The Marlins wasted a promising season

Entering the road series with the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, the Pythagorean theorem had the Miami Marlins at 55-54 and competing for their first ever National League East division title.

Instead, Miami was in last place of the division with a 47-62 record. The Pythagorean theorem predicts a team’s expected record based on the number of runs scored and allowed. Prior to losing 18-1 to the Washington Nationals a month ago, the Marlins had the highest run differential in the division throughout much of the season.

That mathematical system has likely flipped on the Marlins since after being swept by the Rockies in embarrassing fashion. Seeing Sandy Alcantara get tagged for 10 runs on Friday certainly didn’t look good. The most recent prized pitching prospect, Jesus Luzardo, gave up seven runs in less than five innings the next game and what’s left of the bullpen gave up 13 runs in the series finale. 

The main reason why the Pythagorean did not match reality was the amount of close games that did not go Miami’s way. Of their 65 defeats this season, 39 were by two runs or fewer. The Marlins have played 33 one-run games and won only 11. That’s tied with with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the team with the league’s worst record, for most defeats of such nature in baseball.

This feels like a total waste of a promising season especially at a time where the NL East felt the most vulnerable. The division leading Philadelphia Phillies rose to the top on an eight game winning streak but is barely above .500 on the season. The New York Mets long had a flimsy lead and it only took a four-game losing streak to drop all the way to third place. Despite being 18 games below .500, the Marlins are closer to the top (12 GB) than any other last place team in baseball. 

The Marlins were supposed to build off their first playoff appearance and instead wasted a promising season. Not having Sixto Sanchez at all didn’t help but the pitching staff had a top 5 ERA in the NL prior to being victims of Coors Field.

The Marlins made shrewd moves when they added veteran bats like Jesus Aguilar, Starlin Marte and Adam Duvall but they seemed like the sole source of offense for Miami this season. 

Aguilar has been the Marlins best hitter since his acquisition and along with Miguel Rojas, the most consistent and relied on hitter on the team. He currently leads the NL in RBI (79) and along with Rojas — who is the leader of the team years after being a throw-in of a 2014 blockbuster trade that brought over Dee Gordon — are top priorities during the upcoming offseason. 

Duvall was brought to Miami on a reasonable salary to hit 30 home runs and he was living up to his end on the deal prior to being traded back to Atlanta for catching prospect Alex Jackson. The Marlins front office has proven to bring in competent veteran bats to bolster their refreshed pipeline and will be counted on to do it again this offseason. 

The rebuild was a success on the pitching side, but a complete failure on the hitting side. Outside of Jazz Chisholm, there has not been a prospect acquired in a trade since the new ownership whom has had success on the plate. 

A silver lining this season has been the gradual improvement of Lewis Brinson. After spending the first two seasons batting below .200 after being the centerpiece of the infamous Christian Yelich trade — which only happened because the eventual National League MVP wanted to leave — has been batting above the MLB average (.242) at .261 in 45 games. He has been a guy throughout his four years with the Marlins whom has been a disappointment due to his stature as a No. 1 prospect but always a good person from the area that makes you want to root for. 

Trading away the entire starting outfield has given Brinson another opportunity but this time, he’s capitalizing on it. He has one more hit in 51 at-bats after the All-Star Game (.317) than in 68 at-bats prior to the Midsummer Classic. It has been the best stretch of his career without any end in sight. With a .944 OPS during that stretch, he has outperformed everyone who has been slated to replace him. 

It seems like the rest of this season has now been dedicated to monitoring the new prospects brought over in the trades. Jackson has demonstrated plenty of power in the minor leagues and in seven games with the Marlins, two of his four hits have gone yard. Bryan De La Cruz was traded from the Houston Astros for relief pitcher Yimi Garcia and made his big league debut after batting .324 in his first Triple-A season. This season has been an objective disaster for Luzardo (7.36 ERA in 15 games, eight starts) but the 23-year-old prized pitching prospect will be given every opportunity to succeed for his hometown team.

There’s still hope that the 2022 Marlins could feature a starting rotation of Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez, Sanchez, Alcantara and Luzardo and a revamped lineup of veterans and breakout rookies. Nothing short of a playoff series at home will bring fans in LoanDepot Park.

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