The Heat’s 2018-19: Making Sense of an Odd Season

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Just about any way you want to evaluate success, you have to come to the same conclusion regarding the 2018-19 season: it was not a success.

The Heat finished the season 39-43, which was short of the season total of 41.5 that was at the WestGate in Las Vegas prior to the start of the season. They failed to make the playoffs, which by Pat Riley’s own admission is the primary goal for his franchise every single season. Despite the overall sour note that the season ended on, there were still quite a few areas that should leave fans hopeful going into the off-season. Before we get into that, let’s touch on the brightest aspect of the team this season, which was the wonderful distraction that helped alleviate the more long-term concerns surrounding the franchise: Dwyane Wade’s final season.

#OneLastDance

The main plot line for the Heat season: Dwyane Wade’s #OneLastDance. With the team struggling to assert itself in a relatively open Eastern Conference, Dwyane became the focus of the Heat’s marketing efforts, especially once the Heat began falling out of the playoff race. Before I get into the statistics of a surprisingly effective year for the greatest player in Heat history, I’ll state that I was personally blown away by how effective he was this season. For a player with his history of injuries and physical contact, and his adjustment to a reserve role, it was remarkable that Wade could turn in his best season since his initial divorce with the Heat back in 2016. Let’s go through some of the areas that Dwyane really showed out and compare them to the last time he was that effective in those categories:

Games Played: 72 (Most since 2015-16)

Assists per 36 Minutes: 5.7 (Most since 2009-10)

3-Pointers Made: 86 (Most since his career high of 88 in 2008-09)

3-Pointers Attempted: 261 (Most since his career high of 278 in 2008-09)

3-Point Percentage: 33.0% (CAREER HIGH)

Assist to Turnover Ratio: 1.81 (Highest mark since he had a 1.81 AST/TO back in 2012-13)

Double Doubles: 4 (Most since 2013-14)

Dwyane (Benjamin) Button via Christian’s photoshop library

When you take a peek at Dwyane’s Synergy numbers, you see that he was still a productive and serviceable player on a team that competed all season trying to make the playoffs. Wade was in the 43rd percentile in isolation plays plus passes, 49th percentile in pick and rolls plus passes, and 44th percentile on post ups plus passes. Ranking right around league average in every major offensive play type shows that 37-year old Dwyane was still a useful player (and bolsters the argument that he could’ve kept playing). That argument gets even stronger when you see that Dwyane held opponents to 0.92 points per possessions in man defense, which was in the 55th percentile league wide.

Of course, what made Dwyane the truly dynamic player that he was was his ability to come up big in the most important moments. When the Heat were with in a game within 5 points with a minute or less remaining in regulation, Dwyane led the team in points scored, 3-pointers made, rebounds, assists, steals, AND blocks. He truly became the legend we all know and love in those final moments even in his final season.

While it’s somewhat disappointing that Wade didn’t get one last playoff appearance to ride into the sunset, I would argue that his career ending triple-double in Brooklyn was only possible because the Heat were eliminated from contention. Dwyane to Udonis for the jumper to complete Dwyane’s triple double will go down as one of the great plays in franchise history purely on nostalgia alone.

Farewell G.O.A.T. May you ride into the Valhalla of retirement and get to crushing bottles of wine on the golf course.

Dwyane catches eyes with the Basketball Gods looking down on him

#JustiseBetter

Nobody on the roster had a more significant season than Justise Winslow when it comes to a career prospective. He showed his first real signs that he could be a useful offensive player. His first two seasons in the league were mired with injuries and an inability to shoot with any consistency. Teams had left him open and dared him to beat them. Those days are officially behind him as he has expanded and grown his game in a variety of areas. Here are some the metrics that Justise improved in from 2017-18 to 2018-19:

As you can see, Justise improved his game in many ways, from finishing around the rim, to establishing his mid-range jumper, to expanding his use of his floater, to reaffirming that 2017-18’s 3-point improvement wasn’t an anomaly. Justise increased his 3-point rate by 22% this season and kept the same efficiency from behind the arc, which is a great sign for his future development. Having the confidence in his shot will enable him to work on other aspects of his game that he needs to improve, such as free throw shooting, finishing in the pick and roll, and finishing more reliably in transition. However, the most significant development for Justise was his leap as a floor general.

When Goran Dragic went down with a knee injury in December, Justise was called on to take the mantle of heading the Heat’s offense, and the team responded by winning 8 of their next 10 leading Spoelstra to declare Winslow the starting point guard moving forward. Even before this season, Winslow had showed flashes of being a capable playmaker, but getting thrust into the lead role gave him an opportunity to show off his facilitating instincts.

