ESPN computer thinks tanking Dolphins will win too much

If there is one bet to make on the Dolphins this season, the smart money would be on them having the worst record in the NFL and earning the No. 1 draft pick they covet to land the quarterback of their choice.

That’s the consensus of Las Vegas and online sports books.

Typical is vegasinsider.com, which has Miami’s Super Bowl odds at 500-to-1. The next longest shots are the Cardinals and Redskins at 300-to-1.

But then there is the mind-boggling computer projection by the ESPN Football Power Index that foresees the Dolphins’ tank job as an abject failure with the team blundering through a typically mediocre 8-8 season.

Opinion: As Dolphins pin hopes on draft picks, expect rough ride for next two years

The immediate reaction is that fortunately that wasn’t the computer model being counted on to forecast Dorian’s turn to the north.

ESPN runs the complete NFL schedule of 267 games through its simulator 20,000 times to come up with game-by-game projections.

Notably, they revealed the outcome of just one of those 20,000 simulations. Which seems rather whimsical.

It is also ludicrous to think there is any basis to foresee how a team that has turned over nearly a fourth of its roster just since its final preseason game will perform.

Nonetheless, the ESPN soothsayer has the Dolphins coming out of the box strong in not only winning the opener over the Ravens 20-14, but the following week giving Brian Flores an emotional 38-28 conquest of the New England Belichicks.

Obviously, the computer is high on FitzMagic.

This hard-to-fathom possibility is worth pondering only because the NFL is the most unpredictable of the major sports leagues.

And to wonder, how would Dolfans react if their team were to start out as an unforeseen overachiever?

Would it be a welcome surprise? Or would having the visions of Tank For Tua plans go suddenly awry be more disconcerting than the prospect of a season of losing?

One other thing to note from the ESPN simulation, the computer has the Houston Texans winning the AFC South with a 10-6 record. Which means those draft picks obtains in the Laremy Tunsil/Kenny Stills trade would be late-rounders, which isn’t at all far-fetched.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

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Here’s why Dolphins will miss John Denney

Preseason

Is there hope for Dolphins fans in 2019?

First things first. The Miami Dolphins are tanking. Secondly, they just went plaid having gone from light speed to ludicrous speed on the tanking.

I write this, still recovering from the news that Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills were traded to the Houston Texans for a couple first round picks, a second round pick and a partridge in a pear tree. I write this as LB Kiko Alonso was then traded to the New Orleans Saints for another LB who I believe had as many tackles last year as I had attempts at intermittent fasting, which ironically was a means for me to drop some LBs of my own. Finally, I write this after having seen a tweet by Dave Hyde of the Sun-Sentinel suggesting that a recently signed Xavien Howard could be next.

In all honesty, I feel like I am losing hope on this franchise.

Look, I’m not here to dissect the trade, specifically the Tunsil and Stills moves, and pretend to forecast that these are prescient moves by Chris Grier. It could very well turn out to be the heist of the century because after speaking to some of my friends who are Texans fans, they feel that this trade gets them to a wonderful 6-10 record. So if those players aren’t going to elevate the Texans to the next level, then I’m downgrading from extremely pissed to simply annoyingly irritated.

I get it. These are moves to stockpile picks like those survivalists canning, pickling and dehydrating food in anticipation of Y2K. The horde of draft picks are currency that will be used to guarantee that the Dolphins in the 2020 draft will be able to nab the quarterback they want (Tua Tagovailoa) or one of the other heralded players that I will probably be listening to Three Yards Per Carry debate over. And don’t think that I won’t fall in love with some QB with off the chart measurables and intangibles but is unfortunately from a school so small that it is accessible only by a six dog drawn sled but should nevertheless be drafted because Chris Kouffman says we should draft him.

But there is no certainty and nothing is guaranteed! Ask Laremy Tunsil. Too soon?

My frustration in all of this is that for the nearly 40 years that I have been a Miami Dolphins fan I cannot remember a time when this franchise was devoid of hope. And I’ve suffered through a lot as a fan.

