Launching Pad: Bam’s Barriers, Winslow’s Return, Herro’s Happy Feet

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 14-5 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 109.5 (114.3)

• Defensive Rating: 103.5 (107.0)

• Net Rating: plus-6.0 (plus-7.3)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.1 (59.6)

• Pace: 101.1 (99.8)

• Time of Possession: 14.5 seconds (14.7)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk

• Minutes: 10

• Offensive Rating: 160.0

• Defensive Rating: 109.5

• Net Rating: plus-50.5

• True-Shooting Percentage: 77.2

• Pace: 98.73

The Big Number: 31.1

You can bank on three things in this thing called life: death, taxes, and the Heat having one of the best defenses in the league.

As of today, the Heat rank 7th in defensive rating. They’ve done so behind a “drop” scheme that has effectively kept opponents out of the paint (7th fewest rim attempts allowed). On the other hand, they’ve also bled three-point attempts, particularly above the break. Opponents are attempting nearly 28 above-the-break triples per game, the 6th most in the league.

The good news: teams are only converting 31.1 percent of those looks, a number that only ranks behind the Chicago Bulls (31.0) and the Denver Nuggets (30.5).

That specific portion of the Heat’s defense will be tested this week with match-ups against the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, and the Washington Wizards. All three squads have pull-up artists that can make the Heat pay from deep if the ball pressure isn’t there.

Weekly Trends

1. Bam’s half-court struggles

We talked about Miami’s half-court offense in last week’s edition, but mostly within the context of their loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. The general verdict was that the Heat needed more on-ball juice from the perimeter, and there needed to be some sort of plan for Bam Adebayo.

It’s safe to say we got a glimpse of that in Sunday’s match-up against the Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets bigs, as they generally do against non-shooters, basically ignored Adebayo in the half-court. Their “one-man zone” kept Jarrett Allen or DeAndre Jordan at the basket while Adebayo operated from the perimeter.

Just look at the contrast between how Adebayo guards Jordan, and how that flips on the other end.

 

 

For the most part, the results weren’t great. Adebayo missed some jumpers, forced some passes, and ultimately looked flustered. The fact that he finished with 17 & 16 is a testament to his never-ending motor.

There’s some work to be done here. A bunch of this rides on Adebayo and his confidence. He needs to become respected as an on-ball threat. That won’t come without reps.

If teams are going to instruct their centers to basically ignore him outside of the paint, he needs to do one of two things for himself. Either he has to pull the trigger on more mid-range attempts (he’s 15-of-31 on shots between 10-19 feet), or he has to use the runway teams are giving him to explode to the basket.

More of that, please.

The Heat also need to also need to make sure they’re putting Adebayo in positions to succeed when teams employ that strategy. If they aren’t going to break from their handoff counters (which isn’t a bad thing), we’re going to need to see more of the Tyler Herro-Adebayo pairing. Herro is the best pull-up shooter the Heat have, and will be able make aggressive “drop” defenses pay if they play with a huge cushion.

2. Justise Winslow’s return

Miami’s favorite enigma returned to action on Wednesday against the Houston Rockets. His minutes haven’t exactly been limited since he’s been back (30.3), but Erik Spoelstra has notably (and, to this point, correctly) decided to bring Winslow off the bench.

Nothing from Winslow’s three-game stint should be surprising. The playmaking flashes have still been there:

 

 

He’s defended pretty well when he’s been on the perimeter. His 4th quarter defense against Spencer Dinwiddie on Sunday was particularly impressive. Winslow remains quite good at wiggling through screens and staying connected to ball handlers.

On the flip side, Winslow hasn’t had much success at all as a scorer. He’s hit half of his shots at the rim (4-of-8) and has been a disaster outside of the paint. The three-point shot isn’t just off right now; it looks different.

I’m no shot doctor, but it seems like he’s tinkered with his release point in an effort to speed things up. It may very well pay off in the long run, but it’s hard not to cringe at stuff like this:

 

 

Winslow coming off the bench has also meant playing a ton of minutes at the 4 defensively. It … hasn’t looked great. Winslow at the 4 should be complemented by a shift towards switching. Instead, the Heat have mostly elected to maintain their “drop” principles, leading to some pretty ugly miscommunications.

Time will heal some of those wounds. As ugly as it’s been for Winslow at times, the Heat have still been much better with him on the court since he’s returned. The offense plays faster and shoots better from the field. The defense is stingier and has a higher success rate ending possessions.

It’s okay to be concerned with Winslow’s half-court fit, but just remember there’s a multi-year sample at play with the Heat outscoring their opponents with Winslow on the floor.

Be patient.

3. The balance of Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro was rightfully dubbed with the “knockdown shooter” rep coming out of Kentucky. Some of us [coughs] questioned what else brought to the table, and he’s mostly shut some of us [clears throat] up with plus-passing feel and a growing catalog of get-out-of-my-way contested rebounds.

Still, the shooting is the calling card. Herro’s numbers are almost unprecedented for a rookie. They include, but are not limited to:

-a 40.4 percent from three on over five attempts

-a 1.57 (!!!) point per possession clip on spot-ups (99th percentile, via Synergy)

-an 82.7 adjusted field goal percentage on spot-ups

-a 1.83 point per possession clip on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (98th percentile)

Herro isn’t just a great shooter; he’s (statistically) on the path to become a true defense shifter in that regard. It’s easy to be impressed by his touch, but his footwork (settle down, Mr. Ryan) is what really steals the show when you watch. It doesn’t take much time or effort for him to set up shop, and that allows him to flow into pull-ups or side-step attempts easier than most.

