Pressure Point: Dolphins’ collapse raises questions about future with Tagovailoa

A season that showed potential to be something special for the Miami Dolphins ended the same place as every other one this century.

On the trash heap.

Surprisingly it was Mike McDaniel’s highly acclaimed offense and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa that led the way to the dumpster, culminating in a noncompetitive 26-7 wild-card loss at frigid Kansas City on Saturday night.

Would have been difficult to imagine when the Dolphins were dropping 70 points on the Broncos in the third week of the season and Tagovailoa was on his way to leading the NFL in passing yards.

Rarely have grandiose — even historic — stats added up to so little. Because although Tua amassed Marino-like passing numbers and earned his first Pro Bowl selection, the true measure of his season was in how he and the offense came up short against teams that reached the playoffs.

The Dolphins went 1-6 in games against the Bills (twice), Eagles, Chiefs (twice) and Ravens. In those games they scored 20, 17, 14, 22, 19, 14 and 7 points.

Tua shrunk in biggest games

Notably, in the three season-ending losses Tagovailoa had his worst passer ratings of the season: 71.9 against the Ravens, 62.7 against the Bills and 63.9 against the Chiefs. He had four touchdown passes and five interceptions in that stretch.

In each of those games his performance paled in comparison to the opposing quarterback — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

If this comes across as a harsh assessment, consider that a big topic of the Dolphins’ offseason will be if or when they will pursue a long-term contract extension with their quarterback. Tua is due to make $23.1 million in 2024, the final season of his rookie contract.

The going rate for top quarterbacks these days is north of $50 million a year.

The Dolphins may wait until after next season to decide whether to offer Tua a new contract. Whenever that may occur, his agent can point to an impressive array of stats in building a case that he belongs in that category.

To be sure, Tua accomplished a lot this season and provided some dazzling moments, particularly in spectacular connections with Tyreek Hill. He finished with a league-leading 4,634 yards, 29 touchdown passes and a passer rating of 101.1.

Significantly, for the first time in his career he started every game and didn’t miss any time due to injury. He led Miami to an 11-7 record and its second consecutive playoff appearance.

Fins still winless in playoffs since 2000

But the season cannot be considered a success — and this burden ultimately rests with the head coach — after the Dolphins squandered a three-game lead in the AFC East in the final five weeks and ended with another one-sided loss on the road in the first round up the playoffs.

The Dolphins are now 0-6 since their last playoff win in 2000 while being outscored 164-62. Even the 2000 team got rolled the next week 27-0 by the Raiders. The only game that was even close was the 34-31 loss last year at Buffalo.

How it feels being a dolphins fan. pic.twitter.com/XDkREMEGSK

— Stan of Mike McDaddy/Wilkins/Tua/Achane (@Tranracialangel) January 14, 2024

It is in that context that the disappointment of this season is magnified: nearly a quarter century without a single win in the playoffs. The cast of players, coaches and decision makers keeps changing, yet the path always leads back to the same crossroad to nowhere.

The latest roster overhaul begun in 2019 was going to finally fix that. The Dolphins were going to find their franchise quarterback, by golly, and a coach to break the chain of lost seasons.

That quest seemed to be coming together in the first 12 games of this season with Tua leading McDaniel’s innovative offense that was the talk of the league. But production diminished late in the season, particularly against the better teams.

Will Miami pursue extension for Tagovailoa?

Ultimately, that 70-20 trouncing of the Broncos and feel-good routs of other middling teams served only as build up to a bigger letdown.

“We were definitely expecting us to be a really good team this year. We definitely weren’t expecting a first-round exit,” Tyreek Hill said after the season-ending loss to the Chiefs.

Now the franchise reverts to another juncture of uncertainty about the future and troubling questions arise entering the offseason. Is Tagovailoa the right quarterback to invest in long term? Is McDaniel the coach to lead the way out of the wilderness?

We’ll hear more from Dolphins tomorrow, but after the game Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel addressed the disappointment and Tua was asked about any pressure for a new contract.

“I have full trust in myself. I have full trust in what I’m capable of doing for our organization.” pic.twitter.com/vwdLYT5VKG

— Will Manso (@WillManso) January 14, 2024

Not that either is headed out the door. But it is understandable that patience is thin. The NFL is all about results right now. That has become expected of young quarterbacks more than ever in recent years.

Mahomes rocketed to immediate stardom. C.J. Stroud made an immediate impact for the Texans as a rookie this season and already has a resounding playoff win under his belt.

At his best, Tagovailoa is a remarkably accurate passer. He remained healthy all season and improved his record as a starter to 32-19. But his struggles against the better teams is troubling. His record in December and January games is 10-11.

In mulling whether to make a potential $250 million investment in Tua, the Dolphins must assess whether he is a quarterback who can just get them to the playoffs or can he elevate his game to win in the postseason.

Re-signing Wilkins should be top priority for Dolphins

The aftermath of a season that promised much more than it ultimately delivered will bring other immediate challenges on personnel matters. Most important, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, coming off a monster season, can become an unrestricted free agent.

On the bright side, Wilkins said after Saturday’s loss that he would like to stay with the Dolphins. It remains to be seen where the money and ambition leads.

The Dolphins could continue to go “All In” for 2024 and add/extend players

With simple restructures they will have $33M cap space for 2024.

$83M cap space with maximum restructures

Simple restructures turns payments into signing bonuses

Maximum restructures turns payments… pic.twitter.com/NVCJW6ztgN

— Five Reasons Sports 🏀🏈⚾️🏒⚽️ (@5ReasonsSports) January 14, 2024

Hill said: “Unfortunately, every locker room is going to be different every year, salary cap and guys wanting to get paid and going other places. I feel in my heart that if this team were to come back together this is the right group of people to win. We got everything what it takes. You can see that the defense came along, and as an offense, we have to be able to put drives together and help those guys out.

“We just can’t be a bunch of front-runners. Next year I feel like we’ll learn from it.”

For the Dolphins, hope always points to next year.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.