many drops and, unfortunately, was unable to remain on the field. So what did the Dolphins do to try to bolster their passing game this offseason? They went out and got Will Fuller and drafted Jaylen Waddle. 

Fuller, who was the deep threat option for Houston, ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at the combine in 2016. He was also PFF’s 9th highest graded receiver during his 2020 breakout campaign. Through 11 games, he hauled in 53 passes for 879 yards and 8 TD’s. Fuller also caught 70.7% of his passes, which was the highest in the league last season. 

Jaylen Waddle on the other hand, was hauling in passes from a fellow first rounder at Tua’s old stomping grounds: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. 

Waddle was a highly sought after recruit who ended up deciding to join a stacked receiving corps at Alabama. As the 4th option during his freshman season, it was actually his most productive season at Alabama. Hauling in 45 catches for 848 yards and 7 TD’s, Waddle was able to find his numbers despite sitting behind 3 future first rounders. His sophomore campaign was also very productive, at 33 catches for 560 yards with 6 TD’s. Waddle was poised for his best season yet in 2020, with the top 2 options ahead of him heading to the NFL Draft, and posting 591 yards with 4 TD’s through 6 games, although he suffered a near season ending injury in a road game at Tennessee. Waddle fought his way back for the National Championship game though, and despite being hobbled by a clearly not fully ready ankle, Waddle was still a core peice to that Alabama offense. 

 

3. Tua’s Experienced 

Last offseason, Tua was a rookie, who was coming off a major career threatening injury, was trying to learn a playbook, dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic and protocols, as well as trying to adjust to the speed of the NFL. All that, for Tua to still start by mid season and carry the Dolphins almost to a playoff berth. Now, Tua has experience with NFL defenses and real time game speed. He learned under Ryan Fitzpatrick, and was able to watch how to command a 4th quarter offense without having to deal with the fire storm that is the 4th quarter of a close game in the NFL.

It’s Time to Bet On (and In) Florida

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The state of Florida is at the center of the football universe. Not just because Tom Brady and the Tampa Buccaneers are defending Super Bowl Champions, or the Jacksonville Jaguars will be debuting their shiny new quarterback chosen with the first pick in the NFL Draft or the Miami Dolphins can be relevant for the first time in a generation. Not even the passionate fan base of their college football squads can match the hype surrounding this season. Florida is the belle of the “foot-ball” because legalized sports betting is coming. Ready, set, hike!

In May of this year, state lawmakers approved a gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe allowing legalized sports gambling. This would include old school brick and mortar walk up windows at Seminole casinos and a digital component with servers being located on tribal land for on-line wagers. It is a potential windfall for the Sunshine State as the compact would net Florida $2.5 billion in the first five years of the deal from the Seminoles. The deal still needs federal approval and already has opponents.

The Seminoles can choose to work with up to three on-line gambling platforms as part of the compact but two major outlets: DraftKings and Fan Duel have funded a separate political committee, Florida Education Champions, to legalize sports betting in the entire state and not have to deal exclusively with the Seminoles. This would open the door to not just on-line betting, but wagering at sports venues, other casinos, racetracks, just about anywhere in the state. Imagine the potential of filling your gas tank and laying a bet on the game. They are hoping to have that on the November 2022 ballot.

According to this page here, we could see Florida legalizing sports betting later this year. While it likely won’t be launched in time for the start of the NFL season, at least Florida residents can start signing up online. Once the bill passes legislation, it won’t be long till sports betting officially launches.

So, in South Florida, it’s good time to start prepping for the Dolphins 2021 season.  The team rollercoastered to a 10-win season shattering their expected win total of six and finishing one win shy of a playoff appearance.  It’s Tua Tagovailoa’s team now with Ryan Fitzpatrick in Washington and Tua has plenty of weapons through the air with DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki and rookie Jaylen Waddle.  I’m still not sold on the ground game something that could keep them from hitting this season’s over/under total of nine. The season features a tougher schedule for Miami with opponents from the NFC South (Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers, Falcons) and AFC South (Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Texans). There are also games with the Raiders and Giants, and a short week Thursday night game against the Ravens, to go with the usual home-and-home sets with the Bills, Jets and Patriots.
Miami doesn’t get its first bye until after Week 13, so health could be a major factor, especially with the added 17th game this season.
I see a 9-8 finish, once again just short of the playoffs.

Whether it’s Dolphins, Buccaneers or Jaguars, what does all this mean  for sports investors in the third largest state in the U.S by population? Legalized sports gaming is coming, and it will be here if all goes to plan, for this football season. More two dozen states have some form of legalized sports gaming. Florida is in the Red Zone and nearly across the goal line. So the real question is: are you ready for some football?

 

You can follow all of Jim Rodriguez’s picks at @JRodShow on Twitter.

 

Ranking Every Miami Heat Free Agency Target: Part 3

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A look at who Miami should or shouldn’t look to sign and how they’d fit on the roster moving forward.

Welcome to the final installment of the Miami Heat Free Agency series. In case you missed any of the first two parts, check them out before reading part three. I went over ball-handlers in Part 1 here and wings in Part 2 here. For today’s final piece to the offseason puzzle, I’ll be looking at Frontcourt options. Last season Miami could never find that right player to start alongside Bam until Trevor Ariza did an admirable job on such short notice. The team had to also wait until the buyout acquisition of Dewayne Dedmon to get any semblance of a solid backup after Precious Achiuwa hit the rookie wall at 100 miles an hour.