Part of what helped open things up for Justise is that last season he established himself as reliable 3-pointer shooter (38% on 129 attempts). That forces defenses to stay closer to him at the three-point line which opens up his ability initiate the drive and kick game. He also has the initial burst to beat his man and take it all the way to the rim, which is why it’s huge that he continues to improve his touch around the basket. Here is one of my favorite examples of how Justise’s established range allowed him to take a premier defender off the dribble and get to the rim.

Of course, often when you see an increase of a role on one end, sometimes things can slip a bit on the other end. Winslow had already established himself as a staunch defender heading into this season saw his defensive play slip a bit as he began exerting more effort and attention to the offensive end of the court. Justise was only in the 49th percentile in overall defense this season, which was down from the 65th percentile last season, and his peak in the 81st percentile his rookie season. Part of that though has to do with the positions he is being asked to defend, and moving forward, it would make more sense from a structural standpoint to treat him as a guard on both sides of the ball.

Analysis of Winslow’s Defense using NBA Stats Matchup Data and Basketball-Reference Position Estimate Data

As seen above, Winslow fared much better both in his ability to keep opponents from scoring (FG% & FT%) and in his ability to make plays defensively (TOV & BLK) when he defended guards and small wings (1-2.5) versus wings and bigs (3-5). While Winslow’s flexibility is one of his strengths, after 4 years in the league we are getting a very clear picture of who he is as a player and where his advantages are. Put the ball in his hands and stick him on the opposing team’s guards and build around him as such.

The Rise of BAM

This season brought the changing of the guard that the center position, as Bam Adebayo supplanted Hassan Whiteside as the team’s starter near the midway point. The irony of it all, and I supposed speaks to the upside that Bam has, is that Hassan might have had his best season as a NBA player in 2018-19. While I won’t be getting too deep into Hassan’s season in this article (I’ll have some words on him later this summer once he decides on his player option), part of his success this season was due to his strong play once he was demoted to a bench role, after Bam excelled while Whiteside was injured. In past seasons, Hassan did not react well to reduction in his playing time or getting benched in 4th quarters, but it seems he has put a lot of that behind him. That maturity I believe will help him prolong his career as he enters his 30’s.

Back to Adebayo, who in his age-21 season showed a lot of growth as the season progressed.

(stats above are per/36 minutes played; via NBA Stats)

As you can see above, Bam showed gradual improvement in almost every area of importance from the beginning of the season to the end. Post All-Star stats are especially revealing because that data set only includes Adebayo as a starter, and shows the he really embraced the role and continued to grow. To put Adebayo’s sophomore campaign into historical perspective…. he averaged better than 13 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block per 36 minutes , which has only ever been met by ONE player in NBA HISTORY who was age 21 or younger: Nikola Jokic. Jokic actually did it TWICE, at ages 20 and 21, and had been alone in that historical benchmark before Bam’s emergence this season.

While that is clearly a great sign for the young man, I’m not sure it’s realistic or fair to expect him to become a star floor general to the extent that Jokic is making a name for himself. Nekias Duncan, someone much smarter than me, mentioned in our Miami Heat Beat group chat that while Bam probably doesn’t have the ceiling from a play-making perspective to run an offense like Nikola does, he certainly has the ability to have an offense run through him. The big thing that’s missing? Reps.

Data via Synergy Sports

Bam’s role in his first two seasons has been fairly limited in terms of the variety of things the Heat require him to do, compared to his actual versatility. We won’t get a real idea of Bam’s true offensive ceiling until he gets the chance for a heavier share of the offense’s possessions. However, as you can see above, he already is proving himself worthy of offense running through him in the post, as his post possessions including passes had the Heat scoring 1.04 PPP this season. It is also fascinating to see that the Heat scored on every single possession where Bam was operating as the pick and roll handler. But again, it’s only 5 reps. That’s an area that I would like to see explored more next season.

Let’s also not forget that Bam is turning himself into an elite defensive big for the modern era of the NBA. His ability to defend all positions on the court improves the Heat’s ability to switch in pick and roll situations without getting themselves into a mismatch. Bam finished the season defending the 3rd most possessions on the team and holding opponents to 0.876 points per possession via Synergy Sports, which placed him in the 77th percentile league wide. He was second on the Heat in defensive percentile, only trailing Hassan Whiteside (86th percentile). At this stage the sky is the limit for the Kentucky product and, in my opinion, has the highest chance of reaching star potential of the players currently on the Heat’s roster.

SEASON’S END MAILBAG

I decided to ask the wonderful people on Twitter for some ideas on what topics to cover in this season ending long-form, so I compiled the best questions.

