Trocheck Trade Exemplifies State of Florida Panthers

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The trade of forward Vincent Trocheck by the Florida Panthers this week exemplifies the current state of the franchise.

After six full seasons in Sunrise, Trocheck was sent to the Carolina Hurricanes on Monday at the NHL trade deadline.

 

In year seven with the Panthers, Trocheck battled injuries and inconsistency throughout the first half.

After playing a full 82 games in both 2016 and 2017, injuries stalled Trocheck in the last two campaigns.

Trocheck appeared in 55 games for the Panthers prior to the deal, the same number he played all of last year.

He leaves with 10 goals and 16 assists, which are well below his career averages.

Trocheck had a career high 31 goals in 2017 and averaged over 26 goals per season from 2015 to 2017.

His uneven performance ultimately made him a casualty of a much needed roster shuffle.

Florida acquired forwards Erik Haula, Lucas Wallmark and Eetu Luostarinen along with defenseman Chase Priskie.

Before Carolina, Haula spent his first four years in Minnesota before joining Vegas for the last two seasons.

He appeared in 41 games for Carolina this year, tallying 12 goals and 10 assists. Haula should have an opportunity on the second and third forward lines, and has 44 games of postseason experience on his resume.

 

Wallmark was drafted in the 4th round of the 2014 NHL Draft by Carolina, the 24-year old speedy forward from Sweden has nice upside.

He appeared in 60 games for Carolina prior to the trade, with 11 goals and 12 assists so far. Wallmark can also contribute across multiple lines and along with Haula add solid depth to the forward group.

Luostarinen and Priskie are expected to report to the Springfield Thunderbirds, their AHL affiliate. Priskie is from Pembroke Pines and grew up a huge Florida Panthers fan, a nice story to say the least he gets a chance to play for his hometown team.

While these additions are solid on the surface, when four players are traded for one, typically the one is the bell of the ball.

In this case, Florida made the move while the underperforming Trocheck still held value.

Trocheck symbolized the Panthers season thus far, full of excitement and potential, while somehow far away from complete realization of it.

On paper the Panthers should be more than a fringe playoff contender, they have the components to make a legit run.

Something has been missing since the All-Star break, and changes were needed.

Trocheck was good enough to command a decent haul in return.

Yet not quite on the level where he would not become expendable.

General Manager Dale Tallon had to give Coach Joel Quenneville some flexibility and shake the roster up.

The core was too top heavy and has underproduced, perhaps some new faces will bring some energy for one last playoff push.

 

Alejandro Villegas

Launching Pad: Bam Baking, Olynyk Off-Balling, Crowder Cashing

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses

• Record: 36-20, 4th in the East (1-1)

• Offensive Rating: 112.0 (118.7)

• Defensive Rating: 108.7 (110.9)

• Net Rating: plus-3.3 (plus-7.8)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.6 (61.2)

• Pace: 99.58 (105.0)

• Time of Possession: 14.7 seconds (13.5)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo

• Minutes: 12

• Offensive Rating: 131.0

• Defensive Rating: 85.7

• Net Rating: plus-45.3

• True-Shooting Percentage: 63.7

• Pace: 114.64

The Big Number: 57

The Bam Adebayo-Duncan Robinson partnership has been a revelation for the Heat’s 8th ranked offense. Adebayo’s ability to pass and screen, paired with Robinson’s ability to shoot off movement, makes for a natural fit. Most of their two-man dances come via dribble-handoff, burning teams that dare to employ drop coverage against them.

Adebayo has assisted on 57 Robinson threes, making them the NBA’s most profitable duo. The rest of the top five, via PBP Stats:

2) Damian Lillard to CJ McCollum, 53

3) Chris Paul to Danilo Gallinari, 49

4) LeBron James to Danny Green, 47

T-4) Jrue Holiday to JJ Redick, 47

Weekly Trends

1. Bam off the bounce

If it feels like Adebayo has been covered a ton in this space, it’s because he has been.

We touched on his empowerment early in the season. We highlighted his struggles against the Sixers, and again against the Nets when they aggressively sagged off of him. We also talked about him gaining comfort as an intermediate scorer.

Now, Bam is stylin’ off the bounce.

He has basically quintupled his drive volume from last season (0.8 to 3.9) while raising his efficiency from 38.7 percent to 59.6, via Second Spectrum tracking data.

You read that right: Bam’s conversion rate has skyrocketed nearly 21 percentage points while driving five times more than he did last year.

With teams catching on to his tendency to drive baseline, he’s started to counter with in-and-out dribbles and drives from the triple threat position. This jab-and-jam sequence against Tristan Thompson was absolutely filthy.

It’s not uncommon to see Bam take the ball up the floor. Thanks to the free-flowing nature of Miami’s offense, we’ve been treated to some impromptu pick-and-roll reps.

Very quietly, Bam has generated 53 points on 50 pick-and-roll possessions (1.06 PPP, passes included), via Synergy. If you thought the James Johnson-Goran Dragic inverted two-man game was fun, imagine what Bam-led pick-and-rolls are going to look like moving forward.

At this point, three-point shooting is the only hole in Bam’s offensive game. If his work in the Skills Competition is any indication*, that’ll probably come within a year.

*It shouldn’t be, but work with me here.

2. Unlocking Kelly Olynyk

With Meyers Leonard still on the mend with an ankle injury, the Heat have leaned more on Kelly Olynyk. It’s been an up-and-down season for him, to say the least. He struggled to adjust to Miami’s offensive shift to begin the year, which made his defensive shortcomings look even more glaring.

The Heat haven’t leaned on Olynyk’s improv work like they did last season. Instead, they’ve made more of an effort to utilize his shooting. Pick-and-pop bigs already serve as kryptonite against drop schemes. When you have a guy like Olynyk flying off flare screens, you’re putting even more strain on defenses.

First off, that’s a solid (if not slightly illegal) lead block from Kendrick Nunn. Olynyk gives the subtle shove, receives the pitch and fires in one fluid motion. It’s a guard-like sequence that he makes look easy.

Olynyk has only logged four (4) off-screen possessions this season, via Synergy. He’s scored nine points on 3-of-4 shooting, including that clip above. The Heat flow out of HORNS Flare all the time. Inverting that action for Olynyk is probably something they should go to more often.

3. Jae Crowder just can’t miss

We’re only working with a five-game sample, but Jae Crowder has been Miami’s most productive acquisition from their deadline deal. He’s defended well across both forward spots, and has mostly held his own against guards on switches.

That was expected, though. Crowder has been a serviceable-at-worst defender for most of his career. The real surprise of the Crowder Experience has been his three-point shooting.

Crowder is shooting a blistering 54.8 percent from deep on 6.2 attempts. Not only are those well above his career marks (33.7 percent, 4.2 attempts), he’s feasting on a diet of shots like these:

Since joining the Heat, Crowder is generating nearly 1.3 points per spot-up possession, and over 1.6 points per transition possession via Synergy. To put those numbers into perspective, Crowder has been a more efficient shooter than JJ Redick (1.09), and has scored at a more efficient rate than Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.12 PPP).

The regression is going to come at some point, but it’s hard not to be impressed with the shot-making Crowder has provided so far.

Set Play of the Week

The Sneak Attack

Sadly, I don’t have the technical name for this one. However, Miami’s opening set against the Cavs immediately caught my eye.

The possession kicks off with a pitch to Duncan Robinson on the right wing. Nunn attempts to set a down screen for Derrick Jones Jr, but his defender (Cedi Osman) is already hanging below the free throw line. He’s able to duck under the screen, though this is mostly decoy action.

Nunn pops back up to receive the ball from Robinson, kicking off a 1-5 pick-and-roll. This is the point where the positioning matters.

This is a left-flowing pick-and-roll, which is key for two reasons.

1) Nunn is driving to his dominant hand.

2) Adebayo is rolling right, which means the only defender that could “tag” him on the roll is Collin Sexton. Who is Sexton guarding? Only the most dangerous off-movement shooter in the league right now.

Sexton naturally drops for a second. He quickly realizes that Adebayo isn’t rolling to the basket. Adebayo cuts his roll short before setting a screen for Robinson to pop out to the top of the key.

You already know how it ends.

Tyson Fury v. Deontay Wilder II…. a Preview

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Where to watch: Saturday, Saturday, February 22, 2020, MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, Available on ESPN+ PPV/ FOX PPV.

A very skeptical public watched Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder meet each other at Staples Center on December 1st, 2018. Skeptical due to Wilder being thought of as “second best” to at the time, UK super star Anthony Joshua. Skeptical due to Tyson Fury coming back from a bout with depression, drug addiction, and not looking very good in a couple of tune ups after his triumph over lineal Heavyweight Champion Wladimir Klitschko. The fighters earned guaranteed purses of $4 million for Wilder and $3 million for Fury. A pittance historically, for heavyweight championship standards. The event reportedly drew a mere 325,000 PPV buys. To say that there wasn’t much of a buzz for that fight is an understatement.

Fight fans knew better. There was a certain intrigue to see the consummate boxer in Tyson Fury attempt to “dance through the rain drops” versus the hardest puncher in boxing, in Deontay Wilder. Handicapping the bout at the time, it was clear that Tyson Fury held a substantial skill edge while the power belonged to Wilder. So, if Fury could manage to stay upright for 12 rounds he would win a decision. What a fight. Tyson Fury as promised, put on a clinic, with a well thought out game plan that consisted of a stiff and accurate Jab with movement that provided a puzzle that Deontay Wilder could not solve. But, Wilder has the best eraser in the game (and possibly of all-time) in his right hand. The embarrassment of those first 8 rounds, where I gave 6 rounds to Fury and did not give him the other 2, only because Fury took breathers, and gave away 2 rounds to rest, was quickly forgotten, when Deontay lands a Jab, then a clubbing right hand, Fury loses his balance, and now we have a fight! From that point on, you could feel the tension that was in Staples Center coming through the TV screen. Round 10 kicks off with Wilder on the hunt, but he can’t find Fury with any of his punches. In fact, he lands only 1 of 39 punches according to the in arena punch stats. Fury on the other hand is masterful, and the rout is back on, as his stiff jab is telling the tale. He banks round 11, and surely, all he has to do is survive 3 minutes, and he is once again, not only the lineal Heavyweight Champion of the world, but now he has the hardware to prove it (He vacated his titles).

Round 12

Boxing, more than any other sport, lends itself to memorable moments that live on through the ages. George Foreman regaining his crown after 20 years had passed from his bout with Ali in Zaire. Marvin Hagler and Thomas Hearns actually going through with all their “WAR” pre-fight hype. Duran-Leonard. Bowe-Holyfield. Tyson Fury rising from the DEAD. It belongs. Round 12, begins like any other, till, Left Jab, right hand, left hook. Tyson Fury is out. He is not getting up. But, he is. Inexplicably. Wilder goes on the hunt, but Fury then proceeds to win the rest of the round. That the end result was a draw, was inconsequential. We got our money’s worth, and it was clear who the best two heavyweights in the world were. The rematch was sure to come, and after a very eventful set of fights for Tyson Fury and two spectacular knockouts from Wilder, we are here.

So how does this fight set up? Somewhat similar, but there is some nuance. Tyson Fury now knows he has to make Wilder pay in their exchanges, and can’t rest on just a jab. Wilder now knows he has to use his jab to break up Fury’s rhythm. Both now know that what they did last time is not good enough on this Saturday night in Las Vegas.

How does Tyson Fury win?

No way around it. He has to once again dance through the rain drops, while also mounting a more significant offense. He has to also avoid ducking his head after exchanges, and must always remain every bit of his 6′-9″ and not lower his head unnecessarily, so he doesn’t make it easy for Wilder to find his target. A jab and grab strategy should work in here, but most importantly, Fury has to be busy when Wilder starts to set his feet (Wilder tends to set both feet before combinations). He has to go against his instincts that tell him to escape right after a successful combination. He has to press his advantages when he has them, and must degrade Wilder’s power by making him expend energy in defending himself. Don’t let him carry his power to the later rounds. I don’t believe he can win by knockout, becasue that would entail taking many risks that could lead to unconsciousness, but he can win a decisive unanimous decision.

How does Deontay Wilder win?

He can’t win a decision, without some help from the judges, simply because he needs knockdowns to gain rounds on Fury, because he is not the skilled fighter here. He has built his 42-0 record with his 41 knockouts by hunting from the opening bell while also giving away rounds in order to find his opponent with a counter, or have them weaken themselves fighting a high stress fight. Trust me, fighting Wilder has to be the most stressful thing in sports. You can literally watch yourself dominate Wilder with your skill, and showcase the superiority of your craft, then you find yourself in the dressing room asking what had happened (that happened). Wilder in this fight must hunt smartly. Follow Fury through his escape and employ different angles to attack Fury’s defenses. If he dares to duck away to avoid a combination, include a uppercut. If he escapes to his right, throw left hooks, and vice versa. He cannot let Fury rest and gather himself after exchanges. Pressure must be applied, and it can be something as easy as jabbing Fury’s arms, or shooting feints, followed by jabs to score and get Fury moving. Above all, patience. If you are busy, not in punch volume, but mere activity, the knockdown/out should come. It has come in 41 of 43 fights, and the one draw, you dropped this very opponent twice.

Prediction: The Betdsi Betting line has Deontay Wilder as the slight favorite at -118. Tyson Fury is at -102. The over/under in rounds is at 10.5. I see this fight being a much more technical affair, and Wilder hunting effectively, knocking Tyson Fury out at the every edge of the Over/under. I have Deontay Wilder by knockout in Round 10.

Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.

Examining the Miami Heat’s Young Core

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All-Star Weekend was a busy one for the Miami Heat.

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were the headliners, becoming the first pair of Heat teammates since LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to grace the All-Star game floor.

Adebayo added a Skills Challenge trophy to his cabinet — and some money to Butler’s ongoing three-point tab. Between that and Butler ethering the Raptors, it’s safe to say the Heat stars showed out.

Beyond that, the Heat were able to put some of their “others” on display. Tyler Herro was set to play in the Rising Stars game, but an ank- er, foot — injury during Miami’s blow-out win over the 76ers knocked him out.

Kendrick Nunn was there to carry the mantle, scoring 16 points in Team USA’s 151-131 victory.

Duncan Robinson represented the Heat in the three-point contest, though his score (19) underwhelmed relative to his regular season success.

The winner of the weekend, as controversial as it may be, was Derrick Jones Jr. To say he entered the weekend confident would be a massive understatement.

Jones Jr. didn’t quite live up to his nothing-but-50s prediction, but he was able to bring the title home over Aaron Gordon. Not only did he rack up high scores in the contest, he was able to secure a shoe deal with Puma to cap off his weekend.

Now, the real fun starts. The Heat (35-19) have 28 games left to build up good habits and solidify their rotation. They’re currently the 4th seed — a fine place considering their competition, and in line with their preseason goals for home court advantage.

“We’re getting to the point of the season where the rubber’s kinda meeting the road,” Duncan Robinson tells Five Reason Sports over the weekend.

“We no longer want to be that ‘fun’ team or whatever. We want to push into that next level. With the playoffs on the horizon, our main focus is to position ourselves the best that we can.”

This also serves as an important stretch for the Heat’s young guys. The Heat need them for the playoff push, sure. But if we know anything about Pat Riley, it’s that he’ll push the chips to the middle of the table for a bonafide star.

The Heat are set to make splashes in each of the next two summers. If maneuvering is needed, some of the young pieces will be casualties, for lack of a better phrase.

With that, let’s take stock of the Heat’s young gunners.

Tyler Herro

Key stats: 13.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 39.3 percent from 3 (5.5 attempts)

Current role: Floor spacer, secondary creator

This one will be brief.

The Heat love Herro, their bleep-you, guard-me-if-you-can rookie with some big moments under his belt. He’s been better than, um, some people have anticipated. His offensive feel, three-point shooting, intermediate touch, and pick-and-roll chops are positives already. As he continues to adjust to NBA speed and physicality, Herro should shine playing off the Butler-Adebayo combo.

The defense is a bit of a problem. His off-ball instincts are fine, but the lack of length and burst — lateral and vertical — limits his ceiling on the ball. Miami has been a better team with Herro on the bench. That isn’t a massive indictment — it’s normal for rookies — but his defense is worth monitoring.

Status: (virtually) untouchable

Herro has been taken off the table in trade talks. Bradley Beal, a “former” Heat target, is probably the worst player the Heat would consider trading Herro for.

In short, unless a top-10 player that is 28 or younger becomes available, Herro is going to be a member of the Heat.

Kendrick Nunn

Key stats: 15.3 points, 3.5 assists, 34.1 percent from 3 (5.7 attempts)

Current role: secondary creator

Nunn kicked off the season on fire. He scored from all three levels offensively, and consistently blew up ball-screens on the other end. The makings of a two-way terror were on display; the Rookie of the Year award was heading to Miami.

Then, we hit November.

Nunn started getting back-cut. The missed passing windows become more egregious. The three-point shooting regressed a bit. He was still fine — good, by rookie standards — but some of the allure wore off.

Now, Nunn is working his way back from an Achilles injury. It’s been rough lately — 9.9 points with a 30/24/80 shooting split over his last seven games — but we shouldn’t lose sight of what Nunn is, and how far he’s come.

His three-level scoring chops are still legit. You can trust him to take the right shot against Drop coverage. His comfort around the elbows with jumpers or floaters will be important against teams like Philadephia. The game has slowed down a bit, evidenced by his moderate bump in assist-to-turnover ratio since December 1st (1.5 to 2.4).

Like Herro, Nunn is still a bit of a screen magnet defensively. It’s a bigger issue because he’s at the point of attack, and the Heat have been squishy on the interior. Him becoming a competent screen navigator is wildly important to his ceiling.

Status: important but movable

Nunn is the kind of secondary scorer the Heat need alongside Butler, who is more battering ram than pull-up artist. The Heat were also reportedly willing to include Nunn in a three-team deal that would’ve netted them Danilo Gallinari.

In short: Nunn is a prime candidate to be cashed in.

It’s important to note that there is no real attachment to Nunn; he was an end-of-season signing that has blown up more than anyone could’ve reasonably projected. He serves an important role, but selling high for an established guy isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Duncan Robinson

Key stats: 12.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 43.8 percent from 3 (8.1 attempts)

Current role: off-ball weapon

Robinson is, at worst, a top five shooter in the NBA. He’s nearly automatic on catch-and-shoot looks, and is Ellington-esque as an off-movement shooter. The Heat leverage his marksmanship by involving him in countless dribble-handoffs, and using him as a low screener to flummox defenses.

Before the season, Erik Spoelstra said Robinson was one of the best shooters in the world, and that it was up to him to prove it.

It’s, uh, safe to say he’s proven it this season.

Status: important

Robinson is arguably Miami’s most important offensive player. Their offensive rating drops over seven points with Robinson on the bench. He’s their best weapon against drop coverage; his off-movement shooting via dribble-handoffs put defenses in impossible situations.

As good as Robinson is offensively, he’s just as much of a mess defensively. Teams have begun to pick on him more aggressively, and that will ramp up during the playoffs. The Heat desperately need to become average — or slightly below — to fully maximize him.

Even with that, it’s hard to imagine Robinson being expendable. He’s essentially a 6’8 Ellington with more passing chops. The Heat have the defenders to flank Robinson with — Butler, Adebayo, Andre Iguodala, and Jae Crowder to name a few. If Herro or Nunn hold their weight as on-ball defenders, the Heat can probably survive with Robinson as the only minus defender on the floor.

Derrick Jones Jr.

Key stats: 8.7 points, 4.2 rebounds (1.0 offensive), 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks

Current role: Defensive specialist, freelance-4

The champ is here!

[insert drums here]

The champ is here!

Miami’s confident high flyer finally has the hardware to solidify himself as the game’s most absurd dunker.

Jones Jr. is more than a dunker, though. He’s a prolific offensive rebounder, sneaky-good half-court finisher (1.29 PPP, 79th percentile via Synergy), and a bit of a terror defensively. We know what Jones Jr. does in Miami’s zone, but his on-ball defense has improved immensely from last season.

Jones Jr. still feels a bit incomplete offensively. His handle is improved, but still loose. The footwork on drives gets a bit iffy. The jumper, or lack thereof, is the canyon-sized hole that needs to be closed. For what it’s worth, he recognizes that his jumper will unlock everything.

“If I have to choose one thing [to work on], it’s my jumper,” Jones Jr tells Five Reasons Sports.

“I have the ball-handling to do what I want. I have the athleticism to do what I want. Once I get that shot — I got it — but when it gets consistent, that’s a wrap.”

We shall see.

Status: safe for now

From my view, Jones Jr has been the most expendable part of the Heat’s young core precisely because of his offensive skill set. He doesn’t quite handle the ball well enough to play the 3, and isn’t a good enough shooter to provide real value as a stretch-ish 4.

To his credit, he’s done a fantastic job of using gaps to his advantage. More space from the perimeter has allowed him to build up runways for putback slams. He’s a smart guy off the ball, and that’s valuable.

The Heat deciding to trade Justise Winslow and hang onto Jones Jr, a free agent this summer, should be seen as a vote of confidence. They like what he brings to the table, and believe in how hard he works. If the shot does come around, the Heat may just have their 4 of the future.

 

Jonathan Villar, right, works with Isan Diaz on the first day of spring training. Villar, an infielder, could end up in center field. (Craig Davis for Five Reasons Sports)

Pressure Point: Are rebuilding Marlins ready to take step to relevance?

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JUPITER

Welcome to Camp Optimism, which is a most unfamiliar moniker for Miami Marlins spring training.

It’s not full-blown optimism, mind you, in the sense of, hey, we’re ready to kick ass like a genuine big fish.

That would be absurd for a team coming off a 105-loss season, and that’s not what’s going on here. That mindset is reserved for the team housed on the opposite side of the Roger Dean Stadium complex — the Cardinals, who find a way to be a factor year after year.

For the Marlins, this year is about hope and finally the expectation of beginning to rise out of the malaise of a lost decade. That is fueled by the belief that the franchise is finally moving away from the clown show of the past.

