It’s Time to Bet On (and In) Florida

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The state of Florida is at the center of the football universe. Not just because Tom Brady and the Tampa Buccaneers are defending Super Bowl Champions, or the Jacksonville Jaguars will be debuting their shiny new quarterback chosen with the first pick in the NFL Draft or the Miami Dolphins can be relevant for the first time in a generation. Not even the passionate fan base of their college football squads can match the hype surrounding this season. Florida is the belle of the “foot-ball” because legalized sports betting is coming. Ready, set, hike!

In May of this year, state lawmakers approved a gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe allowing legalized sports gambling. This would include old school brick and mortar walk up windows at Seminole casinos and a digital component with servers being located on tribal land for on-line wagers. It is a potential windfall for the Sunshine State as the compact would net Florida $2.5 billion in the first five years of the deal from the Seminoles. The deal still needs federal approval and already has opponents.

The Seminoles can choose to work with up to three on-line gambling platforms as part of the compact but two major outlets: DraftKings and Fan Duel have funded a separate political committee, Florida Education Champions, to legalize sports betting in the entire state and not have to deal exclusively with the Seminoles. This would open the door to not just on-line betting, but wagering at sports venues, other casinos, racetracks, just about anywhere in the state. Imagine the potential of filling your gas tank and laying a bet on the game. They are hoping to have that on the November 2022 ballot.

According to this page here, we could see Florida legalizing sports betting later this year. While it likely won’t be launched in time for the start of the NFL season, at least Florida residents can start signing up online. Once the bill passes legislation, it won’t be long till sports betting officially launches.

So, in South Florida, it’s good time to start prepping for the Dolphins 2021 season.  The team rollercoastered to a 10-win season shattering their expected win total of six and finishing one win shy of a playoff appearance.  It’s Tua Tagovailoa’s team now with Ryan Fitzpatrick in Washington and Tua has plenty of weapons through the air with DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki and rookie Jaylen Waddle.  I’m still not sold on the ground game something that could keep them from hitting this season’s over/under total of nine. The season features a tougher schedule for Miami with opponents from the NFC South (Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers, Falcons) and AFC South (Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Texans). There are also games with the Raiders and Giants, and a short week Thursday night game against the Ravens, to go with the usual home-and-home sets with the Bills, Jets and Patriots.
Miami doesn’t get its first bye until after Week 13, so health could be a major factor, especially with the added 17th game this season.
I see a 9-8 finish, once again just short of the playoffs.

Whether it’s Dolphins, Buccaneers or Jaguars, what does all this mean  for sports investors in the third largest state in the U.S by population? Legalized sports gaming is coming, and it will be here if all goes to plan, for this football season. More two dozen states have some form of legalized sports gaming. Florida is in the Red Zone and nearly across the goal line. So the real question is: are you ready for some football?

 

You can follow all of Jim Rodriguez’s picks at @JRodShow on Twitter.

 

Ranking Every Miami Heat Free Agency Target: Part 3

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A look at who Miami should or shouldn’t look to sign and how they’d fit on the roster moving forward.

Welcome to the final installment of the Miami Heat Free Agency series. In case you missed any of the first two parts, check them out before reading part three. I went over ball-handlers in Part 1 here and wings in Part 2 here. For today’s final piece to the offseason puzzle, I’ll be looking at Frontcourt options. Last season Miami could never find that right player to start alongside Bam until Trevor Ariza did an admirable job on such short notice. The team had to also wait until the buyout acquisition of Dewayne Dedmon to get any semblance of a solid backup after Precious Achiuwa hit the rookie wall at 100 miles an hour.

Frontcourt Options:

Miami will hope not to swing and miss so hard this offseason the same way they did with the Harkless signing last year. I mentioned plenty of options in the previous installment that could fit into the PF spot — but I’ll stick to guys who played the four more throughout their careers. There is still a contingent of Heat fans (including a specific front office member) who say Bam should play the 4, and I don’t necessarily disagree with that assessment. It all depends on the type of 5 you’re getting. You certainly can’t have a big man like Dedmon who isn’t a considerable threat to shoot anymore. It all depends on the player and how much Bam develops his outside game. Without further ado, let’s get into some free agents.

John Collins (RFA, Hawks own Bird Rights)

Age: 24

Fit: 9/10

Reliability: 9/10 (reminder that this is in terms of health)

Attainability: 1/10

Half-Upside/Half-Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 8.5/10

John Collins is the one player Heat fans want to pair along with Bam for the rest of their careers. A power forward that can play the 5 or even the 3, depending on the lineups. He can shoot from 3 at a respectable percentage on good volume and is also in the same age group as Adebayo. On the surface, it’s the perfect fit. While I think the fit would be pretty good offensively and even somewhat workable defensively, there are some worries. Collins is still prone to get pushed around by stronger players on the defensive and offensive end. You could see how much he struggled with guys like PJ Tucker, Jrue Holiday, and Giannis Antetokounpo. That can be addressed with some offseason core workouts and getting his base much more robust.

There’s also the part of his offense where he tries to do too much. Collins needs to stop trying to post-up guys as much as he does. It’s more than welcome when it’s a mismatch, but there were many moments throughout the playoffs where it was hard to watch. He would settle for a lot of tough mid-range jumpers that he would hit on occasion. I think his face-up game is something he should spend more energy on building. He’s much quicker than PJ Tucker but never once attempted to go into the triple threat position.

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I’ve called John Collins the Offensive Version of Aaron Gordon, which can be a bad thing or good depending on how you look at it. Both are players best suited for the PF spot in today’s game. They can try doing more than they’re capable of and are prone to disappearing from time to time. Is John Collins worth the investment you’d have to make to acquire him? That’s the question of his entire Free Agency. For the Atlanta Hawks, it’s a much easier answer considering the timeline, age, and their cap room. For a team like Miami, it’s considerably tougher. Collins will more than likely be out of their price range, and they’d have to think about waiting for an eventual Hawks match that might take up quite a bit of time in Free Agency. That time is precious is Free Agency, and Miami would get left at the altar settling as everyone around them gets cuffed up.

Richaun Holmes (UFA)

Age: 27

Fit: 2/10

Reliability: 7.5/10

Attainability: 5/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 5/10

Richaun Holmes has always been one of my favorite players in the league, dating back to his early Sixers days. Holmes worked his way through the end of the bench into a solid starting center using his great diving to the rim, energy, and unstoppable push floater. The guy has carved out a role that few saw coming in his Process Sixers days. This role might be a bit tricky to plug into Miami, however. Holmes is very much a traditional center that can get played off the floor by stronger 5s due to being undersized. He’s not quite mobile or enough of a shooting threat to fit into current NBA lineups.

The price Holmes will be looking at getting in his first big Free Agency is not much in the Heat’s window. Unless he were to take another mid-level type of deal to become a backup, this engagement seems very unlikely.

Lauri Markkanen (RFA)

Age: 24

Fit: 4/10

Attainability: 5.5/10

Upside Player

Overall Rating: 2/10

Once thought to be the centerpiece of the Jimmy Butler trade that got him to Minnesota, Lauri has fallen off quite a bit. Having Jim Boylen for a year of his development didn’t do him any favors. His relationship with the Bulls and their fans has been a contentious one at best. He’s looked like a new Finnish version of Andrea Bargnani becoming a 7-foot tall shooting guard. His defense is still mediocre at best while not having much versatility on either end.

You can talk yourself into tapping into that potential seen in his first few seasons, but it would depend on the cost. It won’t be complicated to pry him away from the Bulls, who seem done with his services. I expect him to get scooped up by a rebuilding team looking to grab a player on the cheap to unleash whatever untapped talent remains.

JaMychal Green (PO, UFA if declined)

Age: 31

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 8.5/10

Attainability: 8/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

While JaMychal Green may not be the flashiest name, I think he’s the type of player Miami should look to grab if they use big money (wink Kyle Lowry) elsewhere. Since his last Grizzlies season, he’s been a solid PF and has adapted his style to the modern game while maintaining his toughness reputation. His defense is solid, and he isn’t too bad in space. I’m thinking more big picture with Green as a free agent. I predict the team will invest money in backcourt help and wing versatility, which opens the door for affordable PFs like JaMychal.

The only problem I see is his player option and desire to settle down. He could look to stay on a contender like Denver and sign a long-term deal. If not, Miami should be at his door to fill out the roster.

Jarrett Allen (RFA)

Age: 23

Fit: 3/10

Reliability: 9/10

Attainability: 1/10

Upside Player

Overall Rating: 4/10

While I may be a huge fan of Allen, he’s not the type of big Miami should be looking to acquire. He’s a young player that will get more offered from teams that don’t have a Bam Adebayo at their disposal. Allen is purely a rim running big that has shown great potential as a paint deterrent. Again, this would look a lot different if Bam’s best position was the PF spot, like so many seem to think. There’s also the big RFA in front of his name that’ll likely keep him in Cleveland. Now, maybe there’s a different player you could grab from Cleveland this offseason.

Paul Millsap (UFA)

Age: 36

Fit: 6/10

Reliability: 4.5/10

Attainability: 7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 5/10

It wouldn’t be a Miami Heat offseason if there weren’t the possibility of a Paul Millsap signing. However, this season feels a little different than even last year did. The veteran Power Forward is another year older and has taken a step back regarding his shooting and overall role, which is why his fit rating isn’t as high as I would have had it in years past. He won’t be as much of a target by Miami and the rest of the teams looking for frontcourt help. Look for him later on in Free Agency for the mini-mid level or even the vet minimum. Millsap is a depth piece at this point of his career instead of starting PF on a contending team.

Serge Ibaka (PO, UFA if declined)

Age: 32

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 4/10

Attainability: 4/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 7/10

Ibaka was a target of the Miami Heat’s last free agency, which left them without a decent PF/C. While Ibaka’s ability as a player that can switch every possession isn’t there anymore, he’s still decent at showing at the level of the screen in drop coverages. His shot-blocking may not be what it used to be, but the threat remains on opposing players’ minds. Serge is the type of Center you can play alongside Bam and even stagger their minutes around each other.

The big worry for Ibaka is his ability to stay on the floor regarding his health. He’s had some lingering issues the past few seasons that could scare teams away. It could also scare Ibaka into picking up his player option. Remaining in LA for 9mil and a possible run at a championship isn’t the worst road to take.

 

For the last time, we’ll be going into some rapid-fire options. This free agency class is shallow at frontcourt (much like the Heat), so the names might get weird from here on out.

Otto Porter Jr: A bargain bin option for the Heat shall they find themselves looking to fill out the roster. While the shooting has stayed, the same can’t be said for his defensive mobility. Porter Jr has lost a considerable amount of his step on that end of the floor, and it’s more than noticeable. Still, not a bad bench piece to add in the PF department for spot minutes.

Daniel Theis: The former Celtics player and Bam equivalent, according to some, makes an intriguing free agent. I don’t expect Miami to look his way much unless he suddenly got better at shooting or took on a bench role for cheap. I expect him to be back in Chicago more than Lauri considering how he played after the Vucevic trade.

Kelly Olynyk: The Maple Man himself will more than likely be out of Miami’s price range as he’s looking to get a payday plus a starting role. The Heat have already been down that road, and it’s unlikely they go there again.

Bobby Portis Jr: Portis’s case is very similar to that of JaMychal Green. It all depends on how the rest of the roster is filled, but he’s not a bad option once everything is clear. There could be quite a market for him, and he could get more lucrative deals elsewhere.

Dewayne Dedmon: I think Dedmon’s showing last season gave the Heat a reason to bring him back on a team-friendly deal. Miami looked hard for a decent backup big after Olynyk left, and they were very fortunate to have acquired Dedmon off the street. I don’t think anyone would mind another season together.

