How Erik Spoelstra Transformed the Heat’s Offense

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It’s a hectic scene in the Miami Heat’s locker room on the night of Dec. 13. To the immediate right is the franchise’s new star Jimmy Butler, recounting the last moments of a thrilling game to one of the biggest media scrums of the season. To the left is a Heat employee, chopping it up with Derrick Jones Jr and trying to figure out which pairs of shoes he’ll bring on the road.

Other players are clearing out, trying not to dwell on what happened 30 or so minutes prior. In a sense, they quite literally didn’t have time to. The Heat just lost a nail-biter to the LeBron-led Los Angeles Lakers, and they have a meeting with Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in less than 20 hours.

The Heat’s 113-110 loss to the Lakers was only their seventh defeat of the season to that point, putting them at 18-7 on the year. The loss also came under questionable circumstances; the NBA would later announce that Butler was fouled twice on the final possession – once before the inbound, and again during the potential game-tying three-point attempt.

From the outside, it’s easy to view this as a moral victory of sorts. The Heat took the Lakers to the wire, and very well could’ve won that game. For those who hadn’t watched the team closely to that point, the game served as a wake-up call. It was 48 minutes of proof that this team could beat anybody.

That isn’t how the Heat viewed it. 

This was a missed opportunity. There was an expectation to win. It isn’t enough to prove that they can compete with the top dogs; this should’ve been proof that they are a top dog.

That standard is why Miami wasn’t surprised when they started the season so well. That unwavering belief, that expectation of excellence, was instilled by head coach Erik Spoelstra months prior.

Laying the Foundation

While Butler was the prized signing of the summer, the acquisition of Meyers Leonard signified quite the shift for the Heat. Out went Hassan Whiteside, their max-contract interior force, and in came Leonard, a “spacer” that did most of his work in the background.

Spoelstra connected with Leonard almost immediately after the trade to get a feel for Leonard, as well as lay out his plans for him this season. 

“He came to L.A. to watch me work out two different times,” Leonard told me. “We went to lunch and he really wanted to get to know me. Which, first of all, that helped me understand just how much he cares.”

What further drew Leonard to Spoelstra was his commitment to improvement. Spoelstra rose through the Heat ranks as a video coordinator, scout and assistant coach before landing the head coaching job in 2008. His unorthodox path screams, “I work harder than just about everyone,” and that intensity was evident very early on from Leonard’s vantage point.

“The level of intensity is different,” Leonard said. “[Blazers head coach] Terry [Stotts] is a little more calm, cool and collected. The level of obsession Spo has with coaching is impressive. He is always bringing it, like, every day. I’ll never forget I was sitting in training camp during our first team meeting. He says, ‘I don’t want to wait,’ or something to that effect. ‘I don’t want to wait.’ So I’m like, alright, where is he going with this? 

“He’s like, ‘We have a very talented group of guys in this locker room, and coaches that are ready to make you guys better. I’m ready to start competing for a championship now.’ I’m like, wow, this guy’s with it!”

Not only is Spoelstra with it, he’s done it. He has been part of three championship teams in Miami, one as an assistant (2006) and two as the leading man (2012, 2013). It’s easy for newcomers to fall in line when you have that kind of pedigree. His video and scouting background, combined with his experience “in the trenches” allows him to connect on a deeper level. 

“This is a coach that’s made it to the top,” Solomon Hill told me. “I give credit to my past coaches, but [Spoelstra] has taken that next step, not just once, but a few times. Having that calm confidence about scenarios we may face kinda sets the standard.”

Hill also mentions that Spoelstra has an instant-recall about him, a nod to his scouting background.

“It’s crazy how his brain works,” Hill added. “He can tell you about a specific play against Dallas [in the Finals] that was a turning point, what happened here and what happened there.”

Spoelstra’s demeanor makes sense when you consider his path and background. It gives him instant credibility with players, and it’s a big reason why he and Butler have clicked.

That, and Spoelstra won’t hesitate to voice his displeasure.

“Thibs looks like he’d cuss you out in a heartbeat,” Butler told me. “Brett Brown didn’t look like that, he looked like a really nice guy. Spo looks like a really nice guy, right? He’ll cuss your a** out so quick.”

Being able to balance all of that – his experience, his intensity, his attention to detail and the human element – is what makes Spoelstra one of the best coaches in the NBA. 

“There’s the intensity, but there’s also the Spo that cares about you,” Leonard said. “The Spo that asks how you’re doing, and thanks you for what you bring to the table. It feels like he’s really in the trenches with us. It’s a very connected feeling with Spo, like you really want to go to war with that dude.”

Seeking out help

The main thing Spoelstra preaches is accountability. Knowing your role, accepting said role and giving everything you have. In order for him to hold others accountable, he has to do the work himself.

Spoelstra famously goes outside of the box to improve as a coach. He’s visited Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll to observe how Carroll runs things. Most notably, Spoelstra visited then-Oregon football head coach Chip Kelly to study his offense after Miami’s flop in the 2011 Finals. The Pace-and-Space Era began soon after, with Miami winning back-to-ball titles after they flipped their offense on its head.

This summer, Spoelstra attempted to make a similar shift. The Heat was (and is) known for their defense; Miami entered the summer having ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating seven of the past nine seasons. The offense, however, had been an inconsistent mess. That was especially true after LeBron James left the team after the 2013-14 campaign.

Spoelstra had new talent coming in. Butler was a perennial All-Star, a rugged-bucket getter set to give them a half-court boost they sorely missed. Replacing Whiteside with Leonard would give them more of a stretch element. Rookies Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn had shown real creation flashes during Summer League, though their regular season roles were in question.

Even with the shiny new toys, Spoelstra knew he had to reinvent himself. This time, he sought out the counsel of Jim Crutchfield, a coaching legend in the Division II ranks. Crutchfield took over at West Liberty University in 2004, quickly turning them into one of the winningest programs in the country over the next 13 years before resigning and taking over Nova Southeastern University.

Crutchfield compiled a 359-61 record from 2004-2017, giving him an 85.5 winning percentage. What intrigued Spoelstra wasn’t just the amount of winning, but the way Crutchfield racked up those wins.

“Over 15 years, we are averaging 100 points a game,” Crutchfield told the Miami Herald in an interview. “It’s not so much about points per game as efficiency and points per possession. We’re among the top in the country in points per possession. We do it via a motion offense.”

Spoelstra entered the offseason wanting to diversify the offense. With a seventh-place finish in offensive rating this season, it’s safe to say that goal was achieved. 

Xs & Spos 

Spoelstra didn’t copy-and-paste Crutchfield’s offensive philosophy. In terms of play types, the Heat’s offense looks almost nothing like Crutchfield’s. Via Synergy, nearly 28 percent of Nova Southeastern’s offensive possessions came in transition, while that figure was 13.3 percent for Miami.

However, you can see some similarities in their “early offense” actions, particularly with Bam Adebayo operating from the elbows.

The Heat have also expanded their toolkit in the pick-and-roll game. They’re running a larger share of them overall – 19.6 percent of their possessions have come via pick-and-roll this year versus 18.8 last year, via Synergy – and they’ve featured more bodies.

