The Miami Heat Make Play-In History — Can They Shock the Cavs?

The Miami Heat Make Play-In History — Can They Shock the Cavs?
The Miami Heat became the first 10-seed to advance out of the NBA’s Play-In Tournament, earning the 8-seed and a first-round matchup with the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. This series promises gritty, hard-nosed basketball, as both teams boast top-10 defenses anchored by multiple All-NBA-caliber defenders.

We’ll get Mitchell vs. Mitchell, Bam and Ware vs. Mobley and Allen, Max Strus facing his former team, and the emergence of a budding superstar in Tyler Herro.

Quick Notes:

• If Miami wins this series, it will mark the largest upset in NBA playoff history in terms of win differential between seeds (27 games). The current record is 21, set in 1994 when the Nuggets upset the SuperSonics.

• Miami leads the all-time series 80–53.

• This will be the first playoff meeting between these two franchises.

• The Cavaliers are heavy favorites:
  Odds via FanDuel – Series odds: Cavaliers -4000, Heat +1500.

Now, those odds may look extreme — but they’re not unreasonable. Still, this matchup is closer than the numbers suggest. Here’s how I see the series playing out:

Miami’s Rotation and Matchups

For Miami, I’d like to see Davion Mitchell take Alec Burks’ spot in the starting lineup. That move would give the Heat more perimeter defense from the jump and allow the matchups to look like this:

• Davion Mitchell on Donovan Mitchell

• Tyler Herro on Darius Garland or Max Strus

• Andrew Wiggins on Garland or Strus

• Bam Adebayo on Evan Mobley

• Kel’el Ware on Jarrett Allen

Off the bench, the most important player might be Haywood Highsmith. His defensive versatility was key in Miami’s Play-In victory over Atlanta, and his ability to guard multiple positions will be crucial when Miami needs to rest its starters.

Offensively, Miami will need meaningful contributions from their second unit. Cleveland has five players averaging double figures and a deeper bench overall. That means Miami will have to lean on Duncan Robinson, Alec Burks (if he’s coming off the bench), Highsmith, and maybe even Nikola Jovic to provide a scoring spark. Cleveland’s advantage is depth — but Miami’s advantage is Erik Spoelstra.

That’s no disrespect to Kenny Atkinson, but Spoelstra has done more with less, brought this team back from the dead, and proved time and again why you never count the Heat out.

“It’s Not a Series Until a Team Loses at Home”

The Cavaliers went a dominant 34–7 at home this season and have home court throughout this series. If Miami wants any real shot, they’ll need to steal one in Cleveland and head back to South Beach tied 1–1. Game 1 is the swing game. Take that, and the tone of the entire series changes.

Three Keys for a Miami Upset

1. Avoid the Droughts
   The biggest Achilles’ heel for Miami this season has been offensive inconsistency. The Heat blew a league-high 22 games in which they held double-digit leads, often because of one cold quarter that turned momentum. Against a disciplined, well-coached Cavs team, those lulls will get punished. Miami can’t afford a sub-25-point third quarter or a 2-for-15 shooting stretch — they need to string together four full quarters of competitive basketball.

2. Tyler Herro Has to Be That Guy
   Tyler Herro has blossomed into more than just a scorer — he’s a playmaker, shot-creator, and the engine of this offense. If Miami’s going to pull this off, Herro has to step into the spotlight. Herro was all in the spotlight in the play-in and will have to continue his surge as Miami heads to Cleveland. He’ll see a ton of Donavan Mithcell, Max Strus, and maybe even Evan Mobley on switches, but if he can navigate those matchups and give Miami 25+ a night efficiently, it’ll open up the floor for everyone else.

3. Keep the Frontcourt Battle Close
   Bam Adebayo and rookie Kel’el Ware will have their hands full with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, who anchor Cleveland’s defense and dominate the glass. Miami doesn’t have to win the paint — but they can’t get crushed in it either. If Bam can hold Mobley in check and Ware gives them quality minutes protecting the rim and rebounding, it’ll limit second-chance opportunities and keep Miami in the fight.

Prediction: Heat Push It to Six, But Cavs Advance

Miami will battle. They’ll scrap, claw, and make Cleveland uncomfortable at times — that’s what Spoelstra teams do. Tyler Herro will have moments that make you think, “Maybe they can pull this off,” and Bam will bring his usual defensive brilliance. Expect the Heat to steal at least one on the road and defend their home court once.

But ultimately, Cleveland’s depth and efficiency on both ends of the floor will prove too much. The Cavaliers are elite at limiting mistakes, defending without fouling, and converting their offensive possessions into quality looks. Over the course of a seven-game series, that level of discipline usually wins out.

Cavaliers in 6.