Pressure Point: Tua presents difficult draft dilemma for Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa, the quarterback of Dolfans fantasies for much of the past year, may well be there for the taking when the Dolphins make their pick at No. 5 in the 2020 NFL draft.

The Dolphins may be wise to take a pass.

What, after the incessant #tankfortua talk and all the offers of selling souls for a chance to select the talented Alabama quarterback?

It’s not only the serious hip injury that required surgery in November that makes Tua a risky pick.

There was the high (right) ankle sprain that prompted a surgical procedure in October. That was the bookend to the same injury and surgery on his left ankle in December 2018.

The latter came on the heels of a sprained knee followed by a quad injury earlier in the 2018 season.

All of which must be of major concern to any NFL team considering investing a top-10 pick on Tagovailoa.

Tua bandwagon an easy ride

It is easy for fans and media to say unequivocally, ‘hell yeah, Tua or bust!’

It can’t be an emotional decision for the Dolphins in the early stages of trying to lay the foundation to break from a long pattern of losing.

🔥🚨new on 5🚨🔥

my latest article on @5reasonssports–

now that alabama QB tua tagovailoa officially declared for the 2020 NFL draft, many fans are left wondering what the miami dolphins should do next.

my answer:

tua tagovailoa, no matter whathttps://t.co/xdfY8l1PRN

— josh houtz (@houtz) January 7, 2020

A landmark offseason for Miami was assured when Tagovailoa confirmed Monday that he is foregoing his final season at Alabama.

It prompted the immediate assumptions that: 1) Miami is the likely destination for Tagovailoa; 2) The Heavin’ Hawaiian will be the same player that made him the likely first overall pick before he dislocated his right hip Nov. 16 against Mississippi State.

Neither can be verified at this point. But the Dolphins will have a chance at Tua if they want him.

There is no question about the talent or the character. Elite on both counts. Tagovailoa is the model for what any team would want to build around.

The hip injury (dislocated right hip and posterior wall fracture) was the game changer, though. It is a rare football injury and there is little basis to predict how a player will come back from it.

As Tua said Monday, “I don’t think any of the doctors can tell the foreseeable future.”

That sets up a dilemma that is so Dolphins.

Pitfalls from the past

Imagine the fallout if they shy away from Tua and he goes on to a long and spectacular career. Much like they did with Drew Brees amid concerns about his shoulder in favor of Daunte Culpepper, who lasted all of four games with Miami.

At the same time, they can’t afford to follow the path of the Redskins, who bet the farm on Robert Griffin III and got burned when a seemingly transformative QB began to break down after one superlative season.

Sure, Tua is a different type of quarterback than RG3. But the accumulation of lower-body injuries in college raises durability issues that can’t be overlooked.

Finding a franchise quarterback isn’t just about evaluating talent. It’s about projecting longevity.

It’s not just about whether Tua can get back to a semblance of the special player he was. It’s about, can he last?

Different options for Miami

When he spoke in early December about his recovery, Tagovailoa acknowledged, “I don’t think I’d be the same again because there’s, like metal in here, you know? I lose some rotation inward, so I won’t be able to twist as much inward and whatnot.”

Where will Tua Tagovailoa go in the NFL Draft?

The over/under draft spot is currently 4.5 at @PointsBetUSA:https://t.co/UE6k1y498f pic.twitter.com/3dmQhuzPPP

— SportsLine (@SportsLine) January 7, 2020

No team can be sure prior to the draft what they’d be getting if they pick Tua. The stakes become even higher for the Dolphins if it becomes necessary to trade up from the No. 5 spot to get him.

They do have three first-round picks, and 14 overall in 2020.

They also have a lengthy shopping list of needs to reach respectability — offensive line help, pass rushers and run stoppers, secondary and a primary running back, to name a few.

Fortunately, they don’t have to make the call on Tua right now. More medical information will be available on Tagovailoa’s progress before the draft in late April which could provide a clearer basis for a decision.

Flores-Grier tough to figure

Meanwhile, it would be fascinating to eavesdrop on the discussions taking place among the Dolphins braintrust between now and then.

It may not be at all along the lines of what is being posited on social media or major media sites.

What has become apparent through the first year of the Brian Flores-Chris Grier leadership tandem is it is unpredictable. The abrupt dismissal of offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea and hiring of Chan Gailey out of retirement is only one example.

It is possible they have a totally different read and plan on the quarterback solution. Maybe they have their eye on someone other than Tagovailoa.

Maybe their emphasis is on building other parts of the team first and adding a quarterback later, relying on a veteran stopgap such as Ryan Fitzpatrick in the meantime.

Whatever they decide on Tua, it will be a significant turning point in the ultimate success or failure of this Dolphins regime and its rebuilding plan.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns