The odds favor Tua Tagovailoa being selected by the Miami Dolphins in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Pressure Point: Tua Tagovailoa the right pick for Dolphins

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Finally, the day that everyone invested in the Miami Dolphins has been obsessing over for a year.

All the agonizing and analyzing, hand-wringing and hoping through a lost season has led to the most important draft in Dolphins franchise history.

Remember, everyone thought they were “Tanking for Tua.”

Now Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is within reach and there are plenty of NFL experts, followers and, yes, some Miami fans too, saying the Dolphins should resist the temptation of a very talented player with a troublesome injury history.

Five Reasons complete NFL Draft guide

So what do the Dolphins do with the No. 5 pick in the draft?

They take Tua, of course.

Not as simple a call as it would have seemed months ago, before Tagovailoa’s college career ended with a serious hip injury.

Still, it’s the one Dolphins chiefs —GM Chris Grier, coach Brian Flores and owner Steve Ross — should make with their first of three picks in the first round. Even if they have to deal some of their ample draft capital to the Detroit Lions to move up to No. 3.

Alfredo Arteaga for Five Reasons: Final Mock Draft

Injury concern has merit

No question, there are legitimate concerns about Tua’s durability.

The Dolphins were dealt a problematic hand in this pursuit. It’s like being told, you can have your dream house, but it’s not constructed to South Florida hurricane codes and could blow away at any time.

But if not for those questions, Tagovailoa would be the No. 1 pick in the draft and out of Miami’s reach.

Fate has given the Dolphins a side door to the caliber of quarterback that has eluded them since Dan Marino retired. They have let too many others slip past them while shuffling through 21 imposters over two decades.

Time to roll the dice. Gotta take Tua.

This beleaguered franchise can’t afford another Drew Brees debacle.

Ethan Skolnick: Hey Dolphins, be smart like Heat in building team

Saban made wrong call

Ironically, it was Alabama coach Nick Saban saying this week it would be a mistake to pass on Tagovailoa over injury concerns. Saban, of course, doomed his tenure as Dolphins coach in 2006 when he opted for Daunte Culpepper after team doctors failed Brees over concerns about his shoulder.

Brees is still padding his Hall of Fame stats in New Orleans.

Dolphins fans haven’t forgiven Saban, and they will run this regime out of town if Tagovailoa goes on to have a brilliant career as a Los Angeles Charger.

Sure Tua is a risk. It’s why this draft holds more intrigue for the Dolphins than any in memory.

It’s also a risk to pick the wrong QB.

Five Reasons Sports live draft coverage

Herbert not the answer

In the days leading to the draft there has been a rising chorus of voices in the industry saying the Dolphins should pick Oregon’s Justin Herbert at No. 5.

Herbert may go on to a solid NFL career. He could also prove to be Ryan Tannehill II.

There is no evidence to suggest he’s the next Marino.

Herbert is not a player you tank for. He has size and athleticism, but he is not a passer that excites like Tagovailoa. Not even close.

Tua has that magic touch you crave at quarterback. It’s been evident since he came off the bench to lead ‘Bama from 13 down to the national title as a freshman.

The only legitimate safer pick would be Joe Burrow, who is a lock to go No. 1 to the Bengals.

There’s no guarantee of longevity in the NFL with any pick. The Dolphins chose Jake Long over Matt Ryan in 2008, and the big tackle broke down prematurely. Ryan, who went to the Falcons, remains another reminder of a franchise quarterback that the Dolphins let get away (thank you, Bill Parcells).

Dolphins could pull surprise move

Dolphins officials have played an impeccable poker hand throughout this process, carefully shielding their intentions. That is why there are so many differing claims about what they will do.

With 14 picks in the draft, including three in the first round (Nos. 5, 18 and 26), anything is possible.

Numerous trade scenarios have been floated. The most audacious I’ve seen was a suggestion of the Dolphins dealing their latter two first-round picks and No. 39 in the second round to the Lions for No. 3. Then use it to take the top offensive tackle and still make their No. 5 pick for the quarterback of their choice.

The unknown is what another team, notably the Chargers at No. 6, would be willing to give to move up to 3, and what the Lions would demand.

The Grier-Flores leadership is also difficult to read. Personnel moves through the first year of the collaboration have been unconventional, often eyebrow-raising.

Don’t be surprised if they completely surprise in their approach to this draft.

Offensive tackle a must in draft

The Dolphins have a lot of needs and objectives. Regardless of which quarterback is targeted, they must come out of this draft with a cornerstone tackle to protect him.

They also must give him more playmakers to work with. There is depth at running back and receiver, which can be obtained beyond the first round.

Defense is always a priority for Flores. He can’t get enough secondary help and he desperately needs to upgrade the pass rush, even though free agency brought some help.

But it all starts with quarterback. There is a potential transcendent talent there for the taking, albeit with a concerning caveat.

Don’t over-think it, Dolphins.

Gotta take Tua.

Rodger Sherman, in a statistical analysis for TheRinger.com, showed that Tagovailoa has the highest passer efficiency rating (199.4) in college football history by a considerable margin, as well as the most adjusted yards per passing attempt and highest touchdown rate.

Tua also has that intangible quality that only the best possess.

Nobody better understands the need for self-preservation in moving to the pros than Tagovailoa, after what he’s been through.

He’s been working with former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer on adjustments he must make, as well as with NFL coach Ken Whisenhunt on the  mental and technical side of playing the position in the pros.

Mistake to pass on Tua

Kirk Herstreit, one of the most respected observers in college football, says it would be a mistake to pass on Tua.

I agree — and horror of horrors, I agree with Saban as well — at least when it comes to Tua.

The Dolphins should take Tagovailoa, then spend the rest of the draft putting as many useful pieces around him as they can with the barrel full of picks at their disposal.

When all that is done, let’s hope there is a 2020 NFL season so we can begin to see how it all plays out.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and its teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

This is the Most Important Dolphins Draft. Ever.

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Miami Dolphins, if you want my money after we come out of this Coronavirus Crisis then you need to do the right thing and make this pick count.

 

I am the father of an 11-year-old boy whose exposure to Dolphins highlights has been limited to the Miami Miracle against the Patriots and—well, both of the wins against the Patriots. I could be selfish and say that I want more, but in all honesty, I want more for him. Like any parent, I am in love with my kids no matter what. With my daughter, it’s about doing things she wants to do and that’s weekly Hallmark Channel movies with me wondering what happened to Winnie Cooper, DJ Tanner, and Gretchen Wieners. With my son it’s about what I want to do and living vicariously through him.. And yes it’s selfish, but I temper that by knowing that he wants to do it too. Youth basketball? Check. Toss the football around the yard? Check. Watch games all day Saturday and Sunday? Check. Get crushed in NBA 2K even though I have the Warriors and he’s got the Knicks? Check. Have debates over how the Dolphins are mediocre or a dumpster fire instead of the great player impacting winning? Mmm, no thanks. Please, Miami, make the right pick.

 

My son is of the age, like many others, who are not just aware of sports but are fans of it. He’s the even rarer breed for a kid his age to know key players in college football and to be steadfast in his opinion of who is great and who is—in his words—trash. He eats up stats because he loves math. He even got excited with my fumbling explanation of how the salary cap, free agency and trades work. God knows what will happen if I decide to let him do fantasy football. Miami Dolphins, don’t you want someone like my son to be so excited about this team that he will pore over every box score after every game? If so, Miami Dolphins, make the right pick.

 

He has Heat jerseys, shirts, hats and basketballs. He wore his DWade jersey as we watched replays of the championship runs during this quarantine. Don’t you want someone whose name can excite a fan base? Don’t you want someone who’s name can move that kind of product? Hell, I still have an old Marino jersey that I gave to him just so he could be somehow associated with greatness. Make the right pick and I’ll be the schmuck who overpays for the merch!

 

We’ve been to Miami Heat games and I am happy to say that we are undefeated in all four that we’ve attended. I took him to a Miami Hurricanes game that ended in a win. I take him to his first Miami Dolphins game and it’s a big fat L! And it was against the winnable Detroit Lions! And I aged considerably just trying to get out of the parking lot. But you know what? I would go again with my son because there is a feeling that comes with being at a live game in person that cannot be replicated at home watching on the TV. Sure the bathrooms are cleaner but that’s neither here nor there. Ultimately, my son enjoys the experience as well. But know this: make the right pick and I will go because we all want to ride the wave of excitement!

 

Listen Miami. I’ll admit that I was a spoiled Dolphins fan who loved Marino and took him for granted, even towards the end. I would like for my son to be excited for this team like I was in the 80s up until Saban left. Yes, even the Saban years. That period of fandom—my period of fandom—at least had promise. Other than the strike year and Marino’s Achilles injury, I always felt like there was hope. And you know what a pick this high brings? Hope. Miami, make the right pick.

 

Let me say now that this is the most important draft ever. Ever. This has the potential to really change the course of a franchise.

 

Do it for my son, Miami Dolphins. I want him to be as die hard a fan as I was when I was his age. When he goes out in his Dolphins gear, I don’t want him to be looked at strangely because young kids wearing Dolphins gear after years of irrelevance is such an oddity. Make the right pick and my son, I promise, will bleed aqua and orange like his old man. And if you’re worried, I can assuage your fears. My son already knows how to pronounce and spell TAGOVAILOA.

