Under the Spotlight: Examining Mike McDaniel’s 3-14 Record vs Winning Teams

The Miami Dolphins playoff hopes were dealt a near fatal blow on Thanksgiving night, as they dropped yet another game to a team over .500, losing to Jordan Love and company by a final score of 30-17. Losing to good teams has unfortunately become a calling card for this most recent era of Miami Dolphins football, as former Dolphins Quarterback and Amazon Prime NFL Analyst Ryan Fitzpatrick has noted.

Well, the former QB is technically wrong on one thing, McDaniel is actually 3-14 in such games, but that is immaterial to the substance of the argument. Fitzpatrick is far from the only analyst echoing these sentiments, hell, even most of the fanbase feels this way, but it does encapsulate where most people lay the blame for the Miami Dolphins’ struggles versus the better teams in the league: Head Coach Mike McDaniel. McDaniel himself realizes this, he’s spoken again and again about how narratives will exist until they are bucked and the record says otherwise. At the moment, the 3-14 record says this: The Miami Dolphins are a football team with a limited ceiling due to their inability to play 60 minutes of disciplined, competitive football against the better teams in the league in games that matter. The question then becomes, why are they incapable of this? Is it a coaching issue? Is it a personnel issue? A culture issue? And, if so-what are the prescriptions going forward to remedy this? How can the Miami Dolphins get over this hump? This article takes a deep dive into each game of Mike McDaniel’s 3-14 record versus the better teams in the league to figure this out. 

Week 2, 2022 @ BAL (1-0) W 42-38

The first win versus a winning team in the Mike McDaniel era came in the form of a barnstormer of a comeback for the Miami Dolphins in week 2’s 42-38 victory over the Ravens on the road in 2022. What had looked to be a competitive game early in the second quarter as the teams were knotted up at seven a piece had quickly ballooned to a 28-7 Baltimore lead at halftime courtesy of a couple of early Tua Tagovailoa interceptions, a kickoff return for a touchdown (these will become a theme), and Lamar Jackson shredding the blitz heavy look that had stumped him in Miami the previous season. The third quarter came and went without the Dolphins making any real traction towards putting a dent in the lead as the deficit held at 21, with Baltimore holding a 35-14 lead headed into the fourth quarter. This is where the Tua Tagovailoa breakout begins in earnest, as the Dolphins QB threw for four (!) fourth quarter touchdowns versus a beleaguered Ravens back seven en route to a 28-3 fourth quarter that sealed the win for the Miami Dolphins in Baltimore in stunning fashion. At this point, the McDaniel era was in full honeymoon mode, with the fanbase enamored with Miami’s new quick strike offense in the first year of the Tua-McDaniel partnership. 

Week 3, 2022 vs. Buffalo W 21-19

Ironically, Mike McDaniel’s second victory against a team .500 or better came in his very next game against a team .500 or better, besting the division rival Buffalo Bills in a nail biting 21-19 victory. Although this game is better remembered for Tua’s controversial potential concussion suffered in the second quarter, the Miami Dolphins came out victorious on this steamy September Sunday in Miami. The metrics in this game were rather wacky, as the Bills had doubled Miami in time of possession, and more than doubled Miami’s yardage output, but the Dolphins bend but don’t break defense held the Bills to just a 50% red zone percentage, and Tua Tagovailoa made just enough clutch plays to beat the Bills. This game also was a bit of a flip of the script to the current narrative, as in the South Florida summer heat, the Dolphins appeared to be the tougher, more physical football team in this ball game, bringing McDaniel to a 2-0 record in games vs. teams with winning records. In hindsight, however, there were some red flags about this team in this ball game. The Bills had made costly special teams errors, a missed 38 yard field goal by Tyler Bass proving to be the difference, as well as Head Coach Sean McDermott running a questionable fake spike play at the end of the first half rather than taking a 51 yard field goal attempt. Special teams once again made an appearance in this game, too, for the Dolphins, as the Bills had brought the game back within a field goal on the Dolphins botched endzone punt attempt that went for a safety, the second time in as many games that special teams had directly been responsible for points on the board for the opposition. 