I remember the lock out year and the quarterback who had what I would guess would be the inspiration for Ray Finkle’s mustache. Never lost hope. I remember watching Dan Marino blow out his achilles and took to blaming the Cleveland Browns turf as the culprit. Never lost hope (nor did I have hope in Scott Mitchell).  I remember consistently coming up short against the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs, being embarrassingly present for one of the losses. Never lost hope. I lived through 1-15 and the nightmare of Cam Cameron. Never lost hope. I sat disaffected when Nick Saban actually followed through on his word by not becoming the University of Alabama head coach but taking Wayne Huizenga’s plane to sign the contract. Never lost hope. I lived through a lot as a Dolphins fan and did so to the soundtrack of Rick Weaver and Hank Goldberg. Kids, that was a time when the Dolphins did not sell out enough to lift the blackout on television and some of us were forced to listen on something called a radio. But I digress. Anyway, I never lost hope.

The reason I write all of the above is that the common thread amongst all of those wonderful memories is that I could at least fall back on the fact that we had talent, which resulted in hope. We had Marino. We had the defense that Jimmy Johnson built. We had Saban drafting everyone from the SEC and anyone with the letters S-E-C in their name. We had Bill Parcells applying fixes along the way. So honestly, I cannot ever recall the aqua and orange purposely making moves to–ah screw it–overtly tanking.  Yes there were periods of rebuilding. But I, and likely other Dolphins fans, saw them more as periods of re-loading because, again, we had some great talent to build around. Looking up and down the depth chart I am at a loss. So you can appreciate when I, and I’m sure many other Dolphins fans as well, fell out of my chair screaming when the ESPN alert came across my phone with the announcement.

Am I to feel a little better that we were very active in claiming a bunch of players off waivers?  Will the hope come from this group? Likely not.

So where is the hope? Chris Grier has been here for many years, outliving many key people and I honestly do not know if he’s done enough to earn my loyalty or trust to give him a pass on all of this. Hell, we lived through so many iterations of what was supposed to pass for a competent offensive line and it still hasn’t been fixed. Then we turn around and trade our one given? Are we to assume that Brian Flores, coming from the Patriots system will bring the Patriots mindset, schemes, and, hopefully, luck? I guess so. Perhaps this Vince Biegel guy who we acquired in the Alonso trade turns out to be our Rob Ninkovich? Who knows? I don’t. There are too many unknowns. And I don’t like unknowns. I like certainty. Ok, give me 90% certainty. The 90% will give me some hope.

I hope that when we fast forward past the root canal and proctological exam that will be the 2019 season, that we come out on the other side with our franchise quarterback, a new left tackle and a bevy of other players via draft or free agency. I really hope that this happens and there is nothing but success and the front office would look like geniuses.  I then wouldn’t mind looking back at the absurdity of this piece, question why I would write it in the first place and, rather than explain me away as just being a knee-jerk jerk, will look to chalk it up to cabin fever having watched Hurricane Dorian coverage on television and Twitter for two straight days.

Perhaps that is my excuse. At least, I hope.

The S Stands for Selective: How MLS Invented Modern Football

MLS invented modern football.

While the eyes of Miami have been fixated on the birth of Inter Miami CF and their stadium situation, a growing dialogue regarding promotion and relegation in American soccer is believed to be a fix-all for fans who are disgruntled with Major League Soccer.

Many of the concerns held by fans are valid. The MLS regular season means nothing. In the grand scheme of international football, a MLS Supporter Shield is about as relevant to greatness as Netflix touting the number of accounts that streamed the latest Adam Sandler project its first weekend.

Sure, it sounds impressive. But if winning the UEFA Champions League is the soccer equivalent of Avengers: End Game’s historic global box office, then the prize for the best regular season in MLS is the Bruce Springsteen inspired film Blinded by the Light. Which coincidentally for this argument, Blinded by the Light was directed by Gurinder Chadha of Bend it Like Beckham fame.

Who much like Beckham’s determination to bring professional soccer to Miami, bet the reputation of past work on a faulty concept that historically hasn’t showed great returns.

Beckham and the MLS

With all of that said, the current single-entity business model provides Beckham a protection not afforded to his film-making counterpart. And that truly is what sets MLS apart and why it’s profitable. At this point you may be wondering what the league’s business model has to do with promotion/relegation and overall competitiveness. And the answer is everything.

 

Earlier this month when St. Louis was awarded an MLS franchise, it paid a reported $200 million to join the league. A payment that is distributed among the other franchises and the league itself. Like with expansion in other sports, the buy-in serves as an investment in the league and reserves that ownership group a franchise in the league for the foreseeable future.

Where this business model runs into trouble from the fans perspective is when owners believe their team would be better-suited playing in another city, a la Anthony Precourt and the Columbus Crew.