 

Season Ticket: Hey Dolphins… Be the Heat

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So much noise. So much smoke. So much fluff.

So much guessing. So much reaching. So much lying.

So many questions.

And yet there are only two questions that truly matter, as the Miami Dolphins embark upon the three-day stretch that will likely define the next three years, if not decades. There are only two questions, to which the answers will determine whether the franchise continues to cling to stale memories that pre-date Richard Nixon’s resignation, or will finally rise above its own wreckage to something resembling relevance in a market. Relevance in a market that has mostly abandoned aqua and orange for White Hot and Back in Black. That has stashed No. 13 in its collective closet behind No. 3. That has flocked with greater consistency to a building where the home team actually, more than occasionally, wins — because it has created a culture of continuity, of stability and mostly, of never settling.

The first question?

Are they different — from the Dolphins we’ve known and grown to loathe? 

 

Dolphins fans are hoping Hawaiian born Tua Tagovailoa will be their quarterback next season. (Tony Capobianco for Five Reasons Sports)

Dolphins fans are hoping Hawaiian born Tua Tagovailoa will be their quarterback next season. (Tony Capobianco for Five Reasons Sports)

It appears so.

They accomplished more in a 5-win season than in all the prior 7-9s combined.

They elevated and further empowered a man (Chris Grier) who was here for all the recent failures, though his role in many remains somewhat unclear. They conceived a plan, unpopular with many — including this writer, at times — to shed salaries and personalities who didn’t fit, either because their position and performance didn’t warrant a looming payday (Kenyan Drake), or didn’t buy into the process (Minkah Fitzpatrick), or simply because another team offered them too much to turn down (Laremy Tunsil), or because they simply weren’t at an age to offer what they had prior (Reshad Jones, Kiko Alonso). They stubbornly started a quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick) ahead of a guy they spent a second-round pick (Josh Rosen) to acquire, even though they were criticized on both sides — by those who believed Fitzpatrick was worse in preseason (he was) and those who believed he was better and would cost draft slots (he did). They trusted a coach (Brian Flores) with no managerial experience, one who seemed to make missteps in his first preseason (Kenny Stills, Jay-Z playlist), and whose Takes No Talent approach could have struck his players as a wee bit offensive.

Dolphins

And it worked.

Just about all of it.

They started as one of the most embarrassing entries in NFL history, and somehow earned wins while shedding supposedly irreplaceable talent. They won 5 of their final 9, including handling a motivated Patriots squad in the season finale, while only dropping four draft spots from the best case scenario. They created a semblance of a, dare we say, culture that attracted a bevy of useful free agents, including an elite cornerback (Byron Jones), a linebacking leader (Kyle Van Noy) and a pass-rusher (Shaq Lawson) at market or below-market prices, the truest sign that players want to play for a coach and an organization — which, again, is something we typically say about the Miami Heat, not their struggling northern neighbors. And they stacked more chips to fill the cupboard and all the storage bins too — 14 picks, 5 in the first three rounds, plus enough additional selections the next two springs to allow for more than a couple mulligans.

So they answered the first question affirmatively.

They are different — or so it appears.

And that’s good.

Now here’s the second question, as it applies to the organization with which they sort of share the South Florida stage:

Can they be something closer to the same?

If you have spent any time around American Airlines Arena, or Miami Arena before that, there’s a phrase you hear more than any other, more than “winning or misery,” more than “adapt or die,” more than “we have enough,” more than “don’t let go of the rope,” more than “keep the main thing the main thing,” more than “the hardest-working, best conditioned, most professional, unselfish, toughest team in the NBA.”

“This is a championship organization.”

So how did it get that way?

Because that’s what it believes it is.

Because that’s what it knows matters.

Because Pat Riley made it that way.

“Pat never settles,” Erik Spoelstra often says.

Big, bold.

Boom, bust.

Usually boom, of course.

It wasn’t enough to inherit Glen Rice, already emerging as one of the sport’s elite shooters. Not when Alonzo Mourning, a sneering, shot-blocking centerpiece was sick of Charlotte. It wasn’t sufficient to supplement young exciting wings Lamar Odom and Caron Butler after they teamed with rookie Dwyane Wade for a surprising, exhilarating 2003-04 season. Not when a motivated Shaquille O’Neal could storm into town with his 18-wheeler, water gun and paint-filling presence. It wasn’t OK to hold on to Josh Richardson, a franchise find who became more than anyone anticipated, when Jimmy Butler declared his desire to follow Wade.

 

Safe doesn’t soar. Weak won’t win. Scared becomes scarred.Hoarders rarely prosper.

 

The Dolphins have, for what seems centuries, tried to find their Riley, the guy with the balls and the brains to set the agenda and tempo, to take the risks and the heat, to create a culture of accountability and consistency and mostly, certainty, that could survive more than a second or third season. Two owners, the late H. Wayne Huizenga and the snakebit Steve Ross, hired what many believed were the best and the brightest in the shadow of the Dolphins’ Riley, that icon Don Shula, whose legacy becomes greater with every laughable, aborted rebuild.

Jimmy Johnson, the man who shoved Shula aside, may have actually worked. He had the brains, balls , a little orange box… and a proven plan. But he left his heart in Texas, at his mother’s funeral and — after losing the public relations battle with Dan Marino — seemed to lose his spirit too. He brilliantly established the foundation, stacking up picks and mining later-round finds such as Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas, but, after years of taking shots on troubled talents time after, acted out of timidity. He avoided the otherworldly Randy Moss. Johnson went to the Keys. Moss went to the Hall of Fame.

 

Then, after the Dolphins declined over time during the better-to-punt Dave Wannstedt era, even with onerisky play (the Ricky Williams trade) briefly, brilliantly paying off, they turned to the most coveted college coach in the land, to run everything. Problem was, Nick Saban was used to running college locker rooms, and college media contingents, and college recruiting rules, and not when something or the system pushed back, so he didn’t have total control. Then, in 2006, he and the Dolphins were presented the chance to go big and bold, but they were told that Drew Brees had a 25 percent chance of recovering from a traumatic shoulder injury, compared to 75 percent for Daunte Culpepper getting back to form from knee surgery. They chose safer, and wrong. Saban chose Alabama.

 

Cam Cameron? We’ll turn our thumbs that way on that one. But in 2008, Huizenga though he had his Riley facsimile, in Bill Parcells, a franchise tone-setter in three earlier stops, though some of that was overstated. But Parcells, unlike Riley, didn’t really want to get his hands dirty, other than nonsensically squabbling with Jason Taylor over, of all things, Dancing with the Stars. He was saving those hands for his golf clubs and filling out the daily racing form. Tough. Smart. Disciplined. That’s what was promised. Tony Sparano provided it for a while. But Parcells, given a parachute in that contract, high-tailed it out of town rather than tough it out.

 

That was 2011.

 

Since? We don’t like to talk about since. Well, the Heat do. The Dolphins don’t. What is there to say? The Dolphins have made some expensive moves (Ndamukong Suh comes to mind) but never the ones at the proper positions that made any sense. They settled at coach. Joe Philbin? Seriously?  They settled at quarterback… for seven years. They settled, settled, settled — as Riley’s Heat stole a generation, of young fans, of license plates, of the spotlight. And they seethed, or at least Ross did, taking not-so-subtle shots at the Heat after LeBron left.

 

Now, the Heat’s season, a resurgent, exciting one at that, is suspended.

 

Now, for a weekend, the Dolphins are the only game in town.

 

But the Heat should still be in their heads. In Ross’s head. In Grier’s head. And, though he’s not responsible for any of the slippage, in Flores’ head.

 

Go big.

 

Or go home.

 

Get your guy, the quarterback who can be your LeBron, your Wade, your Zo, your Shaq, your Jimmy, instead of being jealous that they all have played on Biscayne. Figure out the rest later.

Tua Tagovailoa announces that he will enter the NFL Draft.

Stop clutching extra picks like precious pearls. They are a means to an end, not the end. And if you need all of them in the future, even with so many already coming your way, that means you probably shouldn’t be in charge. You found Preston Williams without a draft pick, the way the Heat found Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson and so many others. Find some more.

 

But quarterback? Those are not easy to find. For that, you do whatever is necessary. And more. Always. That’s the lesson since Marino declined and retired.

 

Don’t wait for the quarterback you want most — whether Joe Burrow or preferably Tua Tagovailoa — to drop to you.

 

Go get him.

 

Whatever it requires.

 

Stop stressing about what happens if you take Tagovailoa — and his special feel, touch and leadership attributes – and his body breaks down as it did for the Crimson Tide.

 

Instead, consider what happens if you don’t.

 

The guy who wants to be here, and has made that abundantly clear, when so many players haven’t prioritized this franchise. The guy who was put in the most pressurized situation possible, by Saban of all people, the second half of a national championship game, and delivered the perfect passes to take the title. The guy who played Burrow, in the midst of one of the great statistical seasons in college football history, even while significantly hobbled. The guy who has the charisma to light this place on fire. The guy who can wait behind the ideal bridge, the intellectual and professional Fitzpatrick, unless his body and brain are totally ready. The guy who, over time, could be the Brees, the Russell Wilson for Miami, or maybe for the Patriots, perhaps ushering in another two decades of Dolphins depression.