Week 6, 2022 vs. MIN L (24-16)

The first loss of the Mike McDaniel era versus winning teams came in week six of 2022, falling 24-16 to the Minnesota Vikings, unsurprisingly, this loss came with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out of the lineup, although Dolphins QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson played well, especially relative to what we have seen in the McDaniel tenure, as they combined to go 30-47 for 418 yards and two touchdowns to two interceptions. This is another theme in the McDaniel era, specifically in these Tua-less games, a game that could have easily gone the other direction for the Dolphins. The Dolphins outgained and out possessed the Vikings in this ball game, but they lost the turnover battle 3-0, and they were far more penalized, committing ten penalties for 97 yards, a good number of those being offensive procedural penalties, another common thread in games without Tagovailoa at the helm in Miami under McDaniel. The Dolphins had multiple opportunities to come back and win this game after trailing 16-3 mid third quarter, ultimately coming up short in large part to two of the three turnovers occurring in the final 4:14 of the fourth quarter. Two other trends either emerged, or continued in this loss for Miami, as special teams continued to struggle with a missed field goal, and allowing Vikings return man Jalen Reagor to get loose for a 25 yard return, though that had no consequence. Additionally, this game saw Mike McDaniel go for it on 4th and 1 on the Miami 34 in a one score game in the middle of the third quarter. This led to no Vikings points, but in hindsight, echoes familiarly with decisions in losses down the line. For this loss, though, McDaniel largely gets a pass in a game that would likely have been an easy win with Tagovailoa at QB. He falls to 2-1 versus winning teams. 

Week 13, 2022 @ SFO L (33-17)

The second loss against a winning team for McDaniel’s Dolphins came in week 13 of 2022 in a 33-17 loss to former colleague and boss Kyle Shanahan. The Dolphins started this game competitively, with a 75 yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage to former Niner Trent Sherfield. Defensively, the Dolphins started strong in this ball game, stifling Jimmy Garroppolo and company, even knocking the 49ers signal caller out of the game. Enter one Brock Purdy, the little known Mr. Irrelevant at the time, carved the Dolphins defense for the remainder of the game. Offensively, we saw the first sign of the now well known achilles heel of the Dolphins offense with Tua and McDaniel, two high. The Niners kept a lid on the defense, and played their linebackers deep, taking away many of the Dolphins bread and butter concepts away for much of the game. The pass rush was anchored by a dominant Nick Bosa performance to the tune of three sacks, resulting in a pedestrian performance from Tagovailoa plagued by key second half turnovers that helped the Niners seal the game. The Dolphins once again were the less disciplined team in this one, doubling the Niners in overall penalties with eight for 68 yards. The question following this one was how would McDaniel and company counter this adjustment? 

Week 15 @ BUF L (32-29)

The Dolphins next game versus a good team came just a few weeks later in Buffalo, in what would be a convergence of two narratives, versus a good team, and in the cold. Despite the loss, this looked like a game where the Dolphins had answered the call, as they had played Buffalo to a virtual draw in this one, falling to a last second field goal by a final score of 32-29. McDaniel had seemingly taken steps forward, he leaned into the run game to the tune of 25 carries for 188 yards, a popular complaint of McDaniel at the time was that he was all too eager to abandon the run, but in this game he had stuck with it to great effect. The Dolphins defense was wholly incapable of stopping Allen in this ball game, as he had been responsible for 381 yards of total offense and four touchdowns for the Bills, especially in a 4th quarter that had seen Allen and the Bills score 11 unanswered to come back and win the ball game. There was yet another issue for McDaniel’s offense however, short yardage. The Dolphins were 2-7 in converting first downs offensively when they had the ball on 3rd and three yards or less, including once at the goal line where they failed to convert on 2nd and goal from the three, attempting two passes in a row before kicking a field goal. Regardless, this game was seen as legitimate progress for the Dolphins and McDaniel, and fans were convinced he was growing as a Head Coach despite falling to 2-3 versus teams with a winning record. 

2022 Wild Card Round @ BUF L (34-31)

Coach Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins would not have to wait long to get a rematch with the Buffalo Bills, as the two teams met up for the third time in the 2022 season in the wild card round, where the Dolphins could come up just short in an inspired effort, 34-31. The Dolphins offense sputtered with Skylar Thompson at the helm once again, which was as expected in this matchup, what was not expected, however was the performance Josh Boyer’s unit would put together in his swan song as defensive coordinator, as the Dolphins sacked Josh Allen seven times, intercepted him twice, and even forced a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. In a game that the Dolphins had stormed back from a 17-0 deficit to take a 24-20 lead in the middle of the third quarter, there really is not much to be nitpicked from this one, the lone coaching blemish being a delay of game on 4th and 1 near mid field trailing by three with 2:27 remaining, but with a backup quarterback in the game, it’s difficult to say if that was purely on McDaniel. In year one the Dolphins had gone 2-4 versus winning teams, but the two wins at Baltimore and home versus Buffalo were genuinely impressive. Combine that with a close loss at home to a good Vikings team without Tua at QB and two razor thin losses in Orchard Park at the end of the year, and this year was relatively excusable, all in all, especially for a first year head coach. 

2023 Week 4 @ BUF L (48-20)

The Dolphins next “prove it” game came in week four of the 2023 season on the road in Buffalo. The Dolphins were coming off of a 70-20 thrashing of the Denver Broncos, and fans were excited to see another installment of what looked to be a budding rivalry between the Dolphins and Bills following the down to the wire trilogy these teams played in 2022. But in this one, Mike McDaniel and company were completely outcoached and outmatched by the Bills in Buffalo in a 48-20 dismantling. The game had gotten off to a 14-14 start as each team had traded touchdowns throughout the early portion of the game, then came the penalties. There was a veritable parade of procedural penalties on the Dolphins, as they committed eight penalties for 98 yards in this one, including two on their third drive of the game trailing 21-14 that killed the drive, from there, it was all Buffalo. The Bills went on to score ten more points to extend their lead to 31-14 at the half as the Dolphins went three and out and fumbled the football on their final two possessions of the first half. This was a game that was lost following the punt at 14-14 as the Dolphins completely melted down from there with penalties, turnovers and little defensive resistance. This game could be considered as the birth of the “frontrunner” moniker for the Dolphins. 

Week 7 @ Philadelphia L (31-17)

The Dolphins next opportunity to shake off the title of front runner would come in week seven on Sunday Night Football in Philadelphia to face the Eagles. Many of the same boogeymen that haunted the Dolphins in week 4 versus Buffalo showed up against the Eagles. The Dolphins were an undisciplined group once again, committing ten penalties for a total of 70 yards. As far as the play calling is concerned, the Dolphins ran the ball just 12 times in a game that they had trailed by 14 at the most and had even tied up in the third quarter, so gamescript can’t necessarily be used to excuse McDaniel in that aspect. Tagovailoa was pedestrian once again versus better competition, completing 23 of 32 passes for 216 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. The rest of the Dolphins offense doesn’t escape blame, either, as the Dolphins had two touchdowns slip through their grasp via a Lester Cotton holding penalty in the first quarter that resulted in the Dolphins settling for a field goal, and a Tyreek Hill dropped touchdown in the third quarter that would have given the Dolphins offense a needed boost versus a solid Eagles defense. Defensively, the Dolphins defense had a tough time containing AJ Brown as the Eagles number one receiver abused the Dolphins secondary for ten catches, 137 yards and a touchdown. This was yet another game that the Dolphins could have at least had a chance in, had it not been for penalties and missed opportunities for Mike McDaniel’s group as they fell to 2-6 versus teams with winning records. 