 

While ownership groups drum up civic enthusiasm as a means to secure public financing for their stadium, the hard truth is that an MLS club is about as representative of a community as your local fast-food franchise. Especially in a league like MLS, where portions of players salaries are still paid by the league and not the team.

Relegation in MLS?

In order to put in place a kind of promotion and relegation system, the league would need to assure owners who have paid cover charges of up to $200 million that their bottom line and fan interest would be protected.

Especially in cities like Miami, New York and LA, that would be exceedingly difficult, given all of the other entertainment options. I would have a hard time imagining a packed stadium in any of those cities to watch a side that has been relegated to Division 2 soccer on a Saturday night. So relegation of any kind appears to be off the table.

 

It would be one thing if MLS had a buy-in and then was fiscally irresponsible. But it’s conservative approach under Commissioner Don Garber’s administration to stabilize the league in the mid-2000s that has proven to be the key to unlocking a new concept for American soccer: stability.

MLS vs the international market

In a time where the international transfer market ballooned from a million to a billion-dollar business, America’s professional league chose to implement a salary cap when the league began in 1996.

 

Has this hindered the league’s short-term prospects at times? Definitely. But in an era where the ownership of football clubs internationally seems to be in revolving dollar of billionaires, MLS is growing.

 

Just this past week, English sides Bury F.C. and Bolton Wanderers both saw their past, present and future potentially go up in smoke. Of the two, only Bolton was able to reach a last-minute sale to avoid being expelled by the English Football League and liquidated. These financial downfalls came after relegation battles lost and ambitious spending to reclaim their former glory came up fruitless.

 

In an era where we hear more about $100 million transfers than struggling clubs who shutter from spending outside of their means, a conversation about the legitimacy of the salary cap in professional soccer needs to be had.

What MLS can teach international soccer

But is it possible to put a spending cap on the Real Madrid’s and Manchester City’s of the world without it appearing that a league or FIFA is punishing success and affluence?

 

And how would it be possible for an organization like FIFA to regulate a salary cap when they can’t even control their own internal corruption?

 

By the same accord, a salary cap league usually only works when owners are buying into a centralized league like the NBA or MLS. This is due largely to the fact that clubs in Europe are their own corporations rather than a subsidiary of a centralized and closed league.

 

This results in clubs that haven’t bought in, like Miami FC and the New York Cosmos, left out in the cold creating an access problem that trickles down to player development.

 

So how with all this talk of business strategy and making sure that a league maintains financial stability does MLS make a Sunday afternoon game in April between the New York Red Bulls and the Chicago Fire mean something?

 

It doesn’t. Because for the owners of the franchises and the executives of the league, they’ve already won before a ball is ever kicked.

By Deny Gallagher

Read more soccer-related articles clicking here. We’re getting ready for the arrival of Inter Miami to our city. What would you like to know about the team? Let us now! 

John Denney appeared in 224 games for the Dolphins, second-most behind Dan Marino.

Here’s why Dolphins will miss John Denney

We won’t see the likes of John Denney again on the Dolphins.

The 14-year veteran long snapper, released Monday, was an anomaly in the NFL — cynically referred to as Not For Long.

Denney was the ultimate specialist whose name didn’t show up in the scoring summary but often had a hand in shaping outcome of games. He was so adept at one skill, as the fulcrum for decisive kicks and game-altering punts, he appeared in all 224 games since joining the team as an undrafted rookie in 2005.

Only Dan Marino played in more games for the Dolphins.

Denney, 40, was virtually anonymous until his rare longevity made him a fan favorite. Now he is one of the last familiar names to depart in the stunning turnover of the Dolphins roster since the end of last season.

“To be thinking I was going to be a long-term guy in Miami was unforeseeable,” Denney told me in a 2016 interview.

As an undrafted defensive end who could also snap, his hope was “to maybe get a couple bucks under my belt to get a down payment on a house or a new car.”

Instead, the Weston resident stuck around through the regimes of coaches Nick Saban, Cam Cameron, Tony Sparano, Joe Philbin — plus interims Todd Bowles and Dan Campbell — and Adam Gase until the end came at the onset of the Brian Flores era.

It is indicative of the futility of the franchise this century that Denney only experienced two playoff games, both losses.

More from Maven: As Dolphins pin hopes on draft picks, expect rough ride for next two years

Denney’s wife an Internet star

It appeared Denney would continue his unforeseen run with the team when rookie Wesley Farnsworth, the latest threat to his job, was released Saturday.