 

The guy who could be Wade — whom the Heat drafted at No. 5 even though he had little cartilage left in his knees.

Yes, those knees ached and balked. Maybe even during the parades.

The guy who makes everything right.

 

Unless there’s a chronic problem with a particular body part, there’s little historical correlation between quarterback availability in college and in the pros. Quarterbacks get hurt. Randomly. Even the strongest. Carson Wentz didn’t have an injury history. He does now. Ryan Tannehill didn’t. Until he did. Brett Favre and Dan Marino struggled at times to stay healthy in college. They were two of the most durable quarterbacks in NFL history. So if the hip checks out, the risk is not to do this.  The opportunity cost would be worth more than the price of the pick. Or multiple picks.

 

And if it’s Burrow about whom you have the most conviction, so be it. Even if it costs even more. Whatever it costs. The alternative is always irrelevance.

 

So, stop saving assets for rainy days.

 

You’ve had 20 years of rainy days. Rainy, gloomy, nondescript days.

 

Time, at last, for some Heat.

 

******

Ethan J. Skolnick, the CEO of Five Reasons Sports, has covered the Heat, Dolphins and other South Florida teams since 1996. Nearly all of the playoff games he’s covered have been Heat games. 

Larry Blustein on Jeudy, other South Florida NFL Draft Prospects

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It would be tough to duplicate the 2019 NFL Draft for south Florida – when five players from Miami-Dade and Broward Counties showcased why this area of the country is like no other.

 

When Nick Bosa (Ohio State-St. Thomas Aquinas) went second to the 49ers, Devin Bush (Michigan-Flanagan) was the 10th selection of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Brian Burns (FSU-Plantation American Heritage) was the 16th pick of the Carolina Panthers, receiver Marquise Brown (Oklahoma-Chaminade-Madonna) went 25th to the Baltimore Ravens and cornerback Deondre Baker (Georgia-Miami Northwestern) was the 30th selection of the Giants, it set a record for anywhere in the nation. One that will be hard to break.

 

As we were now just days away from the NFL Draft, area prospects are starting to surface, and while the early indication has maybe two players from the #305 and #954 going in the first round, there are several impressive football players that are expected to be drafted – or perhaps considered as coveted free agent signings.

 

With the next few college classes loaded with south Florida talent, here is a look at some of the players you could see in this year’s draft:

 

C.J. Henderson, DB (Florida – Christopher Columbus). Leaving a year early, here is one of those impressive football players who will go in the middle of Day 1.

 

It seems like it was only yesterday when he won the fastest man contest at Coach Al Golden’s University of Miami Camp as a sophomore receiver/defensive back.

 

Jerry Jeudy, WR (Alabama – Deerfield Beach). Perhaps the first local player who will land in the NFL, joining so many other local players from south Florida, who made an impact at the University of Alabama.

 

Wasn’t it just yesterday that he was in 8th grade and played a huge role in the 7-on-7 season, quickly turning heads and showing the nation that another star was indeed born.

 

In addition, there are some other prospects that figure to be in the mix this year as well – with many of them still turning heads at the combine and then during pro workout days at their colleges:

 

Damon Arnette, DB (Ohio State – St. Thomas Aquinas). Quality talent who truly made a major impression for the Buckeyes this season.

 

Trajan Bandy, DB (Miami – Christopher Columbus). Leaving school early, this is someone who may land on some roster on Day 3 – or perhaps as a free agent.

 

Buckshot Calvert, QB – (Liberty University – Carol City). The all-time leading passer in school history may not get drafted, but has the ability to turn heads in camps and stick somewhere.

 

Nevelle Clarke, CB (UCF – Coral Springs Taravella). Solid football players who has been under the radar since high school. Keep your eye on this amazing talent. He will end up on someone’s roster.

 

Jeremiah Dinson, S (Auburn – Hialeah American). Big time football talent who showcased plenty of skills in college.

 

Tyler Huntley, QB (Utah – Hallandale). If anyone knows anything about the game and how to evaluate, this young man ends up on some roster and will make a difference.

 

Sage Lewis, OLB (FIU – Monsignor Pace). All he’s done over the past three years is make plays – and there is no getting around the fact that he is a draftable prospect.

 

Josh Metellus, S (Michigan – Flanagan). Talk about someone who has been hidden, go ahead and put his film in and you will see what everyone has been missing.

 

Zack Moss, RB (Utah – Hallandale). If you are looking for a durable back who could be the best coming out in this draft, here is who you take. Only the all-time leading rusher in the storied history of Utah.

 

James Pierre, DB (FAU – Deerfield Beach). When he was in high school he was underrated, and as he comes into the draft, he is still a talent that is flying way beneath the radar.

 

Stanford Samuels III, DB (FSU – Flanagan). From the time anyone can remember, he was making a difference, and while he left early from school, he has a chance to prove a lot of people wrong. Great ball skills.

 

Demari Simpkins, WR (Utah – Hallandale). One of the many playmakers who has been slept on way too long – and for that reason – if he is given a chance, watch out!

 

Darnell Solomon, WR (USF – Miami Central). If he can get it all together, this is someone who showed flashes early on at Hollywood Hills, made a major impact at Champagnat Catholic and finished things off at Central. Needs to make football a priority.

 

Jason Strowbridge, DE (North Carolina – Deerfield Beach). From the time he left high school, this is someone who has been making a major impact at the college level, and no doubt he will be playing this game for a long time.

 

Josh Uche, LB (Michigan – Christopher Columbus). Smart, productive and a big time player, who has the chance to be very special for a long time in the NFL. Many teams should be on him – fast!

 

Binjimin Victor, WR (Ohio State – Coconut Creek). May not have been the overall difference maker that many felt he would be, but leave no doubt, the talent is there and he can be very effective at the next level.

 

There are other prospects from south Florida who also have the chance to turn heads – in the NFL, , CFL or in any of the arena leagues.

 

Have anything to add to this or would like to ask Larry Blustein a question about prospects – this year or in the future – send him a message at: Floridakids1@aol.com. Follow on Twitter or Facebook: @larryblustein, Instagram: OurBoyBlu or checkout out his website: www.larryblustein.com.

 

Tua Tagovailoa Quarterback Tracker

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Heading into the 2020 NFL Draft, there is no player more polarizing than Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. And after a season that saw many fans screaming Tank For Tua!  The Dolphins are now in prime position to land the talented QB prospect. Yes, there are plenty of other potential QBs Miami could target at #5, #18, or #26–but Tua Tagovailoa is the one. 

Here’s everything you need to know about the future QB of the Miami Dolphins.

Biography

Born: March 2nd, 1998

Height: 6’0

Weight: 217 lbs.

Hometown: Ewa Beach, Hawaii

Nickname: The Left Arm of God

College Statistics

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If you have any information that you think would be useful for this tracker, please reach out to me at @houtz.

And if you would like to purchase the official 5 Reasons Sports Tankovailoa shirt, click HERE

In Tagovailoa We Trust

Alabama Athletics

THE EXTRA YARD: FINAL MOCK DRAFT

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Here is the Final Mock Draft of the series, (Not allowing for trades) as the Miami Dolphins set out to dominate the 2020 NFL Draft by shear volume of picks. Trade up to #3? Trade up from #18 to get that much needed Tackle? All distinct possibilities. For now, we are beginning to settle on some truths, and the likely needs they will fill in round 1. It’s all about the Quarterback, Offensive Line, and the Ball carrier to help both, or could they wait till #39 to take their Back and go get the Safety in the first round?

Here is the view of the 1st round from one third of the Trio that makes up the Three Yards per Carry Podcast:

1. BENGALS – Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

There has been rumors and innuendo of Burrow not wanting to go to Cincinnati, but all of that got put to rest at the NFL Scouting Combine. The Bengals get a “local” boy to lead the franchise for the foreseeable future.

2. REDSKINS – Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State

New Head Coach Ron Rivera gets his Julius Peppers. The clear cut best defensive prospect goes to a team in desperate need of a reset, and all the rumors of a QB being taken at #2 to compete with Dwayne Haskins prove to be head fakes designed to entice a team into unloading a haul of assets to get up to #2.

3. LIONS – Jeff Okudah, CB,Ohio State

I originally had Isaiah Simmons going here, but with the trade of Darius Slay, drafting the best CB prospect of the last 3 drafts is elementary. Okudah plays right away and excels. Matt Patricia’s defense is much improved this offseason already, and gets a further boost here at #3.

4. GIANTS – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

I was tempted to put any one of three Tackles in Wirfs, Becton or Thomas here, so I went with Andrew Thomas who was for the better part of the last 18 months the near consensus top Left Tackle prospect for the 2020 draft. Nate Solder’s stint as the LT for Big Blue comes to an end soon, due to price tag and age (he is 32 years old), and Andrew Thomas steps right in.