Via Second Spectrum, the Heat have run 7.2 “double picks” per game this season, up from 4.1 the year prior. Flowing out of the “Double Drag” alignment is something Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks, in particular, have made a staple, but the Heat have made good use of it as well. Among 61 players that have logged at least 100 possessions in “double pick” situations, the Heat have three players in the top-15 in efficiency: Nunn (2nd, 1.33 PPP), Goran Dragic (8th, 1.24 PPP) and Butler (12th, 1.21 PPP).

There were signs of more pick-and-roll variety in the preseason. When asked about it, Spoelstra expressed how he “loved the versatility” of his bigs. 

“Some of our offense is different quite naturally because of our personnel,” Spoelstra told me. “Meyers may make it look a little different with how he does it compared to bigs we’ve had in the past. Meyers’ shooting, Bam’s physicality and presence in the paint, [Derrick Jones Jr.] brings an immediate boost of energy when he comes into the game.”

Left out of that mix was Kelly Olynyk, who was recovering from a bone bruise in his knee at the time. Like Leonard, Olynyk went on to provide value as a floor spacer in ball-screen actions. Via Second Spectrum, Olynyk ranked fourth in the NBA this season in scoring efficiency (1.15 PPP) in pick-and-pop situations (min. 200 picks).

The Heat have done a better job of getting their ball-handlers downhill earlier in the clock. Via Second Spectrum, the Heat ranked 25th in points per possession (1.27) on shots within the first half of the shot clock. This year, their 1.35 mark is a hair behind the Dallas Mavericks for the league lead.

Of course, you can’t talk about Miami’s offense without mentioning their success with dribble-handoffs (DHOs). Via Synergy, the Heat lead the NBA in DHO frequency (8.8 percent of possessions), possessions per game (9.6), points per game (10.2) and efficiency (1.07 PPP).

Spoelstra has empowered Adebayo with more offensive responsibility, allowing him to flow into those two-man dances with Miami’s plethora of ball-handlers and shooters. The connection with him and Duncan Robinson has been particularly deadly.

 

Among DHO pairings with at least 100 possessions, the Robinson-Adebayo duo led the NBA in efficiency this season, generating an ungodly 1.32 points per direct handoff, via Second Spectrum. To put that into perspective, Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 1.14 points per possession in transition this season. 

Robinson is the biggest reason the Heat have been the NBA’s most prolific shooting team this season. He’s one of 28 players attempting at least 7.0 threes per game; he’s also the most efficient, draining 44.6 percent of those looks. 

Much like Adebayo, Spoelstra has given Robinson the ultimate green light to stretch himself. Spoelstra made waves when he called Robinson one of the best shooters on the planet, despite Robinson shooting just 28.6 percent from three in limited action last season.

Now, you could probably count on one hand the amount of shooters you’d take over Robinson in the league today.

Set for a Run?

The Heat now stand as one of the most interesting teams to track in this year’s playoffs. They will face the Indiana Pacers in round one, a team they won the season series against (3-1). In addition to the Heat arguably having the two best players in the series, the Pacers are entering the postseason with black marks on three of their five best players.

Victor Oladipo is still trying to work himself back from a right knee injury that robbed him of most of his 2019-20 campaign. Domantas Sabonis, a first-time All-Star this year, will miss the series due to plantar fasciitis. T.J Warren, freshly named to the NBA’s All-Bubble team, has been playing through plantar fasciitis all season, and that’s before getting into the trouble he’s had dealing with Jimmy Butler. An argument can be made that the Heat should not only win the series, but win it quickly.

A series victory over the Pacers would likely set them up for a showdown with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Heat won the season series, 2-1, and held a 23-point lead in the loss. They’ve shown they have the personnel to at least bother Antetokounmpo; that effort is spearheaded by the versatile Adebayo. 

Miami’s pick-and-roll and DHO attacks are uniquely qualified to neutralize the Bucks’ “drop” defense. With Milwaukee’s bigs hanging back to take away shots at the rim, it leaves them susceptible to the kind of looks that the Heat have thrived on all season. 

The Bucks will rightfully be favored in that series. They have the NBA’s best player in Antetokounmpo, a second All-Star in Khris Middleton and a deep cast of talented role players that allow them to go big or downsize however they see fit. 

But it wouldn’t be a complete shock if the Heat could pull off the unthinkable. 

Not to Adebayo, who thinks the Heat can “make a run and make noise and do a lot of things people said we couldn’t.”

Not to Butler, who told ESPN that he thinks the Heat can win a title this season.

And especially not to Spoelstra, who set the bar title-high at the beginning of the season. 

He doesn’t want to wait; neither do they.

 

Nekias Duncan (@NekiasNBA) works for a variety of outlets, but can be found frequently on Five Reasons Sports platforms, and has covered the past two NBA All-Star games for Five Reasons.

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5 takeaways from Dolphins first padded practice

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Dolphins players put on the pads for the first time this offseason, and the team made sure to keep a tight lip on what went down during Monday’s practice. When we’re able to spill the beans, 3 Yard’s Per Carry’s very own Alfredo Arteaga will have a juicy article.

But for now, let’s take a look at five key takeaways from yesterday’s Kyle Van Noy, Jerome Baker, and Ted Karras press conferences.

Kyle Van Noy is not going to answer questions about Tua Tagovailoa

One of the main focal points of the Miami Dolphins for the foreseeable future is QB Tua Tagovailoa. But as we learned Monday afternoon, some of the veterans are not going to be baited by the media’s questioning.

“Only defense or Kyle Van Noy questions” Miami’s new defensive playmaker said. And who can blame him? It’s only a matter of time before folks are asking New England how Tagovailoa compares to Tom Brady.

Tua is the future—the entire team realizes that. But just like Tua had to sit and wait his turn at Alabama, he must now do the same in Miami.

Josh Rosen to Jakeem Grant for six

Most people are ready to give up on 23-year old Josh Rosen, but I’m not. I liked the trade then, and I like it now. Tua Tagovailoa is the QB of the future. But what does the team have to lose with keeping Rosen around? Maybe he transforms into a valuable trade asset. Worst case scenario, he can be sheltered from the world and used as the Dolphins’ emergency QB.

Nevertheless, if all reports are true, Josh Rosen connected with Jakeem Grant on a beautiful deep ball. Throw of the day is what many analysts in attendance are saying.

Jerome Baker is learning from Kyle Van Noy

There’s no veteran player on the Dolphins roster that has fans pumped up like Jerome Baker. Whether it’s his balls-to-the-wall style of play or his quirky personality off the field, Baker is destined to break out in year two under Coach Flores. And with a seasoned veteran like Kyle Van Noy getting comfortable in South Florida, Baker has done everything he can to learn from the Super Bowl champion.

 “It helps me every day. Kyle, since the day he walked in, he’s kind of just been in my ear about anything and everything – if it’s on the field, if it’s off the field, whatever it was – he’s definitely been a great mentor, just an older vet, so I definitely appreciate that. I always make fun of him because I think he’s like the second-oldest player on the team. He’s definitely unique, but he’s a great person and also a great player.”