(Aside: Got to see Tone [pronounced Tony] at Wade’s final home game for a fleeting moment because the halftime breaks are too damn short, so it’s kinda fitting that he asked a handful of important questions that I will now answer.)

How efficient was Bam at jump shots?

24 of 74 (32.5%) before the All-Star Break

18 of 53 (34.0%) after the All-Star Break

Last season, Bam shot 27 of 90 (30% FG) on jumpers, so he definitely showed improvement over his rookie season. He has a good form and always looks comfortable despite the results. He’s also developing into a very reliable free throw shooter, as he shot 77% from the line after the all-star break. Free throw shooting is one of the best predictors when identifying talented shooters, so that makes you optimistic that Bam will continue improving his efficiency.

Where did Justise/Josh/Derrick/Bam lineups rank per 36 among the roster?

Last season, the Heat had 121 4-man combinations that played at least 50 minutes together. Winslow-Richardson-Jones Jr.-Adebayo lineups ranked 94th out of those 121 combos as the Heat were outscored by 11 points in those 57 minutes. When you run the search in terms of plus/minus per 36 minutes, this lineup then ranks 104th out of 121 combos at -8.2/36 minutes.

This still falls very much in the realm of small sample theater. In these 57 minutes, Justise had 18 points and 9 assists, though that was on 24 FGA along with 5 turnovers. McGruder and Waiters combined to go 0 for 6 from behind the arc in these minutes. What should give you some optimism is that the group was +11 in 24 minutes with Dwyane on the court. Maybe sharing the court with a veteran presence like Goran, which only happened for 1 minute all season, would help them succeed.

Was Goran actually good off the bench?

It shouldn’t be a big surprise that Goran was actually a more efficient player coming off the bench (44 FG%, 42.6 3P%) than when he was a starter (40.1 FG%, 31.4 3P%) in 2018-19. The bench role by default has players going up against reserves more often than not, which should make things a little easier, considering he plays the position with the most talent in the league. Despite that, there is still always a bit of uncertainty when you are asking an established player (that was an All-Star last season) to take a secondary role. Dragic has always been a consummate professional, and in exit interviews in April he was very open about the growth that Justise had showed and was not concerned about their fit or his role moving forward. If Spoelstra decides to use Goran as a 6th man going into next season, assuming he opts into his player option, you can expect him to excel against opposing B squads.

Has Josh Richardson peaked?

One of my biggest regrets to this day is that I still cannot see into the future. However, Josh is entering his age-26 season which means that he right in the middle of his physical prime. I would still have optimism that Josh will be able to improve parts of his game (finishing around the rim, refine shooting), but more than anything I believe he just needs a true #1 to take the attention off him. Josh did not show much in his one on one game (17th percentile in isolation plays via Synergy), but really broke through this season in his ability to operate in the pick and roll (67th percentile in pick and roll plays including passes via Synergy; 40th percentile in 17-18, 21st percentile in 16-17).

Josh has already established himself a premier 3-and-D player, so in that respect, he probably has peaked because I’m not sure he’ll ever take his game to an All-Star level. On the flip side, there were rumors that Josh was already playing through injuries before the groin injury that cost him the end of his season, so it’s also possible we have yet to see the best of JRich. Miami’s ability to support him with high end talent will also impact his ability to take his game to a higher level.

How much wood would a woo… nvm


It could be a lot. It could be a little. It really depends on the chuck-capable woodchuck. Could go either way.

Let’s go right to the source at Basketball-Reference and see how Josh Richardson compared to Jimmy Butler this season:

It’s fitting that these two players were almost traded for each other because there are a lot of similarities in their games and how they help their teams, as you can see by their similarities above in scoring, play-making, limiting turnovers, and efficient shooting at the wing position. Both players are fully capable secondary play-makers that can coordinate offense in stretches when needed, but really excel in situations where they can attack off-ball, as well as in the pick and roll.

Jimmy benefited from the attention that Embiid and Simmons (and now Harris) attract on the offensive end, and it resulted in being the more efficient scorer out of the two. You could even argue Embiid and Simmons’ presence on the defensive end helped Jimmy be more bold defensively, as he had the highest steal and block rates of his career this season. It’s important to keep that into consideration when so often Josh was left with large duties on both the offensive and defensive end on heavy minute loads on a regular basis. I suspect if Josh was in a more favorable environment like Jimmy, those comparables would be even closer.

An Ode to Airplane Mode

Since I didn’t get to mention Derrick at all despite his promising 2nd year with the Heat, I will provide you with a supercut of his most vicious and straight diabolical dunks from this season. Enjoy!

 

Christian Hernandez (@TheMapleRick of @MiaHeatBeat) has peaked, if you were wondering. We just can’t statistically prove it like he could. 

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