2023 Week 9 vs. KC L (21-14)

Week Nine of the 2023 season would see the Dolphins take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany. This was a game that was very much a nightmare start for McDaniel and company. Drops, penalties, and pressure plagued the Dolphins first handful of drives, and while the defense played relatively well, the Dolphins found themselves in an early 14-0 deficit when disaster would strike. Towards the end of the half, as the Dolphins were driving into Kansas City territory, Tyreek Hill would have a pass ripped away from him and returned for a touchdown with 47 seconds remaining to put the Dolphins in a 21-0 hole at the half. The Dolphins would go on to score 14 unanswered in the second half, but ultimately they would come up short in their comeback bid as their final drive stalled out at the Kansas City 31 yard-line. Again, this was an undisciplined performance in which the Dolphins allowed themselves to spiral into a multi score deficit as the Dolphins fell to 2-7 in the Mike McDaniel era versus winning teams. 

2023 Week 16 vs. DAL W (22-20)

The Dolphins third and final victory of the Mike McDaniel era versus winning teams came at home on Christmas Eve of 2023 against the Dallas Cowboys. This was a game in which neither offense was particularly sharp, as the teams were keen to settle for three with both teams combining for seven field goals. The defense however, was disruptive, keeping Tony Pollard and the Cowboys running game in check, and sacking Cowboy Quarterback Dak Prescott four times in the 22-20 victory, allowing Tua Tagovailoa and the offense to orchestrate a game winning drive ending with a Jason Sanders 29-yard field goal. This wasn’t necessarily a game that instilled confidence, as it felt as though neither team played particularly well, but, when playing good teams, even ugly wins come at a premium, and Dallas was 10-4 coming into a pivotal matchup with the Dolphins on Christmas Eve. 

2023 Week 17 @ BAL L (56-19)

Arguably the ugliest loss of the Mike McDaniel era to date, the Ravens 56-19 drubbing of the Miami Dolphins didn’t start out as such. This was a game in which the Dolphins actually led 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, before going on to be embarrased 49-9 for the final three quarters. Once again, this was a game in which the Dolphins offense was stifled by the two high safety look offensively, the most curious development, from a coaching perspective, however was the balance in the offensive gameplan, even in the first half. By the time the Dolphins saw the ball for the first time in the second half, they were already trailing 35-13, surely at that point no one could fault them for abandoning a run game that had seen success in the first half, but that’s not necessarily where it began. On the first two drives of the ballgame, which netted the Dolphins ten points, Miami had called seven passes and six runs, pretty balanced. However, from the Dolphins third drive until the end of the first half, the playcalling changed significantly, with fourteen pass plays being called to just five runs. In the first half, Tua completed 10-21 passes for 154 yards with a touchdown and an interception. In the run game, the Dolphins backfield of Jeff Wilson and De’Von Achane had 91 yards on eleven carries. This isn’t to put the blame on McDaniel for a game in which the Dolphins allowed 56 points, the defense takes the majority of the blame there, but this is to say that the Dolphins curious abandonment of the run game likely kept them from keeping the game respectable. Combine that with abhorrent defense and special teams practically allowing seven by themselves via a 78 yard Justice Hill return to kick off the second half, and you get the worst loss of this era of Dolphins football. 

Week 18 vs. BUF L (21-14)