Frontcourt Options:

Miami will hope not to swing and miss so hard this offseason the same way they did with the Harkless signing last year. I mentioned plenty of options in the previous installment that could fit into the PF spot — but I’ll stick to guys who played the four more throughout their careers. There is still a contingent of Heat fans (including a specific front office member) who say Bam should play the 4, and I don’t necessarily disagree with that assessment. It all depends on the type of 5 you’re getting. You certainly can’t have a big man like Dedmon who isn’t a considerable threat to shoot anymore. It all depends on the player and how much Bam develops his outside game. Without further ado, let’s get into some free agents.

John Collins (RFA, Hawks own Bird Rights)

Age: 24

Fit: 9/10

Reliability: 9/10 (reminder that this is in terms of health)

Attainability: 1/10

Half-Upside/Half-Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 8.5/10

John Collins is the one player Heat fans want to pair along with Bam for the rest of their careers. A power forward that can play the 5 or even the 3, depending on the lineups. He can shoot from 3 at a respectable percentage on good volume and is also in the same age group as Adebayo. On the surface, it’s the perfect fit. While I think the fit would be pretty good offensively and even somewhat workable defensively, there are some worries. Collins is still prone to get pushed around by stronger players on the defensive and offensive end. You could see how much he struggled with guys like PJ Tucker, Jrue Holiday, and Giannis Antetokounpo. That can be addressed with some offseason core workouts and getting his base much more robust.

There’s also the part of his offense where he tries to do too much. Collins needs to stop trying to post-up guys as much as he does. It’s more than welcome when it’s a mismatch, but there were many moments throughout the playoffs where it was hard to watch. He would settle for a lot of tough mid-range jumpers that he would hit on occasion. I think his face-up game is something he should spend more energy on building. He’s much quicker than PJ Tucker but never once attempted to go into the triple threat position.

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I’ve called John Collins the Offensive Version of Aaron Gordon, which can be a bad thing or good depending on how you look at it. Both are players best suited for the PF spot in today’s game. They can try doing more than they’re capable of and are prone to disappearing from time to time. Is John Collins worth the investment you’d have to make to acquire him? That’s the question of his entire Free Agency. For the Atlanta Hawks, it’s a much easier answer considering the timeline, age, and their cap room. For a team like Miami, it’s considerably tougher. Collins will more than likely be out of their price range, and they’d have to think about waiting for an eventual Hawks match that might take up quite a bit of time in Free Agency. That time is precious is Free Agency, and Miami would get left at the altar settling as everyone around them gets cuffed up.

Richaun Holmes (UFA)

Age: 27

Fit: 2/10

Reliability: 7.5/10

Attainability: 5/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 5/10

Richaun Holmes has always been one of my favorite players in the league, dating back to his early Sixers days. Holmes worked his way through the end of the bench into a solid starting center using his great diving to the rim, energy, and unstoppable push floater. The guy has carved out a role that few saw coming in his Process Sixers days. This role might be a bit tricky to plug into Miami, however. Holmes is very much a traditional center that can get played off the floor by stronger 5s due to being undersized. He’s not quite mobile or enough of a shooting threat to fit into current NBA lineups.

The price Holmes will be looking at getting in his first big Free Agency is not much in the Heat’s window. Unless he were to take another mid-level type of deal to become a backup, this engagement seems very unlikely.

Lauri Markkanen (RFA)

Age: 24

Fit: 4/10

Attainability: 5.5/10

Upside Player

Overall Rating: 2/10

Once thought to be the centerpiece of the Jimmy Butler trade that got him to Minnesota, Lauri has fallen off quite a bit. Having Jim Boylen for a year of his development didn’t do him any favors. His relationship with the Bulls and their fans has been a contentious one at best. He’s looked like a new Finnish version of Andrea Bargnani becoming a 7-foot tall shooting guard. His defense is still mediocre at best while not having much versatility on either end.

You can talk yourself into tapping into that potential seen in his first few seasons, but it would depend on the cost. It won’t be complicated to pry him away from the Bulls, who seem done with his services. I expect him to get scooped up by a rebuilding team looking to grab a player on the cheap to unleash whatever untapped talent remains.

JaMychal Green (PO, UFA if declined)

Age: 31

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 8.5/10

Attainability: 8/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

While JaMychal Green may not be the flashiest name, I think he’s the type of player Miami should look to grab if they use big money (wink Kyle Lowry) elsewhere. Since his last Grizzlies season, he’s been a solid PF and has adapted his style to the modern game while maintaining his toughness reputation. His defense is solid, and he isn’t too bad in space. I’m thinking more big picture with Green as a free agent. I predict the team will invest money in backcourt help and wing versatility, which opens the door for affordable PFs like JaMychal.

The only problem I see is his player option and desire to settle down. He could look to stay on a contender like Denver and sign a long-term deal. If not, Miami should be at his door to fill out the roster.

Jarrett Allen (RFA)

Age: 23

Fit: 3/10

Reliability: 9/10

Attainability: 1/10

Upside Player

Overall Rating: 4/10

While I may be a huge fan of Allen, he’s not the type of big Miami should be looking to acquire. He’s a young player that will get more offered from teams that don’t have a Bam Adebayo at their disposal. Allen is purely a rim running big that has shown great potential as a paint deterrent. Again, this would look a lot different if Bam’s best position was the PF spot, like so many seem to think. There’s also the big RFA in front of his name that’ll likely keep him in Cleveland. Now, maybe there’s a different player you could grab from Cleveland this offseason.