James Johnson: The former Heat player is coming off a decent stint in Minnesota and an uneven season split in Dallas and New Orleans. While he’s still too inconsistent from deep to be considered for a starting role — having him come off the bench isn’t a bad idea. He’ll more than likely only cost the veteran minimum as well. The relationship he had with the organization is more of what would give pause to everyone involved.

PJ Tucker: Tucker is in the same sort of range as James Johnson. They’ve both still got the defense and won’t be asking for too much on the open market. Miami has had interest before, and I wouldn’t put it past them to have some dialogue at the end of Free Agency if he were still available.

Markieff Morris: I’ve seen Markieff’s name pop up a decent amount in terms of targets, and I don’t get the appeal. Morris hasn’t been the shooter his brother is and tends to ball-stop without giving much offense in return. He’s certainly not a starting-caliber player and should get the minimum if he were to join the Heat.

Zach Collins: The other Collins entering restricted free agency suffered a foot fracture yet again a week ago that’ll likely end his tenure in Portland. I don’t see Miami buying low on Collins as he would waste a roster spot for the majority, if not all, of the upcoming season.

Dwight Howard: I’ll let Udonis Haslem answer that.

Hassan Whiteside: I’ll give my thoughts as soon as I stop laughing.

Andre Drummond: See, above.

Khem Birch: I think Khem will get a pretty good haul for himself this summer, considering where he was last season. I don’t think it will be with the Heat, however. If Miami hadn’t seen what it has in Dedmon, this would be a different story.

Mo Wagner: Now we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel. Miami did show interest this past season, but unless he’s German National Team Mo, I don’t see it happening.

Taj Gibson: Gibson plays the most 90s-like out of anyone still in the NBA. He proved to be a decent backup big, but I think he’ll be back in New York much like Dedmon will be with Miami.

Blake Griffin: Eric Reid’s favorite player will look to chase that ring that eluded him this past season. He was on the Heat’s radar as a buyout option but ultimately chose to go to Brooklyn. I expect him to return to the Nets, as I think the Heat’s priorities will be elsewhere on the roster.

Thanks to everyone who read all three parts of this series as Free Agency fast approaches. Hopefully, it’ll be one that’ll set up for a fun 2021-22 season. Let’s enjoy the Finals and immediately start photoshopping players onto Heat jerseys after. As if you ever stopped.

 

For Part 1, click here.

For Part 2, click here.

 

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Along with Rogers, two other Miami Marlins should be All-Stars

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Trevor Rogers is the most deserving among the Miami Marlins to be named a National League All-Star but he should not be the only one. 

When a team like the Marlins is 12 games under .500 this late into the season, it’s understandable for them to only have the mandatory one rep, but the fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of the worst teams in baseball, has twice as many All-Stars is a travesty. 

Statistically speaking, an argument can be made for Marlins outfielder Adam Duvall and first baseman Jesus Aguilar making the NL All-Star team. 

Duvall currently leads the National League in runs batted in with 60, and is also fourth in home runs with 19. If that is not good enough to make the All-Star team then what is? 

Sure, he has 86 strikeouts, a .230 batting average and a .767 OPS, but if that’s good enough for Texas Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo (20 HR, 46 RBI, .233 BA), who is on the American League All-Star team as a reserve, then it should be good for Duvall. 

Duvall is certainly more deserving than Los Angeles Dodgers outfielders Chris Taylor (10 HR, 42 RBI, .268 BA, .828 OPS) and Mookie Betts (10 HR, 31 RBI, .247 BA, .810 OPS), who got in as reserves based on name recognition and team affiliation. Aguilar is the only Marlin to have played more games (78) than Duvall (73). He has been the anchor of the lineup ever since arriving to Miami a year ago. 

Aguilar leads all NL first baseman in RBI with 53. With 13 home runs, he is on-pace to finish with 25 HR and over 100 RBI, which is similar to his breakout season in Milwaukee in 2018. 

Outside of Atlanta Braves’ Freedie Freeman, who was voted in as a starter by the fans, Dodgers slugger Max Muncy is the only reserve first baseman. Muncy has five more home runs and his .974 OPS blows the entire Marlins roster out of the water. 

At the very least, Aguilar should be on the final vote ballot. 

Pablo Lopez (2.97 ERA) and Sandy Alcantara (2.96 ERA) are certainly worthy of making the All-Star team, but 2021 has been a very good year for National League starting pitchers. Only German Marquez has a higher ERA than the Miami duo and as the Colorado Rockies’ lone All-Star, he pretty much has to be on the team. 

Pitchers are usually selected to fill the quota and make sure that every team has a rep. Starters who pitch on the Sunday leading up to the All-Star Game have their roster spot replaced, while still being honored and enjoying the festivities. 

So there is still a chance that Rogers isn’t alone in Denver on All-Star Week.

Ranking Every Miami Heat Free Agency Target: Part 2

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A look at who Miami should or shouldn’t look to sign and how they’d fit on the roster moving forward.

Welcome back to all the Miami basketball fanatics who can’t get enough transaction talk. If you missed the first part of this series where I covered ball-handlers, make sure to read it here before diving into part two. It’s shaping up to be an exciting summer of moves from a handful of teams. Miami will undoubtedly be a mover and a shaker after the way last season left a bad taste in everyone’s mouths. So let’s talk about some wings that are out there to alleviate that bitterness.

Wings:

No, we’re not talking about wings you’d get at a sports bar. Instead, this section will be about the vital commodity that never goes out of style in the NBA. It may have seemed the Heat had a plethora of wings at their disposal over the past couple of seasons, but that was simply a mirage. The wings they had were either too small for certain lineups or only adequate at one end of the floor. Yet, you watch as the teams currently fighting in the Conference Finals have an endless basket of wings they can put on the floor. The best teams all year had wings that we’re able to give their coach flexible lineup options.

The good news is that Miami should be looking to add wings for Coach Spoelstra to work with next season. The bad news is that the options in the Free Agency class are minimal. However, we’re going to go through all the available options today, starting with an excellent one.

Kawhi Leonard (PO, UFA if PO declined):

Age: 30

Fit: 10/10

Reliability: 7/10

Attainability: 2/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 10/10

It’s the summer of players whose initials are KL and played in Toronto. Much like with the other KL, Miami would very much enjoy the services of Kawhi. The playoffs have shown how important it is to have a “bucket-getter” in moments when the offense gets bogged down. These moments demand a player who can take the ball and get to his spots at any given time, especially when those spots are in the mid-range where defenses concede most of their shots. The only downside is his recurring health issues that have his reliability at 7 for this exercise. Honestly, it feels a little high to even have him at that.

You would think Kawhi would be the perfect match. Well, the major hold-up in this potential marriage would be Leonard’s seemingly unbreakable bond with playing in his hometown. It’s tough to read what goes on in most players’ minds, but Kawhi is like trying to read a Cyrillic book without glasses. I don’t think he’ll leave unless something drastic were to happen in the coming weeks. He was close to a finals appearance if not for an injury, and I’m sure he thinks there’s unfinished business. But I will remind everyone that he did want to play with Jimmy Butler in LA before settling for Paul George.

Tim Hardaway Jr (UFA):

Age: 29

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 9/10

Attainability 5/10

Win-Now Player (slight hint of upside)

Overall Rating: 7/10

A name that is very familiar for the South Florida Faithful since the 90s. The name ring a bell, but the playstyle of the man they call THJ is vastly different than his father. While Tim Hardaway Sr. turned into a pretty good shooter in his own right, he was never the sharpshooter his son has turned into. Hardway Jr. has made an argument that he was the core piece dealt in the Knicks-Mavericks Porzingis trade. While I’ve seen some people clamor to bring the prodigal son home, I’m still not entirely convinced. Hardaway Jr. has been a very up and down player throughout his career, and for the second time in a row, he’s performed best when in a contract year.

I’d be very cautious of asking for a semi-one-dimensional player who is adequate on defense but would demand a lot of money. If that’s the case, I’d rather bring back Duncan Robinson, to whom you’d at least hold the bird rights. On the other hand, paying Tim Hardaway Jr. nearly 24 million a year would be a shaky proposition.

Evan Fournier (UFA):

Age: 28

Fit: 4/10

Reliability: 7.5/10

Attainability: 7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 4.5/10

Another name Heat fans should be familiar with, even if the memories are unsavory. Having an RSHK sign in Miami has worked out before with the likes of Wayne Ellington. The difference is that Wayne didn’t cost much, and Fournier would demand a much higher payday. But, outside of the money, I’m not a fan of the fit as a whole. While the former Magic guard does well in secondary creation, he’s very prone to ball-stopping and falling in love with his own shot. He also gives back most of his points on the defensive end due to his size and lack of strength. He’s very much a Plan E type of guy in free agency. I would look out for him if his market were to shrink, and he’d have to settle for a mid-level type of deal.

Kelly Oubre Jr. (UFA)

Age: 25

Fit: 6/10

Reliability: 6/10

Attainability: 7.5/10

Half-Upside/Half-Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 6.5/10

Kelly Oubre went through a season that perfectly encapsulated his career up to this point. Looking like a disaster at the beginning, followed by patches of really nice two-way play. He can drive a fanbase crazy with his peaks and valleys and on-court decision-making. Miami can talk themselves into bringing out the best version of an enigmatic SF/PF the same way they did James Johnson. The price here is a huge indicator if this marriage is possible. I definitely wouldn’t be opposed to a buy low bid for his services the same way Johnson was signed. The market should dictate how much Miami is willing to pursue Oubre. Do Heat fans want another up and down player named Kelly on the team? The Kelly-Coaster Part 2 does have a nice ring to it.

Will Barton (PO, UFA if declined):

Age: 30

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 5.5/10

Attainability: 6/10

Win Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

I’ve always been a fan of the man they call “The Thrill” since his Portland days. He’s always been a competitor and, by all accounts, a great teammate. He can give you a basket if needed and knows how to work with a skilled big man. There are times where he can throw up some very ill-advised jumpers that’ll drive you crazy, but that nickname is there for a reason. At the same time, I may be overstating his ability to break down defenders; there’s noticeable injury history that comes with it. His price will also depend on how much value he holds to teams more desperate at the wing position. But if the price is right, he’d fit right in with the system in place or a different system altogether should things change.

Trevor Ariza (UFA):

Mar 29, 2021; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30) defends against Miami Heat forward Trevor Ariza (8) at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mike Stobe/POOL PHOTOS-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 36

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability 7/10

Attainability: 9/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 7/10

We’ve reached our first Heat player, and the ratings may seem a bit weird to everyone reading this. Let me explain; these are the rating IF Ariza is willing to take on a minimal deal and role. A small mid-level or a veteran’s minimum deals are the ideal scenarios. Ariza was a seamless fit into what Miami could have asked for from a mid-season plug and play starter. However, he should only be brought back on the basis that he’ll be playing off the bench and taking on the Iguodala role. His body is probably at the point where he can’t play long stretches at the 4 anymore. Anything past a bargain price will likely be goodbye to Mr. Ariza.

Norman Powell (PO, UFA if declined):

Age: 28

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 9/10

Attainability: 2/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

Much of what I said about Will Barton can be repeated for Norman Powell. They’re very similar players in that they can be as ignitable as they are prone to droughts. At the same time, Norm does have an edge regarding staying healthy and defensive abilities. Powell’s size can hurt against teams featuring bigger lineups. He’s best used as a 2 but has shown an ability to guard up for small stretches. The major hurdle will be the asking price and the Blazers not wanting to lose him for nothing. Those obstacles will more than likely put this possible partnership on hold this summer.