 

Rookie from Georgia impresses

During Monday’s press conference, one of Miami’s beat writers let it slip that Solomon Kindley was getting reps as the starting offensive guard. While we can not confirm nor deny these accusations, Dolphins center Ted Karras had nothing but high praise for the rookie.

 “I’ve been very impressed with all of the rookies that we’ve brought in this year and pretty much everyone on the o-line is really working hard and everyone is kind of finding their fit and earning their role. Those young guys have really been fun to work with so far. I’m really excited for not only this year but their careers moving forward.”

Prime-Time Tagovailoa

As you would expect, the talk of the town this offseason is 2020 5th-overall pick Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins franchise QB continues to take each day one step at a time.

First, here’s what Flores had to say about his young signal-caller:

“We’ll take it one day at a time. He’ll be out there today along with the rest of the quarterbacks and the majority of the players on the team. He’s looked healthy in the OTAs and walkthrough type practices. This will be the first one in pads. Yeah, he’s looked healthy. We’re taking this one day at a time with Tua, as we are with every player, and hoping that he improves on a daily basis. Like any rookie, he needs the snaps and he needs the reps to improve and get better and give himself a chance.”

And Dolphins center Ted Karras on how Tagovailoa handles himself:

“I think he always handles himself well. He’s a very impressive young man. I don’t have too many nuggets for him but I’ll help him out when he needs it, which is not often. It’s fun to work with all of the guys so far in this offense. It’s coming together and obviously we have a long way to go, but we’re getting there one day at a time.”

This article was written by Josh Houtz, part of The Extra Yard at 5 Reasons Sports. He doesn’t think Preston Williams should be on special teams.

 

E-5: EA Sports Madden Franchise must learn from Crash Bandicoot

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More and more news is coming out regarding EA’s alleged commitment to improving the long dormant “Franchise Mode” in their annual release of Madden. Back in July, after backlash from longtime fans regarding the lack of attention given by the developers to the classic game mode, EA came out to make sure fans knew they were heard, and vowed that things would change.

However, the initial announcements were met with skepticism. For years, EA has placed heavy focus on their Madden Ultimate Team mode, which is more reminiscent of a gacha mobile game than anything. Also, EA is unveiling an all-new game mode called “The Yard,” which has several similarities to the classic NFL Street franchise made by the same company.

“We wanted to create a new way for players to express themselves and take on small-sided football in an arcade-style experience that’s completely new to Madden,” Seann Graddy, Madden NFL’s executive producer, said in a statement. “Players will delve into all-new gameplay on mobile and on consoles that will bring to life the backyard football that NFL players and fans grew up loving, where the rules are relaxed, and you can win with attitude.”

It’s undeniable that their focus on newer game modes and of course their Madden Ultimate Team has been remarkably profitable to EA over the years. And it isn’t limited to Madden either.

According to their financial reports back in May 2020, EA numbers broke personal records in the year 2020. Through their Ultimate Team modes across all their sports franchise titles – which of course includes Madden as well as FIFA – EA generated a total of $1.49 billion dollars, which is a $120 million increase on last year’s revenue total of $1.37 billion.

But it’s that incredible profit margin that has fans of Franchise mode believing that no matter what the developers say, there will never be a truly increased emphasis on Franchise mode again. Several cuts to Franchise mode have been made over the years in order to give resources to the luck and mission-based gameplay that Ultimate Team offers. Legendary players such as Dan Marino and Randy Moss are relegated exclusively to these modes, while Franchise mode is forced to make players haphazardly create their own versions of the same characters.

There is a reason that many fans of the classic game mode yearn for the days of old. It isn’t merely out of a sense of nostalgia, it’s because they want to see the old mode evolve and immerse them in a realistic experience that hasn’t been seen since the Nintendo GameCube or PlayStation 2 generation of consoles.

It’s time for Madden to take a page out of an old platforming mascot’s playbook, and reignite the fanbase’s passion by revitalizing their past glory.

Every gamer out there knows Crash Bandicoot. Even if they didn’t know about him when they were kids, with the remakes of the original trilogy as well as Crash’s original (and best) kart-racing experience, you would have to be living under a rock to still not have at least heard of him. Now, the success of the N. Sane Trilogy has brought a full revitalization of the IP to the forefront, as Crash prepares to debut his first brand new game since 2008.

Much of the renewed success of Crash Bandicoot comes solely from a place of passion from both fans and developers, who wanted to ensure that Crash’s comeback would be successful by tapping into what made him great back when he first debuted. And it worked.

The remake of the first three original games – which released in July 2017 – sold over 10 million units by February 2019, with even more undoubtedly being sold since that time. Crash Team Racing Nitro-Fueled quickly surpassed even those numbers, breaking a franchise record upon launch as it sold over half a million digital copies upon its release in June 2019.

Those numbers cannot be denied. And unlike Madden, which always seems to leave at least one large portion of the fanbase unsatisfied, Crash Bandicoot has been met with almost universal approval and praise around the world.

If there’s one thing the world of gaming has shown, it’s that nostalgia is a very powerful tool to generate sales. Activision put Crash Bandicoot into hibernation after his last attempt to make a game in 2008 met with underwhelming results to say the least. But that game had strayed so far from Crash’s roots, it was hard to tell that it was even a Crash game to begin with. That is where things went awry.

The time has come for Madden to go back in time and use what fans loved so dearly about the old games and update them for a new generation. Bring back the Position Battles in Preseason so that there’s a point to playing in them. Reinstate the ability to have certain retired players become members of the coaching staff if the player so desires. And yes, bring back the Team Builder/Create-a-Team function that has not been seen since Madden 08.

The best way to introduce new features is to also give players something familiar to lure them in. Madden Franchise mode has so many old and forgotten features that could easily be brought back if the developers chose to. Already, EA has come out with specific future plans for improving Franchise mode post-launch, which includes gameplay tweaks for a more enjoyable experience. However, what they truly need to do, is to simply go back to the past and bring it to the present.

If they listen to the fans’ specific desires, much like Crash Bandicoot did, there’s no doubt fans will be saying “Woah!” again in no time.

Matchups for MLB, Marlins: Weekend of August 14

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With teams having completed between eight and 30 percent of the season, it’s hard to get a clear picture for MLB’s unprecedented 2020 season. Some contenders are rolling along, but some divisions are being led by surprise teams. With MLB’s trade deadline looming at the end of the month, here’s a look at some intriguing matchups this weekend.

 

Miami Marlins (8-4) v Atlanta Braves (11-9)

The Miami Marlins leading the NL East in August is not something anyone in the baseball world pictured happening. But here we are. The Marlins are coming off a thrilling 14-11 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays despite surrendering seven home runs. That sort of moxie seems to fit this rag-tag group which has been assembled piecemeal in the wake of a COVID-19 outbreak. Even with 20 players on the IL, the Marlins are making a run.

 

This weekend, Miami welcomes the Braves to town. The Marlins are finally getting their home opener, and the series is for control of the NL East. The Braves trail Miami by one game in the standings, but they’ll be without both Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies.

 

Missing their top two offensive weapons will hurt Atlanta this weekend. And while the Marlins might not scare anyone on paper, there seems to be something building around this team.