Paul Millsap (UFA)

Age: 36

Fit: 6/10

Reliability: 4.5/10

Attainability: 7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 5/10

It wouldn’t be a Miami Heat offseason if there weren’t the possibility of a Paul Millsap signing. However, this season feels a little different than even last year did. The veteran Power Forward is another year older and has taken a step back regarding his shooting and overall role, which is why his fit rating isn’t as high as I would have had it in years past. He won’t be as much of a target by Miami and the rest of the teams looking for frontcourt help. Look for him later on in Free Agency for the mini-mid level or even the vet minimum. Millsap is a depth piece at this point of his career instead of starting PF on a contending team.

Serge Ibaka (PO, UFA if declined)

Age: 32

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 4/10

Attainability: 4/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 7/10

Ibaka was a target of the Miami Heat’s last free agency, which left them without a decent PF/C. While Ibaka’s ability as a player that can switch every possession isn’t there anymore, he’s still decent at showing at the level of the screen in drop coverages. His shot-blocking may not be what it used to be, but the threat remains on opposing players’ minds. Serge is the type of Center you can play alongside Bam and even stagger their minutes around each other.

The big worry for Ibaka is his ability to stay on the floor regarding his health. He’s had some lingering issues the past few seasons that could scare teams away. It could also scare Ibaka into picking up his player option. Remaining in LA for 9mil and a possible run at a championship isn’t the worst road to take.

 

For the last time, we’ll be going into some rapid-fire options. This free agency class is shallow at frontcourt (much like the Heat), so the names might get weird from here on out.

Otto Porter Jr: A bargain bin option for the Heat shall they find themselves looking to fill out the roster. While the shooting has stayed, the same can’t be said for his defensive mobility. Porter Jr has lost a considerable amount of his step on that end of the floor, and it’s more than noticeable. Still, not a bad bench piece to add in the PF department for spot minutes.

Daniel Theis: The former Celtics player and Bam equivalent, according to some, makes an intriguing free agent. I don’t expect Miami to look his way much unless he suddenly got better at shooting or took on a bench role for cheap. I expect him to be back in Chicago more than Lauri considering how he played after the Vucevic trade.

Kelly Olynyk: The Maple Man himself will more than likely be out of Miami’s price range as he’s looking to get a payday plus a starting role. The Heat have already been down that road, and it’s unlikely they go there again.

Bobby Portis Jr: Portis’s case is very similar to that of JaMychal Green. It all depends on how the rest of the roster is filled, but he’s not a bad option once everything is clear. There could be quite a market for him, and he could get more lucrative deals elsewhere.

Dewayne Dedmon: I think Dedmon’s showing last season gave the Heat a reason to bring him back on a team-friendly deal. Miami looked hard for a decent backup big after Olynyk left, and they were very fortunate to have acquired Dedmon off the street. I don’t think anyone would mind another season together.

James Johnson: The former Heat player is coming off a decent stint in Minnesota and an uneven season split in Dallas and New Orleans. While he’s still too inconsistent from deep to be considered for a starting role — having him come off the bench isn’t a bad idea. He’ll more than likely only cost the veteran minimum as well. The relationship he had with the organization is more of what would give pause to everyone involved.

PJ Tucker: Tucker is in the same sort of range as James Johnson. They’ve both still got the defense and won’t be asking for too much on the open market. Miami has had interest before, and I wouldn’t put it past them to have some dialogue at the end of Free Agency if he were still available.

Markieff Morris: I’ve seen Markieff’s name pop up a decent amount in terms of targets, and I don’t get the appeal. Morris hasn’t been the shooter his brother is and tends to ball-stop without giving much offense in return. He’s certainly not a starting-caliber player and should get the minimum if he were to join the Heat.

Zach Collins: The other Collins entering restricted free agency suffered a foot fracture yet again a week ago that’ll likely end his tenure in Portland. I don’t see Miami buying low on Collins as he would waste a roster spot for the majority, if not all, of the upcoming season.

Dwight Howard: I’ll let Udonis Haslem answer that.

Hassan Whiteside: I’ll give my thoughts as soon as I stop laughing.

Andre Drummond: See, above.

Khem Birch: I think Khem will get a pretty good haul for himself this summer, considering where he was last season. I don’t think it will be with the Heat, however. If Miami hadn’t seen what it has in Dedmon, this would be a different story.

Mo Wagner: Now we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel. Miami did show interest this past season, but unless he’s German National Team Mo, I don’t see it happening.

Taj Gibson: Gibson plays the most 90s-like out of anyone still in the NBA. He proved to be a decent backup big, but I think he’ll be back in New York much like Dedmon will be with Miami.

Blake Griffin: Eric Reid’s favorite player will look to chase that ring that eluded him this past season. He was on the Heat’s radar as a buyout option but ultimately chose to go to Brooklyn. I expect him to return to the Nets, as I think the Heat’s priorities will be elsewhere on the roster.

Thanks to everyone who read all three parts of this series as Free Agency fast approaches. Hopefully, it’ll be one that’ll set up for a fun 2021-22 season. Let’s enjoy the Finals and immediately start photoshopping players onto Heat jerseys after. As if you ever stopped.

 

For Part 1, click here.

For Part 2, click here.

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

Along with Rogers, two other Miami Marlins should be All-Stars

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Trevor Rogers is the most deserving among the Miami Marlins to be named a National League All-Star but he should not be the only one. 

When a team like the Marlins is 12 games under .500 this late into the season, it’s understandable for them to only have the mandatory one rep, but the fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of the worst teams in baseball, has twice as many All-Stars is a travesty. 

Statistically speaking, an argument can be made for Marlins outfielder Adam Duvall and first baseman Jesus Aguilar making the NL All-Star team. 

Duvall currently leads the National League in runs batted in with 60, and is also fourth in home runs with 19. If that is not good enough to make the All-Star team then what is? 