 

 

Whew.

Bonus: Kelly Olynyk has found his groove

If you thought a six-minute outing against the Nets would prevent me from talking about Kelly Olynyk, you are sadly mistaken.

(His section was replaced by Herro’s, so I guess you weren’t that mistaken.)

Olynyk struggled to adjust to Miami’s screen-heavy offense in the early goings of the season. Over the past week or so, he’s found ways to inject his brand of spontaneity. The pitch-and-go chemistry with Winslow has picked up where it left off. He’s drilling above-the-break threes. Heck, his willingness to take them is a breath of fresh air in comparison to Miami’s starting center.

His play-style is plodding and weird. It never looks like it’s supposed to work, but it just … does?

 

 

The Heat have been nearly 19 points per 100 possessions better with Olynyk on the floor over their last five games. It’s safe to say he’s back in the flow of things.

Set Play of the Week

Draggin’ along

If you paid any attention to the Heat this preseason, you would’ve immediately picked up on their increased frequency of pick-and-rolls featuring two screeners. “Double Drag” is a common action across the league; Heat fans in particular should remember Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks doing whatever they wanted out of it last season.

The fundamental purpose of Double Drag is to strain multiple defenders at once. Against (what’s left of) the Golden State Warriors, the Heat added some decoy action to further scramble them.

The possession begins with Winslow bringing the ball up the floor. Goran Dragic executes an Iverson cut (running off two staggered screens) before receiving a pass on the right wing. The drag screen action then begins with Herro and Chris Silva as screeners.

The starting position of the pick-and-roll is already unusual; the added wrinkle of a spacer (Herro) slipping the screen is something that Steve Kerr would specifically appreciate.

The Warriors end up committing two to the ball, leaving Herro open in the corner. Dragic finds Hero, who caps off the possession with a pump fake, a side-step, and a rainbow.

Three Yards Per Carry College QB TRACKER

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December 1st, 2019

Tua Tagovailoa vs Mississippi State (Out for the Season)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r-mnF6Ovqc

Stats:

Justin Herbert vs Oregon State

Stats:

Jordan Love vs New Mexico

Stats:

Jake Fromm vs Georgia Tech

Stats:

Joe Burrow vs Texas A&M

 

Stats:

Jalen Hurts vs Oklahoma State

 

Stats:

Jacob Eason vs Washington State

Stats:

All stats were from https://www.sports-reference.com/

 

Click HERE to listen to the latest episode of  3 Yards Per Carry.

 

DeVante Parker took flight for seven catches for 159 yards against the Eagles. (Tony Capobianco for Five Reasons Sports)

Pressure Point: DeVante Parker finally takes off for Dolphins

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Welcome to Pressure Point by Craig Davis, commentary and analysis from a longtime observer and reporter of the South Florida sports scene and its teams.

MIAMI GARDENS – The most confusing of Dolphins seasons reached a new level of mystifying Sunday.

They not only pulled off the cleverest trick play of the year, the left-for-dead Dolphins came back from a two-touchdown deficit in the second half to defeat an Eagles team vying for the lead in its division 37-31 at Hard Rock Stadium.

Maybe it had something to do with wearing those throwback uniforms to their glory years.

Or maybe they have something special in coach Brian Flores, who has no hesitation about trying all sorts of daring do, whether an onside kick to open the second half (unsuccessful) or any fourth down situation at any time (three for three Sunday).

Fitzpatrick, Parker Gesicki tank proof as Dolphins stun Eagles

Or that whacky set piece by the field-goal unit, which had players spread wide near both sidelines with only punter/holder Matt Haack and center Daniel Kilgore in the middle of the field. Haack took the snap, darted to his left and Frisbee-tossed a pass to kicker Frank Sanders, who had slipped undetected into the end zone.

It was not only a forehead-slapping touchdown, it was the second Dolphins TD pass on fourth down in the first half.

DeVante Parker takes flight

Earlier, DeVante Parker’s twisting, high-wire grab and tightrope walk along the sideline for a 43-yard touchdown on fourth-and-4 provided a short-lived highlight reel topper for the season.

The punter passing to the kicker for a touchdown was certainly a talker. It was a delight to witness, though a case could be made for saving such ingenuity for when the Dolphins have progressed beyond a sideshow.

But it was Parker who had the most to do with this improbable comeback win.

Miami’s No. 1 pick in 2014 (No. 14 overall) who was written off as a bust awhile ago, is finally playing as originally envisioned in his fifth season. Parker’s 65th NFL game was his most impressive: seven catches (on 10 targets) for 159 yards and two touchdowns.

He did it by using his lanky 6-3 frame and athleticism to get above and beyond defenders, frequently victimizing Eagles 5-11 cornerback Ronald Darby.

He also went airborne for a 42-yard reception on a third-and-13 toss from Ryan Fitzpatrick and for a 17-yard touchdown catch in the third quarter that got the comeback started.

“If I’m not getting it, nobody else is getting it. That’s the way I feel,” Parker said of his mindset on the 50-50 balls that are up for grabs.

Quieting critics, vocal visiting crowd

He also said he was motivated by “the fact that they had more fans than us [in the crowd Sunday], it kind of made me mad.”

It seemed every time a big catch was needed, Parker was there to make it.

There was a 34-yard reception on third down that led to the go-ahead touchdown. Parker converted another fourth down with an 8-yard grab to keep alive the drive to the clinching field goal.