 

PICK: Marlins take two of three over the weekend, including the opener on Friday. (Pablo Lopez 1-1, 1.80 v Kyle Wright 0-2, 6.75)

 

New York Yankees (12-6) v Boston Red Sox (6-12)

The fact that this one isn’t for the lead in the AL East is a surprise as well. Boston’s bad this year., losing nine of their last 12 games. They’re heading to New York after suffering a four-game sweep to the Tampa Bay Rays. Boston’s been okay at the plate, but their pitching staff has posted the fifth worst ERA in the league thus far (5.24).

 

The Yankees, meanwhile, are coming off a two-game sweep of the Braves and sport one of MLB’s best offenses. They’re top-5 in runs, home runs, and first in SLG (.468) and OPS (.813). Aaron Judge, who sat out Wednesday’s game, leads the Majors in homers (nine) and slugging percentage (.758), and he’s tied for the lead in RBIs (20).

 

PICK: Yankees take this grudge match 3-1, including Friday night. Yankees will start RHP Gerrit Cole (3-0, 3.22) vs. Red Sox Friday.

 

Chicago Cubs (12-3) v Milwaukee Brewers (7-9)

The Brewers were supposed to be better, but certainly no one expected the Cubs to have baseball’s best record in mid-August. The Cubs are coming off a two-game sweep of the Indians after having their series versus the Cardinals postponed.

 

Milwaukee travels to Chicago with a team batting average of .220. Christian Yelich is hitting just .175 and Ryan Braun .143. The pitching staff’s ERA remains middle-of-the-pack, but the team has struggled for consistency, alternating wins and losses all week.

 

The Cubs, however, are rolling. They’ve won eight of their last 10 and they’re leaning on a pitching staff that’s top-10 in ERA and top-5 in OBA (.216) and WHIP (1.14). The offense is top-5 in OPS (.775).

 

PICK: Cubs take three of four in this one, including Friday’s game. Chicago starts Tyler Chatwood (2-1, 5.40) in that one.

First look at Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa

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Lots and lots of Tua Tagovailoa content has released over the last 24 hours and we have you covered!

For many Dolphins fans, Tua Tagovailoa was a pipe dream for countless years.

While most of us were all-in on the #TankForTua movement, it never seemed like a real possibility.

And then it happened.

Now, instead of losing sleep over whether or not Miami will draft The Franchise quarterback. We’re all waiting anxiously for the Dolphins to release some pictures and videos of Tua.

Well, if the 2020 NFL season is a full-course meal. Today, the Dolphins served us a healthy platter of Hors d’oeuvres.

After waiting nearly four months, the Dolphins finally gave us what we wanted. *insert Batista GIF*

First look at Tua throwing at Dolphins camp.

 

The Miami Dolphins also released a few breathtaking photographs.

 

‘Tua’ Documentary to air next month on FOX

The Dolphins weren’t the only ones that decided to give fans a glimpse of their new quarterback.

Yesterday, we learned that FOX will air a documentary showcasing the trials and tribulations of Tuanigamanuolepola and the 2020 NFL draft process. The film will air on September 6th at 4:00 PM EST–only on FOX.

Here’s a look at the official trailer.

Lastly, here are some of the best reactions from around the web.

 

Thank you, Miami Dolphins.

UFC 252: The Cormier Miocic Trilogy Ends Here

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Where to watch: Saturday, August 15, 2020, UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, Available on ESPN+ PPV.

Daniel Cormier, at the age of 41 fights for the last time this Saturday as he has promised that this will be the last time he walks to the octagon. This is not a showcase however, as he is challenging UFC Heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic in a rematch from his loss on August 17, 2019. Both fighters come in off this fight for equal near year long layoffs. The third in their trilogy (Cormier won the title from Miocic in their first fight on July of 2018) promises to show the biggest contrast in styles of all three encounters.

Daniel Cormier is telling anybody who will listen that “this time” he will go to his roots and use his wrestling to take control early and often in the rubber match. After winning with some dirty boxing, and finishing Stipe with a short right hand that dropped him, and then finishing him on the ground in round 1, he later fought the rematch with a confidence in his standup game, that seemed a bit unfounded, but then again, he was getting away with it till Stipe found a right hand in the fourth round that stumbled Cormier and ultimately ended the fight.

So how does Stipe Miocic win?

Box. Box. Then Box some more. Use left hooks to the body, but above all, keep your distance with jabs to the chest, then find the range for your right hands, and above all, be patient. Miocic has to “fight tall” in this one, to at the very least control the tempo. It can be argued that in their two first fights, Cormier controlled every minute of every one of the fights save for a short stretch in fight two, and the finish by Miocic in round 4. One thing that cannot be discounted is the body work Miocic did with the left hooks he kept hitting Cormier with in their 2nd fight. That investment probably led to Cormier consciously defending his body, lowering his hands, and being open for the punches that led to his demise.

So how does Daniel Cormier win?

Do what he says he is gonna do. In a recent podcast he did with wrestling savant and Jorge Masvidal meme Ben Askren, Askren said to “DC”: “I just want to remind you, you are world class, you are a United States World Team member six years straight. You can take this man down any time you want on Saturday night, just in case you forgot.”

It really could be that easy. DC is one of the best of all-time, a surefire hall of famer and nobody is going to hold it against him if he just controls Stipe for 5 rounds, gets his title back, and rides off into the sunset. I think he will do just that. With one caveat. He will have an opportunity to finish Miocic, and he will take it.

Prediction: Daniel Cormier (-115) wins by KO over Stipe Miocic (-115) (due to ground and pound/punches).

As for the main card, it features Magomed Ankalaev (-325) vs Ion Cuțelaba (+210), John Dodson (+145) vs Merab Dvalishvili (-210), Junior dos Santos (+110) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-155), Sean O’Malley (-345) vs Marlon Vera (+220).

All UFC 252 Odds cited are via SPREADS

Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.

Miami Hurricanes

The Most American Sport on the Brink Because of Modern Americanism

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The first college football game I ever attended was some time in the mid-80s. My dad, a university professor, taught at Texas A&M University and the local Dairy Queen would always give out cheap tickets when the Aggies played Rice. So we went.

And I was hooked. College football is something I’ve always known and loved. That only grew when I moved to Miami, and eventually went to the University of Miami. It serves as a bond in my personal life. An excuse to see friends and family, to meet in person when we otherwise wouldn’t have the time, unite for common cause, to be irrationally depressed when Dan Enos calls a tight end reverse, to over-analyze things that we have no control over.

One of the great things about it is that it is the most American sport, more so than even baseball. We view college football how the rest of the world views soccer. Regional identity with a school/club, “legends” that are beloved in certain circles, long forgotten the rest of the world over, bands, songs…identity. Even if you never went to college, you can identify with a college and feel part of something. College football transcends cities and rural communities alike. When people ask me why soccer never got into the American ethos like it did the rest of the world, the answer is simple…that space is occupied by college football. 

I never once envisioned a time when we would seriously have to consider how important it is, in the greater context of a society, because it all of a sudden feels so secondary. How important is this “game”?

More Than A Game

But that’s the thing…it’s not just a game. Sports is powerful because it is a reflection of society, the best and worst of it. It’s humanity laid bare, often subject to human error, including non-sensical pass interference flags after the national championship game is over. But the community-binding, the relationship building, the common cause…college football thrives in that.