5. DOLPHINS – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

The worst kept secret anywhere. For the better part of two years, the Miami Dolphins have committed considerable resources to the pacific northwest contingent at QB (Herbert, Love) but with a keen eye on what is going on in Alabama. No secret they like him, and would take him here. Had it not been for Tua’s hip injury, he was a serious consideration at #1. Tagovailoa is not particularly athletic, and does nto posses a rocket arm. What he does have is uncanny anticipation, football smarts, and great intangibles that have traditionally translated well to the NFL.

6. CHARGERS – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

Jordan Love here made a little sense due to rumor, and all the takes coming out of #DraftTwitter, but I’ll just go with the older consensus that Herbert was a top 3 QB prospect and the Chargers get theirs here at #6.

7. PANTHERS – Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

This team is essentially starting over and Matt Rhule needs a leader on his defense. I can make an argument for Simmons being the best defensive player in this draft, and getting him at #7 is a gift. Newly minted at #7, this is a great beginning on the big rebuilding job being undertaken in Carolina.

8. CARDINALS – Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama

The Cardinals just finished locking up their young LT, D.J. Humphries to a 3 year $45 Million extension, and now they get a versatile tackle (capable of spot duty as the LT) for the right side. Wills would theoretically complete a solid pass blocking book end tandem for 2nd year starter Kyler Murray.

9. JAGUARS – Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

The complete makeover of the Jags defense continues. This time with a mammoth Defensive Tackle to compliment edge standout from the 2019 Draft, Josh Allen. This is a pretty good 2 year start on a makeover of what was once a talent laden defense.

10. BROWNS -Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

Browns have been rumored to be in on any of about 4 different Tackle prospects, and this is as good a fit as any. With their previous LT Greg Robinson facing Free Agency and possible jail time, Becton falls nicely to the Browns at #10 to play LT while Jack Conklin slides right in at RT. Nice book ends.

11. JETS – Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

The Jets are in desperate need of Offensive line help, and get what many consider the best Right Tackle prospect in this draft. Wirfs can be a catalyst in the run game with Leveon Bell still being there for 2nd year HC Adam Gase.

12. RAIDERS – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

The Raiders were much improved in 2019, but the disaster that was the WR corp. after the Antonio Brown debacle gets remedied by a guy that can do it all. Lamb will be a welcome addition for Derek Carr, or..Marcus Mariota?

13. 49ERS (via COLTS) -CJ Henderson, CB, Florida

How do you keep a position of strength from deteriorating due to age, departures? You inject new talent. The talent injections into San Francisco continue this year with a physical, athletic corner adept at man coverage, with good playmaking ability in zone.

14. BUCCANEERS – Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina

The Bucs have a lot of the elements for a successful offense already in house, and I believe Arians just added Tom Brady to run the entire show. On defense, Devin White, Shaquil Barrett (he is a FA), Vita Vea and now Kinlaw to pair with Vea up front is a helluva start on improving what is an underrated defense.

15. BRONCOS – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

Broncos continue their hot streak of finding offensive talent after unearthing undrafted Free Agent Phillip Lindsay, and drafting WR Courtland Sutton, OT Dalton Risner and TE Noah Fant. 2nd year QB Drew Lock gets even more help in Jeudy. Good looking and young offense, being built in Denver.

16. FALCONS – K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU

The Falcons need a lot of help on defense, and after taking two offensive linemen in Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary in the 2019 draft, they turn their attention and resources to the defense with their 2020 1st round pick. An Edge player like Chaisson fits the bill.

17. COWBOYS – Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

The Cowboys are in dire salary cap straits this offseason as all world CB Byron Jones leaves for Miami, Robert Quinn is gone to Chicago, and Randall Cobb goes to the Texans. This team suddenly has holes, and none bigger than at corner back. In Kristian Fulton, the cowboys get a highly intelligent, twitchy, speedy corner, adept at man to man coverage. In Fulton, the Cowboys soften the blow of losing Byron Jones.

18. DOLPHINS – Josh Jones, OT, Houston

The Dolphins brought in edge players, an all world CB in Byron Jones, and sprinkled in interior line help. They are severly lacking at Tackle and the run on tackles makes them a bit nervous, and they snap up Josh Jones out of fear, here at #18. Yes, the blind side is the RT. But free rushers right into your face as a left handed QB can be a bit distracting. Jones is a skilled, sleek, “Tunsil like” Lineman. He can be your left tackle for 10 years. You gotta do it.

19. RAIDERS – Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

The first WOW moment of the draft. The rumblings surrounding the Raiders and Tom Brady were loud enough where you gotta think that Derek Carr’s job isn’t all that safe. The upside for Love is immense and a QB guru (or somebody that fancies himself a QB guru) like Jon Gruden would love to work with a prospect such as this.

20. JAGUARS – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

Justin Jefferson joins DJ Chark to form a “all LSU” WR Tandem, and Chris Conley to form a pretty good WR group. Gardner Minshew gets more help with the trade of Nick Foles clearing the deck for the 2nd year QB.

21. EAGLES – Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

The Eagles have serious issues in the secondary due to possible defections and injury, so it makes sense that they take what most consider, the best safety on the board. Many options for the Eagles here, but they save corner for later rounds and make sure their safety group is squared away with McKinney, and maybe…Rodney McLeod? (with the exodus of Malcolm Jenkins).

22. VIKINGS (via BILLS) – Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

With the trade of Stefon Diggs, the Vikings have weakened what was a position of strength last year. They replenish the position with the Clemson standout to go with All Pro Adam Thielen. Kirk Cousins returns, and he returns to a healthier offensive line, and little turnover on his skill guys save for the trade of Diggs. This pick softens that blow.

23. PATRIOTS – Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia

With Tom Brady gone, do the Patriots package a bunch of picks to move up and take one of the top prospects at Qb? No. Not enough assets. The Patriots and Belichick are arrogant enough to think that they can just get a highly intelligent QB, adapt him to their system and move on. They may be right. They could be galactically wrong. But they are gonna try. Fromm is the perfect, consummate game manager with some sneaky arm talent that shows up from time to time. Patriots target, and land their QB of the foreseeable future.

24. SAINTS – Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

The new breed of Hybrid, do everything, sideline to sideline, linebacker makes his way right down the road to New Orleans, at a desperate position of need for a team that still has an open Super Bowl window.

25. VIKINGS – Antoine Winfield, S, Minnesota

How much sense does this make? A Winfield and Harrison Smith Safety tandem is pretty attractive. He played at Minnesota. His father was a 3x Pro Bowler at Corner for these very Vikings. What a match.

26. DOLPHINS – Grant Delpit, S, LSU

The Dolphins, for months, have been tied to a running back (Dobbins, Taylor, Swift, Edwards-Helaire) late in the first round, but further examination sees another position of need (Safety) thinning out, and a top prospect falling to them in Delpit. They go get their RB at #39.

27. SEAHAWKS – Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

The Seahawks have tried a lot of different things to “solve” the RB position, including using a 1st round pick on Rashaad Penny a couple years back. Taylor is a very nice addition to a pretty stacked skill position group.

28. RAVENS – D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

What do you give the team that has everything? How bout shore up that RB position on the best running team (mostly Lamar Jackson) in pro football? As time goes by, Lamar will run less out of self preservation, so it would be nice to have aback like Swift to take the reigns from an aging Mark Ingram.

29. TITANS – Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

Titans already have a sledgehammer run game, (Henry is a FA however), and a superstar in the making at WR in A.J. Brown. Ruggs would compliment this group perfectly, especially since good deep ball thrower (never thought you would hear that right?) Ryan Tannehill returns.

30. PACKERS – Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado

So many ways you can go here. Packers have aging Tackles, and can use interior linebacker /Safety help. But we are in Aaron Rodgers last stand and run at another Super Bowl, and this is a tempting pairing. Shenault, to go with Davante Adams gives Rodgers an imposing pair of pass catchers. Super Bowl or bust for the Packers. This pick reflects that.

31. 49ERS – Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia

The run on WR’s hurts what would likely be a target for the 49ers in this spot. So they go BPA, and double up at cornerback. Bryce Hall as late as a year ago, was considered the #2 ranked CB prospect according to many. This is not overkill in the sense that Hall could redshirt a year, and be ready for 2021 as some, including Richard Sherman (he is a UFA in 21′) leave. An ankle injury clouded Hall’s future and drops him to #31 to a very lucky defending NFC Champions.

32. CHIEFS – Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

The defending champs are a bit thin in the secondary, but thinner yet at linebacker. Having Murray drop to them at the bottom of the first round is rather fortunate. Immediate day 1 starter at #32 for the Chiefs.

 

Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.

Recollected Dozen, Game 1: 1999 Miami @ Boston College

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This is part of a series on Canes football games that have been lost to history. Information on the series including other articles is available here. 

The Year

The year is 1999. President Bill Clinton is in the penultimate year of his presidency. The week of October 23rd, 1999 saw Smooth by Santana featuring Rob Thomas top the Billboard Hot 100 list. And Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban by J.K. Rowling was #1 on the New York Times fiction best seller list. Gas was $1.24 a gallon. The big news story were the failure of a campaign finance reform bill in the Senate and that the National Debt was being reduced as the government ran a surplus.

The Combatants

Miami entered the game at 2-3, but was still ranked #23 in the country.