“He’s been playing great all year. I’m really happy for him because he’s taken a lot of criticism that he didn’t deserve in the past,” said second-year tight end Mike Gesicki, another high draft pick that is quieting critics of his early work.

Gesicki had his second TD catch in two weeks – a Parker-like leap in the end zone – and finished with five catches for 79 yards.

Later, when Sanders kicked the 51-yard field goal in the waning minutes that effectively sealed the win, the bigger picture of this season became fuzzier than ever – that is, where this leaves the 3-9 Dolphins in relation to the real objective, which is to attain the highest draft pick they can.

With games remaining against a downtrodden trio of Jets, Giants and Bengals, it isn’t a stretch that a Dolphins team built to lose could end up with six wins.

Draft hopes in peril

That would certainly put the choicest picks of the 2020 draft out of Miami’s reach. Which would seem like whitewash all over the blueprint of tearing down the roster to build it back up.

No doubt many players on this roster won’t remain when the Dolphins are gearing up to win – Parker and Gesicki would now appear to be among those with a future on the team.

But just maybe something else of significance is already being mined from this seeming lost season.

“I think there’s been a lot of growth over the course of the season. I think that’s something that we struggled with and we talked – early in the season we’ve talked about building, improving on a week-to-week basis, really, in all areas. I think it showed this afternoon,” Flores said.

“It’s a team of fighters. This is – we compete. I think that’s something that we talk about day after day after day. … really, if you want to play in this league at a good level against good competition like we had out there today, that’s what you need.”

On this day of surprises and sleight of hand, that’s exactly what they demonstrated.

Please check out the Five Reasons Sports Network channel on YouTube for videos on a variety of South Florida sports topics.

GUTS CHECK: Recent Success, The Next 10, Spurs Trades, Sixers reaction

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won vs Cleveland 124-100
  • Won at Chicago 116-108
  • Lost at Philadelphia 113-86
  • Won vs Charlotte 117-100

Reflection Eternal

The week of Thanksgiving brings about a time for reflection of course.

Back on November 12th, the Heat returned home to face the Pistons after most recently losing in Los Angeles to move to 6-3 on the season. Despite losing 2 out of 3 on that west coast swing I talked about how the next 7-game stretch provided opportunity for the Heat to take off.

The goal was to go 6-1 in the next 7 games. Fast forward to today, and they did just that. The Heat knocked off the Hornets last night in impressive fashion to move to 12-4 on the season. 7-0 at home.

This is how I approach each season. Break it up into chunks. Especially with a team full of young players finding their way in new roles.

Consider the last two weeks of Miami Heat basketball a success. Short term mission accomplished.

It’s okay to be happy about where we are at this point of the season. Complaining is merely optional.

The Next 10

The Heat’s next 10 games culminate on the road in Dallas on December 14th. The significance of the timing to follow is that players signed last summer in 2019 free agency will be eligible to be traded on December 15th.

This also will mark the Heat surpassing the first 25 games of the season, with that being a magic number for the front office as it evaluates the roster. The 25 mark is intended to represent the first deep dive into viable trade scenarios. Which I have been told was the plan in place all along.

Side note: Heat will explore Demar Derozan and LaMarcus Aldridge if the Spurs press the eject button on this season.

Riley has pursued both in the past and the fact that many trade packages being floated could/would preserve 2021 flexibility makes for particularly intriguing short term options. Issue will be cost. Riley has been especially fond of Aldridge since his Blazer days.

However, I wouldn’t even rule out consideration being made to parting with Winslow if it meant they could shed Dion Waiters and James Johnson in the process. Just my 2 pennies. However, I think they rather see Winslow, Butler and Adebayo play together for an extended stretch before making any rash decisions.

Anyway, let’s look at the next 10 games in a snapshot:

Wed, 11/27 at Rockets

Fri, 11/29 vs Warriors

Sun, 12/1 at Nets

Tue, 12/3 at Raptors

Wed, 12/4 at Celtics

Fri, 12/6 vs Wizards

Sun, 12/8 vs Bulls

12/10 vs Hawks

12/13 vs Lakers

12/14 at Mavericks

Coach Spo talked about finding out what the team was made of versus Philadelphia (more on that in a second) but truthfully this next 10 games will tell us infinitely more.

The goal for this stretch?

7-3 and you consider it a resounding success. 6-4 is probably the realistic target. 6-4 or better would be enough to continue to approach any roster shakeup with caution. You probably even take 5-5 in the grand scheme. But at that point you start to explore potential upgrades, particularly buy low candidates. Cough LMA/Demar cough, cough.

4 of the next 5 games on the road, 3 against East playoff teams (plus 1 against a team that owes us an ass beating) makes the most immediate portion of our next 10 games the most daunting.

Got Guts?

In closing, what in the hell happened from Heat Nation on Saturday and Sunday after that Sixers loss?

Get a grip. It’s one game.

I’ve seen firm declarations about Philly’s size and the Heat’s matchup issues. I understand the potential challenges, but it’s November. We did not get any favors from the schedule Gods and were overdue for a bad shooting night.

Relax.

Josh Richardson went crazy, that isn’t happening over the course of a playoff series. If it does, that would be Hornets Jamal Mashburn all over again wouldn’t it? Gross to ponder. Luckily, Jimmy Butler isn’t Eddie Jones.

I think we will be surprised at how all of these perceived “mismatches” look when the teams meet again. Adjustments will be made. Despite what you may read on social media, Bam Adebayo can combat Joel Embiid playing him for the pass without turning into Brook Lopez.

Also, Justise Winslow is needed against a team like Philadelphia more than any other matchup.