I would never dismiss this as merely a game. It’s important..important to our communities, important to our states, important to rural areas. Athletes all over the country worked their entire lives to get to this point, and I don’t think a decision to not play should be taken lightly.

The American identity is wrapped in college football. You cannot separate the two.

And as the rest of the world heads towards normalcy under a global pandemic, we are faced with the mortality of a sport no one but Americans will miss. A mortality that we caused in a uniquely American way.

Selfishness Masquerading as Individualism 

No one could have predicted when a pandemic would arrive, but we certainly knew it would, at some point. The two previous presidents spoke at length about it.

Given the advance warning and the resources available to our country, why is it that we, a country that received a tertiary infection outbreak (China, then Europe, then here) lead the world in deaths from COVID-19? And why is college football, of all sports, the one that is up for the chopping block?

The answer lies within, the reason is in the mirror, and we as a society failed because for too long our selfishness has been draped in individualism and our wealth disparity excused as deserving haves and have nots. Those two forces combined to exacerbate the pandemic, driving it from something that could be dealt with reasonably to something raging out of control and left college athletics uniquely positioned to be unable to deal with it.

The primary failing is societal (and yes, political, very much political). The easiest way to get back to sports is to make society safe. But poor or non-existent public policy, rampant selfishness, fact denial, ignorance, and putting oneself above the collective good sent this country down a path that deviated from the rest of the first world and resulted in our society being disproportionately impacted. But that was always going to happen here. Why? The reduction of our free press into both-sidesm, conflating opinion with fact, operating under the guise of a marketplace of ideas, but whose real motivation is profit over information, resulted in an ill-formed public that struggled to discern the difference between an infectious disease doctor disseminating the best known information at the time and a carnival barker that was strategically placed opposite that doctor to offer a different perspective.

And “at the time” is an important phrase. We learn more about this virus every day, and with it, guidance can and should change.

Which is where gotchaism and confirmation bias come in, two things that lead a vocal minority to say, “this one doctor said this one thing that turned out to be inaccurate, therefore I can discount the entire pandemic because that’s what I really want to do anyway.”

The problem isn’t as harmless as some ignoramus claiming that the Spanish Flu Pandemic occurred in 1917 and ended the Second World War. The problem is that the actions of the vocal minority effects all of us, because they make us all less safe. And our society’s active willingness to give voice, agency, and platforms under the guise of fairness left us uniquely susceptible to the counter-factual bile that exacerbated and continues to exacerbate our COVID-19 impacts.

Eating vegetables is better for you and everyone, but there is a lot of money to be made in serving crap, which is the state of our public discourse. We’re suffering from lack of intelligence obesity. 

Indentured Servitude Masquerading as Economic Policy

If you’re wondering where the sports come in, and why you’re reading this here, well we’re getting there. But the preamble about why we were disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 is important to understand why college football is uniquely at risk. Because the challenges facing sports in our country are unique.

In Europe, there are still outbreaks, but they have a robust system of testing and quarantine after a positive test. Formula 1 driver Sergio Perez has missed consecutive races because he tested positive. Atletico Madrid will play a critical Champions League without a pair of key players. But these are the outliers, and it’s easy to isolate those cases because positive cases are so infrequent that it is easy to put in Draconian rules in the case of a positive result. Contact tracing, repeated testing, isolation of infected people…all possible when the infections are limited to a one off here and there.

We can’t do that in the United States because the virus is so prevalent. People are going to test positive. When MLB tried to quarantine “all over” it was only a matter of time before outbreaks resulted in massive cancellations. Any such outbreak would eliminate the football season.You can’t cancel games with opponents and opponents-opponents and then try to make them up later in football. Game-to-game recovery time is too long.

So administrators of the schools were essentially faced with 2 choices: (1) Admit they have been exploiting athletes for years, admit the athletes are not only actual employees but some of the most highly skilled people on earth, and provide them with a fair, market determined wage which would also empower players to participate in a bubble together similar to other sports that have been successful thus far, OR (2) try to figure out some way to get cute and appear they care while still managing to maintain the student-athlete fallacy that allows their enablers to give them cover while they exploit highly profitable labor. One guess at what they chose.

I’m not going to pretend to be able to predict the future. I’m also not going to pretend I’m in meeting rooms with these college administrators. But none of the plans rolled out were actually designed with the idea that players wouldn’t test positive. This isn’t subtext. This is text. ““We’re going to have positive cases on every single team in the SEC. That’s a given. And we can’t prevent it.”

So instead, administrators went pretzel twisting in an attempt to reduce the number of instances of positive tests (not the actual spread, just the number of cases they would have to acknowledge), to delay what they viewed as an eventual critical mass of poor test results arriving that would force the cancellation of the season. And before the B1G took a holier than thou disposition, they actually moved the Michigan-Ohio State game forward because they had no confidence of reaching the end of the season without having to shut down, and they wanted their marquee game to be played. Intentions are not being hidden. 

And, as momentum built toward the idea that the season might not go forward, the disingenuous hand-wringing started. Like this:

When was the plan ever to have “college towns” flooded with people like there wasn’t a pandemic? Or do you just want your football? As our Alfredo Arteaga of Three Yards Per Carry pointed out, schools are going to be out significant revenue even playing with empty stadiums, and that might have been the impetus for the recent shift in focus.

Further complicating things is the bad faith arguments from people who never cared about the players having agency, never cared about their well being, constantly telling them to shut up, that they’re lucky to play a “game,” all of a sudden deciding that what players care about is really important because they want football. The death rate could go to 50%, and they’d still say, “but football.” People like this windbag:

If the pandemic has taught us one thing, it’s that we can easily separate the people we disagree with in good faith from those bad faith clowns that reverse engineer logic based on the conclusion they wanted to believe in anyway. As Jadon Haselwood put it:

What the Bad Faith Brigade doesn’t realize is their overall behavior in fact denying, in pervasive anti-player stances enabling exploitation, and in continued objection to anything that contradicts their preconceived biases greatly increased the threat to society as a whole and college football specifically. College football players should have been paid long ago because in a free and fair society, markets determine your wage. Alternatively, you can collectively choose to unionize, believing collective negotiating power gives you more leverage, but with the negative effect of allowing your employer(s) to band together and enforce agreed upon rules, something expressly illegal in other circumstances. The NCAA operates in option 3. Make up some fake status of Student-Athlete, but exist in a society so resistant to change and so comfortable with exploitation as long as they aren’t the ones being exploited, that politicians will protect a system that actively prevents capitalism from happening.

Even in shamelessly using the players, this time attempting to give them the voice that they have long been denied, those nefarious people have once again reduced them to a pawn to placate their selfish motives. There are roughly THIRTEEN THOUSAND FBS players. Can we at least allow them the human dignity of having diverging opinions? Some will want to play with the plans the schools laid out, others will want to play with stricter safety protocols and an isolation bubble, others with different safety mechanisms that have yet to be openly discussed among all players mainly due to the complete lack of a recognized universal union (again, goes back to the student-athlete fraud), others will not play regardless (and many have already opted out). The players’ opinions are as diverse as America itself, and reducing them down to a soundbite and acting like they speak in unison so you can say “the players want” exactly what you happen to want (WOW! What a coincidence!) is the ultimate act of exploitation. 