Sure, he has 86 strikeouts, a .230 batting average and a .767 OPS, but if that’s good enough for Texas Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo (20 HR, 46 RBI, .233 BA), who is on the American League All-Star team as a reserve, then it should be good for Duvall. 

Duvall is certainly more deserving than Los Angeles Dodgers outfielders Chris Taylor (10 HR, 42 RBI, .268 BA, .828 OPS) and Mookie Betts (10 HR, 31 RBI, .247 BA, .810 OPS), who got in as reserves based on name recognition and team affiliation. Aguilar is the only Marlin to have played more games (78) than Duvall (73). He has been the anchor of the lineup ever since arriving to Miami a year ago. 

Aguilar leads all NL first baseman in RBI with 53. With 13 home runs, he is on-pace to finish with 25 HR and over 100 RBI, which is similar to his breakout season in Milwaukee in 2018. 

Outside of Atlanta Braves’ Freedie Freeman, who was voted in as a starter by the fans, Dodgers slugger Max Muncy is the only reserve first baseman. Muncy has five more home runs and his .974 OPS blows the entire Marlins roster out of the water. 

At the very least, Aguilar should be on the final vote ballot. 

Pablo Lopez (2.97 ERA) and Sandy Alcantara (2.96 ERA) are certainly worthy of making the All-Star team, but 2021 has been a very good year for National League starting pitchers. Only German Marquez has a higher ERA than the Miami duo and as the Colorado Rockies’ lone All-Star, he pretty much has to be on the team. 

Pitchers are usually selected to fill the quota and make sure that every team has a rep. Starters who pitch on the Sunday leading up to the All-Star Game have their roster spot replaced, while still being honored and enjoying the festivities. 

So there is still a chance that Rogers isn’t alone in Denver on All-Star Week.

Ranking Every Miami Heat Free Agency Target: Part 2

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A look at who Miami should or shouldn’t look to sign and how they’d fit on the roster moving forward.

Welcome back to all the Miami basketball fanatics who can’t get enough transaction talk. If you missed the first part of this series where I covered ball-handlers, make sure to read it here before diving into part two. It’s shaping up to be an exciting summer of moves from a handful of teams. Miami will undoubtedly be a mover and a shaker after the way last season left a bad taste in everyone’s mouths. So let’s talk about some wings that are out there to alleviate that bitterness.

Wings:

No, we’re not talking about wings you’d get at a sports bar. Instead, this section will be about the vital commodity that never goes out of style in the NBA. It may have seemed the Heat had a plethora of wings at their disposal over the past couple of seasons, but that was simply a mirage. The wings they had were either too small for certain lineups or only adequate at one end of the floor. Yet, you watch as the teams currently fighting in the Conference Finals have an endless basket of wings they can put on the floor. The best teams all year had wings that we’re able to give their coach flexible lineup options.

The good news is that Miami should be looking to add wings for Coach Spoelstra to work with next season. The bad news is that the options in the Free Agency class are minimal. However, we’re going to go through all the available options today, starting with an excellent one.

Kawhi Leonard (PO, UFA if PO declined):

Age: 30

Fit: 10/10

Reliability: 7/10

Attainability: 2/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 10/10

It’s the summer of players whose initials are KL and played in Toronto. Much like with the other KL, Miami would very much enjoy the services of Kawhi. The playoffs have shown how important it is to have a “bucket-getter” in moments when the offense gets bogged down. These moments demand a player who can take the ball and get to his spots at any given time, especially when those spots are in the mid-range where defenses concede most of their shots. The only downside is his recurring health issues that have his reliability at 7 for this exercise. Honestly, it feels a little high to even have him at that.

You would think Kawhi would be the perfect match. Well, the major hold-up in this potential marriage would be Leonard’s seemingly unbreakable bond with playing in his hometown. It’s tough to read what goes on in most players’ minds, but Kawhi is like trying to read a Cyrillic book without glasses. I don’t think he’ll leave unless something drastic were to happen in the coming weeks. He was close to a finals appearance if not for an injury, and I’m sure he thinks there’s unfinished business. But I will remind everyone that he did want to play with Jimmy Butler in LA before settling for Paul George.

Tim Hardaway Jr (UFA):

Age: 29

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 9/10

Attainability 5/10

Win-Now Player (slight hint of upside)

Overall Rating: 7/10

A name that is very familiar for the South Florida Faithful since the 90s. The name ring a bell, but the playstyle of the man they call THJ is vastly different than his father. While Tim Hardaway Sr. turned into a pretty good shooter in his own right, he was never the sharpshooter his son has turned into. Hardway Jr. has made an argument that he was the core piece dealt in the Knicks-Mavericks Porzingis trade. While I’ve seen some people clamor to bring the prodigal son home, I’m still not entirely convinced. Hardaway Jr. has been a very up and down player throughout his career, and for the second time in a row, he’s performed best when in a contract year.

I’d be very cautious of asking for a semi-one-dimensional player who is adequate on defense but would demand a lot of money. If that’s the case, I’d rather bring back Duncan Robinson, to whom you’d at least hold the bird rights. On the other hand, paying Tim Hardaway Jr. nearly 24 million a year would be a shaky proposition.

Evan Fournier (UFA):

Age: 28

Fit: 4/10

Reliability: 7.5/10

Attainability: 7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 4.5/10

Another name Heat fans should be familiar with, even if the memories are unsavory. Having an RSHK sign in Miami has worked out before with the likes of Wayne Ellington. The difference is that Wayne didn’t cost much, and Fournier would demand a much higher payday. But, outside of the money, I’m not a fan of the fit as a whole. While the former Magic guard does well in secondary creation, he’s very prone to ball-stopping and falling in love with his own shot. He also gives back most of his points on the defensive end due to his size and lack of strength. He’s very much a Plan E type of guy in free agency. I would look out for him if his market were to shrink, and he’d have to settle for a mid-level type of deal.