It remains possible the Dolphins could re-sign Denney as the roster churn continues. But it didn’t sound likely Monday when he thanked the team for the opportunity he was given and the support of Dolphins fans over the years.

It has become rare for much to be known about the lives of players beyond their exploits on the field, except for elite quarterbacks and a few other select stars. Scan the Dolphins’ roster as it stands today and it’s a sea of faceless names.

While many players don’t last the average three seasons, Denney and wife Christy have had five kids during his time with the Dolphins.

It is a reflection of the obscurity of the position he plays, that despite being a two-time Pro Bowl selection his wife may be the most recognizable or well-known figure in his own household.

Christy is an all-star on the Internet with her food blog, The Girl Who Ate Everything, which she started in 2008 and generates several million page views a month. It has been featured in a half-dozen national publications and nine of her recipes have been “pinned” more than a million times on Pinterest. She has a cookbook that sells well on Amazon.

Denney much preferred to operate under the radar because long snappers only receive attention when they make a bad snap. He didn’t have many of those.

While the average fan may take the snapper for granted, every successful kick begins with him. His importance was evident when the Dolphins needed Andrew Franks to make a field goal on the final play to defeat the Cardinals in 2016.

It was only a 21-yarder, but the ball and the field were wet from rain throughout the afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium. Denney felt he had a decent grip on the ball and was ready to make the snap when the Cardinals called time out.

“The ref picked the ball up and had it under his towel, which was soaked, so it was serving no purpose. Then it started raining harder,” Denney said. “The second time the ball was a mess. It was a sloppy situation.”

Denney got the ball back to holder Matt Darr, who set it down and the winning kick was made. Franks got the credit, and Denney was more than happy to remain inconspicuous.

Content in obscurity

“I don’t expect anyone to know who I am. The hardcore Dolphins fan can pick me out. But it doesn’t happen often at all,” Denney said in the 2016 interview.

It wasn’t by accident that Denney stuck around so long. During this year’s training camp, Flores singled him out as one of the hardest workers on the team as far as conditioning and preparation.

At 6 feet 5 and a chiseled 242 pounds, Denney was more likely to be mistaken for a basketball player than a Dolphin.

But he didn’t just snap the ball and head for the sideline. He was credited with 49 tackles on special teams. He forced a fumble in 2012 and recovered three fumbles, including a game-changer in a 27-23 win over Atlanta in 2013.

There is no allowance made for sentiment in the NFL. Players are interchangeable parts, continuously being swapped out for a newer, sleeker model.

Denney was that reliable old lawn mower that still got the job done.

Even though we barely noticed him over the many years, he was a constant that will be missed.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

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El ingrato Real Madrid lo hace de nuevo: Keylor Navas ya es portero del PSG

El Real Madrid y Keylor Navas vivieron muchos momentos felices durante sus primeras temporadas con el equipo blanco.

El costarricense llegó desde un equipo pequeño como el Levante, y se ganó a punta de excelentes atajadas, su puesto como el guardameta titular de uno de las instituciones deportivas mas importantes del planeta.

Sin embargo, el Real Madrid lo volvió a hacer.

Dejó ir por la puerta de atrás a un referente, a un hombre sinónimo de títulos y de una era inigualable de campeonatos europeos consecutivos, que quizás no veamos mas nunca en la historia.

El Real Madrid con Keylor Navas en la portería consiguió diez títulos: tres Ligas de Campeones de Europa, cuatro Campeonatos Mundiales de Clubes, una Liga Española y tres Supercopas de Europa.

Sin embargo, no fue suficiente para ganarse el respeto de Florentino Pérez, quien tras el mundial de Rusia 2018, decidió traer a Thibaut Courtois.

El Real Madrid repitió lo que hizo con Raúl González, Iker Casillas y Cristiano Ronaldo, por nombrar algunos casos en los que el llamado club mas importante del mundo no mostró sus mejores modales para despedir a sus figuras.

Está dejando ir a una pieza fundamental en una era inolvidable para el madridismo, sin el reconocimiento que se merece, por el enésimo capricho del presidente Pérez.

El Madrid necesitaba refrescar el mediocampo y la delantera, y ficharon a un guardamenta. Dos porteros élite compartiendo la posición, mientras poco a poco se fue sacando a Keylor del puesto que se había ganado.

El regreso de Zidane fue la última señal para Navas. Florentino fue bien claro en ese sentido: el titular era Courtois, y apuesto que muchos fanáticos del Real Madrid se estarán lamentando de esta decisión por un buen tiempo.