“It’s time for us to move forward,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said Monday on the first day of full-squad workouts at spring training. “There will be disappointment if we don’t make measurable gains this year.”

Rebuilding plan faces test

Owner Bruce Sherman actually took a swipe at the way previous ownership operated, saying, “I don’t want to have up and downs, up and downs. That’s a silly way to run a baseball club.”

Of course, the Sherman/Derek Jeter regime began two years ago by trading away all of the team’s All-Stars and big names in embarking on a bottom-up rebuild.

The turnover is evident. There are only five players on the roster who were here in 2017; Miguel Rojas and Brian Anderson are the lone position players who were on the team when Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna comprised the then-best outfield in baseball.

Keep in mind, the Marlins never won more than they lost with that group. There is no guarantee this approach will work either, of restocking the farm system and waiting for the tide of young talent to elevate the product in Miami.

Michael Hill, Marlins president of baseball operations, dodged a question about how much improvement in the win column would be reasonable to expect.

Hill did say, “Now a lot of that upper level talent is on the 40-man roster. Once that happens, it’s only opportunity at that point.”

Hence, Hill’s message to the young prospects: “Go out and let your talent shine. If you’ve got it, flaunt it. Let it go. Go have fun … and give yourself every opportunity to show what you’re capable of doing.”

Uphill climb in NL East

Mattingly took that message a step further to the identity of team he’s trying to assemble: “We want a club that starts to exude that confidence, starts to show a little bit of swagger and starts to have a little push back and expectation that we’re better than this if we’re not playing well.”

These Marlins must push these aspirations in the NL East against the defending World Series champion Nationals, the division champion Braves whose young prospects are already blossoming into stars, a well-armed Mets team and a Phillies team spending money like they’re printing it.

Most of the young players the Marlins are counting on for the foundation of the mantra Sherman and Co. have adopted of “sustainable winning” haven’t been tested about the Double A level.

To me, what this season will be about for the Marlins is seeing some the touted talent reaching Miami and providing the first indication whether they are as good as advertised. At the top of the list would be starting pitchers such as Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Jorge Guzman and Nick Neidert.

If success is on the horizon it will be built on the young arms, which Hill noted are ahead of the top hitting prospects in the organization. The hope is that some of the bats they are pinning hopes on will show progress toward legitimacy, at least in the upper levels of the minors.

Meanwhile, there are a few more accomplished major-league hitters in camp with the offseason additions of Jonathan Villar, Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar and Matt Kemp (on a minor-league contract).

Villar odd choice for center field

The one curious bit of news from Day 1 was Mattingly saying that Villar would get a serious look initially in center field during spring training.

Villar played 162 games last year for the Baltimore Orioles. Primarily a second baseman, he didn’t appear in the outfield in any of them. He has started in center field in just six of 785 big-league games.

His chances of playing in every game again this season would seem greatly diminished if he is asked to cover the vast expanse of center field at Marlins Park, particularly with the addition of artificial turf this season.

Dickerson, slated for left field, played on similar turf at Tampa Bay.

Regarding the toll it takes, Dickerson said, “Your shins, your back, things you’ve got to get used to. It’s definitely going to hurt teams coming in and not getting over that first couple of days. They’re kind of sore right away. We have to figure out ways to stay on top of it to make sure your body is optimal and ready to go.”

For his part, Villar said, “I’m here for the team. If they want me to play centerfield, I’ll try,” though his face conveyed some doubt.

Meanwhile, Villar spent the first day working at second base along with rookie Isan Diaz.

This will be an issue that bears watching as Camp Optimism progresses.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Miami Dolphins should draft BYU safety Austin Lee

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This column was written by Marcos Chisholm. Follow him on Twitter @marcosgchisholm.

In possession of the 18th and 26th picks in the first round of the NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins are expected to pursue an offensive lineman and a safety. But if they instead opt to target secondary talent after day one of the draft, BYU safety Austin Lee can emerge as a highly effective, under-the-radar pickup.

“I always dreamed and felt that I could play in the NFL,” Lee said. “It felt more a reality as I got to my senior year and my second game in versus Tennessee was a big-time game which I played well in. It was then I realized I’m getting closer to my dreams.”

Even in a talented draft class where Alabama’s Xavier McKinney and LSU’s Grant Delpit rank among the best safeties, Lee’s resume and skill set afford him credibility and indicate he could very well add to the chemistry in Miami’s hybrid defense.

The defensive standout’s clutch performance in an overtime victory against the Volunteers last September served as a turning point in his collegiate career. Lee was recently ranked 86th on PFF’s 101 Best College Football Players of 2019 list after finishing among the top twenty FBS safeties in categories such as overall grade (15th), coverage grade (16th), and yards allowed (7th). Most notably, Lee allowed zero touchdowns throughout last year, a rare feat for players on the field for more than 300 snaps in a single season. The Cougars only allowed 46 plays of 20 yards or more with Lee’s help last season.

While BYU’s system can potentially limit the duties of defensive backs by dropping eight players into coverage, Lee’s self-awareness and efficient movements help him make up for a lack of explosiveness that higher-ranked draft prospects tout. He becomes unpredictable on the field because his high football IQ does not require him to solely commit to either playing the run or deep passes.

“I feel like I have my own game. But I model a lot of what I do through seeing Eric Weddle and Jamal Adams. I love the instincts, toughness, IQ, and physicality that those guys play with,” Lee said. “They both are just competitors and play with such tenacity.”

Lee’s modern-day football role models play with strikingly different styles at the safety position. However, he takes the best from both worlds in a way that suits Miami’s positionless defensive scheme. Hybrid systems demand dynamic players, and his ability to teeter between the traditional roles of free and strong safeties as the game evolves can make him an invaluable asset.

Yet there’s no certainty of what changes to the Dolphins’ defensive scheme will come next season. Patrick Graham, Miami’s defensive coordinator in 2019, officially joined the New York Giants as an assistant coach last month. Former Dolphins cornerbacks coach Josh Boyer was internally promoted to Graham’s previous role, and safeties coach Tony Oden was fired from Brian Flores’ staff in January before being replaced by Curt Kuntz.

And Lee — who has never adhered to the traditional roles of a two-man safety dynamic — has strategically modeled his game for the 2020s and beyond. In spite of his mediocre athleticism, his focus on fluidity and adaptability have allowed him to fit into every scheme he has played for. But considering Dolphins safeties Rashad Jones and Bobby McCain already have uncertain futures in Miami, scouts and draft analysts may question what Lee would bring different to the table.

Ultimately, it’s his life off-the-field that encapsulates why he can bring value to many NFL teams. After initially signing to play for BYU rival Utah in 2012, Lee went on a multimonth LDS mission to Oklahoma that forced him to miss an entire season. He then fell in love with his wife, Kortnie, and married her in 2015. And in between transferring schools and playing Division I football, the couple parent their two kids, Ledger and Romee.

The selfless approach that comes from starting a family is the same one that fuels his ability to be a leader for his teammates. “I feel like my leadership capability can be high,” Lee said. “I lead through example and when something needs to be said I say something. The best teams are player-led and leadership is huge.”

Above all else, Miami has lacked leadership on defense that can help build a new culture under Brian Flores. When considering Miami’s off-the-field issues in the last decade, it will be imperative that the Dolphins draft talent for reasons beyond a prospect’s athleticism and playmaking abilities. Not only can Lee’s proven habits foster the growth of a locker room that lacks a dependable player voice — but they have an opportunity to provide him the chance to last longer than the average NFL player.