Kelly Oubre Jr. (UFA)

Age: 25

Fit: 6/10

Reliability: 6/10

Attainability: 7.5/10

Half-Upside/Half-Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 6.5/10

Kelly Oubre went through a season that perfectly encapsulated his career up to this point. Looking like a disaster at the beginning, followed by patches of really nice two-way play. He can drive a fanbase crazy with his peaks and valleys and on-court decision-making. Miami can talk themselves into bringing out the best version of an enigmatic SF/PF the same way they did James Johnson. The price here is a huge indicator if this marriage is possible. I definitely wouldn’t be opposed to a buy low bid for his services the same way Johnson was signed. The market should dictate how much Miami is willing to pursue Oubre. Do Heat fans want another up and down player named Kelly on the team? The Kelly-Coaster Part 2 does have a nice ring to it.

Will Barton (PO, UFA if declined):

Age: 30

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 5.5/10

Attainability: 6/10

Win Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

I’ve always been a fan of the man they call “The Thrill” since his Portland days. He’s always been a competitor and, by all accounts, a great teammate. He can give you a basket if needed and knows how to work with a skilled big man. There are times where he can throw up some very ill-advised jumpers that’ll drive you crazy, but that nickname is there for a reason. At the same time, I may be overstating his ability to break down defenders; there’s noticeable injury history that comes with it. His price will also depend on how much value he holds to teams more desperate at the wing position. But if the price is right, he’d fit right in with the system in place or a different system altogether should things change.

Trevor Ariza (UFA):

Mar 29, 2021; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30) defends against Miami Heat forward Trevor Ariza (8) at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mike Stobe/POOL PHOTOS-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 36

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability 7/10

Attainability: 9/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 7/10

We’ve reached our first Heat player, and the ratings may seem a bit weird to everyone reading this. Let me explain; these are the rating IF Ariza is willing to take on a minimal deal and role. A small mid-level or a veteran’s minimum deals are the ideal scenarios. Ariza was a seamless fit into what Miami could have asked for from a mid-season plug and play starter. However, he should only be brought back on the basis that he’ll be playing off the bench and taking on the Iguodala role. His body is probably at the point where he can’t play long stretches at the 4 anymore. Anything past a bargain price will likely be goodbye to Mr. Ariza.

Norman Powell (PO, UFA if declined):

Age: 28

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 9/10

Attainability: 2/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

Much of what I said about Will Barton can be repeated for Norman Powell. They’re very similar players in that they can be as ignitable as they are prone to droughts. At the same time, Norm does have an edge regarding staying healthy and defensive abilities. Powell’s size can hurt against teams featuring bigger lineups. He’s best used as a 2 but has shown an ability to guard up for small stretches. The major hurdle will be the asking price and the Blazers not wanting to lose him for nothing. Those obstacles will more than likely put this possible partnership on hold this summer.

Duncan Robinson (RFA, Heat hold Bird Rights):

PORTLAND, OREGON – FEBRUARY 09: Duncan Robinson #55 of the Miami Heat reacts during the final seconds of play in the fourth quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers during their game at Moda Center on February 09, 2020 in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Age: 27

Fit: 9/10

Reliability: 9.5/10

Attainability: 9/10

Win-Now Player with some upside

Overall Rating: 8/10

Our next Heat player has caused plenty of debate dating back to the middle of February. Should you pay Duncan? Is his cap hold worth bringing back? As is the case with most of the wings on this list, it all depends on the price and what other moves are made alongside. I think Duncan is an incredible shooter that can be schemed out of playoff series like many one-dimensional shooters before him. He still has plenty to improve on, and maybe that potential is enticing enough to sign for 18 million a year. To me, it’s about what other moves would be made in addition to a possible 15-18mil a year deal. If that’s the only big move you’re making, it’s a failed offseason.

It’s going to be interesting to see which way Miami operates with a player that seems to be the focal point of their offense at times (sometimes to their detriment.) There is also the possibility Duncan can be used in a sign-and-trade scenario to acquire a player(s) that would improve the rest of the roster. To me, he is a luxury, as most sharpshooters have proven to be if the roster around him is good enough. Miami must make their roster better to unleash his luxury or risk more of the same stagnation.

Nicolas Batum (UFA):

Age: 32

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 7/10

Attainability: 7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 9/10

No one could have imagined Batum returning to his Portland form after such a chaotic tenure in Charlotte. He became the perfect wing for the Los Angeles Clippers in an instant. Sliding into his role perfectly as the connecter on offense and a solid defensive player with intuitive rotations and pre-rotations. Batum has shown a willingness to play the 4 if asked, and his age isn’t as much of a red flag as you’d think. Depending on how Miami fills out the roster at the top, they should keep an eye on Batum’s price. He might have played himself out of both Miami and Los Angeles’s price range, but he’s worth being alert for.

Josh Hart (RFA):

Age: 26

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 8/10

Attainability: 3/10

Win-Now Player with some upside

Overall Rating: 9/10

If “plug and play” had a face, it would be a large picture of Josh Hart smiling. He fits on to so many rosters, including Miami’s. He’s a solid enough shooter, a pretty good defender, and he does all the little things you need from your role players. He’s a younger version of Batum in this sense. He can play small spurts at the 4 but is best used as a 3 and even a big 2 guard. His two-way ability makes it that he is an easy plug alongside Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.