Duncan Robinson (RFA, Heat hold Bird Rights):

PORTLAND, OREGON – FEBRUARY 09: Duncan Robinson #55 of the Miami Heat reacts during the final seconds of play in the fourth quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers during their game at Moda Center on February 09, 2020 in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Age: 27

Fit: 9/10

Reliability: 9.5/10

Attainability: 9/10

Win-Now Player with some upside

Overall Rating: 8/10

Our next Heat player has caused plenty of debate dating back to the middle of February. Should you pay Duncan? Is his cap hold worth bringing back? As is the case with most of the wings on this list, it all depends on the price and what other moves are made alongside. I think Duncan is an incredible shooter that can be schemed out of playoff series like many one-dimensional shooters before him. He still has plenty to improve on, and maybe that potential is enticing enough to sign for 18 million a year. To me, it’s about what other moves would be made in addition to a possible 15-18mil a year deal. If that’s the only big move you’re making, it’s a failed offseason.

It’s going to be interesting to see which way Miami operates with a player that seems to be the focal point of their offense at times (sometimes to their detriment.) There is also the possibility Duncan can be used in a sign-and-trade scenario to acquire a player(s) that would improve the rest of the roster. To me, he is a luxury, as most sharpshooters have proven to be if the roster around him is good enough. Miami must make their roster better to unleash his luxury or risk more of the same stagnation.

Nicolas Batum (UFA):

Age: 32

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 7/10

Attainability: 7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 9/10

No one could have imagined Batum returning to his Portland form after such a chaotic tenure in Charlotte. He became the perfect wing for the Los Angeles Clippers in an instant. Sliding into his role perfectly as the connecter on offense and a solid defensive player with intuitive rotations and pre-rotations. Batum has shown a willingness to play the 4 if asked, and his age isn’t as much of a red flag as you’d think. Depending on how Miami fills out the roster at the top, they should keep an eye on Batum’s price. He might have played himself out of both Miami and Los Angeles’s price range, but he’s worth being alert for.

Josh Hart (RFA):

Age: 26

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 8/10

Attainability: 3/10

Win-Now Player with some upside

Overall Rating: 9/10

If “plug and play” had a face, it would be a large picture of Josh Hart smiling. He fits on to so many rosters, including Miami’s. He’s a solid enough shooter, a pretty good defender, and he does all the little things you need from your role players. He’s a younger version of Batum in this sense. He can play small spurts at the 4 but is best used as a 3 and even a big 2 guard. His two-way ability makes it that he is an easy plug alongside Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.

The obvious large hurdle for Miami is Hart’s restricted free agency. New Orleans has been said to love Hart and wants to keep him there for the long term. Miami’s only hope is that between now and August 2nd that the relationship sours quite a bit.

 

You know what time it is — it’s the rapid-fire segment! You might see a few familiar names here and there.

Alec Burks: It should be interesting to see what sort of deal Burks demands in the market. He’s a microwave-type scorer and can give some excellent bursts of offensive basketball. I don’t think he’ll settle for a low-level deal and should fetch something from a team looking for bench scoring.

Jeff Green: Jeff has made a career of being a solid wing player that knows his role and is willing to adapt to the role the teams need. He’s been on minimum deals for the past handful of years and would be worth a look.

Justise Winslow: It would be surprising if Memphis were to pick up his option, and that’s not something anyone saw coming 2 years ago. I wouldn’t mind a buy-low deal for the former player, but it’s hard to see Miami and Winslow reuniting after a messy breakup still fresh on both minds.

Kent Bazemore: Bazemore can be quite an infuriating player. If you pulled your hair out at Mario Chalmers, you’d pull your skin out with Kent. He should be a smart veteran player, but he does not live up to the billing.

Solomon Hill: Bring back the legend on a minimum deal!

Wayne Ellington: It’s still surprising how Detroit didn’t trade or waive Ellington at the deadline last season, considering his contract situation. Nevertheless, teams looking for cheap shooting off the bench will be looking at the former Heat player. Both parties left on good terms and have had nothing but praise for one another since their split. I don’t think anyone would mind a vet minimum reunion.

Alex Caruso: A solid backup guard who plays excellent defense will always garner interest from Miami. The Lakers might be keen on retaining Caruso, but there will be plenty of eyes on his situation in the final few days of free agency.

Doug McDermott: Doug has quietly turned himself into an excellent paint scorer. He shot 67.7% on 5 attempts a game on shots within 5ft. For comparison, Luka Doncic was at 66% on 4.8 attempts. He’s always been a pretty good shooter, so if Robinson were to leave or get traded, McDermott would be a decent cheaper backup.

Andre Iguodala: Yeah, I don’t think Andre’s coming back. He’s definitely a Plan Z guy, and I imagine he’ll get a deal in Golden State to retire into the San Francisco Sunset.

Reggie Bullock: Another Wayne Ellington type of player with a bit more size. I imagine he’ll have some loyalty to NY due to his best year coming with the Knicks.

Torrey Craig: A Sioux Falls Skyforce legend would definitely not be a bad pickup for cheap. He’s a nice piece off the bench that had a good bounce back in Phoenix after a rough go at it in Milwaukee. He’s always been a good energy guy who can knock down a corner 3 and would be a younger Ariza-like option.

Tyler Johnson: Let’s list off another former Heat player for the fun of it. A reunion for a small deal with Tyler wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Tyler’s always been a great teammate, and his shooting has gotten better since his last few Heat years.

 

Thanks again for reading Part 2 of the Free Agency series. I’ll be back to cover the frontcourt options of the class next week as we inch closer to August 2nd.

 

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Assessing nine Miami Dolphins draft moves in Hindsight

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There are fewer things in the sports that highlight relative unfairness quite like the NFL Draft. Rather than front offices judging players on their tape of playing the game, players’ draft stock can rise or fall by how well they move around cones in their boxer briefs. The tables are then turned as front offices have their picks immediately graded by media pundits before the selections can even take the field to prove their value.

Making matters worse for front offices is everyone’s ability to look back years later and provide 20/20 hindsight of what should’ve been done in the projection period. Fans can look back and dream of possibilities of what could have been if their team had only selected Player B instead of Player A.
The Miami Dolphins are in the same boat as the other 31 teams in feeling pain with this exercise. For the purpose of this column, I looked back at the Dolphins’ drafts since the turn of the millennium. I ranked the nine most painful first round draft picks for the Dolphins in hindsight, considering who else was on the board at that time. In order to be reasonable, I only looked at first round-for-first round swaps, as saying, “the Dolphins should’ve taken Tom Brady in the first round in 2000 instead of allowing him to fall to the sixth” is asking a herculean amount from a front office.
9. 2020 Who they took: USC OT Austin Jackson 18th overall
Who they could have taken: LSU WR Justin Jefferson 22nd overall
 
Now, this is without question the most unfair one on the list. Each player has only played one season, and Jackson has only been legally able to drink alcohol for 10 months. Jackson had a bit of a rocky first year, but given his age, his recovery from a bone marrow transplant, and the difficulty of the position, there is little reason to believe he cannot develop into an offensive tackle worthy of the 18th pick.
What makes this one tough is Jefferson was at a position of need, and would have immediately made Tua Tagovailoa’s transition to the NFL smoother. He also was one of only two rookies to make the Pro Bowl, and set the NFL record for receiving yards by a rookie with 1,400.
Adding salt to the wound is the hypothetical that if Miami did take Jefferson in 2020 and chose to address OT early in 2021 (the inverse of how it played out positionally), they would have Jefferson and Penei Sewell instead of Jackson and Jaylen Waddle. History will tell us which pairing has the better NFL careers, but for now, it’s hard not to wish Jefferson was in the Miami receiving corps.
8. 2004 Who they took: Miami (FL) OT Vernon Carey 19th overall after trading a fourth-rounder to Minnesota to move up from 20
Who they could have taken: Miami (FL) NT Vince Wilfork 21st overall
 
The late Eddie Jones did not have to travel far to make his first round selection, going down the road to Coral Gables to grab Hurricanes tackle Vernon Carey. The lifelong Miami native who is now a high school coach in the area served well in his eight years with the Dolphins, playing both tackle spots as well as right guard. While eight years is not as long as Miami hoped when they selected Carey, what lands him on this list is the player taken two selections later.
Jones had the right school and right idea with a tackle, but needed to look to the other side of the ball for the Hurricanes. Wilfork ended up with the cross-division rival New England Patriots and was a first-team All-Pro, three-time second-team All-Pro, five-time Pro Bowler, two-time Super Bowl champion, and figures to find himself enshrined in Canton one day.
The middle of the Dolphins’ defensive line in 2004 featured Tim Bowens and Larry Chester, both players who played their last seasons of football that fall. Adding Wilfork to a front seven that featured Jason Taylor, Adele Ogunleye, Zach Thomas, and Junior Seau would have been fearsome. The fact that he had to go to Foxboro from right down the road makes it all the more sour.
7. 2001 Who they took: Wisconsin CB Jamar Fletcher 26th overall
Who they could have taken: Miami (FL) WR Reggie Wayne 30th overall
 
Sticking with the Hurricane theme, this one is particularly painful. Fletcher lasted just three seasons in Miami before being dealt to the San Diego Chargers. He played a total of nine seasons in the NFL with five teams, and never made a Pro Bowl or had more than three interceptions in a season.
Wayne, on the other hand, has been nominated for the Pro Football Hall of Fame after 14 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts that saw him make six Pro Bowls. He had 82 regular season receiving touchdowns in Indy, which is exactly as many as Dolphins all-time leader in receiving touchdowns Mark Clayton had in his career.
What makes this one most puzzling is team need at the time. At receiver, Miami was relying on Oronde Gadsden and Leslie Shepherd. Meanwhile, at cornerback, the Dolphins had Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison, both in their mid-20s. The need was definitely at receiver, and that proved itself over time. It should be pointed out that Purdue quarterback Drew Brees went two picks after Wayne at pick 32.
6. 2008 Who they took: Michigan OT Jake Long 1st overall
Who they could have taken: Boston College QB Matt Ryan 3rd overall
 
Long was an exceptional player in Miami. He was with the Dolphins for five seasons, and made four Pro Bowls. Unfortunately, he experienced back and biceps injuries before turning down an extension and electing to move on to St. Louis. His injury problems only worsened as he twice tore his ACL and also tore his achilles, forcing him into an early retirement. If injuries had not gotten in Long’s way and the Dolphins were able to keep him in free agency, the sky would have been the limit for the former Michigan Wolverine.
The pain point here of course is Ryan. Miami has not been able to find a long-term solution at quarterback since the retirement of Dan Marino. Ryan, by all indications, could have been that in South Florida. The 2016 MVP is entering his 14th season and will play for his fourth head coach, remaining the lone constant in Atlanta. He is 113-92 as a starter, thrown for 7,443 yards and 347 touchdowns, made five Pro Bowls and six trips to the playoffs.
Offensive tackle is arguably the second-most important position on a football field. The reason it is so high, though, is because it is used to protect what is the most important position in sports: quarterback. Maybe Ryan would not have fit in with offensive philosophies from some of Miami’s head coaches in this time, but his longevity in Atlanta makes you wonder if the Dolphins could have had their man under center for a decade-plus.
5. 2012 Who they took: Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill 8th overall
Who they could have taken: Boston College LB Luke Kuechly 9th overall or South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore 10th overall
 
Tannehill has proven to be a pretty good quarterback. That’s especially true when you consider he made a Pro Bowl in 2019, and the quarterbacks selected above him (Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III) are not currently on NFL rosters due to Luck’s early retirement and Griffin’s injury history. Unfortunately for Miami, Tannehill was never that for the Dolphins. It took trading him and a sixth-rounder to Tennessee for a fourth-rounder for the ex-Aggie to reach his potential.
It’s rarely a bad idea to take a quarterback in the draft when you are in dire need of one. It’s when you see 10 future Pro Bowls go off the board in the first round after Tannehill that stings. Kuechly was a five-time first-team All-Pro and Defensive Player of the Year and went the very next pick. Gilmore has also been a Defensive Player of the Year, made two first-team All-Pro teams, and is terrorizing receivers for the Patriots. After those two, you also see Fletcher Cox (14th), Melvin Ingram (18th), Chandler Jones (21st), and Dont’a Hightower (25th) among others.
4. 2013 Who they took: Oregon DE Dion Jordan 3rd overall after trading a second-rounder to Oakland to move up from 12
Who they could have taken: Clemson WR DeAndre Hopkins 27th overall
 
This is a historically bad draft. Seriously, go look at it. To stick with the theme of the draft, Jordan was a historically bad selection especially when you consider Miami traded a second rounder to move up to take him. Jordan was only with Miami for four seasons, totaling just 3.0 combined sacks in his first two years before missing the next two after off-the-field issues. He has not been much better in the four seasons since, combining for 10.5 sacks for the Seahawks, Raiders, and 49ers.
Philadelphia Eagles left tackle Lane Johnson was picked fourth, right after Jordan, and made three Pro Bowls. It’s Hopkins, however, that really would have been the right selection in hindsight. He would have been on the board still at 12, and was just the second receiver taken, so despite grabbing his 15 spots ahead of where he actually went, it would not have been an overdraft.
Brian Hartline and Davone Bess were the leading receivers for the Dolphins the year prior with the former having a 1,000-yard season only to be followed up by another 1,000-yard campaign in 2013. Bess was replaced after 2012 with Steelers wideout Mike Wallace, who last just two seasons in Miami, leaving the same time as Hartline.
Hopkins has been nothing short of a monster in his NFL career. He’s made three first-team All-Pro teams, and two second-team All-Pro nods. Consistently one of the most dangerous receivers in football, Hopkins would have been an absolute asset in South Florida.
3. 2007 Who they took: Ohio State WR Ted Ginn Jr. 9th overall
Who they could have taken: Ole Miss LB Patrick Willis 11th overall or Pittsburgh CB Darrelle Revis 14th overall
 
Now we are getting to the “I want to puke” part of the list. Ginn was coming off a foot injury from his time in Columbus, and many Dolphins fans were furious the furious that general manager Randy Mueller did not take Brady Quinn, who wound up going 13 picks later to Cleveland. It turns out the fan sentiment was right, but the reasoning was off.
Ginn spent three years with the Dolphins, catching five touchdown passes, running for two, and returning three more. Since then, he has been a bit of a journeyman, changing teams six times and is currently a free agent. Though he never missed any games in Miami with injury, he never lived up to his billing, either.
Meanwhile, in the six picks that followed Ginn, four of them made Pro Bowls. Willis went 11th, Marshawn Lynch went 12th, Revis went 14th, and future Dolphin Lawrence Timmons went 15th. Having a player like either Willis or Revis would have been very beneficial to a team that ended up going a league-worst 1-15.
Miami had Joey Porter and Channing Crowder at outside linebacker, but Derrick Pope in the middle. Willis did not have the longest career, retiring after just eight seasons and battling a nagging toe injury in his final campaign. He did make the most of his time in the league, making the Pro Bowl in his first seven seasons en route to becoming a member of the 2010s All-Decade Team.
Revis was also a member of that All-Decade team, and became familiar to Dolphins fans as a lockdown corner for the Jets and Patriots, among others. He had Michael Lehan and Will Allen staring at him in the cornerback room, something the seven-time Pro Bowler could have easily overcome. Star Island is nice, but Revis Island would have been better.
2. 2017 Who they took: Missouri DE Charles Harris 22nd overall
Who they could have taken: Wisconsin OLB TJ Watt 30th overall
 
The two players had similar backgrounds coming into the league as Harris stood 6’3 and had 9.0 sacks in his final year at Mizzou, while Watt stood 6’4 and totaled 11.5 for the Badgers in 2016. That is when the two took vastly different career arcs.
Harris started just eight games in three years for Miami, accumulating 3.5 sacks combined. He was then shipped north to Atlanta for a seventh-round pick, not exactly top value for a young former first-round pass rusher. He had three sacks for the Falcons, before they let him go sign with Detroit. If he cannot further those sack numbers for the Lions, his next move may be north again to the CFL.
Watt on the other hand has started 62 of a possible 64 games for the Steelers, amassing 49.5 sacks and 59 TFL. He had a tall billing to live up to given his older brother JJ’s success in Houston, but has been equally as disruptive. He’s made the Pro Bowl in each of the last three years, including two first-team All-Pro campaigns. The Falcons and Cowboys each took pass rushers between Harris and Watt in 2017, and no doubt they join the Dolphins in feeling sick to their stomachs overlook Watt.
1. 2005 Who they took: Auburn RB Ronnie Brown 2nd overall
Who they could have taken: Cal QB Aaron Rodgers 24th overall
 
I mean, come on, who else? This pick again is not about who Miami took, but rather who they didn’t take. Brown rushed for 5,391 yards, mostly with the Dolphins, and was an integral part of the Wildcat offense that led to the 2008 division title. He made one Pro Bowl, played 10 years in the league, and was by all accounts, a solid running back.
Of course, a solid running back does not equal one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. It’s seemingly impossible for a running back to match a quarterback’s value, even when the positional charts were slightly different in 2005 than they are today. Yes, Rodgers was taken 22 picks after Brown, but he was very much in play for the 49ers at No. 1 overall.
San Francisco direly needed a quarterback, and eventually opted for Utah QB Alex Smith, who went on to a pretty good career in the NFL. Rodgers, in turn, slid and slid with players like Erasmus James, Alex Barron, and Fabian Washington all going before him. It’s not like the Dolphins could not use a franchise quarterback themselves. They had a QB room of Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels.
If teams viewed the quarterback position like they do today, or hell 2011 when four quarterbacks went in the first round including Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder, Miami would have almost certainly chosen whomever San Francisco did not take at one. That would leave them with Rodgers, who has won a Super Bowl, three MVP trophies, been elected to nine Pro Bowls, and will undoubtedly find himself as a first ballot Hall of Famer.
This pick is far different than the others before it on this list. It does not just change the Dolphins in the immediate future from 2005. It doesn’t just change the Dolphins for the next decade-and-a-half like it did the Packers. It would have changed the complexion of an era in the NFL.
Rodgers is not a system quarterback, he’s a transcendent one. If he was in Miami beginning in 2005 instead of Green Bay, do the Patriots still win the 13 AFC East titles, six AFC titles, and three Super Bowls they’ve won since then with Rodgers in the division? Does Brett Favre still go to the Jets and Vikings, or does he retire in Wisconsin? Does Miami build from its illustrious past and win the Super Bowls Marino deserved, but with Rodgers at the helm?
It’s enough to keep you up at night. There’s really no other choice for Miami fans but to bury this one deep and never bring it up again. The other eight scenarios on the list are season-changing, but this one could have erased the mediocrity that has been Dolphin football the last 16 years before it even happened.
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What’s the Real Value of Miami’s Duncan Robinson?

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To say the 2020-2021 season did not go as the Miami Heat planned would be an understatement. Fresh off an NBA Finals appearance, and I do mean fresh off as they were just two months removed, the Heat battled injuries and Covid issues en route to a sixth-place finish in the East and a first-round exit. That means Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg have an advanced start on putting their offseason plan into motion.

 

One of the first orders of business is what to do about 6’7 sharpshooter Duncan Robinson. The third-year man out of Michigan is at the end of his rookie contract that made him an extreme bargain at just $1.6 million last season. The Heat will assuredly offer him a qualifying offer of $4,736,102 this offseason making him a restricted free agent. The question on a lot of minds is what is Robinson’s value and what will his market look like come late summer.
In a year marred by absences for the rest of the roster, Robinson played and started all 72 games for the Heat. He took a small setback in points per game from 2019-2020 from 13.5 to 13.1, but saw considerable dips in other key shooting areas. From last year to this, Robinson’s field goal percentage fell from 47.0 to 43.9, his three-point percentage from 44.6 to 40.8, and his free throws from 93.1 down to 82.7.
Much of those dips can be attributed to a very taxing last calendar year. Many of the league’s star players missed time, felt fatigue, and even the defending-champion Lakers had to play in the play-in games before getting trounced in the first round by the Suns. All that to say, context is important when evaluating anyone this season.
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Even despite some falls from the year before, Robinson stacked up very well with other sharpshooters in the NBA. The only guys to average more than Robinson’s 3.5 three-point field goals made per game were Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Buddy Hield, and CJ McCollum. That is pretty great company to keep. Some may read that and figure Robinson is on that list due strictly to being a high-volume shooter. Out of the 15 players who shot at least eight three-pointers per game, only four shot above 40 percent from deep: Curry (42.1), Zach LaVine (41.9), Robinson (40.8), and McCollum (40.2).
Robinson is known across the NBA is an elite shooter, but what goes under-the-radar is his improvement on the defensive end of the floor. Last season, he was third on the Heat (behind Jimmy Butler and Victor Oladipo) in defensive win shares at 0.113, which was also good enough for 35th in the entire association. He also had a defensive rating of 108.3, which was better than guys like Kawhi Leonard, Jrue Holiday, Russell Westbrook, Bam Adebayo, Oladipo, and Draymond Green. That’s not to say he is a better defender than the names listed, rather to prove his value cannot just be limited to his shot.