The next opportunity the Dolphins had to quiet the frontrunner narrative was at home versus the Bills in week 18 in a matchup for the division, the result was a 21-14 loss to Buffalo in a game that was easily winnable for the Dolphins, overall the Dolphins ran for 108 yards on 20 carries, 16 of said 20 carries and 93 of said 108 yards came in the first half. So naturally one would assume that the Dolphins had to be trailing at the half, since they had seemingly dropped the run, right? Wrong. The Dolphins held a touchdown advantage at the half and then ran the ball a total of four times in the second half, just an unacceptable script when playing with a lead against an offense as potentially explosive as the Bills. The other commonality in this game with many others on this list was a special teams blunder, as the Bills tied the game at 14 apiece early in the fourth quarter on a Deonte Harty 96 yard punt return. From there, the Dolphins did what has become expected of them and melted down, the remaining possessions went as follows: Dolphins three and out, Bills TD, Dolphins three and out, Bills turnover on downs, Dolphins interception. In a game where Tua Tagovailoa was far from his sharpest, the Dolphins could ill afford to go away from the run or allow defensive and/or special teams points, and they did both. The result gave them their next game versus a good opponent in a game that was virtually unwinnable before it was played. 

2023 Wild Card Round @KC L (26-7)

This game was a true exercise in futility. The Miami Dolphins were outgunned and outmanned in this game to the tune of being down both starting edge rushers, a starting linebacker, a starting corner, a starting guard, and having both of their star wide receivers running at about 70%. Not to mention the historic cold on that Saturday night in Arrowhead with a temperature of minus four degrees with wind chill that made it feel like a bone chilling -18, the Dolphins did as they are wont to do in cold weather, missing tackles defensively and struggling to find rhythm offensively, once again compounding errors via penalties and, ironically, melting down in the icy conditions. That said, however, there was nothing the Dolphins players or coaches could have reasonably done to win this game, the game was lost when the matchup was set in the aftermath of the Dolphins’ week 18 home loss versus the Bills, so on to 2024 we go. 

2024 Week 2 vs. BUF L (31-10)

The Dolphins first outing versus a good team in 2024 was a painful reminder of still yet how far the team was from contending with those upper echelon teams the NFL has to offer. The Dolphins found themselves behind 24-10 at the half due to some familiar issues in big games, the offense had committed drive killing penalties, and three costly turnovers (two interceptions, one on downs) and the defense was unable to stop the Bills from converting short fields into touchdowns. The interceptions were arguable in terms of fault, as the first pick was tipped off of the shoulder pad of receiver Grant DuBose (who???), and the second one was arguably miscommunication between Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and receiver Robbie Chosen. Personnel issues aside, the offense was able to run the ball somewhat effectively in the first half, however they made costly mistakes that the Bills were able to easily take advantage of and Miami found themselves once again having to dig themselves out of a sizable hole. As a result, QB Tua Tagovailoa put the onus on himself to become the hero, this led to a pick six due to Tagovailoa deciding entirely too late to throw the ball away and then on the ensuing possession, Tagovailoa would dive head first into Bills Safety Demar Hamlin in an attempt to gain a first down, leading to the Dolphins signal caller to go down with his third documented concussion in as many seasons. From there, the wind had just about left the Dolphins sails, as the two teams would seemingly run out the clock in a 31-10 drubbing. 

2024 Week 3 @SEA L (24-3)

The following week would take the Dolphins into the 12th man to visit the Seattle Seahawks with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson under center. This game was a mess riddled with penalties and poor quarterback play, the Dolphins offense seemingly was unable to get out of its own way, and while they had played an inspired game for three quarters, the defense would eventually give way to the Seahawks run game as they would pull away in the fourth quarter and cruise to a 24-3 victory. Really not much to discuss with this game, the backup quarterback situation never gave the team a chance to survive this one in an environment as difficult to play in as Seattle. 

Week 10 @BUF L (30-27)