Boston College entered the game at 5-1, but unranked with their one loss coming at Temple.

The Context

The Canes had started the season really well, winning the Kickoff Classic against Ohio State 23-12. Ohio State was ranked 9th at the time, but it turns out they actually weren’t that good, finishing 6-6 and missing a bowl game. But the win still propelled the Canes into Top 10, rising to 8th in the polls before hosting #2 Penn State (it turns out Penn State wasn’t as good as thought by season’s end, where they finished 4th in the Big 10. They were good, but not National Title contender good). The Canes trailed by 2 TDs against the Nittany Lions, but a furious rally saw them take the lead 23-20, and put them in position to ice the game. On 4th-and-2, deep in Nittany Lions territory, the Canes went for it (got a bad spot) and came up just short. On the next play, Penn State threw the winning TD to win the game 27-23.

The next week, the Canes built a 23-3 second half lead at East Carolina (who was not even playing in their home stadium due to flooding and damage from Hurricane Floyd). Miami blew that lead and lost 27-23 for the second week in a row.

After a bye, the Canes headed to Tallahassee and played a great game, but FSU was the best team in the country and Miami just couldn’t overcome them, for a 3rd consecutive loss.

The following week’s game against Temple was delayed to the end of the season because of Hurricane Irene so the Canes had 2 weeks off before heading to Boston, having lost 3 in a row, but given that 2 of those losses were to two of the better teams in the country, they managed to stay ranked.

There were still questions swirling about Butch Davis’ overall competence.

For Boston College, an otherwise promising start to the season was ruined by a shock loss to an awful Temple team (who ended up finishing the year 2-9).

Miami was favored to turn things around, starting in this game.

The Game

This was a game that turned on a dime. For the first 40 minutes, Boston College dominated and the Canes continuously shot themselves in the foot.

After a Canes punt, the Eagles immediately drove inside the Canes 25, leaning on a ground game that would dominate all day. When the drive stalled at the Canes 22, the Canes jumped offside on the FG attempt, giving BC a 1st down. They’d take advantage when Tim Hasselbeck threw a TD pass from 17 yards out.

Miami crossed midfield on the next drive, but it stalled and the punt was downed inside the Eagles 19. But BC immediately started marching again. Cedric Washington, who finished the game with 183 of the Eagles’ 237 rushing yards, was instrumental in the drive. The Canes finally forced a 44-yd FG when BC drove inside the Canes’ 30, but once again, it was a penalty that kept the drive alive. Miami roughed the kicker and BC took advantage when William Green dove into the end zone 3 plays later to put BC up 14-0 with 2:11 left in the 1st quarter.

Miami’s offense failed to respond, punting again. The quarter ended with the Canes’ defense finally stepping up, forcing a 3rd-and-19. 2 plays into the 2nd quarter, BC punted for the first time. The Canes punted, again, and the field position favored BC, as they started in Canes’ territory. It wasn’t long before the Eagles were in the end zone again. On 2nd-and-goal from the 7, the Eagles just ran right up the middle with Carlton Rowe going into the end zone almost untouched. 21-0 BC with 12:05 left in the 2nd quarter.

The Canes had flatly not shown up for this game, but there was a lot of time left. Both teams exchanged punts, but then the Canes finally mounted a drive behind Bubba Franks and freshman Clinton Portis. Unfortunately, at 3rd-and-2 from the BC 35, Kenny Kelly was sacked and the Canes had to punt, once again. The Canes shanked the punt, and lost all the field position from that drive. Miami’s defense had grown into the game, and did force another punt as they’d started to find their sea legs.

The next drive short-circuited when, of all things, Santana Moss dropped consecutive passes. Nothing was going Miami’s way. The Eagles did get a decent drive going, but Miami stuffed BC and on 4th-and-13 from the Canes 35, they chose to punt and pin the Canes deep, which effectively ended the half.

Miami had a complete meltdown for the entire half, trailing 21-0. Cedric Washington had 15 carries for 137 yards in the 1st half. It was an awful performance that did nothing to dispel the worries about Davis’ coaching. In addition to the team not showing up, BC’s Tom O’Brien was running circles around the Canes’ coaching staff. Miami had twice made penalties on FG attempts, gifting BC TDs. Legendary South Florida broadcaster Frank Forte justifiably lamented that he was running out of ways to describe how horrid the Canes’ performance was late in the 1st half.

The Canes D had hung in at the end of the half, and to start the 2nd half, they immediately came out and forced a 3-and-out. The Canes did drive across midfield, and once again, Miami failed to hit a quality punt. Freddie Capshaw punted it out of bounds at the BC 31, gaining only 17 yards.

On the next play, Canes’ legend Ed Reed, a sophomore at the time, made one of his signature huge plays, intercepting the ball across midfield, and returning it to the BC 35…except one of the great players in football history got stripped from behind and BC recovered, essentially where the play had started from, turning the play into a very exciting do-over. And BC took advantage, moving the ball down the field. Cedric Washington did much of the heavy lifting, and become the 3rd different Eagle to score a rushing TD to put BC up 28-0 with 6:18 left in the 3rd quarter.

Forte correctly chastised the complete lack of performance: “I’m almost at a loss for words….and I don’t know that there’s a good way to explain it.”

Then it all turned, out of nowhere.

James Jackson started rolling, moving the chains after 2 runs. Kelly then hit Santana Moss before Jackson picked up another 1st down.  The Canes ended up with 4th-and-1 at the BC 25, and on a bootleg, Kelly scrambled for 14 yards down to the BC 12. 2 plays later, Kelly hit Will McPartland on a screen pass for a TD that cut the lead to 21 with just 2:11 left in the 3rd quarter.

Miami’s defense came up with a big stop, and the Canes were set to receive the ball to start the 4th quarter, with BC lining up to punt.

Shockingly, the comeback did not continue here. BC immediately forced another punt. And then they put a drive together, working the clock, moving into Miami territory. The Canes defense finally held, but with only 12 minutes left and BC on the Canes 17-yard line, a FG to put BC up 31-7 would basically end the game.

And then BC missed the FG, wide left, and with 11:29 left the Canes were still down 28-7.

I distinctly remember my brother saying to no one in particular, “we’re going to come back and win now.”

He was right. The Canes exploded.

Going no-huddle, Kelly hit Bubba Franks on consecutive plays to the Canes’ 47. Next, Andre King got involved, making a big catch. Miami, out of sync all day, was in a rhythm. After a scramble, Kelly hit James Jackson on a screen pass, and Jackson took it 32 yards for the TD that cut the lead to 14 with 10:07 left.

On the next kickoff, James Lewis obliterated the returner inside the 20-yard line. On the next play, BC fumbled and William Joseph rumbled to the BC 6 setting up the Canes. One play later, James Jackson went around the right end for a TD that made it 28-21, with still 9:45 left.

In the course of less than 2 minutes, the game went from potentially BC up 24, to BC up 7.

BC went back to the ground game, trying to run the clock out. But Miami got the stop after one 1st down and took over at their own 24. There was now all of a sudden, plenty of time to score the one TD necessary.

And James Jackson started the drive with a big run for 20 yards, followed by another Bubba Franks reception, James Jackson exploded on 3rd-and-2, going down to the BC 28.  The Canes ended up with 2nd-and-3 on the BC 10, but Jackson got stuffed for once. On 3rd-and-2, Kelly made a play fake, avoided a free rusher, got outside, and threw a strike to Bubba Franks for the TD that remarkably tied the game at 28 with still 3:51 left.

BC suddenly had to score. And they took a shot deep on 3rd down, which Al Blades made a great play breaking up, preventing the Eagles from getting into FG range and forcing a punt

Miami started what would be the final drive at their own 43. The Canes still had 3 minutes and 2 TOs left. James Jackson was called on and gained 7 yards on 1st down to go over 100 yards…in the 2nd half. On the next play, Kenny Kelly was sacked and came up limping as the Canes were forced to use a timeout.

It’s hard to imagine given the trajectory of both careers, but the sight of backup QB Ken Dorsey stretching at this point to potentially come into the game was scary. Kelly attempted to gut the game out. And he delivered. Limping badly, he somehow avoided a free rusher and threw a strike to Santana Moss down to the BC 40-yard line. James Jackson once again got going, and ran to the BC 28.

In FG range, with Kenny Kelly barely able to walk, the Canes let the clock run down. Jackson inched the Canes forward 4 yards, as the clock was an ally. On the next play, disaster. The Canes made holding and pushed themselves out of FG range with under a minute left. Miami went for a draw to dry and pull some yards back and return to field goal range, but BC was ready and the play only gained a yard. Miami ran the whole clock down, and with 14 seconds left, Kelly threw incomplete on 3rd-and-17.

The Canes had the option of attempting the long FG, going for it, or even punting.

Butch Davis called timeout and decided to go for it. Without any timeouts, Kelly hobbled on a rollout and threw a strike to Reggie Wayne who dragged both feet inbound on the sideline for a 23-yard gain before falling out of bounds. Andy Crosland immediately came out and hit a perfect FG right between the uprights from 30 yards out with 3 seconds left to put Miami up.

