Pressure Point: Tua, Dolphins in position to prove themselves on field, defy doubters

The narrative around Tua Tagovailoa has always been a rush to judgment. Not only in the voices writing him off in his first two seasons with the Miami Dolphins, but even now that the song has changed to a chorus of lavish praise.

The transformation of Tua this season in Mike McDaniel’s offense has been heartening and given long-suffering Dolfans a sense they may finally have a quarterback to lead the team to genuine success.

It has certainly been fun to watch the third-year quarterback leading the most prolific Dolphins offense since Danny Boy was letting it fly to the Marks Brothers.
In just a few weeks Tagovailoa has gone from much-maligned to canonized.

I prefer to withhold assessment until this season’s body of work is complete.

49ers defense formidable adversary

The NFL season doesn’t begin in earnest until Thanksgiving. It is about to get very real for Tua and the Dolphins with a six-pack of treachery standing between them and the playoffs.

The first foray into the gauntlet, Sunday at San Francisco, will give a more telling read on this Dolphins offense than the current five-game winning streak, attained against some of the most porous defenses in the NFL.

They will be up against the top-ranked 49ers defense with a punishing pass rush led by Fort Lauderdale native Nick Bosa, who has 11.5 sacks and was just named the NFC’s Defensive Player of the Month for November. Oh, and the Dolphins are holding out hope that star left tackle Terron Armstead, who strained a pectoral muscle last Sunday, will be available to try to slow him down (he’s listed as doubtful).

The most significant images from the 30-15 win over the lowly Texans were the four rapid-fire sacks of Tua after Brandon Shell took Armstead’s place.

This is not a forecast of doom. The 49ers aren’t infallible, despite allowing only 40 points while winning their past four games. That was preceded by giving up 44 points in a loss to the Chiefs.

Dolphins face tough stretch run

It is cautionary. Miami’s five-game winning streak has come against five sub-.500 teams that are a combined 16-39-1.

The Dolphins’ six remaining opponents are a combined 39-30. Five of them are in playoff position now or contending for a wild-card spot.

The next three are on the road: Sunday at the 7-4 49ers, then at the 6-5 Los Angeles Chargers and at their primary AFC East nemesis, the 9-3 Buffalo Bills.

Only the 4-8 Packers at home on Christmas Day seems like a potential breather.

They finish with a cold-weather visit to New England for New Year’s before the season finale at Hard Rock Stadium against the Jets.

Are these Dolphins worthy of their current lofty status (the No. 2 seed in the AFC before the Bills won on Thursday night)?

Is Tua true to the numbers he’s been putting up the past five games and now ready to lead them in serious championship pursuit?

Heat always on Tua

It doesn’t matter how the talking heads and prognosticators weigh in. The beauty of what the Dolphins have achieved to this point is they will have a chance to answer all the questions on the field.

It starts with the Protege vs. Mentor matchup in McDaniel’s return to San Francisco. Then the Tua vs. Justin Herbert Forever Debate gets an on-field airing. (Remember, Tua and the Dolphins won their previous meeting in 2020).

There will also be two episodes of Whose Weather is Tougher on Division Rivals with the Dolphins’ visits to Buffalo and New England.

Wait till Tua and Tyreek Hill see this….https://t.co/RDOqVLJpEm

— TPS (@TotalProSports) December 2, 2022

For what it’s worth, CBS Sports projects the Dolphins to end up seeded No. 5 as the AFC’s top wild card with the Bills winning the East. That is based on the SportsLine computer simulation of the remainder of the NFL season.

There is no shortage of doubters out there. ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith suggested that the 49ers’ rush is a threat to “fragile” Tua’s health.

Sure, it’s a concern. The onus is on the line — Miami’s offensive line, that is — to protect its quarterback whether Armstead is there or not.

here’s a look at the @miamidolphins FINAL injury report ahead of Sunday’s matchup vs. 49ers

terron armstead is officially ‘doubtful’ pic.twitter.com/HTuz2klVvm

— josh houtz (@houtz) December 2, 2022

Battle to control middle of field

It’s up to Tagovailoa to continue to do what he’s been doing well in going through his progressions quickly and getting the ball to a corps of receivers that has to put fear into any defense.

The intriguing area of focus in Sunday’s game will be the intermediate middle of the field that Tua has exploited so successfully. Defending that area, where middle linebacker Fred Warner roams, happens to be what the 49ers do best.

Next Gen Stats Analyst Keegan Abdoo highlights two telling stats:

“[Tagovailoa] has 38 completions when throwing to the intermediate middle this season, a whopping 16 more than any other quarterback — and that’s despite Tua missing two whole games. [Tyree] Hill and [Jaylen] Waddle’s burst and ability to separate have been key to Tagovailoa’s success in this area, allowing the quarterback to sling it as soon as he hits the back of his drop. …

“Since Warner arrived in San Francisco, opposing quarterbacks have had as much trouble finding affordable real estate as Bay Area residents themselves. The 49ers have allowed just 71 completions to the intermediate middle over the last five seasons, 15 fewer than any other defense.”

So, something has to give Sunday, and that’s the reason for tuning in every week.

Embrace the difficulty of the task ahead. There’s no dodging it anyway.

It’s what Dolfans have been waiting years for, to see their team this relevant in the most vital stretch of a season.

Proof is in the Dec. 11 game against the Chargers being flexed to “Sunday Night Football.” The network sees ratings in Tua vs. Herbert and all the fireworks that promises.

This Dolphins franchise has endured tons of December/January heartbreak in the past. The first 11 games have given reason to believe this season may be different.

The next month and a half will determine whether there will be reason to toast a viable playoff run or face another offseason crying in our beer.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns