Tea leaves predicted it: DT Christian Wilkins set to hit FA market

If you have been following the breadcrumbs or reading the tea leaves since the Miami Dolphins season ended in January, you may have gained a sense that the Fins and their star defensive tackle were about to part ways. And it’s no surprise that THAT is exactly what is about to happen come March 13th 2024. 



The clues that predicted this are as follows:



January 15th — Dolphins end of the season press conference



General Manager Chris Grier recalls that he and Christian Wilkins representation attempted to negotiate over last summer, the Dolphins and Wilkins camp admitted that the deal was fair at the time, but the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement.

Grier also used his classic line of “earned the right to be a free agent” which usually means, “this player will be leaving the Miami Dolphins in one way or another”.

Grier used this line when talking about the team’s former tight end Mike Gesicki last January of 2023. Gesicki found himself playing for the New England Patriots that season.

Then February and new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver came, and Wilkins status with the team was still in the air, despite high praise from Weaver.

“I know that he’s positioned himself, obviously, for a huge payday, and as an ex-player, I completely understand the business of the league. I love Christian and would love to have him, but man, we’ll see.”

Then late February came, and Grier reiterated just as much as he did the first time – using his favorite phrase again, and telling us that he’d be having talks with Wilkins’ agent.

But nothing fruitful ever became of it.

And now Wilkins is on the verge of hitting the free agent market.

What is odd is that the Miami Dolphins did not use a card that was in their hands during this scenario – a card that may have gave the Miami Dolphins something in return if they lost Christian Wilkins to another team during the 2024 free agency period…

The non-exclusive franchise tag.

The Dolphins could have tagged Wilkins which would have given Wilkins and his camp the ability to negotiate with other teams, while the Dolphins had a chance to match any offer.

If the Dolphins refused or could not match, Wilkins would be headed to another NFL team, but the Dolphins would be compensated with two 1st-round picks from that particular club.

Sounds great for the Dolphins, doesn’t it?

But finding a team to trade two 1st-rounders for a defensive tackle in today’s NFL would be difficult, and this would hurt Wilkins chances of having a team approach him with a deal. The tag would have also increased Wilkins cap number for the 2024 season, and the Dolphins already have a limited amount of cap space for this upcoming year while having to make some expensive decisions on starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa as well as others. However, it doesn’t hurt to try fishing and see what you can catch, and the Fins could have rescinded the tag by mid-July or even earlier if no team was biting and they wanted to do right by Wilkins.

But the Dolphins decided not to be selfish and not to frustrate Wilkins’ opportunity to land a big payday, which goes to show how much this team has started valuing player-front office relationships since Mike McDaniel entered the building in 2022.

So that’s the gist of it.

By the way, Grier also used the phrase “right to be a free agent” with starting offensive guard Robert Hunt. So we can probably make an educated guess on where that’s headed.