Panthers coach Joel Quenneville focuses on the positives from opening-night loss to Lightning. (Craig Davis for Five Reasons Sports)

A rough patch or just more of the same?

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The Florida Panthers find themselves in a very familiar place: on the outside looking in. At 29-20-6 the Panthers find themselves 2 points back of the third playoff spot for the Atlantic division and 5 points behind for a wildcard spot.
In most cases, you might be okay with this as a Panthers fan. In years of Panthers past, you could even say you’d be satisfied. With 27 games left, the Panthers control their own destiny to get back in to the playoffs.

That may be the root of the problem.

This year is suppose to be different. This was the year everything was suppose to change. For the most part, they have. The Panthers used most of their cap room in the off-season. They signed the biggest goalie free agent. They got into a room with Artemi Panarin. They hired arguably one of the five best coaches in NHL history in Joel Quenneville. The pieces were filled to sorrowing the core, a problem they’ve needed to fix for years. The winning culture was in place.

For the first half of the season, we saw the changes. The value signings the Panthers made were paying dividends. Noel Acciari has 18 goals. Brett Connolly has 17. Daddanov has 23. This led to early success, for the most part of the first half of the season, the Panthers held or were within 4 points of a playoff spot. Going into the all-star break, the Panthers were playing their best hockey, winning 6 straight games. Going into the break, the Panthers were 4 points up on Toronto for third in the Atlantic and only trailed Tampa by a point.

Due to the All-Star break and the scheduled bye week, the Panthers went 10+ days without playing a game after the winning streak.

Since the All Star break, it has been a much different start. The Panthers are 1-4-1 and have been out scored 22-10 in that time span. They’ve lost about 5 points in the wild card race and 6 in the division. Though, they still have a game in hand so we’ll call it 4. 

With the trade deadline coming up, you can almost expect the Panthers will be buyers. Dale Tallon will be aggressive to make sure this team gets in. The Panthers are starved for upgrading their defensive line. They have assets, picks and prospects to try to swing a deal. Or they may use their NHL talent on the offensive side of the puck to get a defensive. Whatever way they do it, they need to make a move.

If the 2019-2020 Panthers want to separate themselves from past Panthers teams, the turnaround needs to start now. The Panthers play a last place Devils team tonight, a big wild card swing game on Thursday vs the Flyers and the Oilers. 5 of 6 points might be necessary for them.

These next few games will see if the culture has changed for Panthers hockey, or we will see if they are heading towards missing the playoffs again for the 18th time in the last 20 years.

For the sake of the Panthers, we hope this is just a rough patch and we see them playing hockey in mid-April.   

Launching Pad: Shiny New Toys, Duncan’s Gravity, DJJ’s Jumper

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses

• Record: 34-18, 4th in the East (1-3)

• Offensive Rating: 111.9 (116.7)

• Defensive Rating: 108.6 (116.7)

• Net Rating: plus-3.3 (net-zero)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.5 (57.8)

• Pace: 99.28 (97.25)

• Time of Possession: 14.8 seconds (14.5)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Derrick Jones Jr., Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk

• Minutes: 13

• Offensive Rating: 200.0 (?????????????????????????)

• Defensive Rating: 103.8

• Net Rating: plus-96.2 (????????????????????????????????????)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 86.8 (!!!!!!!!!?!?!??!!?!?!?!!?!!!!!?!????????)

• Pace: 99.05

The Big Number: 0.966

The Heat’s defense remains a question mark. They rank 14th in the league in defensive rating (108.6), which is well below the standard that Erik Spoelstra — and especially Pat Riley — has set for the club. That factoid seems to be, at least, the second biggest reason for their trade deadline deal for a trio of wing defenders.

The Heat are currently allowing 0.966 points per possession in man via Synergy, which ranks 15th in the league. Perfectly average. They’ve been better in zone (0.94 PPP, 7th), though the gap closing is why there was a desperate need for reinforcements.

The hope is that the new additions help shore up things in man. Better containment on the perimeter should lead to less breakdowns on the back end, and less three-pointers allowed. Beyond that, more success in man would allow the Heat to deploy their zone as a change of pace, more than a necessity to hide bad defenders.

Weekly Trends

1. Heat have options

Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, and James Johnson are gone.

Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, and Solomon Hill* are here.

With that, the Heat have some shiny toys in the chest for Coach Spo to play with.

Iguodala — no, I’m not calling him “Iggy” and you shouldn’t either — and Crowder made their debuts on Sunday night against the Portland Trail Blazers. The duo combined for 20 points, 17 rebounds, and six assists off the bench. Both players had positive plus-minuses, for those who care about that sort of thing.

Iguodala (2-6-3-1-1) didn’t have a huge box score night, but he made the kind of subtle plays that will earn Spo’s trust. Take this possession for example.

 

Iguodala pushes after a miss, then flows into a dribble handoff with Crowder. Nothing’s there, so the offense resets with a 1-5 pick-and-roll. As the ball screen takes place, Iguodala notices CJ McCollum ball-watching, so he sets a blind pick for Crowder in the corner.

McCollum eventually recovers and contests the shot, but that specific read highlights Iguodala’s IQ. He may not be the best scorer or shooter, but he understands how to attack — and in this case, create — cracks in defenses that others can exploit.

While Iguodala had more of a subtly good performance, Crowder (18-11-2-3-1) did … quite a bit. If there’s a sequence that embodies the Crowder Experience, it’d be this run late in the second quarter:

Crowder had himself a day, particularly in the second half. He provided rugged on-ball defense and enough hustle to dust off the “Culture” hashtag. More eye-poppingly, Crowder drilled five of his eight triples, marking the ninth time in his career that he’s made at least five threes in a game.

The idea of Crowder and Iguodala closing out games, as they did on Sunday night, will hinge almost solely on their ability to knock down shots from outside. They have to keep defenses honest to opening up driving lanes for Jimmy Butler, whenever he returns from his shoulder issue. Crowder passed the smell test on Sunday; Iguodala didn’t, though he made so many plays that it didn’t matter much.

Keep an eye out on Crowder specifically. With Olynyk continuing to struggle defensively, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Spo experiment with a Crowder-Bam Adebayo frontcourt to kick off games.

2. Duncan Robinson, using fear as an asset

Robinson has established himself as one of the NBA’s best shooters. He’s elite off the catch, and a flame thrower firing off of screens. Robinson is especially effective operating in dribble handoffs, generating nearly 1.5 points per possession (98th percentile).

Teams know that Robinson only needs a sliver of space to fire, which puts incredible strain on the defenders tasked with shutting down those handoffs. If Robinson’s man is trailing, it’s up to the big (or whoever) to show high and cut off that window. But that’s becoming a death sentence as well.

Robinson averaged 3.0 assists last week. That isn’t a lot, but it’s a pretty sizable bump from his season average. It’s also notable because a lot of them looked like this:

And this:

Robinson has become a bit of an offense onto his own, similar to how Wayne Ellington was during his stint in Miami. Except, you know, with more size and even more passing feel.

3. Derrick Jones Jr’s hot streak

When the Heat traded Winslow, it was mostly for present contributions and future flexibility. It’s the Riley MO, as we all know. But very quietly, it was a vote of confidence for Derrick Jones Jr, a tweener forward with a budding skill set.

It’s a bit of a gamble. His catch radius on lobs remains absurd. There’s been tangible growth from him as a finisher in the half court. Those are fine skills in a vacuum, but the jumper is the real swing skill for him.