BC tried to lateral on the kickoff, but got nowhere and the Canes won 31-28.

Highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4FKUlWDjyg

Full Game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT2fEKkOFY0

Why is it Memorable?

The hell was this?

Butch Davis was derogatorily referred to as “Botch” by Miami fans for much of the 90s, and it was performances like what the Canes put on for a majority of this game that made everyone justifiably think he’d never elevate the program.

There is so much to unpack here.

First, a lot of the players that would 2 years later be dominating everyone and winning championships legitimately struggling to find their sea legs is a story line. It’s still great to see them in their infancy.

But this game is also about the “stolen championship” Canes. The tragedy of the 2000 BCS snafu was not just that the Canes were screwed out of the championship. For us fans, while it still hurts, as does 2002, we at least won the 2001 title. For players like Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, James Jackson, Dan Morgan, Al Blades, Damione Lewis, Andre King, Leonard Myers (RIP)…their title was stolen. This performance was character building. It led to eventually this mostly same collection of players being the best team in the country the following year. While we consider the 2000 class as champions, and justifiably, they didn’t get that opportunity. By forgetting games like this, we lose sight of how we got to see a team and players struggle and grow.

And what about Kenny Kelly? This was the only season he would be the starter, and he would be injured later in the year, eventually losing the job to Dorsey (although Kelly did start the Gator Bowl). He made play after play in this game, even after being hobbled. It was gutty.

Of course, in a sense, any 28-point comeback is memorable. But the context here is so key.

If the Canes lose this game, they go to 2-4 on a 4-game losing streak. There was no way they were not losing to Virginia Tech later in the year, so that’s at least 5 losses. Does Butch Davis even survive 5 losses with 2 being to East Carolina and Boston College, especially if this game had ended 28-0?

Everyone justifiably points to the 98 UCLA game as a turning point, and it was. After losing to Syracuse by 53 points, they turned around and won that game, knocking UCLA out of the championship game and reinvigorating the program.

But if the UCLA game was huge 3rd down conversion to kickstart a memorable drive, this game was where the Canes fumbled at midfield and miraculously recovered.

After going 9-3 in 1998 with the big UCLA win, it would be really hard to justify Butch Davis going 7-5 the following year. Really hard.

But that justification was unnecessary, thanks to this huge comeback where the Canes scored 31 points in the last 17 minutes of the game to win by 3.

The Aftermath

First, let’s dispense with BC. They were a good team that finished well from here, finishing 3rd in the Big East behind Miami and VT. They were solid and continued to be for several years.

For Miami, the season went well from here. The Canes would get obliterated in Blacksburg in a game where Kenny Kelly was injured, and replaced by Ken Dorsey. But Dorsey got valuable experience from there, starting 3 consecutive wins to end the season, and featuring heavily in the Canes Gator Bowl win over 17th ranked Georgia Tech. Despite the 4 losses, the Canes finished the year ranked 15th, having won 7 of 8, and were viewed as a national championship contender for the following year.

We all know where it went from there, wins piled on top of wins, what should have been a 3-peat robbed down to the solitary title, and a team that is widely considered the best ever.

But, this comeback changed everything. This game actually was the first game in a streak of games where Miami would go 50-2* starting on this date of October 23, 1999 and ending in Blacksburg, VA on November 1, 2003. Over that 4-year period, the Canes would lose twice, legitimately, and this was the start of the streak.

A game of great importance, a true turning point, the start of an absurd 4-year run….yet oddly forgotten. The perfect game to hold the top spot in our Recollected Dozen.

*Around these parts, BS pass interference calls after the game is already over are not acknowledged.

Have memories of this game? Tweet us at @vrp2003 and @5ReasonsSports

 

Recollected Dozen, Game 2: 1988 Miami @ Michigan

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This is part of a series on Canes football games that have been lost to history. Information on the series including other articles is available here. 

The Year

The year is 1988. President Ronald Reagan is in the final year of his presidency. The week of September 17th, 1998 saw Sweet Child O- Mine by Guns N’ Roses top the Billboard Hot 100 list. And The Cardinal of the Kremlin by Tom Clancy was #1 on the New York Times fiction best seller list. Gas was $0.96 a gallon. The big news story was that we were a week away from the first Presidential Debate between Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis and Vice President George H.W. Bush.

The Combatants

Miami entered the game 1-0, having beat Florida State 31-0.

Michigan was 0-1, having lost at Notre Dame 19-17.

The Context

The Canes were the defending national champions, having gone undefeated in 1987. They were the #1 team in the country and favored to win this game. The infamous Seminoles Rap game had elevated the Canes to an almost Super Human level of play.

Michigan came into this game ranked 15th in the nation. They had lost the Notre Dame game after falling behind early, and then rallying to take the lead, only to lose in the 4th quarter.

Another story was the coaches. Michigan was lead by the legendary Bo Schembechler. Miami had the greatest coach in football history in Jimmy Johnson.

The Game

Miami got off to a poor start when they fumbled on their opening possession after one first down.

Michigan QB Michael Taylor was able to move the Wolverines inside the Canes 15, but the drive stalled. Michigan did collect a FG and lead 3-0 5 minutes into the game.

The Canes responded, immediately. Cleveland Gary and Rob Chudsinzki would combine on the next drive (something that would be a running theme). Gary carried for one first down, then Chud helped convert a 3rd and long to midfield, collecting a pass from Steve Walsh. On 3rd-and-9 from the 49, Walsh hit Gary who broke several tackles and outran Michigan to the end zone putting the Canes up  7-3.

Michigan countered with a drive to the Canes 29. Taylor again proved elusive as his mobility was neutralizing the Canes pass rush. But Michigan kicker Michael Gillette missed the FG.

Miami’s next drive was a disaster, as they threw an incompletion and then made a dead ball personal foul. They ended up punting from the end zone, and the punt was short. Michigan started at the Canes 40. Fortunately, Gillette was off on the day, and after the Wolverines drove to the Canes 17, he missed another FG.

That ended the quarter with the Canes leading 7-3, and Michigan having missed 2 FGs.

After the Canes went 3-and-out, Michigan once again drove, this time behind Tony Bowles’ running and Taylor’s ability to throw on the run. The drive stalled inside the Canes red zone, but Gillette made this FG and it cut the lead to 7-6.

On the next drive, Randall Hill bobbled the kickoff and the Canes faced a long field. Cleveland Gary had a long run and long catch to move the ball out to the Canes 40, but a holding penalty killed the drive. On 4th down, the Canes faked the punt and successfully converted. That led to Cleveland Gary diving in from the 1 to put the Canes up 14-6 with 3 minutes left in the half.

Miami almost short-circuited the next Michigan drive. Bowles fumbled, and several Canes had a chance to recover near midfield, but couldn’t. They’d pay for that as on 3rd-and-7, Michigan would complete a big pass on an out route to the Canes 17. A few players later, Taylor would throw a TD on a play-action pass. Michigan went for and missed the 2, so they trailed 14-12, with 57 seconds left.

On the ensuing kickoff, Miami fumbled after a good return out to the 35. Michigan recovered. On 3rd-and-6 from the 22, the Wolverines threw a TD to the corner of the end zone on a great sliding catch. Michigan also converted the 2 and led 20-14.

Miami managed to accidentally kneel the next kickoff at their own 3, but got into the half by diving into the line.

Miami had been in control of the game, but gifted Michigan 14 points in the last minute of the half to trail.

After forcing the Wolverines to punt to open the 2nd half (Michigan’s first punt of the game), Gary, Leonard Conley, and Chud made several plays to take the Canes to the Michigan 12. Gary was open for the go-ahead TD, but Walsh just overthrew him. On the next play, the ball went off Dale Dawkins’ hands and was intercepted by Michigan at the GL. They returned it out to the 19, so Miami didn’t even get field position.

Another 3-and-out returned the ball to the Canes, but once again Walsh had a ball go off a receivers’ hands, this time Gary, for an interception, this time near midfield.

The Wolverines took advantage, getting a big completion to the Canes 20, and followed that up by Taylor scrambling inside the 10. But Randy Shannon made a huge sack to force Michigan to settle for a FG, which they made to go up 23-14.

The quarter ended with Michigan having forced a Canes 3-and-out and driven it out to the 45. Michigan would convert 2 3rd-and-longs. The first was a pass to the Canes 38. The second was after Taylor was injured on a sack. On 3rd-and-16, backup Demetrius Brown came in and completed a long throw to the Canes 14. Taylor returned for a 3rd-and-13, and hit Chris Calloway for the TD that put the Wolverines up 30-14.

If the Canes were ready to mount a comeback, it didn’t show on the next drive. Miami went backward and punted out of their end zone. Michigan took over at the Canes 41. The defense held and forced a punt that went out for a touchback.

Trailing by 16 with 7:30 left and the ball on their 20, a win seemed almost impossible. Almost.

Walsh hit Dawkins for 22 yards, and then Andre Brown to the Michigan 45. Chud then got involved, catching several passes to convert 1st downs, including finally for a TD with 5:23 left. Dawkins caught the 2-point conversion and the lead was down to 30-22.