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So where does that leave Robinson in terms of contract value? I ran through 10 players who for one reason or another drew parallels to Robinson: Joe Ingles, Gary Trent Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr., Davis Bertans, Fred Van Vleet, Devonte’ Graham, Joe Harris, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Evan Fournier, and Malik Beasley. Everyone in the group made at least 2.6 threes per game and shot at least 36 percent from beyond the arc last year. All 11 also average at least 36 percent from three for their careers, as well.
Out of the group, Robinson ranked fourth in three-point percentage last year, and is first on the list for his career. Only Beasley averaged as many threes made per game last year (both at 3.5), with no one coming close to Robinson’s 3.3 per game average for his career. Of course that last part is no surprise as he holds the record for the fastest player to 500 threes in NBA history. His 13.1 ppg in 2020-2021 was only higher than Ingles, Bertans, and Fournier, but his 12.3 for his career is the fourth-highest behind just Fournier, Hardaway Jr., and Graham.
On the defensive side, Ingles had the highest DEF WS ranking of the group at 16, followed by Graham at 24. Robinson’s 35th puts him third, and considerably higher than some on the list. For example: Hardaway Jr. was 202, Fournier 208, Beasley 295, and Trent Jr. all the way at 363.
For comparison sake on salaries, here is each player’s most-recent contract, the year it was signed, and their age when they signed it:
Ingles: Four-year, $52 million signed in 2017 when he was 29, though he has since added a one-year extension to take him through 2021-2022.
Hardaway Jr: Four-year, $70.95 million in 2017 when he was 25.
Bertans: Five-year, $80 million in 2020 when he was 28.
Van Vleet: Four-year, $85 million in 2020 when he was 26.
Harris: Four-year, $75 million in 2020 when he was 29.
Bogdanovic: Four-year, $72 million in 2020 when he was 28.
Fournier: Five-year, $85 million in 2016 when he was 23.
Beasley: Four-year, $60 million in 2020 when he was 24.
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Graham (26-years-old) and Trent Jr. (22) are in the same boat as Robinson as their rookie deals are expiring this offseason. That puts all of the other between $13 million and $21.25 per year, with the majority coming around the $17-18 million per annum mark. Robinson is in the middle of the pack at 27 years of age, older than most when coming into his first marquee contract.
That means the reasonable expectation for someone like Robinson should have a floor of around $16 million with a ceiling of a little over $20 million when drawing comparisons. Many have looked to Harris’s deal when he re-signed with the Nets last offseason as a potential barometer. The two are very comparable statistically on offense, with Robinson holding a statistical edge on defense.
Will Miami look to invest that kind of money into Robinson is another question. After going undrafted in 2018, he signed a two-way deal with Miami and the Sioux Falls Skyforce before blossoming into an every-night starter just a year later. Riley & Co. have shown loyalty to its homegrown projects in the past such as Tyler Johnson and to a degree Hassan Whiteside (who started with the Kings before falling into basketball purgatory until making it back to the Skyforce and Heat).
While the others did not work out in Miami’s favor, the front office has been extremely high on Robinson. In the last year, Dan Le Batard said he heard conversations within the organization they believe Robinson’s ceiling could be as high as Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson. When comparing the two, Robinson scored ahead of Thompson in 3PM and 3P% in their last full-season (2020-2021 for Robinson and 2018-2019 for Thompson), and 3PM and 3P% for their careers. Robinson ranks even further in those categories ahead of Thompson when you compare his third and first three seasons against Thompson’s third and first three. Thompson is considered to be an elite wing defender, a leg up over Robinson.
Robinson is still not at Thompson heights to this point, and no one would argue against that, even Duncan himself. What is interesting is his potential, and when or if Miami believes he can reach that point given that he is already 27. Shooters are being paid at a premium as the league evolves, with the former Michigan product figuring to have no shortage of suiters.
Will teams with lots of cap space such as the Knicks, Spurs, or Mavericks come calling? Four of the names on the list, including Fournier, Hardaway Jr., Graham, and Trent Jr. will all be on the market this summer to one degree or another. Will one sign first then set the market for the others? Does giving Robinson a healthy extension preclude Miami from long-term flexibility, something that is always at a premium in that front office?
All of that will be answered later this summer as Riley and Elisburg decide just how much Miami runs on Duncan.
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Miami Dolphins

Fresh Perspective: Top 5 Miami Dolphins Training Camp Battles

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Training camp always brings interesting matchups to keep an eye on. With the amount of talent the Miami Dolphins have on their roster this year, players who would normally be locks are suddenly going to have to battle to keep their spot on the roster, or at least their starting job. So here are the top five training camp battles to keep an eye on in 2021.

1. Jakeem Grant vs. Albert Wilson

The wide receiver position is loaded this year. With the addition of Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle this offseason, Miami has an excellent mixture of speed and size to threaten defenses with. However, that does leave two veterans in a very awkward situation.

Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant both offer speed and elusiveness to an offense. But both have their share of concerns as well.

Wilson suffered a devastating hip injury in 2018 that derailed his impressive first season with the Miami Dolphins. Playing in only seven games, he caught 26 passes for 391 yards and a career-high four touchdowns. Had he played the whole season, he likely would have shattered every previous personal record he had. Then in 2019 he struggled to get back to full strength, always looking a step slower than before, up until the very end of the season where he started looking like himself. In 2020, he opted out of the season due to Covid-19 concerns, restructuring his contract to a 1-year, $3 million dollar deal.

As for Grant, last season he was voted 2nd-team All-Pro as a punt returner. Dolphins fans are well aware of what Grant can do when the ball is in his hands. However, that is Grant’s biggest flaw. He struggles to get the ball in his hands. Grant has made a few big catches in his career, but there have been just as many – if not more – plays that were left on the field because Grant either dropped or fumbled the ball at the worst time.

The battle will come down to two things. Is Albert Wilson finally back to what he was before the injury? Can Jakeem Grant catch the ball consistently when it’s thrown to him? Even the smallest doubt in either direction could be the deciding factor. There just isn’t enough room on the roster to keep all of them, so one of these two will probably be looking for work after camp is over.

2. Hunter Long vs. Durham Smythe

There’s no question who the starting tight end for the Miami Dolphins is. He hasn’t received an extension yet, but Mike Gesicki is the first guy on the depth chart. It should also be noted that he earned that status. Gesicki started slow (no thanks to Adam Gase trying to make him block), but these past two years with Brian Flores as the head coach has turned the former Penn State standout into one of the game’s best pass-catching tight ends.

That does, however, leave the players behind him in an awkward situation. The Miami Dolphins drafted Hunter Long in the 3rd round of the 2021 NFL draft. Many draft pundits think very highly of the Boston College standout, some suggesting his ceiling could be akin to Rob Gronkowski. So why is the competition between Long and Smythe, instead of Long and Shaheen, you may be asking.

The simple answer is this: Shaheen played well enough last season to earn an extension. Smythe, however, is going into the final year of his rookie deal and there’s been little talk of bringing him back on a fresh contract. Since being drafted in the 4th round of the 2018 draft, Smythe has caught 39 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns. True, his primary role is as a blocking tight end, but the Dolphins offense thrives on versatility. In comparison to Shaheen, Smythe is the better overall blocker according to ProFootballFocus. But just barely.

This is where Long comes in. In college, Long showed proficiency as both a pass-catching tight end and a blocker. He finished second in all of college football for tight ends with 57 receptions and 685 receiving yards, beaten by only Florida Gators superstar Kyle Pitts who went fourth overall to the Atlanta Falcons in the 2021 draft. That’s an impressive feat no matter what conference you’re in.

So if Shaheen is more productive as a pass catcher, and comparable as a blocker, it’s easy to assume Shaheen is the incumbent for the backup tight end spot. So if Smythe wants to stay on the team, he’ll have to a very strong training camp to fend off the new rookie. Hunter Long is already starting to flash, Smythe needs to find a way to make himself stand out.

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3. Noah Igbinoghene vs. Nik Needham

This is one of those training camp battles where a spot on the roster isn’t at stake. There’s no question that both Needham and Igbinoghene will make the final cut. The question is who will get to be the primary reserve player? And where?

It’s no secret that Igbinoghene has a ton of raw talent. But his struggles during his rookie season have some feeling skeptical. Nonetheless, he is still extremely young, and he’s still learning the cornerback position after spending his first two years at Auburn playing wide receiver. There’s no reason to give up on him at this point.

Not only that, with star cornerback Xavien Howard holding out for a new contract, he’s gotten an opportunity to prove himself all over again. As of now, it’s a waiting game to see what happens with Howard. Should he be traded, the Miami Dolphins will need someone to step up. That someone could be Igbinoghene.

Or, it could be Nik Needham. No matter who gets added to the roster, the undrafted free agent out of UTEP keeps finding ways to get everyone’s attention. Perhaps through sheer force of will, he’s become an excellent reserve corner and even a borderline starter. If he continues improving at this rate, Igbinoghene will be forced to look over his shoulder unless he performs at his peak.

4. Matt Skura vs. Michael Deiter

Truth be told, no one really saw this coming. The immediate assumption was that Matt Skura would be starting at center for the Miami Dolphins in 2021. However, Brian Flores eliminated that possibility last week while speaking to the media before the end of mini-camp.

“We sign players with the idea that they are going to create competition and earn a role.” He said. “Nobody is going to be given anything. I think really at all positions, at any position, that’s always the plan. It’s to come in, compete, learn the playbook, communicate with your teammates and we’ll play the best people at whatever that position is.”

That’s par for the course when it comes to Flores, of course. Competition is crucial, the best players will play, we’ve heard it all before. But what made it interesting was the player Flores was talking about when bringing that up again. That player was University of Wisconsin offensive lineman Michael Deiter.

“I think ‘Deets’ (Michael Deiter) has really made a lot of improvements over the last two years.” Flores said. “Obviously he played a lot his rookie year and didn’t play as much last year. He moved to center – has played guard, has played center, played some tackle for us his rookie year. He can play really across the offensive line. He’ll be in competition to get playing time this year. He’s excited about that opportunity.

“Look, he’s a guy who works extremely hard. He’s competitive, tough and has a lot of the qualities that we’re looking for. I’m excited to see what this looks like for him during training camp. I think when you get into Year 2, Year 3, there’s a sense of urgency – which he has, you can see that – to earn a role or a bigger role. He’s definitely working towards that; but he knows there will be competition there and the best man will win.”

Based on their respective track records, Skura still has a better chance at winning the job. His ability to block isn’t in question, only his ability to snap the football. That can be improved. Deiter, on the other hand, hasn’t shown he can block at a high level in the NFL. He’ll have a chance to prove himself this season, going up against a very strong defensive tackle rotation in training camp. If he can’t win the job, then he’ll likely be acting as a reserve.

5. Jason McCourty vs. Jevon Holland

The biggest experience gap is between these two players. McCourty is a 34-year old, 12-year veteran in the NFL. Holland is a 21-year old, promising rookie out of Oregon. What makes this even more interesting is the ironic role reversal. McCourty may have a lot more NFL experience, but this will be his first season playing safety. At least, it seems he’ll be playing safety. For the first time in his career, McCourty is listed as a defensive back, not a cornerback. That implies he’ll be practicing at both spots.

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As for Holland, he spent most of his time in college as a slot cornerback, but had excellent snaps at free safety. In many ways, Holland has the same capabilities as former Miami Dolphins DB Minkah Fitzpatrick. With any luck, he won’t be as opposed to playing where the coaching staff wants to use him. His disadvantage is more traditional. As a rookie, he isn’t yet accustomed to the increased speed and skill level of the NFL. He has to overcome that learning curve first.

This battle boils down to who can adapt to their new roles faster. McCourty has never played safety, but he knows what the NFL demands from him. Not only that, he offers a veteran voice in the locker room and can fill the void left by Bobby McCain in helping direct the defense. That leadership factor can’t be overlooked.

Holland on the other hand is a natural fit for the position. He has remarkable instincts, athleticism, and already has plenty of experience playing safety. All he has to do is show he has a grasp on the defense and that he can keep up with NFL talent, and he can win the job.

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Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for seven years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung

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Ranking Every Miami Heat Free Agency Target: Part 1

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A look at who Miami should or shouldn’t look to sign and how they’d fit on the roster moving forward.

 

The sun is shining as Summer has officially started in the northern hemisphere. We can feel the heat, but we’re all missing the Heat while watching the NBA playoffs unfold. These unpredictable and chaotic games haven’t been enough to satisfy the appetite of the fanbase. The fans have been fantasizing and photoshopping every possible player with a Heat jersey. If “we move” is the saying, the fanbase has been like a nomad moving every way possible.

I will try to nourish the unrelenting hunger for movement by giving a quick rundown of every possible Free Agent that may or may not be on the team’s radar. It’ll be a little different, however. I’ll be giving a ranking on every player of 1-10 based on a myriad of categories that will range from age, fit, and health reliability. Going over if the player is a “win now” or “upside” acquisition. Each list of players in this series will be going through Ball Handlers, Wings, Bigs, etc. So enough talk, let’s have some fun!

Ball Handlers:

For this portion of the preview, we’ll be looking at guys who would be under the traditional “point guard” role but also ones who play best when they’re breaking down defenses with a quick dribble. We all witnessed how much Miami could have used a guy to break down a defense to set up Bam Adebayo. But, unfortunately, no one could pressure the rim and cause rotations unless you were Jimmy Butler on the roster last season. So what options will be available for Miami to fill that void left behind Goran Dragic’s aging body? Well, let’s start with a familiar name linked to Miami all of last season.