Jones Jr. is shooting 28.6 percent from deep on the season, and 27.1 percent from the corners. Those numbers obviously won’t cut it if he wants to be more than an exciting rotation piece that can get schemed out of a playoff series.

It’s why his hot streak from three — 53.3 percent last week, 47.6 percent over his last eight games — couldn’t have come at a better time. Teams still largely ignore him from beyond the arc, but he’s taking (and making) enough in rhythm to force defenses to at least think about him. That’s a win for him, and the Heat.

Set Play of the Week

HORNS Slice, with a twist

Whew, baby, is there a lot going on here.

 

The Heat kick things off with an Iverson cut for Olynyk — watch as he cuts across a couple of screens — before settling into (some semblance of) their HORNS alignment.

Kendrick Nunn enters the ball into Adebayo, and then the real fun begins.

Nunn clears, while Robinson sets a screen for Jones Jr. Bogdan Bogdonovic gets caught on the screen, leaving Buddy Hield in limbo. If he continues to chase Robinson, Jones Jr. is open for a lob. Instead, he hangs back, which allows Robinson to pop up for three.

Harry Giles steps up to help while Bogdonovic recovers. Adebayo reads this and slips to the basket. After receiving the pass, Adebayo is faced with a 2-on-1; Hield steps up, presenting a passing window for Jones Jr, or a rather glaring mismatch inside.

Adebayo takes advantage of the latter, finishing with a leaning layup over the sharpshooter.

As mentioned in the second section, the threat of Robinson as a shooter terrifies defenses. His screen for Jones Jr. is what sets up the entire chain reaction.

Justise Winslow in Miami, promise unfulfilled

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The Justise Winslow era wasn’t supposed to go like this.

When he fell to the 10th pick in 2015, the consensus was that Pat Riley and the Miami Heat got the steal of the draft in the form of a teenage wing with promising offensive potential and rare defensive versatility. He was a champion, a product of the Duke program that the Heat organization has been so fond of. Under the tutelage of Dwyane Wade Justise was supposed to blossom into stardom and take the torch from his mentor, leading the team into the next era.

None of that worked out quite right. After an impressive rookie year his mentor left, injuries cut his sophomore season short, a crowded backcourt forced him to play out of position more frequently than was preferable, and the holes in his offensive game made it difficult to fit him back into a rotation that was largely constructed in his absence.

 

 

When he was on the floor and not squeezed into an awkward spot in the lineup, he was undeniably good. He had his shortcomings, sure, but his defense was as good as advertised and his playmaking ability shocked a lot of fans. Before the acquisition of Jimmy Butler there wasn’t a player on the team who could make some of the passes Justise made with relative consistency. Winslow made huge strides as a shooter in a relatively short amount of time, and at times it looked like he was becoming the borderline all star everyone wanted him to be. If he had been able to stay on the court for a prolonged period he would’ve been incredibly valuable to a young competitive Heat team that struggles to defend the perimeter at time. Unfortunately, for Justise, that was a huge if.

 

Justise Winslow hasn’t had one recurring injury that would raise a huge red flag like in the case of Greg Oden or Joel Embiid (who has been successful despite health concerns), and it is difficult to know how serious his recent injuries are. What we do know is that he couldn’t stay on the floor for an extended stretch and it didn’t look like that was going to change in the near future. As fans and media members, we can talk about whether what they got back in the Grizzlies trade was an adequate return but, at a certain point, that’s all irrelevant. It has become clear that the Justise Winslow era in Miami ended some time before Pat Riley got on the phone with the Memphis front office. To fault either party for the deterioration of the relationship would require knowledge we don’t have. The only certainty is that the relationship was over.

 

The Grizzlies got a great young talent. If Justise Winslow thrives in Memphis, it should be a surprise to nobody. But his shortcomings as an off-ball offensive talent will always make it complicated to cleanly slot him into a rotation and Pat Riley understandably decided that a competitive Miami team didn’t have the time to continually work the oft-injured Winslow back into a rotation that is running relatively smoothly. Memphis is still young, they can afford to have the patience that a player like Justise necessitates.

 

Many Miami Heat fans (myself included) were attached to Winslow. He’s a promising, personable young player who has been refreshingly open about his mental health. Any success he has in Memphis should delight the fans who loved him. It should not necessarily serve as an indictment of the Heat organization. Miami needed the flexibility and Justise Winslow needed the fresh start. Best of luck to both parties.

 

Dolphins 2020 draftPerry McIntyre - Georgia Athletics

Fresh Perspective: Building the 2020 Miami Dolphins – Draft 2.0

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Once again, after the initial free agency burst, the focus becomes the NFL draft. If by some miracle, the Dolphins manage to follow the offseason plan, a lot of money will be spent. Some contracts may need to be creatively structured to make sure there’s enough room for everyone. Also, this bears repeating. This plan is merely what I would do to ensure a speedy rise to the top. This is not a prediction of what the Dolphins will do. I suspect my vision what Miami will do and what I want them to do are vastly different.

Nevertheless, I hope GM Chris Grier sees the vast talent available in this year’s free agent class and does everything he can to bring some of the high profile signings to the Dolphins.

But now is the time for a new mock draft, and Miami still has a lot of picks to use. The previous plan had a lot of unrealistic choices made, that’s plainly obvious. So this time, I took to you, the readers, to tell me what you felt was the best way to go about it.

So with those results in mind, I decided to switch to TheDraftNetwork’s mock draft machine instead of defaulting back to Fanspeak. It was challenging to make up my mind on certain picks, but what I’ve come up with will hopefully put the Dolphins in a strong position to contend both now and in the future.

Regardless of whether they get all the free agents or not.

Without further ado, here are the results.

2020 Miami Dolphins Draft

Round 1, 5th Overall – Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa

Here we are again. In a bizarre twist of fate, the Dolphins don’t need the first overall pick to get their hands on Tua Tagovailoa. They aren’t even going to need to trade up from their draft position at fifth overall. Unfortunately, the entire reason behind this is his severely injured hip.

Regardless of how the medicals eventually come out, it’s understood that Tua is going to have to sit for a year. His rookie season will be spent on the bench. Is that necessarily a bad thing? Depends on your point of view. Folks who want the instant excitement of a rookie quarterback will be sorely disappointed. Those that remember how Patrick Mahomes sat for a year before entering the league will be more open to the concept. Even Tua himself seems to love the idea of playing for the Dolphins.

Make no mistake, the only question mark regarding Tua is his durability. Everything else about him screams elite NFL QB. His poise, his pocket presence, his accuracy. To draw a parallel, Miami is getting a second chance at Drew Brees. The Dolphins doctors decided to choose Daunte Culpepper over Brees back during the brief Nick Saban era on account of medical concerns. That’s burned them for nearly two decades.

This time, it’s Tua’s hip that’s the issue. There’s speculation regarding whether Tua will ever be able to play football again. Even if he does, will he be the same player he was before his hip injury? The doctors will undoubtedly have their say.

This time, however, if Miami is smart, they will learn from past mistakes. Sometimes, it’s best to throw caution to the wind and make a bold decision. Tua may not play up to his full potential due to injury…but if he does, the Dolphins will find themselves set for the next decade.

And just to go ahead and mention this, there won’t be another QB taken in this draft. Miami already has a developmental QB on the roster. His name is Josh Rosen.

So Miami’s opening day QBs are as follows:

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Josh Rosen
  • Tua Tagovailoa

Sounds like an impressive lineup.