The more people shout “open it up” unconditionally regardless of changes in how the virus acts, the more their selfish desire to have whatever they want whenever they want regardless of consequence is laid bare for all to see. America has become this exchange from the Sopranos:

Meadow: I’m a grown woman. I’m over 18 years old. I can I do what I want, how I want, where I want and can date who I want.

Carmela: Alright, Jesus Christ, we get it! Is that your only point here?! Because always getting what you want is for babies, not adults!

Who knew Americans would watch that and collectively think, “that Meadow has a point!”

Life inherently entails risk.  I’m not going to pretend to know what the tipping point is where we determine it’s too much risk for the players. You would think this is it:

And I certainly didn’t expect to be quoting Booger McFarland here, but:

I’m American, so I’m nothing if not inconsistent. I can’t definitively say where I land on this spectrum of should or should not play. I do know that if there are games, I will watch and write about it, and argue about it like it is the most important thing in the world, in an environment where my fellow Americans are suffering. I will not pretend otherwise.

But, anyone that argues that players should not be compensated for playing a game, that professional athletes are “lucky” to play a game, that have flippantly dismissed the hard work and skill it takes to rise to the top of a profession, reducing players to commodities, must surely be of the opinion to shut it down. How could an irrelevant game be so critical it must continue during a pandemic? And if they’re not advocating a complete shut down (spoiler alert: the Venn Diagram of those that think players should not be paid and those that think we should play football no matter what is damn near a circle), then we must logically deduce that they don’t care at all about the players, never have, and their opinion in matters of public health in relation to players must be dismissed. They only care about being selfishly entertained.

For the rest of us that have argued that sports are a public good, that they enrich our society, that they are of importance, the matter becomes significantly more complicated. It’s not just a game, but there is a point where the risks outweigh the rewards. Everyone can individually make that determination. The challenge for college football, however, is that there is no one to negotiate for the group. The QB of Clemson should have no more power in making health decisions than the backup tackle at Rutgers. And the decision is not binary. Each player has a point where they will no longer be willing to play, so it’s not simply to play or not, but under what conditions, who negotiates the conditions, and how does a school negotiate with people they insist are not employees?

And while some choose to trivialize a player’s stance for selfish reasons, the reality is that the devil will always be in the details. One of the things that is extremely powerful, but oft unused, is the ability to admit that we don’t know. COVID-19 is new, we don’t know a lot about long-term health impacts, indicators, and certainly how football players will cope. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey struck that note here:

My question is if we don’t know, should we not err on the side of caution? I’ll echo Sankey…I don’t know. More people than can fit in any college football stadium are dead. Most did not have to die. This is a global pandemic, but an American tragedy. We killed them. Now what? I don’t know.

But, I think the larger concern centers around the premise that college football is a quintessentially American endeavor. We, as Americans, collectively, have failed as a society. Failed to protect our most vulnerable, amplified stupidity, ignored facts and science, and completely fumbled our pandemic response. Several people involved in that now tell us it’s safe to play, don’t worry, the kids will be fine. Why should we believe them?

I want nothing more than to watch D’Eriq King sling passes to Brevin Jordan, to beat FSU again, to watch 15 SEC teams somehow be ranked in the Top 10, to try and figure out why Notre Dame is ranked in the Top 5 with 7 losses. That is a dream at this point. So is simply sitting in a restaurant and having a meal. The normal is now the aspirational.

We’ve put everyday Americans at greater risk because we couldn’t be inconvenienced, because we had to party, because we would rather believe in fairy tales than reality. We’ve decided that the desires of individuals were more important than societal good. We keep saying we can, no one bothered to ask if we should. We reached out to our fellow citizens and decided that they weren’t worth even the slightest of sacrifices for. And we’ve therefore created a disaster. The question I leave you with is this….does a nation of Veruca Salt’s even deserve college football in 2020?

 

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports and generally covers the Miami Hurricanes. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals: Upsets brewing in bubble?

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It took almost five months, but the wait was worth it. The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 is officially wrapped up and the eight best teams in Europe head to Portugal for three do-or-die single elimination matches that will surely have gamblers pulling their hair all over the world.

What does that mean for you and, most importantly, your money as anything can happen in 90 unpredictable minutes? Well, here is a match-by-match betting guide to help you discern who has the best chances to advance.

All odds are as of Saturday night based on the Las Vegas Bovada betting lines (https://www.bovada.lv/sports/soccer/uefa-champions-league). Draws will go into extra time and eventually a penalty kick shootout to declare a winner.

Atalanta vs. Paris Saint Germain (PSG +110, Atalanta +210, Draw +280): The fun starts on Wednesday with a clash between the tournament darling and the desperate spinster eager to prove it can rise above the rest.

Atalanta finished third in the Serie A standings, but it also is 9-1-3 since the restart averaging 2.3 goals per match.

In fact, it finished as Italy’s top scoring side with 98 goals in 38 matches (2.57 per match) and it won 4-3 at Valencia last time we saw it in the continental stage. However, the Italian side will be without its top scorer Josip Ilicic (personal reasons) and its starting goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini (knee injury)

Meanwhile, PSG is also riddled with injury issues and has “a very small chance” of counting with wonder forward Kylian Mbappé and key midfielder Marco Verrati. Couple that with the pressure of playing in neutral ground and to at least make it to a semifinal for the first time, and an upset is brewing.

Pick: Atalanta 2-1 PSG. 

RB Leipzig vs. Atlético Madrid (Spread: Atlético +130, RB Leipzig +230, Draw +215): Atlético is the favorite here, and rightly so since it is undefeated since the La Liga restart with a 7-0-4 record, including a thrilling 2-2 draw at Barcelona.

RB Leipzig has a “just happy to be here” vibe and it lost against Borussia Dortmund, its only high caliber opponent since the restart, but it did keep a clean sheet in both legs against Tottenham back in March for a convincing 4-0 aggregate over last year’s finalists.

However, Simeone has the coaching edge, Atlético has more talent, and I can´t envision an energy drink in the final four. Take Atlético Madrid and don´t look back.

Pick: Atlético Madrid 1-0 RB Leipzig. 

Manchester City vs. Lyon (City -375, Lyon +900,  Draw +450): Talking about just happy to be there, Lyon “VAR-ly” upset Juventus and will face a City squad that is riding high after defeating mighty Real Madrid with authority.

If you feel adventurous and feel Lyon can hang on to a draw, go for it, the line edged farther that way overnight.  However, the smart bet is to ride the hot hand and go with Pep’s boys from Manchester.

Pick: Man City 3-1 Lyon. 

Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich (Barcelona +225. Bayern M.  +110, Draw +270): A final in the quarterfinals, a clash of the titans that promises fireworks.

I dread this one because Barcelona came back fresh from the recess and made a statement with an inspired Messi against Napoli, but their defense is shaky. On the other hand, Bayern has the best odds to win it all made Chelsea its bitch with a 4-1 thrashing and a 7-1 aggregate on Saturday.