The obvious large hurdle for Miami is Hart’s restricted free agency. New Orleans has been said to love Hart and wants to keep him there for the long term. Miami’s only hope is that between now and August 2nd that the relationship sours quite a bit.

 

You know what time it is — it’s the rapid-fire segment! You might see a few familiar names here and there.

Alec Burks: It should be interesting to see what sort of deal Burks demands in the market. He’s a microwave-type scorer and can give some excellent bursts of offensive basketball. I don’t think he’ll settle for a low-level deal and should fetch something from a team looking for bench scoring.

Jeff Green: Jeff has made a career of being a solid wing player that knows his role and is willing to adapt to the role the teams need. He’s been on minimum deals for the past handful of years and would be worth a look.

Justise Winslow: It would be surprising if Memphis were to pick up his option, and that’s not something anyone saw coming 2 years ago. I wouldn’t mind a buy-low deal for the former player, but it’s hard to see Miami and Winslow reuniting after a messy breakup still fresh on both minds.

Kent Bazemore: Bazemore can be quite an infuriating player. If you pulled your hair out at Mario Chalmers, you’d pull your skin out with Kent. He should be a smart veteran player, but he does not live up to the billing.

Solomon Hill: Bring back the legend on a minimum deal!

Wayne Ellington: It’s still surprising how Detroit didn’t trade or waive Ellington at the deadline last season, considering his contract situation. Nevertheless, teams looking for cheap shooting off the bench will be looking at the former Heat player. Both parties left on good terms and have had nothing but praise for one another since their split. I don’t think anyone would mind a vet minimum reunion.

Alex Caruso: A solid backup guard who plays excellent defense will always garner interest from Miami. The Lakers might be keen on retaining Caruso, but there will be plenty of eyes on his situation in the final few days of free agency.

Doug McDermott: Doug has quietly turned himself into an excellent paint scorer. He shot 67.7% on 5 attempts a game on shots within 5ft. For comparison, Luka Doncic was at 66% on 4.8 attempts. He’s always been a pretty good shooter, so if Robinson were to leave or get traded, McDermott would be a decent cheaper backup.

Andre Iguodala: Yeah, I don’t think Andre’s coming back. He’s definitely a Plan Z guy, and I imagine he’ll get a deal in Golden State to retire into the San Francisco Sunset.

Reggie Bullock: Another Wayne Ellington type of player with a bit more size. I imagine he’ll have some loyalty to NY due to his best year coming with the Knicks.

Torrey Craig: A Sioux Falls Skyforce legend would definitely not be a bad pickup for cheap. He’s a nice piece off the bench that had a good bounce back in Phoenix after a rough go at it in Milwaukee. He’s always been a good energy guy who can knock down a corner 3 and would be a younger Ariza-like option.

Tyler Johnson: Let’s list off another former Heat player for the fun of it. A reunion for a small deal with Tyler wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Tyler’s always been a great teammate, and his shooting has gotten better since his last few Heat years.

 

Thanks again for reading Part 2 of the Free Agency series. I’ll be back to cover the frontcourt options of the class next week as we inch closer to August 2nd.

 

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Assessing nine Miami Dolphins draft moves in Hindsight

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There are fewer things in the sports that highlight relative unfairness quite like the NFL Draft. Rather than front offices judging players on their tape of playing the game, players’ draft stock can rise or fall by how well they move around cones in their boxer briefs. The tables are then turned as front offices have their picks immediately graded by media pundits before the selections can even take the field to prove their value.

Making matters worse for front offices is everyone’s ability to look back years later and provide 20/20 hindsight of what should’ve been done in the projection period. Fans can look back and dream of possibilities of what could have been if their team had only selected Player B instead of Player A.
The Miami Dolphins are in the same boat as the other 31 teams in feeling pain with this exercise. For the purpose of this column, I looked back at the Dolphins’ drafts since the turn of the millennium. I ranked the nine most painful first round draft picks for the Dolphins in hindsight, considering who else was on the board at that time. In order to be reasonable, I only looked at first round-for-first round swaps, as saying, “the Dolphins should’ve taken Tom Brady in the first round in 2000 instead of allowing him to fall to the sixth” is asking a herculean amount from a front office.
9. 2020 Who they took: USC OT Austin Jackson 18th overall
Who they could have taken: LSU WR Justin Jefferson 22nd overall
 
Now, this is without question the most unfair one on the list. Each player has only played one season, and Jackson has only been legally able to drink alcohol for 10 months. Jackson had a bit of a rocky first year, but given his age, his recovery from a bone marrow transplant, and the difficulty of the position, there is little reason to believe he cannot develop into an offensive tackle worthy of the 18th pick.
What makes this one tough is Jefferson was at a position of need, and would have immediately made Tua Tagovailoa’s transition to the NFL smoother. He also was one of only two rookies to make the Pro Bowl, and set the NFL record for receiving yards by a rookie with 1,400.
Adding salt to the wound is the hypothetical that if Miami did take Jefferson in 2020 and chose to address OT early in 2021 (the inverse of how it played out positionally), they would have Jefferson and Penei Sewell instead of Jackson and Jaylen Waddle. History will tell us which pairing has the better NFL careers, but for now, it’s hard not to wish Jefferson was in the Miami receiving corps.
8. 2004 Who they took: Miami (FL) OT Vernon Carey 19th overall after trading a fourth-rounder to Minnesota to move up from 20
Who they could have taken: Miami (FL) NT Vince Wilfork 21st overall
 
The late Eddie Jones did not have to travel far to make his first round selection, going down the road to Coral Gables to grab Hurricanes tackle Vernon Carey. The lifelong Miami native who is now a high school coach in the area served well in his eight years with the Dolphins, playing both tackle spots as well as right guard. While eight years is not as long as Miami hoped when they selected Carey, what lands him on this list is the player taken two selections later.
Jones had the right school and right idea with a tackle, but needed to look to the other side of the ball for the Hurricanes. Wilfork ended up with the cross-division rival New England Patriots and was a first-team All-Pro, three-time second-team All-Pro, five-time Pro Bowler, two-time Super Bowl champion, and figures to find himself enshrined in Canton one day.
The middle of the Dolphins’ defensive line in 2004 featured Tim Bowens and Larry Chester, both players who played their last seasons of football that fall. Adding Wilfork to a front seven that featured Jason Taylor, Adele Ogunleye, Zach Thomas, and Junior Seau would have been fearsome. The fact that he had to go to Foxboro from right down the road makes it all the more sour.
7. 2001 Who they took: Wisconsin CB Jamar Fletcher 26th overall
Who they could have taken: Miami (FL) WR Reggie Wayne 30th overall
 
Sticking with the Hurricane theme, this one is particularly painful. Fletcher lasted just three seasons in Miami before being dealt to the San Diego Chargers. He played a total of nine seasons in the NFL with five teams, and never made a Pro Bowl or had more than three interceptions in a season.
Wayne, on the other hand, has been nominated for the Pro Football Hall of Fame after 14 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts that saw him make six Pro Bowls. He had 82 regular season receiving touchdowns in Indy, which is exactly as many as Dolphins all-time leader in receiving touchdowns Mark Clayton had in his career.
What makes this one most puzzling is team need at the time. At receiver, Miami was relying on Oronde Gadsden and Leslie Shepherd. Meanwhile, at cornerback, the Dolphins had Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison, both in their mid-20s. The need was definitely at receiver, and that proved itself over time. It should be pointed out that Purdue quarterback Drew Brees went two picks after Wayne at pick 32.
6. 2008 Who they took: Michigan OT Jake Long 1st overall
Who they could have taken: Boston College QB Matt Ryan 3rd overall
 
Long was an exceptional player in Miami. He was with the Dolphins for five seasons, and made four Pro Bowls. Unfortunately, he experienced back and biceps injuries before turning down an extension and electing to move on to St. Louis. His injury problems only worsened as he twice tore his ACL and also tore his achilles, forcing him into an early retirement. If injuries had not gotten in Long’s way and the Dolphins were able to keep him in free agency, the sky would have been the limit for the former Michigan Wolverine.
The pain point here of course is Ryan. Miami has not been able to find a long-term solution at quarterback since the retirement of Dan Marino. Ryan, by all indications, could have been that in South Florida. The 2016 MVP is entering his 14th season and will play for his fourth head coach, remaining the lone constant in Atlanta. He is 113-92 as a starter, thrown for 7,443 yards and 347 touchdowns, made five Pro Bowls and six trips to the playoffs.
Offensive tackle is arguably the second-most important position on a football field. The reason it is so high, though, is because it is used to protect what is the most important position in sports: quarterback. Maybe Ryan would not have fit in with offensive philosophies from some of Miami’s head coaches in this time, but his longevity in Atlanta makes you wonder if the Dolphins could have had their man under center for a decade-plus.
5. 2012 Who they took: Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill 8th overall
Who they could have taken: Boston College LB Luke Kuechly 9th overall or South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore 10th overall
 
Tannehill has proven to be a pretty good quarterback. That’s especially true when you consider he made a Pro Bowl in 2019, and the quarterbacks selected above him (Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III) are not currently on NFL rosters due to Luck’s early retirement and Griffin’s injury history. Unfortunately for Miami, Tannehill was never that for the Dolphins. It took trading him and a sixth-rounder to Tennessee for a fourth-rounder for the ex-Aggie to reach his potential.
It’s rarely a bad idea to take a quarterback in the draft when you are in dire need of one. It’s when you see 10 future Pro Bowls go off the board in the first round after Tannehill that stings. Kuechly was a five-time first-team All-Pro and Defensive Player of the Year and went the very next pick. Gilmore has also been a Defensive Player of the Year, made two first-team All-Pro teams, and is terrorizing receivers for the Patriots. After those two, you also see Fletcher Cox (14th), Melvin Ingram (18th), Chandler Jones (21st), and Dont’a Hightower (25th) among others.
4. 2013 Who they took: Oregon DE Dion Jordan 3rd overall after trading a second-rounder to Oakland to move up from 12
Who they could have taken: Clemson WR DeAndre Hopkins 27th overall
 
This is a historically bad draft. Seriously, go look at it. To stick with the theme of the draft, Jordan was a historically bad selection especially when you consider Miami traded a second rounder to move up to take him. Jordan was only with Miami for four seasons, totaling just 3.0 combined sacks in his first two years before missing the next two after off-the-field issues. He has not been much better in the four seasons since, combining for 10.5 sacks for the Seahawks, Raiders, and 49ers.
Philadelphia Eagles left tackle Lane Johnson was picked fourth, right after Jordan, and made three Pro Bowls. It’s Hopkins, however, that really would have been the right selection in hindsight. He would have been on the board still at 12, and was just the second receiver taken, so despite grabbing his 15 spots ahead of where he actually went, it would not have been an overdraft.
Brian Hartline and Davone Bess were the leading receivers for the Dolphins the year prior with the former having a 1,000-yard season only to be followed up by another 1,000-yard campaign in 2013. Bess was replaced after 2012 with Steelers wideout Mike Wallace, who last just two seasons in Miami, leaving the same time as Hartline.
Hopkins has been nothing short of a monster in his NFL career. He’s made three first-team All-Pro teams, and two second-team All-Pro nods. Consistently one of the most dangerous receivers in football, Hopkins would have been an absolute asset in South Florida.
3. 2007 Who they took: Ohio State WR Ted Ginn Jr. 9th overall
Who they could have taken: Ole Miss LB Patrick Willis 11th overall or Pittsburgh CB Darrelle Revis 14th overall
 