The Canes forced a 3-and-out and caught a fair catch at their own 43. After a completion to Chud was just short of the 1st down, the Canes and specifically Cleveland Gary made the play of the game. From the Michigan 48 on 4th-and-2, Walsh hit Gary on a crossing route and he broke free from the defenders, headed up the sideline and ran for a TD to pull the Canes within 2. The 2-point conversion was intercepted, and the Canes trailed by 2 with 2:58 left.

This is where Jimmy Johnson made the call of the game. With 3 timeouts, the Canes could have kicked deep. Instead, he went for the onside kick. And Miami recovered. Not wasting any time, Walsh hit Andre Brown to the edge of field goal range. From there, Cleveland Gary ran the ball to the Michigan 16. The Canes ran the clock down as much as possible, and Carlos Huerta nailed the FG with 43 seconds left to put the Canes up 31-30.

Michigan moved the ball to near midfield, but a Hail Mary attempt fell short and the Canes escaped with a 31-30 win.

Highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7UNuTP-bpA

Full Game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zXKXXjQlcw

Why is it Memorable?

This game is the closest I came to a game being too memorable to be on this list. But, you ask anyone about the 1988 season, and the discussion is about the Notre Dame game, not this one.

But Miami should have lost this game. The missed Michigan FGs, the multiple interceptions short-circuiting drives, the multiple errors on kickoffs…you shouldn’t be able to recover from that.

The Canes did, though. Timely stops by the defense, and an awful lot of Rob Chudsinzki and Cleveland Gary, as well as nerves of steel from Steve Walsh turned this game around. Gary himself scored 3 TDs and was unstoppable all game long.

And what about Jimmy Johnson? Twice, he made critical decisions that won the game. In the first half, the Canes were clinging to a 1-point lead but struggling. His fake punt decision got them in the end zone. And then there’s the onside kick, which set up the winning FG. Conventional wisdom is to kick deep and use timeouts, but Johnson went the other way.

That resulted in Michigan fans being a bit stunned:

When you leave the opponents looking like that, it is a win for the ages.

The Aftermath

This turned out to be 2 of the best teams in the country.

Miami would “lose” to Notre Dame because apparently Cleveland Gary lying flat on the ground is not down yet. That blemish would cost them a National Championship and they’d finish 2nd.

Jimmy Johnson would move on at year’s end, turning the Dallas Cowboys into a dynasty while Dennis Erickson took over and won 2 National Championships in the next 3 years.

This team deserved a championship, but was robbed.

As for Michigan, they only tied one game the rest of the year, winning the rest, including the Rose Bowl to finish ranked 4th.

Have memories of this game? Tweet us at @vrp2003 and @5ReasonsSports

 

Miami Dolphins

Going Rogue: Three Round Miami Dolphins Draft

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What if the upcoming Dolphins’ draft goes against expectations?

The word “mock” as an adjective; and perhaps in the context of a sports draft would be defined as “arranged for training or practice, or performed as a demonstration”

That could be why you see hundreds of them from prognosticators far and wide.

The word mock as a verb could also be applicable in these instances.

mock – “Make (something) seem laughably unreal or impossible”.

Usually the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Sometimes the board goes as the majority expects.

Other times the human element takes over and the once predictable draft boards become full of the unexpected.

Each NFL draft has its own plot twists, and smart teams capitalize on the moment and take advantage.

The Miami Dolphins are poised to be the stars of the 2020 NFL Draft, with three first round picks.

Perhaps nearly as important are the three remaining selections inside the top 70, which bodes well for a Dolphins roster in need of depth.

Everyone who follows the team, and those that don’t, know that Miami needs their quarterback of the future.

Tua Tagovailoa has been the “Chosen One” for what seems like an eternity.

Until the smoke started.

 

Another possibility… both factions are wrong.

So what if that happens?

What if Burrow does in fact go to Cincinnati, and then another quarterback needy team jumps Miami for Tua?

That may be an uneasy scenario for Dolphins’ fans to stomach, but if we are known for one thing it is a tough constitution.

Let’s take a look at how the first three rounds could deviate from predictability, including a full mock of Day 1.

“Seeing Through the Smoke”

Picture Miami standing pat with their existing picks and starting Day 1 with the 5th selection.

Crazy, right?

Say the first four picks go something like this:

No.1 Cincinnati Bengals – Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

No. 2 Washington Redskins – Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State

No. 3 Los Angeles Chargers (via trade with DET) – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

Yeah, that just happened.

The departure of Phillip Rivers leaves the quarterback situation in Los Angeles uncertain.

Tyrod Taylor is not the long term solution.

The Chargers take a leap of literal and proverbial faith and grab their franchise quarterback in the hopes someone will notice.

 

The Miami Dolphins 2020 draft takes its first detour.

No. 4 New York Giants – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

With the two top quarterbacks in the eyes of many off the board, where does the Dolphins brain trust go?

Justin Herbert is still there but so are three top tackles, along with Isaiah Simmons and Jeffrey Okudah.

Could you imagine a secondary of Xavien Howard, Byron Jones, and Okudah?

Neither could Miami apparently.

No. 5 Cleveland Browns (via Miami) – Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

In this scenario Cleveland doesn’t think the quick rising Becton lasts until their original pick at 10, so they swap with Miami and include their 2020 second round pick (41) in the deal.

No. 6 Detroit Lions (via Chargers) – Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

No. 7 Carolina Panthers – Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

No. 8 Arizona Cardinals – Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

No. 9 Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

No. 10 Miami Dolphins – Justin Herbert QB, Oregon

See, Miami did take a quarterback with their first pick!

 

Seeing through the #SmokeSZN is nearly impossible unless you are one of the chosen few in the Dolphins power structure.

Make no mistake, the Dolphins are on the clock for their next great quarterback.

The link to Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins has nearly been spoken into existence.

It still may happen, but having drawn as such a foregone conclusion so early seems lacking

Herbert may have been the prize all along, and at this draft position is the ultimate value.

 

Now Miami has positioned themselves to add top level depth in the second and third rounds, while securing their quarterback.

No. 11 New York Jets – Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

No. 12 Las Vegas Raiders – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

No. 13 San Francisco 49ers – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

No. 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina

No. 15 Denver Broncos – Henry Ruggs, III WR, Alabama

No. 16 Atlanta Falcons – C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

No. 17 Dallas Cowboys – Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

No. 18 Miami Dolphins – Josh Jones, OT, Houston

Miami now sits with five more picks through Round 2, in a draft full of players that fit their needs in this range.

With positions such as tackle and safety running low, and with all the top running backs still on the board, Miami could go any direction here.

However with Hebert the choice earlier, his protection must be a priority.

Jones is a bit of a reach here, he has all the athletic traits you look for at tackle but lacks refinement.

 

With development he can be a high level NFL starter but will need improvement in the fundamentals to meet that potential.

If we have learned one thing about Brian Flores and his coaching staff. it is that player development is of the highest priority.

No. 19 Las Vegas Raiders – Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

No. 20 Jacksonville Jaguars – Grant Delpit, S, LSU

No. 21 Philadelphia Eagles – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

No. 22 Minnesota Vikings – Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn

No. 23 New England Patriots – Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

Of course.

No. 24 New Orleans Saints – Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

No. 25 Minnesota Vikings – Antoine Winfield, S, Minnesota

No. 26 Miami Dolphins – J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State

The offensive makeover becomes the priority of the first round and the Dolphins somehow luck into Dobbins who fits their style perfectly.

Miami has secured their quarterback and his blindside protector, now they have their running back of the future.

 

The Dolphins rushed to get Dobbins in for a pre-draft visit before closing down their facilities due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Dobbins mix of power and speed make him the ideal feature back, he is a willing pass blocker but does need to improve there a bit.

Last year he became the first Ohio State running back to rush for 2000 yards in a single season (301 carries, 2003 yards, 21 TD, 6.2 YPC)

Dobbins caught 71 passes in his three seasons at Ohio State and can be an every down weapon for many years.

No. 27 Seattle Seahawks – A.J. Espenesa, EDGE, Iowa

No. 28 Baltimore Ravens – D’Andre Swift, RB, Clemson

No. 29 Tennessee Titans – Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State

No. 30 Green Bay Packers – Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

No. 31 San Francisco 49ers – Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU

No. 32 Kansas City Chiefs Zack Baun, EDGE, Wisconsin

The first round of the Dolphins draft is dedicated to the offense, in harmony with the defensive additions in free agency.

However, Miami is by no means done with two premium picks in Round 2 awaiting them.

Round 2

Having three first-round picks in one draft can rebuild the top shelf quickly.

Add three more in the second-round and you can fill up the entire pantry.

Miami continues building out the trenches on Day 2 and the roster begins to take shape.

No. 39 – Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan

Miami further solidifies the offensive line with Ruiz, the near consensus top interior lineman in the draft.

Ruiz has plenty of experience having started 31 games for Michigan over his career, with 26 at center.

His versatility will be vital to a revamped offensive line and his play against Big-10 competition in the trenches will help his transition.

Ruiz can be a factor at the second level in the run game, and is an enthusiastic lead blocker in the screen game.

He sets a stout anchor and usually gives up little ground on pass protection.

Ruiz is strong enough to hold off larger defensive lineman and agile enough to compete with smaller ones.