Expect lots of goals, so take the over on 3.0 there, as an inspired Messi and Lewandowski will shine for their respective sides. Bayern is more of a complete team, but I can’t go against the best player in the world on a mission, and I expect him to be clutch and come through with Barcelona in a way I wouldn’t if it was him playing for Argentina.

Pick: Barcelona 3-2 Bayern Munich 

NHL Playoffs: Breaking down the next round

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The NHL has released its official playoff schedule following the end of the Stanley Cup Qualifiers, where eight teams were eliminated to form the 16-team playoff bracket. While this year has been a year like no other, what with the COVID-19 pandemic halting play before the end of the regular season, the NHL will hold the Stanley Cup Playoffs now in its two hub cities, Toronto and Edmonton.

 

Eastern Conference

 

#1 Philadelphia Flyers (49-21-7) vs #8 Montreal Canadiens (31-31-9)

 

Both of these teams have underdog status after Philadelphia went from second place in the Metropolitan Division to the #1 seed after winning its three round robin matches and the Canadiens finished off an improbable 3-1 series versus the 5th seed Pittsburgh Penguins in the qualifying round.  While the Flyers are favored to win this series, they have been known to get lazy when they feel an easy matchup in the wind. The Canadiens are also coming off those big wins versus the Penguins, led by Jeff Petry (two game-winning goals) and goaltender Carey Price, whose experience far outpaces that of the Flyer’s 21-year-old goalie, Carter Hart. Price will have his work cut out for him defending the Flyers’ four 20+ goal scorers (Giroux, Couturier, Hayes, Konecny), however, so look for goaltending to make or break this series and don’t be surprised if Montreal pulls off the upset.

 

Game 1: Wednesday, Aug 12 8pmEST

 

 

#2 Tampa Bay Lightning (43-21-6) vs #7 Columbus Blue Jackets (33-22-15)

 

The Blue Jackets shocked the NHL when they swept the #1 ranked Lightning last season in the first round, which makes this rematch one of the most interesting series of the 2020 playoffs. The Lightning, who had tied the NHL regular season record for wins that year, as well as scoring a record-breaking 128 points, psychologically crumbled versus the Blues. This year, they’ll look to prove that last season’s early exit was just a fluke. However, Tampa Bay will be without Captain Steven Stamkos, who is dealing with a leg injury, for the foreseeable future. This should be a high-scoring series between two teams familiar with the playoffs (and with each other).

 

Game 1: Tuesday, Aug 11 3pmEST

 

 

#3 Washington Capitals (41-20-8) vs #6 New York Islanders (35-23-10)

 

The story to watch in this matchup will be that of Barry Trotz going up against his former Stanley Cup winning squad. The current Islanders head coach helped the Capitals win the franchises’ first championship just a couple of years ago, but now his road to the Cup leads through the Caps instead of with them. Despite the Islanders being the lower ranked seed, Trotz’s knowledge of the Capitals, who still have 12 players who were on that Cup-winning roster in 2018, will be imperative in this matchup, and could lead to the Isles stealing the show like they did in their qualifying round series versus the Florida Panthers.

 

Game 1: Wednesday, Aug 12 3pmEST

 

 

#4 Boston Bruins (44-14-12) vs #5 Carolina Hurricanes (38-25-5)

 

The Bruins return to play has been less than ideal, with the team losing all three of their round robin matches against the Flyers, Lightning, and Capitals. During that time, Boston only put together four goals, but their play did improve with each game and star goaltender Tuukka Rask was ruled unfit for play twice, which could have something to do with the losses. Rask is expected to play on Tuesday. Look out for individual play from the Canes’ Andrei Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho and the Bruins’ David Pastrnak. Svechnikov had his first NHL hat trick in Game 2 of the qualifying round versus the Rangers and has had a breakout season with 61 points in 68 games. Aho has momentum of his own as well, with eight points against New York (three goals, five assists) and 20 points in 18 NHL postseason games. But Pastrnak has been a machine this season, tying Alexander Ovechkin for the most goals (48) and finishing first in power-play goals (20) and third in power-play points (38).

 

Game 1: Tuesday, Aug 11 8pmEST

 

Western Conference

 

 

#1 Vegas Golden Knights (39-24-8) vs #8 Chicago Blackhawks (32-30-8)

 

The Blackhawks finished at the bottom of the Western Conference rankings in the regular season with just 72 points but managed to scrape into the Qualifiers with the 12th seed. In their return to play, Chicago has looked like a completely different team, winning the qualifying series versus the 5th-seeded Edmonton Oilers 3-1 with 16 total goals. The Hawks’ regular season woes are clearly behind them and they come into the series with a core of three-time Cup winners in Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Duncan Keith. However, the Golden Knights are having another championship-worthy season, finishing at the top of the Pacific Division in the regular season and winning all three of their round robin matchups versus the Stars, Blues, and Avalanche. Vegas also has upside at goalie with three-time champion Marc-Andre Fleury in the net, backed up by Robin Lehner, who played twice in the round robin games, winning each with a combined .903 save percentage. Meanwhile, Chicago’s goaltender Corey Crawford has been trending upward after struggling in the first two games of the qualifying round series. Though the Blackhawks have a lot going for them, it will probably not be enough to beat out the Golden Knights, who are quickly becoming familiar faces in the playoffs in only their third year of existence.

 

Game 1: Tuesday, Aug 11 10:30pmEST

 

 

#2 Colorado Avalanche (42-20-8) vs #7 Arizona Coyotes (33-29-8)

 

The Avalanche looked good in their round robin play with two victories over the Blues and Stars, including a shutout versus the latter, and a one-goal loss to the Golden Knights. General manager Joe Sakic, who had an illustrious 21-year career with the Avalanche, including two titles in ’96 and ’01, has stayed with the team long after his retirement from playing to put together one of the deepest rosters in the NHL. The Avalanche are led by young stars Nathan MacKinnon, a finalist for the Hart Trophy, and Cale Makar, a finalist for the Calder Trophy. Meanwhile the Coyotes are on somewhat new territory, this being their first time in the playoffs since 2012. However, they pulled off the upset over the sixth-seeded Nashville Predators in the Qualifiers and have lots of momentum coming into the first round. Goaltender Darcy Kuemper is hot right now, with a .933 save percentage versus the Preds.

 

Game 1: Wednesday, Aug 12 5:30pmEST

 

 

#3 Dallas Stars (37-24-8) vs #6 Calgary Flames (36-27-7)

 

The Stars have had a newsworthy season, if only because of the firing of head coach Jim Montgomery in December. Dallas replaced him on an interim basis with Rick Bowness, who was previously an assistant coach in the organization. It should be interesting to see how Bowness shakes things up, but both teams should have a fairly straightforward approach to the playoffs. The Stars will be looking for a shift in momentum, as they’ve been trending down for some time now, losing eight of their last nine, with the one win coming on Sunday’s round robin matchup versus the Blues, where Denis Gurianov managed to pull out the W in shootouts. The Flames, meanwhile, have been scoring big with 16 total goals in their 4-game series versus the Jets, including one six-goal outing and a 4-0 shutout to decisively take the qualifying round. Expect this series to be close and physical.