Round 1, 18th Overall – LSU EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson

While Chaisson is no Chase Young when it comes to dominating offensive linemen, Chaisson does have some very promising aspects of his game. His burst off the edge is remarkable, making him a potent speed rusher that if anyone gets caught looking, they’re gonna get beat. On top of that, Chaisson is surprisingly effective in setting the edge. Any concerns about him not fitting the scheme go away in that instance.

The biggest knock on Chaisson is his lack of numeric production. Compared to other pass rushers in this draft class (see Chase Young), his numbers don’t exactly scream game-changer. He only had 6.5 sacks in 2019, and his tackle numbers really aren’t even worth mentioning. However, this is where watching film is crucial.

Where Chaisson’s numbers lack, his film makes up for it in spades. He can function with his hand in the dirt, he can also attack standing up. Chaisson even has some ability in coverage, making his versatility a huge boon for whoever drafts him. In all seriousness, his potential to do it all actually reminds me of Dion Jordan…without the downsides.

The only knock on Chaisson as far as his game goes is that he’s still got room to grow technique-wise. Every aspect of his game relies more on his natural athleticism than actual skill. But this is not a bad thing right now. Remember what the Dolphins are all about now. They’re focusing on teaching and developing players. Chaisson is pliable, ready to be molded into a superstar.

Pair him with Yannick Ngakoue (hopefully) and Miami should have a very strong pass rush very soon. It just won’t be quite as instantaneous as if they were able to pick Chase Young. Patience will be crucial.

  • Yannick Ngakoue
  • K’Lavon Chaisson
  • Taco Charlton
  • Charles Harris

Round 1, 26th Overall – Georgia RB D’Andre Swift

Since Miami likely won’t be able to afford Derrick Henry after spending plenty on OL and key defensive cornerstones, the draft becomes crucial to find a new running back. After the awful season by Kalen Ballage, and the unforgivable actions by Mark Walton that sent him packing, all hope currently sits on the backs of Myles Gaskin and Patrick Laird.

To be clear, this is not a knock on either of those players. Gaskin was consistently productive at Washington, and Laird quietly had one heck of a season in his limited playing time. In fact, it didn’t take long for fans to clamor for more of Laird and much, much less of Ballage. Once Laird did play, the difference was easy to see.

But Laird lacks any elite physical qualities that make him a truly capable starting running back in the NFL. He’s good, but his ceiling is low. The Dolphins need someone who can put defenses on their heels with his physical ability. And that’s where Swift comes into play.

There is one concern that needs to be taken into account. Swift is very aggressive and he’s willing to put his body on the line on every down. Normally, that’s a plus. But that stops being a plus once the player actually gets injured, which Swift did in 2019. He suffered a shoulder injury that limited his playing time, and he’ll need to learn to protect himself more at the NFL level. He can only contribute if he’s healthy.

But his playmaking potential is too much to pass up for the Dolphins. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller compares his skillset to Alvin Kamara. That’s a serious comparison to make, considering what kind of a player Kamara is. He’s decent at pass protection, he makes defenders miss, he can pretty much do it all.

Hopefully this time, Miami will keep their future star RB rather than letting him walk.

  • D’Andre Swift
  • Patrick Laird
  • Kalen Ballage
  • Myles Gaskin
  • Chandler Cox

Round 2, 39th Overall – Houston OT Josh Jones

It’s hard to tell whether Josh Jones at 39 is realistic or not. His Senior Bowl performance captured a lot of attention. But the board fell to the point he’s available for the Dolphins to select with their first 2nd round draft pick. Jones is a raw prospect with the length to play left tackle and light on his feet.

The issue with Jones is not his speed, his strength, or his size. It’s his overall technique. Every evaluator who watches Jones play essentially says the same thing. He’s got all the potential in the world, but he needs some time to cook before he’s ready to take over for a team at left tackle. He has to learn how to use his hands and work on his awareness. He’s very much a work-in-progress that needs serious polishing.

This is precisely why the need for a stopgap at left tackle is so necessary. Jones needs time to sit with the offensive line coach and learn the techniques that he hasn’t yet. Jones has all the physical tools in the world. But this is why Anthony Castonzo is signed to a two-year contract. The first year is to make sure Miami can compete while Jones sits behind him. The second year is just in case Jones isn’t ready quite yet. But with any luck, Castonzo can be released after just one year, save some money, and Jones will become the Dolphins’ franchise left tackle.

  • Anthony Castonzo
  • Josh Jones
  • Jack Conklin
  • Jesse Davis (G/T)

Round 2, 56th Overall – Auburn OT Prince Tega Wanogho

And now is when doubling up is important. It’s called hedging bets. Prince Tega Wanogho is another player that requires a certain amount of development before he’s truly ready for the NFL. However, he also has a crazy high ceiling. He’s new to playing football, as he’s only been playing organized football since high school. So just like Jones, he’s a project.

But he’s a very intriguing prospect.

Ironically enough, he actually had some strong reps against K’Lavon Chaisson during their matchup. Chaisson, of course, was drafted in the first round by Miami. Depending on how you look at this, it either proves Wanogho has potential to be a stud left tackle (or perhaps even right tackle), or Chaisson isn’t all he’s hyped up to be.

For Miami’s sake, it better be the former. This is the risk that comes with the draft. Either players are going to be awesome, or they’re going to bust. This is where the Dolphins have to prove that their ability to develop players wasn’t just a fluke. They took undrafted free agent Nik Needham and turned him into a solid reserve/spot starter type cornerback. They dragged Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker out of bustdom.

Now, they have two high ceiling offensive linemen to teach how to play the position. Ideally, Jones will become the starter at left tackle after one year of Castonzo, and Wanogho can spend a couple years developing behind Conklin if they sign him. If they don’t, then Jesse Davis will either start, or Wanogho might find himself thrown into the fire.

  • Anthony Castonzo
  • Josh Jones
  • Jack Conklin
  • Jesse Davis (G/T)
  • Prince Tega Wanogho

Round 3, 70th Overall – Washington G/C Nick Harris

Time to part ways with veteran center Daniel Kilgore, which saves the Dolphins about $4 million dollars. That saved money will help them sign their free agents and draft picks. To replace Kilgore, Miami drafts interior offensive lineman Nick Harris.

Harris is a perfect fit for a zone blocking scheme. He’s versatile, he’s excellent at getting to the second level and blocking in space, which makes him a valuable asset in the running game. He’s not exactly physically imposing, but he knows where to be and when to be there. Considering the Dolphins couldn’t run the ball to save their lives last season, Harris should help D’Andre Swift ignite the running game.

Originally, I planned to draft Tyler Biadasz out of Wisconsin and give Michael Deiter his old center from his college days. With any luck, that would have jumpstarted his game. But considering Biadasz regressed in nearly every facet of his game this past season, I elected to draft a player who’s trending up, not down. Deiter will benefit more from having a good player rather than an old teammate.

  • Brandon Scherff
  • Nick Harris
  • Michael Deiter
  • Shaq Calhoun
  • Jesse Davis (G/T)

Round 5, 135th Overall – Wake Forest CB Essang Bassey

The Dolphins signing Byron Jones helps a lot with the cornerback position, especially since Xavien Howard – should he remain with the team after his domestic violence incident – will undoubtedly be suspended by the NFL. Thankfully, Miami developed Nik Needham into a spot starter caliber player, and there’s still room to grow for him.

But that’s not enough to hold them over. Signing Aqib Talib is not likely to happen (though I would do it if the price is right), and there’s no way to know if Cordrea Tankersley will stay on the team over some of Flores’ hand-picked youngsters like Ken Webster or Steven Parker. Either way, the dropoff is significant after Needham.