Speaking of Justise, it sounds like #JustiseBetter now health wise. Hopefully we see him play in his hometown of Houston, TX on Wednesday.

 

Where do the Miami Hurricanes go from here?

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Losing to FIU on the grounds of the old Orange Bowl may be as low as the Miami Hurricanes have felt since closing that iconic stadium with a 48-0 loss to Virginia a decade ago.

As for FIU, head coach Butch Davis said on Monday during a pep rally in the heart of the student union that the win was “clearly one of the top five things I’ve ever been involved in.” This is the guy who was on Jimmy Johnson’s staff when the Hurricanes was the team of the 80’s and then returned to rebuild that program in the mid 90’s towards becoming arguably the greatest team in college football history.

The Hurricanes have not been the same since and are still searching for a way back to prominence. Miami has numerous opportunities to bring back Butch and potentially return to their rightful place but opted with Randy Shannon, Al Golden, and Mark Richt. It’s too late to bring Davis back now.

By the time Richt retired in 2018, defensive coordinator Manny Diaz was about to be introduced as the new head coach of the Temple Owls. Miami scooped Diaz back up to make him the new head coach. Now sitting at 6-5, fans already have buyer’s remorse.

Now the Hurricanes have a legitimate rival in FIU. Even though the two teams are not currently scheduled to play again (which should change, by the way) Diaz and Davis will be heavy competitors in recruiting. FIU students and alumni have newfound pride in their team and will soon start to support them over their first love. The term “University of Coral Gables” will be used against the Hurricanes as an elitist label as FIU, the lone public school in town with a Division 1 football team, will label itself as the real University of Miami.

No new head coach can instantly fix a program that lives off the past and local talent. They are known as the school that invented swagger but have been blinded by their arrogance all season.

“Quite simply, we’re a football team that chooses when our best is required,” Diaz said during Monday’s press conference. “I’ve got to do a much better job with that every day.”

Diaz is from Miami and takes pride in the program. It falls on him to rebuild it because nobody else will. However the fact that he has lost every game coming off a bye this season is enough of a reason to want him fired, regardless how costly that move is in college sports. He’s hoping this serves as a lesson to the team that is still young.

“It’s especially embarrassing that it happened to FIU, but in life, until you learn a lesson, you’re going to face the same lesson over and over again,” Diaz said. “I think that this was obviously the most harsh lesson that we can learn.

“In the games that we’ve won, if we can understand how to be the same team every week and to give our opponents the respect they deserve and to prepare in a manner that suggests that we’re giving our opponents the respect they deserve, if we can solve this obstacle, then we have a chance to be a pretty good [team]. It shouldn’t have gotten this far. This is something that I should have solved a lot sooner, but when you step back and look back at the film, I think the answer is obvious.”

If FIU loses to Marshall and Miami loses to Duke they will finish the season at 6-6. They might as well play each other in a bowl game in Boca Raton. It seems unlikely and the Hurricanes should finish the regular season 7-5 but only because the Blue Devils enter the final week at 4-7.

The real fun may begin in December if ESPN’s bowl projections hold. As of this past Sunday. Kyle Bonagura has Florida Atlantic playing Florida State in the Walk-On’s Independence Bowl and Miami playing Central Florida in the Military Bowl. This could shape up as Floridian football armageddon should these matchups come to fruition.

It’s one thing to have Miami lose to FIU but to finish the season with a loss to UCF may make Diaz’s head coaching tenure unsurvivable.

Launching Pad: Half-Court Hiccups, Silva Slips, Duncan Decision

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 11-4 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 108.2 (110.1)

• Defensive Rating: 102.5 (107.7)

• Net Rating: plus-5.7 (plus-2.4)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.0 (60.4)

• Pace: 101.46 (99.0)

• Time of Possession: 14.4 seconds (15.0)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Chris Silva, Kelly Olynyk

• Minutes: 12

• Offensive Rating: 116.7

• Defensive Rating: 75.0

• Net Rating: plus-41.7

• True-Shooting Percentage: 61.2

• Pace: 92.41

The Big Number: 1.04

I’m here to make the case that the Heat are, at least statistically, the weirdest offensive team in the league. They’re insanely efficient, leading the NBA in true-shooting percentage. They’re also dead-last in turnover rate, giving it up on nearly 19 percent of their possessions. We’ll get into the nuts and bolts of their half-court offense shortly, but they’ve scored at the 7th best per-possession rate in the league.

If it were even possible, the Heat are even more confusing as a transition team. Despite ranking 12th in transition efficiency (110.6 points per 100 transition opportunities), they are the worst team in the NBA in converting buckets after turnovers. Their 1.04 point-per-possession mark is well below the 29th ranked Portland Trail Blazers (1.10).

You would think that kind of thing will regress positively as the year goes on, but it’s hard to put anything past this offense.

Weekly Trends

1. The Heat’s half-court elephant

Before I really dig in here, let me lay out the obvious caveats that have and will be ignored on Twitter.

Yes, the Miami Heat are really good, and have performed as an upper-echelon team in the East to this point.

Regular season games can inform, but it would be malpractice to overreact to one (1) game, particularly one on the road, and especially one on the road after playing less than 24 hours beforehand.

The Heat have been without Justise Winslow, who is, conservatively, their third best player. His versatility on both ends of the floor unlock a lot of what the Heat want to accomplish. His absence hurts in high-leverage match-ups.

Now, with that being said …

[takes a deep breath]

The Philadelphia Sixers showed just how far away the Heat are from being true contenders in the East on Saturday night.

It isn’t so much about the score, though a 113-86 drubbing doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence. There was some randomness at play that made the result look much worse than it was. For instance, the trio of Robinson, Nunn, and Meyers Leonard went a combined 0-of-9 from three. Most of those shots were wide open.

The process was worrisome, though. More specifically: the Heat have been able to flow with a cut-heavy, pass-happy half-court offense that just doesn’t work against teams as lengthy as Philadelphia. The Heat have already struggled with turnovers. When you have Joel Embiid playing eight or so feet off of Bam Adebayo as he operates from the elbow, life becomes much harder.

There’s nothing wrong with an egalitarian approach offensively. There’s value in empowering everyone, and Jimmy Butler has spearheaded that on and off the floor. I do think, however, it’s worth exploring just how much of that approach comes out of necessity.

The Heat’s most frequent pick-and-roll ball-handlers (passes excluded) — Goran Dragic, Nunn, and Butler – have generated 202 points on 240 possessions (0.841 points per possession). That number is simultaneously being brought down by Butler’s rough start (0.629 PPP) and held together by Nunn shooting 50 percent in those situations.

The Heat needed Butler to lead the charge on Saturday, and he couldn’t. Bad nights happen, so it shouldn’t be some sort of huge indictment. But this is the kind of match-up that validates Trade Machine Truthers; the Heat still appear to be a creator short. Winslow’s return will help, but Nunn may be the Heat’s best secondary shot creator. That .. isn’t a great sign through the lens of contention.

2. Catch ’em slippin’

Chris Silva has become a bit of a cult hero. His per-game numbers don’t jump off the page, but it’s hard not to like him when you pay attention. He’s a Dirty Work All-Star, doing his damage as an offensive rebounder and rim challenger.

(He hacks a ton — averaging 9.5 fouls per 36 minutes. That needs to be cleaned up soon.)

Silva sets good screens off the ball, but opts for slipping in pick-and-roll. He changes direction incredibly well, and has a good feel for defensive gaps. Once he senses a crease, he finds the pocket and dives right into it.

 

 

Silva has only registered seven possessions as the roller in pick-and-roll, via Synergy, but has already racked up 13 points. He’s a perfect 5-of-5 from the field as the roll-man, and four of those come via slips.

I’m all for calling him The Big Slipper — a play off of Wilt Chamberlain’s “Big Dipper” moniker.

3. Duncan Robinson’s starting claim

I’ve hinted at it before, let’s get definitive: Duncan Robinson deserves a full-time starting spot.

Robinson’s primary value comes as a spacer. He’s drilling 40.2 percent of his threes on hefty volume (6.5 attempts). Only 10 other players are shooting at least 40 percent on six or more attempts. Robinson is elite as a stand-still threat, but throws defenses for a loop with his off-ball movement. Whether he’s coming off screens or reading ball-handlers, Robinson bends defenses with his ability to relocate.

 

 

As of now, Robinson is still holding his weight defensively. He keeps his head on a swivel and mostly rotates on time. We’ve seen some nice strip/block flashes in transition, which … yeah, I didn’t really see those coming based on what he showed last season.

Robinson’s name appears in three of the Heat’s top five lineups that have been used this season, which is impressive considering that excludes the current starting lineup (plus-13.6). As long as the Heat aren’t blitzed defensively with him on the floor, there’s really no reason to pull him from the lineup.

Set Play of the Week

Going against the grain

Defending shooters in today’s NBA is tough enough. When coaches employ them as screeners (hello, Steve Kerr), defenses are forced into uncomfortable decisions. Fight over? Switch? Pray?

As covered in last week’s edition, the Heat have been getting mileage out of looping their shooters around in hopes of causing confusion. It’s what makes this play even more notable.

 

 

Above, Robinson kicks off the action by wrapping around Tyler Herro. The next option, assuming a switch comes, is for Robinson to screen for Herro before he flares out behind Silva. Fortunately for the Heat, switch doesn’t come.

Robinson’s defender stays attached, which would be fine if Robinson wasn’t now three feet from the rim. Robinson seals him off; Dragic delivers the pass, and the ball goes through the hoop.

It was one of many, many, many examples of the Bulls being exploited defensively. It’s also a window into how much of a pain it is to track shooters in tight spaces.

Canes Collapse Under Weight of Own Ineptitude

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For a program that has chronically underachieved for more than 15 years, it is difficult to categorize something as “rock bottom.” There are so many candidates:

  • Closing out the Orange Bowl with a 48-0 loss.
  • Getting destroyed by Cincinnati on National TV.
  • Losing to Clemson 58-0.
  • Dropping 7 straight to FSU.

Fans of a program with that list of “accomplishments” should not throw the term “rock bottom” around lightly. Particularly when that list is balanced out with a single ACC Coastal title.

And yet it is impossible to argue that the Canes didn’t bottom out on Saturday. Getting beat in an inner city game that should have been a walk in the park is bad enough. That FIU is actually bad this year, even in context, and didn’t play particularly well (they had 14 penalties for 126 yards), makes this even more galling.  To quote Rocky IV, “What started as a joke has turned out to be a disaster.”

I fully acknowledge the danger of quoting Rocky IV because the next trick for Gimmick U might be to head off to the Siberian wilderness and chop wood. What else is left after Turnover Chains, Touchdown Rings, mock wrestling, catchy hashtags, and dancing when down 13 in the 3rd quarter?

 

 

They could actually do football things like switch tempos, game plan, adjust to what the opponents are doing, play smart, use timeouts correctly, and prepare in bye weeks…but that would be conventional. This staff thinks outside the box. They announced the “The New Miami” with a lot of bluster. They knew what was wrong and they could fix it.

The head coach constantly references analytics. The offensive coordinator runs all sorts of misdirection and keeps trying to force plays to the short side of the field. The defensive coordinator repeatedly tries to force the issue when discretion is often advised. Why adjust to the opponent when you’re smarter than them?

The problem? It’s all fraudulent spin. I don’t need the head coach to reference analytics and his own genius when he sees his team down by 16 with 24 minutes left in the game and has no issue with 7 minutes and 10 seconds running off the clock to kick a FG.

The Canes lost the game while driving for a score. That’s the level of ineptitude they reached. They used 30% of the remaining clock to get 3 points. And did so with no urgency, calmly, oblivious to their own incompetence. Do you know how hard it is to have a scoring drive in the 3rd quarter that reduces your win probability by more than 13%?

What we’ve been served is a heaping pile of spin. The problem with spin is that eventually reality cannot be ignored. So, while Diaz might fancy himself an analytics guru, and know that seemingly counter-intuitive things like going for 2 after scoring a TD that cuts the lead from 14 to 8 in the 4th quarter makes statistical sense, the central issue is that he repeatedly finds himself down in the 4th quarter necessitating the execution of the “smart” strategy.

And that’s the problem with outside the box thinking. The box exists for a reason. You have to master the box, become an expert at the box, and then eventually look for inefficiencies within the box to violate the box and gain an advantage.

We experience this in our daily life. You have a daily commute which requires a left turn. And after a few weeks of waiting multiple lights to be able to make that left turn, you realize that it’s actually faster to go an extra block and make 3 right turns in this specific instance. So you do that, and shave some time off your commute. If everyone did that, it would no longer be faster, but you’re taking advantage of an inefficiency. You, of course, would never default to taking 3 right turns instead of a left at every intersection where you needed to go left. It was only after careful observation and analysis that you chose to make 3 right turns, in this specific instance.

This staff is making 3 right turns at every intersection, and talking about how smart they are while we collectively scream at them to make a left turn. Instead of actually being smart, they are doing things they think smart people do.

They did none of the work, instead showing up with the Miami Swagger, but without any of the substance. Swagger was earned in the past through hard work and results. Miami was great, and then celebrated their greatness. Conceited with results is swagger. Conceited while losing to FIU is ignominious. 

FIU came to win this game. They crowded the middle to take away RPO passes. They flopped and faked injuries to take away rhythm and time. They threw short passes to negate the pass rush. They held ridiculously and dared the refs to call it. They used every trick in the book.

FIU wide receiver Tony Gaiter IV led the team with 82 yards on six receptions and scored the second touchdown of the game.

But they exploited a passive and unprepared Miami coaching staff. They were tipping their hand, daring the Canes to run over them in the first half, with knowledge that the Hurricanes would force the pass. They were faking injuries, telling the Canes to speed up the tempo, tipping their hand that they could not handle tempo, yet Miami played slow. The Canes coaches knew better.

Except they don’t. After the game, Manny Diaz compared these Canes to the current number one team in the nation. In 2017, LSU lost to Troy at home. Diaz is very familiar with that LSU team, having helped kick-start their Renaissance by not getting his defense ready to start the 2018 season in a blowout loss to LSU. But that analogy, much like everything that has happened since Diaz introduced us to The New Miami, does not hold up to any scrutiny.

2017 LSU went 9-3 (eventually losing the Citrus Bowl to Notre Dame). Their other losses were to Mississippi State and Alabama. They won multiple games against ranked teams that year. Troy was also a 10-win team in that regular season (and got to 11 in their bowl game). LSU losing to Troy that year was a case of a good team taking a solid team lightly and blowing a game because of it.

That’s not what the Miami-FIU game was. FIU came in with 5 wins, recently losing to FAU by 30. The Canes, meanwhile, have had ridiculously horrible performances against North Carolina, Central Michigan (in a win), Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and now FIU. They have come out of bye weeks being outscored 61-3 to start games by UNC, VT, and FIU. Miami is not a good team that played a bad game. The Canes are an awful team that played another bad game in a season of bad games and has systemic issues that are not analogous to anything that LSU was going through in 2017.

The only way forward with this staff is for the delusions of grandeur to stop. They are not smarter and more advanced. They started this tenure focusing on all the wrong things because they did not understand the enormity of the task in front of them, the importance of the work.

Many will want to clean house now:

If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well
It were done quickly

There is no indication that the administration is thinking that way. But what is necessary is a full reset, new staff or not. Stop focusing on style, and focus on substance. Focus on excellence, and not excuse making. Stop with empty platitudes and make real changes in everything related to the approach to building this program. The program is rotten from the inside, and not a few tweaks, or even a single coordinator change, away from achieving greatness.

The LSU team that Diaz so flippantly referenced to deflect attention from last night’s debacle? They won the Fiesta Bowl after the 2018 season. How does Miami get from “rock bottom” to winning a NY6 bowl next year? With problem recognition. The staff misidentified the issues with “Old Miami” and created issues where there were none. This was not a complete cultural and competency rebuild when they got here. But it is now. Anything less will result in the continued amplification of the gathering storm clouds threatening to inundate The New Miami and sink the yacht Diaz so confidently rode in on 7 months ago.

 

Photos by Tony Capobianco. Follow Vishnu at @VRP2003. Note: The t-shirt featured above is available for purchase here. 

TEAM – Together. Everyone. Achieves. More. The 19-20 Heat.