Ahora, se fue a Paris con el PSG y muy pronto estará visitando el Santiago Bernabéu con otra camiseta, pues ambos equipos coincidieron y se enfrentarán en la fase de grupos de la Champions.

¿Aplaudirán a Navas cuando el PSG les gane?

Se escucharán seguramente muchos murmullos en el estadio cuando Keylor demuestre porque llegó a ser el mejor portero del planeta en su momento.

No se extrañen. Así, así, así trata el Madrid…

 

Disfrute de la cobertura del fútbol europeo en Cinco Razones Deportes Network, con los podcasts Deportes 3-0-Cinco y 90 + Cinco haciendo click aquí

Dolphins coach Brian Flores says will be in for a long season in 2019 with young, inexperienced Dolphins team.

As Dolphins get drunk on draft picks, expect dreary 2019 season

Trading away Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills for an impressive haul of high draft picks erases any doubt that Dolphins management is fully focused on the future and this season is just an annoyance to endure.

If you’ve invested in season tickets for 2019, tanks a lot.

The Dolphins have gone all in on a classic teardown, and now in possession of a pair of first- and second-round draft picks for each of the next two years, have the assets to deal into position to land whichever quarterback prospect they are targeting.

That could be Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa or Oregon’s Justin Herbert in 2020, or perhaps Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence in 2021.

When you look at Miami’s roster stripped of most recognizable names and loaded with undrafted free agents and a staggering influx of players who have yet to even practice with the team, it appears likely they won’t need to trade up at all to get the pick of the draft litter next April.

As he always does, in a Sunday afternoon media call coach Brian Flores took exception to the suggestion that the Dolphins are tanking the 2019 season.

He assured that the objective of coaches and players will be to win every week. But there was a sense of resignation in his voice and his words lacked conviction.

On weighing potential trades, Flores said, “My reaction is always the same, does this help this organization? … In this instance I felt this trade would help this organization.”

The only way to reach that conclusion is through the scope of a distant objective. Certainly not in the interest of being competitive right now.

The philosophy of rebuilding through the draft is sound, and the Dolphins had a rare opportunity to acquire two first-round picks and a second-round pick in the deal with the Texans. Some argue Miami fleeced a team that doesn’t have a true general manager.

But they did so at the expense of one of the essential, cornerstone positions in giving up left tackle Tunsil, who is regarded as one of the league’s ascendant offensive linemen and is under contract for the next two years.

Flores in tough spot

Asked why a player like Tunsil didn’t figure in the rebuild, Flores said, “I like him, but at the end of the day we just felt that this was the best move for us.”

In building back up, they will need to expend one of those precious high picks or a boatload of money to acquire someone comparable.

What the Tunsil trade tells us is:

•The Dolphins are determined to do whatever it takes to land an elite quarterback;

•They are writing off being at all competitive over those next two seasons.

As for the season that begins Sunday against the Ravens, it will be grim and bear it.

Not only for fans but especially for the designated sacrificial lamb, aka quarterback.

The stripped-down roster makes it irrelevant that 36-year-old journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick was selected to start initially over Josh Rosen.

Whoever is back there stands little chance operating behind the patchwork line of LT Julien Davenport, LG Michael Deiter, C Daniel Kilgore, RG Shaq Calhoun and RT Jesse Davis.

Davenport was inadequate with Houston, Kilgore is aged and coming off injury, Calhoun is an undrafted rookie and Davis is out of position. Deiter, at least, is a third-round pick with potential, but he’d look a lot better with established line mates to mentor him.

Starting out with Fitz will give this group an opportunity to seek some footing before tossing in Rosen for trial by fire. But it’s apparent management has concluded that the 10th overall pick in 2018 isn’t the answer.

The preseason showed Rosen has talent, but not the makings of something special, which is what GM Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores are staking their careers on ultimately obtaining.

So what we’re watching is the painstaking process of rebuilding in all its misery.

Following Browns’ model

It’s what the Cleveland Browns are just coming out of in constructing what they believe will become a contending team this season.

That required a 1-31 slog through 2016 and 2017.

The Browns have proven nothing yet, and there is no guarantee of success. They did get their franchise quarterback in Baker Mayfield.

The Dolphins are intent on following a similar blueprint. They are drunk on acquiring draft picks, and may not be done.

Dealing elite cornerback Xavien Howard is being mentioned if it would bring a ridiculous return.