Look up the word “close” in the dictionary, and this game is liable to pop up. This game very much felt like the Dolphins’ Alamo at 2-5 going into Buffalo and pushing Josh Allen and company to the brink, but in a game where the margins were as thin as a 61 yard field goal, every individual play matters. The metrics on this game for the two teams were about as even as even could be. Both teams had one turnover, converted on 50% of third downs, were 1-1 on fourth downs, and the difference in time of possession was a slim 31:53-28:07 in favor of the Dolphins. Where the Dolphins really were hurt in this game were in a few key areas, firstly, the Dolphins doubled the Bills’ penalty total, eight to four, none bigger than an unnecessary roughness penalty on Dolphins’ Safety, and Bills double agent (?) Jordan Poyer. Additionally, the Dolphins special teams made a costly blunder that directly led to a Bills score when Punter Jake Bailey, on his only punt of the ball game, was only able to muster up a 37 yard punt from the Dolphins 29-yard line that was promptly returned 29 yards to the Dolphins’ 37, putting the Bills in field goal range, and allowing the Bills to get a score on a drive that would have otherwise ended in a punt. While this may seem like nitpicking, these are the margins one deals with in tight NFL games, but this was a game in which the fanbase really had believed perhaps McDaniel turned a corner, the offense looked different on the road in Buffalo, there was no desperate chasing points by going on fourth downs, it seemed like the team was trending positively, overall. 

2024 Week 14 @GB L (30-17)

This was a game that the Dolphins lost within the first quarter of play. After forcing a three and out on the first offensive possession of the game by the Packers, Dolphins rookie receiver Malik Washington muffed the punt inside the Dolphins own 10 yard line,  giving the Packers first and goal, the Packers then promptly score the first touchdown of the game. On the Dolphins first offensive possession they would go on to commit three penalties for a whopping 25 yards, forcing Miami to punt. From there, the Packers offense was a wrecking crew, scoring on the ensuing drive relatively easily and taking control of the game to the tune of a 14-0 lead after one quarter, from there, they would go on to punish the Dolphins defense for the remainder of the ballgame, using their three headed monster of Josh Jacobs, Emmanuel Wilson, and Chris Brooks (!) to run through Dolphins defenders while Jordan Love made big throw after big throw. Offensively, while efficient overall, the Dolphins run game woes coming into this game continued, as they were unable to gain any traction with Achane, Wright or Mostert, and the short yardage woes continued. The Dolphins had two goal to go situations in this game offensively, the results? One field goal, one turnover on downs, also known as 11 points left on the board. Questionable coaching from a decision making perspective as also present, as down 21-3, on fourth and five from the Packers 38-yard line, the Dolphins opted to go for it rather than attempting the field goal to potentially make the game a two possession game going into the half. Instead, the Dolphins attempt to convert and fail, leaving the Packers 25 seconds and three timeouts to go down and get a field goal of their own to take a 24-3 lead into the half, another example of desperation backfiring for this staff when facing a deficit. 

So, what can we take away from all of this? Firstly, the Dolphins have a bad habit of letting issues snowball, too often one thing would happen, and the team would respond by spiraling until they faced a multi score deficit. Secondly, special teams has cost the Dolphins more than one of these games, whether it’s allowing long punt returns, long kick returns, or missing field goals. Third, the Dolphins, specifically on the road, are prone to procedure penalties offensively, which could be a byproduct of taking a complex system on the road into more difficult environments. Finally, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is prone to either forgetting about the run game when ahead, or when behind by one score, there’s often a palpable feel that the Dolphins are pressing when trailing ball games, even ones they are competitive. The defense has been carved up many times in these games, but there has also been more than a fair share of games in which they kept the Dolphins in the game only to give in to attrition and let the game get out of hand, they nearly as culpable as the offense in these spirals after all. And to preempt a response I was certain to see to this article, I took the liberty of taking Tua’s stats from these games, and he can surely be better, too. In 14 games that he was able to play of a possible 17, he was 315-471, good for a completion percentage of 66.7%, 3,553 yards, and 24 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. These numbers are pedestrian by the standards Dolphins fans have been accustomed to with Tua, but far from worthy of the derision that he receives from a large portion of the fanbase. To sum things up, as it stands right now, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s characterization of the Dolphins as frontrunners is as accurate as they come, and it’s up to the Dolphins, and Mike McDaniel, specifically, if he is still around, to change that going forward. 

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Eric Wiedeke is a host on Pulse of Fins Nation and The Final Yard on the Five Reasons YouTube channel.