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Ever since LeBron spurned Miami for Wasteland – Cleveland, HEAT fans have been desperate for the NEXT move. Even new signings are immediately viewed as “tradeable assets” to acquire the next guy. As children of Riley, we’re born and bred with the mindset of always keeping an eye on the future. We all fall victim to the trade machine. December 15 is practically a holiday on Twitter as we flood our timelines with hypothetical “who says no?” trade scenarios.

 

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Except, this season feels different. This current HEAT roster has quickly captivated the hearts of local fans and the attention of the national media. The energy, the selflessness, the toughness – THIS is what Miami Heat basketball is supposed to look like. For the first time since 2014, HEAT fans are living in the moment. Don’t believe me? Look for yourself….

 

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Not since 2003 have the Miami Heat had such a lovable squad. This is the most cohesive HEAT team I can remember in years! It’s not only that the pieces fit perfectly, it’s the way they play together.

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And that motto we love to throw around that defines our CULTURE – the hardest-working, best conditioned, most professional, unselfish, toughest, meanest, nastiest team in the NBA– is exactly how we would define the 2019-2020 HEAT team. It’s never been more evident than Wednesday night when Duncan “SNIPERSON” displayed his lethal stroke from downtown, draining NINE three pointers against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Every guy on the HEAT bench was on their feet with excitement as the ball went through the net.

What other franchise can take G-League players and turn them into legit NBA rotation pieces or, in the case of Kenrick Nunn, potential stars? Fans can talk themselves into believing they have a chance with any team, but this year, the Eastern Conference is truly up for grabs. And at a time when most HEAT fans are usually banging the table for Riley to work his trade magic, we are instead collectively rooting to see what this group as currently constructed can accomplish in the playoffs.

 

HEAT fans have patiently waited for a team to take the reins and lead the CULTURE into the franchise’s next phase, the A.W. (After Wade) years. And Jimmy Butler is the perfect leader for this franchise at this moment in time.

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And don’t look now, but Chris Silva is making that 30 on his back look more like 40 with his Udonis Haslem-esque warrior mentality. No question, this team is likely another move away from contending for a championship. But our biggest strengths are our depth and team unity. One trade can completely blow that up. We’ve seen what a difference one guy can make (Hey Hassan!) on team morale. Instead, fans are rallying behind a group of guys that are more focused on winning than personal stats. A group of guys that are looking to make plays for their teammates instead of themselves. A group of guys that will scratch and claw their way for every last rebound. And a group of guys that genuinely love playing for each other.

 

That’s the type of Miami Heat team fans will go to battle with 8 days a week!

 

How could we look towards the future, when we’re so in love with the present?

 

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The Mourning Edition: The Ceiling Has Blown Through The Roof

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Welcome to The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The NBA still hasn’t noticed what’s brewing on Biscayne.

Save for the sporadic cursory glances, no one has bothered taking much stock of the new-look Miami Heat. For the select few who have, their opinions on the team that Pat Riley built land somewhere between skepticism and outright pessimism.

Jimmy Butler says he’s as happy as ever after finding a spot that fits his personality. Doubters wonder how long the honeymoon will last.

The stat sheet regards the Heat as all-caps ELITE: tied for fourth in winning percentage, third in net efficiency. Power rankers shrug their shoulders and say, ‘Yeah, but who’ve they played?’

Miami landed eighth on the most ESPN rankings, while Royce Young quipped, “The schedule set them up for a three-game winning streak.”

Grand scheme, sure, the Heat get noting for playing a dominant month of basketball. But why have hoops heads decided this is the one early-season storyline no one needs to trust?

Is it really all because Butler had some messy divorces in his past? What if it just took him a few tries to find his perfect match? If at first you don’t succeed, right?

Remember, the good vibes started long before the win column ballooned.

“I feel that the way they go about everything here is the right way,” Butler said at his introductory press conference. “That’s what I am banking on. That’s why I am here.”

He might be a four-time All-Star now, but he’s also the player who went unranked out of Tomball (Texas) High School, who opened his college career at Tyler Junior College, who wasn’t selected until 30th overall in the 2011 draft (which he now leads in win shares) and who didn’t average double-digit points until his third NBA campaign.

His story of overcoming impossibly long odds is one shared by nearly everyone inside of this organization.

Goran Dragic was a second-round pick in 2008 and didn’t become a full-time starter until his age-26 season. Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Udonis Haslem and Chris Silva were all undrafted. Even head coach Erik Spoelstra is an old video coordinator who worked his way up through the ranks, and despite winning a pair of titles, he still seems underrated.

Even the “blue chips” aren’t what they seem.

Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro were lottery picks, but neither landed in the top 10. Adebayo was recently left off a Team USA team that had trouble attracting and retaining top talents. The Ringer graded the Herro selection as a C and questioned if he’d even stay on the floor. Justise Winslow, the 10th pick in 2015, has critics within the Heat’s own fanbase.

“Everybody is an underdog here,” Butler said at training camp. “If they’re not, they go about it as if they are.”

What if that shared mentality and willingness to work has bonded this locker room tighter than any he’s been involved in? What if he’s found something here that he was missing elsewhere?

Or, and I know this is a novel idea, what if we don’t play armchair psychologist and instead hear Butler express his contentment and just take his word for it until we have a current, valid reason to do otherwise?

His happiness can change everything. It already looks like it has.

He looks completely comfortable in his pass-first, score-when-needed role, and so does everyone else in the offense. This team has the Association’s second-highest assist percentage and no real natural point guard on the roster. Butler’s impact is real, and it’s spectacular, and doubting it only for the fear it might eventually get rocky seems like a miserable way to live.