They will ask everyone to trust the process — players, fans and media. But this management has yet to earn unwavering faith.

It’s one thing to acquire draft picks and quite another to succeed in building a winning team with them. The Dolphins’ draft history is sketchy. Grier still has a lot to prove.

S. Florida teams waiting for … when?

Meanwhile, South Florida’s sports landscape is a vast construction site. These Dolphins haven’t even laid a workable foundation.

It’s too early to tell if the Hurricanes and Marlins are on the right track. The Heat is constrained by bad contracts. The Florida Panthers appear to be in the best shape, but they’ve been rebuilding for two decades.

A week away from the opener at Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins’ roster remained a volatile mix. They were busy signing other teams’ castoffs. Veteran linebacker Kiko Alonso joined the exodus out of Miami on Sunday.

As of Sunday afternoon they had acquired 10 players through trade or signings since Thursday’s final exhibition game. The roster churn can be expected to continue into the season.

It’s roster chaos, is what it is.

Want to get a look at the Dolphins’ future? Best bet this season may be to watch Alabama or Oregon or even Clemson.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

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Marlins have won the Giancarlo Stanton trade

Don Mattingly has said it numerous times about Starlin Castro that guys who can hit, will eventually hit.

It two all the way up until August for it to happen, but it finally came true for one of the Marlins veteran leaders.

Castro has batted .314 with six home runs and 25 RBIs through the month of August and could potentially finish the season with 20 home runs for only the second time in his nine year carer.

Castro’s hot streak certainly came in bad timing for the Marlins. Had he’d been this hot in April or May, the Marlins’ season may have gone in different direction, or a contender would be willing to send a prospect over for him in the trade deadline.

However it is becoming clear that the Marlins have won the trade that sent Giancarlo Stanton to the New York Yankees after winning the 2017 National League MVP. The long term injury status of Stanton has tipped the scales in the Marlins favor but Castro’s two solid years were only the tip of the iceberg. The two other prospects that were packaged are the true jewels.

Jorge Guzman pitched a strong season in Double-A (3.50 ERA, 127 SO) and if it weren’t for his 138.2 innings, he’d probably get September call-up consideration. He’ll be 24 next season and could end up making his big league debut at some point.

Jose Devers is only 19 years old and led the High A Jupiter Hammerheads with a .325 batting average and has been selected to partake in the Arizona Fall League, which is a sure sign for prospects who have a future in the big leagues.

It’s actually a trade similar to when the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Dan Haren (former Marlin) to the Los Angeles Angels for Joe Saunders, Tyler Skaggs and Patrick Corbin in 2009. The Diamondbacks got a couple solid seasons out of Saunders while Skaggs eventually turned into Mike Trumbo and Corbin pitched for six years in Arizona realizing his potential in the recent years.

When the Marlins turn the corner on their rebuild project, Guzman and Devers will emerge and make their presence known. Meanwhile, the Yankees will have Stanton on their immense payroll through the 2027 season.

 

Preseason

Preseason: Dolphins at Saints – Top 3 players to watch

After the Miami Dolphins made some surprising releases after the third preseason game, the nature of the 2019 season came into focus. It’s obvious that in spite of head coach Brian Flores’s insistence they want to win every game, the Dolphins front office is more focused on 2020 and beyond. Most already surmised that, but now there’s no hiding it. Miami is carrying a Brink’s Truck worth of dead cap space with them into the season, over $40 million worth. Those bad contracts coming off the books can only help the Dolphins future, but the painful present still has to be endured.

2019 is going to be about developing players for the future, a youth movement like no other, unless the drastic happens and Miami trades Laremy Tunsil for Jadeveon Clowney. But that’s a story for another time.

With a long list of players expected not to play against the Saints, here is the best of the rest worth watching.

Patrick Laird, RB

Strange though it may seem, Laird has been Miami’s best running back this preseason. Yes, that includes Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage. Laird is shifty, determined, and can catch passes out of the backfield. His numbers so far rank him fifth overall in the preseason, running the ball 19 times for 101 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.3 yards a carry. True, the defenses he plays against by the time he sees the field aren’t impressive. But with how terrible the Dolphins offensive line is projected to be, it’s still worth mentioning.

Clearly, the battle for the third and possibly fourth running back spots are still up for grabs. The only ones not playing against New Orleans are Drake and Ballage. So this is Laird’s (as well as Walton and Gaskin’s) last chance to prove they deserve to make the team. If things go the way everyone thinks, that means Laird will make it on.