 

Game 1: Tuesday, Aug 11 5:30pmEST

 

 

#4 St Louis Blues (42-19-10) vs #5 Vancouver Canucks (36-27-6)

 

While the Blues took first place in the Central Division at the end of the regular season, not to mention winning the Cup last year, their return to play in 2020 has been shaky at best. St Louis lost all three of their round-robin contests versus the Avalanche, the Golden Knights, and the Stars, the last in a heartbreaking shootout. And history is not on their side in this matchup versus Vancouver. The Canucks have played the Blues three times in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the latest in 2009, and won all three times. Furthermore, Vancouver is hot from a 3-1 qualifying series versus Minnesota where they managed to shut out the Wild once and win the series in an OT thriller off a Christopher Tanev wrister 11 seconds into overtime. The Blues will need to take over the third period if they hope to win this series, as they entered the third with the lead in all three of their round robin games, only to be outscored by a total of 6-0.

 

Game 1: Wednesday, Aug 12 10:30pmEST

What Florida Panthers need in a new General Manager

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5 Things The Florida Panthers Should Look For in Their New GM

 

On Friday afternoon, the Florida Panthers suffered another loss filled with easily avoided mistakes to the New York Islanders in the qualifying round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The 5-1 defeat sent the Islanders to the next round and the Panthers home with a bitter, yet familiar, feeling. The last time the Panthers made the playoffs was in 2016, when they won the Atlantic Division but lost to the same team, the Isles, in the first round, which makes this last loss particularly hard to swallow. What have the Panthers learned from 2016? Not much, it seems, and not much in the last 24 years, dating back to the last time they won a playoff series. Something needs to change, and that started with the reported firing of longtime General Manager Dale Tallon immediately following the game.

Here’s what the Panthers need to look for in a new GM:

 

#1: High quality drafting

 

Tallon spent the first four years of his 10-year stint with the Panthers doing some impressive work in the draft. In his first year as the Panthers GM, he drafted defenseman Erik Gudbranson and forward Nick Bjugstad, both of which have since moved to different clubs but served the Cats well. Tallon continued to draft well over the next few years, taking a generational talent in center Aleksander Barkov (2013) and big Panthers names like Jonathan Huberdeau (2011), Vincent Trocheck (now on the Hurricanes), and Aaron Ekblad (2014). Some of his later picks, like seventh rounder MacKenzie Weegar (2013), have also proved prosperous. But drafting fell off after 2014 with few of the Cats’ picks getting ice time. 

 

If the Panthers want to be serious playoff contenders, they need a GM who can do what Tallon did in his heyday and draft young, talented players to learn under experienced veteran leaders. With the loss to the Isles, the Panthers can at least look forward to a chance at drafting Alexis Lafreniere if they get a good position in the lottery draft. 

 

#2: Reduction of contractual mistakes

 

As things go in any pro league, there are inevitable mistakes made when it comes to contracts, but the last few years have been a bit harder on the Panthers than many would expect.

 

Tallon’s previously salvageable legacy was effectively and brutally tarnished by the moves he made in the Vegas expansion draft. The loss of Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith for what amounts to nothing, as well as trading Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann to Pittsburgh (also for basically nothing but more contractual obligations), is too much to even get into. 

 

Then there’s the recent controversy over Mike Matheson. You could ask most Panthers fans over the last few years what they thought of Mike Matheson and they probably would’ve given you a glowing review of the 26-year-old defenseman. But Matheson is on the hot seat now after committing two excessively violent penalties against the Isles in the first two games of the series, including a hit against Johnny Boychuk which took him out of play for the rest of the series. Matheson was benched, and if the problems persist into next season, the Panthers may have a big problem offloading his contract, which has five more years and over $24 million left on it. 

 

But Matheson is chump change compared to the catastrophe that was the signing of Dave Bolland. In 2014, the Panthers signed Bolland to a five-year, $27.5 million contract. In two seasons, he played in only 78 out of 164 possible games due to injuries. Eventually, the Cats sent him to the Arizona Coyotes for a couple of picks, but Bolland never played another game. Just a few millions down the drain…

 

The Panthers new GM can’t make these mistakes. Players must be evaluated, not only for talent, but also for physical health and decision-making, especially when it comes to how they will represent the team. Not every player, no matter how talented they may be on the ice, is worth a long-term contract.

 

#3: Understanding of a winning formula (with an emphasis on consistency)

 

When the Cats won the Atlantic Division in 2016, it was because of a very specific player formula. The Panthers took their young core (Barkov, Huberdeau, Bjugstad, Trocheck, Ekblad) and let them grow under the leadership of hockey legends Jaromir Jagr and Roberto Luongo, as well as veterans like Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Brian Campbell, and Willie Mitchell, amongst others. 

 

Having a team of young stars is great, but you can’t blame them (at least, not entirely) when you run into consistency issues. Most young players won’t know how to win in a professional setting unless and until you teach them, and the easiest way to do that is to let winners teach them. The Cats’ consistency issues recently may be a result of having only four players over 30 on the roster. While deserved, it does say something that the team captain is only 24 years old.

 

#4: Development of a young goaltender

 

What can we say about Sergei Bobrovsky? The 31-year-old goalie has definitely had his moments this season, but his contract, signed by Dale Tallon, has definitely put the Panthers in the hole for the next six seasons. Bobrovsky lucked into a 7-year, $70 million contract with the Panthers only because of Tallon’s incompetence. 

 

The Panthers have cycled through a few young goaltenders since Roberto Luongo’s retirement, including AHL call-up Sam Montembeault, who had a few of his own moments as a backup to Bobrovsky, and Chris Driedger, who signed a two-year contract extension with the Panthers last year. Either or both of these two could turn out to be valuable aspects of the future of the organization, but they are also competing against the Panthers first round draft pick of last year, Spencer Knight. Knight is the first goaltender ever taken in the first round by the franchise, and was ranked as the top eligible goaltender in the 2019 Draft.

 

One of these three goalies needs to prove himself a standout to take over as Bobrovsky’s backup (and maybe even to supersede him). But it will take some development to make it happen, and that will have to fall on the new GM’s shoulders.

 

#5: Locking up stars Mike Hoffman and/or Evgeni Dadanov (or replacing them)

 

The Panthers new GM will also need to look at keeping two of their most valuable players, Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadanov, locked up for the next few years, after they become free agents this season. 

 

Hoffman was the Panthers third-leading goal scorer this season with 29 goals and 30 assists in the regular season and three in the qualifying round to lead the team. His talents lie especially in the power play, where he dominates, but he is productive in most, if not all, aspects of the offense. His price will likely come in at around $7 million a year, but if the Panthers can keep him on, it seems worth the cap hit. 

 

Dadanov, meanwhile, has proved himself a worthy addition after some swapping around early in his NHL career. The right wing has scored at least 25 goals in his last three seasons, topping off at 70 points in the 2018-19 season, and frequently joins Huberdeau and Barkov on the Panthers’ first line. 

 

The Cats will need to balance the two players’ worth on the ice with their worth in their wallets because it will almost certainly take some big bucks to keep either of them in South Florida. It seems likely that at least one of them will have to be let go.