As for the schedule-obsessed skeptics, good-to-great teams have long established that standing by beating up on bottom-feeders. Last season, the champion Toronto Raptors barely had a winning record against .500-or-better teams (22-20); the 50-win Utah Jazz (20-21) and 49-win Boston Celtics(17-25) were in the red.

Good-to-great clubs handle the teams they should and more or less tread water against anyone else. That’s exactly the model Miami has followed to this point. It has a perfect 7-0 mark against losing clubs—one of only four undefeated records against them—and a 3-3 mark against .500-plus teams, counting wins over Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks and James Harden’s Rockets.

ESPN’s RPI says the Heat have faced the eighth-toughest schedule so far. Why, exactly, is their path behind held against them?

Maybe people are just running out of other reasons to doubt. The absence of a second star seemed worrisome until Bam Adebayo blossomed into that role. The longer guys like Nunn, Herro and Robinson keep rolling, the harder it is to see the rug being pulled out from underneath them.

And let’s not forget, Winslow has barely broken a sweat with this group. If he can find a way to coexist with Butler—at this point, doesn’t Spoelstra deserve the benefit of the doubt?—this team’s potential climbs even higher.

Already, though, the outlook has changed. The Heat had a chance to be pretty good; they’ve made themselves great instead.

“We can’t keep surprising people,” Butler said after the latest win, the team’s third double-digit triumph in a row. “We’re for real. I don’t think anybody wants to play against us, and that’s the way we want to keep it.”

The Heat aren’t going away, regardless if the rest of the hoops world notices or not.

The Miami Beach Bowl is back

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The FIU Golden Panthers are fighting an uphill battle for their sixth win and bowl eligibility. But they got a bowl game coming up against the Miami Hurricanes at the site of the historic but now non-existent Orange Bowl on Saturday.

Marlins Park had the Miami Beach Bowl from 2014-16 and each game came with amazing moments. The first game between Memphis and BYU in double-overtime win by the Tigers and ended in a brawl. The second installment saw Western Kentucky quarterback and former Miami Dolphins practice squad member Brandon Doughty end his collegiate career in his hometown against South Florida and his former coach. The third game ended with the Golden Hurricanes of Tulsa demolishing Central Michigan and finishing the season with a 3,000-yard passer, a pair of 1,000-yard rushers and receivers, something that has never happened in FBS history.

Even though the games were memorable to those who attended, the ratings and attendance numbers were forgettable. The conferences that controlled the bowl game and ESPN (who created bowl games for content purposes) did the Miami Beach Bowl no favors when they held each game on a Monday kicking off at 2 p.m. The game was basically nothing more than a bridge between the noon Sportcenter to Monday Night Countdown. It didn’t matter how few people were at the game.

College football has experimented with holding bowl games in MLB ballparks before and continue to do so. San Francisco, Arizona, Tampa Bay, New York and Miami all played host to bowl games in baseball venues and Boston is going to lend Fenway Park to bowl season in the next year. It offered a unique experience for fans that are used to see the game from afar in what looks likes a modern day coliseum.

“I tell this to people all the time, you don’t realize how intimate [ballparks] are until you go to a baseball stadium to watch a football game. The upper deck is stacked right on top of the field,” said Miami Beach Bowl director Carlos Padilla II back in 2014.

The Miami Beach Bowl moved to a soccer stadium in Frisco, TX, but the game pretty much gets to return in glorious fashion between Miami’s two FBS programs.

FIU has always been in the shadow of UM despite having four times the enrollment. The Panthers established their football program in 2002 on the heels of the Hurricanes’ recent era of dominance and became a FBS program in 2005 when the dominance was starting to fade towards mediocrity.

A massive fight in the Orange Bowl in 2006 nearly severed all ties between the two programs. After 2007, a decade would pass before they would play each other again in 2018 at Hard Rock Stadium. A win for FIU would make their season and perhaps be the biggest win in program history. It may even be bigger than their first bowl win in 2010 against Toledo in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl which remains the only time the Miami Herald made FIU the centerpiece of their sports section.

Under Butch Davis, the Panthers are as good as they ever been in program history. They are coming off back-to-back bowl appearances for the second time in program history and last season won nine games for the first time ever. This year they are 5-5 and need a win against either Miami and C-USA leading Marshall to reach three straight bowls.

The Panthers have never won a game against Miami. Usually teams from the Power 5 conferences (Big 10, Big 12, ACC, SEC, Pac-12) dominate teams from the “Group of 5” conferences (Sun Belt, C-USA, American, MAC, Mountain West). It’s why most of the games in the first month of the college football season involves clashes with these classes of conferences, usually amounting to nothing more than a glorified preseason.

This matchup has a deeper meaning than that for these programs. The Hurricanes are treated as a de facto professional team in a college landscape. UM is a private school in Coral Gables with less than 11K students that became a football powerhouse because it took advantage of its rich recruiting base. FIU is the cities main public university and has more than 40K students yet many of them grew up cheering for the Hurricanes and just happen to not attend the school.

This has led to a clash on social media between the two fan bases leading up to the game.

This game might as well be senior day for both teams. Seniors from both teams are playing their final game in town on sacred ground and both rosters are comprised with players who played together or against each other in high school.

“We’ve got to go in there and protect it like our home because it is our home,” said Miami sophomore cornerback Al Blades Jr. “It was always our home, so we’ve got to go in there and play like it.

“I definitely think it’s going to be a special moment, not just for us, but for all the players in the past.”