Nate Orchard, DE

In a stunning turn of events, the preseason leader in sacks is none other than five-year veteran Nate Orchard. He currently ties with Panthers rookie pass rusher Brian Burns with four. With Charles Harris sitting the final preseason game, it’s clear he’s one of the starters as a pass rusher. So this final game will decide who gets to start alongside him. Right now, Orchard seems to have a solid lead over fellow veteran Tank Carradine, but there’s still time for that to change.

Both Orchard and Carradine’s careers have been plagued by unfortunate circumstances. Whether it’s injuries or just a lack of roster space, their talent hasn’t had a chance to shine. Is there more to them than meets the eye? 2019 may be their audition for other teams, or an opportunity to stick long term as a depth player.

Josh Rosen, QB

It’s honestly sad that this is still being discussed. Nevertheless, Josh Rosen is not listed among the many, many players scheduled to sit out the final preseason game. So it’s very possible he will play. For what purpose? Perhaps to give him more reps and practice. Maybe the coaches believe he still has some kinks to work out. But if that’s the case, it’s also likely that coach Brian Flores has made his decision as to who will start the regular season.

If it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick, then the argument will be made that the best man didn’t win. Most fans believe he’s earned the right to start the season after his preseason performances. For some reason, the coaches seem to disagree. It is Flores’s first year as a head coach, maybe he deserves the benefit of the doubt. But all of these rumors swirling around the team, paired with questionable decisions like this one…things could unravel quickly.

Header for Laremy Tunsil story

5 LIVE: How far do you go to get Jadeveon Clowney?

Rumors are beginning to intensify as the Houston Texans continue to shop elite pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney. And although no one can say for certain what a trade may entail, there’s plenty of gossip as to what a potential trade might look like.

In fact, several key names have already been linked in a potential trade. And whether that includes a play-making wide receiver, draft compensation, a starting running back, or the most important position on the offensive line, there’s plenty of possible trade scenarios.

We asked some of our writers to weigh in on the situation, and tell you how far they would go to get the Texans defensive end.

Alfredo Arteaga

Two Questions.  How bad do you want Jadeveon Clowney?  Bad enough to give up a 2nd round pick, and “allow” the Texans to take the WR of their choice in Kenny Stills or DeVante Parker.  That’s it.  Is he worth Laremy Tunsil?  Absolutely NOT.  If you believe the replacement cost charts (A guide by which the odds that a certain pick can replace the player you are trading equalizing transactions) then you have to ask for Two 1st round picks, a 3rd round pick,and Clowney for Tunsil while the Texans also take 2020 salary from non-essential personnel in the form of a Kenny Stills or Kiko Alonso, or both.  If THAT deal is made, you can reasonable expect to replace Tunsil while rolling the dice on Jadeveon Clowney wanting to stay in Miami on an extension.

Jake Mendel

The idea of Jadeveon Clowney on the Dolphins is tempting. However, what is the price? If the Dolphins could get him for a skill position player (Kenyan Drake or Kenny Stills) and a mid-round pick? Sign me up. It is also important to wonder if Clowney actually wants to play in Miami. Worst case, if the Dolphins get him and he decides to leave, you still have a third round comp pick coming back. No chance am I trading Tunsil for Clowney.

Luis Sung

It’s no secret Miami is in need of someone reliable to rush the passer. Scheming it in can only go so far, and with the departure of Cameron Wake, there’s no one to take pressure off the secondary. Enter Jadeveon Clowney, one of the most hyped pass rushers to come out of college in recent history. He wants out of Houston, and the Dolphins are the favorites to land him, But at what cost?

Supposedly, the Texans want Laremy Tunsil. The only way I’d be willing to give him up is if they gave up Clowney, a first round pick, and maybe a little more. Tunsil is too valuable to give up for Clowney alone. However, if Houston is in need of weapons, then a package dealing Kenny Stills, Kenyan Drake and maybe a mid-round pick for Clowney (and a mid-rounder for 2021) would be acceptable. If Clowney is really willing to sit out regular season games, then that gives Miami some leverage. Hopefully, they use it.

Josh Houtz

For me, it comes down to whether or not you view Clowney as the missing piece on defense. Which I absolutely do believe he has that type of impact, and would work wonders in Flores’ hybrid front. But at what cost? I like Clowney, but I would NOT trade away a 1st round pick, or an elite 25-year old LT like Laremy Tunsil. But guys like Kenny Stills and Kenyan Drake, would absolutely be available in a trade. Coupled with a mid-round pick, might be enough to pry away the disgruntled DE.

In the end, a second-round pick as a stand-alone is the highest draft compensation I would part with. The toughest decision would come down to whether or not the Texans would get crazy, and part with a top draft pick in addition to clowney. Would you then make the trade for Tunsil? For a team with such little hope on the offensive line, I don’t think I would…

 

Ethan J. Skolnick 

As far as you can without giving up Laremy Tunsil. You. Do. Not. Do. That. Not unless there’s no chance of re-signing him. It’s a premium position, just as pass-rusher is. So by giving up Tunsil, you’ve taken from Peter to pay Paul, which makes no sense at this stage, and will have collateral damage in the locker room. It’s difficult enough for Brian Flores to win over the room in the midst of a tank (er, rebuild). Now trade one of the most popular and productive players, at a position of need? Nah. So I’d give up Kenyan Drake and either Kenny Stills or DeVante Parker. And maybe a pick. Or maybe one of them and a second rounder, if you know Clowney will stay long term. But that’s it. No Tunsil. No way.

Kenny Stills is among the veteran Dolphins with uncertain futures. (Photo/Tony Capobianco)

Which Dolphins veterans will follow T.J. McDonald out the door?

DAVIE – There is nothing shocking in T.J. McDonald’s release by the Dolphins. It’s the way of the NFL that veteran players become expendable before their shelf life expires.

He likely won’t be the last familiar name to be discarded this week by the Dolphins.

There is considerable speculation regarding players such as Kiko Alonso, Kenny Stills, Reshad Jones and John Denney with the cutdown of rosters to 53 players looming Saturday at 4 p.m.

I wouldn’t be surprised if any or all of them are gone before the opener.

While other teams will be cutting veteran players, a key consideration for the Dolphins is determining which players will be able to help them when they are ready to compete for the playoffs.

That’s why veteran linebacker Alonso is at the top of the list of established players likely to join the exodus out of Miami that began this past offseason.

Jones, a two-time Pro Bowl safety and Miami’s highest-paid player ($13 million base salary) is 31 and has missed most of training camp with a foot injury following offseason shoulder surgery.

Denney, in his 15th season as long snapper, is 40 and has rookie Wesley Farnsworth nipping at his heels.

Stills, the team’s most productive receiver over the past three seasons, is a bit of a different case after criticizing owner Steve Ross regarding hosting a fund raiser for Donald Trump.

Dolphins coach Brian Flores on Monday revealed little about the move to part with McDonald, a starter the past two seasons.

Bobby McCain has taken over as the starter at free safety. But McDonald still had a role as a hybrid linebacker-safety in Flores’ defense, though he has been dealing with an undisclosed injury.

Naturally, there is savings in salary cap and real money, which is a factor to varying degrees whenever teams part with players who still have value.

“Putting a roster together, there’s many variables, salary cap being one of them,” Flores said. “That’s just one part of the equation that goes into making these decisions.

“We’re going to do what we feel is best for the team from a salary cap standpoint , from a performance standpoint on the field, from an overall team standpoint.”

As for what tilted the equation against McDonald, Flores said, “I think he’s a guy who has a good skill set, one that has been productive in this league. But there’s a lot that goes into putting a team together.

“I think with T.J., at the end of the day it just wasn’t the right fit and we as an organization decided to move on.”

Who will follow him out the door?

Asked if there is a place on a team looking to the future for players with six or more years of experience, Flores said, “Good players and productive players and guys that we feel fit what we’re trying to do offensively, defensively and the kicking game, we’re going to try to keep them around.”

Keep that response in mind as cut-down day approaches and see if upcoming moves match those words.

The Stills situation will be most interesting to watch, given the off-field issues. Flores revealed after Thursday’s game that he played a string of Jay-Z songs at practice as a challenge to get Stills to focus more on the field.

“I think he’s responded well,” Flores said. “I think he’s practiced well. I think he’s a guy who’s got mental toughness and he works hard and the game’s important to him. I think he’s responded well.”

Alonso and Jones have returned to practice after injury absences and Flores says he’s glad to have them. If remains to be seen if he and the front office decide to keep them – and other veteran mainstays – around.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

(Video: Dolphins coach Brian Flores discusses T.J. McDonald and his view on how veteran players fit into the rebuilding plan.)

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