Now we are getting to the “I want to puke” part of the list. Ginn was coming off a foot injury from his time in Columbus, and many Dolphins fans were furious the furious that general manager Randy Mueller did not take Brady Quinn, who wound up going 13 picks later to Cleveland. It turns out the fan sentiment was right, but the reasoning was off.
Ginn spent three years with the Dolphins, catching five touchdown passes, running for two, and returning three more. Since then, he has been a bit of a journeyman, changing teams six times and is currently a free agent. Though he never missed any games in Miami with injury, he never lived up to his billing, either.
Meanwhile, in the six picks that followed Ginn, four of them made Pro Bowls. Willis went 11th, Marshawn Lynch went 12th, Revis went 14th, and future Dolphin Lawrence Timmons went 15th. Having a player like either Willis or Revis would have been very beneficial to a team that ended up going a league-worst 1-15.
Miami had Joey Porter and Channing Crowder at outside linebacker, but Derrick Pope in the middle. Willis did not have the longest career, retiring after just eight seasons and battling a nagging toe injury in his final campaign. He did make the most of his time in the league, making the Pro Bowl in his first seven seasons en route to becoming a member of the 2010s All-Decade Team.
Revis was also a member of that All-Decade team, and became familiar to Dolphins fans as a lockdown corner for the Jets and Patriots, among others. He had Michael Lehan and Will Allen staring at him in the cornerback room, something the seven-time Pro Bowler could have easily overcome. Star Island is nice, but Revis Island would have been better.
2. 2017 Who they took: Missouri DE Charles Harris 22nd overall
Who they could have taken: Wisconsin OLB TJ Watt 30th overall
 
The two players had similar backgrounds coming into the league as Harris stood 6’3 and had 9.0 sacks in his final year at Mizzou, while Watt stood 6’4 and totaled 11.5 for the Badgers in 2016. That is when the two took vastly different career arcs.
Harris started just eight games in three years for Miami, accumulating 3.5 sacks combined. He was then shipped north to Atlanta for a seventh-round pick, not exactly top value for a young former first-round pass rusher. He had three sacks for the Falcons, before they let him go sign with Detroit. If he cannot further those sack numbers for the Lions, his next move may be north again to the CFL.
Watt on the other hand has started 62 of a possible 64 games for the Steelers, amassing 49.5 sacks and 59 TFL. He had a tall billing to live up to given his older brother JJ’s success in Houston, but has been equally as disruptive. He’s made the Pro Bowl in each of the last three years, including two first-team All-Pro campaigns. The Falcons and Cowboys each took pass rushers between Harris and Watt in 2017, and no doubt they join the Dolphins in feeling sick to their stomachs overlook Watt.
1. 2005 Who they took: Auburn RB Ronnie Brown 2nd overall
Who they could have taken: Cal QB Aaron Rodgers 24th overall
 
I mean, come on, who else? This pick again is not about who Miami took, but rather who they didn’t take. Brown rushed for 5,391 yards, mostly with the Dolphins, and was an integral part of the Wildcat offense that led to the 2008 division title. He made one Pro Bowl, played 10 years in the league, and was by all accounts, a solid running back.
Of course, a solid running back does not equal one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. It’s seemingly impossible for a running back to match a quarterback’s value, even when the positional charts were slightly different in 2005 than they are today. Yes, Rodgers was taken 22 picks after Brown, but he was very much in play for the 49ers at No. 1 overall.
San Francisco direly needed a quarterback, and eventually opted for Utah QB Alex Smith, who went on to a pretty good career in the NFL. Rodgers, in turn, slid and slid with players like Erasmus James, Alex Barron, and Fabian Washington all going before him. It’s not like the Dolphins could not use a franchise quarterback themselves. They had a QB room of Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels.
If teams viewed the quarterback position like they do today, or hell 2011 when four quarterbacks went in the first round including Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder, Miami would have almost certainly chosen whomever San Francisco did not take at one. That would leave them with Rodgers, who has won a Super Bowl, three MVP trophies, been elected to nine Pro Bowls, and will undoubtedly find himself as a first ballot Hall of Famer.
This pick is far different than the others before it on this list. It does not just change the Dolphins in the immediate future from 2005. It doesn’t just change the Dolphins for the next decade-and-a-half like it did the Packers. It would have changed the complexion of an era in the NFL.
Rodgers is not a system quarterback, he’s a transcendent one. If he was in Miami beginning in 2005 instead of Green Bay, do the Patriots still win the 13 AFC East titles, six AFC titles, and three Super Bowls they’ve won since then with Rodgers in the division? Does Brett Favre still go to the Jets and Vikings, or does he retire in Wisconsin? Does Miami build from its illustrious past and win the Super Bowls Marino deserved, but with Rodgers at the helm?
It’s enough to keep you up at night. There’s really no other choice for Miami fans but to bury this one deep and never bring it up again. The other eight scenarios on the list are season-changing, but this one could have erased the mediocrity that has been Dolphin football the last 16 years before it even happened.
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