Kyle Lowry (UFA)

Age: 35

Fit: 10/10

Reliability: 7.5/10

Attainability: 9.7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 10/10

Kyle Lowry’s obviously been on the minds of every Heat fan through most of the season and even as soon as the season ended. And for a good reason. Kyle is the type of player that Miami needed throughout the season. A three-level scorer who put pressure on the rim and set up others while picking his spots. Lowry is the most “plug-and-play” free agent on this list. Despite the age, I think Miami should look to acquire him any way they can. And they’ll have plenty to work with given that they can offer him what he’d want. Not to forget the Jimmy Butler friendship that has cultivated for the past handful of years. The human nature aspect can’t be understated in all of this. But there is also a possibility that it works against Miami. He could decide to work his way to Philadelphia, where he’s from. That involves a lot more hurdles for the Sixers that wouldn’t arise with Miami. Most Heat fans have operated under the assumption he’ll sign with them but proceed with cautious optimism.

 

DeMar DeRozan (UFA)

Age: 32

Fit: 4/10

Reliability: 8.5/10 (remember this is health-related)

Attainability: 7.5/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 5/10

DeMar DeRozan is without question a bucket and a problem, as the kids say. He was one of the best isolation scorers based on Points Per Possession. He’s done all this while improving his passing and becoming a Point Forward at this point in his career. DeMar also is, by all accounts, a great teammate and human being. Having said all that, I really don’t see this being the choice Miami should make for their big splash acquisition. You may ask, “well, how about a small splash?” Even then, I don’t think this move is what the Heat should go out of their way to accomplish. DeRozan does a lot of the same things Jimmy Butler does for Miami. The redundancy is too much for my liking overall. He’s also a player who still doesn’t have a reliable spot-up jumper and requires the ball in his hands a considerable amount to be productive. I’m not even going to bring up the playoff numbers. He also might be looking to get more years somewhere else where this could be his final large and lengthy payday.

 

Mike Conley (UFA)

Age: 33

Fit: 9/10

Reliability: 7/10

Attainability: 8.5/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

Mike Conley was one of the best stories of last season for a lot of basketball fans. He finally got that All-Star notch to his belt that eluded him for so long. He helped the Jazz on their way to a 1 seed and provided secondary ball handling with Donovan Mitchell at his side. Conley is almost a diet version of Kyle Lowry overall. The fit would be very smooth and provide another player that can collapse a defense and punish rotations. There are some yellow (not red) flags when it comes to Conley, however. He did have a rough season prior that could be attributed to his trouble with getting fully healthy. The veteran point guard also had a rough end in terms of health this past season and postseason. So the injury history is there, but the fit would be undeniable.

 

Lonzo Ball (RFA)

Age: 23

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 9.5/10

Attainability: 5.5/10

Upside Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

We’ve reached our first restricted free agent on this list and one of my favorite ones at that. I’m the biggest Lonzo cheerleader here at 5 Reasons, and if anyone says otherwise, they are lying. While listed as a point guard, Lonzo is far superior when used like a secondary creator instead of an initiator. He still struggles to really get to the rim and break down defenders throughout a game. But he’s 23, and you can see how much he can grow when put into the right environment. His 3 point shot has already come along faster than even I thought it would. The problem is how much Miami will be willing to offer and if other teams will outbid them. He’s a young player that many other teams, including the Pelicans, would be willing to pay. I expect he’ll be one of the last big names signed during Free Agency, as it seems to go with RFAs.

 

Dennis Schroeder (UFA)

Age: 27

Fit: 6.5/10

Reliability: 8/10

Attainability: 6.5/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 6/10

We now get to a player that I’m not particularly high on, to say the least. But, theoretically, Dennis should give you the things you missed last season. He’s a good defender who CAN pressure the rim with his speed and has gained a decent 3 point shot. That’s the problem with Schroeder; he’s much better in theory than actual practice. He falls in love with himself a little too much and isn’t as malleable as the rest of the ball handlers on this list. The asking price might also be a little too much than the Heat would be willing to offer. He’s more of a Plan D in terms of what they should be looking for this offseason.

 

Spencer Dinwiddie (UFA)

Age: 28

Fit: 6.5/10

Reliability: 6/10

Attainability: 5/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 6.5/10

Dinwiddie is an interesting player to watch this free agency. However, his value might be foggy with an ACL injury that he’s working his way back from this offseason. As a result, teams will be reluctant to give him a huge contract and settle for a short 2-year deal if the market plays out like I think it will. I don’t think Miami will be one of the teams anxious for his decision. They certainly have space, but I imagine they’d rather give that money to Duncan Robinson. He’s a good 3 level scorer, but not one Miami needs to catapult them to where they want to go.

 

Victor Oladipo (UFA)

Age: 28

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 3/10

Attainability: 10/10

Win-Now Player/Upside-ish

Overall Rating: 6/10

We’ve reached our first current Heat player on this list, and it’s an interesting one, to say the least. But, unfortunately, we only got a small glimpse of what Oladipo would have given the team if he had stayed healthy. The defense was there, as we all expected. He was getting to the rim and didn’t need a screen to do it. He would also make it a priority to get Bam Adebayo the ball. The perfect fit! Well, the injuries have another story to tell. Injuries ruin everything, don’t they? The only thing the injury will do is allow the Heat to offer a one-year “prove it” contract to Oladipo that is reasonably priced. The upside of this would be that you have one of the best value contracts if he were to get healthy and back to a semblance of old Vic. Unfortunately, I don’t think there will be a ton of teams lined up to offer him quite the money he turned down in Houston. But if they do, Miami will more than likely let him go. Wherever he ends up, I’ll be rooting for him to get healthy.

Chris Paul (PO/UFA)

Age: 36

Fit: 10/10

Reliability: 8/10

Attainability: 2/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 10/10

Remember everything I said about Kyle Lowry’s fit? Well, apply that to Chris Paul but make it midrange instead of free throws. Not even 2 years ago would I have expected to see his reliability be this high? He may be older, but he seems to have found a way to keep his body going in a way every player approaching 40 can dream of. The big problem for Miami is that it will take quite a bit to pry him away from Phoenix. If the Suns were to win the title, it would be nearly impossible. It was reported that Paul would turn down his player option in hopes of getting a longer deal for a decent bag in return. Miami could put a decent offer on the table, but the emotional aspect and potential deal the Suns could offer might trump that. Chris Paul will elude the Heat once again, much to the fanbase’s dismay.

 

Kendrick Nunn (RFA, Miami owns Bird Rights)

Age: 26

Fit: 6/10

Reliability: 8/10

Attainability: 6.5/10

Upside Player?

Overall Rating: 5/10

Miami has seen what Kendrick Nunn is, and I think they’re done with his services. Miami may have looked at the playoffs to see which players are 16 game players and which are 82 game players. Nunn is a nice scorer who’ll get you some buckets throughout a season but doesn’t seem to strike me as a guy the Heat will go out of their way to retain. The attainability would be much lower if Miami didn’t have his Bird Rights. I expect to see him on a team that’s looking to build their youth next season.

 

We’re going to do some rapid-fire nominees for this last cluster of players that could be nabbed for a mid-level type of deal.

Cam Payne: Young, exciting, and much-improved backup in Phoenix. He’ll be a hot commodity for teams looking for depth. I expect the Suns to retain him with his Early Bird Rightsintact. Keep shooting sideways, Cam.

Ish Smith: A veteran who’ll more than likely ask for a minimum deal from whoever will have him on the roster. It feels like the man has been on every team. Could I see Miami adding him on a minimum deal? I can’t see why not. Gotta bring in the RSHKs sometimes.

Jeff Teague: No.

Elfrid Payton: Want a backup point guard that does nothing that well? Well, you could enjoy the Elfrid Payton experience for as little as no money this offseason!

Kris Dunn: Defense! But he doesn’t do much else. Can’t even get on the court, sadly.

Derrick Rose: I expect him to re-sign with NY for money Miami will not entertain to offer. It seems like a place he wants to retire, as well.

Dennis Smith Jr: A young project you could maybe take a flier on. His dunks are cool!

 

Thanks for reading part 1 of this series as we get closer to Free Agency. Stay tuned next week for part 2, where I’ll be going over the wings of the class.

Miami Dolphins

Fresh Perspective: Predicting the Miami Dolphins 2021 roster – Defense

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In the previous post, we broke down the offensive side of the 2021 Miami Dolphins roster. 26 players made the cut. In this column, the defense is in the spotlight. If there’s one thing head coach Brian Flores has proven he’s good at, it’s developing a defense. There’s so much talent, so many young players fighting to reach their full potential, the Dolphins could have the best defense in the NFL in 2021. That is not an exaggeration.

As a result, as difficult as it was to choose who makes the cut on offense, the defense will be even more so. With any luck, Miami will be able to stash a lot of the players who don’t make the cut on their practice squad. If not, GM Chris Grier will have to keep an eye out for other talented castaways from other teams. So far he’s had good luck finding diamonds in the rough. For now, he and coach Flores have to focus on polishing the ones they already have.

Defensive Line (6)

  • Emmanuel Ogbah
  • Adam Butler
  • Raekwon Davis
  • John Jenkins
  • Zach Sieler
  • Christian Wilkins

The first thing you’ll notice is the lack of pure defensive ends on this list. Everyone here is mainly regarded as a defensive tackle, with Emmanuel Ogbah being the only pure DE. So why would the Miami Dolphins send out a defensive line rotation that’s so heavily skewed in one direction?

It’s all about versatility and defensive alignment.

While it’s clear the Miami Dolphins want to run a hybrid defense, it’s equally clear their personnel is best suited for a 3-4 style. Their top pass rushers are listed as outside linebackers, and the defensive linemen they’ve signed are on the bigger side.

Ogbah is the main pass rusher in this group. Last season for the Miami Dolphins, he recorded a career-high nine sacks. However, he was brought in because he also had the ability to set the edge on run plays. That makes him an ideal fit as a 3-4 defensive end. He can attack from the inside, but he’s expected to attack from the edge more often than not. His teammates can handle the interior.

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Adam Butler was brought in from New England. While he spent a lot of time lined up as a nose tackle, he is more than capable of lining up anywhere on the defensive line. With the departure of Davon Godchaux, Butler is a perfect fit to take his spot. In a 3-4 defensive front, you want your ends to be on the larger end of the spectrum so they can defend against the run as well as pass rush.

Raekwon Davis made the All-Rookie team by the Pro Football Writers of America, acting as a disruptive force as a nose tackle and 2-gap defender. In layman’s terms, his job is to stop running backs from finding holes to run through. He did that well, and also showed proficiency rushing the passer. He isn’t likely to line up near the edge very often, but he’s obviously a lock to make the team.

Christian Wilkins hasn’t exactly become a superstar, but he is a very good defensive lineman all the same. He’s steadily improved since being drafted in the first round of the 2019 NFL draft, and the team is going to call on him to do even more in year three. Wilkins provides solid versatility in either 3-4 fronts as a defensive end on either side, or as a defensive tackle in a 4-3 look. So with the hybrid scheme Brian Flores uses, Wilkins is a perfect match as he’s capable of pretty much anything asked of him.

Zach Sieler burst onto the scene and earned himself a 2-year extension for his troubles, showing the same capabilities as his fellow defensive linemen. Ability to get penetration, get off of blocks to stop the run, and make plays just when they’re needed most. Just like Butler and Wilkins, he can serve as either a DE or a DT in Miami’s defense. Considering what he’s shown, it’s a no-brainer he gets to stay.

The final member of this defensive line is veteran John Jenkins. Why does he get the edge over the younger players on the roster? It’s because his run-stuffing capability is well-documented. He’s a perfect reserve nose tackle that can spell Raekwon Davis when necessary. Also, on short-yard plays, he and Davis will combine for a duo that’s almost impossible to get through.

Linebacker (7)

  • Jerome Baker
  • Vince Biegel
  • Andrew Van Ginkel
  • Benardrick McKinney
  • Elandon Roberts
  • Jaelen Phillips
  • Sam Eguavoen

This is one of the most straightforward lineups on the team. The competition won’t be too fierce here. All but one of the players on this list are easily better than the competition they face. Clearly, the headliner is Jerome Baker, who just signed a 3-year, $39 million dollar extension to be the projected captain of the defense. Baker has improved in every year he’s played. He can cover, stop the run, and rush the passer at any given moment. The ultimate chess piece for Brian Flores to play with.

Vince Biegel and Andrew Van Ginkel are outside pass-rushing linebackers, and they’re both very good at what they do. Biegel was acquired by Miami in September 2019 in exchange for Kiko Alonso, and Biegel quickly made himself a fan favorite with his intensity. He then suffered a torn achilles in 2020, ruling him out for the season. However, this did not deter the Miami Dolphins from bringing him back, as they signed him to a contract extension in the offseason. Biegel will be used most likely on obvious passing downs and special teams.

The same goes for Andrew Van Ginkel, who exploded onto the scene with his playmaking ability off the edge. Between tipping passes, sacking quarterbacks and scooping up fumbles for touchdowns, Van Ginkel proved that Chris Grier made an excellent choice drafting him in the 5th round of the 2019 NFL draft. He, along with Biegel, will be dangerous threats to any opposing offense.

Next are veterans Benardrick McKinney and Elandon Roberts. While pass-rushing isn’t their specialty, they make up for it with their run-stopping. They’re the ones who will be counted on to add extra physicality to the defense. McKinney is a Pro Bowl linebacker acquired from the Houston Texans in exchange for Shaq Lawson. Roberts was signed from the New England Patriots last season and turned into Miami’s “thumper” linebacker. The hard hitting man in the middle who made life miserable for running backs.

Obviously, McKinney is a vast improvement over Roberts. But the fact that Roberts is willing to stay as a reserve linebacker is a huge boost for the Miami Dolphins linebacker corps. Roberts will now be able to contribute more on special teams while McKinney adds his athleticism and toughness to the main defense.

Then we come to Jaelen Phillips. He is a pass rusher, that’s how he’ll be used most of the time. But if needed, he can easily drop into coverage if necessary. Think Dion Jordan, but with a good head on his shoulders and actually a hard worker. Imagine what he could have been. Phillips was drafted in the 1st round of the 2021 draft because he has the potential to be the best pass rusher that comes out of that draft. True, this is assuming he reaches his ceiling and stays healthy, but sometimes chances need to be taken. That’s Phillips in a nutshell. He’s listed as a linebacker, but don’t be surprised to see him line up as a defensive end from time to time. He has amazing versatility, and it’s not hard to see it.

The last one is Sam Eguavoen. At one point he was a starter on the defense, now he’s primarily a reserve/special teams ace. And that is perfectly fine. Special teams need good players too, and Eguavoen would be an excellent addition to that unit. However, Eguavoen could easily see himself looking for work once all is said and done. Many players at many positions make the roster solely on special teams performance. Eguavoen will not be the only one making a bid for it.

Cornerback (6)

  • Xavien Howard
  • Byron Jones
  • Noah Igbinoghene
  • Nik Needham
  • Justin Coleman
  • Trill Williams

In spite of Xavien Howard’s holdout, it’s highly unlikely that the star cornerback is going anywhere anytime soon. Head coach Brian Flores spoke on Tuesday about the situation, making one point very clear to the media in attendance.

“It’s a renegotiation of an extension after one year and it’s honestly something that hasn’t been done before.” Flores said on Tuesday. “I’m not saying that we’re drawing a line in the sand, but different players set the market every year. We love ‘X.’ Let me go ahead and say that right now, so you guys can make sure you write that. We love him. He’s very productive, he’s a team player. he’s an important player on this team; but again, unique situation. We want to keep him here.”

And unless something changes drastically and quickly, there’s very little reason to believe Howard won’t be a Miami Dolphin in 2021. The only other possibility that would make sense for the team would be to trade him while his value is at its peak. Even then, however, losing Howard would severely hamper the defense. Given Flores’s insistence on the matter, he’s sending a message he wants Howard on his team.

The man on the opposite side is Byron Jones, the highest paid corner on the roster. Some speculate that Jones making more than Howard is precisely what is making Howard so unhappy with his contract. But it’s more likely Howard simply wants more of his contract to be guaranteed. Jones is an elite cornerback in his own right. While he doesn’t create turnovers, he does shut down one half of the field with his tight coverage, forcing teams to throw the ball in Howard’s direction so he can pull down interceptions.

Together, they make a dangerous duo. The Miami Dolphins haven’t had a combination like this since the days of Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain. All the more reason to believe the Dolphins will find a way to make this work one way or another.

Then there’s second-year corner Noah Igbinoghene. With Howard holding out, the former Auburn standout is getting an opportunity to show what he’s learned since last season. Igbinoghene struggled during the two games he started in the place of Byron Jones, getting picked on by QBs as his unrefined play was exposed time and time again. However, according to reports from practice, the 21-year old corner is showing vast improvement.

“Honestly the offseason – my first offseason was huge for me. Just finding a consistent routine, just a consistent schedule, just working out and conditioning and just doing the same thing over and over again every single day.” Igbinoghene said on Tuesday. “That was the biggest thing for me and my growth this offseason I feel like. So the offseason was huge for me. It was a blessing just to go through it. God really moved in my life this offseason, so I thank Him and I can’t wait for the season.”

Igbinoghene’s growth is crucial for the Dolphins. Not just because he’s a former first round pick, but because if things go sour between Miami and Xavien Howard, Igbinoghene will be the first one they call on to fill his shoes.

Next there’s Nik Needham. The former undrafted free agent out of UTEP is a marvel to behold. He started out terribly, getting the entire fanbase and media to assume that Needham would be one of the first cuts made in 2019. But to the shock of everyone, Brian Flores kept him around, and since then he’s rapidly improved and is continuing to do so.

Needham offers a huge safety net for Miami, able to contribute either on the boundary or in the slot at any given moment. He even has value going on a blitz, recording one sack in each of his two seasons. Reports indicate that Needham’s improvement is continuing, so who knows where the ceiling really is? The rough is slowly eroding away, leaving a diamond in its place. Chris Grier and Brian Flores obviously knew something everyone else didn’t.

Then there’s Justin Coleman. He started his career with the New England Patriots, which means he’s familiar with Brian Flores. His claim to fame is his ability as a slot cornerback. After leaving New England, he signed a 4-year, $36 million dollar deal with the Detroit Lions to be their slot corner. He later became a cap casualty, but that was more to do with his dollar value, not necessarily his level of play. Coleman played well with the Lions, but didn’t live up to the big contract he was given. He should come out on top in the slot battle. If he doesn’t, then he’s one of the best reserves you can ask for.

The corner position wraps up with newcomer Trill Williams beating out the likes of Jamal Perry. Williams is an undrafted free agent out of Syracuse, which shocked many draft pundits as Williams has excellent length and versatility on tape. However, he does have a medical history, as he suffered in ankle injury in 2020 that ended his college tenure prematurely. His original plan to sign with the New Orleans Saints fell through after they hung a failed physical on him. Reports indicate that Williams is impressive so far, and he has plenty of value as a developmental prospect. If he can show up on special teams and make a few plays here and there like he did in college, he has an excellent chance at beating out some of the incumbents.

Safety (5)

  • Jason McCourty
  • Jevon Holland
  • Eric Rowe
  • Brandon Jones
  • Clayton Fejedelem

With the departure of Bobby McCain, someone at the safety position is going to have to step up to take his spot. Fortunately, there are plenty of options available.

While it isn’t set in stone by any means, there is speculation that veteran Jason McCourty could go the route that many older corners take in their careers and transfer to safety. His twin brother Devin McCourty is a star at that position with the New England Patriots, and there’s little reason to believe Jason can’t do the same. If the transition goes well, then the Dolphins would get a real veteran voice in the back of the secondary, someone who knows the defense and what shots to call, just like McCain did.

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The next option is rookie Jevon Holland, who was drafted 36th overall by the Miami Dolphins in the 2021 NFL draft. Holland’s time in college saw him playing his best football either at free safety or nickel corner, a ballhawk through and through. Not only that, he’s a willing tackler and has instincts that can’t really be taught. There are some things that are just innate traits, which could turn Holland into something special. Depending on how fast he develops, Holland could be an immediate starter alongside the next player on this list.

Next we have Eric Rowe, another familiar face from New England making an impact with the Miami Dolphins. For lack of a better term, Rowe went from a cornerback to Miami’s best tight end defender. With the exception of Darren Waller, who lit Rowe up no matter what he tried in Week 16, the former Patriot was able to limit pretty much any tight end he faced, including San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle, who some suggest is the best tight end in the NFL. Shutting him down is no small feat. With Rowe returning, at least one side of the field has a dependable safety.

Brandon Jones is also an obvious choice to make the team. He’s a hard-hitting safety who likes to play close to the line of scrimmage in run support, similar to another safety who made a name for himself in a similar fashion: Reshad Jones. In his rookie season, Jones had a few moments where he struggled with specific angles and techniques, but what was never in question was his intensity. Jones goes hard in every single play, and he’s learning quickly, both on defense and in special teams.

Finally, Clayton Fejedelem finishes the safety position off. He is primarily a special teams ace, but that doesn’t mean he’s boring to watch.

That fake punt is undoubtedly the biggest highlight of his career to date. He isn’t going to wow anyone with his speed, strength, or athleticism. However, he does what is asked of him and he does it extremely well. He’s a key player on special teams, and that’s something that cannot be overlooked. Punt returns and kickoffs can change momentum for a game in a heartbeat, so good players are mandatory on even the “boring” stuff.

Special Teams (3)

  • Jason Sanders
  • Michael Palardy
  • Blake Ferguson

The final three roster spots need no big explanation. Jason Sanders is the best kicker the Dolphins have had since the days of Olindo Mare, and he more than earned his 5-year, $22 million dollar extension to stay with the team. Sanders was the going away gift given to Miami by former special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi, who all but insisted the Dolphins find a way to get him on the roster.

Michael Palardy tore his ACL playing basketball with his son in the 2020 offseason, but he was on route to becoming one of the NFL’s best punters before the injury. Now Palardy finds himself trying to recapture that old magic with the Miami Dolphins. It remains to be seen whether he’ll ultimately be an upgrade over Matt Haack, who signed with the Buffalo Bills this offseason. One of Haack’s biggest problems is that he would make two incredible punts, and then proceed to completely botch the next two.

That lack of stability made it hard to justify extending him. Palardy offers a chance at more consistent punting. And, to continue with the recent theme Miami prefers, Palardy shares Haack’s left-footed kicking, which is meant to make the spin of the football more difficult for returners to field. Palardy is on a 1-year deal, so he’ll have to put together a great season if he wants to be brought back.

Finally, the long snapper is Blake Ferguson. As baffling as it was that the Miami Dolphins would use a 6th round pick on a long snapper of all things, it all made sense in a hurry. Brian Flores knew how important clean snaps were to help kickers and punters perform at their peak, which was explained by Jason Sanders’ personal kicking coach Brent Grablachoff in this exclusive interview with Five Reasons Sports. Ferguson is expected to continue his work and help Sanders reach that ever elusive 100% kicking milestone.

With that said, this concludes the roster prediction. All 53 slots have been filled, which means there’s still a lot of talent left for Miami to hopefully stash on the practice squad. Will this be a perfect prediction? Who can really tell? Training camp never fails to reveal a few surprises here and there. One player stumbles while another overachieves, and so on.

But that’s the fun of the offseason for those on the outside looking in. Finding out who will stick and who won’t. The only thing that can satiate that curiosity is to watch these players in action. Training camp will be here to make that happen in no time at all.

Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for seven years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at everythingtradeshows.com or call 954-791-8882

Miami Dolphins celebrate after Myles Gaskin's touchdown run against the 49ers.

Fresh Perspective: Predicting the Miami Dolphins 2021 roster – Offense

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One of the most fun parts of every NFL offseason is predicting which players will make the final roster, and which ones will be stashed on the practice squad or find a new home altogether. For the Miami Dolphins, this season is going to be the hardest yet. It’s hard to remember the last time Miami had so much talent across the board. Which means head coach Brian Flores will be having some difficult conversations at the end of training camp this season.

The best problem any head coach can have.

However, that does leave a lot of room for speculation. What is the best possible roster the Dolphins can field this season? Who doesn’t make the cut? This is the fun part of the offseason. In this article, we’ll break down the offensive side of the ball position by position. Starting, of course, with the quarterback.

Quarterback (2)

  • Tua Tagovailoa
  • Jacoby Brissett

There is no room for debate on this one. Tua Tagovailoa is the starting quarterback for the Miami Dolphins. There is no more Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now, Jacoby Brissett stands in as the veteran backup. An excellent choice all things considered. Brissett put together a 7-8 record as the starter for the Indianapolis Colts in 2019, and has thrown for 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in his career. If push comes to shove, Brissett is certainly capable of stepping in should something happen to Tagovailoa. GM Chris Grier made a smart move bringing him in on a 1-year, $5 million dollar deal.

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As for Tagovailoa, there was some drama after he let it slip that he wasn’t particularly comfortable with the playbook last season. NFL analyst and former safety Ryan Clark made it very clear that he thought Tagovailoa’s comments were a massive red flag.

Truthfully, Clark is right about one thing. Tagovailoa shouldn’t have said what he said. He slipped, and now that will be ammunition against him until he becomes the superstar everyone assumed he would be from the start. But head coach Brian Flores has a different view on the matter.

“My thoughts on that are – they kind of go back to what we talked about last week with him being more comfortable, him just having better command in the huddle right now. Honestly, I just think he’s comparing last year to where he is right now, and I get it.” Flores said. “I remember being a first-year position coach and coming out of that year, going into the spring, going into the next season and saying, ‘I could’ve been better last year. I should have been better. I’m better now.’

“So I think contextually, I think we all understand where he’s coming from given just the conversation I had with you guys last week, if that makes sense. I think he’s thinking about where he is right now versus that time a year ago, just reflecting. And that’s good. This time is about reflection and where you are now versus where you were six months ago. I think he’s worked hard to improve in a lot of areas, and I think he has and I think he’s kind of communicated that out.”

Aside from that one slip-up, all signs point to Tagovailoa being faster, stronger, and more confident than he was last season. His throws have more power, his command of the huddle is firmer. Considering where he started, rehabbing from a potentially career-ending injury, there are plenty of reasons to be positive about Tagovailoa’s development so far.

Running back (4)

  • Myles Gaskin
  • Salvon Ahmed
  • Malcolm Brown
  • Malcolm Perry

The Miami Dolphins have made it clear they think Myles Gaskin is more than capable of being their starting running back in 2021. They passed on Alabama standout Najee Harris in favor of Miami Hurricanes pass rusher Jaelen Phillips, and waited until their final pick in the draft to invest in running back. The selection of Gerrid Doaks out of Cincinnati should not have much impact out of the starting gate.

So what does Gaskin bring to the table? Effort. Gaskin showed last season that he will push and shove for that extra yard on every down. He has good vision, not elite, but he could continue to improve. An improved offensive line should also help with that. He’s an all-around running back, and he will be part of a committee, so it’s unlikely he’ll be called upon to carry the ball 20 times a game.

His former college teammate Salvon Ahmed and former Rams RB Malcolm Brown are projected to be the change of pace backs. Ahmed is quick and has some extra speed, while Brown is powerful. He’ll be used in short yardage situations. But there is one more player on this list, and that’s Navy standout Malcolm Perry.

On the official Dolphins roster, Perry is listed as a RB/WR. His versatility is chronicled in a previous article written last season. Granted, once Miami got their hands on Lynn Bowden Jr., Perry’s role diminished substantially. But where Bowden struggled as a running back, that is where Perry excelled in college. So moving him back to running back would be the best way to fit him on the roster. Plus, he also acts as another WR option should something go awry.

Wide Receiver (7)

  • Will Fuller
  • DeVante Parker
  • Jaylen Waddle
  • Albert Wilson
  • Preston Williams
  • Lynn Bowden Jr.
  • Mack Hollins

Wide receiver is arguably the most stacked position on the team. Certainly on the offensive side of the ball at least. With the addition of Will Fuller in free agency, and the drafting of Jaylen Waddle in the first round of the 2021 draft, the weapons Tagovailoa has at his disposal are already vastly improved. Fuller’s vertical speed is unquestionable. Waddle’s horizontal speed and chemistry with Tagovailoa will make defenses think twice before leaving him 1-on-1 in the slot.

DeVante Parker and Preston Williams returning gives Miami that needed size on the boundary, making difficult catches in difficult situations. Then there’s Albert Wilson, who took 2020 off due to Covid-19, and is already showing signs of being back to the same player he was when he first arrived in Miami. Along with Lynn Bowden Jr., there’s a plethora of ways this corps can attack a defense.

To round out the room, Mack Hollins returns as a key special teams player. Plus he also has some ability as a receiver himself, as evidenced by his performance last season.

Some notable exclusions include veteran Allen Hurns and All-Pro return man Jakeem Grant. It’s no secret that Grant has his following, and he will easily find work once he’s released. But there simply isn’t enough room on the roster for so many wide receivers. Waddle can act as a returner, as can Wilson and many others on the roster. They may not reach Grant’s level in that area, but sadly, kick returns and punt returns are slowly being phased out of the NFL for safety reasons. Grant’s niche on the roster may soon be obsolete. He will have to have a stellar training camp and preseason to prove he should stay at his salary.

Tight End (4)

  • Mike Gesicki
  • Adam Shaheen
  • Hunter Long
  • Cethan Carter

The tight end room isn’t going to be nearly as crowded as it is now when all is said and done. Obviously, the headliner is Mike Gesicki. Going into the final year of his rookie contract, Gesicki is primed for another strong season as a pass-catching tight end, which will undoubtedly lead to a huge payday.

“It’s crazy honestly. It goes fast. I know that sounds cliché and you guys want to hear me say something more interesting than that, but it goes fast.” Gesicki said in late May. “It’s crazy I’m already going into Year 4. But I’m just continuing to learn, trying to maybe expand my role. Right now, I’m just coming in here each and every day just hammering down the playbook, trying to learn this stuff and be able to be as versatile as possible for my position, so that’s really what I’m looking for.”

Gesicki is already looking excellent in OTAs, and mandatory minicamp is just around the corner. If Gesicki performs to the standard he did the last two seasons, the Dolphins will have to pay a lot of money to convince him to stay in Miami. But for now, he adds yet another dangerous weapon for Tagovailoa to look for in the open field.

Then there’s Adam Shaheen, who signed a two-year extension in October 2020 after proving himself a legitimate redzone threat and a more than competent blocker. Although he only caught 12 passes for 150 yards, three of those receptions went for touchdowns. Scoring always matters, and Shaheen has a knack for it. He is the favorite to be the second tight end.

Hunter Long is Miami’s promising young rookie. Some draft analysts have even compared Long’s proficiency in route-running to Rob Gronkowski. Can Long block like Gronkowski? That remains to be seen. However, Long does have excellent hands, and he knows how to be a weapon. If he can increase his toughness, there’s no telling what he could do. In spite of being selected two rounds later than Kyle Pitts, Long was the second tight end off the board for a reason.

The final tight end is Cethan Carter, who is more of an H-back. Similar to the role Charles Clay once played for the Miami Dolphins, versatility will be the name of the game. Carter’s specialty is in special teams. As an undrafted free agent with the Cincinnati Bengals, he made his claim to fame as a gunner and a downfield blocker. Head coach Brian Flores is on record saying he has a deep appreciation for special teams prowess. That’s what gives Carter the edge.

Obviously, the missing name here is Durham Smythe. The Notre Dame standout’s claim to fame is his blocking. Out of all the players in the tight end room, no one blocks quite like Smythe. But that isn’t enough to save him. Nowadays, offenses are up-tempo and focused on getting passes out quickly. Blocking tight ends are going extinct. Long has a higher ceiling than Smythe does, and that gives him the edge in the end.

Offensive Line (9)

  • Austin Jackson
  • Solomon Kindley
  • Matt Skura
  • Jesse Davis
  • Robert Hunt
  • Michael Deiter
  • Liam Eichenberg
  • Adam Pankey
  • D.J. Fluker

This could be the most talented offensive line the Miami Dolphins have fielded in a long time. However, it all hinges on the growth of its young players. Austin Jackson, Solomon Kindley and Robert Hunt are all projected to continue their upward trajectory, especially with a full training camp and preseason to help them prepare. Hunt in particular is someone to watch, as he moves inside to right guard to use his size and power to his full advantage.

The team has three primary options to take over at right tackle for Hunt. The first is veteran Jesse Davis. Ever since joining the team in late 2016, Davis has proven himself a top-level backup along the offensive line, and a low-end starter in a pinch. Having him be the starting right tackle isn’t the ideal scenario, but the Dolphins could do worse.

Another option is another veteran in D.J. Fluker. Miami signed him to a 1-year, $1,075,000 dollar contract this offseason after having ups and downs throughout his career. Inconsistency is his greatest enemy. Last season for the Baltimore Ravens, Fluker did a good job at right tackle after Orlando Brown Jr. moved to left tackle. Good, not great. If Fluker can stay in shape and keep up the momentum he built last season, he would be a solid choice to protect Tagovailoa’s blind side.

The ideal scenario is the rapid development of rookie Liam Eichenberg. The Miami Dolphins drafted him out of Notre Dame in the second round of the 2021 NFL draft, and he is expected to play right tackle at some point while Austin Jackson stays on the left side. As a left tackle in college, Eichenberg’s only real flaw, so to speak, was lack of athleticism and shorter than average (for the OT position) arms. Everything else about him, however, boldly proclaims he’s an excellent prospect who could become a very good NFL player in due time. His performance in training camp with pads on will be telling.

Adam Pankey is a depth addition. Much like last season, he’s unlikely to be active for very many games. But his measurables and limited game time clearly impressed the team enough that they were willing to re-sign him to a 1-year deal. Given Miami’s luck with offensive line health in recent years, Pankey making the roster makes sense.

The real question mark is the center position. The Miami Dolphins signed Matt Skura to a 1-year deal from the Ravens, reuniting him with his teammate from last season in D.J. Fluker. Skura’s problem is obvious. Now, Skura is doing everything possible to make sure snapping problems never happen again. So far, everything seems to be going smoothly. No reports of wayward snaps. His backup, unless something happens in training camp, is expected to be Wisconsin standout Michael Deiter, who has struggled since coming to the NFL. Deiter showed some improvement in limited snaps last season, but there’s still plenty of room for him to grow. He will have competition for the backup role.

So with that conclusion, the total count so far is 26. The next piece will focus on the defensive side of the ball and round out the roster.

Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for seven years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at everythingtradeshows.com or call 954-791-8882