What’s the Real Value of Miami’s Duncan Robinson?

One of the first orders of business is what to do about 6’7 sharpshooter Duncan Robinson. The third-year man out of Michigan is at the end of his rookie contract that made him an extreme bargain at just $1.6 million last season. The Heat will assuredly offer him a qualifying offer of $4,736,102 this offseason making him a restricted free agent. The question on a lot of minds is what is Robinson’s value and what will his market look like come late summer.

In a year marred by absences for the rest of the roster, Robinson played and started all 72 games for the Heat. He took a small setback in points per game from 2019-2020 from 13.5 to 13.1, but saw considerable dips in other key shooting areas. From last year to this, Robinson’s field goal percentage fell from 47.0 to 43.9, his three-point percentage from 44.6 to 40.8, and his free throws from 93.1 down to 82.7.

Much of those dips can be attributed to a very taxing last calendar year. Many of the league’s star players missed time, felt fatigue, and even the defending-champion Lakers had to play in the play-in games before getting trounced in the first round by the Suns. All that to say, context is important when evaluating anyone this season.

Even despite some falls from the year before, Robinson stacked up very well with other sharpshooters in the NBA. The only guys to average more than Robinson’s 3.5 three-point field goals made per game were Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Buddy Hield, and CJ McCollum. That is pretty great company to keep. Some may read that and figure Robinson is on that list due strictly to being a high-volume shooter. Out of the 15 players who shot at least eight three-pointers per game, only four shot above 40 percent from deep: Curry (42.1), Zach LaVine (41.9), Robinson (40.8), and McCollum (40.2).

Robinson is known across the NBA is an elite shooter, but what goes under-the-radar is his improvement on the defensive end of the floor. Last season, he was third on the Heat (behind Jimmy Butler and Victor Oladipo) in defensive win shares at 0.113, which was also good enough for 35th in the entire association. He also had a defensive rating of 108.3, which was better than guys like Kawhi Leonard, Jrue Holiday, Russell Westbrook, Bam Adebayo, Oladipo, and Draymond Green. That’s not to say he is a better defender than the names listed, rather to prove his value cannot just be limited to his shot.

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So where does that leave Robinson in terms of contract value? I ran through 10 players who for one reason or another drew parallels to Robinson: Joe Ingles, Gary Trent Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr., Davis Bertans, Fred Van Vleet, Devonte’ Graham, Joe Harris, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Evan Fournier, and Malik Beasley. Everyone in the group made at least 2.6 threes per game and shot at least 36 percent from beyond the arc last year. All 11 also average at least 36 percent from three for their careers, as well.

Out of the group, Robinson ranked fourth in three-point percentage last year, and is first on the list for his career. Only Beasley averaged as many threes made per game last year (both at 3.5), with no one coming close to Robinson’s 3.3 per game average for his career. Of course that last part is no surprise as he holds the record for the fastest player to 500 threes in NBA history. His 13.1 ppg in 2020-2021 was only higher than Ingles, Bertans, and Fournier, but his 12.3 for his career is the fourth-highest behind just Fournier, Hardaway Jr., and Graham.

On the defensive side, Ingles had the highest DEF WS ranking of the group at 16, followed by Graham at 24. Robinson’s 35th puts him third, and considerably higher than some on the list. For example: Hardaway Jr. was 202, Fournier 208, Beasley 295, and Trent Jr. all the way at 363.

For comparison sake on salaries, here is each player’s most-recent contract, the year it was signed, and their age when they signed it:

Ingles: Four-year, $52 million signed in 2017 when he was 29, though he has since added a one-year extension to take him through 2021-2022.

Hardaway Jr: Four-year, $70.95 million in 2017 when he was 25.

Bertans: Five-year, $80 million in 2020 when he was 28.

Van Vleet: Four-year, $85 million in 2020 when he was 26.

Harris: Four-year, $75 million in 2020 when he was 29.

Bogdanovic: Four-year, $72 million in 2020 when he was 28.

Fournier: Five-year, $85 million in 2016 when he was 23.

Beasley: Four-year, $60 million in 2020 when he was 24.

Graham (26-years-old) and Trent Jr. (22) are in the same boat as Robinson as their rookie deals are expiring this offseason. That puts all of the other between $13 million and $21.25 per year, with the majority coming around the $17-18 million per annum mark. Robinson is in the middle of the pack at 27 years of age, older than most when coming into his first marquee contract.

That means the reasonable expectation for someone like Robinson should have a floor of around $16 million with a ceiling of a little over $20 million when drawing comparisons. Many have looked to Harris’s deal when he re-signed with the Nets last offseason as a potential barometer. The two are very comparable statistically on offense, with Robinson holding a statistical edge on defense.

Will Miami look to invest that kind of money into Robinson is another question. After going undrafted in 2018, he signed a two-way deal with Miami and the Sioux Falls Skyforce before blossoming into an every-night starter just a year later. Riley & Co. have shown loyalty to its homegrown projects in the past such as Tyler Johnson and to a degree Hassan Whiteside (who started with the Kings before falling into basketball purgatory until making it back to the Skyforce and Heat).

While the others did not work out in Miami’s favor, the front office has been extremely high on Robinson. In the last year, Dan Le Batard said he heard conversations within the organization they believe Robinson’s ceiling could be as high as Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson. When comparing the two, Robinson scored ahead of Thompson in 3PM and 3P% in their last full-season (2020-2021 for Robinson and 2018-2019 for Thompson), and 3PM and 3P% for their careers. Robinson ranks even further in those categories ahead of Thompson when you compare his third and first three seasons against Thompson’s third and first three. Thompson is considered to be an elite wing defender, a leg up over Robinson.

Robinson is still not at Thompson heights to this point, and no one would argue against that, even Duncan himself. What is interesting is his potential, and when or if Miami believes he can reach that point given that he is already 27. Shooters are being paid at a premium as the league evolves, with the former Michigan product figuring to have no shortage of suiters.

Will teams with lots of cap space such as the Knicks, Spurs, or Mavericks come calling? Four of the names on the list, including Fournier, Hardaway Jr., Graham, and Trent Jr. will all be on the market this summer to one degree or another. Will one sign first then set the market for the others? Does giving Robinson a healthy extension preclude Miami from long-term flexibility, something that is always at a premium in that front office?

All of that will be answered later this summer as Riley and Elisburg decide just how much Miami runs on Duncan.

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