With improved strength and conditioning at the NFL level, Ruiz can meet what is a very high professional ceiling.

No. 41 (from Cleveland) Ross Blacklock, IDL, TCU

After four consecutive picks on the offensive side, the Dolphins finally come back to the defense with an interior disruptor in Blacklock.

With Devon Godchaux and Christian Wilkins Miami has two solid pocket movers, and with Blacklock they add another.

Blacklock has a nonstop motor that will be well received and has the quick feet to blow up the middle or set the edge.

Missing 2018 with an Achilles set him back a bit in terms of seeing the game, but Blacklock has the motor and physical tools to be a force in the middle for years.

No. 56 Lucas Niang, OT, TCU

The infusion of youth and high upside on the offensive line continues with Niang, who joins his TCU teammate Ross Blacklock in Miami. Niang is an excellent value at pick 56, his floor profiles as an above average NFL starter. Listed at 6-foot-6 and 328 pounds, Niang possesses prototypical size for an NFL tackle.

Niang played through a hip injury until November which seemed to limit his mobility somewhat, and he can struggle against quicker edge rushers in pass sets.

He made 27 starts at right tackle in college and projects there at the next level, his pass blocking upside is elite but will need refinement as a road grader.

Niang is not scheme limited and should fit nicely on the right side of the revamped offensive line sooner than later.

Round 3

The first two rounds of the Miami Dolphins 2020 NFL Draft focused on value, need, and roster balance.

With one selection in the third round, Miami checks one last box and addresses the thin safety position.

No. 70 Ashtyn Davis, S, California

Miami gets their versatile safety in Davis who brings a varied skill set that Brian Flores covets.

Davis can play all over the field whether in base or sub packages, and will likely be a key contributor on special teams right away.

He is willing to stick his nose in on run support but has struggled with some run fits, Davis is not your long term in-the-box safety.

Davis has a high motor and the range to make up for the occasional misstep, along with the ability to matchup in the slot when called upon.

 

With his versatility and likeliness to contribute in all phases of special teams, Davis fits what Miami needs in many ways.

Summary

No. 10 – Justin Herbert, QB

No. 18 Josh Jones, OT

No. 26 J.K. Dobbins, RB

No. 39 Cesar Ruiz, C 

No. 41 Russ Blacklock, IDL

No. 56 Lucas Niang, OT

No. 70 Ashtyn Davis, S

 

By trading down the Dolphins were able to add a high second round pick and bring in new talent across the offensive line.

They also went off script by moving down and selecting Herbert, a move that may draw criticism from fans and media alike.

But they were also able to get the top running back for their system, and two players that can immediately impact the defense and special teams.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line in 2020 could somehow end up looking something like this:

LT: Josh Jones

LG: Erick Flowers

C: Cesar Ruiz

RG: Ted Karras

RT: Lucas Niang

Forget easing the rookies into it, may as well let them all learn on the job.

No matter how well Miami drafts and supplements in free agency, this is still not a playoff roster.

Ryan Fitzpatrick can hide some of the warts and help the rookies grasp the game at the NFL level.

It is nearly impossible for the aforementioned script to unfold, but trading down and acquiring even more assets could happen.

In some way, shape, or form the most important draft for the Miami Dolphins in this century is happening April 23rd.

One that will go down in history for many reasons.

We will be hosting a live draft show on Day One with numerous contributors throughout our network.

Follow @5ReasonsSports on Twitter for more details.

Make sure to subscribe to the 3 Yards Per Carry Miami Dolphins podcast.

 

Season In Review: Kendrick Nunn

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The NBA season isn’t over yet, though it appears to be trending that way. For the purpose of this exercise, let’s assume the plug has been pulled. We have a large enough sample to evaluate what went down, and what we should expect moving forward. For the next [insert time frame here], I’ll be reviewing every relevant player on the Heat.

We kicked things off with Goran Dragic, a wily veteran with a couple of new tricks. Next up is Kendrick Nunn, the where-did-he-come-from rookie that made an immediate impact in Miami’s guard rotation.

Offense

Relevant stats: 15.6 points, 51.2 percent from two, 36.2 percent from three (5.8 attempts), 83.7 percent from the line (1.5 attempts), 3.4 assists

Three-level shot creators are the most valuable player archetype out there. The reasoning is simple: those type of players are pretty much scheme-proof. In a league that primarily employs “drop” coverage in pick-and-rolls, being able to attack gaps with reliable pull-up shots can break a defense.

It forces defenses to defend higher, which increases the amount of space that can be created with drives. Productive drives lead to high percentage shots at the rim, or force rotations that generate catch-and-shoot opportunities from the perimeter. A guy that can effectively score from anywhere can open up the floor for everyone.

If Kendrick Nunn showed nothing else, he proved he has those kind of scoring chops.

Nunn generated 0.956 points per pick-and-roll possession as a scorer, via Synergy. That put him in range with James Harden (0.967) and Kawhi Leonard (0.968), and slightly ahead of Paul George (0.952), Donovan Mitchell (0.944), and CJ McCollum (0.937).

Nunn’s value starts with his pull-up jumper. He generated nearly 1.1 points per possession on off-the-dribble shots, placing him in the 85th percentile via Syngery. Nunn was able to get to it on a whim, thanks to superb footwork and a keen understanding of deceleration. What he lacks in top-end burst, he makes up for it in craft.

The threat of his pull-up puts more strain on perimeter defenders to fight over screens. If they fail to stay attached, he can kill them with triples or middies. If the big creeps up, Nunn has the touch necessary to finish with floaters (52nd percentile) or contested looks at the rim (63.2 percent inside of three feet).

In short, there isn’t a method of scoring that Nunn can’t pull out of his bag.

 

Nunn can get his. What’s lacking, at least in comparison to his scoring chops, is the ability to read the floor for others. Not only is he wired to score, he relies on his pull-up to open up the rest of his game. Those are already tougher shots on balance. There were a handful of possessions per game where Nunn would settle for an early (read: bad) shot when there was a passing window available, or enough time on the clock to hunt for a better shot.

To his credit, Nunn did get better at finding teams when creases opened. Timing was still a bit of an issues — his passes went from late or missed, to a tad early. That still represents progress, and something for him to build off of next season.

 

Defense

Relevant stats: 0.8 steals, 1.4 steal rate, one charge drawn

“Opportunistic” is probably the best way to describe Nunn on defense.

When defending on-ball, Nunn tries to “jump” the screen. If he feels a screen coming, he attempts to jump into the ball-handler’s body to stay attached on the drive. When done correctly, like it was during the first month of the season, Nunn proved he could be an irritant at the point of attack.

The same principles apply on his off-ball reps. Outside of Jimmy Butler, Nunn is the Heat’s most aggressive digger. A large portion of his steals came via swipes on middle drives or post-ups.

There is, however, a thin line between opportunistic and undisciplined. If the 0.8 steals per game is any indication, he falls on the wrong side of that line too often. Much like the offensive end, Nunn’s lack of top-end burst limits his effectiveness.

Because he can’t fly around (nor does he have the length) like, say, Philadelphia’s Matisse Thybulle, positioning matters more for Nunn. An aggressive dig into the post has to result in chaos, because he doesn’t have the speed or length to make shooters uncomfortable if the ball is kicked back out.

Those issues are even more pronounced when he defends on-ball. He jumps so many screens because he does a not-great job of fighting over them and staying connected to drivers.

Synergy’s defensive logging isn’t great, but it mostly matches the eye test here. Nunn ranks in the 39th percentile when defending dribble handoffs (0.98 points per possession), 37th percentile when defending pick-and-rolls (0.921 PPP), 29th percentile when defending off-screen actions (1.087 PPP), and the 20th percentile when defending spot-ups (1.138 PPP).

While Goran Dragic is likely Miami’s worst perimeter defender, Nunn isn’t too far off. Considering the gap in age and athleticism, that’s quite the indictment against Nunn. It’s why point-of-attack defense was such a question mark heading into the postseason — and a big reason why the Justise Winslow trade was such a gamble.

Moving forward

Nunn’s positives outweigh his negatives. Legitimate three-level scorers don’t grow on trees, and the Heat found one — using “found” loosely here — for basically the vet’s minimum. Nunn is older than your average rookie, which contributes to his relatively high floor. He’s also in a great situation; decision-making isn’t as big of a deal when he’s playing off of Butler and Bam Adebayo.

With that said, the defensive questions are real. Screen avoidance and risk management should improve with more experience, but there’s only so much he can do physically.

[Insert “I am not the “sources” guy in the network” disclaimer here]

I would imagine those questions contribute to Nunn being on the wrong side of the “untouchable” line among Miami’s young guys. Adebayo isn’t going anywhere. Tyler Herro isn’t going anywhere. Duncan Robinson, arguably the most important offensive weapon the world doesn’t really know about, isn’t going anywhere. Nunn would probably be in OKC right now if the Heat could’ve agreed to a contract extension with Danilo Gallinari.

If they were willing to part with Nunn for, essentially, a veteran on a 1+1 deal, it’s hard to argue that his status is completely safe. However, it does speak to Nunn’s value that he could net a guy like Gallinari despite being a virtual unknown a few months ago.