This is where Wake Forest’s Essang Bassey comes into play.

Now quite frankly, I don’t expect Bassey to make a huge impact right away. His best projection right now is as a slot cornerback, so he’d compete with Jomal Wiltz, unless McCain moves back to the slot. Bassey’s undersized – listed as 5’9″ and 191 pounds – and is best known for his ball skills. He’s a hawk who has a nose for the ball and can read and jump routes. He’s got fluid hips, and can turn into coverage smoothly. Ironically enough, the player that he reminds me of?

Brent Grimes.

His strengths and weaknesses are almost an exact parallel to Grimes. He has incredible ball-tracking skills and his size is a weakness that must be overcome. Agility, off-man coverage skills, footwork, not overly physical. That’s Brent Grimes in a nutshell. Do I expect Bassey to become Grimes? Not at all. Then again, no one expected Grimes to become who he ultimately became. If Bassey gets close to Grimes, without the extracurriculars that came with him, he could easily be the steal of the draft.

  • Byron Jones
  • Nik Needham
  • Essang Bassey
  • Jomal Wiltz
  • Steven Parker
  • Eric Rowe (CB/S)
  • Bobby McCain (CB/S)
  • *Xavien Howard

Round 5, 144th Overall – Minnesota WR Tyler Johnson

This is going to be one of those best player available situations. Truthfully, Miami doesn’t need anymore wide receivers. There are already so many bodies at that position – good ones – that adding more just seems wasteful. However, when BPA becomes the goal, you take talent no matter what position they play.

Enter Tyler Johnson out of Minnesota. He’s not a physical stud, but he doesn’t need to be. Preston Williams, DeVante Parker and – to some extent – Mike Gesicki are the big-bodied wide receivers. What Johnson brings to the table is ridiculous footwork, route-running, releases, hands, and a little speed to boot.

Johnson’s lack of physicality is his one main weakness. But if corners can’t stay with you, then that makes up for it somewhat. Truly, he’s the type of wide receiver that accurate, anticipatory quarterbacks will love.

Sound like anyone?

Now, Johnson will have a battle to make the roster. Wide receiver is the deepest position Miami has by far. His best chance is to beat out Isaiah Ford, who came on strong after injuries to the WR corps made his presence necessary. I believe that Johnson will ultimately end up on the practice squad, so he doesn’t make the 53-man roster list. But if something happens, and Albert Wilson gets released or someone gets hurt, Johnson will get first dibs.

  • DeVante Parker
  • Preston Williams
  • Albert Wilson
  • Jakeem Grant
  • Allen Hurns
  • Isaiah Ford

Round 5, 147th Overall – Maryland Safety Antoine Brooks Jr.

True, there’s a logjam at safety already with Eric Rowe’s emergence and Bobby McCain’s position transition. But that doesn’t mean it’s a wise idea to just stand pat and not look for some potential elsewhere. Antoine Brooks Jr. is most effective in the box and making plays in the backfield. Essentially, he does what Reshad Jones does best.

It’s unlikely Brooks will make an immediate impact on defense. Again, Rowe and the (hopefully) returning Walt Aikens will be called upon first in case of an injury. But one thing that he will absolutely do is be a special teams star.

What Brooks is not good at is defending against deep routes, which limits him somewhat. He is an attacking safety/nickel package player through and through. But if there’s any truth to the idea that Reshad Jones will be on his way out – next season if nothing else – then it’s crucial that the Dolphins find someone who can potentially mimic his skillset. Brooks will get his chance, but more likely on the practice squad.

  • Reshad Jones
  • Walt Aikens
  • Bobby McCain (CB/S)
  • Eric Rowe (CB/S) (35 players)

Round 6, 165th Overall – Miami EDGE Jonathan Garvin

It’s only fitting that at least one Miami Hurricane makes it in here. Jonathan Garvin has a lot of length who can essentially play the role that William Hayes did during his brief Dolphins tenure. He doesn’t possess an incredible pass-rushing burst the way that K’Lavon Chaisson does, but he can set the edge and stop the run like nobody’s business.

That type of ability is precisely what the coaching staff wants in their edge players. What makes him intriguing is that there’s also still room for him to grow as a pass rusher. He has the potential to become an incredibly balanced, all-around player on defense.

Of course, by this point in the draft, every player is a project player. Garvin has potential to be drawn out, but he needs a lot of coaching. And he’ll have competition for a spot on the roster, especially from more established players like Taco Charlton. He does have the advantage of being able to stop the run, but there are other young players also looking to make the team.

Special teams performance will play a role in Garvin’s chances to make the roster, and ultimately I believe he’ll make it over the likes of Avery Moss or Jonathan Ledbetter. But if he doesn’t, then there’s a nice warm spot on the practice squad waiting for him to make the team. That is, of course, assuming he doesn’t get snagged by another team first.

  • Yannick Ngakoue
  • K’Lavon Chaisson
  • Taco Charlton
  • Charles Harris
  • Jonathan Garvin

Round 6, 177th Overall – Appalachian State RB Darrynton Evans

Perhaps the most intriguing thing about Darrynton Evans is just how productive he’s been throughout his college career. Similar to Myles Gaskin a year prior, his abilities aren’t wow worthy but he’s been consistently good at racking up numbers.

He was one of the most explosive running backs in college football in 2019, and has a certain amount of balance to his game that allows him to do a little of everything. Once again, versatility is a big deal for the Dolphins, so that’s a point in Evans’ favor.

He’ll have a tough time making the roster unless he really hits the ground running during the offseason. Special teams will be his best bet to make it since Swift will firmly hold the starting job with Laird, Ballage and Gaskin having seniority on him. It’s all about adding competition this late in the draft.

  • D’Andre Swift
  • Patrick Laird
  • Kalen Ballage
  • Myles Gaskin
  • Chandler Cox

Round 7, 223rd Overall – Baylor EDGE James Lynch

And here we have Mr. Irrelevant, the final pick of the entire draft goes to the Dolphins. It’s yet another edge rusher as Miami continues searching for a way to generate a pass rush after their worst season doing it in recent memory. Lynch is Baylor’s all-time leader in sacks with 22, which makes it somewhat surprising he lasted this long. Matt Miller has Lynch going to the Cowboys as early as the second round in his mock draft.

Lynch has a high motor and he seems to have a knack for blocking kicks. That’s a big play that’s been missed since Vincent Taylor was released. Perhaps Lynch will bring that back considering how often he did it in college.

The biggest issue with Lynch is that his physical qualities don’t make you say wow anywhere across the board. Average length, average athleticism, average everything. He needs to be developed by a strong coaching staff if he’s going to find success in the NFL. Effort alone helped him find the success he did have at Baylor.

Who knows? Maybe that effort will be enough to make him shine in training camp. But more than likely, he’ll land on the practice squad.

  • Yannick Ngakoue
  • K’Lavon Chaisson
  • Taco Charlton
  • Charles Harris
  • Jonathan Garvin

And that concludes the second version of my Miami Dolphins offseason plan. Not listed here are the members of the defensive tackle and tight end units, but those will simply have everyone you’re used to, with the exception of Gerald Willis getting the call up to the 53-man roster and joining the DT rotation.

Obviously, there will be acorns found after the draft is over. Only the Dolphins know who they really have their eye on. But follow the plan I’ve laid out, and they’ll be competing in the playoffs in no time. At least, one can only hope that’s the case.

Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for six years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung